1、 Price trend
In February 2020, the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingots fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 141200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 137712.50 yuan / ton at the end of the month, down 2.47%.
On February 28, the tin commodity index was 70.15, down 0.42 points from yesterday, down 30.02% from the highest point in the cycle, 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 63.67% from the lowest point, 42.86, on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).
2、 Market analysis
Domestic market: this month, the spot tin market as a whole shows a fluctuating downward trend. Most of the enterprises began to return to work in the middle and late ten days. Most of the enterprises in Yunnan have resumed normal production, and the commencement is acceptable. Most of the enterprises in Jiangxi have resumed production at the end of the month, and some of them have left the factory. As of the 28th day, the quotation is 137000-138500 yuan / ton. In the last week, some parts of Shanghai will be replenished after the official resumption of work, but they just need replenishment, and the transaction atmosphere in the spot market is general. Up to the end of the month, the monthly coupon set under the Shanghai tin main force 2006 contract is 3600-3800 yuan / ton, and the ordinary Yunzi is around 3000-3500 yuan / ton. Small brand is around 135600-137000 yuan / ton.
Major domestic events:
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National Bureau of Statistics: according to preliminary accounting, the annual GDP in 2019 increased by 6.1% over the previous year: according to the statement released on its official website on the morning of the 28th day of the National Bureau of statistics, the annual GDP in 2019 was 99086.5 billion yuan, an increase of 6.1% over the previous year. Among them, the added value of the primary industry is 7046.7 billion yuan, an increase of 3.1%; the added value of the secondary industry is 38616.5 billion yuan, an increase of 5.7%; the added value of the tertiary industry is 53423.3 billion yuan, an increase of 6.9%. The added value of the primary industry accounts for 7.1% of the GDP, the added value of the secondary industry accounts for 39.0%, and the added value of the tertiary industry accounts for 53.9%.
China’s official manufacturing PMI in February: 35.7 predicted value: 46; top value: 50. In February, the comprehensive PMI output index was 28.9%, 24.1 percentage points lower than last month, indicating that the overall production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises slowed down. At the same time, the survey results show that with the overall promotion of epidemic prevention and control and economic and social development by the Party Central Committee and the State Council, the recovery rate of enterprises is picking up rapidly, and production and operation activities are recovering in an orderly manner. It is expected that China’s purchasing manager index will improve in March.
Two ministries and commissions: to prevent the prices of steel, coal and other fields from rising sharply due to the centralized resumption of production: the national development and Reform Commission and the Ministry of Civil Affairs issued the notice on giving full play to the role of industry associations and chambers of Commerce to support the resumption of production of private small and medium-sized enterprises. According to the notice, associations and chambers of Commerce in the field of labor-intensive industries should timely report the employment situation and employment difficulties of the industry to local governments or relevant departments, coordinate the implementation of rescue and rescue policies, and ease the labor shortage and employment difficulties caused by the impact of the epidemic. Associations and chambers of Commerce in industries such as steel, coal, electricity, oil, natural gas and basic raw materials should advocate stable supply and price of member enterprises, so as to prevent regional and time-based shortages or sharp price increases caused by centralized resumption of production.
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Industry: the global epidemic spreading crisis has raised the market’s worries about the economic downturn. The global stock market has plummeted, and the risk aversion mood has made gold reach a new high, the bulk commodities have been sold down, and the basic metals at home and abroad have fallen sharply.
3、 Future prospects
From next week to March, the domestic epidemic situation has improved, the return rate of enterprises has increased, and the capital pressure of enterprises at the beginning of the month has eased. However, at present, the spread of the epidemic in the world has increased, global investors are worried that it is difficult to calm down, the selling strength of bulk commodities has not decreased, and domestic metals are afraid to be dragged down.
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