1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.21% from 1620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1623.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.22% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 75.04 on May 15.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the agricultural demand is low, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is weak; the industrial demand is general, and the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is cautious, and most of them are used as they are purchased. Supply side: at present, due to the small amount of goods delivered from other provinces in Shandong Province, the new orders of enterprises in Shandong Province have improved, and the willingness of enterprises to hold up prices has increased. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

International aspect: on May 8, Indian bidding results announced that 14 enterprises participated in the bidding, with a total bidding volume of 2.393 million tons, and the east coast price of 231.90 USD / ton CFR. The price converted to the port is about 1530 yuan / ton, so the possibility of domestic supply is low.

Industry chain: the upstream urea products in this week seem to have declined as a whole: the price of natural gas has declined, with the quotation dropping from 2863.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.96%, down 22.39% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia in this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 3116.67 yuan / ton, down 9.75% compared with the same period of last year. In general, the urea cost support in this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up slightly. Urea analysts of business association believe that at present, agricultural demand is weak, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.