1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the trend of mixed xylene was stable in the first half of this week, and the price fell near the weekend. On August 15, the price of mixed xylene was 5850 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 22), the price was 5750 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton or 1.71% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 62.89%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell continuously, with a decline of more than 5% in the week, and the external market also fell continuously. The cost support weakened significantly, coupled with the continued weakness of downstream demand, the bearish sentiment in the mixed xylene market was strong, and the price fell during the week.

In terms of external market, as of August 20, the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $766.5/t, down US $52 / T or 6.35% month on month on August 13; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $781.5/t, down US $56.5/t or 6.74% month on month on August 13.

In terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has led to a bearish market on the demand recovery process. In addition, official data show that the oil refining output and economic activity of major emerging market countries have slowed down, the market pessimism has increased, and the international oil price has continued to decline this week. On August 13, Brent fell $5.41 / barrel, or 7.66%; WTI fell $6.12/barrel, or 8.94%.

In the downstream PX market, the domestic PX trend was stable this week, with the price of 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% over the same period last year. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the external price of PX declined. As of August 20, the closing price of PX in Asia was stable this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, up 58.7% over the same period last year. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil continued to decline, and the trend of PX external price declined. As of August 20, the closing prices in Asia were US $857-859 / T FOB Korea and US $865-867 / T CFR China.

In terms of PTA market, PTA in East China fell broadly this week. On Friday (August 20), the price was 5002.73 yuan / ton, down 6.16% from last week and up 39.26% from the same period last year. Some PTA units were restarted and the supply increased slightly. At the same time, the production reduction and shutdown plans of downstream polyester units increased recently, the demand for PTA weakened and the destocking speed slowed down.

In the ox market, the price of orthobenzene was stable this week, and the market of orthobenzene was temporarily stable. On Friday (August 13), the price of ox in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, up 43.18% year-on-year. The upstream and downstream of the o-benzene industrial chain operated smoothly, the rising power of o-benzene was insufficient, the falling pressure was weak, and the o-benzene market was stable.

3、 Future forecast

With the spread of delta virus, the market is more worried about limited demand, and the international oil price may still fall. Continue to pay attention to OPEC + production increase, U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventory data, global stock market and economic data, the latest epidemic situation and geographical situation.

The weak demand side is difficult to change, and the short-term trend of mixed xylene continues to be affected by crude oil. Overall, mixed xylene may still decline, but the decline is limited. Pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance and inventory dynamics of mixed xylene unit and the impact of downstream demand on its price.