Nickel prices fell weakly this week (5.8-5.12)

1、 Trend analysis

 

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According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices have slightly declined this week. As of May 12th, the spot nickel quotation was 177350 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8% from the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 18.37%.

 

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

 

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 5 and fallen by 7 in the past 12 weeks, with a weak decline in nickel prices recently.

 

Nickel industry chain

 

LME nickel inventory

 

On a macro level, the International Monetary Fund has stated that if the United States defaults on its debt, it will have a very serious negative impact on the US and global economy. Biden was originally scheduled to postpone negotiations on the debt ceiling with House Speaker McCarthy on Friday until next week. Federal Reserve hawkish official Kalikash stated that despite a short-term slowdown, inflation remains too high, and the Federal Reserve will have to maintain a tightening monetary policy for a longer period of time. The Bank of England announced a 25 basis point increase in its benchmark interest rate to 4.5% and stated that further tightening of monetary policy is necessary if there is more holding pressure on inflation.

 

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In terms of supply: Recently, the Russian Nickel Association has been receiving goods one after another, and coupled with an increase in the output of domestic electrowinning nickel projects, the global low inventory pattern of pure nickel may be difficult to continue. In terms of secondary nickel, Indonesia’s newly invested production capacity has been released, and nickel iron continues to flow back, thus impacting the domestic market.

 

In terms of demand: The weak real estate sector has led to a decrease in stainless steel production. The demand for new energy vehicles also fell short of expectations. Although the production and sales of new energy vehicles in China still maintain year-on-year growth, the production capacity of battery grade nickel sulfate has shown signs of excess. In addition, the relative advantage of lithium iron phosphate battery in price has reduced the demand for nickel.

 

In summary, macro data performance is poor, with fundamental nickel prices plummeting but downstream consumption not actively purchasing on dips. The increase in nickel element supply is exerting significant pressure on nickel prices, and it is expected that nickel prices will remain weak in the short term.

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