1、 Price trend
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According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on January 21, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with 8340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.44% during the week, 1.68% compared with the beginning of the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.
2、 Market analysis
The PVC market continued to rise this week. The enterprise price increased by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market rose. Recently, the central bank cut interest rates, coupled with the rebound of PVC futures driven by crude oil and coal, boosted the sharp rise of the spot market, reduced the supply of low-cost goods and shifted the focus upward. At the beginning of the week, the disk was strong, driving the PVC market to rise, and the current price rose with it, and the transaction atmosphere was good. At present, the pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival is good, most of them have completed the task, and the offer is firm. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the procurement volume has decreased, PVC has entered the routine accumulation stage, the supply and demand side has gradually weakened, PVC has insufficient action force, and enters the sorting stage at the weekend. By the end of the weekend, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises was mostly around 8300-8850 yuan / ton. Pvc5 electric stone was delivered at 8550-8600 yuan / ton in Tianjin. The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, and the market prices all over the country increased.
According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell in the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It rose slightly in the second half of January, with less rise and more fall in the cycle.
region workmanship 1 / 21 (yuan / ton) 1 / 17 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks
East China Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Ex warehouse
south China Calcium carbide method 8700-8900 8600-8700 + 100/+200 Ex warehouse
North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8750 8450-8550 + 100/+200 Deliver
southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Deliver
For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.
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International crude oil prices fell slightly on January 21. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.14/barrel, down US $0.41 or 0.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $87.89/barrel, down US $0.49 or 0.6%. Oil prices continued Thursday’s trend and fell slightly, mainly affected by the negative impact of the increase in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but tight supply expectations have not changed, limiting the decline in oil prices.
Ethylene, the overall market price of external ethylene rose. Ethylene prices in Asia fell. As of the 21st, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $921-931 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $936-946 / ton. European ethylene market was mixed. As of the 21st, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1573-1584 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1481-1490 / ton.
On January 21, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4400.00, a decrease of 4.69% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide was mainly subject to slight shock and decline. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was not large. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of business society believe that the Spring Festival is coming, the transportation capacity is limited, the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the demand is reduced, and the PVC fundamentals are gradually weak. It is expected to focus on narrow adjustment in the short term.
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