1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average price of n-butanol as of Friday (February 14) is 5633 yuan / ton (including tax), which is 267 yuan / ton lower than that of February 7, down 4.52%, 400 yuan / ton lower than that before the Spring Festival, down 6.63%. On February 13, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 45.92, down 1.09 points from yesterday, 54.08% from the highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and 53.63% higher than the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: the quotation of domestic n-butanol market in Shandong started to loosen slightly since last Friday compared with that before the Spring Festival, and the market inquiry atmosphere is general. At the beginning of this week, the market situation of n-butanol was temporarily stable, the market was consolidated and operated, the load and inventory of mainstream manufacturers were low, the delivery and investment atmosphere was improved, but it was still poor. The downstream resumption increased but was far less than expected, and the cost support was weakened. Although the transportation was gradually improved, there was still some uncertainty in the resumption of all links of the industrial chain. The upstream and downstream industrial chains still need time to be repaired, and the high price of n-butanol was quoted Unable to make good progress. There is still pressure in terms of automobile transportation. The manufacturer mainly sells around, accumulates inventory, and moves down the focus of transaction. Zhou Zhong (February 12) made a downward move in the high-end offer of domestic n-butanol market, and the offer was lowered. As of February 14, Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. cut 200 yuan / ton in each region in this week. At present, the ex factory offer of n-butanol in North China is 5900 yuan / ton, and the ex factory offer of n-butanol in North China is 6250 yuan / ton , the factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 6259 yuan / ton. The collective pricing price of Luxi Chemical Industry is 5800 yuan / ton, with medium load. At present, the low price of n-butanol market is acceptable.

Industry chain: this week, the domestic propylene market continued to be weak, the recovery of terminal demand was slow, the operating rate of propylene and downstream units continued to decline, a small amount of downstream demand chose low procurement, and the overall market trading atmosphere was weak. As of February 13, the market price of propylene in Shandong has increased or decreased. During the Spring Festival, the international crude oil market continued to decline sharply, and the domestic propylene price also fell for many times. Since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On November 11, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. Today, the price has fluctuated. At present, the market turnover is about 5750-6200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 5900-6000 yuan / ton. There are many units in the upstream and downstream industries that have been shut down for maintenance, and the operating rate is still low; however, affected by the epidemic situation, some refineries ship at low price under the inventory pressure, and the market transaction is rare, the market is cold, and the wait-and-see is the main thing. It is expected that the market price of propylene will start to fluctuate in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business agency, the low-end price transactions of the surrounding market of the n-butanol manufacturers have eased this week, and the inventory has been released. With the further recovery of logistics and transportation, it is expected that the n-butanol market will not be tested for the low-end price, and the market will maintain stable operation next week.