I. price trend

In the fourth quarter of 2019, the phosphoric acid market recovered from a high level and fell in a step-by-step manner. According to the large data list of business association, the average price of phosphoric acid on October 1 was 5500 yuan / ton, and on December 13 was 5316.67 yuan / ton, with an overall decline of 3.33% in the fourth quarter. On December 13, the phosphoric acid commodity index was 116.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 9.89% from the highest point in the cycle of 128.96 (2019-07-25), and up 27.49% from the lowest point of 91.15 on October 13, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

II. Market analysis

Product: since October, the price of phosphoric acid market has been stable and downward, and the whole market is weak. The average price fell 3.03% in October, slightly fluctuated in the middle of November, and the price was temporarily stable. As of December 13, the average price fell slightly by 0.31%, with a quarterly decline of 3.33%. At present, the market performance of phosphoric acid in the fourth quarter is average, and the market is weak. Due to the rising cost of raw materials in the third quarter, the phosphoric acid industry as a whole rose, and the price has been in a high consolidation state. However, the price of phosphoric acid in this year is higher than that in previous years. In the fourth quarter, the start-up of phosphoric acid market is on the low side, the yellow phosphorus at the raw material end is tight, the price of phosphoric acid is supported by the cost side, and the attitude of the industry is not active. Under the pressure of environmental protection, the demand is less, and the downstream demand is not followed up enough, and the trading is And it is expected that there is no plan to store goods in the downstream, and the purchase is just needed, and there are few new orders for merchants. Compared with the general market of thermal phosphoric acid, wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good. Because the production process and process cost of wet process phosphoric acid are lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, the corresponding market quotation is lower than that of hot process phosphoric acid, which has a high market acceptance. In the near future, the goods are better, and most of the downstream products are willing to choose wet process phosphoric acid with low price at the end of the year. As of December 13, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5316.67 yuan / ton, Hubei Xingfa group quoted 5500 yuan / ton, Wengfu Dazhou quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Beijing Hangxing Hongda quoted 5300 yuan / ton, Guangxi Mingli group quoted 5550 yuan / ton, Sichuan KANGLONG chemical quoted 5100 yuan / ton, Sichuan Yida quoted 4700 yuan / ton. Prices across the region are generally weak, stable and consolidated, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the market is generally weak.

Industry chain: in winter, the production of the mine itself is limited, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the overall phosphorus ore market will still be weak and stable in the near future. Recently, the overall market of yellow phosphorus trading is light, and the price is slightly lower. The phosphate Market is under construction, and some enterprises mainly digest inventory. The phosphate market started to increase, while prices were temporarily stable and rising.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 49th week of 2019 (12.9-12.13), there are 24 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.7% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are glycol (17.59%), crude benzene (7.07%) and aniline (6.81%). There are 28 commodities with a decline of more than 5% on a month on month basis, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products with a decline are hydrochloric acid (- 6.41%), chloroform (- 4.55%), and bisphenol A (- 3.62%). This week’s average was 0.07%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and social chemical branch, phosphoric acid has been in a high consolidation state in the near future. The price is higher than that of previous years. Affected by environmental protection, the operating rate is low, the downstream demand is reduced, the on-site trading is flat, and the wet process phosphoric acid is relatively good for shipment, but the overall market is still weak. It is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will be weak and stable in the short term, with some downside risks.