According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 14 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the first half of November was mainly stable, with the main report of 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15471.43 yuan/ton on the 14th of the month, and a slight increase of 0.28% in the half month. Last month, following the policy of stopping production and resuming production, the manufacturer started work normally with sufficient inventory; Earlier this month, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, said that the impact of public health events continued, with limited transportation, slow delivery of goods and reduced orders; Although the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to rise, the acrylic acid is stable and weak, the downstream demand is general, and the polyacrylamide market is stable and fluctuates slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market in the first half of November continued to rise continuously since the beginning of September, and the high level was firm. On November 14, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11370 yuan/ton, 3.65% higher than the price of 10970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the commencement of acrylonitrile unit is lower, on the other hand, the raw propylene market is significantly higher and the cost is rising, and the downstream commencement continues to maintain a high level, forming a rigid demand support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the first half of November was stable and fell, and the transaction atmosphere in the downstream procurement market was light and stable. On November 14, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, 2.03% lower than the price of 8200 yuan/ton on November 1, 0.82% lower than the same period last year, and 54.27% lower than the same period last year. According to the analysis, at present, the pressure on the cost side is increasing, and the downstream is mainly following up on demand, with little change in the supply and demand side. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly reorganized and operated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of business cooperatives, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 13.54% in the first half of this month: the market price of LNG was about 4712 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 5450 yuan/ton on the first day. Recently, due to the downturn in terminal demand, the market for liquefied natural gas continued to run weak due to the oversupply in the market. The industry held a wait-and-see attitude, with gains and losses in various regions of China. Although the cost has some support, the demand side has not improved, and the LNG market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: The economic downturn, the multiple impacts of public health events, and the continued weak demand will lead to a weaker market this year than the same period in previous years. With few orders and sufficient inventory, the surge of raw material acrylonitrile did not drive the rise of polyacrylamide. Judging from the current situation, the heating season is coming, and the future market will remain stable and weak.