According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 9716 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 16, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 9550 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 166 yuan / ton, or 1.75%. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 98733 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 983 yuan / ton, Up 11.26 percent

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that last week, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market rose and operated under the support of tight supply in the market. In this week, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still small, and the confidence of the industry is good. At the beginning of the week (17th), the offer price of Dimethyl Carbonate Factory mostly remained high and firm. The commencement of a plant in Shandong was delayed, and the plant in Zhejiang is also temporarily and stably started. The on-site supply remains tight, and the orders of some factories have been pre sold after the festival, The pre-sale of orders well supported the confidence of the industry. In the middle of the week (18th), dimethyl carbonate factories in Anhui and Shandong raised the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, as of 18th, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong was around 9500-9800 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Anhui was around 9700-9800 yuan / ton, The average domestic price is 9716 yuan / ton, up 1.75% this week and 11.26% this month. At present, the downstream demand for goods preparation has gradually weakened, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is mild.

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on January 17 was 168.53, the same as yesterday, down 32.59% from the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 68.53% from the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

For the upstream propylene oxide, at the beginning of this week, the domestic propylene oxide Market stabilized after a slight correction. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 18, the average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11100 yuan / ton. Compared with last weekend, the average price was increased by 200 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.83% during the week. Compared with the beginning of this month, the price was basically the same.

On the upstream side of dimethyl ether, in the middle of January, dimethyl ether ushered in a sharp decline, and the early increase was basically reversed. Only one weekend, the dimethyl ether market fell sharply, and the price on the 17th was still weak. Although the international crude oil price rose slightly, it brought limited support to the market. The weakening of the civil market price of liquefied gas brought some bad news to the market. The cost methanol market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range, and the market lacks obvious benefits. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, the mentality is cautious, and it is mainly wait-and-see. Henan market fell back to 3600 yuan / ton over the weekend, and Hebei and Shandong also followed the downward trend, falling back below 4000 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream goods preparation is coming to an end, and the logistics and transportation will also be shut down. The DMC data division of business society believes that it is expected that before the festival, the domestic DMC market will have limited fluctuations, mainly narrow adjustments, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in consumer interest on the supply and demand side.

DOTP prices rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price rose this week, and the overall DOTP market rose. As of January 17, the price of DOTP was 10500 yuan / ton, up 4.22% from 10075 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the DOTP price of 9775 yuan / ton on January 1, an increase of 7.42%%; This week, customers prepared goods actively during the Spring Festival, and the demand for DOTP increased, stimulating the rise of DOTP price.

The price of isooctanol rose sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol in China rose sharply this week, up 5.68%. Customers are actively preparing goods before the Spring Festival, the demand rises, and the price of isooctanol rises sharply. The price of isooctanol rose sharply and the cost of plasticizer DOTP rose. With the basic end of goods preparation for the Spring Festival, the transaction of isooctanol stabilized. In the future, the price rise of isooctanol slowed down and the rising power of DOTP weakened.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, PTA prices fluctuated and rose this week. PTA prices continued the previous rise this week. Affected by the rise of crude oil prices, PTA prices follow the rise. On the demand side, PTA is still in the off-season, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. The space for PTA price rise is limited, mainly PTA price consolidation in the future. Limited benefits to DOTP.

PVC market shock rebound

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 17, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 8330 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the PVC price of 8320 yuan / ton on January 1, it rose by 0.24%. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger, and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the rigid demand is reduced; The overall demand for plasticizers is insufficient. During the Spring Festival, PVC related manufacturers may have holidays in advance. In the future, the demand for DOTP is expected to decline, and the bad DOTP market still exists.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, DOTP prices rose this week due to the rise in the prices of raw materials isooctanol and PTA and the Spring Festival stock of downstream customers. This week, customers are actively preparing goods for the Spring Festival, actively purchasing just in need for a short time, and DOTP prices have risen sharply. In the aftermarket, the rising power of raw materials still exists. In the off-season of downstream demand, with the end of Spring Festival stock preparation, the rising support weakens, the rising power of DOTP is insufficient, and the downward pressure increases. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise first and then stabilize in the aftermarket.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1166.67 yuan / ton, down 0.57%. The current price fell by 10.71% month on month, and the current price rose by 10.76% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

This week, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell steadily. It can be seen from the above figure that after formaldehyde fell for three consecutive months, the price was weak and consolidated, and the decline was slightly slow. As of January 14, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1120-1200 yuan / ton. Two formaldehyde units with an annual output of 120000 tons of Qingzhou Hengxing Chemical Co., Ltd. are shut down for maintenance. Recently, the start-up of formaldehyde enterprises is at a low level, the shipment situation is general, the on-site inventory is low, and the market is slightly lower.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of January 14:

Region, Price

East China 1220-1230 yuan / ton

North China 1200 yuan / ton

Central China 1280 yuan / ton

Northwest China 1150 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the average price of methanol production enterprises in the near future is 2402 yuan / ton. International oil prices continued to rise and the trading atmosphere in the mainland improved. In the northwest part, the selling price is low, and the shipment of enterprises is temporarily acceptable, but the freight is high. Traders operate with caution, and some downstream enterprises have acceptable raw material inventory, mainly purchasing on demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. Methanol market is weak and cannot support formaldehyde market.

This week, the environmental protection control in Linyi area was temporarily lifted, but the Spring Festival was approaching, some plate factories stopped work and had holidays. Although the other part started work normally, the demand was general, bargain hunting, more wait-and-see mood, the market trading atmosphere was weak, the shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers was general, and the market fell slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society expects that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

In 2021, the average price of domestic 1# antimony ingot Market was 42625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 74750 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 75.37%.

On December 31, the antimony commodity index was 103.71, down 7.45% from the highest point of 112.06 in the cycle (2021-11-04), and up 120.75% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

According to the trend chart of antimony ingot Market in 2021, the antimony ingot Market is basically divided into three fluctuation cycles in 21 years.

First cycle: rising period at the beginning of the year (January to March 2021): in the first quarter, the domestic antimony ingot market price continued the trend of years ago, mainly high and stable. Since the middle of 20 years, affected by foreign public health events, the mine end supply has been in a tight state. Under the continuous tight state of domestic supply, some antimony ingot manufacturers have suspended export sales. This month, as the external price continued to rise, the market sentiment was further driven. In the middle of the year, due to the transportation restrictions caused by domestic public health events, downstream manufacturers increased the procurement of antimony ingots and antimony oxide in order to ensure the production demand, which further exacerbated the reluctance of domestic manufacturers to sell when the market circulation source was already small. Most domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have production reduction plans to varying degrees. With multiple positive blessings, prices rose sharply in the short term.

The second stage: consolidation and decline period (from March to the end of June 2021): the trend of the domestic antimony ingot Market rose all the way in the first ten days of March, and the market returned to stability after the middle and late ten days. After entering the middle and late ten days, the price in the early stage rose sharply, some downstream prepared goods in advance, digested some downstream demand, and the market as a whole was in a state of relatively cold trading. Moreover, the price of antimony ingot has been at a high level in recent ten years, both buyers and sellers are waiting and watching, the market game mentality is strong, and the price is adjusted at a high level. After entering April, the price began to loosen, and some were traded at low prices. Although Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places had good news of the entry of the environmental protection supervision team in the same period, it was difficult to resist the impact of downstream demand, and the price of antimony ingots entered the downward channel. In May, with the withdrawal of the environmental protection supervision team, enterprises in Hunan resumed construction one after another, and the market supply recovered compared with the early stage, but the downstream demand still did not improve. Immediately enter the off-season of traditional industries in the second quarter, the downstream demand will continue to shrink, and the market mentality is generally weak. The supply and demand sides are still deadlocked, the downstream purchase intention remains depressed, and the market price is temporarily stable after the decline.

Stage III: shock rising period (July 2021 to the end of December 2021): the price of antimony ingots began to fluctuate upward in early July. Although the price rose in the first half of the month, the overall range was limited. Affected by the low intention of downstream receiving goods, the overall market turnover was limited, the ex factory price was strong, and the game mentality of both sides was strong. In the second half of the month, it is reported that the import of antimony ore will be limited in the next half of the year, and the duration may be up to the end of 21. Driven by the tight expectation of raw materials, enterprises’ intention to raise prices is rising. In order to cope with the shortage of raw materials, domestic manufacturers began to raise the ex factory price of antimony ingots, so as to alleviate the problem of insufficient domestic supply. The factory price of the smelter is strong, the price mentality is still high, and some manufacturers still sell in limited quantities. With the rising price, the downstream always has low intention to receive goods, the overall transaction situation of the market is poor, the wait-and-see mood of both supply and demand sides is very strong, the market price is high, and the game mentality of both sides is becoming stronger and stronger.

After entering November, although the market is still short of supply, some enterprises began to reduce prices due to the demand for returned funds. Some low-cost goods were put on the market and there were certain transactions in the market. This part of getting married once again affects the market mentality. Since the price of antimony ingots has reached a high level, the downstream market has entered on-demand procurement, and the inventory has maintained a reasonable range. Most enterprises mainly consume the early procurement inventory. The depressed demand in the downstream once again affects the market mentality. Under the herd mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market further declines, and the market gradually enters the downward channel. However, at present, the price of antimony ingot is still in a historically high range, and a reasonable correction is also in line with the general law of the market. After the correction, the supply and demand situation entered a state of weak balance between supply and demand, and the price of antimony ingot has been fluctuating at a high level.

It can also be seen from the above comparison chart of price trend from 2017 to 2021 that the price of antimony ingot is at a historical high and enters the shock consolidation cycle after November.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the antimony ingot Market rose for nine months in 2021, and only declined for three months. The largest monthly increase occurred in March, with a monthly increase of 21.76%. The biggest decline occurred in May, with a monthly decline of 14.45%.

In the future, after November, the antimony ingot market fell into a game again, the overall transaction was cold, and the downstream continued to maintain a strong wait-and-see mood. The market is in a weak balance between supply and demand. As of the 31st, the domestic market 2# antimony ingot was 74000 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot 75000 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingot 77000 yuan / ton. At present, the external price continues to be adjusted at a high level, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the future market is still strong, and the overall price of antimony ingot is still at a high level. Under the expectation that there is no significant change in supply and demand, the market price is expected to remain at a high level.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of January 10, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 16566.67 yuan / ton. The price increased by 3.54% compared with last Monday (January 3), 2.69% compared with December 1, and decreased by 21.86% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market rose this week. Recently, the raw material propylene has operated smoothly after the rise, the glycerol market is OK, and there is a certain support on the cost side. Some enterprises reduce the load and stop, and the cargo holders maintain long-term contracts and core customers. The spot supply in the market is tight, the downstream inquiry and procurement are active, the focus of market negotiation has risen steadily, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose strongly this week (1.3-1.7). At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7548 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7850 yuan / ton, an increase of 4%.

Downstream epoxy resin, supported by dual raw materials on January 7, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China continued to rise, reaching 26800-27800 yuan / ton. Raw material bisphenol A operated stably at a high level. Supported by the cost side, the transaction of small orders in the venue was at a high level, with an offer of 18450-18500. Cyclic chlorine continued to rise, up 3.33% this week.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business society, the current cost side has little impact, and there is still some support from the short-term supply and demand side. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

At the beginning of 2022, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a good start. The price rose sharply after the new year’s day, and the price of civil gas in Shandong rose above 5500 yuan. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5090.00 yuan / ton on January 3 and 5640.00 yuan / ton on January 10, with an increase of 10.81% and 43.20% compared with the same period last year.

As of January 10, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

region ., Mainstream quotation

North China 5200-5500 yuan / ton

East China 5550-5750 yuan / ton

South China 5600-5800 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5500-5900 yuan / ton

In January, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a collective rise. Shandong region generally pushed up sharply, with an obvious range. As of January 10, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 5500 yuan / ton. The good start of the market is mainly driven by international crude oil. The continuous rise of international crude oil after new year’s day has brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price was introduced in January. Although propylene butane fell, the decline was less than expected, which also gave a certain boost to the domestic market. In addition, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the prices rise one after another.

The recent sharp rise of LPG futures market has also brought obvious benefits to the spot market. On January 10, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2202 was 5110, the highest price was 5119, the lowest price was 4967, the closing price was 5037, the former settlement price was 5010, the settlement price was 5036, up 27, or 0.53%, the trading volume was 178485, the position was 59134, and the daily position was increased by – 3938. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil price has fallen, which has brought limited support to the market. With the end of replenishment in the downstream, most of them are delisted and wait-and-see. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market has significantly weakened compared with that in the early stage. On the 10th, the domestic liquefied gas market has risen and fell, and some regions have replenishment operations. However, the price in Shandong has decreased. It is expected that there will be some resistance to the rise of civil gas price in Shandong in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 10133.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10766.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.25%, down 2.71% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly this week and showed a downward trend over the weekend. On January 9, the isooctanol commodity index was 79.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.42% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 125.23% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 10700 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 10900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7548.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7850.80 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.00%, an increase of 7.21% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. DOP price rose from 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.12%, an increase of 3.53% over the same period last year., There is still a downward trend over the weekend. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid and late January, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. Upstream propylene rose slightly and cost support strengthened, but downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand showed no signs of improvement. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the isooctanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly in the middle and late January.

Acetic anhydride prices fell after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell after the festival. As of January 7, the price of acetic anhydride was 9925 yuan / ton, down 4.11% from 10350 yuan / ton on January 1. The cost fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell weakly.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 2.10% after the festival, the price of acetic acid fell after the festival, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

Business community acetic anhydride data analysts believe that the price of acetic acid fell after the festival, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly after the festival. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is general, the price of acetic acid decreases, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreases. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated higher this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1245.35/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1257.00/t, an increase of 0.94%. The current price increased by 7.32% month on month, and the current price increased by 23.36% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 5th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1016-1026 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 5th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1554-1563 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $14037-1445 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose sharply, up $143 / ton in a single day. As of the 5th, the price was 893-911 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to rise as a whole, mainly due to the good demand for ethylene in Europe and America, which led to the rise of the overall ethylene market.

International: on January 5, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $77.85/barrel, up US $0.86 or 1.1%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.80/barrel, up US $0.80 or 1.0%. The oil price rose to the highest level in the last two months, mainly due to the implementation of the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the relatively conservative policy is in line with market expectations, and investors believe that the mutant virus (Omicron) has a relatively mild impact on the economy.

The styrene market continues to rise recently. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 8530.00 yuan / ton, and the price of styrene market increased. The price of pure benzene remained stable, and the support of raw materials was still strong. The position of night futures decreased. The port inventory continued to be low, the domestic short-term spot was still tight, and the production enterprises generally increased at the beginning of the month. The styrene price in Shandong was around 8450-8500 yuan / ton. The high price of styrene can support the price of ethylene.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the U.S. crude oil inventory continues to decline and the market is bullish, so the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11100.00 yuan / ton, down 23.97% compared with that on December 1, and 35.96% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market fell sharply in December. In the first ten days, the price of raw propylene fell first and then rose, with little impact on the cost side. The factory inventory was low, supporting the price. The demand side was cold and cautious, and the market was in a stalemate. In the middle of the year, the raw material propylene operated weakly, the cost support weakened, the factory inventory increased slowly, the downstream demand was cold, and the bearish mood was strong. With the decline of price, the factory shipment improved and the inventory was gradually digested, but the downstream follow-up was relatively general, the market continued to be stable and wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere was flat. In the last ten days of the year, the downstream purchase reduction followed up, the factory inventory was under pressure, and the propylene oxide Market decreased steadily. With the rise of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the downstream purchase increased, and the factory’s short-term shipment improved, but the terminal was mostly cautious. On the 30th, the price decreased again under the pressure of factory inventory, On the 30th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10650-10800 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 29, the reference price of propylene was 7544.60, a decrease of 0.01% compared with December 1 (7545.50). On the 29th, the trend of propylene (Shandong) was stable and small, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7550-7600 yuan / ton. The crude oil fluctuated upward, and the propylene price increased compared with that of last week under the boost of cost. However, the recent horizontal consolidation of mainstream downstream polypropylene made it difficult to significantly improve the propylene procurement.

On December 29, the reference price of downstream propylene glycol was 16833.33, a decrease of 6.13% compared with December 1 (17933.33).

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost side has certain support, the factory inventory is under pressure, the market atmosphere is weak, and the cautious wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 67125 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 63142.86 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 20.83%, and the price increased by 59.43% compared with the same period last year. On December 30, the bromine commodity index was 186.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.95% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 216.48% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is weak. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 49000-53000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is down as a whole this month. At present, the inventory of domestic bromine enterprises is low and they are not in a hurry to ship. At present, the operation of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is low, which is in conflict with high price bromine and mainly focuses on multi-dimensional rigid demand. Supply and demand play a game.

Raw materials: sulfur prices rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 2000 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 2026.67 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.33%. There is no inventory pressure on refinery enterprises in various regions, and the market trading is OK. The enthusiasm of downstream sulfuric acid to enter the market for procurement is general, the market demand for liquid sulfur is weak, and the market demand for phosphate fertilizer has increased. In the future, we will wait and see the consolidation of the sulfur market and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow. Now the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to the high price of bromine, mainly purchasing on demand, and the downstream support for bromine is insufficient. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

In 2021, the domestic PA66 market increased greatly. The data in the bulk data list of business society showed that most plastic products developed well this year, and even the price range of PA66 frequently exceeded the 40000 yuan mark. As of December 31, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 36500 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.15% over the price level at the beginning of the year. This year, the world is still affected by health events and the systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, while domestic adiponitrile production lines have not been delivered, and the pattern of high dependence on import of PA66 raw materials has not been improved. The high price of upstream raw materials is superimposed on the macroeconomic situation, which is biased towards inflation. Behind the sharp rise in PA66 spot price, we can’t help feeling the pressure from many aspects.

quotations analysis

After the market situation last year, PA66 felt the boost from the raw material end at the beginning of 2021. The adipic acid market ended in January, and the downward trend picked up. Most dealers reported tentative high prices, and generally rose in East and South China. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream before the festival, the pressure at the supply end is generally controllable. In February, uncontrollable overseas factors such as the low temperature disaster in the United States continued to affect, and many enterprises such as crude oil and chemical industry stopped production, and the devices were frequently overhauled. Among them, NVIDIA, an international manufacturer of PA66 and its industrial chain related products, has two adiponitrile and two hexanediamine plants in Texas, USA, which are seriously affected by the cold disaster. There is also the oshengde plant in Alabama, and its adiponitrile and hexanediamine plants have also declared force majeure. According to industry estimates, the above plants alone account for 65% and 50% of the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine. The production capacity loss caused by this disastrous weather has made the global supply of PA66 raw materials “frost and snow” into a very severe situation, and also laid the main tone of PA66 market in 2021. In the first quarter, PA66 enterprises and businesses frequently sent price increase letters, the production unit was under low load, and the restart time was uncertain. In terms of supply of PA66, the shipment is insufficient. The production of domestic polymerization plants is mainly used to meet contract orders. It is almost difficult to find any goods outside the main customers, and the domestic spot price is rising.

In the early part of the second quarter, the market has soared, and the price of adipic acid in the upstream fell back from the high level and fluctuated downward after experiencing the top building market. At the same time, adipic acid has gradually entered the off-season, the delivery speed has decreased significantly, the inventory pressure of enterprises has increased, and it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce prices and destock. Under the influence of increased supply pressure and relatively weak demand, prices lost support and gradually fell. Although the heat of upstream raw materials has cooled, the support for PA66 cost has been weakened. However, the decline of PA66 market in the second quarter is also one of the main factors that drag down the market. Due to the continuous high cost level, the overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry has stabilized to about half. Although the enterprise has no pressure on inventory, its profit margin is limited, and its production and shipment mainly meet the early orders. The transfer of cost pressure to the downstream makes end users complain incessantly, and the purchase strategy is more cautious. In terms of trading, the market mostly takes goods with small orders, and the reduction of trading power has caused price fluctuations in the market to a certain extent.

In the third quarter, it undertook the high callback market in the second quarter. Due to the sharp rise in the price of far-end raw material pure benzene, the price of adipic acid stopped falling and rising in early July. When the adipic acid market was stable, adiponitrile started again in late August. Due to the high degree of dependence on imports, large international manufacturers claimed to lose production capacity due to force majeure in the medium and long term. The recent shortage pattern of adiponitrile was prominent and the price rose. However, in the third quarter, PA66 market was indifferent to the upstream support feedback, and the market basically maintained the medium and long-term pattern of weak supply and demand, with obvious market characteristics in the off-season. In the whole third quarter, the overall load level of PA66 enterprises in China was not high, some units resumed work, and the supply picked up. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises follow up slowly, the on-site trading orders are small, the market momentum is insufficient, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Merchants tentatively hold firm in their offer, and there is profit making shipment in the actual order. Recently, the market momentum has not improved, and the light state continues. It was not until the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” that PA66 spot was getting better and better. There were few arrivals at major ports, and the source of imported goods could not fill the gap of domestic demand. The demand of terminal enterprises is still sluggish, and the follow-up of goods preparation is slow. However, in the face of the reduction of on-site supply and offer, the seller’s leading role in the market is enhanced.

The performance of the “silver ten” in the second half of the traditional peak season is relatively less brilliant. The same raw material prices run at a high level and the same cost side support is strong. However, the operating rate of the industry continues to be affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. In addition, the traditional peak season is gradually weak, the demand is gradually weakened, the on-site supply price is high, the practitioners have heavy resistance, the purchase operation is biased to just need to maintain production, and the weak market of supply and demand continues to spread. The seller’s mentality is loose and the offer is gradually reduced.

Future forecast

According to the bulk data list of business society, the low point of PA66 in 2021 appeared at 29400 yuan / ton in the new year, while the high point appeared at 42900 yuan / ton in early April. This year, the price of PA66 once again hit the price mark of 40 thousand tons, which reminds people of the hot market of PA66 a few years ago. This moment of the same price range is not exactly the same as that moment. At that time, terminal enterprises bloomed everywhere and the industry developed rapidly. Now it is the year after the downstream departure, and the dilemma of high dependence on imports of adiponitrile is becoming more and more prominent. The weak market of supply and demand in 2021 is largely due to the insufficient supply of adiponitrile, and the world has been suffering for a long time. At present, many domestic adiponitrile production lines are under construction. It is reported that two production lines are expected to be completed and shipped successively in the next two years. Upstream and downstream operators of the domestic PA66 industrial chain are looking forward to a PA66 industry with more stable supply and demand and healthier market.

1、 Price data

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7345.75 yuan / ton, up 1.03% from 7270.75 yuan / ton on December 27. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7160.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7037.50 yuan / ton on December 27. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7000-7300 yuan / ton.

On December 31, the naphtha commodity index was 90.66, up 0.15 points from yesterday, down 12.27% from the highest point 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 114.63% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released, and the manufacturers actively pushed up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market.

The price of toluene rose by 40.00 yuan / ton on December 31, and the price of toluene rose by 40.00 yuan / ton on December 31. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, with the price of 5860.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 5730.00 yuan / ton on December 27, up 2.27%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of 31, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fluctuated in December, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of December 30, the mainstream offer price of China viscosity 2.75-2.85 by the sample enterprises was about 15633.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: the raw material caprolactam stabilized after falling this month, the upstream pure benzene fluctuated, and the cost side of caprolactam supported the fluctuation. The downstream demand is reduced, and the market is dominated by weak and stable operation. It is expected that the caprolactam price may continue to run sideways.

Upstream caprolactam stabilized after falling in December, and the weakness of PA6 cost side eased. The overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was stable at about 70% this month. The maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was good for the spot price. Due to the reduction of supply and the rise of downstream goods preparation operation, the polymerization plant harvested some orders. However, some downstream enterprises had holidays in advance, and the demand for goods preparation in some areas collapsed. The inventory position of PA6 of other downstream users is low, the on-site trading is OK, and the market picks up at the end of the month.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the spot price of PA6 recovered, the horizontal consolidation after the decline of caprolactam, and the cost support of PA6 is still general. The terminal demand changes one after another, and the order situation of PA6 enterprises is OK. It is expected that the replenishment demand of PA6 before New Year’s day will be released in the short term, and the price may rise slightly.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 29, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 9733.33 yuan / ton, down 39.67% compared with the price on December 1, down 43.74% year-on-year in a three-month cycle and up 33.94% compared with the same period last year.

The overall trend of melamine market fell sharply in December. In the first half of the month, the price of raw urea gradually declined and the cost support gradually loosened. The overall start-up of melamine market was at a high level, and the downstream start-up was limited. In some areas, due to environmental protection control and other factors, the just need to follow up was weak. In terms of export, it was mainly wait-and-see, the shipment of enterprises was under pressure, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the overall atmosphere of the market was weak. In the second half of the month, the raw material urea was in strong operation. With the sharp decline in the price of melamine in the early stage, the cost pressure was obvious, and the inquiry in the export market was improved. The enterprise’s shipment was ok, the price stopped falling and rose. Near the end of the month, the demand side showed general performance and the market atmosphere was light.

Upstream urea, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic urea market rose on December 29, and the reference price of urea was 2552.00 on December 29, an increase of 1.92% compared with December 1. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, urea supply was insufficient, and urea rose slightly in the future.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the upstream urea price has risen and the cost support has increased. Recently, the operating rate of melamine has declined slightly, but the demand follow-up is insufficient. Enterprises mainly execute early orders, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate stably and weakly, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 1167.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the end of the year was 1275.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.29%. The highest point was October 14, and the average price was 2266.67 yuan / ton. The lowest point was the beginning of the year, and the highest point was 94.29% higher than the lowest point.

formaldehyde

In 2021, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose first and then fell. From the above figure, it can be seen that formaldehyde was in an upward trend for seven months in 2021, and the highest increase in a single month was in September, reaching 22.38%. The rise in September was mainly due to the soaring price of raw material methanol due to macro factors such as coal. Superimposed on the positive downstream goods preparation before the national day, superimposed on double positive factors, the formaldehyde market rose sharply. Formaldehyde has been in a downward trend for four months in 2021, with the largest decline in November, reaching 15.6%. The main reason for the decline in November was the continuous decline of raw methanol. In addition, with the relaxation of power restriction policy, the load of some formaldehyde units was increased, and there was sufficient supply of formaldehyde on the market, while the downstream operation was low, and the supply exceeded the demand, resulting in a sharp decline in the formaldehyde market. In addition to the large changes in the market in the past two months, there were also March, with an increase of 17.65%. The main reason is that there is a strong demand for downstream board factories and adhesive factories in Shandong. The news of “Russia’s proposed wood export ban” has promoted the rise of the wood market. The industry has a good acceptance of the rising price of formaldehyde, high purchasing sentiment and strong stock atmosphere, which supports the continuous rise of the formaldehyde market, and the formaldehyde market is in a high-speed rising channel.

Upstream methanol: it can be seen from the above figure that methanol and formaldehyde basically maintain the same curve throughout the year. The sharp rise of methanol was also in September, mainly because futures strongly led the national long methanol sentiment. The inventory of mainstream production plants remained low and the pressure was difficult to show. In addition, the downstream goods preparation was more active before the national day, which supported the sharp rise of the market in the main methanol producing areas. At the end of October, methanol began to decline, and the decline continued until November. The main reason was the sharp decline in the price of thermal coal. Methanol was sold in Northwest China, but the sales were average, the enterprise inventory increased, and the methanol market continued to decline sharply. The market of methanol basically dominates the market curve of formaldehyde and plays a decisive role in the market trend of formaldehyde.

The downstream of formaldehyde is mainly plate, and the operation of the downstream plate plant determines the purchase intention. In March, affected by macro factors, the export of wood and furniture resumed, and the logs rose sharply. The demand for furniture and plates from abroad, such as Southeast Asia, increased. Therefore, the orders of domestic plate factories increased, the demand for formaldehyde increased significantly, the procurement was positive, the supply of formaldehyde was not in demand, and the market rose significantly. In addition, it is greatly affected by environmental protection. In November, some regions frequently started secondary environmental protection control, the operating rate of downstream plate plants continued to be low, the purchasing mood of operators was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. In order to ship, formaldehyde manufacturers took the initiative to lower their quotation, resulting in the decline of formaldehyde market.

Recently, the domestic methanol market continues to decline, the downstream demand is poor, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicts that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in shock at the beginning of 2022.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. On December 26, the average price in Shandong market was 2708.75 yuan / ton, up 5.45% from 2568.75 yuan / ton on December 20.

On December 26, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 210.68, the same as yesterday, down 19.65% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 214.96% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 30, 2012)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery delivered well and the transaction was positive. The inventory of some refineries was low and the price continued to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the symptoms of Omicron infection cases were mild. Even though the epidemic cases in Europe and the United States increased sharply, the symptoms were relatively mild, and the impact of the epidemic on the market was weakened. In addition, oil and gas exploitation in the United States has increased, which has a certain negative impact on oil prices. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that the decline in US crude oil inventories last week exceeded market expectations, which benefited the oil market. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) controlled production, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the near future, the oil market remains in a tight balance, and the oil price has been supported.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices remained stable as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon continued to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of December 26, the price was 20093.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.24), there are 11 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 2 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (6.83%), petroleum coke (5.45%) and WTI crude oil (4.34%). There are 4 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were steam coal (- 10.77%), methanol (- 6.76%) and dimethyl ether (- 1.72%). Both rose or fell by 0.51% this week.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that: Recently, the local refining manufacturers have shipped well and the price has increased. At present, the downstream has purchased successively, and the inventory in the local refining market is low. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.

Trend of metallic magnesium in recent March

Market analysis this week

This week, the price of magnesium decreased first and then increased. At the beginning of the week, the high level was obviously loose, and then fell back. Many traders fell steadily and secretly, and downstream buyers were also more cautious in purchasing. By Wednesday, the situation in magnesium city had risen again, mainly due to the convening of the Yulin environmental protection inspector case meeting the day before, and the magnesium price returned to 50000 yuan / ton.

As of December 24, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 49900-50000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 49900-50000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan factory tax included spot exchange 50000-50100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 50100-50200 yuan / ton.

Inventory supply and demand are both tight

According to the business agency, some traders said that there was little inventory left in the factory, and some factories suspended quotation. The output of magnesium in Yulin from January to November was 474000 tons, down 5.2%.

After the stock replenishment before the festival in foreign countries, during the Christmas holiday this week, orders fell sharply, overseas transactions were cold, lack of support from overseas orders, and domestic procurement was mainly rigid demand, so the quotation of magnesium ingots was under pressure.

Environmental news triggered a jump in magnesium prices

On the afternoon of December 22, the Symposium on typical cases of the central ecological and environmental protection inspectors was held in Yulin. The meeting informed the central ecological and environmental protection inspector of the typical case of “ineffective elimination of backwardness, frequent illegal construction and prominent environmental problems in the blue carbon industry” in Yulin, conducted a profound and comprehensive analysis on the problems involved, and arranged the deployment of rectification work.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the orchid charcoal market was weak and stable on the 24th. The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in fugu market was 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the coke surface was 1150-1250 yuan / ton. Under the influence of environmental protection inspectors, Lantan enterprises are expected to stop production and limit production. Previously, the enterprises that stopped production are expected to resume production in years, and some of them will suspend shipping quotation.

The sudden news from the environmental protection inspector once again panicked the magnesium ingot Market. Some magnesium plants rose 10000 yuan a day to 50000 yuan / ton of tax included spot exchange. Some magnesium plants did not offer prices and waited on the market. Downstream purchasers do not buy the sudden surge in prices. They are more cautious and wait-and-see, and the transaction is not positive. Traders have a strong willingness to support prices due to policy uncertainty.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, there are not many spot goods at present, and the demand side performance is not ideal. The high price follow-up of downstream users is not strong. At the same time, due to foreign holidays, orders are also reduced synchronously, and the driving force for the rise of magnesium ingots is insufficient. Traders are expected to offer more firm prices under the influence of environmental protection policies, and the high price support of magnesium ingots is still in progress. Therefore, business analysts believe that the magnesium ingot Market will maintain a high and stable operation in the short term, and we need to pay close attention to the policy details in the follow-up.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market was not favorable, and the price continued to fall. The price of civil gas in Shandong mostly fell below the 5000 yuan / ton level. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5220.00 yuan / ton on December 12 and 4950.00 yuan / ton on December 20, with a decrease of 5.17% during the week and an increase of 41.03% compared with the same period last year.

As of December 20, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

North China 4720-5050 yuan / ton

East China 4750-5200 yuan / ton

South China 4950-5250 yuan / ton

Shandong region 4800-5200 yuan / ton

This week, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market continued to be weak, the focus of Shandong civil gas market continued to move downward, and the price mostly fell below the 5000 yuan / ton level. At present, the market is lack of good. The downward trend of international crude oil shocks has brought insufficient support to the market. Although the supply of Shandong market has not fully recovered and operates at a low level, the improvement of terminal demand is insufficient. The recent cooling of the weather is not obvious, the market demand is limited, the downstream mentality is cautious, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high. The manufacturer’s inventory is increasing gradually, focusing on profit making shipment. The domestic civil liquefied gas market is mainly weak, and the civil gas market in other regions has also been reduced to varying degrees.

The recent shock and decline of LPG futures market has brought some bad news to the spot market. On December 20, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2202 was 4280, the highest price was 4341, the lowest price was 4161, the closing price was 4175, the former settlement price was 4375, the settlement price was 4252, down 200, down 4.57%, the trading volume was 170851, the position was 70082, and the daily position was increased by 4749. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole is mainly downward, and the market lacks obvious benefits. The shock of the international crude oil trend brings limited support to the market, the improvement of terminal demand is insufficient, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is weak, the manufacturer’s mentality is general, and the price is mainly reduced for shipment. It is expected that the price of civil gas in Shandong will still be downward in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 22, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 690 yuan / ton. Compared with December 1 (reference price 680 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.47%.

In early December, the domestic phosphate ore market was slightly up

At the beginning of December, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated steadily as a whole, and the downstream Yellow Phosphorus market gradually warmed up since the beginning of December, bringing a positive atmosphere to the market. The continuous tight supply support in the phosphorus ore quarry, coupled with the effective drive of the downstream, some mining enterprises have expectations for the rise of the phosphorus ore market price. On August 8, mining enterprises in some parts of China raised the market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore slightly again. In Guizhou, the freight yard price of 28% phosphorus ore increased by 20 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 580-620 yuan / ton, the price of 30% phosphorus ore increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% phosphorus ore is around 630-670 yuan / ton. The market situation of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also gathered slightly upward. The freight yard prices of 28% grade and 30% grade phosphorus ore have also been increased by about 20 yuan / ton. After adjustment, the ex factory price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 590-630 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton.

In late December, the domestic phosphorus ore market was sorted and operated at a high level

In late December, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market remained at a high level. At present, the downstream procurement atmosphere was acceptable, the downstream Yellow Phosphorus price gradually rose, continued to support the phosphorus ore market, the mine supply remained tight, and most orders were contract users. On the 21st, some domestic mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the Chinese end-grade phosphorus ore yard price slightly again, The increase range is 10 yuan / ton. The freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is 640-670 yuan / ton. As of December 22, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 690 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.5% within the month. At present, the downstream of domestic phosphorus ore market maintains stable procurement, and the supply and demand surface in the plant is normal.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 640-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 630-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of index, the phosphorus ore commodity index on December 21 was 126.61, up 0.62 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 146.42% from the lowest point of 51.38 on December 24, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

After years of development, China’s phosphorus ore industry has formed a mature industrial chain, which is mainly divided into three links. Among them, the upstream participants are phosphorus ore mining equipment suppliers, including civil blasting equipment suppliers and mining machinery equipment suppliers; The main participants in the middle reaches are phosphorus ore mining enterprises, which are the owners of phosphorus ore resources and mining technology; The downstream participants are phosphorus chemical enterprises, and the main products are yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in December, the domestic yellow phosphorus Market Trend operated upward as a whole. The manufacturer mainly supplied old customers with early orders, and the transaction of new orders was acceptable. There are more inquiries in the yellow phosphorus field, higher market procurement enthusiasm, tight supply, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the price of yellow phosphorus rises. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 44000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 42000-43000 yuan / ton. It is reported that Yunnan began to implement the new electricity price in 2022 in January. The electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, as the new year’s Day holiday is approaching, the downstream of domestic phosphorus ore may welcome phased goods preparation. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that most of the phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the near future., More attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of December 21, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6750.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, and the white carbon black price was stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

The mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6750 yuan / ton, and the price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed significantly, down 1.82% compared with the same period last month. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, the operation is weak in a narrow range, the procurement enthusiasm is general, the main supply contract customers, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable, medium and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid fluctuated upward. As of December 20, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly, up 30.00 yuan / ton or 10.14% compared with the quotation on December 17, and up 6.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market is good, giving strong support to hydrochloric acid, the downstream ammonium chloride market is low, the polyaluminium chloride market is rising slightly, and has a good enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid procurement.

On December 20, the chemical index was 1108 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 20.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 85.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly operate smoothly, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite in Henan remained unchanged this week. On December 17, the average market price in Henan was 7275.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.75% month on month and 25.43% year-on-year.

quotations analysis

The domestic cryolite market continues to be strong. At present, the source of raw materials of most enterprises tends to be stable. Due to the high price of raw materials and the impact of cost pressure, the high price of cryolite is temporarily stable. Coupled with the heating in northern winter, the production of manufacturers is limited and the output is reduced, and the market situation continues to be high. As of December 17, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6700-8600 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the soda ash market continued to decline this week. As of December 17, the average market price was about 2775 yuan / ton. The price in the week fell by 8.26% and increased by 98.21% compared with the same period last year. The soda ash price was higher than that in previous periods. The operating rate of soda ash was 82.54% this week, the output increased during the week, the supply of soda ash was stable, the manufacturers actively shipped, mainly purchased on demand in the downstream, and the market trading was general.

In the downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated upward. On December 17, the aluminum price was 19400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.30% in the week compared with the price of 118780.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week. The downstream market raised the quotation, the aluminum demand recovered, the accumulation of social inventory eased, the supply and demand side improved, the aluminum price rose, and the market was sorted upward.

Future forecast

The quotation of domestic cryolite enterprises continues to be high, the high cost of raw materials and the impact of limited production of heating in winter coexist, and the mentality of the field operators is optimistic. From the perspective of market supply, the short-term cryolite trend continues to operate at a high level, and the specific attention is paid to the situation of upstream raw materials.

The domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, the spot was tight, and the price was high in the short term. Weekly quotation, factory prices are increased, limited supply; Production enterprises deliver goods evenly, with slow delivery, slow filling of goods in the trade market, small incoming volume near the end of the year, and tight market supply; In addition, dealers are worried about the high settlement price at the end of the month, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is higher.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from December 10 to December 17, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 18720 yuan / ton to 19280 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.99%, a month on month decrease of 4.08% and a year-on-year increase of 8.62%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 17:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 19400-19500 yuan / ton 19000-19100 yuan / ton

East China 19500 yuan / ton 19000-19100 yuan / ton

South China 19500 yuan / ton 19000-19200 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of December 17:

Raw material pure benzene: the price of East pure benzene rises, and this round of rise is mainly driven by the price of Shandong. Shandong market immediately began to hype the news that new downstream devices were about to enter the procurement market. Traders bought goods actively and prices rose. Driven by the atmosphere of Shandong, the East China market has a large volume of paper goods, and the price has also risen rapidly.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: aniline rebounded slightly driven by cost. Ningbo Wanhua phase 2 aniline MDI cogeneration unit was shut down, Yantai Wanhua’s shipment to Ningbo decreased and aniline inventory increased, but Yantai Wanhua’s plan to store a large amount of aniline for export has not yet been heard, which has no impact on the domestic aniline Market

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.5 million T / a plant phase I stopped on November 27 for 45 days; Phase II will stop on December 11 for 45 days. The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF has a negative phenomenon this week; There is a maintenance plan in January 2022, and the specific time is unknown at present. Dongcao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is mainly sorted out.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: this week, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate returned to rise sharply again, and the rising range is increasing. On December 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 233600 yuan / ton, Compared with the price at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 207600 yuan / ton on December 12), the price increased by 12.52%. The average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 247000 yuan / ton on December 16 (on December 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 220000 yuan / ton), up 12.27% compared with the price. As of December 16, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was about 207000 ~ 236000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate Market was about 217000 ~ 268000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has been rising again and again this week, and the rising range is increasing. Due to the increasingly serious mood of goods preparation at the end of the year, the market procurement volume continues to increase. The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in the downstream also increased significantly, so the demand for lithium carbonate continued to rise. With the obvious reduction in the domestic market, the supply of goods is also relatively tight, and the market is hard to find. Therefore, manufacturers and traders have raised the price of lithium carbonate one after another. With the impact of the continuous decline of lithium carbonate inventory in the market, the situation of high price lock volume appears.

The price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide in the downstream is temporarily stable. Recently, the price of raw spodumene has been running at a high level, with obvious cost support, little change in supply and demand, and a fair market atmosphere. At present, there are still some stocks in the market, and the future demand for lithium carbonate conversion may appear, which may follow the upward trend.

The price of lithium iron phosphate power type in the downstream remained stable, the supply and demand of mainstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises in the market were still tight at full production and sales, and the acceptance of price increase in the downstream was improved. In terms of price, the price of lithium salt is still in an upward trend, and the price of lithium iron phosphate may rise in the future driven by the raw material end.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the hoarding sentiment of lithium carbonate raw materials in the downstream market continues to rise. In addition, the current sharp decline in the spot volume of lithium carbonate has continuously raised the price. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still rising.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell first and then rose this week, with a slight increase compared with last week. On December 3, the price was 5740 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 10), the price was 5840 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 44.91% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the international oil price rose by a wide margin, the cost side was boosted, the mixed xylene market rose, the enthusiasm was strong, and the price rebounded. However, poor downstream demand still restricts the rise of mixed xylene.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market fell after rising this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $708.5/t, up $16 / T or 2.31% month on month (December 3); the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $736 / T, up $19 / T or 2.65% month on month (December 3).

In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain strong crude oil demand in the future, and raised the official sales price of all crude oil grades in Asia and the United States in January. The market’s concern about the inhibition of crude oil demand by the new crown mutant strain Omicron eased, the price rebounded sharply, and the price returned to above $70 / barrel. Brent rose $5.27 / barrel, or 7.54% this week; WTI rose $5.41/barrel, or 8.16%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday (December 10), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, an increase of 55.81% over the same period last year. As of December 10, the closing prices in Asia were 814-816 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 832-834 US dollars / ton CFR China.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell broadly this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of ox in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from last week and up 13.31% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3 and 7789.2 yuan / ton on December 10, down 1.24% from last week and 36.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the new crown variant strain Omicron. Many countries strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures. Before further determining its impact, the demand for crude oil will still be limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream demand continues to be light, and the price rise is blocked. The short-term mixed xylene price trend is obviously affected by external news. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week, and the acetic anhydride market fell. As of December 13, the price of acetic anhydride was 10950.00 yuan / ton, down 4.16% from 11425.00 yuan / ton last weekend (December 3). The cost of raw materials decreased and the market of acetic anhydride fell.

Raw material acetic acid market fell

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid fell slightly this week, and the decline of acetic acid Market slowed down. As of December 13, the quotation of acetic acid was 6140 yuan / ton, down 1.76% from 6250 yuan / ton on December 3 last weekend. This week, the price of acetic acid fell slightly, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell was great.

Methanol prices fell sharply this week

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the methanol market fell this week and the methanol price fell sharply. As of December 13, the methanol price was 2612.50 yuan / ton, down 5.26% from 2757.50 yuan / ton on December 3 last weekend; The domestic methanol market fell. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased.

Market overview and future forecast

Business agency acetic anhydride data analysts believe that the decline in the price of raw acetic acid slowed down this week, and the price of methanol fell sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened; Acetic anhydride supply is normal, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and customers are more cautious. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is adjusted weakly, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is weakened, and the future price of acetic anhydride is expected to be adjusted weakly.

Last week (12.6-10), the domestic market price of butyl acetate fell significantly. It was mainly affected by the weak cost and weak demand caused by the decline of upstream acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 2.78%. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 9500-10000 yuan / ton.

First, in terms of cost, domestic acetic acid continued to decline last week, with a decline of 1.44%. During the week, the quotation fell first and then stabilized, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the market was dominated by just buying, the transaction of new orders in the market was insufficient, the acetic acid manufacturers negotiated shipment, and the transaction focus shifted downward. Most domestic acetic acid plants operated normally, and the devices of individual enterprises in East China were overhauled. However, the enterprise’s early inventory accumulated, the overall supply of goods in the market was still sufficient, and the operator’s mentality remained wait-and-see.

In addition, from the perspective of upstream n-butanol, according to the monitoring of business society, as of December 9, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 7966 yuan / ton, Compared with the price on December 5 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8200 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 234 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.85%. Since the beginning of the month, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has been running downward all the time, and the decline of acetic acid and n-butanol prices has dragged down the improvement of butyl acetate Market.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers was high last week and the market supply was sufficient. Last week, the prices of large factories were generally reduced by about 300 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s shipment speed is weak, and the price support psychology is weakened, which has a significant impact on the market. In addition, traders are not active in taking goods, and downstream factories on the demand side are only limited to just need to buy. Market trading is not active, demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market has not substantially improved.

Future forecast: it is difficult to say that the cost side is good in the near future, and the supply side also shows certain pressure. The manufacturer will accumulate the risk of inventory in the later stage. It is expected that the recent ethyl acetate Market may still decline.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid decreased slightly this week, and the quotation decreased from 320.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 6.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On December 9, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, the same as yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quoted 400 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 280 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 60 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream polyaluminium chloride first fell and then rose. The quotation increased from 2356.25 yuan / ton last weekend to 2362.50 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.27%, up 31.98% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 1170.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1132.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.21%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products are not enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The market of upstream liquid chlorine has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the market of downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride has declined slightly, and the willingness to purchase downstream has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1896 yuan / ton on December 6, and 1896 yuan / ton on December 10. The price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The overall market situation of ammonium sulfate this week was temporarily stable, and prices were slightly adjusted in some areas. The supply of ammonium sulfate is stable this week. The downstream demand is weak, there is resistance to high prices, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly. The downstream procurement is not active, and the trading volume of ammonium sulfate is limited. At present, the market is deadlocked. For coking grade ammonium sulfate this week, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1800-1850 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is 1750-1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is 1700-1760 yuan / ton. This week’s domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 2100-2150 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has not fluctuated much this week. The market of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, rose steadily, and the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline. At present, the compound fertilizer market is mainly stable, the demand for raw materials is insufficient, and more replenishment is required. The winter storage market is weak, and it is difficult to improve the demand for raw material ammonium sulfate in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that at present, the ammonium sulfate Market is not good, the downstream just needs replenishment, and the market supply and demand is balanced. However, due to the weak demand side, enterprises are under pressure to ship, and ammonium sulfate is expected to decline slightly in the short term.

In December, both raw materials were in a bad state, and the epoxy resin market fell significantly. According to the monitoring data of business society, on December 1, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China was 27500-28000 yuan / ton, the offer of Huangshan solid epoxy resin market was 22000-22500 yuan / ton, and the offer of liquid resin Market in East China fell 2000 yuan and 25500-26000 yuan / ton on December 9, The market offer of Huangshan solid epoxy resin is 21000 yuan / ton, and at present, the decline is difficult to stop, and it is difficult to have favorable support upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The epoxy resin market continued to decline. On the one hand, the double raw materials were bad, on the other hand, the downstream demand was poor.

In December, the domestic bisphenol a market continued to decline until the market stopped falling and rebounded on the 8th. The main reason is that the market spot resources are limited and the offer of cargo holders pushed up, but the actual purchase volume on the floor is very limited and the market transaction is flat. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic bisphenol a market offer was 16875 yuan / ton on December 1, 15575 yuan / ton on December 7 and 15900 yuan / ton on December 9, with a cumulative decrease of 5.78% and an amplitude of 7.7%. The fluctuation of bisphenol a market is mainly affected by the start-up of domestic factories and the production of new units, bidding and changes in downstream demand. Short term BPA interval adjustment operation.

Epichlorohydrin market fell. At present, the price of raw propylene is rising slightly, the raw glycerol market is weak, the cost support is relatively general, the demand side support is weak, the downstream consumption inventory or long-term contract is mainly, the inquiry purchase intention is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market transaction is weak, and the price of epichlorohydrin is lower. On December 8, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 15566.67 yuan / ton, down 3.51% compared with the price on December 1, 20.85% compared with the price on November 8, and 1.27% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, with limited cost support and weak demand, the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may focus on weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Device: the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 60%; The operating rate of solid resin is 4-5%.

From the perspective of the chemical industry, it is still in the downward channel, but from the perspective of the energy end, the decline slows down. From the perspective of the epoxy resin market, the decline of dual raw materials slows down and has a slight correction, but there is a lack of positive support for the continuous upward trend. The new capacity of raw material bisphenol A and the situation of domestic factories still need to be paid special attention. The new capacity of epoxy resin market has been announced continuously, and the proportion of price in the market has increased. Business analysts believe that in the later stage, they pay more attention to the impact of industrial policies. According to the current situation, the epoxy resin market may continue to bottom in the short term in December.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price was 3550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3500 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the price down 1.41%. The price of baking soda maintained the consolidation trend this week. On December 2, the commodity index of baking soda was 232.30, the same as yesterday, down 1.50% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 163.17% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 3200-3500 yuan / ton. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 3400-3500 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price will be adjusted in the later stage.

Raw materials: soda ash prices are weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 3387.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was about 3200 yuan / ton, down 5.54% and up 110.25% over the same period last year. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 3200-3400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 3300-3500 yuan / ton. On the whole, the short-term soda ash price is weak, mainly running. The manufacturer actively shipped, and the actual transaction was average. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash during the week was 81.91%, up 6.82% month on month. During the week, the output of soda ash was 582900 tons, an increase of 48500 tons. The unit was started and resumed within the week, and the output increased.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the actual shipment is general. As for raw materials, according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak, the operation market is in general, the market atmosphere is general, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased. Downstream glass is mainly purchased on demand, with strong wait-and-see mood. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda will continue to adjust the operation market in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 5266.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5200.00 yuan / ton on December 3, down 66.67 yuan / ton, down 1.27%, up 40.54% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On December 5, the calcium carbide commodity index was 136.24, the same as yesterday, down 35.81% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.52% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support has been strengthened, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone quoted 5200 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 5100 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quotation this weekend was 5300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was strengthened, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. This week, the price of PVC fell from 9340.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8980.00 yuan / ton on December 3, a decrease of 3.58%, an increase of 8.36% over the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market has insufficient power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the future

In the first ten days of December, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly and the cost support of calcium carbide strengthened, but the downstream PVC market began to decline slightly and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in early December.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fell continuously this week. On November 26, the price of mixed xylene was 6050 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 3), the price was 5740 yuan / ton, down 5.12% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 54.3%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the international oil price fluctuated and fell, the mixed xylene in Asia fell broadly, the external news was bad, and the mixed xylene price followed the decline. Weak downstream demand and light market negotiation atmosphere; And by the impact of low-cost supply, the shipment pressure increases.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market rebounded slightly after a wide decline this week. On Friday (December 3), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $692.5/t, down US $70 / T, or 9.18%, compared with November 26; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $717 / T, down US $72 / T or 9.13% month on month on November 26.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. Last week, a new variant of COVID-19, which was discovered in South Africa and other countries, triggered a sell-off of financial assets, exacerbating concerns about oil demand and oil prices. The OPEC + meeting within the week decided to maintain the original production increase plan and boost oil prices. Brent fell $2.84 / barrel, or 3.91% this week; WTI fell $1.89/barrel, or 2.77%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On Friday (December 3), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, down 8.22% from the beginning of the week and up 55.81% year-on-year. As of December 3, the closing prices in Asia were USD 795-797 / T FOB Korea and USD 813-815 / T CFR China.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (December 3), the price of ox in East China was 6600 yuan / ton, down 4.35% from last week and up 17.44% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this week. The price was 8066 yuan / ton on November 26 and 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3, down 2.22% from last week and up 47.11% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on crude oil and economy. OPEC + maintains the original planned increase in production or continues to boost oil prices. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate in the short term and there is room for rebound. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

In the short term, crude oil maintained a weak trend and lacked support for mixed xylene market. Mixed xylene port inventory continued to rise, the downstream demand side was insufficient, and the negotiation was light. Overall, the trend of mixed xylene will continue to decline weakly next week. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, domestic vitamin C fell slightly this week. The average price of food grade vitamin C was 48 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 47.67 yuan / kg at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.69%.

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic vitamin C market is running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price of food grade is 46-48 yuan / kg, and that of feed grade is 42-44 yuan / kg. Most production enterprises stop reporting, the market supply is sufficient and the demand is general.

Upstream: the price of corn fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the overall price of corn will continue to be weak and downward during the first ten days of December, but it does not rule out the interval rebound in some markets due to the impact of weather on transportation.

The price of vitamin A remained stable this week, and the weekly average price of feed grade vitamin A remained stable at 295 yuan / kg. The mainstream price of vitamin A is 280-295 yuan / kg. It is said that Zhejiang medicine raised the price to 360 yuan / kg on November 5. Under the guidance of price adjustment by large manufacturers, the market performance was strong, manufacturers stopped reporting, and traders supported the price.

The vitamin E market is running smoothly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin E is stable at 90 yuan / kg, and the mainstream market quotation is around 90-95 yuan / kg. On October 18, XinHeCheng raised the price to 98 yuan / kg, and on November 5, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical raised the price to 108 yuan / kg. The price increased, the middlemen supported the price, and the downstream demand follow-up was OK.

Future forecast

Vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: Overall, the overall market of vitamins tends to be stable. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell in November. The quotation of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 6730 yuan / ton, and the price of acetic acid at the end of the month was 6680 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The price increased by 96.47% year-on-year, and the highest price in the month was 7230 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month.

As of November 30, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

region November 1st November 17th November 30th

South China 7000-7100 yuan / ton 7150-7250 yuan / ton 6600-6700 yuan / ton

North China 6700-6900 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton 6500-6600 yuan / ton

Shandong region 6650-6750 yuan / ton 7000-7150 yuan / ton 6400-6550 yuan / ton

Jiangsu region 6700-6900 yuan / ton 7000-7200 yuan / ton 6500-6600 yuan / ton

Zhejiang region 6800-7000 yuan / ton 7200-7300 yuan / ton 6600-6700 yuan / ton

In November, the acetic acid market rose first and then fell. In the first ten days of market consolidation, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises in the field was digested smoothly, the intention to support the price was strong, the quotation rose continuously, the active purchase in the downstream increased, and the acetic acid manufacturers actively shipped to promote the upward movement of the market price. The domestic acetic acid plant operated normally in the last ten days. Although there were enterprise plant maintenance, there were many goods prepared in the early stage to maintain the sufficient supply of goods in the acetic acid market. The downstream demand entered the off-season, and the market purchase was just needed. The acetic acid manufacturers negotiated shipment, the transaction focus shifted downward, and the market price continued to decline.

The downstream ethyl acetate market fluctuated downward in November. As of November 30, the quotation was 9550 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.04% over the price of 9650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the demand for ethyl acetate fluctuated little, the market remained rigid and stable, and the price rise and fall were mostly affected by the cost and supply side. During the month, the main manufacturers of ethyl acetate gradually increased from early maintenance to commencement. The enterprises adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment, and the ethyl acetate market gradually decreased.

The market outlook of acetic acid is expected. The acetic acid analysts of business society believe that the downstream demand continues to be weak, the domestic acetic acid market is in sufficient supply, and the situation of oversupply will remain in operation for a short time. It is expected that the market outlook of acetic acid will be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the downstream transaction.

DOTP prices fell in November

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fluctuated and fell in November, and the DOTP market fell. As of November 30, the price of DOTP was 11600 yuan / ton, down 11.95% from 13175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1); In November, the DOTP price fluctuated and fell, and the DOTP market fell.

The price of isooctanol fell in November

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of isooctanol fell in November, and the activity of the isooctanol market was general. In the middle of the year, the downstream procurement was bargain hunting and replenishment, and the price of isooctanol recovered briefly. The overall price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the decline of isooctanol narrowed and slowed down, the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell in November

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the decline of international crude oil price weakens the cost support of PTA, the performance of terminal demand orders is poor, PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle, the demand follow-up is insufficient, and PTA price shocks are weak. The raw material market weakened and the cost of DOTP decreased, which was bad for the DOTP market.

PVC market stopped falling and wanted to rise in November

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC market hit the bottom and rebounded in November. In November, the PVC market first fell broadly, and then maintained a volatile trend. The price rebounded in late October, but it was difficult to recover the early decline. The overall trend in the month showed a downward trend and the focus shifted downward. In the short term, when there is no obvious change in PVC fundamentals, the price continues to maintain a volatile trend. The PVC market fluctuated and stabilized, which was limited to the DOTP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOTP data analyst at business agency, believes that affected by the weakening of crude oil and poor demand, PTA prices fluctuated and fell, isooctanol prices fell sharply, DOTP costs fell, and DOTP downward pressure increased; On the demand side, the PVC price fluctuated and stabilized, the PVC market was weak and temporarily stable, the demand for plasticizers was general, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. Overall, the cost of plasticizer DOTP has decreased, the demand is general, the future rising power of plasticizer DOTP has weakened, the downward pressure has increased, and the price of DOTP is expected to be adjusted by weak shocks.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C decreased slightly in November. The average price of vitamin C at the beginning of the month was 48.67 yuan / kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 48 yuan / kg, a monthly decrease of 1.38%.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the vitamin C market operated smoothly as a whole in November, mainly through negotiation of market transaction price. The downstream demand is general, and the maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. Affected by the double limit, the production and sales of vitamin C market are weak, and the price is weak and downward. In November, the market demand was still insufficient. Meanwhile, in October 2021, China’s export of vitamin C was 15700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.13% and a month on month increase of 33.8%. The average unit price was US $4.43/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. The export data continued to decrease, further bearish the vitamin C market.

In November, the price of vitamin A fell slightly, with an average price of 280 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 295 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.12%. In November, the vitamin a market was strong, some high prices were corrected, the overall market was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the demand was stable. According to the vitamin A export data in October, China’s vitamin A export volume in October 2021 was 504.84 tons, an increase of 106.3% year-on-year and 22.8% month on month. Export data rose sharply, boosting the market.

In November, the price of vitamin E was stable and small, with an average price of 90.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 90 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.37%. At present, the ve market price is 90-95 yuan / kg, and the European market price has risen to 11-11.5 euros / kg. The market maintained a stable trend. In October 2021, China’s export volume of vitamin E was 7368.3 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62% and a month on month increase of 16.3%. With the support of domestic and foreign demand, the price of vitamin E was strong, and the news of maintenance and price increase constantly came out, which benefited the vitamin E market.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that: on the whole, the vitamin market is currently in a stable state. In the future, if there is no sudden event, the price will run smoothly, and pay close attention to the manufacturer’s opening and parking and market news.

1、 Price data

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7838.25 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7850.75 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7322.50 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from 7635.00 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 28, the naphtha commodity index was 96.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.39% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 129.02% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the local refinery increased first and then decreased. The price of straight run naphtha fell sharply. The refinery will reduce the price and ship the goods. The demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal is weak, and the transaction is general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose first and then declined this week. U.S. President Biden sought ways to reduce gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, repeatedly mentioned the idea of releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves, and called on China, Japan and South Korea to release crude oil reserves. As soon as the news came out, crude oil prices fell sharply. On the other hand, at present, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) production increase policy is still relatively conservative, and they still do not show the willingness to expand the scale of production increase under the pressure from the United States. In particular, the market is worried that if the US government continues to suppress oil prices and make oil prices fall sharply, OPEC + may even consider stopping production increase to offset the adverse impact of the decline in oil prices on the recovery of global oil capital expenditure.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 6370.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6210.20 yuan / ton on November 22, up 2.57%. Mixed xylene rose this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6100.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6020.00 yuan / ton on November 22, up 1.33%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 28th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there are 8 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.25%), WTI crude oil (3.23%) and asphalt (2.77%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 10.84%), coke (- 7.05%) and petroleum coke (- 7.01%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the refinery has cut prices and shipped goods recently, the demand for olefins and aromatics at the terminal is weak, the transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell in November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 26, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 15966.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream caprolactam, the price fell this month. During the month, some enterprises restarted caprolactam units, increased supply and increased inventories of enterprises and society. The price of raw material pure benzene is weak and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream enterprises just need to purchase. Near the end of the month, the spot price of caprolactam has fallen near the cost line, the price stabilization attitude of enterprises is obvious, and the decline began to tighten.

The price of upstream caprolactam fell recently, and the cost support of PA6 collapsed. The overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants is more than 60%, and the current profitability of polymerization plants is general. In terms of demand, double limit and other environmental protection policies affect the load of end enterprises. In addition, the current inventory position of PA6 of downstream users is acceptable, the purchase intention is not high, and there is a lot of wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam continued to decline in November, weakening the cost of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to fall. The terminal demand is weak, the on-site transaction is poor, the buyer’s wait-and-see mood is increased, and the bearish mood in the future is increased. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2844.44 yuan / ton, up 1.99% from 2788.89 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.70% year-on-year.

The price of fluorite rose this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was ok, the installation operation of merchants in the venue declined, the supply of fluorite in the venue was slightly tight, and the price in the venue rose. With the decrease of temperature, some fluorite manufacturers installed parking devices, and the operation of mines and flotation in the yard declined. The delivery of goods in the fluorite yard was ok, and the price trend of fluorite market rose. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price remained high this week, and the downstream terminal mainly purchased on demand. As of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remained at a high level. As of the weekend, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 14010 yuan / ton. The high market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite increased. The price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products has dropped, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field is still not high. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry are normal, and the refrigerant market has dropped at a high level, but the decline is not large. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchases on demand, and the trend has declined. The overall trend of the refrigerant market has dropped, and the price of chloroform has fallen, which has reduced the cost of the refrigerant industry. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is declining. The start-up of major mainstream refrigerant manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is not improved. The demand in R22 market application field is reduced, and enterprises reduce prices for sales. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan / ton. The domestic price of R134a fell slightly, the price of trichloroethylene remained, the cost was under pressure, the phenomenon of closing and stopping the report of R134a increased, the market price was slightly corrected, and the trading focus changed little. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 48000-53000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is mostly profitable, the downstream refrigerant market has a downward trend, and the fluorite price rises due to tight supply.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has a downward trend. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is still tight, but the price of hydrofluoric acid remains high, and the supply of fluorite in the field has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite is still supported by positive support in the short term, and the market price trend is dominated by a slight increase.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price trend of p-xylene this week was temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 69.77%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend remains stable. The closing price of international crude oil fell, and the external price of PX fell. As of the 18th, the closing prices were US $884-886 / T FOB Korea and US $902-904 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia was more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal, and the external closing price of PX fell slightly, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The crude oil price trend fell this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.41/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.24/barrel. Macroscopically, under the background of the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, it dragged down the reconstruction of oil price valuation. More importantly, some changes have been expected in the fundamentals of supply and demand. Therefore, the previous strong energy demand and tight supply have gradually changed into the improvement of supply and demand caused by the repeated epidemic in Europe and the expectation of the global release of oil reserves, and the oil price has continued to fall. As the Russian pipeline Beixi No. 2 has changed again, the delay and the decline in transmission volume are expected to lead to another surge in European natural gas prices. Crude oil supply is expected to remain tight. In the later stage, it still depends on whether the release of global oil reserves can make up for the gap, and the supply side variables are still changing. In addition, there will be a long short game in demand. In the process of global economic recovery, energy demand is still strong. However, repeated outbreaks and rising inflation in the United States will also suppress demand. The decline of oil price has a certain negative impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend fell this week. As of the 19th, the average PTA market price was 4700-4800 yuan / ton, and the PTA price fell by 3.8% this week. The PTA Market of raw materials declined. The 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical failed to restart last weekend. It is planned to restart around November 19. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at about 79%. The inventory of production enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. At present, PTA inventory continues to increase, and the social inventory is about 3.7245 million tons. At present, the power rationing restrictions in many places in China have been cancelled. Although some conditions have improved, the operating rate of polyester plants has not rebounded rapidly as expected, and remained at about 83% as of November 18. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the main textile bases. The comprehensive start-up rate of looms is around 66%. The start-up of polyester and weaving is still at a low level compared with the first half of the year. The procurement enthusiasm is not high. The market situation of the textile industry is poor, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is slightly lower, but the cost side support begins to weaken, the downstream PTA and textile market is poor, PTA stocks are accumulated, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that there is room for the market price of p-xylene to fall in the later stage.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 2620.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2562.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.19%, an increase of 41.31% over the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, with an overall downward trend.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7403.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.95%, a year-on-year increase of 114.63% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1086.25 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 76.41% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply. The quotation fell from 4896.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 4380.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 10.55%, a year-on-year increase of 43.61% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 18400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.71%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: the demand is general, and the agricultural demand ends; The industry is just in need, the recommendation of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer plant has not started to purchase urea on a large scale, the inventory of melamine enterprises is under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, the urea cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced.

The future price of urea is bearish

In late November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period and the supply is tight, but the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, and the future urea market price may fluctuate and fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.81%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 11100 yuan / ton, which decreased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7897.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.83 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.75%, up 9.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand. From the downstream industrial chain, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua neopentyl glycol this weekend is 18000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly and the spot market was tight, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of isobutyraldehyde market in late November may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may decline slightly in the short term under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market price remained stable this week, and the average price of industrial grade glycine remained stable at 29666 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the glycine market continues to stop reporting. The quotation of industrial glycine in Hebei is 35000 yuan / ton, mainly based on detailed discussion of actual orders. Shandong Hongtai resumes driving, can receive new orders, and will not make an offer for the time being. The market turnover is acceptable, the downstream is affected by double limit, the commencement is reduced, but the glycine procurement is relatively stable.

Downstream products: this week, the price of glyphosate technical drug exceeded 80000 yuan / ton, and the maximum price rose to 85000 yuan / ton. Affected by the double limit, glyphosate enterprises did not start enough, and the overall production capacity decreased. Although the prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus, acetic acid and have been corrected to a certain extent, the tight demand for glyphosate is difficult to change. Enterprise orders are scheduled to the end of the year, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current demand for glycine is supported, the price remains high, and the short-term market is mainly stable.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market showed a downward trend today (November 18). The average price in the spot market was 4789 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from the previous day and up 47.07% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 4834, down 144, or 2.89%.

In terms of units, the 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical failed to restart last weekend. It is planned to restart around November 19. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains around 79%. The inventory of production enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. At present, PTA inventory continues to increase, and the social inventory is about 3.7245 million tons.

Crude oil prices plummeted to a six week low after the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned against oversupply, compounded by the resurgence of the European epidemic, the surge of new cases exacerbated the expectation of lower market demand and put pressure on oil prices. On November 17, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.36/barrel and that of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.28/barrel.

At present, the power rationing restrictions in many places in China have been cancelled. Although some conditions have improved, the operating rate of polyester plants has not rebounded rapidly as expected, and remained at about 83% as of November 17. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the main textile bases, the comprehensive starting rate of looms is around 66%, and the start-up of polyester and weaving is still at a low level compared with the first half of the year. The price remained stable today. Polyester POY (150D / 48F), a mainstream factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, quoted 7450-7900 yuan / ton, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood.

Business analysts believe that the short-term crude oil market is anxious, the supply-demand game is dominant, and the cost support has weakened. In addition, the performance of terminal demand orders is poor, and PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle. However, under the background of low processing cost, the factory has a maintenance plan. One PTA production line of Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in the near future, involving a production capacity of 2.5 million tons. Therefore, on the whole, PTA prices will remain narrow downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. On November 5, the price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton; On Friday (November 12), the price was 6220 yuan / ton, down 1.89% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 79.77%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fluctuated on the cost side, the guidance was not strong, the market focus turned to the demand side, the downstream demand was weak, coupled with the increase of cargo supply, mixed xylene continued to decline during the week. In the middle of the week, affected by the weather, the logistics in Shandong was blocked and the price rose slightly.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market rose slightly this week and fell broadly. On Friday (November 12), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 790.5 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton or 2.71% month on week compared with November 5; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $817 / T, down US $20 / T or 2.39% month on month on November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to stabilize this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 69.77% over the same period last year. As of November 12, the closing prices in Asia were US $905-907 / T FOB Korea and US $923-925 / T CFR China.

In the ox market, the ox price in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (November 12), the ox price in East China was 7200 yuan / ton, an increase of 63.64% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong fell this week. On November 12, the price was 7810.8 yuan / ton, down 0.96% from last week and up 48.81% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil fluctuated, the upward momentum weakened, and the support for mixed xylene weakened. Downstream PX device maintenance, demand softened again. On the whole, the stalemate of mixed xylene negotiation is still, and it is possible to continue to decline. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

The lead market (11.5-11.12) surged this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15475 yuan / ton last weekend and 15500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.16% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The lead price shown in the figure above has maintained a volatile trend for four consecutive weeks.

The trend of Lun lead market fluctuated this week. The mainstream range was between 2310-2385 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell, and the metal market was boosted and rose slightly. Later, as the US dollar market stopped falling and rebounded, the base metals began to operate under pressure, and Lun lead began to fall. In terms of inventory, LME inventory fell by about 600 tons during the week, which partially boosted the market. During the week, the trend of Shanghai lead fluctuated. It rose at the beginning of the week and fluctuated in the middle of the week. At the weekend, it was boosted by low inventory and other positive factors, and rose again.

The spot market mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead and is dominated by shocks. At present, the overall inventory of lead is still high, and the impact of power restriction policy on the overall market is gradually weak. The demand brought by storage enterprises’ sprint for annual tasks basically offsets the output growth brought by re production manufacturers. Although supported by downstream demand, it is still dominated by consumption of current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were silver (5.31%), aluminum (3.02%) and nickel (2.76%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 10.61%), antimony (- 5.13%) and praseodymium (- 0.92%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.57%, and most of the nonferrous metals markets rose.

The impact of power rationing policy has been ignored. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, the overall supply side is good, the recent demand recovery of downstream storage enterprises is good, and the supply and demand is good, but the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price. In the past month, under the restriction of demand recovery but high inventory, the lead price has continued to fluctuate. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of November 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 25666.67 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 26333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (8th), a decrease of 2.53% during the cycle and an increase of 81.18% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of November 15, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 50000 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan lower than the average price of 50666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (8th), a decrease of 1.32% in the cycle and 229.67% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of refrigerant R22 fell slightly and the market weakened. Last week, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose steadily and slightly, but the chloroform market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, coupled with the continued sluggish demand and the poor shipment of cargo holders, so they began to reduce the price. The ex factory prices of mainstream enterprises such as Juhua and Dongyue have not been greatly adjusted yet, and still hold the previous quotation, but the market focus began to decline. Up to now, the market quotation of R22 is still in the range of 23500-28000 yuan / ton, about 24500-27000 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 23500-25000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 24500-25000 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 24000-25000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu. The prices in various places are stable.

Recently, the price of refrigerant R134a fell slightly and the market weakened. Last week, the price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, rose steadily and slightly, with acceptable support, but there was no obvious cash withdrawal in the auto market. There was insufficient gas purchase in the downstream, the demand side continued to be weak, and there were few high price transactions. The ex factory price of mainstream enterprises remained high. Some dealers reduced their quotation significantly, with the price as low as 45000 yuan / ton. They reduced the price sharply to seek good sales, and the focus shifted downward. Up to now, the market price of R134a is in the range of 45000-55000 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 45000-51000 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 45000-46000 yuan / ton, and the price in Jiangsu is about 45000-51000 yuan / ton. The prices in various places are gradually reduced.

In terms of raw materials, on November 15, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was tight, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was higher, the recent price trend of fluorite was stable, which had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, but the overall trend was stable, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, and the actual demand changed little, Recently, the refrigerant market has a downward trend, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may be stable.

Methane chloride, according to the data monitoring of business society, the trichloromethane market fell sharply this week (11.8-11.12), and the price was 5175 yuan / ton as of November 12. Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the commencement of methane chloride unit is higher than that in the early stage, and the cost is low. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business community refrigerant analysts believe that the current demand is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market trading is negative, the price reduction sales profit shipment, and the market focus moves downward. It is expected that R22 and R134a may have further downward expectations in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP stabilized after a slight drop this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price fluctuated slightly this week and stabilized after falling, and the overall DOP market fell weakly this week. As of November 12, the DOP price was 12025 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton or 1.64% from 12225 yuan / ton on November 5 last weekend; The DOP market was weak and fell.

Isooctanol prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol fell slightly this week. Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise. This week, affected by the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas, the cost of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the phthalic anhydride market changed strongly this week, and the phthalic anhydride price fell sharply. The market of phthalic anhydride is general, the manufacturer’s operation is low, the delivery situation is general, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, the cost of DOP decreases, and the downward pressure of DOP increases.

PVC prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the bank’s desire rose. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the focus began to move upward. PVC market rose, which was good for DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that the support of DOP raw materials is not available this week. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fallen, the cost of DOP has fallen, the downward pressure of DOP has increased, the price of PVC has stopped falling and rebounded, the demand for DOP has improved, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers has warmed up, and the upward momentum of DOP has increased. Generally speaking, DOP costs have decreased and demand has warmed up. It is expected that DOP prices will stabilize in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 7433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1833.33 yuan / ton, down 24.66%, up 93.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell sharply this week.

Upstream cost support weakened and downstream demand fell sharply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 5300 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell 2200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 5500 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 1700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quoted 6000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan fell sharply this week. The quotation of Shenmu small material this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of Sinoma this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of big materials this weekend is 1900 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell sharply this week. The PVC quotation this week decreased from 10300.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 9340.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.32%, a year-on-year increase of 27.29%. PVC prices fell sharply this week, the market fell, and the enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. On the whole, PVC prices this week had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market went down, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the future

In the middle and early days of November, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell sharply, and the cost support of calcium carbide weakened. The downstream PVC market also began to fall sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of November.