This week (October 18-22), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stagnated, and the price fell slightly near the weekend. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline in Shandong was 0.47%, and the price fell below 5000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still at a relatively high level in history. The main reason is that the upstream coal is suppressed by regulation, the price is down, and the cost advantage is weakened. With the increase of shipments of ammonia enterprises, the supply surge led to the rise of inventory, the inventory of ammonia enterprises was discharged, and the price began to loosen.

In terms of cost, at the beginning of the week, there was bad news in the market, the state issued policies to intervene in the coal market, and the futures of power coal and coking coal fell by the limit for several days. Although the spot market is strong, the price is also loose. The policy requires the release of some coal production capacity, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of thermal coal was 0.42%.

On the supply side, this week, the market supply gradually increased and the enterprise shipment increased. Taking a large factory in Shandong as an example, the daily shipment was only 600 tons last week and gradually rose to 900 tons this week. At present, there are few maintenance enterprises, among which the operating rate of devices in Shandong, Hebei, Lianghu and other regions is high. Previously, many devices were facing resumption of work and production. The increase of market supply is the fundamental reason for the decline of prices.

On the demand side, by late October, the downstream demand increment gradually slowed down. Previously, the downstream enterprises had strong stock preparation strength and sustained high support prices. At present, the downstream procurement slowed down and the price of liquid ammonia also loosened. In terms of urea, the price is still very strong, and it is still rising this week, with an increase of 1.30%. However, it is also obvious that the rise is very weak, and it is less likely that the future market will continue to rise.

Future forecast: in the short term, the upstream coal price will still be suppressed, and the cost of liquid ammonia will still face bad. In addition, the pressure on the supply side is difficult to ease in the short term. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the liquid ammonia Market in the near future.