According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of light rare earths in February declined. On February 28th, the rare earth index was 375 points, a decrease of 23 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 62.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 38.38% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 362500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 10.49% in February; The price of neodymium metal was 475000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8.21% in February; The price of praseodymium oxide was 375000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7.98% in February; The price of praseodymium metal was 510000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 7.27% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 452500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 9.50% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 365000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 8.75%.

In February, the rare earth market prices fell, with limited transactions in the domestic rare earth market, very few new orders, low purchasing willingness of enterprises, and very few downstream inquiries. The rare earth raw material market continued to operate under pressure, with only a small number of price pressing inquiries. The supply-demand contradiction was sharp, and the overall market transactions were sluggish. There are many downstream holiday companies around the Spring Festival, and coupled with the holiday period for waste recycling, the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the rare earth market trend continues to decline.

According to statistics, in January 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 787000 and 729000 respectively, a decrease of 32.9% and 38.8% month on month, and an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in production and sales of new energy vehicles in January has had a certain negative impact on the rare earth market, and the domestic rare earth market has slightly declined.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments have released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, and the growth rate of the indicators has slowed down, which has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and some companies have not yet resumed work and production. The situation regarding new orders is unclear, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.