Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of caprolactam in the domestic market continued to rise this month. On September 1st, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 1 2033 yuan/ton, and on September 20th, the average price of caprolactam liquids in China was 12 600 yuan/ton, up by 4.71%. On September 20, the caprolactam commodity index was 63.37, which was 36.63% lower than the 100.00 point in the cycle (2017-03-02), and 8.96% higher than the 58.16 point on May 16, 2017. (Note: Period refers to 2017-03-01 to date)

II. Market Analysis

Product: The price of caprolactam liquid market rebounded in mid-early September. The mainstream price of domestic liquid caprolactam market is 12020-13200 yuan per ton. As of September 20, the price of caprolactam liquid in Shandong Luxi Chemical Industry was 12300 yuan/ton. Cash was discharged from the factory. The first and second phases of caprolactam plant were running normally and the actual transaction was negotiable. The price of caprolactam liquid in Sanning, Hubei Province was 12800 yuan/ton, which was the main contract and 140,000 tons of caprolactam plant was running normally. The price of caprolactam liquid in Fujian Tianchen is 12700 yuan / ton, and the unit is in normal operation and delivered upon acceptance. Domestic caprolactam start-up rate is stable.

Industry chain: The price of cyclohexanone in upstream has risen sharply. On September 20, the reference value of cyclohexanone was 9000.00. Cyclohexanone market rose broadly, Saudi Arabia was attacked during the Mid-Autumn Festival, crude oil soared, pure benzene soared recently, the cost of cyclohexanone was strongly supported, the factory spot supply was normal, and the price was low. Downstream PA6 prices rose. On September 20, the reference price of PA6 was 14666.67. Traders’mainstream offer of 2.75-2.85 for Sino-Viscose is about 14666.67 yuan/ton. At present, the downstream demand of the traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is limited. In addition, the supply of PA6 in domestic factories tends to expand. Affected by this trend, the supply and demand of PA6 are closely watched by the industry, and the buyers and sellers are gradually cautious in their operation.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of business association caprolactam believe that the market price of caprolactam is rising due to the rising price of raw materials upstream and insufficient stock. Downstream aggregation factories are actively following the upsurge and stocking up on demand. The price of PA6 slices increased. It is expected that the future caprolactam market will be firm due to increased costs, but it is slightly difficult to continue to rise, so cautious operation is recommended.