1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, aniline continued its decline at the beginning of the week, rose continuously after an unexpected rebound on Tuesday, and prices rose broadly during the week. On September 10, the price in Shandong was 10100-10300 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 10400-10600 yuan / ton; On September 17, the price in Shandong was 11200-11420 yuan / ton, and the price of aniline in Nanjing was 11500 yuan / ton. The price increased by 10.06% over last week, 3.99% over the beginning of the month, 43.04% over the beginning of the year and 137.06% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, affected by the epidemic and typhoon, the arrival of cargo was delayed, the port inventory decreased significantly, the spot supply in East China was tight, which stimulated the active purchase in the downstream, and the market speculation was strong. In the second half of the week, affected by the “double control” policy, the downstream operating rate decreased significantly; In addition, the reserve of pure benzene in the downstream is relatively sufficient due to short supply in the early stage, and the resistance to high priced pure benzene in the downstream is strengthened and the follow-up is weakened. Market buying enthusiasm fell, pure benzene market fell, traders took profits and prices fell. This week, Sinopec’s pure benzene price was raised three times and lowered once, and the adjusted price was 8300-8450 yuan / ton.

The price of nitric acid rose significantly this week. On Friday (September 17), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3090 yuan / ton, an increase of 3% over last week and 103.74% over the same period last year.

Affected by environmental protection policies, the operating rate in the lower reaches of the North decreased last week and the demand for aniline decreased. In order to promote shipment, the price of aniline decreased continuously. On Monday, aniline continued its decline last week, and the price continued to decline. After an unexpected rebound on Tuesday, it rose continuously and the overall price rose broadly. Under the “double control” policy, Jiangsu Yangnong and Jiangsu Fuqiang have unplanned parking; A 100000 t / a unit of Nanhua was shut down to replace the catalyst. At present, aniline in Jiangsu has lost 130000 T / a production capacity. The spot supply in East China was tight, and the inventory of aniline enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi decreased rapidly, driving the overall supply in the field to be tight.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, crude oil deposit may fall; Affected by the “double control” policy in the downstream, the downstream operating rate in East China decreased significantly, and the subsequent demand for pure benzene was weak. At the end of this month, Dalian Fujia and Dalian Hengli planned maintenance, and the supply is expected to decrease, or offset the bad brought by the decline in demand. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will be consolidated at a high level after a slight decline.

In the short term, with the support of cost and the restriction of “dual control” on market supply, aniline is easy to rise but difficult to fall, and the price is expected to return to a high level within the year. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.