1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average port price of steam coal was about 830 yuan / ton on May 6, and 882.5 yuan / ton on May 7, with a single day increase of 6.33%. On May 6, the steam coal commodity index was 100.00, up 0.45 points from yesterday, down 20.00% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 123.71% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of origin, during the May Day festival, the main production area of steam coal basically maintained a stable state, the pit sales were good, and the coal price in Ordos area of Inner Mongolia temporarily stabilized, but due to the impact of environmental protection inspection, the coal supply was generally in a tight state.

Downstream power plants: in terms of power plants, the coal inventory of power plants is at a low level, and the peak summer is coming. In May, power plants have a strong desire to replenish the stock, and traders are reluctant to sell at high prices, so they are optimistic about the future market. After the overhaul of Datong Qinhuangdao railway line, the volume of the north port transfer increased significantly, and the amount of transfer was increased by about 300 thousand tons during the maintenance period. But the Bohai Rim port inventory is at a low level. Data show that as of April 30, the inventory of Qinhuangdao port was 4.42 million tons, down 115000 tons from March 31.

Macro: the overall release of raw coal is not as expected. On April 16, the National Bureau of statistics released data showing that in March, China produced 340.76 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year decrease of 0.2%, an increase of 9.4% over March 2019, an average increase of 4.6% in two years, and an average daily output of 10.99 million tons; The imported coal was 27.33 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 1.8%. In the first quarter, China produced 970.56 million tons of raw coal, a year-on-year increase of 16.0%, an increase of 15.4% over the first quarter of 2019, and an average increase of 7.4% in two years; The import of coal was 68.46 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 28.5%.

Analysts from business news agency believe that: at this stage, the overall supply of thermal coal in the producing area is in a tight state, and the downstream power plants have inventory demand, and the demand for thermal coal is good. And the peak summer is coming, there is still a strong demand for thermal coal replenishment, and the market sentiment is hot. Traders are reluctant to sell at the price, and they are optimistic about the later period as a whole. On the whole, thermal coal is mainly in strong operation, See the downstream market demand specifically.