in early 3, in the upper reaches of the rebound in crude oil, the downstream demand is good and the periphery of rising commodity multiple positive, PTA futures prices quickly pull up, PTA main 1605 contract from 4400 yuan / ton quickly shot up to 4800 yuan / ton, after keeping high oscillation. The recent rebound in PTA weakened, or stage of adjustment, but before May PTA fundamentals better, the price may be up there.

Short term rebound strength is weakened

After the Spring Festival, polyester plant and downstream terminal textile industry operating rate rose steadily, and the work speed is better than the same period last year, the superposition of the rebound in crude oil price was positive, PTA fast recovery. However, the downstream enterprises stocking just need to give priority to, the lack of speculative demand, coupled with the new PTA device operation, old device maintenance and less fatigue soft spot sales, inventory accumulation, the continued rise in the number of visible warehouse. As of March 18th, PTA warehouse and warehouse effectively forecast total from the beginning of the 3 53 thousand around to 100 thousand or more spot volume of more than 50 million tons to bring greater pressure on contracts in recent months. At the same time, there are signs of weakening crude oil prices will also bring a drag on the PTA market. Therefore, the recent PTA price upward momentum weakened, or even possible callback.

The traditional peak demand season

In May 4, PTA will enter the peak season demand, the downstream market will remain stable and good posture. Over the years from the polyester plant operating rate data, March for polyester operating rates rapid recovery period, April rate rise slowed, operating rates remain high in May, June after the start rate will turn down. Therefore, before May, the rigid demand of PTA polyester will limit the decline in the price of space PTA.

March polyester product inventory will decrease as the textile enterprises demand rebounded in May 4, polyester products tend to lower the level of annual inventory. From last year’s performance, although for textile and apparel textile enterprises stock market performance in general, caution leads to speculative demand for polyester polyester weakened, but also consumption season short action led to the rapid decline in polyester stockpile inventory, and even some enterprises appear oversold phenomenon. Once the product inventory polyester enterprises to low, the enthusiasm of enterprises will be stocking PTA raw materials increase, causing the rapid recovery of industrial chain from top to bottom.

Data show that the current domestic PTA production capacity of 49 million 90 thousand tons, including 13 million tons of production capacity in the long-term production status. On this basis, even if the other device for full load operation, the operating rate of PTA up to 73.3%, but the actual operation of the device to PTA continuous full load operation. At present, the two PTA parking device hangbang, Ningbo Taiwan PTA 4 early detection device repair, PTA operating rate was 67.38%. Therefore, the market outlook once the speculative demand, the price on the existence of power PTA.

PTA is the cost of support

This year our country does not have the new PX device put into operation, the high degree of domestic PX import dependence. For the two quarter PX unit overhaul peak, according to preliminary statistics, the two quarter plans to overhaul the PX production capacity of up to 4 million 500 thousand tons (1 million 600 thousand tons of dragon aromatics without considering parking capacity), was significantly higher than that of last year overhaul efforts. Expected in the two quarter PX supply and demand tightening will boost prices for PTA. The short term, PTA because the demand side picked up the good has been fulfilled, but still expected to pick up momentum PTA price before May.

To sum up, in a huge warehouse and the pressure of new production capacity under the PTA price rebound weakened, even short-term pullback. But from the middle point of view, the traditional PTA demand season, rigid demand will limit the decline in the price of PTA space, and PX device will bring PTA centralized maintenance support cost. Taking into account the PTA yield promotion space is limited, once the polyester sales rebound, power enterprise investment machine of increased demand will bring up to PTA, but more than a single midline should be wary of systemic risk impact.