According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of the sample enterprises of the business community was 9275.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the price of the sample enterprises was 9400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.35%. The price increased by 3.49% over the same period last year.

cement

The market price of styrene fluctuated and rose this week. It can be seen from the above figure that the price of styrene fluctuated recently, and the price increased slightly this week. Recently, the raw material pure benzene fluctuated and rose. Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hebei shengteng styrene units unexpectedly stopped for short-term maintenance, which superimposed the decline of port inventory. Out of concern about the market supply, the spot market of styrene rose.

In terms of raw materials, the international oil price fell, the pure benzene market negotiation was light, the logistics in Shandong was blocked due to the impact of public health events, the shipment of individual enterprises was poor, and the price difference between regions was widened. The overall atmosphere of pure benzene Market in Shandong is poor, with high-end prices falling and the price difference narrowing. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene stabilized at 8600 yuan / ton.

Downstream, the three downstream styrene rose or fell this week. The market price of PS was relatively stable this week, and the average price was 10616.67 yuan / ton by the end of the week.

At present, the EPS price fluctuates, the crude oil fluctuates at a high level, and the impact of public health events is still obvious. However, the local logistics and transportation restrictions have been improved. In addition, the cost support has been strengthened, and some terminal merchants have entered the market to replenish goods appropriately, and the overall transaction has improved. As of April 7, Jiangsu sample enterprises had 11100 yuan / ton of ordinary materials, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.91%, and 12000 yuan / ton of barrier fuel, up 100 yuan / ton, or 0.84%.

At the beginning of April, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. The operating rate of ABS enterprises decreased slightly, and the overall supply decreased. The mentality of manufacturers has been strengthened and the ex factory price has been adjusted. In addition, the demand of the main downstream household appliance industry gradually increased in April, and the demand for ABS in the field improved. China’s demand for health and logistics has rebounded recently, but some areas have been affected by recent health events. There has been no substantial progress in the situation between Russia and Ukraine in Eastern Europe. There are great differences in the remote upstream crude oil market, but the price is still high.

Recently, the international crude oil has rebounded, the downstream demand may recover, the current inventory level and market supply are OK, and styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. Generally speaking, if the raw material level rises next week, the styrene market will follow the rise.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of food grade vitamin C was 40.67 yuan / kg, with no rise or fall.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the purchase of vitamin C in the domestic market improved slightly this week. At present, the mainstream price of feed grade is 35-38 yuan / kg, and the mainstream price of feed grade is 38-40 yuan / kg. The factory continues to stop reporting, and the actual situation is a single discussion. The downstream rigid demand is the main thing, and the price negotiation is the main thing.

The price of corn is expected to rise moderately in the upper half of April, while the price of corn in the main production area will rise moderately in the upper half of April, and the price of corn in the main production area will rise again in the lower half of April.

The price of vitamin a rose slightly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin A was 231 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 234 yuan / kg at the weekend. The European market quoted 63-68 euros / kg. At the end of April, foreign vitamin factories had plans to stop production, and the award-winning boosted the domestic VA market.

The price of vitamin E was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of feed grade vitamin E was stable at 92 yuan / kg without rise or fall. The European market quotation this week is 9.9-11.5 euros / kg, and the foreign quotation is upward. Thanks to the news of price increase at home and abroad, the price of domestic vitamin E is strong and upward.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that: on the whole, the overall vitamin market is stable and small this week. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of April 6, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8416 yuan / ton. Compared with April 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8433 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 17 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.2%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business society that in April, on the eve of the Qingming Festival, the trading atmosphere of domestic n-propanol in the field was cold, the downstream goods preparation performance before the festival was general, and the inventory of domestic n-propanol in the field accumulated. On the 2nd, the suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong adjusted the shipping price of n-propanol according to their own inventory, driving the overall market price of n-propanol in Shandong down slightly, with a reduction range of about 100-200 yuan / ton, The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7800-8000 yuan / ton. During the Qingming holiday, supported by the strong trend of raw materials, the domestic n-propanol market picked up slightly on the 4th and 5th, and the market price of n-propanol in Shandong rose to around 7850-8000 yuan / ton. After returning from the Tomb Sweeping Day holiday, on the 6th, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong continued to rise slightly, with a rise range of around 50-100 yuan / ton. The market price of n-propanol is around 7900-8100 yuan / ton, and the high-end quotation is around 8500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. There are also differences in each region, mainly through actual negotiation, Wait and see the price change and shipment of raw materials in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, after the Qingming Festival, the external ethylene market generally rose. On April 5, in the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1396-1406 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1426-1436 / ton. European ethylene market fell slightly. As of the 5th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1994-2004 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1544-1553 / ton. Ethylene analysts at the chemical branch of business agency believe that the international crude oil futures market fell. On the macro level, due to the expectation of interest rate increase by the Federal Reserve, the rise of the US dollar affected the valuation of oil prices. On the demand side, market participants expressed concern about the slowdown in demand caused by public health events, and oil prices were under pressure. But at the same time, the supply side was subject to Western sanctions against Russia, resulting in damage to output, and supply concerns limited the decline in oil prices. Therefore, the data analysts of the business agency expect that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall below next.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-propanol is mainly just demand procurement, and the support given by the supply side is acceptable. The n-propanol data division of business society believes that in the short term, China’s domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Trade name: polybutadiene rubber BR9000

Latest price (April 6): 14390 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business society, as of April 9, the domestic price of cis-polybutadiene rubber was 14390 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.49% over the previous day; Domestic enterprises Haopu and Xinjiang Lande units shut down, Zhenhua, Daqing and other Shunding units reduce the load, Jinzhou Petrochemical also has a maintenance plan in the near future, the supply of Shunding rubber is tight, and the expected shutdown of Maoming Petrochemical accident promotes the bullish atmosphere. According to the business agency, as of April 6, the ex factory price of Daqing Shunding in PetroChina East China sales company branch was 14400 yuan / ton. Qilu, Daqing, Lande, Qixiang and Zhenhua Shunding markets in East China reported 14200 ~ 15200 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of raw butadiene continues to remain high and stable, with strong cost support.

Future forecast: on the one hand, although the price and cost of raw butadiene support; On the other hand, the supply side of some enterprises is tightening due to the overhaul or planned overhaul of CIS polybutadiene devices. It is expected that the CIS polybutadiene rubber market will continue to rise in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price of diethylene glycol rose this month. On March 1, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 4836 yuan / ton, and on March 31, the average price of diethylene glycol in the domestic market was 5090 yuan / ton. The price of diethylene glycol rose by 5.24% this month.

2、 Market analysis

The diethylene glycol market fluctuated upward this month. In early March, the price trend of diethylene glycol fluctuated and rose. The military situation in Russia and Ukraine is ongoing, and the political situation is tense. International oil prices began to fall after rising sharply. The operating rate of UPR at the downstream of diethylene glycol is about 27%. In mid March, the price of diethylene glycol first fell and then rose. The tight military situation in Russia and Ukraine has an impact on the supply of diethylene glycol. International oil prices first fell sharply and then rebounded and rose. The operating rate of UPR in the downstream of diethylene glycol is about 27%. In late March, Russia Ukraine negotiations released positive signals, and the trend of diethylene glycol rose. The price of diethylene glycol fluctuates with the crude oil market. The operating rate of UPR in the upper and lower reaches increased by 23% in the three months to October. The total mainstream inventory of diethylene glycol was 58000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons month on month. The domestic market quotation in East China is 5050-5080 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, negotiations between Russia and Ukraine are under way, and the situation has eased slightly. The trend of international crude oil is dominant, and the field needs to be operated with caution. The downstream demand for diethylene glycol is insufficient and the confidence in the industry is insufficient. Diethylene glycol analysts of business society believe that the market price of diethylene glycol will rise slightly in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the change of crude oil.

Zinc prices rose in March

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the zinc market recovered in March, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose. As of March 31, the price of zinc was 26722 yuan / ton, up 6.45% from 25102 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. In the first ten days of March, the price of zinc fluctuated and adjusted significantly, and the price of zinc fluctuated and rose in the middle and late ten days. Overall, the supply and demand of zinc market are both weak, and the zinc price fluctuates and rises.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai Futures Market

Time, Futures inventory ., Increase or decrease

March 1, one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty .,- six hundred and twenty-six

March 2, 106320., 0

March 3rd ., 109258., two thousand nine hundred and thirty-eight

March 4, one hundred and ten thousand nine hundred and forty-eight ., one thousand six hundred and ninety

March 7, one hundred and fourteen thousand six hundred and fifty-one ., three thousand seven hundred and three

March 8, one hundred and seventeen thousand six hundred and sixty-six ., three thousand and fifteen

March 9, one hundred and seventeen thousand nine hundred and forty-two ., two hundred and seventy-six

March 10th ., 118935., nine hundred and ninety-three

March 11, one hundred and twenty-one thousand eight hundred and ninety-five ., two thousand nine hundred and sixty

March 14, one hundred and twenty-five thousand five hundred and six ., three thousand six hundred and eleven

March 15th ., 130267., four thousand seven hundred and sixty-one

March 16, 131221., nine hundred and fifty-four

March 17, 130393., – eight hundred and twenty-eight

March 18, one hundred and thirty thousand two hundred and forty-four .,- one hundred and forty-nine

March 21, one hundred and twenty-nine thousand three hundred and forty-two .,- nine hundred and two

March 22, one hundred and twenty-eight thousand and twelve .,- one thousand three hundred and thirty

March 23, 126728., – one thousand two hundred and eighty-four

March 24, 125952., – seven hundred and seventy-six

March 25th ., 125723., – two hundred and twenty-nine

March 28, one hundred and twenty-five thousand five hundred and twenty-three .,- two hundred

March 29, one hundred and twenty-five thousand two hundred and sixty-nine .,- two hundred and fifty-four

March 30, one hundred and twenty-five thousand one hundred and sixty-nine .,- one hundred

March 31, one hundred and twenty-four thousand four hundred and eighty-five ,.- six hundred and eighty-four

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, it can be seen that the rise of zinc inventory in March slowed down. Since March 17, the zinc ingot futures inventory in Shanghai futures market has continued to decline. As of March 31, the zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market has decreased, the supply of zinc in Shanghai has decreased, the downward pressure of zinc price has weakened, and the upward momentum has increased.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect the supply of zinc in the city

Since the end of February, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine has continued to ferment, the price of natural gas in Europe has soared, and the cost of zinc smelting has risen, affecting the supply of zinc market. The future supply of zinc market is expected to decrease, and the rising power of zinc market has increased. Subsequently, the conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the high price of natural gas in Europe fell, and the cost of zinc smelting decreased. However, the cost of zinc smelting is still high, the supply of zinc market is expected to decrease, and the rising power of zinc market still exists.

Domestic epidemic hit zinc City

The epidemic has spread again in China. The capricious epidemic has destabilized the metal market, resulting in insufficient supply of raw materials and blocked logistics transportation, which continues to interfere with the normal operation of the supply chain, seriously affecting the production of local enterprises. The construction of downstream enterprises in zinc city has decreased, and the overall demand of zinc city is weak.

The epidemic affects domestic production and operation

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry was 49.5% in March, down 0.7 percentage points from the previous month, lower than the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of the manufacturing industry fell somewhat. The emergence of aggregated public health events in many places in China and the significant increase of international geopolitical instability have affected the production and operation activities of Chinese enterprises to a certain extent. In March, the manufacturing purchasing manager index, non manufacturing business activity index and comprehensive PMI output index all fell below the critical point, and the overall prosperity level of China’s economy fell back. The decline of the overall economic level has affected the supply and demand of zinc market, and the overall zinc market has weakened. With the epidemic under control, the suppressed production and demand will gradually recover, and the market is expected to pick up. Zinc market demand is expected to pick up in the future.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in early March, affected by the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, zinc prices soared and plummeted; Since the middle of the year, with the relative easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high zinc price has dropped. Since the middle and late days, but with the recurrence of the domestic epidemic, the supply and demand of zinc price are weak, the overall supply is in short supply, and the zinc price fluctuates and rises. Generally speaking, the supply of zinc in the future market is expected to decrease, the demand of zinc in the future market recovers slowly, the bad situation in zinc market weakens and the good situation increases, and the zinc price fluctuates and rises in the future market.

In March, the domestic Shunding market rose slightly. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of March 31, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 14200 yuan / ton, up 3.80% from 13680 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The price of raw butadiene rose sharply, with strong cost support. In addition, partial load reduction and parking of cis-polybutadiene rubber enterprises have tightened the supply side, which has a beneficial impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber and promoted the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber upward; However, the increase of downstream demand is not obvious, and the upward range of Shunding is restricted to some extent.

In March, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was supported by CIS polybutadiene rubber. Butadiene plants abroad have entered the maintenance season, and the tight market supply continues to push butadiene to a high level. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 31, the price of butadiene was 10708 yuan / ton, up 28.02% from 8365 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The natural rubber market was weak and volatile in March. As of March 31, the price was 13190 yuan / ton, up 1.00% from 13060 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; During the month, the high point was 13480 yuan / ton and the low point was 12780 yuan / ton.

The operating rate of downstream tires is differentiated, and the operation of semi steel tires has increased significantly, but the operation of all steel tires has been depressed. It is understood that the operating rate of domestic semi steel tire production line closed at 72.2%, while the operating rate of all steel tire production line closed at 56.6%. In addition, according to the data of the General Administration of customs, 35.05 million new pneumatic rubber tires were exported in February 2022, a year-on-year decrease of 15.6%; From January to February 2022, 90.37 million new pneumatic rubber tires were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the easing of supply pressure and the sharp rise of cost support cis-polybutadiene rubber, but the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate at a high level in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this month, and the average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 19000.00 yuan / ton on March 1 to 17733.33 yuan / ton on March 30, down 1266.67 yuan / ton, or 6.67%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol decreased slightly this month: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the end of the month was 17500 yuan / ton, which decreased by 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month; The selling price of Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the end of the month was 17700 yuan / ton, which was 1300 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the month; The selling price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the end of the month was 18000 yuan / ton, which decreased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price has twists and turns this month. The quotation first increased from 13866.67 yuan / ton on March 1 to 15466.67 yuan / ton on March 10, an increase of 11.54%, then decreased to 10833.33 yuan / ton on March 21, a decrease of 29.96%, and then increased to 15966.67 yuan / ton, an increase of 47.38%. Overall, the isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly this month, up 15.14% for the whole month. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, which had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol due to the influence of supply and demand.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of neopentyl glycol market in the middle and early April may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PC market rebounded after rising this month, and the spot price was higher than that at the beginning of the month. As of March 29, the reference offer of PC sample enterprises of business society was about 22683.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.42% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The upstream and downstream markets of epoxy resin and propylene oxide products are relatively weak, while the upstream and downstream markets of epoxy resin products are relatively weak. In the middle of the year, due to the sharp correction of international crude oil, the market wait-and-see mood increased, and the bisphenol a market continued its downward trend in the latter half of the year. The terminal demand remained sluggish this month, and the market atmosphere was cold. Offer for profit under the pressure of the carrier. Downstream large enterprises are mostly contract oriented, and it is expected that the short-term bisphenol a market may be difficult to warm up.

Upstream bisphenol a market rose and then fell, and the support for PC cost side was strong first and then weak. In terms of industrial load, some domestic PC enterprises had maintenance at the beginning of the month, and some completed work and production resumption within the month, but the overall load change was limited. In the last ten days of the year, the products of the new production line were put into operation in the field, and the profit of the supply side was gradually diluted out within a month. There was no substantial progress in the tension in Eastern Europe, which affected the finishing of the rise in the far upstream crude oil. Although it rose again in the latter ten days, there were great differences among market participants and the downward transmission of benefits was poor. In addition, the shipment mentality of some businesses is weak, and the domestic market is affected by the health market adjustment.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that: in March, the domestic PC market rebounded after the rise, the upstream bisphenol a market was under pressure after the rise, and the cost side support for PC changed from strong to weak. In terms of supply, the on-site supply of goods increased slightly. This month, the downstream demand side mainly took the goods contract, and the trading was light. In addition, some regions were restricted by health events, and the market momentum decreased. It is expected that the spot price may continue to be weak in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has declined. Recently, the rare earth market has continued to decline. Recently, the price of praseodymium and neodymium in China has fallen sharply, and the price of terbium in the heavy rare earth market has fallen. On March 27, the rare earth index was 918 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.84% from the highest point 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 238.75% from the lowest point 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

In March, the price trend of domestic light rare earth market fell, and the price of praseodymium neodymium series, the mainstream of rare earth market, fell. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide have declined. As of the 28th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 1.05 million yuan / ton, down 13.93%; The price of neodymium was 1.31 million yuan / ton, down 11.78%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 985000 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 9.63%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 985000 yuan / ton, down 10.86%; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.21 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 11.68%; The price of metal praseodymium was 1.315 million yuan / ton, with the price falling by 5.40%, and the trend of domestic rare earth market fell sharply.

The price of rare earth in the domestic market fell sharply, mainly due to the lack of active downstream procurement and consumption of inventory. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some downstream production was affected and downstream demand was limited. In addition, affected by the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the downstream magnetic material enterprises continued to reduce inventory, the demand for spot procurement was weak, and the trend of rare earth market fell. Due to the decrease in demand, the supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide of some large upstream groups is normal, the demand for permanent magnet has little change, the new energy industry is relatively normal, and the demand for rare earth permanent magnet of upstream materials is acceptable. The sales of new energy vehicles were normal, the demand for rare earth was normal, the delivery of rare earth oxides was poor, and the price fell. The rare earth metal factory was more cautious in purchasing without lock orders, and the market price of rare earth in the field fell sharply.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing, and the peak season of rare earth demand is over. However, the launch of relevant policies in the rare earth industry is expected, and the market price of rare earth is still supported. At present, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide is much lower than that in the early stage, and the buyers are affected by the mood of buying up or not buying down, and the price in the floor is declining. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, in February 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.813 million and 1.737 million respectively, with a month on month decrease of 25.2% and 31.4%, a year-on-year increase of 20.6% and 18.7%. Automobile production and sales showed a steady and slight growth. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is high, the delivery situation in the domestic light rare earth market is poor, and the price is low. Affected by this, the price trend of domestic heavy rare earth market fell.

As can be seen from the trend chart, the price of dysprosium Series in China fell sharply. As of the 28th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.835 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 9.42%; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.825 million yuan / ton, with a monthly decrease of 9.31%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.815 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.27%; The price of terbium Series in China has declined. The price of terbium oxide in China is 13.65 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.65 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth has declined, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market has fallen, and the purchase of leading magnetic material factory is not active, which has led to the decline of domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, some separation enterprises in the areas where medium and heavy rare earth mines are used such as Jiangxi, Hunan, Guangdong and Guangxi have restarted, and the supply has eased, which has led to the decline of heavy rare earth market price. However, Myanmar’s export is limited, and the global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated, Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is not active, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend has fallen sharply.

In addition, the national policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. On the 28th, the Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the ore indicators and smelting separation indicators were 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the state is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. The first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators in 2022 are + 20% year-on-year, and the growth rate is lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year + 27.3% / 27.6%). It is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still focused on light rare earths. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock ore type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, with a year-on-year increase of + 23.2%, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, with a year-on-year balance. It is expected that the increment will be concentrated in light rare earths, which will be a long-term trend, and there is still support from domestic rare earths.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand is guaranteed. However, the recent downstream procurement is not active, the accumulation of rare earth enterprises is increasing, the recent on-site transaction market is general, and the later supply enterprises will continue to drive and restart. Chen Ling, an analyst of health society, expects the price trend of rare earth market to decline in the later period.

According to the data of business agency, from March 18 to 25, the domestic MTBE market rose first and then fell. The overall rise was that the price of MTBE rose from 7612 yuan / ton to 7975 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price rose by 4.77%, the price rose by 9.85% month on month and 39.67% year-on-year.

MTBE market rose again, with an increase of about 100-500 yuan / ton. After the price fell to a low level last week, downstream businesses replenished on bargain hunting, and business sales are getting better and better. At the same time, the international crude oil rose again, and the Brent price gradually rose again to above US $120 / barrel, which gave a strong support to the commodity market. In addition, the gasoline price also continued to rise this week, and the demand for raw materials increased, stimulating MTBE businesses to follow up. However, due to the obstruction of transportation, it is difficult to fully open the demand side and make the market rise unsustainable.

In terms of methanol, the domestic methanol market rose first and then fell this week. The rebound of crude oil and the continuous low level of social inventory contributed to the rise of this round of methanol market. However, with the rise of order transfer, the transaction is not smooth and the decline of crude oil, the market sentiment has changed rapidly, the focus of negotiation began to fall, and the transaction atmosphere has obviously weakened. The price market then fell narrowly.

In terms of external trading, as of the closing on March 24, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by US $26 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at US $1200-1202 / ton. The closing price of European MTBE market decreased by US $18.25/t compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at US $1178.5-1179/t. The closing price of the US MTBE market decreased by US $17.97/ton compared with the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf FOB price closed at US $1298.73-1299.09/ton (365.84-365.94 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia ., FOB Singapore, USD 1200-1202 / ton ., USD 26 / ton

U.S.A ., FOB Bay ., 1298.73-1299.09 USD / ton .,- USD 17.97/t

Europe ., FOB ARA ., 1178.5-1179 USD / ton .,- 18.25 USD / ton

In terms of enterprises, Shida Shenghua MTBE was reduced by 50 yuan / ton for the second time, and the quotation was 7850 yuan / ton. The MTBE quotation of Lihua Yijin Petrochemical was reduced by 50 yuan / ton to 7850 yuan / ton for the second time.

Driven by the rise of crude oil, the market went up again and the transaction improved. Affected by transportation factors, there is no significant positive change in demand for the time being. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic MTBE market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range.

This week (3.14-18), the domestic butyl acetate market fell. Butyl acetate generally fell in the absence of supply and demand support and cost decline. According to the monitoring of business society, butyl acetate decreased by 1.43% this week. Butyl acetate is quoted at the domestic mainstream price of 10400-10000 tons at the weekend.

First, in terms of cost, the high levels of acetic acid and n-butanol fell. In particular, the decline of n-butanol is obvious, and the decline of cost is the main reason for the decline of butyl acetate price.

From the perspective of acetic acid, according to the monitoring of business society, East China acetic acid fell by 2.40% this week. This week, the domestic acetic acid market was mostly weak. Due to the sharp rise in the price of acetic acid in the first ten days, the overall acceptance of the downstream was not high. Therefore, the prices in Northwest and central China were mostly callback this week; Especially in East China and North China, affected by the epidemic, sales are blocked, but the overall inventory pressure of the factory is small, and the price is relatively resistant to decline; From the perspective of supply and demand, the acetic acid market is still in abundant supply, and the downstream demand maintains rigid demand. The falling price of acetic acid weakened the support of ethyl ester and butyl ester in the downstream.

In terms of upstream n-butanol, according to the data monitoring of business society, this week, the decline of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 8.23%. The demand for n-butanol in the downstream is reduced, and the inventory in the early stage is mainly digested, and the demand support is loose; In addition, the continuous decline of crude oil prices affected the mentality of n-butanol operators. The downstream decline started, the demand support continued to be insufficient, the supply pressure of n-butanol increased, and the market focus of n-butanol in Shandong continued to decline, with a weekly decline of nearly 1000 yuan. At present, the downstream demand is weak, and the trading atmosphere of n-butanol is general.

In terms of supply and demand, butyl acetate shows the characteristics of weak supply and demand. On the supply side, the operating rate of the manufacturer is normal, but the downstream demand has not improved significantly. The market trading atmosphere is poor, and most operators are bearish. Due to the epidemic, transportation is limited, and the rise of freight rates has further suppressed some demand. The substitution of other raw materials has occupied part of the demand for butyl, and the weak demand is the fundamental reason for the decline of butyl price.

Future forecast: in the short term, butyl acetate Market will remain weak. In the near future, we need to pay attention to whether the upstream acetic acid market can be reversed and the operation of downstream factories.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell, and the spot prices of various brands gradually decreased. As of March 18, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 16166.67 yuan / ton, up or down by + 2.54% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam fell this week. The price of raw material pure benzene decreased, the cost side support weakened, and caprolactam enterprises reduced the price accordingly. The overall demand on the floor is not strong, the bad factors are superimposed, and the caprolactam market weakens.

The upstream caprolactam price fell, and the cost side support of PA6 weakened. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant increased in a narrow range this week, with an overall stability of 70%. On the cost side, due to the easing of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the international crude oil price plummeted, the petrochemical industry chain products fell, and the cost side support of PA6 collapsed. The supply side of PA6 continues the previous abundant pattern, and the demand of downstream enterprises is flat. In addition to contract production and delivery, there are few large-scale goods preparation in the field. Downstream purchasing is weak. Due to the obstruction of logistics in many places caused by recent health events, PA6 trading has further shrunk. At present, PA6 is bad and the market has weakened.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fell this week, the trend of caprolactam was poor, and the cost support of PA6 weakened. The terminal demand maintains a weak pattern. Buyers resist the supply of high-priced goods, and buy up rather than down on the floor. At the same time, the logistics is blocked, affecting the delivery and delivery. It is expected that the PA6 market may remain weak and volatile in the short term.

This week, the lead market (3.11-3.18) “V” trend. The average price of the domestic market was 15125 yuan / ton last weekend and 15165 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.26%.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, there are five commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the non-ferrous sector in the 11th week of 2022 (3.14-3.18). The top three commodities are aluminum (2.83%), antimony (2.15%) and copper (1.45%). A total of 17 commodities fell month on month, and 2 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (- 25.70%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (- 5.64%) and neodymium oxide (- 3.45%). The average rise and fall this week was – 2.19%.

In the futures market, Lun lead made a continuous correction this week, with an overall price of US $2230-2320 / ton, down 1% in the week. Mainly due to the high US dollar, the general pressure on the metal market, the overall low operation of Lun lead and the overall low LME inventory. In terms of Shanghai lead, the overall bottom rebounded this week, with a shock range of 14910-15345 yuan / ton. At the beginning of the week, the metal market mentality was mainly downward due to the impact of domestic public health events. On Thursday, the State Council held a financial conference, which sent a signal to maintain stability, boosted market confidence, and the trend of Shanghai lead began to rebound.

The trend of domestic spot market this week is basically consistent with that of Shanghai lead, with an overall “V” trend. Basically, the downstream battery enterprises have basically resumed normal production. Although public health events have occurred in many places in China, there is no obvious impact on the supply of primary lead. The downstream battery enterprises are boosted by the recovery of the overseas market. At present, the production situation is OK, and the operating rate has picked up to a certain extent. However, the domestic market has gradually entered the traditional seasonal off-season, and the demand support is weak. The lead ingot is mainly purchased on demand, the lead ingot price has declined, the domestic market trading is better, some bargain hunting purchases, and the overall inventory has declined to a certain extent.

In the future, the business society believes that the decline in inventory has a certain support for the lead price, but the downstream gradually enters the off-season, and the support for the demand for lead ingots is limited. It is expected that the lead price will still maintain a volatile trend.

This week (from March 11 to March 18), 1# electrolytic manganese market price was mainly downward. The spot market price in East China was 33550 yuan / ton last weekend and 23850 yuan / ton this weekend, down 28.91%.

Spot price of electrolytic manganese (djmnp grade) from March 11 to March 18, 2022 (unit: ton)

Major producing areas., 18 day output., Transaction price on the 11th., Transaction price on the 18th., Weekly rise and fall

Ningxia., 0。，-。，-

Guangxi, Yunnan., 492。， 33900-34400。， 28000-28500。，- five thousand and nine hundred

Xinjiang (arrival at Tianjin Port)., -, –

Guizhou, Sichuan and Shaanxi., 267。， 33900-34400。， 28000-28500。，- five thousand and nine hundred

Hunan, Hubei., 78。， 33900-34400。， 28000-28500。，- five thousand and nine hundred

total., 837。，-。，-

Note: the transaction price is the ex factory price settled in cash by each electrolytic manganese production enterprise in each production area, and the daily output is the total output of electrolytic manganese products (including unqualified products) of all enterprises in production in each production area.

Note: the above data are from the national Manganese Industry Technical Committee.

Manganese ore: domestic manganese ore maintains a high level and strong operation. On March 18, the mainstream Australian block in Tianjin Port was quoted as 62 yuan / ton degree, the semi carbonic acid in South Africa was quoted as 42 yuan / ton degree, and the Gabon block was quoted as 60 yuan / ton degree; Qinzhou Port manganese ore mainstream Australian block reported 62 yuan / ton degree, South Africa Semi carbonic acid reported 42.5 yuan / ton degree, Gabon block reported 59.5 yuan / ton degree.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued to decline last week, and the market bearish sentiment was strong. The downstream is still to maintain on-demand procurement, but the inquiry price is low. With the sharp decline in the price within the week, the market anxiety has increased, and some manufacturers said that there is no spot shipment for the time being. The overall performance of the market lacks favorable support. With the impact of public health events in many places in China on transportation, the transportation of manganese products is blocked, which is bad for the market mentality again. The market expects that the loose supply brought by the resumption of production of most manufacturers in April may affect the market mentality again, but the exact commencement time has not been determined. There are many market news, the overall wait-and-see mood of the market is heavy, the mentality of supply and demand game is heavy, and the market bearish mood prevails. Without favorable support, it is afraid that the price will decline further.

Manganese and silicon: according to the price monitoring of business society, the mainstream quotation in Ningxia (specification: femn68si18) on March 18 was around 8500-8600 yuan / ton, and the average market price was 8550 yuan / ton, up 18.58% year-on-year.

The price of orthobenzene remained stable this week

According to the price trend chart of orthobenzene in business society, the price of orthobenzene was temporarily stable this week. As of March 18, the price of orthobenzene was 9000 yuan / ton, unchanged from 9000 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. The price of o-xylene fell, and the price of o-xylene fell.

The price of raw material mixed xylene fell

According to the trend chart of mixed xylene in business society, the price of mixed xylene fell this week. As of March 18, the price of mixed xylene was 7880 yuan / ton, down 9.94% from 8750 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. The price of mixed xylene fell, the cost of o-xylene fell, the rising power of o-xylene weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of phthalic anhydride in business society, the price of phthalic anhydride fell this week. As of March 18, the price of phthalic anhydride was 8925 yuan / ton, down 2.46% from 9150 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine eased, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the demand for o-xylene decreased, the rising power of o-xylene weakened, and the downward pressure increased.

Outlook

Analysts of o-xylene data of business agency believe that the conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to ease, the price of crude oil falls, the price of mixed xylene falls, the cost support of o-xylene weakens, the downstream demand weakens, the rising power of o-xylene weakens, and the downward pressure increases. Generally speaking, the pressure on the decline of the cost of orthobenzene is increasing, the demand power is weakening, and the price of orthobenzene is expected to be weak and stable in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated and rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1445.25/ton, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1473.00/ton, up 1.92%. The current price rose by 21.16% month on month, and the current price rose by 26.85% year-on-year.

This week, the external ethylene market generally showed an upward trend. The price of ethylene in Asia fell. As of the 16th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1296-1306 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1296-1306 / ton. European ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 16th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1744-1754 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1537-1545 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fell. As of the 16th, the price was 636-653 yuan / ton. This week, the market price of ethylene in the outer market fluctuated, with an overall rise, mainly affected by the upstream crude oil, rising first and then falling.

International: crude oil prices fell this week. As of the 16th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $95.04/barrel, down US $1.4 or 1.5%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $98.02/barrel, down US $1.89 or 1.9%. The data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories rose for the first time in three weeks, and the market was worried that high oil prices would suppress demand.

Recently, the market price of styrene has continued to decline. The market focus of raw material pure benzene has been lowered, and the cost support of styrene is poor. At present, the spot supply is relatively abundant, and the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the market transaction is weakened. The styrene market continued to decline.

The ethylene analyst of the chemical branch of the business agency believes that: at present, in terms of crude oil, the international crude oil price has fallen sharply and the cost support is insufficient. Therefore, the data analyst of the business agency predicts that the external price of ethylene will mainly fall next.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1363 yuan / ton on March 7 and 1740 yuan / ton on March 11. The price of ammonium sulfate increased by 27.63% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The price of ammonium sulfate rose continuously this week, with an increase of 300-500 yuan / ton, and the market rebounded strongly. As the price of urea at home and abroad continues to rise, it is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. Downstream enterprises purchase intensively, the atmosphere in the venue heats up rapidly, and the industry is mostly bullish. This week, the bidding price of coking grade ammonium sulfate enterprises increased significantly, and the internal grade ammonium sulfate also rose rapidly, but the downstream still has a mentality of resistance to the high price ammonium sulfate. As of March 11, the factory quotation of coking grade ammonium sulfate and mainstream ammonium sulfate in Shandong is about 1720 yuan / ton. The mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is about 1800 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the ex factory quotation in Shandong is 1700-1800 yuan / ton.

This week, due to the continuous rise of urea price and the strengthening of resistance in the downstream of urea, the rise of urea led to the sharp rise of ammonium sulfate Market. This week, the downstream compound fertilizer was put into operation at a high level. Due to the sharp rise of compound fertilizer raw materials, compound fertilizer enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude and do not offer for the time being. Under the pressure of cost, the short-term compound fertilizer market is mainly consolidated, waiting for the information guidance.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of the business agency believes that with the advent of spring ploughing and the peak season of domestic fertilizer use, dealers are actively taking goods. The bullish atmosphere in ammonium sulfate field is strong, and the demand side is waiting for continuous follow-up. The rise of urea is good for the market of ammonium sulfate. Ammonium sulfate is expected to continue the upward trend in the short term, but it is already at a high level and the rising space is limited.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of March 11, 2022, the average price of organosilicon DMC market quotation in mainstream areas was 35720 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on March 6, 2022 (the reference price of organosilicon DMC was 37300 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 1580 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.24%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the market trend of domestic silicone DMC was rising first and then falling. At the beginning of this week, on March 7, the domestic organosilicon DMC market rose broadly. A large organosilicon DMC factory in Shandong significantly increased the ex factory price of organosilicon DMC by 1500 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of organosilicon DMC in this factory was referred to as 39500 yuan / ton. Then on the 8th, the offers of other factories were stable, followed by small and medium-sized increases, and the phenomenon of market closure increased. On the 8th, The factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC refers to around 38000-39000 yuan / ton. On the 9th, the opening price of Shandong large factory fell sharply, and the price fell by thousands of yuan. The ex factory price of silicone DMC of the factory fell to 38500 yuan / ton. The quotation of other factories was multidimensional and stable, and the trading atmosphere on the floor was general. The downstream began to prepare goods carefully due to the continuous wide rise in the early stage, and the conduction obstruction on the floor appeared. On the 10th, Shandong large factory fell sharply again, The price of organosilicon DMC has dropped to 34000 yuan / ton, and there is a heavy wait-and-see mood in the downstream. On March 11, the offer price of Shandong large factory rebounded. The ex factory price of silicone DMC was 34600 yuan / ton, up 600 yuan / ton compared with the previous day. The quotations of other factories and suppliers were mostly stable or based on actual negotiations. At present, as of March 11, the trading atmosphere of silicone DMC was general, and the rise and fall of the situation brought constant tension to the market, and the wait-and-see mood was always strong.

In terms of upstream metal silicon, since March, the domestic metal silicon (441#) market has been rising as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average reference price of metal silicon was 23910 yuan / ton on March 10, up 4.46% compared with 22890 yuan / ton on March 1.

Silicone DMC market outlook forecast

This week, the domestic organosilicon DMC market fluctuated frequently, and the actual transaction on the floor was handled cautiously. The organosilicon DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic organosilicon DMC market is mainly adjusted and operated in a narrow range, and more attention should be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Cobalt prices rose slightly this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic cobalt price rose slightly this week, and the cobalt market rose. As of March 14, the average price of cobalt was 568500 yuan / ton, up 0.87% from 563600 yuan / ton on March 7 last week. On March 13, the cobalt commodity index was 203.06, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.01% from the highest point 238.91 in the cycle (2018-04-15), and up 190.75% from the lowest point 69.84 on July 5, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The impact of cobalt price on the historical high is limited, and the risk of cobalt price decline remains.

The international cobalt price fluctuated and rose this week

As can be seen from the trend chart of MB cobalt price, MB cobalt price rose sharply this week, the price of international standard cobalt rose sharply, the domestic cobalt market was good, the increase of international cobalt price increased, and the international cobalt market was good for the domestic cobalt market.

Sales of new energy vehicles fell

According to the data released by China Automobile Association, in February, China’s production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 368000 and 334000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 2.0 times and 1.8 times respectively. According to the data of the travel Federation, the wholesale sales of new energy passenger vehicles in China reached 317000 in February, with a year-on-year increase of 189% and a month on month decrease of 24%, which is less than that in previous years. In February, the retail sales volume of new energy passenger vehicles reached 272000, with a year-on-year increase of 181% and a month on month decrease of 23%. The month on month decrease was better than that in February. The sales volume of new energy vehicles decreased month on month, the demand for new energy vehicles decreased, the demand of cobalt market fell, and the rising power of cobalt Market weakened.

Market Overview

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst of business agency, believes that the sales of new energy vehicles fell slightly and the demand of cobalt market fell. This week, the international cobalt price rose sharply, the price difference between domestic and foreign cobalt prices still exists, the driving force of cobalt price rise is large, the domestic cobalt price is close to the historical high, the domestic cobalt price rise is too fast, and the risk of decline in the domestic cobalt market still exists. Generally speaking, the demand growth has a strong upward momentum in the cobalt market. The domestic cobalt price rises too fast, and the risk of decline in the cobalt market remains. It is expected that the cobalt price will rise slightly in the future.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol fell slightly this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol fell from 19000.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 18166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 4.39%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol fell this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 18000 yuan / ton, which fell by 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 18000 yuan / ton, which was 2000 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol weekend distribution price is 18500 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable.

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose first and then fell this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market first rose from 15166.67 yuan / ton on March 5 to 15466.67 yuan / ton on March 10, an increase of 1.98%, and then fell to 15266.67 yuan / ton on March 11, a decrease of 1.29%. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly and the cost support was general. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In mid March, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may decline slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market has a downward trend, the cost support is general, the downstream coating market is general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol in business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may fluctuate slightly and fall under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from February 28 to March 4, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10966 yuan / ton to 11200 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.13% during the week, and the price fell by 6.41% month on month and 7.01% year-on-year.

This week, domestic cyclohexanone stopped falling and rebounded, crude oil and pure benzene rose strongly, and the cost side formed a good support. From the perspective of supply and demand, in the early stage of downstream chemical fiber bargain hunting procurement, the pressure of cyclohexanone low-price shipment was significantly reduced. In addition, under the cost pressure, the bullish atmosphere was still good, cyclohexanone manufacturers actively explored the rise, and the market low price was reduced.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of March 4:

region ., Price

East China . 11600-11700 yuan / ton vehicle cash delivery

South China . 11900-12000 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region . 11300-11400 yuan / ton

Raw material pure benzene: the price of pure benzene rose. The core reason for the price rise is the sharp rise in crude oil caused by the situation in Ukraine, and the cost side promotes the price upward.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business agency:

Downstream caprolactam: the market price of caprolactam rose. Recently, the market is mainly strongly supported by the cost side. The price of crude oil has risen to more than $110, and the price of pure benzene has continued to rise.

Comparison chart of price trend of cyclohexanone and caprolactam (downstream products) in business society:

At present, crude oil is too strong, and its short-term favorable promotion to the price of pure benzene can still be maintained. At present, the supply and demand of cyclohexanone is weak, but if crude oil and pure benzene continue to rise, there is still room for rise under the pressure of cyclohexanone cost. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market will be mainly sorted out.

1、 Price summary on March 4:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 8000 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 8000 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 7850 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 7900 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 8200 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, geopolitical tensions triggered concerns about supply disruptions, and international oil prices continued to rise broadly. WTI is the highest level since September 2008 and Brent is the highest level since February 2013.

Today, the price of toluene in Sinopec East China increased by 300 yuan / ton, and the price of toluene in Jingbo Petrochemical increased by 400 yuan / ton.

The United States and the European Union are discussing relevant bills banning Russian oil and energy imports. Oil prices soared again and the risk of interruption of crude oil supply increased. Supported by the rise in cost, the willingness of toluene holders to support the price remains unchanged. Today, Sinopec’s Toluene price increased, and the market followed the rise.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 7, the average price of lithium iron phosphate, a domestic high-class power product, was 155000.00 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last week, the market price of lithium iron phosphate increased by 3.33%. The overall market negotiation focus was high, the inventory was low, the downstream just needed to purchase, the trading atmosphere was ok, and there was a continuous upward trend.

The price of lithium iron phosphate is relatively strong. Compared with the price rise trend in the same period last week, the manufacturers have tight supply, insufficient supply, high negotiation focus, and the overall market negotiation atmosphere is acceptable. The focus of the upstream market is high, and the price is high. The lithium iron phosphate market has certain support, and the overall market is relatively strong.

Upstream lithium carbonate: the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China is 456600 yuan / ton. The overall market continues to rise, and the price of lithium carbonate continues to rise. At present, the market output of lithium carbonate is still affected by the shortage of resources, the market gap still exists, and the price of lithium iron phosphate will remain stable and rise in the short term.

Chemical commodity index: on March 6, the chemical index was 1165 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.79% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 94.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Analysts of lithium iron phosphate in business society believe that lithium iron phosphate is expected to be strong in the short term and the price will rise. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of isopropanol increased slightly this week. The average price of domestic isopropanol was 7350 yuan / ton last Friday and 7400 yuan / ton this Friday. The price rose by 0.68% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

The domestic isopropanol market increased slightly this week. The overall market trading atmosphere is general and cautious. Factories and traders have strong upward intention. Manufacturers mainly support prices and downstream purchase on demand. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 7000-7300 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of isopropanol in Jiangsu is about 7500-7600 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7300 yuan / ton. Internationally, on March 1, isopropanol in the United States closed stable, while isopropanol in Europe closed mixed.

In terms of raw material acetone, the acetone market showed a trend of falling first and then hitting the bottom during the week. The international crude oil is at a high level, the international situation is still grim, there is still room, and the cost side has a great impact. With the warmer weather, the start-up of small enterprises in the downstream is increasing, the purchasing sentiment is expected to increase, and the trading atmosphere is improved. On the 4th, some domestic factories actively increased by 100-200 yuan / ton, boosting the market. The business society expects that there is still room for the acetone market next week.

In terms of raw material propylene, the price of propylene (Shandong) rose sharply this week, and the market quotation exceeded 9000 yuan / ton, of which the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 9000-9100 yuan / ton. Due to the further deterioration of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the Western camp’s sanctions against Russia have been upgraded, the market’s expectation of future energy supply interruption has been further strengthened, and the oil price has continued to rise strongly. Under the cost pressure, the price of propylene has increased significantly twice, and the downstream demand is general. Under the expectation of price increase, the purchase intention of the downstream is enhanced, but at the same time, some demand users are in wait-and-see mood.

3、 Future forecast

Isopropanol analyst of business society chemical branch believes that the domestic isopropanol market is generally traded. Factories and traders have strong upward intention. The price of acetone rebounded from the bottom, the price of propylene rose sharply, and the raw material supported isopropanol strongly. The price of isopropanol is expected to rise in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market generally rose and fell back in February, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of February 28, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offer was about 14100 yuan / ton, up or down – 3.42% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, Shandong styrene market fluctuated and fell this month. The cost side rose and fell, and the spot fell. Crude oil rose sharply at the end of the month, the price of pure benzene followed the rise, and the cost support of styrene recovered. The downstream resumption of work is slow, mainly digesting contracts, insufficient spot demand, the market spot trading is still depressed, the confrontation between supply and demand is game, and the market expectation is still volatile in the short term.

The price of acrylonitrile was sorted out and operated this month. In the early stage, the shipment of newly put into operation equipment impacted the market, and the operating rate of the industry was also on the high side. Although some enterprises had maintenance plans at the end of the month, there were many sources of goods in the field, the merchant inventory was high, and the supply side was bad on the spot market. In terms of downstream demand, textile enterprises resumed work slowly in February, and concentrated after the Lantern Festival to stop the decline. At the end of the month, the mentality of operators is too much, but the high construction of market inventory may cause considerable resistance to the recovery of acrylonitrile.

The domestic butadiene market continued to rise this month. During the month, two plant failures of Korean enterprises triggered a sharp rise in the domestic butadiene market price. At the same time, the external market and major domestic production enterprises continued to push up, and the price of butadiene rose again and again. Affected by the policy, some downstream industries started poorly, the demand recovery was less than expected, and the market transaction was not smooth. However, with the end of the Winter Olympics and the commencement of downstream construction, the butadiene market is expected to rise again. However, the rapid rise of the market led to cautious downstream procurement, and some high price offers still need to be followed up. Butadiene analysts of business society predict that the domestic butadiene market will be dominated by high-level consolidation in the short term.

In February, the overall upstream market of ABS was mixed, and the cost side support was general. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market was affected by the inventory pressure of enterprises and downstream throughout the month, and the rise of spot prices was blocked after the return of the Spring Festival. In addition, after the price reduction is full, the business is biased to resume the operation, and the demand of the terminal is increased. At the end of the month, the load of downstream enterprises resumed one after another, the trading volume was relatively large, and some offers were boosted and rose slightly.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS fluctuated and fell in February, and the three upstream material trends rose and fell respectively, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot prices are mainly affected by the high load and abundant supply of the industry. After the festival, the demand follow-up of terminal enterprises was slow, and the trading recovered at the end of the month, but the on-site supply is still large. It is expected that in the short term, the ABS spot market may be mainly sorted and operated.

On February 27, the crude benzene commodity index was 102.30, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.41% from the highest point of 131.84 in the cycle (January 28, 2013), and up 234.97% from the lowest point of 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now).

In February 2022, the crude benzene market rose at the beginning of the month and fluctuated in the middle of the month. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 5999 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 6533 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 8.9%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

July 2, 8100.,+400

February 14, 7950.,-150

February 18, 7750.,-200

February 24, 7900.,+150

On February 24, 2022, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan / ton, 7900 yuan / ton, and Qilu Petrochemical 7850 yuan / ton.

Other enterprises: Dongming Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, HSBC Petrochemical 7900 yuan / ton, Jincheng Petrochemical 7950 yuan / ton, Weilian chemical 8003 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical 7950 yuan / ton and Hongrun petrochemical 8450 yuan / ton.

Crude oil rose mainly this month. Positive: the prospect of crude oil demand is good and the geopolitical situation is tense; Bearish: positive signals from Iran’s nuclear negotiations. As of February 25, Brent rose $6.72 / barrel, or 7.37%; WTI rose $3.44/barrel, or 3.9%. On February 25, the price of international crude oil futures fell. Us WTI crude oil futures contract settlement price in April was US $91.59/barrel, down US $1.22 or 1.31%; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures contract in April was US $95.42/barrel, down US $1.15 or 1.20%.

During the Spring Festival, the strong rise of crude oil led to the positive follow-up of relevant energy and chemical products. The shipment of pure benzene from local refining enterprises in Shandong Province was good, and the price rose actively. After the festival, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene to 8100 yuan / ton, and the market negotiation was positive. However, with the weakening of crude oil support and the limited follow-up of downstream end products, the whole pure benzene industry chain weakened, the holders took profits and the price fell continuously. In late June, tensions between Russia and Ukraine escalated, crude oil rose significantly in the short term, the cost side drove pure benzene to rise, and the price rebounded rapidly. The hydrogenated benzene market closely follows the trend of pure benzene. In the first half of the month, the behavior is dominant, and the second half of the month enters the consolidation shock period. In terms of crude benzene, it followed the overall upward trend of the industrial chain at the beginning of the month. In the middle of the month, with the interweaving of bad and positive factors, the crude benzene price fluctuated and the price fluctuation was limited.

In terms of commencement: the recent commencement of coking enterprises is still low, the overall output of coke and by-products is low, and the supply is slightly tight.

In the future, the business agency believes that at present, pure benzene is obviously affected by the fluctuation of crude oil trend. In terms of demand, some downstream profit space is insufficient and the pursuit of growth is weak. Some factories stop to reduce the burden, the demand is limited, and the upward pressure of pure benzene increases, which may fall back; If crude oil continues to rise, or support pure benzene to rise. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the international crude oil market, the external market, the dynamics of pure benzene and downstream devices, and changes in demand on the price of pure benzene.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the price of bromine rose first and then fell in February. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 58666.6 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the average market price was 57333.33 yuan / ton, down 2.27% and up 67.26% year-on-year. On February 27, the bromine commodity index was 203.51, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.00% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 245.40% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At the beginning of the month, the domestic bromine price was slightly adjusted and operated. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is stable and small. At the beginning of the week, bromine enterprises have a small amount of spot goods, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, the downstream flame retardant and pharmaceutical intermediate industries started slowly after the Spring Festival, and the shipment of enterprises is general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is deadlocked.

In the second half of this month, the domestic bromine price was weak, the bromine price was stable and small, the bromine enterprises started at a low level, and the inventory was small. The downstream flame retardants and pharmaceutical intermediates industry started slowly after the Spring Festival, mostly purchased on demand, and the shipment of enterprises is general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is deadlocked.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose this month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 2150 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2253.33 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 4.81%, up 75.13% from the same period last year. Domestic refineries have no inventory pressure for the time being, the downstream sulfuric acid market is rising, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the superposition of port supply into the market is less, the port liquid sulfur price is supported, and the liquid sulfur price of regional refineries is rising sharply; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Business analysts believe that the bromine price consolidation operation, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry mostly purchase on demand, but the actual transaction is general. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price consolidation operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

In February, the domestic MIBK market rose in a narrow range. By the end of the month, the market reference offer in East China was around 13600-13800 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market mixed offer in East China was 13333 yuan / ton on February 1 and 13833 yuan / ton on February 28, an increase of 3.75% in the month. On February 7, the market offer was 12733 yuan / ton, with an overall amplitude of 8.64% in the month.

In terms of raw materials, the acetone market in East China rose first and then fell, and remained the same at the end of the month as at the beginning of the month. The domestic East China market offered 5600 yuan / ton on January 1, 5650 yuan / ton on February 28, 6050 yuan / ton on February 14, with an amplitude of 8.04% in the month. All major mainstream markets of acetone showed a trend of rising first and then falling. By the end of the month, the negotiation in East China was 5650 yuan / ton, that in Shandong and Yanshan surrounding areas was 5900 yuan / ton, and that in South China was 5850 yuan / ton.

During the month, Ningbo Zhenyang 15000 T / a MIBK plant was shut down, the overall operating rate of the industry decreased, the overall inventory pressure of the factory was not large, and the continuous downward market before the festival made the supply of goods in the hands of traders small, the spot circulation resources in the field were limited, the mentality of the holders was supported, and the quotation continued to rise.

The downstream rubber additives market is flat, but the market is up, but the transaction surface is not enough. The accelerator has recovered, and the antioxidant market has improved significantly. However, at present, the inventory of downstream tire enterprises is high, the operating rate of the industry has declined, and the demand side is dragged down.

From the perspective of business community, the market is still in a state of constant price support. The terminal will continue to warm up next month, especially the demand of antioxidant industry will increase. Although Ningbo Zhenyang device will restart next month, the supply side is still progressing, and the circulating spot resources are not sufficient. It is expected to show a state of price support at the beginning of next month.

Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in February. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 70516.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 71133.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 1.46%.

According to the current chart of business society, most copper spot prices are higher than futures prices. Near the end of the month, copper futures prices are higher than spot prices. The main contract is the expected price in two months, indicating that everyone is optimistic about the future market of copper prices.

According to LME inventory, there is little difference between the current copper inventory and the copper level of last year.

In terms of supply and demand: there were few maintenance plans for smelters in the first quarter, and the fear that the northern smelter would be affected by the Winter Olympics in the early stage did not materialize, allowing the smelter to maintain a high output. In January, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 63.42%, a month on month decrease of 16 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4 percentage points. In January, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 56.25%, a month on month decrease of 15.65 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.79 percentage points. In February, the supply was tight and the inventory was low. With the resumption of work after the festival, the demand increased. At the end of the month, the situation in Russia and Ukraine affected market sentiment and the operation of copper prices.

Based on the above situation, the tense relationship between Russia and Ukraine has led to market hedging. The pace of work resumption in the downstream after the domestic Festival is slow, and the demand for replenishment in the downstream is still poor. Domestic short-term demand is still weak, but as the weather gets warmer and warmer, demand recovers, superimposing low inventories. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 8266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 8433.33 yuan / ton, up 2.02%, the current price Rose 2.02% month on month, and the current price rose 27.30% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices rose in February. It can be seen from the above figure that the market of potassium carbonate has continued to rise since 2022, and the market has increased slightly this month, mainly because the supply of goods in the market is slightly tight after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is better, the procurement is more active, and the price of potassium carbonate has increased slightly. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate in February was about 8400-8500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in February was mainly upward. After the signing of the large contract for potassium chloride of US $590 / ton, it boosted market confidence. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has risen, and the volume has been increased one after another, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. With the advent of spring ploughing, agricultural demand has increased, and traders are actively taking goods. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium carbonate.

The domestic potash fertilizer market is still expected to rise in the near future. The supply of border trade goods is tight and the cost support is good. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8055 yuan / ton. Compared with February 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 45 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.62%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in early February, during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic n-propanol market was calm, and the downstream purchase basically ended before the festival. During the holiday, the market trading was quiet, and the n-propanol market remained stable., After the festival (the 7th), the domestic n-propanol market moved down slightly, and the price of n-propanol factories in Shandong adjusted down narrowly, with an adjustment range of around 100 yuan / ton, so the market operated weakly and stably. On the 9th, the market of n-propanol witnessed a steady recovery, and the downstream demand began to expand one after another, giving confidence to the industry. Some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong raised the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 7300-7500 yuan / ton.

In late February, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole moved downward again. After a small-scale replenishment in the downstream, the market demand became weak and the support given by the demand side was insufficient. On the 17th, some n-propanol dealers sold the goods at a profit and reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, individual suppliers adjusted prices according to their own inventory range, rising and falling each other, and the market fluctuated. At present, as of February 22, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7300-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on February 21, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1216-1226 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1186-1196 / ton, and the international crude oil futures price closed higher. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the opposition between Russia and the West on Ukraine, which exacerbated supply concerns. February 21, February 21 (Monday) is the “Washington birthday anniversary” in the United States. The US stock market is closed for one day. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures is reported as US $95.39/barrel, up US $1.85 or 1.97%. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is still cold, and the downstream demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will continue to adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the ex factory average price of propylene glycol was 15633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 967 yuan / ton, or 6.18%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the domestic propylene glycol market operated smoothly during the Spring Festival holiday in early February. After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic propylene glycol market ushered in a rising operation, and the on-site available spot was tight, supporting the firm quotation of the factory. From the 9th, the quotation of propylene glycol factory continued to rise. As of the 13th, the average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol rose to around 17100 yuan / ton, with an increase of 9.38% in the first week after the festival. Subsequently, the downstream demand gradually opened. With the support of demand, the propylene glycol market continued to rise. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol rose to around 17300-17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.37% in half a month.

In late February, the domestic propylene glycol market fell from a high level. After the domestic propylene glycol rose to a higher level, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream increased, the purchase rhythm slowed down, the transaction of new orders became weaker, and the propylene glycol market began to loosen and go down. On the 18th, the domestic propylene glycol market price fell back to around 16600-17300 yuan / ton, and the average price fell back to around 16900 yuan / ton. Then the market was temporarily consolidated and operated for a few days. On the 22nd, the inventory of some propylene glycol factories was under pressure, The ex factory price of propylene glycol was lowered again by around 100-300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in China was around 16400-16900 yuan / ton, and the average price was 16600 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.5% in the last ten days and an overall increase of 6.18% in February.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, as of February 21, the overall market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was mainly rising. On February 21, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11800-11900 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11966.67 yuan / ton on the 21st, an increase of 5.9% compared with February 1 (11300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of propylene glycol is still strong, and the performance is generally boosted by the transaction of new orders on the floor. Propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly stable, sorted and operated, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan decreased slightly this week. On February 18, the average market price in Henan was 7250.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.68% over the weekend and 0.51% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market wait-and-see sorting, during the week, the quotation of enterprises in Henan and Shandong was basically stable, and the prices of individual manufacturers decreased slightly. At present, the cost of cryolite and the supply of raw materials are basically stable. The start-up of enterprises in the north is low and the shipment is OK. The price of cryolite is mainly strong. The operators in the field wait and see the changes of the upstream and downstream market. As of February 18, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6700-8500 yuan / ton.

The price trend of upstream soda ash continued to be strong this week. As of February 18, the average market price was about 2462.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.35% during the week. This week, soda ash sorting went up, manufacturers actively shipped, soda ash inventory decreased, the market trading atmosphere improved, and the price increase mentality of enterprises was strong.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and fell. On February 18, the aluminum price was 22726.67 yuan / ton, down 0.91% during the week. After the Spring Festival, the aluminum price rose too fast in a short time, and the downstream undertaking was weak. In addition, during the Winter Olympic Games, the operation rate of downstream production resumption was lower than expected, the game between supply and demand, and the aluminum price fluctuated and sorted out.

Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is high and strong, the operating rate of cryolite enterprises is acceptable, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchases on demand, the mentality of on-site cargo holders is wait-and-see, and it is expected that the short-term cryolite market will be sorted out, with specific attention to the downstream demand.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell slightly this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell slightly this week. As of February 18, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12433.33 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from 12666.67 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend; Up 35.64% year on year.

The price of raw materials is weak and temporarily stable

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite was temporarily stable this week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are weak and stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride is weak and temporarily stable, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell sharply this week, down 1.20%. Aluminum prices fell, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers started to recover slowly, the demand for aluminum fluoride warmed up, the downstream market rose, the rising power of aluminum fluoride remained, and the downward pressure weakened.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid is stabilizing this week, the price of fluorite is temporarily stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride is stabilizing, the demand for aluminum fluoride is warming, the cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, and the demand is warming. In the future, the cost is temporarily stable, the supply is sufficient, the demand is low, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the upward momentum remains. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride tends to be stable.

In the first week after the festival, the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range and the transaction volume was poor. The downstream inventory is high, resulting in poor replenishment enthusiasm. The impact of the Winter Olympics and some maintenance on the downstream is greater than that on the upstream. After the factory prices of factories in the main production areas in the mainland rose sharply, the mainstream transaction was poor. Under the background of shipping pressure and the downward futures market, the domestic methanol market price opened a sharp correction.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from January 31 to February 11, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises increased from 2682 yuan / ton to 2745 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 2.33%, 13.43% month on month and 21.86% year-on-year.

As of the closing on February 11, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell violently. Ma2205 contract opened at 2821 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2825 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2705 yuan / ton. It closed at 2706 yuan / ton, down 88 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2205 contract position was 917700 hands, an increase of 31000 hands compared with the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of February 11:

Region, Price

Qinghai region No quotation

Shanxi region . 2400-2430 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region . 2550 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian Province RMB 2830-2850 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby

Lianghu area Ex factory reference 2750-2800 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui Province 2820-2850 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2550 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The prices of products in the methanol industry chain rose and fell, the coal price of methanol upstream products fell, the price of natural gas was stable, and the cost of methanol was generally supported; Among downstream products, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, Shandong ethylene glycol has the largest price increase.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on February 10, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $425.00-426.00/ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 123.25-123.75 cents / gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 368.00-368.50 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia . CFR Southeast Asia . 425.00-426.00 USD / ton . USD 0 / ton

Europe and America . US Gulf . 123.25-123.75 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 368.00-368.50 euros / ton . 0 euro / ton

Coal may support or weaken the production cost of methanol. In terms of fundamentals, the marginal increment of supply may be limited, and the demand side has little change. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices were sorted and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 58666.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 59000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.57%. On February 13, the bromine commodity index was 209.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.71% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 254.92% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is slightly adjusted and operated. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is stable and small. At the beginning of the week, bromine enterprises have a small amount of spot goods, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, the downstream flame retardant and pharmaceutical intermediate industries started slowly after the Spring Festival, and the shipment of enterprises is general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is deadlocked.

Raw materials: the price of sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2150 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2170 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.93%, 89.8% over the same period last year. Domestic refineries have no inventory pressure for the time being, the downstream sulfuric acid market is rising, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the superposition of port supply into the market is less, the port liquid sulfur price is supported, and the liquid sulfur price of regional refineries is rising sharply; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Business analysts believe that the bromine price consolidation operation, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry mostly purchase on demand, but the actual transaction is general. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price consolidation operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 16647.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 18400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10.53%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol increased this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 19000 yuan / ton, which increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17000 yuan / ton, which was 1858 yuan / ton higher than that at the weekend. Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol weekend distribution price of 19200 yuan / ton, compared with last weekend, the quotation increased by 1400 yuan / ton

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 15400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, up 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 15.80%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and late February may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose sharply this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 12066.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 13900.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 15.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.36% year-on-year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market rose sharply this week and showed a downward trend over the weekend. On February 13, the isooctanol commodity index was 102.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.67% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 190.78% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support has been strengthened and the downstream demand has improved

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 14000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which increased by 2200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 13700 yuan / ton, an increase of 1900 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 14000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, an increase of 1400 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7750.80 yuan / ton last weekend to 8270.60 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.71%, an increase of 17.15% year-on-year over the same period last year, and there was a downward trend at the weekend. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 11425.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 12950.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 13.35%, an increase of 28.86% over the same period last year, and there was a downward trend at the weekend. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In the middle and late February, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene fell slightly over the weekend, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was general. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the isooctanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly in mid and late February.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 11, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 700 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on February 1. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphorus ore was 690 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in February, after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic phosphorus ore market maintained a temporary and stable operation trend before the festival. The downstream mainly digested the early inventory, and the demand side showed general performance. In terms of supply, the on-site construction started gradually, the supply pressure was small, and the quotations of mining enterprises were mostly high and stable. As of February 11, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou is around 660-680 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphate ore market is stable, and the factory price of 30% phosphate ore is around 660-690 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck board is 660-680 yuan / ton. The reference delivery price of 25% raw ore in Mabian County of Sichuan is around 350 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of 30% phosphorus concentrate in Mabian county is around 620 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 660-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 30% 660-680 yuan / ton Car board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 660-690 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, after the Spring Festival, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose on February 10. The overall market trading situation is acceptable, there are many downstream inquiries, mainly just need replenishment, and the transaction of new orders is limited. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will mainly run at a high level in the short term. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 32375 yuan / ton on February 10, up 0.39% compared with 32250 yuan / ton on February 1.

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Product Name: organosilicon DMC

Latest price (February 10): 31420 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on February 10, the overall stability of domestic silicone DMC market was maintained. On the 10th, the factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 31420 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the previous working day. At present, the downstream demand for silicone DMC is still opening one after another, and the current trading atmosphere on the floor is relatively quiet.

Future forecast: after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market will gradually recover, and the downstream goods preparation is just needed. The silicone DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will be more stable, mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Today, Shandong styrene market fell slightly. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 9290.00 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from yesterday.

Today, Shandong styrene market is weak. The raw material pure benzene rose and fell, and the cost support weakened. The styrene market took profits at high prices, superimposed the short-term supply increment after the festival, and the downstream is still in the stage of returning to work one after another, with insufficient spot transactions. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market. The styrene market is sorted and falling in price within the day.

The price of styrene in the northeast region will be reduced to RMB 9300-9200 / ton, and the price in the northeast region will be reduced to RMB 9300-9200 / ton near the northeast region.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (February 7): 14333.33 yuan / ton

On February 7, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong rose sharply, up 2266.66 yuan / ton or 20.11% compared with the quotation on January 28 before the festival, and up 31.10% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream propylene rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream DOP market was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream rigid demand was dominated.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 14500 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of January 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.93% compared with the price on January 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market rose in January. In the first ten days, the price of raw urea rose, the cost support was gradually strengthened, some maintenance devices were restored one after another, the operating rate increased, the export market supported the market, and the price rose slightly. In the middle of the year, the price of raw material urea rose first and then fell. The operating rate of melamine was about 80%. The orders in the export market were OK. The downstream of domestic trade was prepared before the festival. Enterprises mainly implemented advance orders. In the latter ten days, the price of raw urea rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened slightly, the operating rate of melamine decreased, the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, the enterprise’s early orders were good, the supply of goods was tight, and the market operated strongly.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable on January 26, which was the same as that on January 24, up 3.61% compared with that on January 1.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that the current trading atmosphere of melamine market is acceptable, and the Spring Festival is approaching. It is expected that the melamine market may operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide rose steadily this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 20733.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 20850 yuan / ton. The price increased slightly within the month, with a range of 0.56%.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the market price of titanium dioxide in China rose steadily. At present, the market confidence of domestic titanium dioxide enterprises is good, and the export orders perform well. This month, domestic downstream manufacturers mainly hoard goods in an appropriate amount before the year. At present, the price of titanium ore is high, the price of other auxiliary materials also remains high, and the price of individual titanium dioxide enterprises increases slightly. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 20500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18500-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area increased this month. The titanium ore market is acceptable, the downstream market demand is acceptable, and the purchase is mainly on demand. Manufacturers send more early orders, small and medium-sized miners are slightly nervous about the spot, and the reluctance to sell is obvious. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1550 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2200-2280 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 645 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 708.33 yuan / ton. The price increased slightly within the month, with a range of 9.82%. The manufacturer’s inventory this month is general, and the downstream demand is good. The upstream sulfur market has gradually risen recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream formic acid Market stopped falling and rose, the downstream bromine market rose slightly, the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that the titanium dioxide market is stable and good at present. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the raw material titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid increased, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that in the short term, the high price of titanium dioxide will be dominated, and the actual transaction price will be dominated by single negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on January 21, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with 8340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.44% during the week, 1.68% compared with the beginning of the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market continued to rise this week. The enterprise price increased by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market rose. Recently, the central bank cut interest rates, coupled with the rebound of PVC futures driven by crude oil and coal, boosted the sharp rise of the spot market, reduced the supply of low-cost goods and shifted the focus upward. At the beginning of the week, the disk was strong, driving the PVC market to rise, and the current price rose with it, and the transaction atmosphere was good. At present, the pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival is good, most of them have completed the task, and the offer is firm. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the procurement volume has decreased, PVC has entered the routine accumulation stage, the supply and demand side has gradually weakened, PVC has insufficient action force, and enters the sorting stage at the weekend. By the end of the weekend, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises was mostly around 8300-8850 yuan / ton. Pvc5 electric stone was delivered at 8550-8600 yuan / ton in Tianjin. The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, and the market prices all over the country increased.

According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell in the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It rose slightly in the second half of January, with less rise and more fall in the cycle.

region workmanship 1 / 21 (yuan / ton) 1 / 17 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 8700-8900 8600-8700 + 100/+200 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8750 8450-8550 + 100/+200 Deliver

southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Deliver

For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.

International crude oil prices fell slightly on January 21. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.14/barrel, down US $0.41 or 0.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $87.89/barrel, down US $0.49 or 0.6%. Oil prices continued Thursday’s trend and fell slightly, mainly affected by the negative impact of the increase in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but tight supply expectations have not changed, limiting the decline in oil prices.

Ethylene, the overall market price of external ethylene rose. Ethylene prices in Asia fell. As of the 21st, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $921-931 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $936-946 / ton. European ethylene market was mixed. As of the 21st, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1573-1584 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1481-1490 / ton.

On January 21, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4400.00, a decrease of 4.69% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide was mainly subject to slight shock and decline. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was not large. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the Spring Festival is coming, the transportation capacity is limited, the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the demand is reduced, and the PVC fundamentals are gradually weak. It is expected to focus on narrow adjustment in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7625.75 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7638.25 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7700 yuan / ton.

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7562.50 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from 7567.50 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7500-7600 yuan / ton.

On January 23, the naphtha commodity index was 94.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.92% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.82% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week. The Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is not large.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 5930.20 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6050.20 yuan / ton on January 21, up 2.02% from last week. The price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week, with 6290 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6330 yuan / ton on January 21, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 5.8% from 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil continues to rise, the naphtha market cost is supported, the Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the logistics is about to have a holiday. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell slightly this week. On Monday (January 17), the price of sample enterprises of business society was 8740.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (January 21), the price of sample enterprises was 8660.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The price increased by 24.90% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of styrene rose first and then fell this week, with a small overall decline. On January 17, East China styrene closed near 8650-8750 yuan / ton, and on January 21, 8550-8650 yuan / ton, down near 100 yuan / ton. The above is the tank price in Zhangjiagang. On January 17, South China styrene closed at 8600-8650 yuan / ton. On January 21, 8600-8650 yuan / ton remained stable, and the delivery price of the above factories was stable.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil rose strongly this week. Pure benzene followed the strong rise of crude oil. As of Friday (January 21), the mainstream quotation was 7680.00 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton or 1.45% from 7570.00 yuan / ton on Monday (January 17). The price rise this week was mainly driven by crude oil. The market took the opportunity to speculate on the price of pure benzene. By the end of the week, after reaching a high level, some sources of goods were sold at a profit. The market selling increased and the price fell rapidly, but the overall price still rose. Give strong support to styrene.

In terms of operating rate, the weekly average operating rate of domestic styrene industry this week was 82.51%, the same as last week. In terms of port inventory, East China port inventory entered the rhythm of accumulation this week, and styrene processing profit suffered a small loss.

Downstream, styrene rose slightly this week. In the PS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of PS in East China was 10100.00 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from 10066.67 yuan / ton on Monday. The rise of crude oil led to the strength of pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS followed the rise. Small and medium-sized downstream factories have holidays one after another. At present, most of them are in demand for goods before the Spring Festival, resulting in tight supply of some goods.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 10250.00 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 10125.00 yuan / ton on Monday. The rise of crude oil led to the strengthening of pure benzene and styrene, and the EPS price followed the rise. However, the terminals have stopped one after another, the demand has weakened significantly, and the high price conflict is obvious. For the time being, there is no intention to replenish the goods in batches before the festival, and the overall delivery is cold.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 14600.00 yuan / ton, up 0.34% from 14550.00 yuan / ton on Monday. Near the Spring Festival, the terminal has just needed to prepare goods. In addition, the current price has been at a low level in the near future. The market has the psychology of bottom reading and entering the market. The market turnover is large and the price is up.

3、 Later outlook

Crude oil is strong, but the subsequent deposit correction may be possible. Pure benzene has been corrected at present, and the bottom of styrene cost side support deposit has been reduced. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the mood of goods preparation in downstream factories has weakened, and the probability of styrene is weak. Generally speaking, the styrene market is expected to be weak next week, and the price is expected to be around 8400-8600 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose slightly this week, and the recent rare earth market rose slightly. Recently, the price trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium series was temporarily stable, and the price of heavy rare earth market rose. On January 17, the rare earth index was 852 points, the same as yesterday, down 14.80% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it increased by 214.39%. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the market price of light rare earth in China has increased slightly, and the price of praseodymium neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market is mainly stable. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic metal neodymium and neodymium oxide is rising, and the price trend of praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide is temporarily stable. On the whole, the price increase of domestic light rare earth market is slowing down. As of the 17th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 1.02 million yuan / ton, up 2.0% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.24 million yuan / ton, up 0.81% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, and the trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 900000 yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 1.095 million yuan / ton, which is flat this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 1.17 million yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market rises slightly.

The domestic rare earth market price rose slightly. On the one hand, the policy was favorable and the supply of electric coal was tight in winter. In addition, in the early stage, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the motor energy efficiency improvement plan to encourage the development of energy-saving rare earth motors to replace traditional industrial motors and respond to the call for energy conservation and emission reduction. Affected by the news, the price trend rose. On the other hand, there is little change in the supply and demand structure, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances continues to increase, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side has increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, the rapid development of new energy industry has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express train”. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal. The demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is at a high level. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. However, the recent downstream procurement is more cautious, and the price increase of light rare earth market is limited.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is in the traditional peak demand season. Superimposed on the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shippers have a low willingness to ship, have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the on-site price remains high. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high in November. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively, and the market penetration rate was 19.1%. Driven by both market and policy, the demand market for vehicle gauge semiconductors broke out in an all-round way. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is high, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market is stable. Driven by the demand for neodymium, iron and boron, the domestic heavy rare earth market price remained high, and the price rose slightly this week.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China rose slightly. As of the weekend, the price of dysprosium oxide was 3 million yuan / ton, an increase of 1.01% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.98 million yuan / ton, up 1.02% this week; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.8 million yuan / ton, which rose by 1.33% this week. The price of terbium in China rose, the price of terbium oxide in China was 13 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 15.25 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is rising, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market is acceptable, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the price of domestic heavy rare earth market higher. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar is disturbed. In the later stage, the war in Myanmar starts again, and the supply disturbance is further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is active, the stock mood is high, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend is rising.

In addition, with the support of national policies, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in early July that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and the national level legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products has increased, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. The recent on-site transaction market is OK. However, with the advent of the festival, some downstream began to have holidays, and the purchasing sentiment has dropped, Chen Ling, an analyst at business society, expects that the price trend of rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4583.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4566.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 16.66 yuan / ton, down 0.36%, up 38.38% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On January 16, the calcium carbide commodity index was 119.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.62% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 115.62% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is good, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 4550 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4600 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend is 4550 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1720 yuan / ton, which has increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. The price of PVC this week fell from 8340.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8280.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, an increase of 18.92% over the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream products lack the power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In late January, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.