1、 Market trend analysis of upstream acetic acid

In July, the domestic acetic acid market continued its decline in June, with both supply and demand weak, but the decline slowed slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, acetic acid fell by 14.85% in July (nearly 25% in June). The market decline was mainly affected by sluggish demand. Although the manufacturer has been de stocking in July, and the reduction of load has reduced the operating rate, the weak downstream procurement has continued to decline the price of acetic acid. This month, the 1.2 million ton unit in Celanese was overhauled, and the 700000 ton unit in Shanghai Huayi was gradually restarted. At present, acetic acid manufacturers have approached the cost line, the pace of price adjustment has slowed down, the hollow state of the market has eased slightly, the shipment volume in some parts of China has improved slightly in the late days, and the market transaction has improved. At the end of the month, the price of acetic acid was about 3300-3400 yuan / ton.

2、 Market trend analysis of ethyl acetate

In July, domestic ethyl acetate continued to fluctuate and decline, with a decline of 4.76% this month according to the statistics of business agency, mainly due to the negative cost caused by the falling price of raw acetic acid. More importantly, the downstream demand continued to be sluggish, and the procurement gradually slowed down, resulting in the ethyl acetate Market inventory still at a relatively high level. It is worth noting that the decline of ethyl acetate slowed down significantly this month, mainly because the operating rate of ethyl acetate manufacturers decreased significantly, and the average operating rate in July was generally less than 40%. The manufacturer’s attitude of supporting prices is becoming stronger. In addition, the bidding situation of Shandong big factory is better, and some of them are traded at a premium. At the end of the month, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

3、 Market trend analysis of butyl acetate

In July, the decline of domestic butyl acetate was strong. According to the monitoring of business society, the monthly decline of butyl acetate was 15.41%. Under the background of the decline of acetic acid (-14.85%) and n-butanol (-2.08%), the negative cost of butyl acetate intensified. After the middle of July, the price of n-butanol rebounded, and butyl followed its upward trend. However, due to the downstream demand, the market gradually fell near the end of the month. After the butyl acetate manufacturer lost cost support, the price fell sharply, and the market trading was light. At the end of the month, the domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate was 8500-8800 yuan / ton.

4、 Analysis of acetic acid industry chain

From the comparison chart of the rise and fall of acetic acid industrial chain, it can be seen that the overall acetic acid industrial chain was relatively weak in July, and acetic acid and downstream products fell across the board. It has a great impact on the whole industrial chain. The downstream butyl acetate, acetic anhydride and other products have decreased significantly, and the decline of ethyl acetate has slowed down. On the whole, the profits of acetic acid and downstream butyl acetate and ethyl acetate enterprises have gradually been significantly compressed.

5、 Outlook of acetic acid industry chain

Future forecast: in the later stage, the acetic acid industry chain is still weak. There are rumors of restart in Celanese in the short term, the market supply is still under pressure, and the price of acetic acid is still suppressed. The downstream ethyl acetate and butyl acetate units have little change in the short term. The market is still in the process of destocking, but due to weak demand, the downstream operating rate continues to be depressed, so it is difficult for ethyl ester and butyl ester to get out of the rebound market.