In 2016, food prices are not ideal, the farmers’ enthusiasm to reduce. However, the chemical fertilizer stored for the winter season, the market is “up” a sound: urea and compound fertilizer rose rose. What is the reason from this “boom”? Up to what time? The dealer Dongchu enthusiasm affected?

Only 30% years of winter reserves

According to recent years, winter has been tepid. However, this year the market is somewhat strange. 2016 national day, urea prices change the flagging, sharply higher. Taking Anhui Province as an example, as of November 18th, the province of urea mainstream price 1520~1560 yuan / ton, individual urea manufacturers to a large amount of orders, control orders. Comparison of August prices have risen 200~300 yuan per ton. The rise of the big, fast speed, it is be struck dumb.

This round of urea prices, allegedly coal prices have increased the cost. I understand that the urea production raw coal from the beginning of 300 yuan / ton rose to the current 600 yuan / ton, coal prices have boosted the price of urea; at the same time, in September 21st this year launched the “transportation vehicle management regulations”, limiting the truck weight, freight fertilizer also increased a lot. In the urea prices rose driven, phosphate fertilizer and potash fertilizer have to rise.

This urea compound fertilizer over the off-season counter attack soaring, winter storage but it started very slowly. According to the usual practice, after the phosphate fertilizer fertilizer market immediately into the winter period of fertilizer reserves this year, according to my understanding, the transaction is still in the flat period of compound fertilizer.

At present, the country, around the winter storage is still uncertain price. The introduction of a compound fertilizer enterprises winter storage price mainly concentrated in Anhui, Shandong, Hubei, Hunan, Jiangsu and other places, 45% chlorine based compound fertilizer individual provisional winter storage factory price in 1650~1820 yuan / ton, 45% sulfur compound fertilizer individual provisional winter storage factory price in 1830~1930 yuan / ton, Shandong area of high-end price in the 2050 yuan / ton, some enterprises have money interest policy.

Overall, the whole winter reserve fertilizer only in 20%~30%.

Dealers are more cautious than usual

In the past, winter spring fertilizer than the purchase price to about 10% cheaper. But in recent years due to fluctuations in the price of fertilizer is too big, a lot of agricultural business in the winter did not benefit but a loss, which makes them suspicious of winter. Especially in the face of urea prices rose this year, dealers are facing many winter storage is relatively cautious.

“Now the agricultural business is difficult to do, the crop harvest is not good this year, spring, late spring coldness of high temperature and drought in summer, many farmers lack confidence in the investment in agricultural farming, reduce the number of.” Gao Jie Anhui province Suixi qijizhen agricultural business said that the past 3 months to prepare fertilizer prepared with some goods every month. But this year he still wanted to “halt the troops and wait, wait for some time. “In August compared to the manufacturers price, the price is up to now a bag of 10 dollars. This price is too deficient, I wait!” Gao Jie said.

I found that some manufacturers have felt the negative stocking distributor, they also began to take the initiative to cut production, raise prices, sell less amount more profits to prepare for winter storage. The majority of compound fertilizer enterprises receivables is not ideal, operating rates rise slowly, the overall operating rate remained at about 43%.

The market outlook still up space

Then, the late urea have room to rise? According to the national development and Reform Commission data show that 1~9 months, the national coal production of 24.6 tons, down 10.5%.” In November 3rd, the Bohai thermal coal price index closed at 607 yuan / ton, the highest on record since the beginning of this year, compared with the beginning of 371 yuan / ton, up 236 yuan / ton. According to the consumption of coal per ton of coal based urea for 1.55 tons, which means that from the beginning of the year so far, only a coal, urea enterprise cost rose 365.8 yuan / ton.

In the short term, because the price of coal market is still strong, in addition to fertilizer, raw material prices, and rising freight costs, environmental transformation, years ago, urea prices remain high probability.