Analysis: This week (8.18-22), the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region was sluggish, with prices continuing the downward trend from last week and the decline slowing down compared to last week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the main production area of Shandong experienced a weekly decline of 0.72%. The main reason is that the supply pressure is difficult to alleviate, and the market inventory is too high. The maintenance equipment is partially in operation, and the supply side is loose. In addition, many manufacturers have increased their ammonia conversion capacity, and the accumulation of liquid ammonia continues to put pressure on the manufacturers. Manufacturers’ prices have gradually loosened during the week, and as the weekend approaches, the overall decline in prices for major factories in Shandong is around 100 yuan. Distributors mainly underreport shipments. And downstream procurement enthusiasm is not high, agricultural demand is still in the off-season, industrial demand remains rigid, and the overall demand side is bearish. At present, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is 2250-2400 yuan/ton.

Prediction: In the near future, the operating rate of compound fertilizers downstream of liquid ammonia is relatively low, and the recovery of phosphate fertilizer operation is limited, further limiting the demand for liquid ammonia. Mainly follow up on agricultural and industrial demand. There will be little change in future supply, with manufacturers starting and stopping production, and the main focus will be on maintaining a balanced supply of ammonia. It is expected that liquid ammonia will continue to maintain a weak and volatile market.