Price Trend

This week (4.08-4.12) the domestic price of 1 # antimony ingot fell, and the average price in the domestic market was 43750 yuan/ton, which was flat.

On April 12, the Sb Commodity Index was 60.90, unchanged from yesterday, down 40.48% from its peak of 102.32 points in the cycle (2012-10-16), and up 29.63% from its low of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-08 to date).

II. Market Analysis

Upstream and downstream: domestic antimony sulfide concentrate (Sb < 55%) market quotation as of Friday is 3450-35500 yuan/metal ton, average price is 35000 yuan/metal ton; this Wednesday antimony oxide price followed the trend of antimony ingot to stop falling and stabilize, as of Friday 99.5% in 38500 yuan/ton, 99.8% in 39750 yuan/ton, downstream demand is still limited, the overall market outlook is mainly limited, transaction is limited, digestion of pre-inventory. Mainly.

Domestic market: Antimony ingot: This week, the price of antimony ingot is stable. As of December, the mainstream domestic price is 2_high bismuth antimony ingot 42250 yuan/ton, 2_low bismuth antimony ingot 43500 yuan/ton, 1_antimony ingot 44500 yuan/ton and 0_antimony ingot 45000 yuan/ton. The market of antimony ingots stopped falling and stabilized this week, boosted by the news of production shutdown in Lengshuijiang area.

Non-ferrous industry: Zhou Dollar’s performance first restrained and then rose, making the basic metals rise at the beginning of the week and then gradually fall back. On the weekend, it gave up the increase in the week and gave up its empty power.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, there will be a lot of data at home and abroad, and it is expected to continue to be good. Although macro-confidence tends to be positive, the US dollar is afraid to rise, commodities are still under pressure. Basic metals show different performances according to their fundamentals. Antimony ingot Market focuses on downstream demand.

I. Price Trend Chart of Sodium Pyrosulfite in China

According to the monitoring of business associations, this week the domestic sodium pyrosulfite went ahead steadily as a whole. The average weekly price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 1983.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 1983.33 yuan/ton at the weekend. The overall price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite went ahead steadily.

II. Market Analysis

In April, the overall domestic market of sodium pyrosulfite is still in the off-season. This week, the domestic market price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite is between 1800 and 2150 yuan/ton, and most of the prices are around 2000 yuan/ton. Enterprise production is stable, inventory is relatively sufficient, market turnover is light, mainly to complete old customer orders, new orders increase is limited. (The above prices refer to the foreign quotations of the mainstream domestic enterprises, some of which are not reported for the time being. The prices are for reference only. They have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturers. For details, please contact the manufacturers for consultation.

Industry chain: This week domestic prices of sulphur and soda continue to fluctuate at the bottom, processing costs continue to be low, and the price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future is insufficient.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business analysts believe that the low processing costs, weak market demand in off-season, prudent downstream purchasing, many negative pressures, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to move forward at the bottom in the short term.

On April 9, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 93.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 33.66% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 73.84% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower recently, up to 10 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10183.33 yuan/ton, and the domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on-site is normal at present, and the situation of on-site goods is poor in the near future. Some enterprises have increased their stocks of hydrofluoric acid, while the ex-factory price has been slightly lower recently due to the market price of raw materials. Particularly weak, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 9500-10500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9500-10500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent weakness of the raw material market trend, fluorite price trend slightly lower, has a negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices are temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor market situation, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower.

Refrigerant field transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but upstream fluorite prices are weak, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, PC market prices fell slightly in early April. As of April 4, the mainstream offer price of domestic producers and traders was 19666.67 yuan/ton.

II. Cause Analysis

PC upstream bisphenol A market declined slightly at the beginning of the month, business confidence is insufficient, downstream factories still have inventory, just need to purchase, demand weakened, and the market is generally bearish, the outlook may be poor. Affected by it, the quotation of merchants is loose and the quotation is falling. The cost support of PC market in China is insufficient. The domestic PC plant has a good start-up rate and the production capacity of individual factories is gradually rising. The main theme of the contradiction between supply and demand remains unchanged, the turnover is light, the downstream demand is slow, and the quotation is reduced.

3. Future Market Forecast

PC analysts at business associations believe that the domestic PC market is weak in early April, and the recent trend is likely to continue the weak consolidation.

On April 2, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 95.96, unchanged from yesterday, down 31.67% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 79.06% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly declining recently. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market is 10408.33 yuan/ton as of the 3rd day, and the starting rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is about 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid spot source is normal at present, and that the market situation of hydrofluoric acid is poor in the near future. Some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks, and their ex-factory prices have been slightly lower recently due to the market price of raw materials. The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 1000-10500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent weakness of the raw material market trend, fluorite price trend slightly lower, has a negative impact on hydrofluoric acid, hydrofluoric acid market price trend slightly declined.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices are temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-19,000 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price of R134a is declining, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Recently, due to the poor market situation, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market has been slightly lower.

Refrigerant field transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but upstream fluorite prices are weak, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly lower.

On April 1, the PX commodity index was 64.80, unchanged from yesterday, down 36.72% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 42.26% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhai Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. Due to the increase of domestic market supply of p-xylene, the market for p-xylene has increased. Prices are declining. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On April 1, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia increased by 4 US dollars/ton. The closing price is 1033-1035 US dollars/ton FOB in Korea and 1053-1054 US dollars/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The rise of foreign prices has a positive impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price of p-xylene remains stable.

In April 1, the price of WTI crude oil in May rose to $61.59 per barrel, an increase of $1.45. Brent crude oil in June rose to $69.01 per barrel, an increase of $1.43. The trend of crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products and had a stable trend in the price of paraxylene market. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price trend slightly increased on the 2nd day, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6650-6750 yuan/ton, as of the 2nd day domestic PTA start-up rate is about 75%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 90%, downstream production and sales rate slightly increased, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that PX Market prices will remain stable in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt prices fell sharply in March, with the lowest price on March 26. After that, cobalt prices recovered, showing a momentum to stop falling and rising. From March 17 to March 23, cobalt prices fell by 7.13%, the biggest one-week decline in recent years. As of March 31, the quotation of cobalt market was 259666.67 yuan/ton, down 12.23% from 295833.34 yuan/ton at the beginning of March, up 2.30% from 253833.33 yuan/ton on March 26, and the declining trend of cobalt price slowed down after the biggest one-week decline in March, and rebounded at the end of the month. The cobalt market has a momentum of stopping the decline and rebounding.

II. Market Analysis

Market Trend Analysis

In January-February 2019, the output of new energy vehicles broke out and increased to 150,000, and the batteries grew to 7.31 million degrees, an increase of 213% over the same period last year. The start of January-February was super strong. From January to February 2019, the production and sales of new energy vehicles and batteries have been booming. The overall market demand for new energy vehicles has risen, which is good for the demand of cobalt market. However, with the further implementation of the new subsidy policy, new energy vehicles will continue to grow, which is good for the market of cobalt.

In terms of consumer batteries, major battery manufacturers have indicated that demand has remained stable in the near future and has not improved significantly. Due to the continuous price reduction of lithium cobalt oxide materials and weak downstream demand, some manufacturers of lithium cobalt oxide materials have insufficient power to start construction recently.

Policies and regulations

In the government work report of 2019 issued by the two sessions, it put forward “promoting the construction of charging and hydrogenation facilities”, which is the first time hydrogen energy has been written into the government work report. Fuel cell vehicle is one of the main forms of hydrogen energy application. The development of fuel cell will offset the development of lithium battery vehicle to a certain extent. The state’s investment in hydrogen fuel cell vehicle will form a competitive relationship with lithium battery vehicle to a certain extent. The growth of lithium battery vehicle will be limited in the future, and the growth of lithium battery will slow down. Demand for cobalt market is negative.

On the afternoon of March 26, the new version of the new energy vehicle promotion subsidy scheme on the official website of the Ministry of Finance of the People’s Republic of China came out in a flash, with a huge decline. Compared with the subsidy method in 2018, the main structure of the new policy has not changed. The subsidy amount is still calculated according to the three dimensions of driving mileage, energy density and vehicle energy consumption, and a transitional period is set up. The transitional period is from March 26, 2019 to June 25, 2019. During the transitional period, the licensed vehicles that meet the requirements of the 2018 technical indicators but do not meet the requirements of the 2019 technical indicators shall be subsidized 0.1 times as much as the corresponding standards in accordance with the Circular of the Development and Reform Commission of the Ministry of Finance, Science and Technology, Industry and Information Technology on the Adjustment and Improvement of the Financial Subsidy Policy for the Promotion and Application of New Energy Vehicles (No. 18, Finance Construction, 2018), and the licensed vehicles that meet the requirements of the 2019 technical Vehicles are subsidized by 0.6 times the corresponding standard in 2018. During the transitional period, the sale of top-brand fuel cell vehicles is subsidized by 0.8 times the corresponding standard in 2018. Subsidies for fuel cell vehicles and new energy buses will be announced separately. The further decline of the subsidy standard in 2019 will inevitably affect the future production and sales of lithium battery electric vehicles. At the same time, due to the state’s investment in hydrogen energy vehicles, market funds will be diverted. The growth of lithium battery electric vehicles in the future will be severely tested, which will have a negative impact on the future market of cobalt.

Enterprise dynamics

Havilah Resources plans to carry out detailed and high-resolution aeroelectromagnetic exploration or AEM in Mutooroo Copper-Cobalt Area, New South Wales, Eastern Australia, in order to explore more cobalt resources. The Mutooroo Copper-Cobalt Deposit contains 8400 tons of cobalt. Cobalt mining enterprises increase their efforts in cobalt exploration. Cobalt mining enterprises are optimistic about the future of the cobalt market, which is beneficial to the cobalt market.

Australian company Magnis Energy Technologies (ASX: MNS) announced that its battery company IM3NY (Imperium 3 New York) has received a $52 million (350 million yuan) fund for lithium-ion battery production in the United States. International giants add lithium batteries, lithium batteries market prospects are good, but lithium batteries business competition intensified, lithium batteries demand for cobalt or short-term turbulence, future market demand for cobalt lithium batteries is generally good.

Volkswagen plans to build a battery recycling plant in Salzgitter, Germany. Since 2020, the plant will receive nearly 1200 tons of spent lithium battery packs annually. Recycling and reuse of waste batteries will reduce the demand for cobalt ore in the market and increase the supply of cobalt metal in the market, which will have a negative impact on the price of cobalt in general.

International Cobalt Price

The MB standard cobalt price on March 29 was $13.75-14.4 per pound, which was higher than that on March 22. The alloy cobalt price was $13.9-14.8 per pound, which was higher than that on March 22. The international cobalt price has stopped falling and rebounded, which is good for the domestic cobalt market, and the domestic cobalt price in the future has sufficient momentum to rise.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the cobalt price stopped falling and rebounded at the end of March. The cobalt price has touched a turning point, and the cobalt price will rebound at any time, starting a new round of rise. But now the market investment in cobalt market tends to be more rational, and the future cobalt price is more affected by the relationship between supply and demand. The phenomenon of sharp rise and fall may be difficult to appear.

In the future, the sustained and high-speed growth of new energy vehicles ensures the growth of cobalt demand for new energy vehicles, but the production and sales of smart phone products are declining, the prospects for 5G products are uncertain, the overall demand growth of cobalt market is limited, and the overall cobalt market is bad; in terms of national policy, the further decline of subsidies for new energy vehicles and the increase of support for hydrogen energy vehicles, lithium battery vehicles. Future market growth is bad; in the international market, the rapid growth of global lithium battery vehicles, German lithium battery subsidy plus code, and increased investment of international automobile enterprises in lithium battery vehicles are all good for future cobalt Market demand; at the same time, increased investment in recycling and reuse of waste batteries in the world will also have a certain impact on future cobalt prices, the overall future cobalt market has a mixed profit margin, cobalt market. It is still in the tripartite game among cobalt mining enterprises, government and downstream customers. With the stop and rise of cobalt price, the domestic cobalt price will rise inevitably in the future. However, excessive pursuit of high price and high growth will fall back into the speculative trap of international sellers. It is expected that the adjustment of cobalt price fluctuation or a small increase in the short term will be more likely, and the cobalt price will be difficult to break through 300,000 yuan/ton in the short term.

On March 27, the PX commodity index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has declined, the on-site plant Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily, the Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50%, the Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line, CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled, Hengli Petrochemical PX Plant has been put into operation, and other devices have been running steadily for the time being. Prices are declining. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 27, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by US$1/ton. The closing price is US$1016-1018/ton FOB Korea and US$1035-1037/ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the intra market price of p-xylene dropped sharply.

On March 27, the price of WTI crude oil in May fell to $59.41 per barrel, a decline of $0.53. Brent crude oil in May fell to $67.83 per barrel, a decline of $0.14. The fluctuation of crude oil price has little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products, and the price of paraxylene market is lower affected by supply. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA price fluctuation on 28 days, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6500-6650 yuan/ton, as of 28 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate remains volatile, but PTA market price changes little, it is expected that later PX market prices will be slightly lower.

On March 24, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 25th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, up to 25th day, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little influence on the ammonium nitrate market, while the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, up to 25th day, the market price of liquid ammonia is 3450 yuan/ton. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market price was temporarily stable this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic granular sulfur ex-factory price was about 1,143.33 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the average domestic granular sulfur ex-factory price was about 1,143.33 yuan/ton, and the price was stable within the week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the sulphur market is mainly weak, the buyers and sellers are deadlocked, the real information is scarce, the interest of terminal enterprises in purchasing is low, and there is a lack of information guidance on the spot, and the negotiation atmosphere is weak. This week, refineries in various regions in China showed different performances. Shandong maintained stable operation. The prices of refineries in North China and East China rose 20-80 yuan/ton. Prices in most regions increased slightly by 10-80 yuan/ton. As of the 22nd, Sinopec’s price of sulphur in Shandong was stable. The mainstream price of solid sulphur was 1190-1230 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulphur was 190-1180 yuan/ton. The price of sulphur in the region is stable. The mainstream price of solid sulphur is between 1030 and 1100 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulphur is between 1000 and 1120 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The price trend of downstream sulfuric acid has been slightly reduced, with a price of 357.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 345.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a drop of 3.5%. This week, the bromine market has been running steadily and the average price of bromine has remained around 35,000 yuan/ton during the week, up 26.74% from the same period last year. In the short run, the sulfuric acid market has little fluctuation. Considering the arrival of centralized maintenance plan for sulfuric acid enterprises or the possibility of flexible price increase, the sulfur market upstream will also be flexibly adjusted.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulphur analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the supply and demand performance of the market is not obvious, there is no news guide, downstream buyers with insufficient documentary orders mainly to consume, demand is limited, in the short term, the sulfur market will continue to be vulnerable to consolidation.

Aluminum prices bottomed out in 2018, hovering at year-round lows, with a range of 13,450-15,000 yuan/ton. In the first nine months, the price of aluminium has been running in a “W” trend. In the fourth quarter, the price of aluminium has been falling monotonously.

The average price of aluminium ingot market continued to be weak in the first ten days of January 2019. On January 15, the average price of aluminium ingot market fell to 13223.33 yuan/ton, which was the lowest level in the past two years. Then the price of aluminium ingot began to rise steadily. According to the data of business associations, the average price of aluminium (99.70) market as of March 21 was 14036.67 yuan/ton, up 5.59% compared with the average price of 13350 yuan/ton on the first working day of February 12. The price rose by 6.15% on January 15.

It is reported that due to the sharp fall in aluminium prices in the fourth quarter of 2018, high-cost aluminium factories suffer serious losses. Some domestic aluminium factories have gradually reduced production and pressure, and the phenomenon of industry independent capacity removal is obvious. Among them, the provinces with the most output reduction are Henan (533,000 tons), Gansu (500,000 tons) and Qinghai (285,000 tons). The common problem in these areas is the high cost of electricity price, which in turn raises the overall production cost, and is also the area where price drops are the first to be hit.

According to data released Wednesday by the International Aluminum Industry Association (IAI), global raw aluminium production fell to 492,000 tons in February, compared with 5411,000 tons revised in January. China’s output is estimated to fall to 2.78 million tons in February and to 3.07 million tons in January.

The data show that at the beginning of this year, the capacity removal effect of aluminium ingots is obvious, which provides the motive force for the rebound of low aluminium prices in supply and demand. Aluminum prices are expected to remain stable or continue to improve in the near future.

On March 18, the PX Commodity Index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 18, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 18 US dollars per ton. The closing price is US$106-1068 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1085-1087 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 18, the price of WTI crude oil in May rose to $59.09 per barrel, an increase of $0.57. The price of Brent crude oil in May fell to $67.54 per barrel, a decrease of $0.38. The price of crude oil rose slightly, which had little effect on the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene was stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined on the 19th, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6500-6600 yuan/ton, as of the 19th domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate has risen, but PTA market prices are lower, it is expected that PX market prices will remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

Business Club: Narrow Ranking Trend of Maleic Anhydride Market this week (3.11-3.15)

According to the data of business associations, the average price of maleic anhydride offer by the end of the weekend was 7600.00 yuan/ton (all including tax), and the trend of weak consolidation of the offer.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the domestic maleic anhydride market as a whole is in a weak state of consolidation.

Industry chain: Firstly, the domestic unsaturated resin factories resumed slowly this week, the downstream demand was insufficient, resin factories still mainly digested inventory, the domestic maleic anhydride market was narrowly sorted, and negotiations were weak; secondly, the mainstream factories were mainly vulnerable to sorting out quotations. The fluctuation of crude oil in the periphery affects the intra-field mentality. Crude Oil supports the market. The pure benzene of raw material is loosened. The n-butane performance of raw material is strong. In the short run, the profit margins of benzene and butane maleic anhydride remain stable. At the same time, Dongying Code and Qifa are still parking, and the start-up rate is expected to rise next week. Finally, downstream warehouse replenishment is cautious, logistics recovery is slow, and factories are mainly on the lookout.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is likely to remain tidy in the near future, and the overall price may be the same as this week, according to the analyst of maleic anhydride products of Business Society Chemical Branch.

On March 13, the PX Commodity Index was 72.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.69% from its peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 58.07% from its low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has started a line. CNOOC Huizhou Refinery and Chemical Plant has been overhauled. Other units have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene is normal. The market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia is about 80%. On March 13, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 9 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$1091-1093 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1112 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of the domestic units need to be imported. The decline of foreign prices has a positive and negative impact on the domestic market price of p-xylene, and the price of p-xylene in the market fluctuates.

On March 13, the price of WTI crude oil in April rose to 58.26 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.39 U.S. dollars. The price of Brent crude oil in May rose to 67.55 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.88 U.S. dollars. Crude oil price rose slightly, which had little impact on the price of downstream petrochemical products. The price trend of paraxylene market was temporarily stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices declined 14 days, the average price of East China is around 6500-6700 yuan/ton, as of 14 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 84%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 80%, downstream production and sales rate has risen, but PTA market prices are lower, and the price of PX market is expected to remain volatile in the later period.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 13, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 11066 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was running steadily.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market is running steadily, downstream caprolactam demand for cyclohexanone is general, chemical fiber order price has slightly fallen, solvent market needs to be purchased, high-price transaction is general. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in the North China market is delivered in cash from 1100 to 11200, the mainstream offer in the East China market is delivered in cash from 1130 to 11500, and the mainstream offer in the South China market is delivered in cash from 1160 to 11800.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: Driven by the warming of crude oil and large futures products, the focus of pure benzene negotiations has warmed up slightly. The spot purchase price is 4730 yuan/ton and the sale price is 4750 yuan/ton. Caprolactam: The liquid spot market of caprolactam is temporarily stable. The supply of caprolactam is still acceptable. The downstream polymerization plant just needs to be purchased. The on-site trading atmosphere is general. On the solid side, the middleman still operates with him. The downstream stock consumption is slow and the high-price transaction is not good.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost-side support is still acceptable, factory spot supply is normal, downstream chemical fiber market high price conflict, price negotiation. Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is mainly weak consolidation.

On March 11, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 98.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.84% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 83.86% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic hydrofluoric acid market price fluctuation, as of the 12th day, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10 816.67 yuan/ton, the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is more than 60%, enterprises reflect the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, recent on-site goods generally, some enterprises have increased hydrofluoric acid inventory, factory prices remain low, due to recent price shocks in the raw material market. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is stable for the time being. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,500-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices remain low, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent upward trend in the raw material market, fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, for hydrofluoric acid has some favorable support, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market shocks.

Recent downstream refrigerant product units started to rise, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has increased, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid product prices temporarily stable. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price rises to 18500-19000 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has risen, and the delivery market has risen. The domestic market price of R134a has risen slightly, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the improvement of the goods, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions have risen, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate has increased, for the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand may increase, coupled with the upstream fluorite price has an upward trend, March is the peak season of air conditioning production, the downstream refrigeration industry is expected to rise, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may be slightly higher.

I. The price trend of epichlorohydrin:

According to the data from the business associations’list, as of March 11, epichlorohydrin was 13233.33 yuan/ton (all including taxes), which was 1.49% lower than last week’s No. 4. Today, the mainstream price of epichlorohydrin in China is 12700-13700 yuan/ton.

2. Market analysis:

Products: Epichlorohydrin market trend is weak, the delivery atmosphere is flat, factory shipment pressure, inventory increase.

Industry chain: Propylene support in the upstream is weak, and follow-up in the downstream is insufficient, resulting in pressure on factory shipments.

3. Future market forecast:

It is expected that short-term domestic market quotation of epichlorohydrin is mainly weak.

Price Trend

Cobalt prices continued to fall this week, according to data from business associations. As of March 8, the cobalt market quoted 290833.34 yuan/ton, down 3333.32 yuan/ton, or 1.13 percent, from 294166.66 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week. The cobalt price continued its downturn and the cobalt price fell.

II. Market Analysis

Trend analysis

On March 8, Cui Dongshu, Secretary-General of the National Passenger Vehicle Market Information Association, released the national passenger vehicle market analysis data in February 2019: In February, the retail sales of passenger vehicles reached 11.7 million units, down 19.0% and 45.9% year-on-year. As a result, the cumulative retail sales of 33.33 million units in January-February this year decreased by 9.8% year-on-year. Among them, in 2019, the new energy vehicles continue to maintain the strong trend of opening the door red. In February, sales of new energy vehicles increased by 74.4% compared with the same period last year, while in January-February, new energy vehicles were wholesaled by 143,000 units, with a cumulative increase of 80,000 units and a cumulative increase of 133.8%. In February, Class A electric vehicles accounted for 53.0% of pure electric vehicles, achieving higher quality growth. Although the new energy automobile policy “weaning” has a negative impact on the growth of new energy automobiles, the current new energy automobiles are still in the rising range, and the overall demand for cobalt for new energy automobiles is still in the rising space.

International Cobalt Price

On March 8, MB low-grade cobalt quoted $14.7-15.5 per pound, with a price drop of $0.15 per pound; high-grade cobalt quoted $14.6-15.75 per pound, with a price drop of $0.25 per pound; international cobalt price fell, which was bearish on domestic cobalt market, while the decline of international cobalt price slowed down and the pressure of falling cobalt price decreased.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that cobalt prices continue to decline this week, but the rate of decline in cobalt prices has slowed down, and the future cobalt prices are mainly stable. The long-term bottom of cobalt price is about 200,000 yuan/ton. Now the market cobalt price has reached 290,000 yuan/ton. It is difficult for cobalt price to fall below the historical low, and there is limited space for reduction of cobalt price. On the demand side, the decline of Smartphone Production and sales offset the growth of new energy vehicles. Generally, there is no new demand growth to bring benefits to the cobalt market, which is bad for the cobalt market. On the supply side, cobalt mining in the international market is still expanding, cobalt supply is increasing, and the overall supply and demand is still in the stage of oversupply. Generally speaking, the decline rate of cobalt price in the future market is bound to slow down. At this stage, it is a stage of market game. It is difficult to determine whether the price will rise or fall, but the falling space is limited. If cobalt price falls below 250,000 yuan/ton, it will encounter greater resistance. At the same time, the cobalt market is not fully motivated to rise. 350,000 yuan/ton is a high level that cobalt price is difficult to reach at this stage.

Recently, the methanol market, which has been silent for one month, has witnessed a wave of growth. As of February 18, the mainstream reference price of domestic methanol market was 2 280 yuan (ton price, the same below), up 3.45% from the beginning of the month. Among them, the market prices of Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia rose by about 50 yuan, Shandong by 20 yuan and Jiangsu by 20 to 40 yuan.

Industry insiders believe that the methanol port inventory has accumulated to a historic high, coupled with weak downstream demand, the methanol market continues to rise powerlessly.

HISTORICAL HIGH PORT STORAGE

Ma Nan, a methanol distributor in Liaoning Province, believes that due to the sharp increase in imports of methanol in the past two months and the impact of port depots and handling during the Spring Festival holidays, the recent accumulation of methanol port stocks has climbed to a high level in the same period in history, putting greater pressure on the market.

Statistics show that methanol imports reached 717,200 tons in December 2018, an increase of 136,700 tons compared with November, an increase of 23.56% over the same period; methanol imports reached 870,000 tons in January 2019, which exceeded the average level of 150,000 tons in the same period, and port inventory has climbed to a historical high. At present, the inventory of methanol port has exceeded 1 million tons and increased to 1.085 million tons. Affected by the Spring Festival holidays, the speed of discharging and unloading is relatively slow. Some port warehouses carry about 750 tons of goods per day, which is less than 70% of the normal time. In addition, the recent import sources will come to the port one after another, and the port inventory may further increase.

“At present, the inventory of ports in East China is 610,000 tons, and in South China it is the first time that it exceeds 200,000 tons. The total of the two is over 800,000 tons, which is about double the average level in the past five years. The huge accumulated inventory will exert significant pressure on the market and depress the price of methanol to continue to rise. Ma Nan said.

Centralized maintenance has little effect.

In the near future, the methanol market will usher in a period of centralized maintenance at home and abroad, and the supply is expected to decrease. However, in the case of the re-production of methanol plant from natural gas, the commissioning of new plant and the rise of industry start-up rate, the impact of plant overhaul on the market is not significant.

Ma Nan’s analysis shows that with the warming of the weather, the spring overhaul of methanol plants in China is about to begin. In March and April, the overhaul capacity is nearly 10 million tons, and about 80% of the overhaul capacity is concentrated in the Northwest region. Subsequently, in May and June, some installations in Shanghai, Qinghai and other places also had maintenance plans. However, compared with previous years, this year’s maintenance loss capacity is basically flat, and will not have a particularly significant impact on the market.

Internationally, KMI’s 660,000 tons/year plant, Qatar’s 900,000 tons/year plant and Malaysia Petronas Petrochemical Company’s 1.7 million tons/year plant are all in the phase of shutdown or planned maintenance in the near future, and the supply of methanol in the overseas market will be tight. However, foreign equipment maintenance usually first ensures continuous long-term supply, so it has little impact on domestic market supply.

On the other hand, with the end of the peak period of heating gas in winter, a large number of natural gas methanol plants will resume production, which will promote the industry start-up rate.

According to Dong Chao, an analyst at Shenyin Wanguo Futures Research Institute, natural gas methanol plants such as Jiuyuan, Kabella, Chuanwei and Lutianhua will be restarted in early February, with a total capacity increase of about 1.65 million tons per year. And a large number of natural gas methanol plants will be opened in the later period. At the same time, Hengli Petrochemical’s new 500,000 tons/year methanol plant is also planned to be put into operation in the first half of this year, which will further increase the supply of goods. Therefore, although there are domestic equipment routine overhaul support, but the re-production and new production devices will offset the loss of overhaul capacity, overhaul will not have a greater impact on market supply.

Weak downstream demand performance

At present, just after the Spring Festival holidays, the traditional downstream enterprises of methanol have a slow recovery, limited substantive production and weak demand performance. Emerging demand for methanol to olefins is affected by the market, and the start-up rate is not high, so it is difficult to form a strong support for the methanol market.

Ma Nan introduced that the overall performance of traditional demand is general, and recovery still needs some time. At present, only a few manufacturers in the formaldehyde industry return to the market, the industry start-up rate has dropped sharply, manufacturers mainly wait-and-see finishing, the market atmosphere is still light; dimethyl ether, some plant shutdown or negative operation led to a decline in the start-up rate, some start-up enterprises due to sufficient pre-holiday stock, but also in a centralized digestion of inventory, the overall trend is weak.

In terms of emerging demand, due to the persistent weakness of PP and PE markets, the profit of domestic methanol olefin industry has declined, and the enthusiasm of enterprises has been affected. The average start-up rate of the plant is about 82%, down 0.59 percentage points from last month, which makes it difficult to drive methanol demand.

Generally speaking, the port inventory at the historical high level, the repairing of overhaul capacity by re-production and new plant commissioning, and the overall weakness of downstream demand make the current rising methanol market continue to have insufficient momentum. It is expected that the downward breakthrough of the methanol market will become a probable event.

On March 3, the fluorite commodity index was 103.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.81% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 110.34% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the recent domestic fluorite price trend continued to decline, the average domestic fluorite price was 2930 yuan/ton as of the 4th day. Due to the warmer weather, the recent start-up of domestic fluorite devices, the opening of mines and flotation devices, the supply of fluorite in the field increased relatively, but the recent downstream market is not good, the price of fluorite market slightly declined. Recently, the temperature has risen and the start-up rate of fluorite flotation units in the North has risen, but the downstream units have started to operate normally, the fluorite spot supply in the field is sufficient, and the downstream terminal receipts are not active, resulting in a decline in market prices. As of the 1st day, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2400-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 2700-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 2600-3100 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 2600-3100 yuan/ton, and the price of fluorite is declining.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite declined. As of the 4th day, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11075 yuan/ton, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid continued to decline. In addition, the upstream refrigerant product plant started generally, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant market is cool, the price of hydrofluoric acid products slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant plant surface starts at 70%, R22 market device start-up rate does not change much, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 1700-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipment. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a fluctuates, the start-up rate of production enterprises is low, the refrigerant market demand is weakened, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price has not changed much, and the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened due to on-demand purchasing by merchants. Generally speaking, there are many downstream negative factors, together with the restart of fluorite market devices, fluorite prices have a downward trend, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market prices may continue to fall.

At a time when OPEC has drastically reduced production and Venezuelan exports have rarely fallen to a low level, the one-week scale of crude oil imports from the United States has reached the lowest level in 23 years.

Data released by the U.S. Energy Information Agency (EIA) last night showed that crude oil imports fell by 1.61 million barrels a day in the week of February 22, the lowest level since 1996. Among them, 346,000 barrels of crude oil were imported from Saudi Arabia per day, a record one-week low.

The data also showed that refinery capacity utilization on the East Coast of the United States dropped to 60%, the lowest since 2012.

Meanwhile, U.S. crude oil production has increased by 100,000 barrels per day to 12.1 million barrels per day, a record one-week high. In addition, Kuxin’s crude oil stocks have reached a one-week high since December 2017.

It is worth noting that while the United States has been ramping up crude oil production, they have been pressing OPEC to cut production quotas for a long time, while sanctioning Venezuela and Iran on the other side, which has sharply reduced their exports.

Bob Dudley, BP’s chief executive, recently commented on the U.S. increase in production at the International Oil and Gas Weekly Conference in London.

The United States is probably the only country in the world that responds exclusively to output adjustments to market signals, as if it were a brainless market. Unlike Saudi Arabia and Russia, which also regulate supply in response to excess or shortage of markets, the United States responds only to price signals.

However, the Trump administration seems dissatisfied with the higher oil prices. Earlier this week, Trump again complained on Twitter about high oil prices and asked OPEC to relax its efforts to raise oil prices. “Oil prices are too high. OPEC, relax and relax. The world can’t stand the rise in oil prices – it’s still fragile! “

But this time OPEC seems to have been unaffected by Trump. Saudi Energy Minister Farleh said recently that they may prolong production cuts in the second half of the year. In addition, when asked about Trump’s tweet, Fallich responded: “We’re taking it easy.”

Some oil and gas industry leaders believe that oil prices may rise further.

Russell Hardy, chief executive of Vitol, the world’s largest energy trader, said oil prices would rise further as OPEC production cuts and U.S. sanctions against Iran and Venezuela led to a “shortage” of heavy crude oil on which refineries depend. “In the next six months, a large supply may be squeezed. The OPEC decision means less oil to choose from, the Iranian situation means less oil to choose from, and Venezuela’s current situation is even worse.

“From now on, oil prices may have the potential to rise further. By the third quarter, the supply will be rather tight. Russell Hardy says.

The price of caustic soda in China maintained stable operation on February 26. According to the survey data of business associations, the commodity index of caustic soda on February 25 was 124.22, up 0.48 points from yesterday, down 39.95% from 206.87 points in the cycle (2017-11-14), and up 69.54% from 73.27 points on March 29, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

The price of caustic soda in Shandong is stable for the time being. The mainstream price of 32% caustic soda in Shandong is 810-920 yuan/ton. Shandong market traders are flexible in delivering goods, and the overall market turnover is scarce. It is expected that prices will be stable in the near future. The mainstream price of 32% alkali in Jiangsu is 850-910 yuan/ton, which can be negotiated in practice. The transaction is relatively stable. It is expected that the short-term price will run more steadily.

Business analysts believe that the current market demand has not changed much, the supply of caustic soda is relatively stable. The demand situation in downstream areas is general, the market lacks substantial good support, the speed of enterprises’moving goods slows down, and sales are not ideal. At the end of February, the market is waiting for the purchase of alumina enterprises, and some manufacturers reduce prices, and the cost support is insufficient. It is expected that in the near future, the overall consolidation operation will be the main task, specifically looking at the downstream market demand.

Moscow, Feb. 13, Reuters reported that an energy industry source told Reuters that Russia’s average daily oil production from February to December was 11.34 million barrels per day, 70,000 barrels per day less than the reference month of the October global production reduction agreement.

The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and other global oil producers agreed in December to cut their total production by 1.2 million barrels a day to support oil prices and try to balance markets. Russia is cutting production from 11.41 million barrels a day in October.

OPEC and other global oil producers agreed last December to cut their total production by 1.2 million barrels a day to support oil prices and try to balance the market. Russia is cutting production from 11.41 million barrels a day in October.

Alexander Novak, Russia’s energy minister, said this month that oil production in January was 47,000 barrels a day lower than in October.

On February 12, the rare earth index was 345 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.50% from the cyclical peak of 1000 points (2011-12-06), and up 27.31% from the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-12-01 to date).

The average price of neodymium, dysprosium and praseodymium in rare earth metals is 398,000 yuan/ton, 1,655,000 yuan/ton and 660,000 yuan/ton respectively. The average price of praseodymium and neodymium oxide in rare earth oxides is 315,000 yuan/ton; dysprosium oxide is 1.21 million yuan/ton; praseodymium oxide is 397,500 yuan/ton; and neodymium oxide is 315,000 yuan/ton. The price of praseodymium and neodymium alloys in rare earth alloys is 399.5 million yuan per ton, and the average price of dysprosium and iron alloys is 1.22 million yuan per ton.

Recently, 12 departments have seriously dealt with illegal enterprises such as reselling illegal rare earth minerals, resulting in the cold trade in the domestic rare earth market. Some commodity prices in the rare earth market have declined, mainly concentrated in Praseodymium-Neodymium alloys and neodymium oxides. The price fluctuation of rare earth market is related to environmental protection supervision in the whole country. Rare earth production has its particularity, especially the radiation hazard of some products, which makes environmental protection supervision stricter. Under stringent environmental protection, rare earth separation enterprises in many provinces have stopped production, resulting in a decline in the market of rare earth oxides, making the price of rare earth products firm. Especially for some mainstream rare earth oxides, the supply performance is tight, the price trend of some commodities in the rare earth market is stable, the willingness of large enterprise groups to limit production in the near future, the market of rare earth has improved, but for the pricing of products, major manufacturers are cautious to wait and see. Recent rare earth export market is general, resulting in a decline in imports, which has a negative impact on the rare earth market. However, due to the limited volume, the price trend of some rare earth products is weak, but the price trend of most products is temporarily stable.

Eight inspecting groups composed of Ministry of Industry and Information Technology, Development and Reform Commission, Ministry of Natural Resources and other ministries went to various places and launched special inspecting actions against eight provinces and regions of Inner Mongolia, Jiangxi, Jiangsu, Fujian, Hunan, Guangdong, Guangxi and Sichuan, which are the main producing areas of rare earths. Prior to this, six departments of Jiangxi Province, a major producer of rare earth, jointly issued a special action document on cracking down on rare earth blacks, and conducted special supervision from September 2018 to January 2019. Due to the increasingly obvious regulatory effect, the supply of raw ore resources in the upstream of the rare earth industry has shrunk, and the trading market of the rare earth industry has been cold.

Rare earth analysts of business associations expect that the domestic environmental stringent inspection will not decrease in the near future, and the domestic reorganization of the order of the inhalation industry will have a certain positive impact on the rare earth industry. However, near the Spring Festival, the turnover of rare earth industry is limited, and the turnover of the rare earth industry is cold, and the price trend of the rare earth market is expected to be temporarily stable.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market declined in January. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic granular sulfur was about 18,500 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the average price of domestic granular sulfur was about 14,066.67 yuan/ton. The average price of domestic granular sulfur dropped 23.96% in the month, 53.58% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic sulphur market rose first and then fell in January. Influenced by the spot market in Hong Kong, the mainstream port stock is not high, the market is supported by a small amount, the trader’s price-fixing mentality is obvious, the willingness to make profits and deliver goods is not strong, and downstream buyers are mainly on the lookout. In the early period, it rose slightly, but in the later period, it fell as a whole. As of January 31, the mainstream quotation of solid sulfur is between 1050 and 1410 yuan/ton, and liquid sulfur is between 1150 and 1350 yuan/ton.

Industry Chain: In January, the domestic bromine market in the downstream maintained stable operation, with a slight increase of 1.15% in the month and a sharp increase of 18.61% over the same period last year. After winter, the domestic bromine market has been operating at a low level for a long time, and the stock of enterprises has been exhausted. Most enterprises stop until the end of February and the beginning of March. The market turnover is flat and the price of bromine is stable.

Industry: Domestic refineries maintain low inventory operation before the festival. Local refineries maintain stable prices until after the Spring Festival. Local refineries still have downward space, which is difficult to support the mindset of the operators. In the short run, the trend of vulnerable consolidation in Sulfur City is hard to change.

3. Future Market Forecast

With the approaching of the Spring Festival, demand is further weakening. Negotiations on internal and external markets lack information guidance, and on-site stalemate dominates. Sulphur analysts at business associations believe that the price of sulphur will continue to be stable in the near future.

The Messenger of Chile reported on January 21 that Ensorcia, a US company, invested $220 million in the exploitation and production of lithium in the Aguilar Salt Lake in the third largest region (Atacama) in the fourth quarter of this year in cooperation with Enami.

Unlike the traditional lithium extraction technology in solar evaporation pools, Ensorcia will adopt a technology called MU, in which mobile devices are installed near Salt Lakes to extract lithium mixtures and then inject lake water and other minerals back into salt lakes. This technology has been successfully tested in the United States and is expected to be commercialized in Chile.

Ensorcia has negotiated cooperation with the Chilean government since 2016 and has reached an agreement, with Enami holding 10% of the shares. The project plan is divided into two stages: the initial stage is to produce 40% lithium chloride and 90% brine is injected back into the salt lake; the second stage will produce 99.9% battery-grade lithium carbonate. Ensorcia said that the first stage of investment comes from the company’s own funds, and the second stage will be financing from banks, which are currently in talks with several Chilean and foreign banks.

Price Trend

The domestic dimethyl ether market fell first and then rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic dimethyl ether market price was 3436.67 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 3300 yuan/ton. Within the week, it rose by 3.98%, and the price fell by 25.03% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the dimethyl ether market fell first and then rose, and the trading atmosphere improved. Hebei Yutai dimethyl ether plant stopped for maintenance on September 13 and has not been opened up yet. Henan Lankao Huitong resumed its quotation on June 16. As of January 25, the ex-factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan is 3280 yuan/ton, Lankao Huitong, Henan is 3300 yuan/ton, Yima, Henan is 3320 yuan/ton, Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd is 3450 yuan/ton, Shengdeyuan, Dezhou, Shandong is 3350 yuan/ton, and Yuhuang, Shandong is 3350 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of dimethyl ether in Shanxi Orchid Science and Technology Venture Co., Ltd. is 3140 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic methanol market has experienced a narrow fluctuation. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic methanol market price was 2214 yuan/ton, which was 0.18% higher than that of the same period last year, and 14.40% lower than that of the same period last year. The domestic liquefied petroleum gas market dropped broadly this week. The average price of domestic liquefied petroleum gas market was 4100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 3890 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 5.12% in the week, 17.7% compared with the same period last year. At the beginning of the week, the liquefied petroleum gas market and methanol market continued to weaken, which affected the market mentality. The downstream market is full of hollowness, replenishment is on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. Continuous shipments from manufacturers were blocked and inventories increased. At the end of the weekend, the seller rebounded strongly and tried to purchase in the market under the influence of fear of rising in some terminals. With the end of the year approaching, a new round of terminal replenishment work is about to start and prices rebound.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 6 kinds of commodities in the rising and falling list of commodity prices in the energy sector in the 03rd week of 2019 (1.21-1.25). The top three commodities are power coal (0.47%), naphtha (0.42%) and asphalt (70) (0.42%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are liquefied natural gas (-15.33%), liquefied gas (-5.12%) and dimethyl ether (-3.98%). Average gains and losses this week were -1.93%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Dimethyl ether business analysts believe that near the Spring Festival, most end users intend to replenish goods strongly. It is expected that there will be a rebound in future stock market.

Since New Year’s Day, black varieties have stepped out of a relatively smooth upward trend, with the overall increase of nearly 10%. Today, iron ore main I1905 holds 955,000 hands, volume turnover 1.25 million hands, a substantial increase of 13,000 hands, up 1.61% to 535.5 yuan/ton, leading the rise in black goods. Next, we will make a further detailed analysis of the future market and trend.

1. Steady development measures have been introduced continuously, but macro downward pressure is still in place.

Recently, measures such as rapid and substantial reduction of the central bank, TMLF and early issuance of bonds have effectively boosted market sentiment. Various government departments at all levels have approved numerous projects of “capital construction supplement shortcomings board”. Some cities have introduced the “one city one policy” of marginal relaxation of real estate policy, which shows that the policy side is further turning to “moderate relaxation” to prevent the steady development of risk.

However, if we do not solve the problems of monetary transmission channels, mutual restriction of policies at all levels, and restriction of residents’consumption capacity, the effect and time of these policies will be greatly reduced. At the same time, the recently published economic data can only be understood as excessively pessimistic expectations that slightly exceed the market before, GDP in the fourth quarter will fall back to the lowest value since 1992, industrial added value and retail sales of social consumer goods. The total amount has also fallen to the lowest level in recent years, and the reports of some government documents and the recent “provincial and ministerial leading cadres adhere to the bottom line thinking and focus on preventing and resolving major risks” more intuitively show that macro-economy is still facing downward pressure, and iron ore should not be overly optimistic in the short term.

2. Iron ore fundamentals remain stable, but it is difficult to break through independently.

(1) Although the first quarter is traditionally off-season, short-term supply remains high.

Usually, in the first quarter, due to weather and other reasons, it is the traditional off-season for overseas mines; however, the data of overseas mines’shipment and arrival show that the short-term supply of foreign mines remains at a high level: as of January 20, the total shipment volume of Pakistan and Australia is 66.92 million tons, up 4.2 million tons/6.7% year-on-year; the arrival volume of northern ports is 30.47 million tons, down 74 million tons/2.4% year-on-year; and the expected arrival volume of northern ports is 21.67 million tons/year-on-year 10,000 tons, down 60,000 tons/0.3% year on year.

Due to the continuous improvement of environmental protection facilities, equipment and certificates, the domestic environmental safety supervision policy has been relaxed marginally over the same period of the year, and there are no major conferences or accidents in the near future, so the situation of geological and mining start-up is better. As of January 18, the productivity utilization rate of 266 mines in China was 60%, and the lunar calendar rose by 0.2 percentage points over the same period last year.

(2) The demand for replenishment of warehouses before the holidays is basically over, and the accumulation of port stocks will be accelerated.

At present, the demand for replenishment of steel plants before the festival has basically ended. According to WIND data, as of January 18, the available days of stock in steel mills were 32 days, and the lunar calendar increased by 3 days compared with the same period last year. According to MYSTTEL data, as of January 25, the available days of stock in steel mills were 34 days, and the lunar calendar decreased by 1 day compared with the same period last year.

And since late last month, the depot reduction cycle of iron ore ports has ended for nearly half a year, and the accumulation of port stocks will accelerate after the completion of pre-festival replenishment. As of January 18, port iron ore stocks stood at 143.73 million tons, which fell by 8 million tons/5.3% in the lunar calendar compared with the same period last year, and increased by 4.88 million tons/3.5% compared with the stocks on December 21, 2018.

(3) The demand for replenishment after the festival is higher, but the rhythm may be lengthened.

Due to the relaxation of environmental protection margin and the good overall profit of steel mills, the utilization rate of blast furnace capacity is on the high side, which makes the steel mills have a certain demand for normal replenishment. As of January 18, the national blast furnace start-up rate was 64.92%, and the lunar calendar increased by 0.83 percentage points over the same period of last year.

However, in terms of rhythm, due to the difficulty of rapid and clear overall black trend after the year, high stock and stable arrival of ports and other factors, the total amount of iron ore is guaranteed. Steel mills are likely to adopt a prudent attitude, lengthen the procurement rhythm, and avoid periodic centralized procurement to stimulate market sentiment.

3. Material production will lead the direction of later period. It still needs to be prudent whether it can recover quickly after the festival.

In the near future, due to factors such as real estate rush-up and other factors, the off-season consumption of finished products exceeds expectations, the cumulative inventory speed of finished products is slower and the overall inventory level is lower at higher output; and based on the current inventory base, output and consumption level, the total inventory of finished products after saving is lower than that of the same period of last year; due to factors such as inertia of real estate construction and steady recovery of infrastructure, the short-term demand for finished products will still be maintained. Therefore, it is expected that the supply and demand fundamentals of “leading sheep” in the later stage will be relatively stable.

However, the following two issues still need to be concerned: (1) after a long period of real estate rush, whether the demand for early start of construction after the festival is still urgent, whether the large-scale resumption time is after the Lantern Festival or after the two sessions in early March, and the variables that may be brought by the statistics of non-inventory, will have a greater impact on inventory accumulation and market sentiment; (2) under the background of marginal relaxation of environmental protection, Tangshan’s new production limit has recently been put in place. It is still unknown when, how and how to implement the draft for soliciting opinions. Under the condition that the profit of the steel mill is still acceptable and the capacity of increasing production has been greatly improved, the steel mill will still try its best to maintain a high production level, and the supply of finished products will be increased in the later period.

Generally speaking, the replenishment of iron ore before and after the festival has basically ended, although the demand for replenishment is high, the supply will increase steadily, and the overall fundamentals are relatively stable. Although the market is optimistic about the post-festival market such as “leading sheep” finished products, the impact of factors such as rework time and sustained high production still needs to be carefully verified; therefore, it is not appropriate to be overly optimistic in the short term, and due to the rapid base difference. After repair and rapid price rise, iron ore has been on the high side, and it is difficult for iron ore to continue to break through independently and substantially in the near future. And we should guard against the risk of falling back and repeated shocks near key positions.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 23, the average price of domestic aggregated MDI market was 12900 yuan/ton, and the overall market was running smoothly.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic aggregate MDI market is running steadily. North China and East China Wanhua negotiated 12800-13000 yuan/ton, Shanghai negotiated 12500 yuan/ton, South China Wanhua negotiated 12800 yuan/ton, and Shanghai negotiated 12500-12600 yuan/ton. Downstream delisting early, market inquiries weakened, and on-site offers were scarce.

On the market side, the aggregate MDI market in North China is running steadily. The downstream market is leaving the market one after another. The atmosphere of market inquiry has weakened obviously, and the intention of middlemen is not high. East China Polymerization MDI market is running steadily. Spot market is still tight, but the Spring Festival is approaching, the downstream is leaving, market inquiries are weak, middlemen are mainly stable price delivery, but the actual single-track is insufficient. South China Polymerization MDI market consolidation operation. The market atmosphere is strong, the downstream leaves the market ahead of schedule, and market inquiries are weak.

Industry chain: In terms of raw materials, East China aniline Market is weaker. Although Nanhua and Xinpu have limited market volume, the North has lowered the ex-factory offer, while East China has fallen positively and the focus of negotiations has fallen.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the factory has a limited capacity, the market is very tight spot, and the overhaul and recovery device has a low load. On the bearish side, terminal demand is weak, and the enthusiasm of downstream and middlemen to hoard goods is weakened after price increases. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts expect that in the short term aggregate MDI market rise and fall dilemma, mainly stalemate.

First, crude oil rebounded in the beginning of the year

In January 2019, crude oil prices rebounded, thanks to Saudi Arabia’s reduction in crude oil exports to the United States and China. In addition, Saudi Arabia reiterated its efforts to balance the crude oil market. If necessary, further production cuts would effectively boost oil prices, OPEC production cuts would gradually play a role in significantly reducing crude oil production, significant reduction in active drilling in the United States, and continued rebound in the stock market would help to rebound risk sentiment. Rising, multiple factors to boost oil prices. Brent charged $61.32 a barrel and WTI $52.31 a barrel on the 16th.

Global crude oil demand growth will slow down in 2019, mainly due to the continued fermentation of major global economic events in 2018. For example, the Sino-US trade war, the progress of Britain’s “de-Europe” and the sanctions imposed by the United States against Russia and Iraq will all be cumbersome to the economic development of the United States. In addition, the economic development situation of the United States itself deserves attention. The global crude oil supply will continue to increase in 2019, and the United States will truly become the world’s largest oil producer, which will surely make the Middle East countries and Russia feel a sense of urgency. OPEC + countries are committed to reducing production to boost crude oil prices, and the shrinking market share is likely to become a new market for the United States to increase crude oil production. The U.S. energy policy advocating inventory reduction will continue. Increasing crude oil production and increasing exports are the basic strategies for 2019. This part of the resources released outside the U.S. will occupy the market share of OPEC + countries and increase the pressure of crude oil stocks outside the U.S.

2. Collective decline of US stocks/rebound of RMB

Recent fears of a global slowdown continued to weigh on U.S. stocks for the first trading day of the week, with three major indices closing down for two consecutive days. As the economy slows down and oil prices remain low, it is expected that corporate earnings growth will become more difficult later. With the collective decline of U.S. stocks, the U.S. dollar and crude oil markets also fell slightly. As investors’demand for risky assets weakened, market instability also intensified.

Last Monday (January 14), the RMB rose 349 basis points to 6.7560 against the US dollar, the highest since July 19, 2018. Influenced by news, the onshore RMB early trading rose more than 200 points, approaching 6.74, and then narrowed down. The offshore renminbi has risen 1.1% against the dollar since last week, after surging more than 1,000 points a week. China’s measures to promote economic growth will help the renminbi appreciate. Especially under the background of trade slowdown, the average value of RMB exchange rate returns, but due to the short-term rise of RMB, some passengers hesitate slightly, the market’s cautious mood revives, and the subsequent rise is expected to slow down.

Third, China’s domestic economic growth has slowed down

On January 12, Ning Jitao, deputy director of the National Development and Reform Commission, said at the 23rd China Capital Market Forum that the expected GDP growth of about 6.5% in 2018 could be achieved. At the same time, the expected goal of basically synchronizing the growth of residents’income and economic growth in 2018 can be achieved. The growth of per capita residents’ income has outperformed the growth of per capita GDP and achieved the basic synchronization. However, compared with the GDP in 2017, the growth rate slowed down year-on-year, indicating that the follow-up economic pressure still exists.

Generally speaking, crude oil and Renminbi have both stopped falling and rebounded, US stocks have fallen, and GDP has been growing steadily throughout the year. Many economic indicators indicate that the beginning of 2019 will be stable. Polyethylene market has been in a stable stage since New Year’s Day. Petrochemical has actively cleared stocks before the festival and is relatively ideal. As of the 18th day, two barrels of oil stocks have remained at a low level of about 500,000 tons. In addition, stocks in the lower reaches of the year before the festival have not At the end, the spot market is limited, traders and downstream inventories are low, so the overall polyethylene market is expected to continue to stabilize. Macroeconomics continues to maintain a “L” type of steady development, so the market need not be too pessimistic. The overall trend of 2019 is expected to be moderate and progressive, but there are still many difficulties and challenges in the economic operation. With the combination of multiple factors, the market still needs to respond at random.

On January 21, the Asian phenol market closed at a stable price of $944-946 per ton CIF.

On January 21, the closing price of methanol in Europe and the United States fell, with FOB closed in the Gulf of the United States; FOB of methanol in Europe, Rotterdam, 270.5-271.5 euros/ton, fell 3.5 euros/ton

According to data released by Korea Customs, coal imports from January to December 2018 reached 148.726 million tons, an increase of 464,000 tons, an increase of 0.3%, of which 11.748 million tons were imported in December, a decrease of 4.9%.

Since graphene won the Nobel Prize in Physics in 2010, scientists and industry have been chasing graphene enthusiastically. In the pursuit of graphene, a large number of graphene-like two-dimensional materials have also been found, how to define them accurately is related to the development of related materials industry. Reporters learned from Taizhou Juana New Energy Co., Ltd. on the 17th that the first national standard of graphene GB/T 30544.13-2018, drafted by the company, was officially released: Part 13 of nanotechnology terminology: graphene and related two-dimensional materials. This standard is also the first national standard in the field of two-dimensional materials. The family of graphene-like two-dimensional materials involves a wide range of disciplines and a wide range of types. It has been showing a trend of multi-point blossom, new phenomena and new applications.

Two-dimensional materials are one of the most advanced research and application fields. They cover printing electronics, flexible electronics, supercapacitors, solar cells, quantum dots, sensors, semiconductor manufacturing and so on. They have excellent mechanical, thermal and optical properties, and are the basis of subversive innovation in many fields. According to the definition of national standard, it consists of one or several layers, in which the atoms in each layer are closely bonded with the neighboring atoms in the layer. One dimension (i.e. its thickness) is in the nanometer or smaller scale. The other two dimensions are usually in the larger scale of materials, called two-dimensional materials. What are the excellent properties of two-dimensional materials? Because the surface atoms of single-layer two-dimensional materials are almost completely exposed, compared with bulk materials, the atomic utilization rate is greatly improved. The band structure and electrical properties can be easily controlled by thickness control and element doping. Therefore, two-dimensional materials are more conducive to chemical modification and electron transfer. At the same time, they have high flexibility and transparency, and have attractive prospects in wearable smart devices, flexible energy storage devices and other fields. The first national standard for graphene and two-dimensional materials in China was drafted by Taizhou Juana New Energy Co., Ltd. and Southeast University. The former was established in 2010 and is one of the earliest companies engaged in graphene research, testing, application and standardization in China.

On January 16, the PX commodity index was 68.80, up 4 points from yesterday, down 32.81% from the peak of 102.40 points in the cycle (2013-02-28), and up 51.04% from the low of 45.55 points on February 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. Pengzhou Petrochemical Plant has been running steadily in the field. Urumqi Petrochemical Plant has started 50% of its operation. Fuhaichuang Aromatic Hydrocarbon Plant has been restarted. Other plants have been running steadily for the time being. The domestic market supply of p-xylene has increased, and the market price trend of p-xylene has been temporarily stable. The opening rate of PX plant in Asia rose to about 80%. On January 16, the closing price of p-xylene in Asia dropped by 4 US dollars per ton. The closing price was US$1052-1054 per ton FOB in Korea and US$1071-1073 per ton CFR in China. More than 50% of domestic imports were needed. The decline of foreign prices had a negative impact on domestic market price of p-xylene. The domestic market price was 8600 yuan per ton.

On January 16, the price of WTI crude oil in February rose to 52.31 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.20 U.S. dollars. Brent crude oil in March rose to 61.32 U.S. dollars per barrel, an increase of 0.68 U.S. dollars. Crude oil closing price rose slightly, which supported the price of downstream petrochemical products, while the price of paraxylene market was stable. Recent textile industry volatility, PTA prices have maintained stability in the near future, the average price of East China bid in the vicinity of 6400-6600 yuan/ton, as of 16 days domestic PTA start-up rate is about 72%, polyester industry start-up rate is about 82%, plus the general market of hobby production and marketing, PTA market price high volatility, is expected to maintain the PX market price of 8600 yuan/ton in the later period.

Elo Copper announced its output data for the whole year and the fourth quarter of 2018 for Curaca, Bahia, a 99.6% stake in Brazil, and its corresponding financial results will be released after the closing of the Toronto Stock Exchange on Thursday, March 14, 2019.

Output highlights in 2018: 1. Total copper production in 2018 was 30,426 tons, and in 2017 it was 20,133 tons, up 51% year-on-year, exceeding the original output target of 2018 by 15%; 2. Copper production in the fourth quarter was 12,104 tons, up 55% year-on-year; 3. Total annual gold and silver production in NX gold mine with 97.6% of the company was 39,808 ounces and 24,573 ounces respectively.

Outlook highlights in 2019: 1. Copper production target in 2019 is 36,000 to 38,000 tons; 2. C1 cash cost target is $1.00 to $1.10 per pound of copper, in dollar terms: BRL foreign exchange rate is 3.70; 3. Capital expenditure target is $62 million; 4. Additional $20 million is used to fund the exploration plan in 2019. The plan focuses on 130,000 meters of planned exploration drilling, including 112,500 meters of near-mine exploration drilling (including continued exploration of the eastern Vermelhos and Western Pilar wings), and additional 17,500 meters of planned exploration drilling tests for green land.

Commodity Name: Acetone

Market Price (East China January 14): 3600 yuan/ton

Analysis points: Domestic acetone market intends to bid last week, but all aspects of support is limited, the market is in a stalemate. At present, although the port inventory has declined slightly and the mindset of on-site cargo holders has been boosted. In order to stimulate the downstream receipt of goods, the offer has been narrowly pushed up, but the mood of the downstream terminal factories entering the market is not high enough to support the high-level operation of the market, and the volume of the actual transaction is insufficient. Business associations predict that the main negotiation area of East China market is 3550-3600 yuan/ton, and that of South China market is 3700 yuan/ton.

1.Price Trend

According to the business community urea price monitoring, this week the domestic urea market quotation shocks weakly downward, the market purchases on demand. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market was 1915 yuan/ton. At the weekend, the mainstream ex-factory quotation in the domestic urea market fell to 1897 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.91%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week’s domestic urea market shocks fell sharply, but on Friday there were some price rises, part of the plant overhaul. At present, the mainstream in Shandong has rebounded from the bottom and started to rise slightly. Some manufacturers offer 1860-1920 yuan/ton, while those in Anhui offer 1940-1960 yuan/ton. The overall trading atmosphere in the market has been reduced. Recently, the domestic environment protection inspection atmosphere has eased, coal shortage after heating, many urea enterprises are limited by gas, high price gas and so on, which results in high cost pressure. Some enterprises are forced to limit or stop production, which also results in the decline of start-up and poor performance in demand. The overall industry start-up rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises remains low, and the price of raw material urea is unstable. In some enterprises, production reduction or overhaul remains unchanged, and the equipment load is still acceptable.

Market Demand: Agricultural market is mostly in a gap period. Winter storage market is affected by the psychology of “buying up, not buying down”. The wait-and-see mood is strong. There is no obvious start-up of light storage market. It still takes time for the improvement of agricultural demand market. The purchase of industrial compound fertilizer and rubber board industry has come to an end. It is difficult for the market to find a new advantage for the time being, and the market will adjust its trend at a high level in the near future.

Industry chain: Anthracite market supply in the upstream is still tight, coal prices are still rising in recent days, the supply of urea raw materials and natural gas is tight, the price of liquid ammonia market has slightly declined, and urea cost support is strong. Compound fertilizer started at a low level, and raw materials trading was limited.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the domestic urea market has insufficient stamina, weak demand, light market atmosphere, cautious downstream traders sign orders, many visitors, insufficient follow-up of new orders, and obvious bidding psychology of enterprises. In the long run, the international urea market continues to decline, pessimism in the industry increases, manufacturers have strong willingness to ship, more price reduction orders, and heating season, gas limitation and production reduction, raw material supply is tight. The urea market is expected to rebound from the bottom next week and rise slightly.

On January 9, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 119.10, which was the same as yesterday. It was 15.19% lower than the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and 122.24% higher than the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been lower recently. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 12775 yuan/ton as of the 10th day. The domestic starting rate of hydrofluoric acid is more than 50%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient, the situation of goods on the spot has been worse recently. Some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks and lowered the ex-factory price slightly, but due to the high support of raw material market. The price decline of hydrofluoric acid market is very limited. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 12 500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is between 12 500 and 13 000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent high prices of raw materials market, fluorite prices are in a high state, but the price of raw materials fluorite slightly declined, the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly lower.

Recent downstream refrigerant product maintenance devices are more, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate declines, the main production enterprise bulk water out-of-factory offer price drops to 17500-18500 yuan/ton, but the production enterprise does not have bulk water spot, mainly with a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment overhaul increased, the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist high prices of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be around 12,500 yuan/ton.

On January 8, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 119.10, down 1.14 points from yesterday, down 15.19% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 122.24% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has been lower recently. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 13125 yuan/ton as of the 9th day. The domestic start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid is more than 50%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot is sufficient, the situation of goods on the spot has been worse recently. Some enterprises have increased their hydrofluoric acid stocks and reduced their ex-factory prices slightly, but due to the high support of raw material market. The price decline of hydrofluoric acid market is very limited. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 1250-13000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is about 1250-13500 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is slightly lower, spot supply is sufficient, due to the recent high prices of raw materials market, fluorite prices are in a high state, but the price of raw materials fluorite slightly declined, the market price of hydrofluoric acid slightly lower.

Recent downstream refrigerant product maintenance devices are more, the demand for upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid has weakened, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market has declined, and the price of hydrofluoric acid products has slightly decreased. Recent market of refrigerant downstream terminal market is cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 70%, R22 refrigerant facility start-up rate declines, the main production enterprise’s bulk water ex-factory offer price is between 2000-21500 yuan/ton, but there is no bulk water spot in the production enterprise, mainly a small amount of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has declined, and the shipment market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a is slightly lower, the start-up rate of production enterprises is lower, the market demand for refrigerants is weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much, and the merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the impact of equipment maintenance, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid has weakened.

Refrigerant on-site transaction prices slightly lower, refrigerant industry equipment overhaul increased, the upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand weakened, coupled with the upstream refrigerant industry to resist high prices of raw materials, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may continue to decline, hydrofluoric acid prices will be 12,500-13,000 yuan/ton.

At the close of January 8, methanol FOB in the US Gulf dropped 0.25 cents per gallon to 99.5-100 cents (US$331.3-333 per ton), while methanol FOB in Rotterdam, Europe, fell 277-278 (US$317.1-318.2 per ton) to 3.5 euros per ton.

By the end of January 8, methanol CFR in China (LC 0-30 days) was 266-268 US dollars per ton, up 3 US dollars per ton; methanol CFR in Southeast Asia (LC 0-30 days) was 298-300 US dollars per ton.

According to the report on TABNinfo website in Dubai on January 6, 2019, the global petrochemical industry will grow steadily in the next nine years.

A report released on the sidelines of an industry event in Dubai said that nearly 1,158 planned and announced petrochemical plants would be operating mainly in Asia and the Middle East over the next nine years.

The Global Exhibition of Petrochemical, Plastic and Rubber Industries will be held in Dubai International Convention and Exhibition Center on January 5, 2019.

The organizers said that the Arab International Plastic Rubber Development in 2019 was a platform for promoting new products, witnessing industry developments, opening up communication channels with industry counterparts and meeting with policy makers in the global plastic, rubber and petrochemical industries.

In the next nine years, Asia, the Middle East and North America will be the top regions contributing to global petrochemical production capacity. It is expected that the annual output of petrochemical products will increase from 1.555 billion tons in 2017 to 2.036 billion tons in 2026.

First, the price data:

This week, the domestic sulfur market rose first and then stabilized. At the beginning of the week, the domestic average price of domestic sulphur sulphur was 1407.78 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the average domestic price of sulphur sulphur was 1423.33 yuan/ton, and the overall increase was 1.1%. The current price rose year-on-year. 31.52%.

Second, the market analysis

Products: This week, the domestic sulfur market has risen slightly, the market is operating steadily, and local areas are fluctuating. Sinopec Puguang gas field has a daily output of 5,000 tons. The price is affected by the low spot of the port. Dazhou is stable at RMB 1,430/ton, and the inventory is around 59,000 tons. Many regions follow the stable price operation. The downstream demand in Shandong and North China is acceptable. The goods are smooth and the price is raised. 30-40 yuan.

Industry chain: This week, the domestic average price of bromine has risen to a new high for many years, and the start-up situation of enterprises has recovered. However, the supply side spot is still less, the long-term singles and planned shipments, the downstream market just needs to be stable, and the price of bromine is high. strong. At present, the mainstream manufacturers in the industry offer between 32,500-34,000 yuan / ton. This week, the domestic market for sulfuric acid continued to rise. At the beginning of the week, the average domestic price of sulfuric acid was 522 yuan/ton. The average domestic price of domestic sulfuric acid at the weekend was 542 yuan/ton, the overall increase was 3.75%, and the current price rose 50.27% year-on-year.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, in the 42nd week of 2018 (10.15-10.19), the commodity prices rose by 25 in the chemical sector, and the top 3 commodities were acrylic acid (4.61%) and sulfuric acid ( 3.83%), phthalic anhydride (East China) (3.49%). There were 24 kinds of commodities with a decrease in the chain, and 3 products with a drop of more than 5%, accounting for 4.2% of the monitored products in the sector; the top 3 products were acetone (-6.63%) and polysilicon (-5.56%). , styrene (-5.35%). This week’s average price increase was -0.18%.

Third, the market outlook

Sulphur analysts of the Chemical Industry Branch of the business community believe that the current business inventory is acceptable, and the market outlook is expected to stabilize.

First, the price trend

The domestic BDO market is down. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, as of October 11, the domestic BDO market average price was 11078 yuan / ton, and the price rose 2.99%.

Second, the market analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market is running weakly. On the factory side, the price of Meizhou Bay is lowered by 700 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton (small order), and the price of Henan Kaixiang is lowered by 500 yuan/ton to 11,300 yuan/ton. Poor, the focus of the transaction is mostly low. In terms of market prices, the mainstream offers in East China and North China are 10800-11000 yuan/ton, the actual unit price is 10500-10800 yuan/ton, and the bargaining price is 11600-12000 yuan/ton. South China offers 10800-11000 yuan / ton, the actual unit price is 10500-10900 yuan / ton, the barrel price is 11700-12000 yuan / ton.

In terms of the market, the BDO market in North China has a flat buying intention, and most of the goods are just long-term. The factory’s offer was firm and released the market news, but the downstream was more resistant to high prices, the new single inquiry was not good, and the wait-and-see attitude was strong. The BDO market in East China was organized and operated, and the trading atmosphere in the market was not good. Due to the relaxation of environmental protection, the problem of downstream construction has been improved, and the demand has gradually increased. The fundamentals of the industry are expected to be acceptable. However, the basic news of the market is still calm, and trading is not warm. The BDO market in South China was stable and the market fundamentals were calm. The main factory’s offer was stable, and the traders’ offer did not change much. The market was mainly on the market, but the industry was expected to be on the market.

Industry chain: upstream raw materials, the price of calcium carbide market in Northeast China is stable. The downstream enterprises purchase the first-class product calcium carbide to send the price at 3710-3735 yuan / ton. The limited electricity and maintenance in Inner Mongolia affected the production and the arrival of the land was uneven. Overall analysis, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will remain stable in the later period.

Third, the market outlook

On the positive side, upstream calcium carbide has an upside expectation; downstream PBT orders are good. For the bearish side, it is just the need for trading; the downstream is under-employed and the production and sales are sluggish. BDO analysts of the business community expect that in the short-term, the industry will pay more attention to the subsequent changes in supply and demand, and the BDO market will be dominated by multiple intervals.

On September 21, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market fell. The average price of cobalt was RMB 48,9250.00/ton, down by RMB 1000/ton from the previous trading day, a decrease of 0.20% and a year-on-year increase of 13.30%.

On September 21, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 20th, the cobalt commodity index was 176.35, which was the same as yesterday. It was 26.19% lower than the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, which was 152.51% higher than the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 21, the domestic price of cobalt was down, the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai was stable, and the actual transaction price fell. On September 21, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 476,000-496,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt was stable. On September 21, the stock was 463 tons, and the warehouse receipt was reduced by 2.25 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and the cobalt market is in an oversupply state. In terms of demand, the cobalt market has a certain transaction, but the market is still based on on-demand procurement. In the international market, the price of cobalt in the LEM market in London fell. On September 20, the price of cobalt in the LEM market closed at US$60,000/ton, down by US$3,000/ton from the previous trading day. The cobalt stock in the LEM market was 715 tons, and the inventory increased by 4 tons. The increase in cobalt supply has increased, and the overall supply-demand relationship has not changed significantly. The low growth in supply and high growth has led to a weak rise in cobalt prices, and the risk of decline remains. However, due to the high price of the international cobalt mine in the early stage, and the Congolese government officially used cobalt mine as a strategic resource, the tariff is imminent, the import cost of cobalt mine is high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, a small amount of cobalt in the cobalt market, the price of cobalt increased less, and due to the lack of major changes in the supply and demand of cobalt, the overall supply of cobalt in the city is too high, the price of cobalt is difficult to maintain, the cost of cobalt ore is at a high level, and the price of domestic cobalt is still falling. It is expected that the price of cobalt in the market will be stable and stable, and the price of cobalt will remain stable.

First, the price trend:

According to data from business companies, the price of ortho-benzene fell this week. On September 14th, the price of o-xylene was 7437.50 yuan/ton, which was down by 400 yuan/ton compared with the price of o-xylene (OX) of 7,837.50 yuan/ton on September 10, a decrease of 5.10% and a year-on-year increase of 24.88%. The market for o-xylene began to fall sharply in September, but the price is still higher than the same period last year.

Second, the market analysis:

Product:

This week, the inventory of phthalene in the East China Port remained at a low level. As of September 14, the inventory of Huadong Port was about 30,000 tons. The price of phthalate external disk fell. On September 14, the market for the o-xylene market in Europe was quoted at US$1015.00/ton FOB Amsterdam, Rotterdam and Antwerp. The price was US$100/ton from the beginning of this week, and the price rose by US$10/ton. Rising, the cost of imported ortho-benzene increased, and the pressure on imported ortho-benzene prices increased, which was good for the domestic price increase of o-xylene. However, the market for phthalic anhydride and plasticizers downstream of o-benzene fell, the demand for ortho-benzene increased, and the growth of o-benzene was weak, and the risk of falling benzene increased.

Industry chain:

The mixed methanol price fluctuated this week, and the cost of o-xylene rose. On September 14th, the price of mixed xylene was 6960.91 yuan/ton, which was about 160 yuan/ton higher than the price of 6798.18 yuan/ton at the beginning of September (September 10), and the price rose by 2.39%. The price of mixed xylenes has risen, and the cost of o-xylene has increased, which has supported the rise in the market for ortho-benzene.

The phthalic anhydride market fell sharply in September. In September, phthalic anhydride fell by 2.25%. This week, the phthalic anhydride market remained stable. Phthalic anhydride is the main downstream product of o-benzene. The decline in the market of phthalic anhydride directly affects the demand of ortho-benzene. The transaction in the ortho-benzene market is bleak, resulting in a sharp drop in the price of o-benzene. This week, the phthalic anhydride market was stable, and with the decline in the price of phthalic acid, the phthalic anhydride market showed signs of maintaining a stable rebound, and the demand for phthalic acid in the market was gradually picking up.

The downstream DOP market fell, the parade of benzene was cold, and the demand for benzene was general. On September 14th, the price of DOP (East China) was 9375.00 yuan/ton, which was 0.18% lower than the price of 9391.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 5.63% from the same period of last year.

Third, the market outlook:

Baijiaxin, an analyst with o-xylene data in the business community, believes that the price of the adjacent xylene external disk has rebounded after a small decline last week. The price of imported ortho-benzene has remained high, and the stock of benzene in the port has been low. Good role. At the same time, the price of mixed benzene in domestic benzene raw materials rose, and the cost of benzene increased, which was good for the price increase of benzene. However, due to the poor market conditions of downstream phthalic anhydride and plasticizers, the demand for o-benzene is relatively small, the market for o-benzene is bleak, and the price of o-benzene is falling, which has a negative impact on the market for phthalene in the market. However, with the decline in the price of ortho-benzene, the phthalic anhydride market or the stimulus partially recovered, and the demand for ortho-benzene increased gradually. However, as the price of ortho-benzene in the current stage is still higher than in previous years, the market for phthalic anhydride and downstream plasticizers is unlikely to rise sharply in the short term. O-benzene will still decline slightly in the short term, but with the increase in demand for ortho-benzene, the price of ortho-benzene It is bound to rise again. It is expected that the price of phthalic acid in the market will rise after a small decline, and the price of ortho-benzene will rebound or rise at around 7,300 yuan/ton.

On September 11, the price of metallic cobalt in the domestic non-ferrous metal spot market rose. The average price of cobalt was 49,2750.00 yuan/ton, which was 0.66% higher than the previous trading day.

On September 11, the price of metal cobalt in major domestic manufacturers was temporarily stabilized. The average price of cobalt ex-factory was 52,5000.00 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with the previous trading day.

On September 10, the cobalt commodity index was 178.08, up 0.72 points from yesterday, down 26.30% from the highest point of 238.91 points (2018-04-15) in the cycle, up 152.12 from the lowest point of 69.84 on July 5, 2016. %. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 11, the domestic price of cobalt rose, and the price of cobalt powder in Shanghai remained stable, and the actual transaction price increased slightly. On September 11, the domestic cobalt price of Wuxi Stainless Steel Electronic Trading Center was 472,000-496,000 yuan/ton, and the price of cobalt was stable. On September 11, the stock was 632 tons, and the inventory was reduced by 3 tons. The supply of cobalt is at a high level, and the downstream enterprises are purchasing on demand, but the market is still mainly on the sidelines. The cobalt price in the international market has risen slightly, causing the domestic market to follow suit and the short-term domestic cobalt price may rise slightly. On the demand side, the growth rate of new energy vehicles has declined, but the performance is still better than market expectations. The performance of new energy vehicles is positive for the stability of cobalt prices, but it is difficult to change the downward trend of cobalt prices. However, due to the absolute high cobalt price in the previous period, the import cost of cobalt ore is relatively high, and the space for cobalt price decline is limited.

In terms of market outlook, the increase in international cobalt prices has led to a rise in domestic cobalt prices. However, due to the absence of major changes in the supply and demand of cobalt, the overall supply of cobalt is oversupplied, cobalt prices are difficult to maintain, and domestic cobalt prices are still at risk of decline. It is expected that the price of cobalt will fluctuate and stabilize. In the short term, the price of cobalt rebounded slightly.

First, the price trend

According to the urea price monitoring of the business community, the domestic urea market price continued to rise this week, and the market purchased on demand. At the beginning of the week, the domestic factory price of the domestic urea market was 1,956 yuan/ton. On the weekend, the mainstream domestic price of the domestic urea market rose to 1972 yuan/ton, and the weekly increase was 0.79%.

Second, the market analysis

Products: The domestic urea market continued to rise this week, and the equipment was partially overhauled. At present, the mainstream of Shandong continues to rise, and some manufacturers’ prices have risen to 1980-2000 yuan/ton. The overall market turnover is still positive. The domestic environmental inspection atmosphere has not diminished in the near future, and the environmental protection inspection in Shandong has caused the construction to decline, and the demand has declined. Although the start of fertilizer production in autumn was early, the overall industry operating rate of domestic compound fertilizer enterprises rebounded slightly but was slow, and the price of raw urea began to rise, but the price of environmental inspection began to fall. Some enterprises still have reduced production or maintenance, and the load on the equipment is acceptable.

Industry chain: The supply of upstream anthracite market is still tight. Recently, coal prices have risen again. The tight supply of urea raw materials has shown a significant improvement, and urea cost support is still strong. The compound fertilizer started to work low, the raw material transaction slowed down, the grassroots demand in agriculture decreased, and the price in some areas has increased.

Third, the market outlook

Urea prices in foreign countries have continued to rise, and China’s urea exports will increase greatly. In September, the supply of urea will increase slightly. If the environmental protection and relaxation rate will increase, it will still be weak.

First, the price trend

Recently, the market for butadiene has fallen. Business community monitoring showed that as of September 6, the price of butadiene was 13,060 yuan / ton, the day fell 2.17%, the price rose 19.81%.

Second, the analysis of influencing factors

Products: Domestic butadiene market quotation has further declined. Some players are concerned about the increase in the sales volume of Fushun Petrochemical and the cautious wait and see. Traders refer to the manufacturer’s price offer, and the downstream maintenance just needs inquiry. The market enquiry atmosphere in Shandong is still acceptable. The downward adjustment of Fushun Petrochemical’s supply price has increased the wait-and-see attitude of the industry. Some merchants have paid attention to the slight increase in market supply and lowered the offer. Trading in the butadiene market in East China remained stable. I heard that there were cargoes arriving in Hong Kong recently. However, traders were reluctant to ship at lower prices, and downstream buyers were just waiting for the inquiry. Asian butadiene closing price, FOB Korea average price offer 1689 US dollars / ton; CFR China average price offer 1718.5 US dollars / ton.

Industry chain: downstream, styrene-butadiene rubber: domestic styrene-butadiene rubber market fell. The market enquiry atmosphere was light, the merchants were not well shipped and the offer was slightly down. Some of the sources talked about the price and the price was small, and the transaction volume was small. Butadiene rubber, the domestic butadiene rubber market fell. Butadiene continues to fall, and buyers are buying at a lower price. Some merchants are shipping down, and the price range is down, and the volume is not much. SBS: Some brands of oil rubber and dry rubber roads in the domestic SBS market have been pushed up, and the small orders in the market are mainly sold.

Third, the market outlook

On the positive side, the supply of goods in the market is in short supply, and the operating load of some private enterprises is low. On the negative side, downstream buyers have limited ability to accept high prices, and the external market is weak. Fushun Petrochemical’s export of butadiene is expected to increase, and some manufacturers’ prices are lowered. The butadiene analysts of the business community expect that the butadiene market will be dominated in the short term, focusing on the changes in market supply.