1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 18 was 5830 yuan / ton, 0.82% higher than the previous day, and 17.3% lower than the same period last year. On May 18, the PVC commodity index was 73.88, up 0.61 points from yesterday, down 26.12% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 26.79% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: PVC futures rose on the 18th, driving the spot market to continue to soar, but the trend has slowed down compared with the previous gains. Late last week, PVC futures fell, some enterprises in the spot market cautiously recalled, in addition to the high price of PVC in the early stage, and limited terminal receiving capacity, so the momentum of PVC market continued to rise sharply was insufficient, and most enterprises kept a stable wait-and-see, digesting the early gains. At present, the domestic terminal demand recovers and the real estate industry ushers in the peak season. The operation rate of PVC pipe enterprises has been significantly improved and the demand has increased. Other downstream markets are still in the process of slowly improving, especially the export market is recovering slowly with few orders. As a whole, the demand side focuses on the domestic market. The domestic PVC inventory has decreased, the supply of goods in South China is tight, there is a phenomenon of looting, the inventory in other regions is still high, the terminal multi-dimensional system just needs, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. At present, it is still in the period of maintenance of production enterprises, and the sales pressure of manufacturers is not great. In addition, the recent increase of calcium carbide at the raw material end, PVC enterprises’ strong price sentiment is high, and the market is getting better. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5500-5950 yuan / ton.

Futures: on 18th, pvcv2009 contract concussed higher, closing at 5885 yuan / ton, which was + 100 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume was 163501, – 18710; positions were 218482, + 3934, basis – 5 yuan, + 65 yuan; 9-1 price difference was 50 yuan, + 0 yuan.

Industry chain: European and American stock markets fell recently, and there are still many challenges in the oil market in the later period, and the support for ethylene is not clear, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range consolidation in the future. Last week, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2500 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2350 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide this week was 2330 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend It is 2450 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise slightly in late May.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity price in rubber and plastic plate, the top three commodities are PC (4.88%), PVC (1.36%) and PA6 (1.19%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were PP (fiber) (- 4.29%), PP (drawing) (- 3.67%) and HDPE (- 2.76%). This week’s average was – 0.45%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the macro-economy has recovered, the terminal demand has gradually recovered, PVC futures trading is active, and many positive factors such as the increase of raw material end have boosted, and PVC market trend is expected to be strong in the short term.