I. price trend

The domestic aggregate MDI market fluctuated and fell. According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of the aggregate MDI market at the beginning of this week was 13075 yuan / ton, and the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market at the weekend was 12700 yuan / ton, down 2.87% in the week. The price was stable compared with the same period last month, and the price was down 9.29% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the domestic aggregate MDI market fell in shock. At the beginning of the week, the guiding price of main factories fell, which depressed the market mentality, and the market trading was depressed. The industry was lack of confidence in the future. The decline of offer made profits for shipment, and the low price offer was frequent. On Monday (10.14), Ningbo Wanhua announced the maintenance plan, which greatly boosted the market mentality. The next day, the market trading and buying picked up, and the volume of transactions was significant. Those who have offered to push up one after another, but the price rise has depressed market buying, the overall atmosphere continues to fall, the rise has not been continued.

In terms of market, as of Friday (10.18), the MDI market of North China polymerization was in shock and consolidation, with weak on-site inquiry and purchase, poor transaction follow-up, slightly tight holding of goods, and firm offer. At present, Shanghai’s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and pm200′s quotation for barreled delivery with bills is 12900-13000 yuan / ton. The MDI market of East China polymerization is in a stalemate. The overall atmosphere in the market is weak and the transaction is not smooth. The offer of the company is firm and the price is low. At present, the quotation of Shanghai drum delivery with bills is 11900-12000 yuan / ton, and that of pm200 drum delivery with bills is 13000-13100 yuan / ton. South China aggregate MDI market range consolidation, the overall atmosphere of the market is weak, the transaction is not smooth, the industry reported stable waiting for the market, sporadic low prices have been heard. At present, the quotation of Shanghai barreled delivery with bills is about 12000 yuan / ton, and the quotation of pm200 barreled delivery with bills is about 13000 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: raw materials, pure benzene: domestic pure benzene market rose. The price of external market is mainly rising, and CFR China’s price rise drives the domestic market. Crude oil prices rose at the end of the day, the East China market opened higher, the market price continued to rise, and the downstream styrene also showed a rising trend. However, downstream demand remains weak, and the market is generally positive. The downstream recovery speed is less than expected, and the buying enthusiasm is not good. It is estimated that the short-term pure benzene market will be consolidated within the range.

Aniline: in the week, the domestic aniline Market negotiation is stable, the supply of Shandong market is limited, the large factories in East China market mainly sell the cargo, the domestic manufacturers have no pressure on the inventory, it is expected that the aniline negotiation will be stable in the near future. Shandong and North China’s mainstream reference price to 7760 yuan / ton acceptance; East China’s market mainstream price reference 8000 yuan / ton acceptance factory. (Note: the rise and fall of factories and markets in North China are calculated according to the rise and fall of cash)

III. future forecast

From the perspective of the business community: the supplier’s slow delivery speed, the spot tension in the field will continue, the quantity of goods held by the business community is not large, and the business community holds the attitude of low price and reluctant to sell. The northern heat preservation project is coming to an end, and there is still a stock of raw materials in the downstream, which will be supplemented to some extent this week, while the price of foaming agent is in short supply, so the demand is hard to say good. According to the MDI analyst of the business community, the domestic aggregate MDI market will be biased next week. Strong consolidation, little fluctuation space, focus on factory policy and market trading.