According to the price monitoring of the business community, since November, the domestic PTA spot market has experienced strong fluctuations. As of November 14, the average price in the East China market was 5809 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the beginning of the month and 16.71% year on year. It is mainly driven by the contraction of the supply side and the upward shift of the cost side. Specifically:

In terms of PTA supply, recently, with the reduction of 80% to 90% in some plants in South China and the maintenance of 350000 tons of small chemical fiber lines in Yizheng, the operating rate of PTA devices has continued to shrink, and the current operating rate of the industry has fallen back to around 75%. The overall market supply shows a tightening trend, with less cash in circulation and less readily available cash sold by traders.

The crude oil price showed high volatility. In November, OPEC+started to reduce production, and the crude oil supply is expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day. In addition, the demand for refined oil is still good, and the short-term demand for crude oil is strong in the fourth quarter when refinery operation remains high. As of November 11, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.96 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.99 dollars/barrel.

However, the demand side is still the key factor restricting the PTA price. Downstream polyester enterprises have accelerated production reduction. At the same time, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing have rapidly shrunk. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to below 60%. Some factories have holidays in advance. Downstream costs are weak to keep up. Terminal orders are scarce, and the market is generally pessimistic.

Analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand structure of crude oil is still biased, the oil price oscillation is strong, the supply of PX is still tight, and the cost support function appears. However, PTA unit maintenance will restart and new production capacity is expected to be put into production, so supply may increase. At the same time, I heard that some end weaving enterprises have prepared to start their annual leave in advance. The terminal demand is weak, and the weak supply and demand of PTA is a drag on their prices. Therefore, PTA will focus on weak shock adjustment in the short term. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the production progress of new units.