1、 Price trend

The average price of n-butanol was 5566 yuan / ton (including tax) as of February 24, down 133 yuan or 2.34% compared with that of last Monday (February 17), according to the data of business agency. On February 23, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 46.20, unchanged from yesterday, 53.80% lower than the highest point in the cycle, 100.00 (2011-10-08), and 54.57% higher than the lowest point, 29.89, on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: at the beginning of last week, as the downstream continued to resume work, the butanol market was consolidated and operated, supported by the strong rise of propylene, the load of upstream and downstream plants was low, the downstream demand increased, the market demand slightly improved, and the market trading atmosphere was general. Last week, the large orders of n-butanol market remained at the low end. In the middle of the week, the market inventory accumulated, some manufacturers declined, some sources of goods were still under pressure, and market inquiries were still limited. Some factories in Shandong reported lower prices, and the downstream recovery was still less than expected. The market demand was flat at the weekend, and the manufacturers’ inventory was overstocked at the weekend, the trading was poor, and the price focus was shifted down. Today (Feb. 24), Wanhua chemical reduced 300-400 yuan / ton in each region this week compared with the previous week. At present, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol in North China is 5500 yuan / ton, that of n-butanol in East China is 5700 yuan / ton, and that of n-butanol in North China is 5850 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: since February, the price of propylene in Shandong Province has been declining all the way. On the 11th, the price of some enterprises recovered slightly and then declined. In the next few days, the price rose and fell differently. Since the 17th, the price has been generally increased. Last week, the price of domestic propylene (Shandong) market has been greatly increased. From last Thursday and Friday, some enterprises began to show a slight upward trend. This week, the price of propylene has increased by 8.45%. The average price of enterprises at the beginning of the week is 6103 yuan / ton. The average price of enterprises at the end of the week is 6618 yuan / ton. As of February 21, there is still an increase of about 200 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 6600-6800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6600 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the propylene market has rebounded to the bottom recently, and the crude oil market has not changed much, but it has been raised for several days in a row. There are still many units in the upstream which are shut down for maintenance. In a short time, the supply is difficult to recover, and the propylene output is small. However, the terminal manufacturers have started to resume work one after another, the logistics and transportation have also recovered, and the demand for propylene has increased significantly. Moreover, the PP futures market has been climbing up continuously, and the downstream promotes procurement. Therefore, the It is expected that the market price of propylene will continue to rise in recent days.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysis of the data division of the business association, the supply side of the n-butanol market is relatively sufficient at present, and it is expected that the main market will be digestion inventory in the short term. It is speculated that the n-butanol market is still weak and stable in the near future.