I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.19% from 1796.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.11% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 83.72 on October 12.

II. Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1800 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this week is 1850 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

Market demand: in terms of agricultural demand, agricultural cultivation is in progress in Shandong Province, and agricultural demand is gradually rising, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the National Day has passed, environmental protection policies and transportation difficulties have weakened, and downstream construction has increased, and downstream demand for urea has also started to rise. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong will fluctuate in the short term.

Industry chain: the price of upstream products rose and fell: the price of natural gas rose significantly, with a 15.16% increase from 2793.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3216.67 at the end of the week, down 23.87% year-on-year; the price of liquid ammonia fell this week, with a 3.65% decrease from 3286.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 11.55% year-on-year. Urea cost is generally supported. This week, the downstream melamine quotation is temporarily stable, and the purchasing capacity is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

III. future forecast

In the middle of October, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate. After the adjustment in September, the capital return of each factory was in good condition, the operating rate picked up, and the production capacity rose. Business urea analysts believe that after the national day, environmental protection policies and safety inspection and other factors weakened, downstream construction increased, downstream purchase intention increased, coupled with the current farming is in progress, agricultural demand also increased. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fluctuate in the middle of October.