1、 Price trend

 

Azodicarbonamide (AC foaming Agent)

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, pure benzene rose in shock this month. On September 1, the price was 7600-7700 yuan/ton (the average price was 7617 yuan/ton); On September 28, the price was 7850-8100 yuan/ton (the average price was 7901 yuan/ton), up 3.72% this month and 1.55% over the same period last year.

 

2、 Analysis and review

 

In terms of cost, crude oil fell broadly this month, and cost support weakened again. On the demand side, the prices of most downstream products of pure benzene rose this month, and the profitability improved. Downstream shutdown devices were restarted successively in the early stage, and the demand for pure benzene was repaired. The improvement of the demand side drove the pure benzene higher. In terms of ports, the inventory of pure benzene in East China ports rose to 64600 tons at the beginning of the month, but due to the impact of typhoon weather, the import cargo ships were delayed, and the inventory at the end of the month again fell to a low level.

 

This month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene increased by 250 yuan/ton to 7850 yuan/ton (300 yuan/ton to 7900 yuan/ton in North China).

 

In terms of crude oil, in September, crude oil continued to play a long short game, with strong negative market conditions and wide price shocks. The increase in interest rates in Europe and the United States has raised the market’s concern about economic recession and the pressure on crude oil demand, putting pressure on oil prices; However, European winter energy supply risks remain, supporting oil prices. As of September 28, Brent fell by 7.17 dollars/barrel, or 7.43%; WTI fell 7.4 dollars/barrel, or 8.26%.

 

In terms of the external market, the Asian pure benzene in the external market fell in shock this month. On September 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was 872 dollars/ton, down 26 dollars/ton month on month, or 2.9%; East China imported pure benzene at US $910 per ton, down US $2 per ton month on month, or 0.22%.

 

Downstream, styrene: styrene rose broadly this month and then fell back. At the beginning of the month, the production price in Shandong was 8967 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 9417 yuan/ton, with an increase of 5.02% this month and 2.8% compared with the same period last year.

 

Aniline: The demand has warmed up, the supply has tightened, the aniline fundamentals have strengthened, and the price has risen continuously this month. The price at the beginning of the month is 10350 yuan/ton; The price at the end of the month was 12300 yuan/ton. The average price of aniline in this month was 18.84% higher than that at the beginning of the month and 10.15% higher than that at the same period last year.

 

povidone Iodine

3、 Future market forecast

 

On the cost side (crude oil), the expectation of supply tightening continues to play a game with economic and demand worries, and the oil price will continue to be under pressure in the future. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

 

As the Asian American arbitrage window is closed, the diversion of Asian pure benzene to China is increasing. It is estimated that there will still be a large number of imported cargoes in October, and the inventory of ports in East China may continue to accumulate. In terms of supply, the units of Ningbo Daxie Petrochemical and HSBC Petrochemical are restarted. In the fourth quarter, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Guangdong Petrochemical units of CPC Central Committee will be put into production. The downstream of pure benzene follows up cautiously, and it is possible that pure benzene will weaken in the later period. Continue to pay attention to the impact of international crude oil market, external market, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

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