According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in February. On February 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6880 yuan/ton, and on February 29th, the benchmark price was 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.80%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; However, the continued increase in port inventories has brought resistance to the upward trend of toluene.
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The rise in international crude oil and external market prices provides support for toluene
Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices rose during and after the holiday in February, leading to stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of February 28th, the settlement of WTI04 contract is 78.54 yuan/barrel; The settlement price of Brent 05 contract is $82.15 per barrel. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in February. As of February 28, March, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 902-904 US dollars/ton.
Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production
The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remains at 8.4%. The external price of PX has slightly increased, and as of the 28th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1013-1015 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1038-1040 US dollars/ton CFR China.
Domestic mixed blending demand is weak in supporting toluene
During the off-season of the domestic mixed blending market before and after the Spring Festival, downstream inquiries were light, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. In the later stage, with the increase in local refining operations, the demand for oil blending in the market is expected to recover. As of February 22, the nationwide refinery operation fluctuated narrowly around 7.1 to 7.3.
After the holiday, TDI has basically increased its support for toluene demand
After the holiday, downstream factories have resumed work one after another, and the replenishment sentiment has increased. In addition, the TDI market has a low supply of goods, and suppliers have a clear intention to increase prices. Shanghai’s large factories have raised prices, and holders have raised their offers. However, downstream demand is limited, and TDI may not have enough support for stable operation in the later stage of the rise.
The increase in supply has suppressed the upward trend of Jia Ben
Domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of February 22, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; As of February 23, the inventory of toluene in East China was 104000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 18000 tons, a significant increase from the end of January.
Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Downstream industries such as PX and TDI have some support for toluene, but toluene inventories continued to increase in February, and supply pressure remains; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a volatile consolidation in the future.
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