Spot aluminum prices continued to fall on the 26th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on October 26 was 20866.67 yuan / ton, down 3.69% from the average market price of 21666.67 yuan / ton on October 25.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 32.68%.

Social inventories have risen

As of October 21, the total domestic social inventory was 954400 tons, an increase of 70400 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong was 277400 tons, an increase of 12400 tons on a weekly basis; The social inventory of aluminum ingots in East China was 505000 tons, with a weekly increase of 46000 tons (including 96000 tons in Shanghai, 319300 tons in Wuxi, 4700 tons in Changzhou and 85000 tons in Hangzhou); Gongyi’s inventory was 84000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons on a weekly basis; Tianjin’s inventory was 70000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis; Chongqing’s inventory was 3000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis; Linyi’s inventory was 15000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis.

High energy power consumption and aluminum production still need to be paid attention to

According to the data of China Southern Power Grid, the economy of the five southern provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan) continued to recover from January to September. Superimposed on the low base effect and the impact of high temperature weather in the same period last year, the power consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces reached 1100.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% and an average increase of 9.2% in two years.

In the third quarter, the power consumption of high energy consumption capacity was continuously reduced. Although the coal was regulated by the policy, the current coal supply situation was still severe. In addition, the upcoming dry season also increased uncertainty for the later hydropower guarantee. In addition to Guizhou, the power supply of aluminum producing provinces Yunnan and Guangxi still needs to be paid special attention

Future forecast

The recent sharp decline in coal prices has brought a strong impact on the metal aluminum market in the power major industry. The speculative positions in the futures market have been settled, driving the linkage of spot prices. On the whole, the spot fundamentals have not changed much, but the aluminum price is indeed high, the downstream undertaking is weak, the fear of heights is strong, and the aluminum price has a certain downward momentum. The price of raw alumina is high, the cost of electricity is pushed up, the cost side is rising, and the expectation of capacity ceiling and production and power restriction is still in progress. It is expected that the space for reduction will narrow in the near future.