Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends
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Silicon metal prices continued to decline this week, with high inventory and sluggish demand still being important factors constraining prices. At the same time, the rebound in precipitation in the southwest region and the expected increase in resumption of production are also factors contributing to the downward trend of the spot market. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 15th, the average price of 441 # metal silicon spot market in China was 15460 yuan/ton, a decrease of -3.25% on a weekly basis. The futures market fell by -7.06% throughout the week, closing at 14150 yuan/ton.
The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 15th are as follows:
The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 15100-15400 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15400-15500 yuan/ton, with an average of 15450 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 15300-15400 yuan/ton, with an average of 15350 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15700-15900 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15800 yuan/ton.
Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal
On the supply side:
This week, the overall number of silicon metal furnaces was 283. As of May 12th, the silicon metal furnace rate was around 39.42%, with 144 furnaces in Xinjiang, 28 furnaces in Sichuan, and 24 furnaces in Yunnan. Under the current price, the pressure of losses for silicon factories continues to increase, and the supply in the northwest has slightly contracted. The precipitation in the southwest has rebounded, and the number of furnaces in Sichuan has started to increase, while there is currently no intention of opening furnaces in Yunnan.
In terms of demand:
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This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon continued its downward trend, with a significant decline in the market after the holiday. The domestic supply prices generally decreased by around 10000 to 15000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream range of single crystal density for models of primary solar energy has reached 145000 to 165000 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon enterprises have a relatively high level of operation, with most manufacturers maintaining normal operation and ample supply performance, with good demand for metallic silicon.
The price of aluminum alloy ADC12 decreased by 200 yuan/ton compared to the beginning of the month, with a mainstream quotation of 18200 yuan/ton. The profit compression of aluminum alloy enterprises is significant, and the overall operating rate has declined.
The reference price of domestic silicone DMC market is 14500 yuan/ton. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market has not improved well, and downstream demand is cautious, with demand support still being mainly loose. There has been little change in the construction of organic silicon DMC, and there is still some pressure on the supply side in some regions.
Future Market Forecast
Overall, downstream demand has not improved and there is a significant pressure to remove inventory. Currently, the overall supply of metallic silicon continues to exceed demand. At present, production costs in the southern region have decreased, and there is an expectation of resuming production and supply. It is expected that metal silicon will still have a weak downward trend in the short term.
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