1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, the price of Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market rose this month. The average price of yellow phosphorus at the beginning of the month was 32000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 36375 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month by 13.67%.

2、 Market analysis

The yellow phosphorus market price rose this month. At present, the market transaction is fair. The preparation of goods before the National Day has been basically completed. The market is mainly wait-and-see at present, and the actual transaction is more cautious. Most manufacturers suspend the external quotation, and more single discussion is preferred. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 36000-37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 36000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 36500 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphorus ore, the overall performance of the domestic phosphorus ore market was mainly stable. At the beginning of September, the overall market price of domestic medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore fell slightly, and the price of some mining enterprises decreased slightly by about 10-20 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the main reason for the weakening of the phosphate ore market was that the terminal demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market was average, which affected the mentality of the industry. The support for the phosphate ore demand side was loose, and the overall market atmosphere was weaker than that at the end of August. At present, as the National Day holiday is approaching, the logistics transportation is also stopped in succession. The information in the phosphate rock yard is generally quiet. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will continue to operate mainly in a stable way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes in the supply and demand side.

In terms of coke, the coke market experienced a round of increase and decrease in September 2022. As of the press release, the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi was 2500 yuan/ton, and the price at the beginning of the month was 2600 yuan/ton, with a monthly drop of 3.85%. To sum up, with the rising price of coking coal, the cost of coking enterprises keeps rising, and some coking enterprises begin to lose money. Recently, the profitability of steel mills has improved to a certain extent, and the overall market has fluctuated upward. At present, Coke Steel has a strong game mentality. In the future, it is expected that coke prices will remain stable and relatively strong, focusing on the downstream sales of finished products and the impact of coke market trends on coke prices.

In terms of demand, the market price of phosphoric acid rose in July. The average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the month was 8860 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 10140 yuan/ton. The price rose within the month, by 14.45%. Influenced by the upstream market, the price of phosphoric acid market rose as a whole this month. Near the end of the month, the rising trend of the phosphoric acid market fell back. It is expected that the market price of phosphoric acid will temporarily stabilize in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

Yellow phosphorus analysts from the Chemical Branch of Business Cooperative believe that yellow phosphorus prices have risen this month. The price of upstream phosphate rock was adjusted at a high level, and the downstream phosphoric acid market as a whole was dominated by growth. Recently, some regions in Yunnan have limited power supply, and Guizhou and Sichuan have been rumored to have limited power supply, which is good for the yellow phosphorus market. The overall confidence of the yellow phosphorus market is fair, and it is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will consolidate and operate at a high level in the short term.