1、 Price data

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7625.75 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7638.25 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7700 yuan / ton.

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7562.50 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from 7567.50 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7500-7600 yuan / ton.

On January 23, the naphtha commodity index was 94.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.92% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.82% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week. The Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is not large.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 5930.20 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6050.20 yuan / ton on January 21, up 2.02% from last week. The price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week, with 6290 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6330 yuan / ton on January 21, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 5.8% from 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil continues to rise, the naphtha market cost is supported, the Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the logistics is about to have a holiday. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may fall.