After the holiday, the domestic price of liquid ammonia mainly stopped rising and fell. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province fell by 0.45% this week (10.13-17). The main reason is the stable amount of ammonia and the impact of rainy weather in the north, which has led to a continuous delay in agricultural demand and weak procurement from downstream factories. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is between 2180-2250 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the supply has remained reasonably balanced this week, with no decrease in liquid ammonia production in Shandong and Hebei regions, and an increase in ammonia conversion by some enterprises in Henan region. However, there are short-term maintenance of facilities in the northwest, Inner Mongolia, and Ningxia regions, resulting in reduced production and overall tight supply, with slight regional differentiation. From the beginning of the week to the middle of the week, some enterprises in Shandong region have made downward adjustments, but the magnitude is not significant. The price adjustment range of large factories in Shandong region is generally between 50-100 yuan, and the market shows a basic balance between supply and demand. However, enterprises still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage, and the supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side, downstream demand has shown lukewarm performance, with compound fertilizer operating rates still at a low level and phosphorus fertilizer prices continuing to decline, resulting in relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has been stable, and the price has slightly rebounded within the week. However, the price has not continued to rise near the weekend. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly increase of urea is 0.64%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week. Although there may be a slight decline in production in some areas in the short term, it is difficult to establish an upward trend. The main reason is that agricultural demand has not shown any improvement at present. In addition, next week’s meeting may have a negative impact on transportation, and the ammonia market may not improve. The upward space is very limited.