Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic market of cyclohexanone rose first and then fell. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the price of cyclohexanone was 7966 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 8333 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 4.60% in the month. Prices fell by 30.56% over the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: In July, the cyclohexanone market showed a trend of first rising and then falling. The raw material pure benzene market continues to rise, the cost side has a certain degree of support. The downstream caprolactam market prices are stable, moderate and upward, and Shenyuan, Hengyi and other factories purchase normally. There is no spot export in Luxi for the time being, and the overall spot supply is tight. In the latter ten days, the pure benzene market fell slightly, the cost support was insufficient, and the pressure of high-price caprolactam shipment was on the high side. Some factories reduced the purchasing volume of cyclohexanone. In addition, the spot export of Luxi further aggravated the decline in the market price of cyclohexanone. The demand for solvent market was general in the month, and traders just needed to purchase, and market transactions were concluded. The atmosphere was flat.

Industry Chain: Raw Material: Pure Benzene: This month, the price of pure Benzene rebounded rapidly and fell back. Price is mainly affected by the trend of external market. As a result, the price of external market in the first 4-5 months was much higher than that in China, the import of pure benzene in June-July dropped sharply; some domestic reforming and disproportionation units were reduced due to cost reasons, and some large factories were converted to small-order supplementary contracts. Affected by the above reasons, domestic pure benzene supply was reduced, and port stock was reduced from 210,000 tons at the end of June to 155,000 tons at the end of July. Caprolactam: In July, the domestic caprolactam liquid market rose as a whole, slightly softening towards the end of the month. In July, the nylon industry chain as a whole was in a recovery situation. On the one hand, at the end of June, the G20 Summit of Chinese and American leaders released a positive signal. The US tariff of 325 billion US dollars was not levied on China for the time being, which boosted the market mentality and boosted the commodity market. On the other hand, at the end of June, the prices of caprolactam and PA6 slices fell to a new low, and the downstream purchase risk was not high. In addition, due to the market decline in the previous few months, the downstream purchase was concentrated at the end of June when the prices were low. The factory inventory eased and the peripheral good boosted, which led to the July market rise.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, 43 kinds of commodities rose annually in the chemical sector, of which 23 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 27.4% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were yellow phosphorus (47.32%), phosphoric acid (26.94%) and hydrochloric acid (23.33%). There are 33 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 11.9% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are trichloromethane (-16.39%), sulfur (-13.71%) and bromine (-9.66%). This month’s average rise and fall was 2.41%.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the spot supply of cyclohexanone plant fluctuates little, while the demand for downstream caprolactam may decrease, and the solvent market just needs to be purchased. Considering cost pressures, analysts of Cyclohexanone, a business firm, predict that the short-term market for Cyclohexanone will weaken by a limited margin. In the long run, new production capacity may be released in August, showing a pattern of supply exceeding demand.