Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the urea ex-factory price in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week, with an offer of 1840.00 yuan/ton, down 8.61% from the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was stable this week, with the urea commodity index of 85.58 on September 13.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the main urea factory price in Shandong Province is stable. Yangmei Plain urea quoted 1800 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 1820 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Mingshui chemical urea quoted 1900 yuan / ton this week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

Market demand: As for agricultural demand, farming in Shandong is about to begin, and agricultural demand will gradually rise, with some manufacturers operating at full capacity. In terms of industrial demand, the downstream is affected by previous environmental protection policies. There are too many shutdowns and the demand for urea has fallen considerably, thus affecting the price of urea. It is expected that the urea market in Shandong Province will fall mainly in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream products fell: natural gas prices fell from 3050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decline of 2.30%, 23.57% year-on-year; liquid ammonia prices stabilized temporarily this week, quoted at 3193.33 yuan/ton, down 10.80% year-on-year. The cost support of urea is weak and the purchasing capacity of downstream melamine is general, which has a negative impact on urea price. The downstream compound fertilizer is generally started, which has a negative effect on urea.

3. Future Market Forecast

In mid-September, the urea market in Shandong was mainly consolidated at a low level. After the adjustment in August, the capital reflux of each factory is in good condition, the start-up rate has risen, and the production capacity has risen. Business society urea analysts believe that with the advent of National Day, the downstream of urea in China is affected by environmental protection policies and safety checks, so there are too many shutdowns and purchasing willingness has greatly declined. In addition, the current agricultural demand has not yet arrived, the urea market has a strong game atmosphere, and the start-up cost has gradually increased, leading to urea market prices. It’s hard to maintain. Urea prices are expected to consolidate at a low level in mid-September.