Since September, liquid ammonia has reversed the diving market of last month and continued to rebound rapidly. According to the monitoring of business society, liquid ammonia rose by 13.41% this week. As of Friday, liquid ammonia rose by 20.78% since September. At present, the market has recovered most of the land lost in August, and the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong has reached the range of 4400-4600 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, urea plants in major production areas such as northwest and Shanxi are facing centralized maintenance. The domestic urea output has decreased significantly and the price has begun to rise. Some ammonia enterprises have switched to urea, which has exacerbated the contradiction of shortage of liquid ammonia supply, and the price of liquid ammonia is rising.

On the cost side, the coal price continued to rise, and the cost prompted the market price of liquid ammonia to rise. According to the monitoring of the business society, the power coal rose in late August after a short correction in mid and early August, and continued until early September. According to the monitoring of the business society, the power coal rose by more than 15% from August 23 to September 10. (see figure above)

On the demand side, under the background of more troubleshooting enterprises and a significant decline in the average daily output of urea, although the downstream demand has not been fundamentally improved, the terminal procurement is still tight. A small amount of local reserves for domestic agricultural demand to ensure stable rigid demand; The operating rate of compound fertilizer enterprises decreased slightly, and the downstream load production was reduced due to the influence of environmental protection inspectors in Lianghu area. However, the operating rate of the rubber plate factory is acceptable, and the procurement volume increases slightly.

In terms of export, there are still intermittent export orders when Indian bidding is pending. The overall external demand remained stable.

Future forecast: the business agency believes that the recent rising momentum of the coal market remains unchanged, the urea market turns better, and the urea printing standard is approaching, and the maintenance period of the stacking device will continue for some time. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia will remain strong in the near future, which does not rule out the possibility of continued upward price.