Price Trend

The domestic butadiene market continued to be strong this week. Business Association monitoring showed that the domestic butadiene market price at the beginning of the week was 8890 yuan/ton, and the domestic butadiene price at the weekend was 9267 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price rose by 4.25%, which was 25.92% lower than the same period last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to strengthen upward, Sinopec East and South China prices continued to rise 400 yuan/ton to 9700 yuan/ton, Sinopec North China and Central China prices followed up to 9300 yuan/ton, and Northern export manufacturers quoted 9500-9800 yuan/ton. Within a week, the export of goods in Northeast China was limited, only 338 tons of goods in Huajin were exported. The shortage of spot supply continued to bring obvious support to the market. The short-term sustained increase boosted the enthusiasm of replenishing warehouses downstream. The supply price of manufacturers kept rising and the overall market was pushing upward. With the strong rise of butadiene, the downstream synthetic rubber market rose slightly, and business mentality improved, the overall market climate improved. Inventory of tank farm in East China is low, the position of middlemen is limited, and the mentality of reluctance to sell is obvious. The news that Sinopec’s supply price in East China continues to rise has boosted the market, and the market quotation is high.

Industry chain: downstream synthetic rubber, styrene-butadiene rubber, this week, the domestic dry rubber factory price slightly increased, styrene-butadiene rubber 1502 sheet price 10200-10400 yuan/ton, 100-250 yuan/ton higher than last period; styrene-butadiene oil rubber 1712 sheet price 9300-9450 yuan/ton, 100-150 yuan/ton higher than last period. The price of Qilu 1502E has risen by 350 yuan/ton compared with the previous period; Qilu 1712 has risen by 9600 yuan/ton; Qilu 1502E has risen by 300 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Cis-butadiene rubber, this cycle, domestic high-cis-butadiene rubber mainstream ex-factory prices rose to 10,420-10,600 yuan/ton range, an increase of 100 yuan/ton; market mainstream prices rose to 10,700-11,100 yuan/ton range, compared with last week’s mainstream prices rose by 100-200 yuan/ton. SBS: Domestic SBS market oil glue low finishing, dry rubber road to small finishing.

3. Future Market Forecast

On the positive side, domestic manufacturers’inventory is low, spot supply is tight, and the downstream market is rising slightly. On the negative side, the profit of synthetic rubber bears pressure, and some downstream manufacturers plan to reduce production. Spot resources in Northeast China are shrinking, and market supply continues to drive up the market. With the rapid increase of butadiene and the narrowing of the price gap between butadiene and downstream synthetic rubber, the profit pressure of downstream butadiene-styrene and cis-butadiene industries is obvious. Recently, a few manufacturers have heard that they plan to reduce the volume or drag the market of butadiene in the later period. However, the supply side of short-term butadiene market is strong, and the supply price of Sinopec continues to rise. Business Association butadiene analysts expect the domestic butadiene market to remain strong next week, and suggest that attention should be paid to manufacturers’prices and trading conditions.