1、 Price data

As of August 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 6794.60 yuan / ton, down 1.58% from 6904.00 yuan / ton on August 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 6700-6900 yuan / ton.

As of August 22, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 6660.00 yuan / ton, down 0.78% from 6712.50 yuan / ton on August 16. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 6500-6700 yuan / ton.

On August 22, the naphtha commodity index was 83.86, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.28% from the highest point of 102.62 in the cycle (September 24, 2012), and up 98.53% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016（ Note: period refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of refined naphtha continued to fall, the refined naphtha market was weak, and the downstream was mainly purchased on demand.

Upstream: international crude oil fell sharply, mainly due to the Fed’s expectation of tightening monetary policy, which led to the continuous appreciation of the US dollar and lowered the valuation of oil prices. What is more important is the joint effect of the dual pressure of increasing production in oil producing countries and cooling demand under the influence of the epidemic.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business society, toluene fell continuously this week. The price of toluene was 5772.2 yuan / ton on August 15 and 5682 yuan / ton on August 22, down 15.6% from last week. The price of mixed xylene fell this week. On August 15, the price of mixed xylene was 5850 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the price was 5750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week, down 1.71%. In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable this week, at 7300 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of business society, there are 5 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The top three commodities were coking coal (5.41%), coke (4.23%) and liquefied natural gas (3.68%). A total of 10 commodities decreased month on month, and 2 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were WTI crude oil (- 7.22%), Brent crude oil (- 5.86%) and liquefied gas (- 3.18%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the recent sharp decline in international crude oil, the weak operation of local refined naphtha market, less market trading, downstream on-demand procurement, strong market wait-and-see mood, and it is expected that the weak consolidation of local refined naphtha in the near future.