1、 Price trend

Propane market was stable and down this week. On February 3, the average price of propane market was 3775 yuan / ton, and on February 7, the average price was 3725 yuan / ton, with a drop of 1.32% in the week, 8.87% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: the overall domestic propane market is down this week, and the market transaction atmosphere is average. As of February 7, Shandong Dongming Petrochemical Co., Ltd. stopped using propane for its own use, and Shandong Haiyou Petrochemical Group Co., Ltd. had no propane in stock, so it was not quoted temporarily. The ex factory price of propane of Tianjin Bohai Chemical Group supply and marketing company is 3750 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dongying Hualian Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3650 yuan / ton, that of Shandong HSBC Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3800 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd. is 3850 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Binzhou Dayou group is 3800 yuan / ton, and that of Sinopec Qingdao refining Co., Ltd The factory price of propane is 3600 yuan / ton.

Propane showed a downward trend this week, with a general trading atmosphere in the market. This week’s overall decline in international crude oil, coupled with a sharp fall in CP prices in February, was negative for the propane Market. Affected by the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is low, coupled with limited traffic, and the market atmosphere is general. During the holiday period, the inventory of manufacturers has been overstocked, so they have to continuously yield profits, stimulate the downstream market, and relieve the inventory pressure. Under the continuous stimulation of the upstream, the enthusiasm of the downstream market has improved compared with the beginning of the week, and the price drop has decreased.

Saudi Aramco issued CP in February, with propane of 505 US dollars / ton, down 60 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month; butane of 545 US dollars / ton, down 45 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are five kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the fifth week of 2020 (2.3-2.7). The top three commodities are isopropanol (1.47%), 1,4-butanediol (0.82%) and butanone (0.76%). There are 25 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 3 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 3.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are ox (- 7.94%), PX (- 6.67%) and glycol (- 6.47%). This week’s gains and losses were – 0.64%.

3、 Future forecast

Although the downstream storage and replenishment demand after the festival, there is no substantial change in the terminal demand of the propane Market, and the international market is in a downturn, the overall atmosphere of the market is general. However, after the festival, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is relatively large, and the main reason is to make more profits for shipment. It is expected that the market will still fall next week.