I. price trend
According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 by carbide method), the average domestic PVC mainstream price on December 12 was 7052.5 yuan / ton, down 0.49% compared with the average domestic PVC mainstream price of 7087.5 yuan / ton on Thursday (05), up 7.26% compared with the same period last year. On December 12, the PVC commodity index was 89.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 10.63% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 53.37% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
II. Market analysis
Products: since November, PVC has been pushing up for several weeks. Recently, it has become stable and weak, and the heat has gradually subsided. Recently, the overall starting load of PVC enterprises has increased. After the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods has increased slightly, but the overall situation is still tight. The actual trading atmosphere is not warm, and the market transaction price is mostly concentrated in the middle and low end. Due to the rigid demand of the downstream procurement multi-dimensional system and the cautious wait-and-see attitude, the quotation of the merchants is mostly adjusted according to their own conditions, which is a little loose, resulting in a narrow range of PVC price consolidation and a small drop in price. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 12, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6700-7130 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is 7100-7200 yuan / ton, that of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is 7100-7220 yuan / ton, and that of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is 7320-7420 yuan / ton. Prices across the region were high and consolidated, with some prices down slightly.
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Recently, due to the impact of environmental protection in the northern heating season, Hebei started a class II response to heavy pollution weather, and some downstream product enterprises also had the news of production reduction, increased production suspension, and limited demand for PVC. In addition, the previous weeks pushed up, and the price of PVC has been pushed to a high level in the off-season. At present, the main reason is to digest the previous increase. In the absence of obvious favorable fundamentals, the upward trend of PVC lacks practical support The weak trend is expected.
Futures: Recently, PVC market fell. Now the main contract has been converted from 01 to 05. The price difference between 01 contract and spot contract is large, and part of the forecast will be repaired. On the 11th, the main contract fell in the night of 2005, closing at 6570 yuan / ton (- 25), and the position increased by 2838 to 379000. Futures closed at 6550 on the night of December 12, down 5, opening high and going low.
News: in November 2019, the domestic PVC output was 1641700 tons, an increase of 0.29% month on month and 1.03% year on year.
Industry chain: crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate broadly in the near future, and ethylene market will fall. In terms of calcium carbide, the operation of calcium carbide in Northwest China is normal, the price consolidation is stable, and the price of upstream raw materials is low. Compared with last year, the price has dropped a lot, and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. In the future, the price of calcium carbide may be low. The enthusiasm of PVC downstream products enterprises is not high, affected by environmental protection, the production is increasing, and the demand for PVC is limited.
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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, on December 12, 2019, there were two kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, including pet (1.16%) and PA66 (0.06%). There are two kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, PC (- 1.78%) and PP (- 1.21%), respectively. The average price of this day was – 0.11%.
III. future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club believe that: Recently, PVC futures have fallen sharply, and the spot market is also fluctuating and falling. At present, the inventory is still at a low level, and the prices of most manufacturers are still firm. It is difficult to completely change the tight supply of goods in a short time. It is expected that in the short term, the high consolidation of PVC will be the main thing, and the prices of some enterprises will be fine tuned. However, with the completion of enterprise maintenance, the supply of spot goods will increase, and downstream demand will increase Limited and other factors, the aftermarket may be under pressure.
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