In July, the domestic methanol market first fell and then rose, and the overall market atmosphere improved slightly. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the methanol market in eastern China was 2520 yuan / ton at the beginning of July, and the price was 2597 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The price rose by 3.06% in the month, with the maximum amplitude of 12.18%, up 0.46% year-on-year.
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According to the price monitoring of the business community, in July 2022, there were two kinds of commodities with month on month rise in the energy sector in the list of commodity prices, with methanol (phase) (3.06%) and liquefied natural gas (2.46%) rising in the top two. A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, with a total of 7 commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 53.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were MTBE (-14.87%), petroleum coke (-9.19%) and WTI crude oil (-8.83%). The average rise and fall this month was -4.96%.
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of July 29:
Region, price
Qinghai region. No quotation at present
Shanxi region, 2430 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Liaoning region, 2650 yuan / ton, delivered to spot exchange
Fujian. The mainstream negotiation is 2520-2550 yuan / ton
In the two lakes region, the mainstream enterprises negotiate for reference, about 2410-2450 yuan / ton
Anhui region, transaction range refers to 2540-2560 yuan / ton, factory withdrawal and acceptance
Henan Province, ex factory reference 2550 yuan / ton, factory withdrawal cash exchange
At the beginning of the month, the domestic methanol market was depressed and sorted out, and transactions in the mainland were heavy again, while the coastal market performed generally. Under the background of stable cost support, replenishment demand and mainland rigid demand, the volume of transactions in the main production areas is large; The terminal receiving price is subject to high inventory and general price performance.
In the first ten days of the month, the domestic methanol market continued to fall. At present, the macro situation is negative. At the same time, the breaking position of the futures market fell, and the market sentiment weakened, but the overall follow-up is not fast, and the decline is limited.
In the middle of August, the domestic methanol market was depressed and the decline slowed down. The receiving price in northern Shandong, the main end market, is down synchronously, and the inventory of raw materials in local downstream factories is high, causing serious vehicle crushing.
In late August, the domestic methanol market showed a slight upward trend, but the momentum was insufficient and the upward trend was weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.
In July, the price of methanol industrial chain products rose and fell, with an upward and downward trend from raw materials to the downstream. The international crude oil market was strong, Brent was -10.63% month on month in July, with a year-on-year increase of +42.00%. Among downstream products, prices rose and fell in July. Among them, the price of glacial acetic acid fell the most, with a month on month decrease of -17.94% and a year-on-year decrease of -40.92%; The price of formaldehyde in Shandong increased the most, with a month on month increase of +5.28%.
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In terms of external trading, as of the close on July 28, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was $357.50-358.50 / ton, up $3.5 / ton. The closing price of Gulf methanol market in the United States is 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 384.50-385.00 euros / ton.
Region, country, closing price, rise and fall
Asia, CFR Southeast Asia, 357.50-358.50 USD / ton, 3.5 USD / ton
Europe, America, Gulf of America, 113.50-114.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon
Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 384.50-385.00 euros / ton, 0 euros / ton
Crude oil is expected to rise in August, but coal prices may decline. At the same time, methanol supply is relatively abundant, and the demand side is expected to rise in a narrow range. Methanol analysts of the business club expect that the domestic methanol market will mainly recover in the short term.
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