According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from May 19th to 23rd (as of 10:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market fell from 2362 yuan/ton to 2303 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.49% during the period, a month on month drop of 5.20%, and a year-on-year drop of 16.48%. The domestic methanol market is mainly experiencing a decline. From a fundamental perspective, due to the expectation of increasing supply and inventory, the market is strongly suppressed and lacks confidence. Therefore, although downstream external procurement and downstream equipment start-up have provided some support to the market, the current support is weak, and the domestic methanol market is under pressure to decline.

As of the close on May 23rd, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2509 for methanol futures opened at 2266 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2270 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2240 yuan/ton. It closed at 2241 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 1.10% from the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume is 529804 lots, the position is 773662 lots, and the daily increase is 22183 lots.
In terms of cost, the thermal coal market has been operating weakly and steadily recently. Most coal mines in the main production area maintain normal production pace, and the market coal supply is still at a high level. The cost of methanol is influenced by negative factors.
Demand side, downstream acetic acid: acetic acid demand may decrease; Downstream chloride: reduced demand for chloride; MTBE、 The formaldehyde and dimethyl ether industries currently have no clear plans for starting, stopping, or reducing their load, and there is little fluctuation in demand for methanol. The majority of downstream demand for methanol has decreased, and the demand for methanol is influenced by unfavorable factors.
On the supply side, the overall loss of equipment exceeds the recovery amount, and the utilization rate of production capacity decreases. The supply of methanol is affected by favorable factors.
In terms of external trading, as of the close on May 22, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $327.50-328.50 per ton, a decrease of $4 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market was 80.00-81.00 cents/gallon, down 2 cents/gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 230.50-231.50 euros/ton, down 13 euros/ton.
In the future forecast, overall construction will maintain high fluctuations, and the arrival of foreign ships in coastal areas will gradually increase. Port inventory may gradually enter the accumulation channel. Traditional downstream demand continues to be weak. Business Society’s methanol analyst predicts that the domestic methanol spot market is mainly weak.