Price trend:

According to the data of business club’s block list, the ABS market generally rose in April and then recovered, with different brands of products rising or falling. As of May 1, the average price of general ABS mainstream offer was about 18375 yuan / ton, which was 0.41% higher than the average price in early April and 72.54% higher than that in the same period of last year.

Factor analysis:

In terms of raw materials, styrene has been up since April. April market to undertake at the end of March, enterprise equipment maintenance, terminal replenishment volume. Inflation at the macro level and the favorable domestic demand expectation also affect the market. Many factors have stabilized the market of styrene. At the end of the month, the centralized maintenance was basically completed, the domestic supply recovered obviously, but the port cargo inventory position was low, and the on-site supply was still tight. Upstream pure benzene continued to rise, styrene cost side support is stable, it is expected that the trend will be positive in the short term.

As for butadiene, the domestic butadiene market was mainly volatile in April. The shutdown and maintenance of Fushun Petrochemical Plant boosted the business’s expectation of supply and demand in the small area, but it is still difficult to pull the butadiene market. The prices of Sinopec and some suppliers increased slightly, and some units were shut down during the month. The butadiene market operation rate was once less than 60%. However, the market inventory digestion was slow, the supply continued to be under pressure, the supply in circulation was abundant, and there were many low price transactions, which dragged the butadiene market to a weak downward trend after a short-term shock. The strong external market operation boosted domestic exports in May. Recently, the short-term load of butadiene industry decreased, which promoted the de inventory. The downstream rubber market is weak and the inventory is under pressure, and the new production capacity is expected to be released. It is expected that the domestic butadiene market will be mainly consolidated in the short term.

In April, the ABS cost side market fluctuated, which generally supported the ABS spot price. The first half of last month to undertake the demand of home appliance industry market, boost the spot price. However, the sustained high operating rate of petrochemical enterprises leads to the increasing supply situation in the field. With the further abundant supply of goods in the market, the market competition is strengthened. In the middle of the month, the ABS market quickly recovered and fell below the average price at the beginning of the month. In the second half of the month, there was a small peak of goods preparation before the festival to ease the contradiction between supply and demand and stabilize the ABS fundamentals. At the end of the month, when the terminal stock is completed, the spot price position is still high, and the downstream resistance is strong.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: ABS market rose in April after the fall, the price position of the basic return to the level at the beginning of the month. The trend of raw materials is different, and the support for ABS cost is acceptable. According to the business news agency, one of the main factors affecting the market in April is the continuous high opening rate, which broke the shortage situation in the early stage. At the same time, the abundant supply also strengthened the competition in the market. On the other hand, the end-users maintain high cost pressure, and the procurement operation tends to be rigid demand. On the floor buyers’ resistance weakens trading momentum. In the near future, the domestic ABS supply situation will continue, and it is expected that the spot price will maintain the horizontal consolidation operation, which does not rule out the possibility of a downward adjustment.