Trend analysis

According to the monitoring data of business society, the copper price first rose and then fell in February. At the beginning of the month, the copper price was 70516.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the copper price rose slightly to 71133.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 0.87% and a year-on-year increase of 1.46%.

According to the current chart of business society, most copper spot prices are higher than futures prices. Near the end of the month, copper futures prices are higher than spot prices. The main contract is the expected price in two months, indicating that everyone is optimistic about the future market of copper prices.

According to LME inventory, there is little difference between the current copper inventory and the copper level of last year.

In terms of supply and demand: there were few maintenance plans for smelters in the first quarter, and the fear that the northern smelter would be affected by the Winter Olympics in the early stage did not materialize, allowing the smelter to maintain a high output. In January, the operating rate of wire and cable enterprises was 63.42%, a month on month decrease of 16 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 11.4 percentage points. In January, the operating rate of refined copper rod enterprises was 56.25%, a month on month decrease of 15.65 percentage points and a year-on-year decrease of 10.79 percentage points. In February, the supply was tight and the inventory was low. With the resumption of work after the festival, the demand increased. At the end of the month, the situation in Russia and Ukraine affected market sentiment and the operation of copper prices.

Based on the above situation, the tense relationship between Russia and Ukraine has led to market hedging. The pace of work resumption in the downstream after the domestic Festival is slow, and the demand for replenishment in the downstream is still poor. Domestic short-term demand is still weak, but as the weather gets warmer and warmer, demand recovers, superimposing low inventories. Copper prices are expected to fluctuate at a high level.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 8266.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 8433.33 yuan / ton, up 2.02%, the current price Rose 2.02% month on month, and the current price rose 27.30% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

Potassium carbonate prices rose in February. It can be seen from the above figure that the market of potassium carbonate has continued to rise since 2022, and the market has increased slightly this month, mainly because the supply of goods in the market is slightly tight after the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is better, the procurement is more active, and the price of potassium carbonate has increased slightly. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream factory quotation range of domestic industrial grade potassium carbonate in February was about 8400-8500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

The overall trend of potassium chloride Market in February was mainly upward. After the signing of the large contract for potassium chloride of US $590 / ton, it boosted market confidence. The price of potassium chloride in Salt Lake and zangge has risen, and the volume has been increased one after another, but the market supply is still limited and the supply is relatively tight. With the advent of spring ploughing, agricultural demand has increased, and traders are actively taking goods. The high price of potassium chloride can give strong cost support to potassium carbonate.

The domestic potash fertilizer market is still expected to rise in the near future. The supply of border trade goods is tight and the cost support is good. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major manufacturers of potassium nitrate all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8055 yuan / ton. Compared with February 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8100 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 45 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.62%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in early February, during the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic n-propanol market was calm, and the downstream purchase basically ended before the festival. During the holiday, the market trading was quiet, and the n-propanol market remained stable., After the festival (the 7th), the domestic n-propanol market moved down slightly, and the price of n-propanol factories in Shandong adjusted down narrowly, with an adjustment range of around 100 yuan / ton, so the market operated weakly and stably. On the 9th, the market of n-propanol witnessed a steady recovery, and the downstream demand began to expand one after another, giving confidence to the industry. Some suppliers of n-propanol in Shandong raised the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong was around 7300-7500 yuan / ton.

In late February, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole moved downward again. After a small-scale replenishment in the downstream, the market demand became weak and the support given by the demand side was insufficient. On the 17th, some n-propanol dealers sold the goods at a profit and reduced the ex factory price of n-propanol by about 100-200 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, individual suppliers adjusted prices according to their own inventory range, rising and falling each other, and the market fluctuated. At present, as of February 22, the ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7300-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Nanjing is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on February 21, the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1216-1226 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1186-1196 / ton, and the international crude oil futures price closed higher. The rise in oil prices was mainly due to the opposition between Russia and the West on Ukraine, which exacerbated supply concerns. February 21, February 21 (Monday) is the “Washington birthday anniversary” in the United States. The US stock market is closed for one day. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures is reported as US $95.39/barrel, up US $1.85 or 1.97%. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later stage.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is still cold, and the downstream demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will continue to adjust and operate in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes of supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, the ex factory price of domestic industrial grade propylene glycol was 16600 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the ex factory average price of propylene glycol was 15633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 967 yuan / ton, or 6.18%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that the domestic propylene glycol market operated smoothly during the Spring Festival holiday in early February. After the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic propylene glycol market ushered in a rising operation, and the on-site available spot was tight, supporting the firm quotation of the factory. From the 9th, the quotation of propylene glycol factory continued to rise. As of the 13th, the average ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol rose to around 17100 yuan / ton, with an increase of 9.38% in the first week after the festival. Subsequently, the downstream demand gradually opened. With the support of demand, the propylene glycol market continued to rise. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of domestic propylene glycol rose to around 17300-17700 yuan / ton, an increase of 12.37% in half a month.

In late February, the domestic propylene glycol market fell from a high level. After the domestic propylene glycol rose to a higher level, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream increased, the purchase rhythm slowed down, the transaction of new orders became weaker, and the propylene glycol market began to loosen and go down. On the 18th, the domestic propylene glycol market price fell back to around 16600-17300 yuan / ton, and the average price fell back to around 16900 yuan / ton. Then the market was temporarily consolidated and operated for a few days. On the 22nd, the inventory of some propylene glycol factories was under pressure, The ex factory price of propylene glycol was lowered again by around 100-300 yuan / ton. The ex factory price of propylene glycol in China was around 16400-16900 yuan / ton, and the average price was 16600 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 5.5% in the last ten days and an overall increase of 6.18% in February.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, as of February 21, the overall market price of propylene oxide in Shandong was mainly rising. On February 21, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11800-11900 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11966.67 yuan / ton on the 21st, an increase of 5.9% compared with February 1 (11300 yuan / ton).

Future trend analysis

At present, the wait-and-see atmosphere in the downstream of propylene glycol is still strong, and the performance is generally boosted by the transaction of new orders on the floor. Propylene glycol analysts of business society believe that in the short term, the domestic propylene glycol market is mainly stable, sorted and operated, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price trend of cryolite in Henan decreased slightly this week. On February 18, the average market price in Henan was 7250.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.68% over the weekend and 0.51% month on month.

quotations analysis

Domestic cryolite market wait-and-see sorting, during the week, the quotation of enterprises in Henan and Shandong was basically stable, and the prices of individual manufacturers decreased slightly. At present, the cost of cryolite and the supply of raw materials are basically stable. The start-up of enterprises in the north is low and the shipment is OK. The price of cryolite is mainly strong. The operators in the field wait and see the changes of the upstream and downstream market. As of February 18, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6700-8500 yuan / ton.

The price trend of upstream soda ash continued to be strong this week. As of February 18, the average market price was about 2462.5 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.35% during the week. This week, soda ash sorting went up, manufacturers actively shipped, soda ash inventory decreased, the market trading atmosphere improved, and the price increase mentality of enterprises was strong.

Downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated and fell. On February 18, the aluminum price was 22726.67 yuan / ton, down 0.91% during the week. After the Spring Festival, the aluminum price rose too fast in a short time, and the downstream undertaking was weak. In addition, during the Winter Olympic Games, the operation rate of downstream production resumption was lower than expected, the game between supply and demand, and the aluminum price fluctuated and sorted out.

Future forecast

The domestic cryolite market is high and strong, the operating rate of cryolite enterprises is acceptable, there is no pressure on inventory, the downstream purchases on demand, the mentality of on-site cargo holders is wait-and-see, and it is expected that the short-term cryolite market will be sorted out, with specific attention to the downstream demand.

Aluminum fluoride prices fell slightly this week

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride fell slightly this week. As of February 18, the average price of domestic aluminum fluoride was 12433.33 yuan / ton, down 1.84% from 12666.67 yuan / ton on February 11 last weekend; Up 35.64% year on year.

The price of raw materials is weak and temporarily stable

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of fluorite was temporarily stable this week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable. The prices of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid are weak and stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride is weak and temporarily stable, and the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened.

The price of electrolytic aluminum fluctuated and fell

According to the monitoring of business society, the price of electrolytic aluminum fell sharply this week, down 1.20%. Aluminum prices fell, electrolytic aluminum manufacturers started to recover slowly, the demand for aluminum fluoride warmed up, the downstream market rose, the rising power of aluminum fluoride remained, and the downward pressure weakened.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid is stabilizing this week, the price of fluorite is temporarily stable, the cost of aluminum fluoride is stabilizing, the demand for aluminum fluoride is warming, the cost of aluminum fluoride is temporarily stable, and the demand is warming. In the future, the cost is temporarily stable, the supply is sufficient, the demand is low, the downward pressure of aluminum fluoride is weakened, and the upward momentum remains. In the future, the price of aluminum fluoride tends to be stable.

In the first week after the festival, the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range and the transaction volume was poor. The downstream inventory is high, resulting in poor replenishment enthusiasm. The impact of the Winter Olympics and some maintenance on the downstream is greater than that on the upstream. After the factory prices of factories in the main production areas in the mainland rose sharply, the mainstream transaction was poor. Under the background of shipping pressure and the downward futures market, the domestic methanol market price opened a sharp correction.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from January 31 to February 11, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises increased from 2682 yuan / ton to 2745 yuan / ton. During the cycle, the price increased by 2.33%, 13.43% month on month and 21.86% year-on-year.

As of the closing on February 11, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fell violently. Ma2205 contract opened at 2821 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2825 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2705 yuan / ton. It closed at 2706 yuan / ton, down 88 yuan / ton compared with the closing of the previous trading day. As of the closing, ma2205 contract position was 917700 hands, an increase of 31000 hands compared with the previous trading day.

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of February 11:

Region, Price

Qinghai region No quotation

Shanxi region . 2400-2430 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region . 2550 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian Province RMB 2830-2850 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby

Lianghu area Ex factory reference 2750-2800 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui Province 2820-2850 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan Province 2550 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

The prices of products in the methanol industry chain rose and fell, the coal price of methanol upstream products fell, the price of natural gas was stable, and the cost of methanol was generally supported; Among downstream products, the price of formaldehyde in Shandong increased the most; Among related products, Shandong ethylene glycol has the largest price increase.

In terms of external market, as of the closing on February 10, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was US $425.00-426.00/ton. US Gulf methanol market closed at 123.25-123.75 cents / gallon; FOB Rotterdam methanol market closed at 368.00-368.50 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia . CFR Southeast Asia . 425.00-426.00 USD / ton . USD 0 / ton

Europe and America . US Gulf . 123.25-123.75 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 368.00-368.50 euros / ton . 0 euro / ton

Coal may support or weaken the production cost of methanol. In terms of fundamentals, the marginal increment of supply may be limited, and the demand side has little change. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices were sorted and operated this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 58666.67 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 59000 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.57%. On February 13, the bromine commodity index was 209.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 14.71% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 254.92% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is slightly adjusted and operated. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is stable and small. At the beginning of the week, bromine enterprises have a small amount of spot goods, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, the downstream flame retardant and pharmaceutical intermediate industries started slowly after the Spring Festival, and the shipment of enterprises is general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is deadlocked.

Raw materials: the price of sulfur rose this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was about 2150 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend was 2170 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.93%, 89.8% over the same period last year. Domestic refineries have no inventory pressure for the time being, the downstream sulfuric acid market is rising, the demand for liquid sulfur is increasing, the superposition of port supply into the market is less, the port liquid sulfur price is supported, and the liquid sulfur price of regional refineries is rising sharply; In terms of downstream phosphate fertilizer, the demand for sulfur is acceptable, the refinery shipment is smooth, and the price of sulfur fixation increases slightly.

Business analysts believe that the bromine price consolidation operation, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry mostly purchase on demand, but the actual transaction is general. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price consolidation operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply this week. The average price of domestic mainstream market price of neopentyl glycol rose from 16647.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 18400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 10.53%.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream manufacturers of neopentyl glycol increased this week: the distribution price of Shanghai Qihua Wanhua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 19000 yuan / ton, which increased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The distribution price of Shandong Zhiying Jihua neopentyl glycol at the weekend was 17000 yuan / ton, which was 1858 yuan / ton higher than that at the weekend. Jinan aochen Wanhua neopentyl glycol weekend distribution price of 19200 yuan / ton, compared with last weekend, the quotation increased by 1400 yuan / ton

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market rose from 15400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17833.33 yuan / ton this weekend, up 2433.33 yuan / ton, or 15.80%. The market price of upstream raw materials rose sharply and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of neopentyl glycol in the middle and late February may rise slightly. The upstream isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream coating market was general, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was weak. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business society believe that the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose sharply this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 12066.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 13900.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 15.19%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 26.36% year-on-year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market rose sharply this week and showed a downward trend over the weekend. On February 13, the isooctanol commodity index was 102.21, unchanged from yesterday, down 25.67% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 190.78% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support has been strengthened and the downstream demand has improved

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 14000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which increased by 2200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 13700 yuan / ton, an increase of 1900 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 14000 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, an increase of 1400 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7750.80 yuan / ton last weekend to 8270.60 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.71%, an increase of 17.15% year-on-year over the same period last year, and there was a downward trend at the weekend. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. The DOP price rose from 11425.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 12950.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 13.35%, an increase of 28.86% over the same period last year, and there was a downward trend at the weekend. Downstream DOP prices rose slightly, and downstream customers were more enthusiastic about purchasing isooctanol.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In the middle and late February, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly, mainly falling. The upstream propylene fell slightly over the weekend, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was general. The isooctanol analyst of business society believes that the isooctanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly in mid and late February.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 11, 2022, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 700 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as that on February 1. Compared with January 1 (the ex factory price of phosphorus ore was 690 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.45%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in February, after the end of the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic phosphorus ore market maintained a temporary and stable operation trend before the festival. The downstream mainly digested the early inventory, and the demand side showed general performance. In terms of supply, the on-site construction started gradually, the supply pressure was small, and the quotations of mining enterprises were mostly high and stable. As of February 11, the price of 30% grade phosphate rock freight plant in Guizhou is around 660-680 yuan / ton, and the price of 28% grade phosphate rock freight plant is around 580-620 yuan / ton. In Guangxi, the phosphate ore market is stable, and the factory price of 30% phosphate ore is around 660-690 yuan / ton. In Hubei, the phosphate ore market is in high order, and the quotation of 30% ammonium phosphate ore truck board is 660-680 yuan / ton. The reference delivery price of 25% raw ore in Mabian County of Sichuan is around 350 yuan / ton, and the delivery price of 30% phosphorus concentrate in Mabian county is around 620 yuan / ton.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 660-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 30% 660-680 yuan / ton Car board price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 660-690 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 580-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, after the Spring Festival, the domestic yellow phosphorus market price rose on February 10. The overall market trading situation is acceptable, there are many downstream inquiries, mainly just need replenishment, and the transaction of new orders is limited. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will mainly run at a high level in the short term. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 32375 yuan / ton on February 10, up 0.39% compared with 32250 yuan / ton on February 1.

Prediction and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, near the Spring Festival, the operating rate of domestic phosphorus ore mines is low, and the supply of phosphorus ore is still tight. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that on the eve of the Spring Festival, the domestic phosphorus ore market will be consolidated at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

Product Name: organosilicon DMC

Latest price (February 10): 31420 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the data monitoring chart of business society, on February 10, the overall stability of domestic silicone DMC market was maintained. On the 10th, the factory quotation of domestic silicone DMC was around 31000-31500 yuan / ton, and the average price was 31420 yuan / ton, which was basically the same as the previous working day. At present, the downstream demand for silicone DMC is still opening one after another, and the current trading atmosphere on the floor is relatively quiet.

Future forecast: after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic silicone DMC market will gradually recover, and the downstream goods preparation is just needed. The silicone DMC data division of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic silicone DMC market will be more stable, mainly adjusted in a narrow range, and more attention needs to be paid to the trend changes of supply and demand.

Today, Shandong styrene market fell slightly. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 9290.00 yuan / ton, down 0.32% from yesterday.

Today, Shandong styrene market is weak. The raw material pure benzene rose and fell, and the cost support weakened. The styrene market took profits at high prices, superimposed the short-term supply increment after the festival, and the downstream is still in the stage of returning to work one after another, with insufficient spot transactions. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market. The styrene market is sorted and falling in price within the day.

The price of styrene in the northeast region will be reduced to RMB 9300-9200 / ton, and the price in the northeast region will be reduced to RMB 9300-9200 / ton near the northeast region.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (February 7): 14333.33 yuan / ton

On February 7, the ex factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong rose sharply, up 2266.66 yuan / ton or 20.11% compared with the quotation on January 28 before the festival, and up 31.10% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream propylene rose sharply, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream DOP market was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream rigid demand was dominated.

Recently, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong may rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 14500 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring sample data of business society, as of January 26, the average price of melamine enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.93% compared with the price on January 1, and a year-on-year decrease of 48.69% in a three-month cycle.

The melamine market rose in January. In the first ten days, the price of raw urea rose, the cost support was gradually strengthened, some maintenance devices were restored one after another, the operating rate increased, the export market supported the market, and the price rose slightly. In the middle of the year, the price of raw material urea rose first and then fell. The operating rate of melamine was about 80%. The orders in the export market were OK. The downstream of domestic trade was prepared before the festival. Enterprises mainly implemented advance orders. In the latter ten days, the price of raw urea rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened slightly, the operating rate of melamine decreased, the downstream goods were prepared before the festival, the enterprise’s early orders were good, the supply of goods was tight, and the market operated strongly.

For upstream urea, the comprehensive price of domestic urea was temporarily stable on January 26, which was the same as that on January 24, up 3.61% compared with that on January 1.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that the current trading atmosphere of melamine market is acceptable, and the Spring Festival is approaching. It is expected that the melamine market may operate at a high level in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of titanium dioxide rose steadily this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 20733.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 20850 yuan / ton. The price increased slightly within the month, with a range of 0.56%.

2、 Market analysis

In January, the market price of titanium dioxide in China rose steadily. At present, the market confidence of domestic titanium dioxide enterprises is good, and the export orders perform well. This month, domestic downstream manufacturers mainly hoard goods in an appropriate amount before the year. At present, the price of titanium ore is high, the price of other auxiliary materials also remains high, and the price of individual titanium dioxide enterprises increases slightly. Up to now, the factory quotation including tax of domestic rutile titanium dioxide is 20500-21600 yuan / ton; The ex factory quotation of anatase titanium dioxide including tax is between 18500-19500 yuan / ton.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the price of titanium concentrate in Panxi area increased this month. The titanium ore market is acceptable, the downstream market demand is acceptable, and the purchase is mainly on demand. Manufacturers send more early orders, small and medium-sized miners are slightly nervous about the spot, and the reluctance to sell is obvious. Up to now, the tax free quotation of 38 grade titanium ore is about 1530-1550 yuan / ton, that of 46 grade 10 titanium ore is about 2200-2280 yuan / ton, and that of 47 grade 20 ore is about 2500-2550 yuan / ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate will continue to be high and firm, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated.

In terms of sulfuric acid, according to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the month, the average price of domestic titanium dioxide was 645 yuan / ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 708.33 yuan / ton. The price increased slightly within the month, with a range of 9.82%. The manufacturer’s inventory this month is general, and the downstream demand is good. The upstream sulfur market has gradually risen recently, and the cost support is good. The downstream formic acid Market stopped falling and rose, the downstream bromine market rose slightly, the downstream customers had good enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. Sulfuric acid analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market, the market price of sulfuric acid may rise slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Titanium dioxide analysts of business society believe that the titanium dioxide market is stable and good at present. Internationally, the demand for foreign trade is acceptable and there is no pressure in the short term. On the whole, the raw material titanium concentrate increased, the price of sulfuric acid increased, and the cost support was strong. It is expected that in the short term, the high price of titanium dioxide will be dominated, and the actual transaction price will be dominated by single negotiation.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency (the average ex factory price of carbide SG5), on January 21, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream was 8460 yuan / ton, up 120 yuan / ton compared with 8340 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 1.44% during the week, 1.68% compared with the beginning of the month and 19.15% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The PVC market continued to rise this week. The enterprise price increased by about 100-200 yuan / ton, and the market rose. Recently, the central bank cut interest rates, coupled with the rebound of PVC futures driven by crude oil and coal, boosted the sharp rise of the spot market, reduced the supply of low-cost goods and shifted the focus upward. At the beginning of the week, the disk was strong, driving the PVC market to rise, and the current price rose with it, and the transaction atmosphere was good. At present, the pre-sale of PVC enterprises before the festival is good, most of them have completed the task, and the offer is firm. With the Spring Festival approaching, downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the procurement volume has decreased, PVC has entered the routine accumulation stage, the supply and demand side has gradually weakened, PVC has insufficient action force, and enters the sorting stage at the weekend. By the end of the weekend, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone enterprises was mostly around 8300-8850 yuan / ton. Pvc5 electric stone was delivered at 8550-8600 yuan / ton in Tianjin. The mainstream price of PVC ordinary electric stone in Guangzhou was 8650-8800 yuan / ton, and the market prices all over the country increased.

According to the weekly rise and fall from November 1, 2021 to January 23, 2022, it can be seen that the domestic PVC mainly fell in the cycle, with the largest decline of 17.43% in the week of October 25. Since November, the price fluctuated little, with the range of less than 3%. It rose slightly in the second half of January, with less rise and more fall in the cycle.

region workmanship 1 / 21 (yuan / ton) 1 / 17 (yuan / ton) Rise and fall remarks

East China Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Ex warehouse

south China Calcium carbide method 8700-8900 8600-8700 + 100/+200 Ex warehouse

North China Calcium carbide method 8550-8750 8450-8550 + 100/+200 Deliver

southwest Calcium carbide method 8600-8850 8450-8650 + 150/+200 Deliver

For the external price, Formosa Plastics announced the PVC quotation in February, which was reduced by 70-100 US dollars / ton, FOB Taiwan was reduced by 70 US dollars / ton, CIF China was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, CIF India was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton, and CIF Southeast Asia was reduced by 100 US dollars / ton.

International crude oil prices fell slightly on January 21. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $85.14/barrel, down US $0.41 or 0.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $87.89/barrel, down US $0.49 or 0.6%. Oil prices continued Thursday’s trend and fell slightly, mainly affected by the negative impact of the increase in U.S. crude oil and refined oil inventories, but tight supply expectations have not changed, limiting the decline in oil prices.

Ethylene, the overall market price of external ethylene rose. Ethylene prices in Asia fell. As of the 21st, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $921-931 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $936-946 / ton. European ethylene market was mixed. As of the 21st, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1573-1584 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1481-1490 / ton.

On January 21, the reference price of calcium carbide was 4400.00, a decrease of 4.69% compared with January 1 (4616.67). In late January, the market of calcium carbide was mainly subject to slight shock and decline. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost support of calcium carbide was good, but the increase was not large. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of business society believe that the Spring Festival is coming, the transportation capacity is limited, the downstream enterprises have successively entered the holiday mode, the demand is reduced, and the PVC fundamentals are gradually weak. It is expected to focus on narrow adjustment in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7625.75 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7638.25 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7600-7700 yuan / ton.

As of January 23, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7562.50 yuan / ton, up 0.07% from 7567.50 yuan / ton on January 17. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7500-7600 yuan / ton.

On January 23, the naphtha commodity index was 94.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 8.92% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 122.82% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell slightly this week. The Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the inventory pressure of the refinery is not large.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the oil price reached a nearly seven-year high, mainly due to the expectation of tight supply. Previously, the transportation was temporarily interrupted due to the fire of the oil pipeline from Iraq to Turkey. In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its forecast for oil growth in 2022. Market participants generally expect that the mutated virus Omicron will have a limited impact on the global economic recovery, but the oil supply is still tight, with investors believing that the Fed is not as hawkish as expected, and the oil price continues to rebound. The survey results released on Wednesday showed that U.S. crude oil inventories may decline for the eighth consecutive week last week. It is generally expected that the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data on Wednesday still point to the decline of crude oil inventories. In addition, the geopolitical conflict between Russia and Ukraine further aggravates supply concerns, and oil prices are supported.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 5930.20 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6050.20 yuan / ton on January 21, up 2.02% from last week. The price of mixed xylene continued to rise this week, with 6290 yuan / ton on January 14 and 6330 yuan / ton on January 21, up 0.64% from last week. In the PX market, the market price of p-xylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 5.8% from 6900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the international crude oil continues to rise, the naphtha market cost is supported, the Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal just needs replenishment, and the logistics is about to have a holiday. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may fall.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell slightly this week. On Monday (January 17), the price of sample enterprises of business society was 8740.00 yuan / ton, and on Friday (January 21), the price of sample enterprises was 8660.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.92%. The price increased by 24.90% over the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of styrene rose first and then fell this week, with a small overall decline. On January 17, East China styrene closed near 8650-8750 yuan / ton, and on January 21, 8550-8650 yuan / ton, down near 100 yuan / ton. The above is the tank price in Zhangjiagang. On January 17, South China styrene closed at 8600-8650 yuan / ton. On January 21, 8600-8650 yuan / ton remained stable, and the delivery price of the above factories was stable.

In terms of raw materials, crude oil rose strongly this week. Pure benzene followed the strong rise of crude oil. As of Friday (January 21), the mainstream quotation was 7680.00 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton or 1.45% from 7570.00 yuan / ton on Monday (January 17). The price rise this week was mainly driven by crude oil. The market took the opportunity to speculate on the price of pure benzene. By the end of the week, after reaching a high level, some sources of goods were sold at a profit. The market selling increased and the price fell rapidly, but the overall price still rose. Give strong support to styrene.

In terms of operating rate, the weekly average operating rate of domestic styrene industry this week was 82.51%, the same as last week. In terms of port inventory, East China port inventory entered the rhythm of accumulation this week, and styrene processing profit suffered a small loss.

Downstream, styrene rose slightly this week. In the PS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of PS in East China was 10100.00 yuan / ton, up 0.33% from 10066.67 yuan / ton on Monday. The rise of crude oil led to the strength of pure benzene and styrene, and the price of PS followed the rise. Small and medium-sized downstream factories have holidays one after another. At present, most of them are in demand for goods before the Spring Festival, resulting in tight supply of some goods.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of EPS in East China was 10250.00 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 10125.00 yuan / ton on Monday. The rise of crude oil led to the strengthening of pure benzene and styrene, and the EPS price followed the rise. However, the terminals have stopped one after another, the demand has weakened significantly, and the high price conflict is obvious. For the time being, there is no intention to replenish the goods in batches before the festival, and the overall delivery is cold.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (January 21), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS Zhejiang was 14600.00 yuan / ton, up 0.34% from 14550.00 yuan / ton on Monday. Near the Spring Festival, the terminal has just needed to prepare goods. In addition, the current price has been at a low level in the near future. The market has the psychology of bottom reading and entering the market. The market turnover is large and the price is up.

3、 Later outlook

Crude oil is strong, but the subsequent deposit correction may be possible. Pure benzene has been corrected at present, and the bottom of styrene cost side support deposit has been reduced. In addition, as the Spring Festival approaches, the mood of goods preparation in downstream factories has weakened, and the probability of styrene is weak. Generally speaking, the styrene market is expected to be weak next week, and the price is expected to be around 8400-8600 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price index of domestic rare earth market rose slightly this week, and the recent rare earth market rose slightly. Recently, the price trend of domestic praseodymium neodymium series was temporarily stable, and the price of heavy rare earth market rose. On January 17, the rare earth index was 852 points, the same as yesterday, down 14.80% from the highest point of 1000 points in the cycle (December 6, 2011), Compared with the lowest point of 271 on September 13, 2015, it increased by 214.39%. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now).

Recently, the market price of light rare earth in China has increased slightly, and the price of praseodymium neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market is mainly stable. In terms of products:

It can be clearly seen from the product price trend chart that the price trend of domestic metal neodymium and neodymium oxide is rising, and the price trend of praseodymium oxide, metal praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide is temporarily stable. On the whole, the price increase of domestic light rare earth market is slowing down. As of the 17th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earths in China was 1.02 million yuan / ton, up 2.0% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.24 million yuan / ton, up 0.81% this week; The price of praseodymium oxide is 915000 yuan / ton, and the trend is temporarily stable this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 900000 yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy is 1.095 million yuan / ton, which is flat this week; The price of metal praseodymium is 1.17 million yuan / ton, the price trend is temporarily stable, and the domestic rare earth market rises slightly.

The domestic rare earth market price rose slightly. On the one hand, the policy was favorable and the supply of electric coal was tight in winter. In addition, in the early stage, the Ministry of industry and information technology issued the motor energy efficiency improvement plan to encourage the development of energy-saving rare earth motors to replace traditional industrial motors and respond to the call for energy conservation and emission reduction. Affected by the news, the price trend rose. On the other hand, there is little change in the supply and demand structure, the demand for high-end magnetic materials is normal, the proportion of frequency conversion air conditioners in domestic household appliances continues to increase, the penetration rate of Nd-Fe-B continues to increase, and the demand side has increased. In addition, the demand for permanent magnet has increased significantly, the rapid development of new energy industry has driven the development of many industries, and the upstream material rare earth permanent magnet has also caught the “express train”. The sales of new energy vehicles are normal. The demand for rare earth is at a high level, and the price of rare earth oxide is at a high level. When there is no lock order, the rare earth metal factory mainly focuses on waiting and watching, and the procurement is more cautious. However, the recent downstream procurement is more cautious, and the price increase of light rare earth market is limited.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is in the traditional peak demand season. Superimposed on the launch expectations of relevant policies of the rare earth industry, supply and demand are expected to resonate with policies, and the rare earth market continues to rise. In addition, the inventory of neodymium praseodymium oxide has been at a low level, the shippers have a low willingness to ship, have a strong wait-and-see mood, and the on-site price remains high. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles has increased. According to the data released by China Automobile Industry Association, the sales volume of new energy vehicles reached a new high in November. The production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 518000 and 531000 respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 1.2 times and 1.1 times respectively, and the market penetration rate was 19.1%. Driven by both market and policy, the demand market for vehicle gauge semiconductors broke out in an all-round way. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy is high, and the price trend of domestic light rare earth market is stable. Driven by the demand for neodymium, iron and boron, the domestic heavy rare earth market price remained high, and the price rose slightly this week.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China rose slightly. As of the weekend, the price of dysprosium oxide was 3 million yuan / ton, an increase of 1.01% this week; The price of dysprosium ferroalloy was 2.98 million yuan / ton, up 1.02% this week; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.8 million yuan / ton, which rose by 1.33% this week. The price of terbium in China rose, the price of terbium oxide in China was 13 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium was 15.25 million yuan / ton. The price trend of heavy rare earth is rising, the transaction market of domestic rare earth market is acceptable, and the leading magnetic material factory purchases actively, which makes the price of domestic heavy rare earth market higher. In the early stage, affected by the rainy season and epidemic situation, the rare earth supply in Myanmar is disturbed. In the later stage, the war in Myanmar starts again, and the supply disturbance is further aggravated. The global rare earth supply is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas second only to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on the products in the domestic heavy rare earth market. Recently, the on-site procurement is active, the stock mood is high, and the on-site heavy rare earth price trend is rising.

In addition, with the support of national policies, Wang Jiangping, Vice Minister of the Ministry of industry and information technology, pointed out in early July that the regulations on the administration of rare earth will be introduced as soon as possible. We expect that the regulations will be introduced with a high probability within this year, and the national level legislation will regulate the high-quality development of the rare earth industry. Industry insiders believe that this reflects the strengthening of government control over the rare earth industry, which is conducive to the healthy development of the industry. Since 2021, the accelerated promulgation of the regulations on the administration of rare earth will, on the one hand, make the industry have laws to abide by and promote the rare earth industry chain to embark on the road of virtuous circle development; On the other hand, it reflects China’s determination to strictly control the supply order of rare earth and support the price of rare earth as an important strategic resource. The overall demand for rare earth products has increased, and the price of domestic rare earth market has increased.

With the sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, the demand continues. In addition, the domestic supply of rare earth is still tight and the inventory continues to decline. The recent on-site transaction market is OK. However, with the advent of the festival, some downstream began to have holidays, and the purchasing sentiment has dropped, Chen Ling, an analyst at business society, expects that the price trend of rare earth market will be stable in the later stage.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 4583.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4566.67 yuan / ton this weekend, down 16.66 yuan / ton, down 0.36%, up 38.38% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On January 16, the calcium carbide commodity index was 119.65, unchanged from yesterday, down 43.62% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 115.62% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support is good, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 4550 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell by 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 4600 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of calcium carbide in Xingping, Ningxia this weekend is 4550 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1670 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1720 yuan / ton, which has increased by 20 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1750 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support increased, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. The price of PVC this week fell from 8340.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8280.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, an increase of 18.92% over the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream products lack the power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the aftermarket

In late January, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly, and the cost of calcium carbide supported well, but the increase was small. It was mainly consolidation. The downstream PVC market fell slightly, the market was difficult to improve, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in late January.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 18, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 9716 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 16, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 9550 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 166 yuan / ton, or 1.75%. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate is 98733 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 983 yuan / ton, Up 11.26 percent

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that last week, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market rose and operated under the support of tight supply in the market. In this week, the pressure on the supply side of dimethyl carbonate is still small, and the confidence of the industry is good. At the beginning of the week (17th), the offer price of Dimethyl Carbonate Factory mostly remained high and firm. The commencement of a plant in Shandong was delayed, and the plant in Zhejiang is also temporarily and stably started. The on-site supply remains tight, and the orders of some factories have been pre sold after the festival, The pre-sale of orders well supported the confidence of the industry. In the middle of the week (18th), dimethyl carbonate factories in Anhui and Shandong raised the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate by 200-300 yuan / ton. At present, as of 18th, the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Shandong was around 9500-9800 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate in Anhui was around 9700-9800 yuan / ton, The average domestic price is 9716 yuan / ton, up 1.75% this week and 11.26% this month. At present, the downstream demand for goods preparation has gradually weakened, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is mild.

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on January 17 was 168.53, the same as yesterday, down 32.59% from the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 68.53% from the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

For the upstream propylene oxide, at the beginning of this week, the domestic propylene oxide Market stabilized after a slight correction. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of January 18, the average ex factory price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 11100 yuan / ton. Compared with last weekend, the average price was increased by 200 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.83% during the week. Compared with the beginning of this month, the price was basically the same.

On the upstream side of dimethyl ether, in the middle of January, dimethyl ether ushered in a sharp decline, and the early increase was basically reversed. Only one weekend, the dimethyl ether market fell sharply, and the price on the 17th was still weak. Although the international crude oil price rose slightly, it brought limited support to the market. The weakening of the civil market price of liquefied gas brought some bad news to the market. The cost methanol market fluctuates mainly in a narrow range, and the market lacks obvious benefits. The downstream market entry enthusiasm is not high, the mentality is cautious, and it is mainly wait-and-see. Henan market fell back to 3600 yuan / ton over the weekend, and Hebei and Shandong also followed the downward trend, falling back below 4000 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream goods preparation is coming to an end, and the logistics and transportation will also be shut down. The DMC data division of business society believes that it is expected that before the festival, the domestic DMC market will have limited fluctuations, mainly narrow adjustments, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in consumer interest on the supply and demand side.

DOTP prices rose this week

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price rose this week, and the overall DOTP market rose. As of January 17, the price of DOTP was 10500 yuan / ton, up 4.22% from 10075 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the DOTP price of 9775 yuan / ton on January 1, an increase of 7.42%%; This week, customers prepared goods actively during the Spring Festival, and the demand for DOTP increased, stimulating the rise of DOTP price.

The price of isooctanol rose sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of isooctanol in China rose sharply this week, up 5.68%. Customers are actively preparing goods before the Spring Festival, the demand rises, and the price of isooctanol rises sharply. The price of isooctanol rose sharply and the cost of plasticizer DOTP rose. With the basic end of goods preparation for the Spring Festival, the transaction of isooctanol stabilized. In the future, the price rise of isooctanol slowed down and the rising power of DOTP weakened.

PTA prices fluctuated and rose

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, PTA prices fluctuated and rose this week. PTA prices continued the previous rise this week. Affected by the rise of crude oil prices, PTA prices follow the rise. On the demand side, PTA is still in the off-season, and the demand follow-up is insufficient. The space for PTA price rise is limited, mainly PTA price consolidation in the future. Limited benefits to DOTP.

PVC market shock rebound

According to the price monitoring of the business society, the PVC price stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the PVC market became warmer. As of January 17, the price of PVC was 8340 yuan / ton, up 0.12% from 8330 yuan / ton on January 10; Compared with the PVC price of 8320 yuan / ton on January 1, it rose by 0.24%. The spring festival atmosphere is getting stronger, and the terminal enterprises are reducing their burdens one after another. Affected by the low real estate boom, the orders of terminal building materials are lower than those in previous years, the rigid demand for PVC raw material procurement is expected to decrease one after another, and the goods preparation for the Spring Festival is coming to an end, and the rigid demand is reduced; The overall demand for plasticizers is insufficient. During the Spring Festival, PVC related manufacturers may have holidays in advance. In the future, the demand for DOTP is expected to decline, and the bad DOTP market still exists.

Future expectations

According to DOTP data analysts of business agency, DOTP prices rose this week due to the rise in the prices of raw materials isooctanol and PTA and the Spring Festival stock of downstream customers. This week, customers are actively preparing goods for the Spring Festival, actively purchasing just in need for a short time, and DOTP prices have risen sharply. In the aftermarket, the rising power of raw materials still exists. In the off-season of downstream demand, with the end of Spring Festival stock preparation, the rising support weakens, the rising power of DOTP is insufficient, and the downward pressure increases. It is expected that the price of DOTP will rise first and then stabilize in the aftermarket.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1173.33 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1166.67 yuan / ton, down 0.57%. The current price fell by 10.71% month on month, and the current price rose by 10.76% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

This week, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong fell steadily. It can be seen from the above figure that after formaldehyde fell for three consecutive months, the price was weak and consolidated, and the decline was slightly slow. As of January 14, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1120-1200 yuan / ton. Two formaldehyde units with an annual output of 120000 tons of Qingzhou Hengxing Chemical Co., Ltd. are shut down for maintenance. Recently, the start-up of formaldehyde enterprises is at a low level, the shipment situation is general, the on-site inventory is low, and the market is slightly lower.

Summary of formaldehyde market prices in various regions as of January 14:

Region, Price

East China 1220-1230 yuan / ton

North China 1200 yuan / ton

Central China 1280 yuan / ton

Northwest China 1150 yuan / ton

Upstream methanol: the average price of methanol production enterprises in the near future is 2402 yuan / ton. International oil prices continued to rise and the trading atmosphere in the mainland improved. In the northwest part, the selling price is low, and the shipment of enterprises is temporarily acceptable, but the freight is high. Traders operate with caution, and some downstream enterprises have acceptable raw material inventory, mainly purchasing on demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is mainly sorted out. Methanol market is weak and cannot support formaldehyde market.

This week, the environmental protection control in Linyi area was temporarily lifted, but the Spring Festival was approaching, some plate factories stopped work and had holidays. Although the other part started work normally, the demand was general, bargain hunting, more wait-and-see mood, the market trading atmosphere was weak, the shipment of formaldehyde manufacturers was general, and the market fell slightly.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been consolidated at a low level, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society expects that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall slightly.

In 2021, the average price of domestic 1# antimony ingot Market was 42625 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year and 74750 yuan / ton at the end of the year, with an annual increase of 75.37%.

On December 31, the antimony commodity index was 103.71, down 7.45% from the highest point of 112.06 in the cycle (2021-11-04), and up 120.75% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

According to the trend chart of antimony ingot Market in 2021, the antimony ingot Market is basically divided into three fluctuation cycles in 21 years.

First cycle: rising period at the beginning of the year (January to March 2021): in the first quarter, the domestic antimony ingot market price continued the trend of years ago, mainly high and stable. Since the middle of 20 years, affected by foreign public health events, the mine end supply has been in a tight state. Under the continuous tight state of domestic supply, some antimony ingot manufacturers have suspended export sales. This month, as the external price continued to rise, the market sentiment was further driven. In the middle of the year, due to the transportation restrictions caused by domestic public health events, downstream manufacturers increased the procurement of antimony ingots and antimony oxide in order to ensure the production demand, which further exacerbated the reluctance of domestic manufacturers to sell when the market circulation source was already small. Most domestic antimony ingot manufacturers have production reduction plans to varying degrees. With multiple positive blessings, prices rose sharply in the short term.

The second stage: consolidation and decline period (from March to the end of June 2021): the trend of the domestic antimony ingot Market rose all the way in the first ten days of March, and the market returned to stability after the middle and late ten days. After entering the middle and late ten days, the price in the early stage rose sharply, some downstream prepared goods in advance, digested some downstream demand, and the market as a whole was in a state of relatively cold trading. Moreover, the price of antimony ingot has been at a high level in recent ten years, both buyers and sellers are waiting and watching, the market game mentality is strong, and the price is adjusted at a high level. After entering April, the price began to loosen, and some were traded at low prices. Although Shanxi, Liaoning, Anhui, Jiangxi, Henan, Hunan, Guangxi, Yunnan and other places had good news of the entry of the environmental protection supervision team in the same period, it was difficult to resist the impact of downstream demand, and the price of antimony ingots entered the downward channel. In May, with the withdrawal of the environmental protection supervision team, enterprises in Hunan resumed construction one after another, and the market supply recovered compared with the early stage, but the downstream demand still did not improve. Immediately enter the off-season of traditional industries in the second quarter, the downstream demand will continue to shrink, and the market mentality is generally weak. The supply and demand sides are still deadlocked, the downstream purchase intention remains depressed, and the market price is temporarily stable after the decline.

Stage III: shock rising period (July 2021 to the end of December 2021): the price of antimony ingots began to fluctuate upward in early July. Although the price rose in the first half of the month, the overall range was limited. Affected by the low intention of downstream receiving goods, the overall market turnover was limited, the ex factory price was strong, and the game mentality of both sides was strong. In the second half of the month, it is reported that the import of antimony ore will be limited in the next half of the year, and the duration may be up to the end of 21. Driven by the tight expectation of raw materials, enterprises’ intention to raise prices is rising. In order to cope with the shortage of raw materials, domestic manufacturers began to raise the ex factory price of antimony ingots, so as to alleviate the problem of insufficient domestic supply. The factory price of the smelter is strong, the price mentality is still high, and some manufacturers still sell in limited quantities. With the rising price, the downstream always has low intention to receive goods, the overall transaction situation of the market is poor, the wait-and-see mood of both supply and demand sides is very strong, the market price is high, and the game mentality of both sides is becoming stronger and stronger.

After entering November, although the market is still short of supply, some enterprises began to reduce prices due to the demand for returned funds. Some low-cost goods were put on the market and there were certain transactions in the market. This part of getting married once again affects the market mentality. Since the price of antimony ingots has reached a high level, the downstream market has entered on-demand procurement, and the inventory has maintained a reasonable range. Most enterprises mainly consume the early procurement inventory. The depressed demand in the downstream once again affects the market mentality. Under the herd mentality of buying up rather than buying down, the enthusiasm of the downstream to enter the market further declines, and the market gradually enters the downward channel. However, at present, the price of antimony ingot is still in a historically high range, and a reasonable correction is also in line with the general law of the market. After the correction, the supply and demand situation entered a state of weak balance between supply and demand, and the price of antimony ingot has been fluctuating at a high level.

It can also be seen from the above comparison chart of price trend from 2017 to 2021 that the price of antimony ingot is at a historical high and enters the shock consolidation cycle after November.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. As can be seen from the above figure, the antimony ingot Market rose for nine months in 2021, and only declined for three months. The largest monthly increase occurred in March, with a monthly increase of 21.76%. The biggest decline occurred in May, with a monthly decline of 14.45%.

In the future, after November, the antimony ingot market fell into a game again, the overall transaction was cold, and the downstream continued to maintain a strong wait-and-see mood. The market is in a weak balance between supply and demand. As of the 31st, the domestic market 2# antimony ingot was 74000 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot 75000 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingot 77000 yuan / ton. At present, the external price continues to be adjusted at a high level, and the market supply is still tight. It is expected that the wait-and-see mood in the future market is still strong, and the overall price of antimony ingot is still at a high level. Under the expectation that there is no significant change in supply and demand, the market price is expected to remain at a high level.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of January 10, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 16566.67 yuan / ton. The price increased by 3.54% compared with last Monday (January 3), 2.69% compared with December 1, and decreased by 21.86% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market rose this week. Recently, the raw material propylene has operated smoothly after the rise, the glycerol market is OK, and there is a certain support on the cost side. Some enterprises reduce the load and stop, and the cargo holders maintain long-term contracts and core customers. The spot supply in the market is tight, the downstream inquiry and procurement are active, the focus of market negotiation has risen steadily, and it is difficult to find low-cost goods.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rose strongly this week (1.3-1.7). At the beginning of the week, the market price was 7548 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7850 yuan / ton, an increase of 4%.

Downstream epoxy resin, supported by dual raw materials on January 7, the liquid epoxy resin Market in East China continued to rise, reaching 26800-27800 yuan / ton. Raw material bisphenol A operated stably at a high level. Supported by the cost side, the transaction of small orders in the venue was at a high level, with an offer of 18450-18500. Cyclic chlorine continued to rise, up 3.33% this week.

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of business society, the current cost side has little impact, and there is still some support from the short-term supply and demand side. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market may operate at a high level in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

At the beginning of 2022, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a good start. The price rose sharply after the new year’s day, and the price of civil gas in Shandong rose above 5500 yuan. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5090.00 yuan / ton on January 3 and 5640.00 yuan / ton on January 10, with an increase of 10.81% and 43.20% compared with the same period last year.

As of January 10, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

region ., Mainstream quotation

North China 5200-5500 yuan / ton

East China 5550-5750 yuan / ton

South China 5600-5800 yuan / ton

Shandong region 5500-5900 yuan / ton

In January, the domestic liquefied gas market ushered in a collective rise. Shandong region generally pushed up sharply, with an obvious range. As of January 10, the price of civil gas in Shandong rose to above 5500 yuan / ton. The good start of the market is mainly driven by international crude oil. The continuous rise of international crude oil after new year’s day has brought obvious support to the liquefied gas market. In addition, Saudi Aramco’s CP price was introduced in January. Although propylene butane fell, the decline was less than expected, which also gave a certain boost to the domestic market. In addition, there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, the enthusiasm for entering the market is high, the manufacturers ship smoothly, the inventory is mostly at a low level, and the prices rise one after another.

The recent sharp rise of LPG futures market has also brought obvious benefits to the spot market. On January 10, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2202 was 5110, the highest price was 5119, the lowest price was 4967, the closing price was 5037, the former settlement price was 5010, the settlement price was 5036, up 27, or 0.53%, the trading volume was 178485, the position was 59134, and the daily position was increased by – 3938. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the international crude oil price has fallen, which has brought limited support to the market. With the end of replenishment in the downstream, most of them are delisted and wait-and-see. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market has significantly weakened compared with that in the early stage. On the 10th, the domestic liquefied gas market has risen and fell, and some regions have replenishment operations. However, the price in Shandong has decreased. It is expected that there will be some resistance to the rise of civil gas price in Shandong in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong increased slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong rose from 10133.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 10766.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.25%, down 2.71% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On the whole, Shandong isooctanol market rose slightly this week and showed a downward trend over the weekend. On January 9, the isooctanol commodity index was 79.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 42.42% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 125.23% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is strengthened and the downstream demand is weakened

From the perspective of manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of mainstream manufacturers of isooctanol in Shandong increased this week: Jianlan chemical offered about 10700 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, which increased by 500 yuan / ton compared with last weekend, mainly contract; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 10700 yuan / ton, an increase of 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng offered 10900 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, up 700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7548.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7850.80 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.00%, an increase of 7.21% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials rose slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP rose slightly this week. DOP price rose from 9775.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 10275.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 5.12%, an increase of 3.53% over the same period last year., There is still a downward trend over the weekend. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for isooctanol procurement weakened.

Weak demand and bearish outlook

In mid and late January, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol may fluctuate slightly and decline mainly. Upstream propylene rose slightly and cost support strengthened, but downstream DOP market fell slightly, and downstream demand showed no signs of improvement. According to the isooctanol analysts of business society, the isooctanol market in Shandong may fluctuate slightly in the middle and late January.

Acetic anhydride prices fell after the festival

According to the data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic anhydride fell after the festival. As of January 7, the price of acetic anhydride was 9925 yuan / ton, down 4.11% from 10350 yuan / ton on January 1. The cost fell, and the acetic anhydride market fell weakly.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell

As can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in business society, the price of acetic acid fell by 2.10% after the festival, the price of acetic acid fell after the festival, the market of acetic acid fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride increased.

Outlook

Business community acetic anhydride data analysts believe that the price of acetic acid fell after the festival, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the market of acetic anhydride fell weakly after the festival. In the future, the demand for acetic anhydride is general, the price of acetic acid decreases, and the cost of acetic anhydride decreases. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the external price of ethylene fluctuated higher this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1245.35/t, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1257.00/t, an increase of 0.94%. The current price increased by 7.32% month on month, and the current price increased by 23.36% year-on-year.

Recently, the external ethylene market fluctuated and rose. The price of ethylene in Asia is stable. As of the 5th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 1016-1026 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 1001-1011 / T. The price of ethylene market in Europe fluctuated and rose. As of the 5th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1554-1563 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $14037-1445 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States rose sharply, up $143 / ton in a single day. As of the 5th, the price was 893-911 yuan / ton. Recently, the external ethylene market continued to rise as a whole, mainly due to the good demand for ethylene in Europe and America, which led to the rise of the overall ethylene market.

International: on January 5, international crude oil prices rose. The settlement price of the main contract of us WTI crude oil futures was US $77.85/barrel, up US $0.86 or 1.1%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.80/barrel, up US $0.80 or 1.0%. The oil price rose to the highest level in the last two months, mainly due to the implementation of the production increase plan of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +), the relatively conservative policy is in line with market expectations, and investors believe that the mutant virus (Omicron) has a relatively mild impact on the economy.

The styrene market continues to rise recently. The production price of styrene in Shandong was 8530.00 yuan / ton, and the price of styrene market increased. The price of pure benzene remained stable, and the support of raw materials was still strong. The position of night futures decreased. The port inventory continued to be low, the domestic short-term spot was still tight, and the production enterprises generally increased at the beginning of the month. The styrene price in Shandong was around 8450-8500 yuan / ton. The high price of styrene can support the price of ethylene.

Ethylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency believe that: at present, in terms of crude oil: the U.S. crude oil inventory continues to decline and the market is bullish, so the data analysts of the business agency expect the external price of ethylene to rise next.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 30, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 11100.00 yuan / ton, down 23.97% compared with that on December 1, and 35.96% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market fell sharply in December. In the first ten days, the price of raw propylene fell first and then rose, with little impact on the cost side. The factory inventory was low, supporting the price. The demand side was cold and cautious, and the market was in a stalemate. In the middle of the year, the raw material propylene operated weakly, the cost support weakened, the factory inventory increased slowly, the downstream demand was cold, and the bearish mood was strong. With the decline of price, the factory shipment improved and the inventory was gradually digested, but the downstream follow-up was relatively general, the market continued to be stable and wait-and-see, and the market atmosphere was flat. In the last ten days of the year, the downstream purchase reduction followed up, the factory inventory was under pressure, and the propylene oxide Market decreased steadily. With the rise of the price of raw propylene, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the downstream purchase increased, and the factory’s short-term shipment improved, but the terminal was mostly cautious. On the 30th, the price decreased again under the pressure of factory inventory, On the 30th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10650-10800 yuan / ton.

For upstream propylene, on December 29, the reference price of propylene was 7544.60, a decrease of 0.01% compared with December 1 (7545.50). On the 29th, the trend of propylene (Shandong) was stable and small, and individual enterprises adjusted slightly. The mainstream price of propylene in Shandong was 7550-7600 yuan / ton. The crude oil fluctuated upward, and the propylene price increased compared with that of last week under the boost of cost. However, the recent horizontal consolidation of mainstream downstream polypropylene made it difficult to significantly improve the propylene procurement.

On December 29, the reference price of downstream propylene glycol was 16833.33, a decrease of 6.13% compared with December 1 (17933.33).

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the price of raw material propylene is mainly stable, the cost side has certain support, the factory inventory is under pressure, the market atmosphere is weak, and the cautious wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may be dominated by weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, bromine prices fell this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price in Shandong was 67125 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 63142.86 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 20.83%, and the price increased by 59.43% compared with the same period last year. On December 30, the bromine commodity index was 186.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 23.95% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 216.48% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is weak. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 49000-53000 yuan / ton, and the bromine price is down as a whole this month. At present, the inventory of domestic bromine enterprises is low and they are not in a hurry to ship. At present, the operation of bromine downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries is low, which is in conflict with high price bromine and mainly focuses on multi-dimensional rigid demand. Supply and demand play a game.

Raw materials: sulfur prices rose this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 2000 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 2026.67 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.33%. There is no inventory pressure on refinery enterprises in various regions, and the market trading is OK. The enthusiasm of downstream sulfuric acid to enter the market for procurement is general, the market demand for liquid sulfur is weak, and the market demand for phosphate fertilizer has increased. In the future, we will wait and see the consolidation of the sulfur market and pay attention to the downstream follow-up.

Business analysts believe that the overall demand growth of bromine is relatively slow. Now the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are resistant to the high price of bromine, mainly purchasing on demand, and the downstream support for bromine is insufficient. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be weak in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

In 2021, the domestic PA66 market increased greatly. The data in the bulk data list of business society showed that most plastic products developed well this year, and even the price range of PA66 frequently exceeded the 40000 yuan mark. As of December 31, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 36500 yuan / ton, an increase of 24.15% over the price level at the beginning of the year. This year, the world is still affected by health events and the systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, while domestic adiponitrile production lines have not been delivered, and the pattern of high dependence on import of PA66 raw materials has not been improved. The high price of upstream raw materials is superimposed on the macroeconomic situation, which is biased towards inflation. Behind the sharp rise in PA66 spot price, we can’t help feeling the pressure from many aspects.

quotations analysis

After the market situation last year, PA66 felt the boost from the raw material end at the beginning of 2021. The adipic acid market ended in January, and the downward trend picked up. Most dealers reported tentative high prices, and generally rose in East and South China. Combined with the replenishment behavior in the downstream before the festival, the pressure at the supply end is generally controllable. In February, uncontrollable overseas factors such as the low temperature disaster in the United States continued to affect, and many enterprises such as crude oil and chemical industry stopped production, and the devices were frequently overhauled. Among them, NVIDIA, an international manufacturer of PA66 and its industrial chain related products, has two adiponitrile and two hexanediamine plants in Texas, USA, which are seriously affected by the cold disaster. There is also the oshengde plant in Alabama, and its adiponitrile and hexanediamine plants have also declared force majeure. According to industry estimates, the above plants alone account for 65% and 50% of the global production capacity of adiponitrile and hexanediamine. The production capacity loss caused by this disastrous weather has made the global supply of PA66 raw materials “frost and snow” into a very severe situation, and also laid the main tone of PA66 market in 2021. In the first quarter, PA66 enterprises and businesses frequently sent price increase letters, the production unit was under low load, and the restart time was uncertain. In terms of supply of PA66, the shipment is insufficient. The production of domestic polymerization plants is mainly used to meet contract orders. It is almost difficult to find any goods outside the main customers, and the domestic spot price is rising.

In the early part of the second quarter, the market has soared, and the price of adipic acid in the upstream fell back from the high level and fluctuated downward after experiencing the top building market. At the same time, adipic acid has gradually entered the off-season, the delivery speed has decreased significantly, the inventory pressure of enterprises has increased, and it is inevitable for enterprises to reduce prices and destock. Under the influence of increased supply pressure and relatively weak demand, prices lost support and gradually fell. Although the heat of upstream raw materials has cooled, the support for PA66 cost has been weakened. However, the decline of PA66 market in the second quarter is also one of the main factors that drag down the market. Due to the continuous high cost level, the overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry has stabilized to about half. Although the enterprise has no pressure on inventory, its profit margin is limited, and its production and shipment mainly meet the early orders. The transfer of cost pressure to the downstream makes end users complain incessantly, and the purchase strategy is more cautious. In terms of trading, the market mostly takes goods with small orders, and the reduction of trading power has caused price fluctuations in the market to a certain extent.

In the third quarter, it undertook the high callback market in the second quarter. Due to the sharp rise in the price of far-end raw material pure benzene, the price of adipic acid stopped falling and rising in early July. When the adipic acid market was stable, adiponitrile started again in late August. Due to the high degree of dependence on imports, large international manufacturers claimed to lose production capacity due to force majeure in the medium and long term. The recent shortage pattern of adiponitrile was prominent and the price rose. However, in the third quarter, PA66 market was indifferent to the upstream support feedback, and the market basically maintained the medium and long-term pattern of weak supply and demand, with obvious market characteristics in the off-season. In the whole third quarter, the overall load level of PA66 enterprises in China was not high, some units resumed work, and the supply picked up. In terms of demand, the terminal enterprises follow up slowly, the on-site trading orders are small, the market momentum is insufficient, and the buyers have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. Merchants tentatively hold firm in their offer, and there is profit making shipment in the actual order. Recently, the market momentum has not improved, and the light state continues. It was not until the traditional peak season of “golden nine and silver ten” that PA66 spot was getting better and better. There were few arrivals at major ports, and the source of imported goods could not fill the gap of domestic demand. The demand of terminal enterprises is still sluggish, and the follow-up of goods preparation is slow. However, in the face of the reduction of on-site supply and offer, the seller’s leading role in the market is enhanced.

The performance of the “silver ten” in the second half of the traditional peak season is relatively less brilliant. The same raw material prices run at a high level and the same cost side support is strong. However, the operating rate of the industry continues to be affected by the shortage of adiponitrile. In addition, the traditional peak season is gradually weak, the demand is gradually weakened, the on-site supply price is high, the practitioners have heavy resistance, the purchase operation is biased to just need to maintain production, and the weak market of supply and demand continues to spread. The seller’s mentality is loose and the offer is gradually reduced.

Future forecast

According to the bulk data list of business society, the low point of PA66 in 2021 appeared at 29400 yuan / ton in the new year, while the high point appeared at 42900 yuan / ton in early April. This year, the price of PA66 once again hit the price mark of 40 thousand tons, which reminds people of the hot market of PA66 a few years ago. This moment of the same price range is not exactly the same as that moment. At that time, terminal enterprises bloomed everywhere and the industry developed rapidly. Now it is the year after the downstream departure, and the dilemma of high dependence on imports of adiponitrile is becoming more and more prominent. The weak market of supply and demand in 2021 is largely due to the insufficient supply of adiponitrile, and the world has been suffering for a long time. At present, many domestic adiponitrile production lines are under construction. It is reported that two production lines are expected to be completed and shipped successively in the next two years. Upstream and downstream operators of the domestic PA66 industrial chain are looking forward to a PA66 industry with more stable supply and demand and healthier market.

1、 Price data

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7345.75 yuan / ton, up 1.03% from 7270.75 yuan / ton on December 27. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

As of December 31, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic local refining straight run naphtha was 7160.00 yuan / ton, up 1.74% from 7037.50 yuan / ton on December 27. The actual transaction price of local refining straight run naphtha was about 7000-7300 yuan / ton.

On December 31, the naphtha commodity index was 90.66, up 0.15 points from yesterday, down 12.27% from the highest point 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 114.63% from the lowest point 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha rose slightly this week, a small amount of terminal olefins just needed to be released, and the manufacturers actively pushed up the downstream goods preparation before the festival.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the Omicron mutant virus spread rapidly, but the symptoms seem to be milder than the previous variants; The market hopes that Omicron will weaken its impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported. The main reason is that Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. In addition, although the epidemic trend is still serious, the symptoms of omiron infected people are relatively mild, which brings some optimism to the market.

The price of toluene rose by 40.00 yuan / ton on December 31, and the price of toluene rose by 40.00 yuan / ton on December 31. The price of mixed xylene rose this week, with the price of 5860.00 yuan / ton on December 31 and 5730.00 yuan / ton on December 27, up 2.27%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of 31, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, unchanged from the beginning of the week.

3、 Future forecast

Energy analysts of business society believe that the rise of international crude oil, the cost support of naphtha market, a small amount of terminal olefins just need to be released, and the downstream goods are prepared before the festival. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fluctuated in December, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of December 30, the mainstream offer price of China viscosity 2.75-2.85 by the sample enterprises was about 15633.33 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.05% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: the raw material caprolactam stabilized after falling this month, the upstream pure benzene fluctuated, and the cost side of caprolactam supported the fluctuation. The downstream demand is reduced, and the market is dominated by weak and stable operation. It is expected that the caprolactam price may continue to run sideways.

Upstream caprolactam stabilized after falling in December, and the weakness of PA6 cost side eased. The overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant was stable at about 70% this month. The maintenance of some enterprises in the early stage was good for the spot price. Due to the reduction of supply and the rise of downstream goods preparation operation, the polymerization plant harvested some orders. However, some downstream enterprises had holidays in advance, and the demand for goods preparation in some areas collapsed. The inventory position of PA6 of other downstream users is low, the on-site trading is OK, and the market picks up at the end of the month.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that: the spot price of PA6 recovered, the horizontal consolidation after the decline of caprolactam, and the cost support of PA6 is still general. The terminal demand changes one after another, and the order situation of PA6 enterprises is OK. It is expected that the replenishment demand of PA6 before New Year’s day will be released in the short term, and the price may rise slightly.

According to the bulk list data of business society, as of December 29, the average quotation price of melamine enterprises was 9733.33 yuan / ton, down 39.67% compared with the price on December 1, down 43.74% year-on-year in a three-month cycle and up 33.94% compared with the same period last year.

The overall trend of melamine market fell sharply in December. In the first half of the month, the price of raw urea gradually declined and the cost support gradually loosened. The overall start-up of melamine market was at a high level, and the downstream start-up was limited. In some areas, due to environmental protection control and other factors, the just need to follow up was weak. In terms of export, it was mainly wait-and-see, the shipment of enterprises was under pressure, the contradiction between supply and demand was prominent, and the overall atmosphere of the market was weak. In the second half of the month, the raw material urea was in strong operation. With the sharp decline in the price of melamine in the early stage, the cost pressure was obvious, and the inquiry in the export market was improved. The enterprise’s shipment was ok, the price stopped falling and rose. Near the end of the month, the demand side showed general performance and the market atmosphere was light.

Upstream urea, according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic urea market rose on December 29, and the reference price of urea was 2552.00 on December 29, an increase of 1.92% compared with December 1. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have been adjusted at a low level recently, and the cost support has weakened. From the perspective of demand: the promotion of agricultural demand is accelerated, and industrial demand is mainly wait-and-see. Agricultural fertilizer preparation began to increase in some areas, and the winter storage of chemical fertilizer is expected to accelerate. The market price of melamine fell sharply, the inventory of enterprises was under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation weakened. In terms of supply, some gas head enterprises stopped production for maintenance, and the daily output of urea decreased slightly. On the whole, urea cost support weakened, downstream demand increased, urea supply was insufficient, and urea rose slightly in the future.

Melamine analysts of business society believe that at present, the upstream urea price has risen and the cost support has increased. Recently, the operating rate of melamine has declined slightly, but the demand follow-up is insufficient. Enterprises mainly execute early orders, and the market atmosphere is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market may operate stably and weakly, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business society, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the beginning of the year was 1167.67 yuan / ton, and the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong at the end of the year was 1275.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.29%. The highest point was October 14, and the average price was 2266.67 yuan / ton. The lowest point was the beginning of the year, and the highest point was 94.29% higher than the lowest point.

formaldehyde

In 2021, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong rose first and then fell. From the above figure, it can be seen that formaldehyde was in an upward trend for seven months in 2021, and the highest increase in a single month was in September, reaching 22.38%. The rise in September was mainly due to the soaring price of raw material methanol due to macro factors such as coal. Superimposed on the positive downstream goods preparation before the national day, superimposed on double positive factors, the formaldehyde market rose sharply. Formaldehyde has been in a downward trend for four months in 2021, with the largest decline in November, reaching 15.6%. The main reason for the decline in November was the continuous decline of raw methanol. In addition, with the relaxation of power restriction policy, the load of some formaldehyde units was increased, and there was sufficient supply of formaldehyde on the market, while the downstream operation was low, and the supply exceeded the demand, resulting in a sharp decline in the formaldehyde market. In addition to the large changes in the market in the past two months, there were also March, with an increase of 17.65%. The main reason is that there is a strong demand for downstream board factories and adhesive factories in Shandong. The news of “Russia’s proposed wood export ban” has promoted the rise of the wood market. The industry has a good acceptance of the rising price of formaldehyde, high purchasing sentiment and strong stock atmosphere, which supports the continuous rise of the formaldehyde market, and the formaldehyde market is in a high-speed rising channel.

Upstream methanol: it can be seen from the above figure that methanol and formaldehyde basically maintain the same curve throughout the year. The sharp rise of methanol was also in September, mainly because futures strongly led the national long methanol sentiment. The inventory of mainstream production plants remained low and the pressure was difficult to show. In addition, the downstream goods preparation was more active before the national day, which supported the sharp rise of the market in the main methanol producing areas. At the end of October, methanol began to decline, and the decline continued until November. The main reason was the sharp decline in the price of thermal coal. Methanol was sold in Northwest China, but the sales were average, the enterprise inventory increased, and the methanol market continued to decline sharply. The market of methanol basically dominates the market curve of formaldehyde and plays a decisive role in the market trend of formaldehyde.

The downstream of formaldehyde is mainly plate, and the operation of the downstream plate plant determines the purchase intention. In March, affected by macro factors, the export of wood and furniture resumed, and the logs rose sharply. The demand for furniture and plates from abroad, such as Southeast Asia, increased. Therefore, the orders of domestic plate factories increased, the demand for formaldehyde increased significantly, the procurement was positive, the supply of formaldehyde was not in demand, and the market rose significantly. In addition, it is greatly affected by environmental protection. In November, some regions frequently started secondary environmental protection control, the operating rate of downstream plate plants continued to be low, the purchasing mood of operators was weak, and the market trading atmosphere was cold. In order to ship, formaldehyde manufacturers took the initiative to lower their quotation, resulting in the decline of formaldehyde market.

Recently, the domestic methanol market continues to decline, the downstream demand is poor, and the purchasing sentiment is weak. Therefore, the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of the business society predicts that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly fall in shock at the beginning of 2022.

1、 Price data

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners continued to rise this week. On December 26, the average price in Shandong market was 2708.75 yuan / ton, up 5.45% from 2568.75 yuan / ton on December 20.

On December 26, the commodity index of petroleum coke was 210.68, the same as yesterday, down 19.65% from the highest point 262.19 in the cycle (2021-09-29), and up 214.96% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 30, 2012)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery delivered well and the transaction was positive. The inventory of some refineries was low and the price continued to rise.

Upstream: the international crude oil price rose this week, and the symptoms of Omicron infection cases were mild. Even though the epidemic cases in Europe and the United States increased sharply, the symptoms were relatively mild, and the impact of the epidemic on the market was weakened. In addition, oil and gas exploitation in the United States has increased, which has a certain negative impact on oil prices. Second, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) reported on Wednesday that the decline in US crude oil inventories last week exceeded market expectations, which benefited the oil market. In addition, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) controlled production, it is unlikely that Iranian oil will return to the international market in the near future, the oil market remains in a tight balance, and the oil price has been supported.

Downstream: Calcined coke prices remained stable as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon continued to decline; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum rose. As of December 26, the price was 20093.33 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.24), there are 11 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 2 commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were liquefied natural gas (6.83%), petroleum coke (5.45%) and WTI crude oil (4.34%). There are 4 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were steam coal (- 10.77%), methanol (- 6.76%) and dimethyl ether (- 1.72%). Both rose or fell by 0.51% this week.

Petroleum coke analysts of business society believe that: Recently, the local refining manufacturers have shipped well and the price has increased. At present, the downstream has purchased successively, and the inventory in the local refining market is low. It is expected that the petroleum coke price may continue to rise in the near future.

Trend of metallic magnesium in recent March

Market analysis this week

This week, the price of magnesium decreased first and then increased. At the beginning of the week, the high level was obviously loose, and then fell back. Many traders fell steadily and secretly, and downstream buyers were also more cautious in purchasing. By Wednesday, the situation in magnesium city had risen again, mainly due to the convening of the Yulin environmental protection inspector case meeting the day before, and the magnesium price returned to 50000 yuan / ton.

As of December 24, the specific price range of each region is as follows: ex factory tax cash exchange in fugu area is 49900-50000 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Ningxia is 49900-50000 yuan / ton; Taiyuan factory tax included spot exchange 50000-50100 yuan / ton; The ex factory tax included spot exchange in Wenxi area is 50100-50200 yuan / ton.

Inventory supply and demand are both tight

According to the business agency, some traders said that there was little inventory left in the factory, and some factories suspended quotation. The output of magnesium in Yulin from January to November was 474000 tons, down 5.2%.

After the stock replenishment before the festival in foreign countries, during the Christmas holiday this week, orders fell sharply, overseas transactions were cold, lack of support from overseas orders, and domestic procurement was mainly rigid demand, so the quotation of magnesium ingots was under pressure.

Environmental news triggered a jump in magnesium prices

On the afternoon of December 22, the Symposium on typical cases of the central ecological and environmental protection inspectors was held in Yulin. The meeting informed the central ecological and environmental protection inspector of the typical case of “ineffective elimination of backwardness, frequent illegal construction and prominent environmental problems in the blue carbon industry” in Yulin, conducted a profound and comprehensive analysis on the problems involved, and arranged the deployment of rectification work.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the orchid charcoal market was weak and stable on the 24th. The mainstream price of small and medium-sized materials in fugu market was 1650-1750 yuan / ton, and the coke surface was 1150-1250 yuan / ton. Under the influence of environmental protection inspectors, Lantan enterprises are expected to stop production and limit production. Previously, the enterprises that stopped production are expected to resume production in years, and some of them will suspend shipping quotation.

The sudden news from the environmental protection inspector once again panicked the magnesium ingot Market. Some magnesium plants rose 10000 yuan a day to 50000 yuan / ton of tax included spot exchange. Some magnesium plants did not offer prices and waited on the market. Downstream purchasers do not buy the sudden surge in prices. They are more cautious and wait-and-see, and the transaction is not positive. Traders have a strong willingness to support prices due to policy uncertainty.

Future forecast

From the perspective of supply-demand relationship, there are not many spot goods at present, and the demand side performance is not ideal. The high price follow-up of downstream users is not strong. At the same time, due to foreign holidays, orders are also reduced synchronously, and the driving force for the rise of magnesium ingots is insufficient. Traders are expected to offer more firm prices under the influence of environmental protection policies, and the high price support of magnesium ingots is still in progress. Therefore, business analysts believe that the magnesium ingot Market will maintain a high and stable operation in the short term, and we need to pay close attention to the policy details in the follow-up.

This week, the domestic liquefied gas market was not favorable, and the price continued to fall. The price of civil gas in Shandong mostly fell below the 5000 yuan / ton level. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5220.00 yuan / ton on December 12 and 4950.00 yuan / ton on December 20, with a decrease of 5.17% during the week and an increase of 41.03% compared with the same period last year.

As of December 20, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

North China 4720-5050 yuan / ton

East China 4750-5200 yuan / ton

South China 4950-5250 yuan / ton

Shandong region 4800-5200 yuan / ton

This week, the overall trend of the domestic liquefied gas market continued to be weak, the focus of Shandong civil gas market continued to move downward, and the price mostly fell below the 5000 yuan / ton level. At present, the market is lack of good. The downward trend of international crude oil shocks has brought insufficient support to the market. Although the supply of Shandong market has not fully recovered and operates at a low level, the improvement of terminal demand is insufficient. The recent cooling of the weather is not obvious, the market demand is limited, the downstream mentality is cautious, and the enthusiasm to enter the market is not high. The manufacturer’s inventory is increasing gradually, focusing on profit making shipment. The domestic civil liquefied gas market is mainly weak, and the civil gas market in other regions has also been reduced to varying degrees.

The recent shock and decline of LPG futures market has brought some bad news to the spot market. On December 20, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2202 was 4280, the highest price was 4341, the lowest price was 4161, the closing price was 4175, the former settlement price was 4375, the settlement price was 4252, down 200, down 4.57%, the trading volume was 170851, the position was 70082, and the daily position was increased by 4749. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the domestic liquefied gas market as a whole is mainly downward, and the market lacks obvious benefits. The shock of the international crude oil trend brings limited support to the market, the improvement of terminal demand is insufficient, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is limited, the overall transaction atmosphere in the market is weak, the manufacturer’s mentality is general, and the price is mainly reduced for shipment. It is expected that the price of civil gas in Shandong will still be downward in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 22, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in the mainstream areas of China was around 690 yuan / ton. Compared with December 1 (reference price 680 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 10 yuan / ton, or 1.47%.

In early December, the domestic phosphate ore market was slightly up

At the beginning of December, the domestic phosphorus ore market operated steadily as a whole, and the downstream Yellow Phosphorus market gradually warmed up since the beginning of December, bringing a positive atmosphere to the market. The continuous tight supply support in the phosphorus ore quarry, coupled with the effective drive of the downstream, some mining enterprises have expectations for the rise of the phosphorus ore market price. On August 8, mining enterprises in some parts of China raised the market price of medium and high-end phosphorus ore slightly again. In Guizhou, the freight yard price of 28% phosphorus ore increased by 20 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of 28% phosphorus ore is around 580-620 yuan / ton, the price of 30% phosphorus ore increased by 20 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% phosphorus ore is around 630-670 yuan / ton. The market situation of phosphorus ore in Guangxi has also gathered slightly upward. The freight yard prices of 28% grade and 30% grade phosphorus ore have also been increased by about 20 yuan / ton. After adjustment, the ex factory price of 28% grade phosphorus ore is around 590-630 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 30% grade phosphorus ore is around 640-680 yuan / ton.

In late December, the domestic phosphorus ore market was sorted and operated at a high level

In late December, China’s domestic phosphorus ore market remained at a high level. At present, the downstream procurement atmosphere was acceptable, the downstream Yellow Phosphorus price gradually rose, continued to support the phosphorus ore market, the mine supply remained tight, and most orders were contract users. On the 21st, some domestic mining enterprises in Guizhou raised the Chinese end-grade phosphorus ore yard price slightly again, The increase range is 10 yuan / ton. The freight yard price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou is 640-670 yuan / ton. As of December 22, the reference average price in the mainstream areas of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 690 yuan / ton, with an increase of 1.5% within the month. At present, the downstream of domestic phosphorus ore market maintains stable procurement, and the supply and demand surface in the plant is normal.

According to the business agency, the following is the current price of phosphate rock in some parts of China (for reference only)

product region grade Price remarks

Phosphate rock Guizhou 30% 640-670 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guizhou 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

Ammonium phosphate ore Hubei 28% 660-680 yuan / ton Plate price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 30% 630-680 yuan / ton Factory price

Phosphate rock Guangxi 28% 560-620 yuan / ton Factory price

In terms of index, the phosphorus ore commodity index on December 21 was 126.61, up 0.62 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 146.42% from the lowest point of 51.38 on December 24, 2018. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

After years of development, China’s phosphorus ore industry has formed a mature industrial chain, which is mainly divided into three links. Among them, the upstream participants are phosphorus ore mining equipment suppliers, including civil blasting equipment suppliers and mining machinery equipment suppliers; The main participants in the middle reaches are phosphorus ore mining enterprises, which are the owners of phosphorus ore resources and mining technology; The downstream participants are phosphorus chemical enterprises, and the main products are yellow phosphorus and phosphoric acid.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, in December, the domestic yellow phosphorus Market Trend operated upward as a whole. The manufacturer mainly supplied old customers with early orders, and the transaction of new orders was acceptable. There are more inquiries in the yellow phosphorus field, higher market procurement enthusiasm, tight supply, manufacturers are reluctant to sell, and the price of yellow phosphorus rises. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is about 45000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Sichuan is about 44000 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation in Guizhou is about 42000-43000 yuan / ton. It is reported that Yunnan began to implement the new electricity price in 2022 in January. The electricity price in Yunnan will rise, and the cost of yellow phosphorus enterprises will increase.

Forecast and analysis of future trend of phosphate rock

At present, as the new year’s Day holiday is approaching, the downstream of domestic phosphorus ore may welcome phased goods preparation. Phosphorus ore analysts of business society believe that most of the phosphorus ore market will continue to operate at a high level and stably in the near future., More attention should be paid to the news changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitored by the business society, as of December 21, the average price of domestic rubber grade high-grade white carbon black was 6750.00 yuan / ton. This week, the white carbon black market mainly operated stably, and the white carbon black price was stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the transaction atmosphere is general.

The mainstream price of white carbon black is about 6750 yuan / ton, and the price is mainly stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price has not changed significantly, down 1.82% compared with the same period last month. The overall market supply and demand is balanced, the operation is weak in a narrow range, the procurement enthusiasm is general, the main supply contract customers, the negotiation atmosphere is flat, and the white carbon black market is stable, medium and strong.

The upstream hydrochloric acid fluctuated upward. As of December 20, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly, up 30.00 yuan / ton or 10.14% compared with the quotation on December 17, and up 6.02% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The upstream liquid chlorine market is good, giving strong support to hydrochloric acid, the downstream ammonium chloride market is low, the polyaluminium chloride market is rising slightly, and has a good enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid procurement.

On December 20, the chemical index was 1108 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 20.86% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 85.28% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that: in the short term, white carbon black will mainly operate smoothly, and the price fluctuation range is limited. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the price of cryolite in Henan remained unchanged this week. On December 17, the average market price in Henan was 7275.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.75% month on month and 25.43% year-on-year.

quotations analysis

The domestic cryolite market continues to be strong. At present, the source of raw materials of most enterprises tends to be stable. Due to the high price of raw materials and the impact of cost pressure, the high price of cryolite is temporarily stable. Coupled with the heating in northern winter, the production of manufacturers is limited and the output is reduced, and the market situation continues to be high. As of December 17, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong is 7000-7600 yuan / ton, and that in Henan is 6700-8600 yuan / ton.

In terms of raw materials, the soda ash market continued to decline this week. As of December 17, the average market price was about 2775 yuan / ton. The price in the week fell by 8.26% and increased by 98.21% compared with the same period last year. The soda ash price was higher than that in previous periods. The operating rate of soda ash was 82.54% this week, the output increased during the week, the supply of soda ash was stable, the manufacturers actively shipped, mainly purchased on demand in the downstream, and the market trading was general.

In the downstream, the aluminum market fluctuated upward. On December 17, the aluminum price was 19400.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.30% in the week compared with the price of 118780.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week. The downstream market raised the quotation, the aluminum demand recovered, the accumulation of social inventory eased, the supply and demand side improved, the aluminum price rose, and the market was sorted upward.

Future forecast

The quotation of domestic cryolite enterprises continues to be high, the high cost of raw materials and the impact of limited production of heating in winter coexist, and the mentality of the field operators is optimistic. From the perspective of market supply, the short-term cryolite trend continues to operate at a high level, and the specific attention is paid to the situation of upstream raw materials.

The domestic aggregate MDI market rebounded slowly, the spot was tight, and the price was high in the short term. Weekly quotation, factory prices are increased, limited supply; Production enterprises deliver goods evenly, with slow delivery, slow filling of goods in the trade market, small incoming volume near the end of the year, and tight market supply; In addition, dealers are worried about the high settlement price at the end of the month, and the quotation of mainstream dealers is higher.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, from December 10 to December 17, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 18720 yuan / ton to 19280 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.99%, a month on month decrease of 4.08% and a year-on-year increase of 8.62%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of December 17:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

North China and Shandong 19400-19500 yuan / ton 19000-19100 yuan / ton

East China 19500 yuan / ton 19000-19100 yuan / ton

South China 19500 yuan / ton 19000-19200 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of December 17:

Raw material pure benzene: the price of East pure benzene rises, and this round of rise is mainly driven by the price of Shandong. Shandong market immediately began to hype the news that new downstream devices were about to enter the procurement market. Traders bought goods actively and prices rose. Driven by the atmosphere of Shandong, the East China market has a large volume of paper goods, and the price has also risen rapidly.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: aniline rebounded slightly driven by cost. Ningbo Wanhua phase 2 aniline MDI cogeneration unit was shut down, Yantai Wanhua’s shipment to Ningbo decreased and aniline inventory increased, but Yantai Wanhua’s plan to store a large amount of aniline for export has not yet been heard, which has no impact on the domestic aniline Market

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.5 million T / a plant phase I stopped on November 27 for 45 days; Phase II will stop on December 11 for 45 days. The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF has a negative phenomenon this week; There is a maintenance plan in January 2022, and the specific time is unknown at present. Dongcao Ruian 80000 T / a unit operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market is mainly sorted out.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency: this week, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate returned to rise sharply again, and the rising range is increasing. On December 16, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 233600 yuan / ton, Compared with the price at the beginning of the week (the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 207600 yuan / ton on December 12), the price increased by 12.52%. The average price of battery lithium carbonate in East China was 247000 yuan / ton on December 16 (on December 12, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 220000 yuan / ton), up 12.27% compared with the price. As of December 16, the comprehensive quotation of industrial grade lithium carbonate market was about 207000 ~ 236000 yuan / ton, and the comprehensive quotation of battery grade lithium carbonate Market was about 217000 ~ 268000 yuan / ton.

By observing the market changes, the price of lithium carbonate has been rising again and again this week, and the rising range is increasing. Due to the increasingly serious mood of goods preparation at the end of the year, the market procurement volume continues to increase. The output of lithium iron phosphate and ternary materials in the downstream also increased significantly, so the demand for lithium carbonate continued to rise. With the obvious reduction in the domestic market, the supply of goods is also relatively tight, and the market is hard to find. Therefore, manufacturers and traders have raised the price of lithium carbonate one after another. With the impact of the continuous decline of lithium carbonate inventory in the market, the situation of high price lock volume appears.

The price of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide in the downstream is temporarily stable. Recently, the price of raw spodumene has been running at a high level, with obvious cost support, little change in supply and demand, and a fair market atmosphere. At present, there are still some stocks in the market, and the future demand for lithium carbonate conversion may appear, which may follow the upward trend.

The price of lithium iron phosphate power type in the downstream remained stable, the supply and demand of mainstream lithium iron phosphate enterprises in the market were still tight at full production and sales, and the acceptance of price increase in the downstream was improved. In terms of price, the price of lithium salt is still in an upward trend, and the price of lithium iron phosphate may rise in the future driven by the raw material end.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business society, with the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the hoarding sentiment of lithium carbonate raw materials in the downstream market continues to rise. In addition, the current sharp decline in the spot volume of lithium carbonate has continuously raised the price. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still rising.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, mixed xylene fell first and then rose this week, with a slight increase compared with last week. On December 3, the price was 5740 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 10), the price was 5840 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.17% over last week and 44.91% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the international oil price rose by a wide margin, the cost side was boosted, the mixed xylene market rose, the enthusiasm was strong, and the price rebounded. However, poor downstream demand still restricts the rise of mixed xylene.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market fell after rising this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was $708.5/t, up $16 / T or 2.31% month on month (December 3); the reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was $736 / T, up $19 / T or 2.65% month on month (December 3).

In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia is expected to maintain strong crude oil demand in the future, and raised the official sales price of all crude oil grades in Asia and the United States in January. The market’s concern about the inhibition of crude oil demand by the new crown mutant strain Omicron eased, the price rebounded sharply, and the price returned to above $70 / barrel. Brent rose $5.27 / barrel, or 7.54% this week; WTI rose $5.41/barrel, or 8.16%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price this week was flat compared with the beginning of the week. On Friday (December 10), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, an increase of 55.81% over the same period last year. As of December 10, the closing prices in Asia were 814-816 US dollars / ton, FOB Korea and 832-834 US dollars / ton CFR China.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell broadly this week. On Friday (December 10), the price of ox in East China was 6300 yuan / ton, down 4.55% from last week and up 13.31% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong rose first and then fell this week. The price was 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3 and 7789.2 yuan / ton on December 10, down 1.24% from last week and 36.57% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market is still worried about the new crown variant strain Omicron. Many countries strengthen epidemic prevention and control measures. Before further determining its impact, the demand for crude oil will still be limited. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

Downstream demand continues to be light, and the price rise is blocked. The short-term mixed xylene price trend is obviously affected by external news. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

Acetic anhydride prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business society, the price of acetic anhydride fluctuated and fell this week, and the acetic anhydride market fell. As of December 13, the price of acetic anhydride was 10950.00 yuan / ton, down 4.16% from 11425.00 yuan / ton last weekend (December 3). The cost of raw materials decreased and the market of acetic anhydride fell.

Raw material acetic acid market fell

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic acid fell slightly this week, and the decline of acetic acid Market slowed down. As of December 13, the quotation of acetic acid was 6140 yuan / ton, down 1.76% from 6250 yuan / ton on December 3 last weekend. This week, the price of acetic acid fell slightly, the price of raw materials fell, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the pressure of acetic anhydride fell was great.

Methanol prices fell sharply this week

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the methanol market fell this week and the methanol price fell sharply. As of December 13, the methanol price was 2612.50 yuan / ton, down 5.26% from 2757.50 yuan / ton on December 3 last weekend; The domestic methanol market fell. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased.

Market overview and future forecast

Business agency acetic anhydride data analysts believe that the decline in the price of raw acetic acid slowed down this week, and the price of methanol fell sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure of acetic anhydride weakened; Acetic anhydride supply is normal, downstream purchasing enthusiasm is general, and customers are more cautious. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is adjusted weakly, the downward pressure of acetic anhydride is weakened, and the future price of acetic anhydride is expected to be adjusted weakly.

Last week (12.6-10), the domestic market price of butyl acetate fell significantly. It was mainly affected by the weak cost and weak demand caused by the decline of upstream acetic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of butyl acetate was 2.78%. The domestic mainstream quotation of butyl acetate at the weekend was 9500-10000 yuan / ton.

First, in terms of cost, domestic acetic acid continued to decline last week, with a decline of 1.44%. During the week, the quotation fell first and then stabilized, the downstream demand continued to be weak, the market was dominated by just buying, the transaction of new orders in the market was insufficient, the acetic acid manufacturers negotiated shipment, and the transaction focus shifted downward. Most domestic acetic acid plants operated normally, and the devices of individual enterprises in East China were overhauled. However, the enterprise’s early inventory accumulated, the overall supply of goods in the market was still sufficient, and the operator’s mentality remained wait-and-see.

In addition, from the perspective of upstream n-butanol, according to the monitoring of business society, as of December 9, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 7966 yuan / ton, Compared with the price on December 5 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8200 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 234 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.85%. Since the beginning of the month, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong has been running downward all the time, and the decline of acetic acid and n-butanol prices has dragged down the improvement of butyl acetate Market.

In terms of supply and demand, the operating rate of major manufacturers was high last week and the market supply was sufficient. Last week, the prices of large factories were generally reduced by about 300 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s shipment speed is weak, and the price support psychology is weakened, which has a significant impact on the market. In addition, traders are not active in taking goods, and downstream factories on the demand side are only limited to just need to buy. Market trading is not active, demand follow-up is insufficient, and the market has not substantially improved.

Future forecast: it is difficult to say that the cost side is good in the near future, and the supply side also shows certain pressure. The manufacturer will accumulate the risk of inventory in the later stage. It is expected that the recent ethyl acetate Market may still decline.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the above figure, the price of domestic hydrochloric acid decreased slightly this week, and the quotation decreased from 320.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 300.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 6.25%, a year-on-year decrease of 3.23% compared with the same period last year. Overall, the domestic hydrochloric acid market fell slightly this week. On December 9, the commodity index of hydrochloric acid was 78.95, the same as yesterday, down 42.74% from the highest point of 137.89 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 339.10% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid quoted 400 yuan / ton this weekend, which fell by 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The price of synthetic hydrochloric acid from Wen Shui is 280 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Dezhou Maihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 60 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid quoted 160 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Xiangcheng Sanan hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market fell slightly, weakening the support for hydrochloric acid. The price of downstream polyaluminium chloride first fell and then rose. The quotation increased from 2356.25 yuan / ton last weekend to 2362.50 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.27%, up 31.98% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride decreased slightly, and the quotation decreased from 1170.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 1132.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 3.21%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream products are not enthusiastic about purchasing hydrochloric acid, which has a negative impact on the price of hydrochloric acid.

Future forecast

The market of upstream liquid chlorine has fallen recently, the cost support is general, the market of downstream polyaluminium chloride and ammonium chloride has declined slightly, and the willingness to purchase downstream has weakened. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly suffered a slight shock and decline recently.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1896 yuan / ton on December 6, and 1896 yuan / ton on December 10. The price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The overall market situation of ammonium sulfate this week was temporarily stable, and prices were slightly adjusted in some areas. The supply of ammonium sulfate is stable this week. The downstream demand is weak, there is resistance to high prices, and enterprises adjust prices flexibly. The downstream procurement is not active, and the trading volume of ammonium sulfate is limited. At present, the market is deadlocked. For coking grade ammonium sulfate this week, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1800-1850 yuan / ton, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Hebei is 1750-1800 yuan / ton, and the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shanxi is 1700-1760 yuan / ton. This week’s domestic ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 2100-2150 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer market has not fluctuated much this week. The market of urea, the raw material of compound fertilizer, rose steadily, and the price of monoammonium phosphate continued to decline. At present, the compound fertilizer market is mainly stable, the demand for raw materials is insufficient, and more replenishment is required. The winter storage market is weak, and it is difficult to improve the demand for raw material ammonium sulfate in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that at present, the ammonium sulfate Market is not good, the downstream just needs replenishment, and the market supply and demand is balanced. However, due to the weak demand side, enterprises are under pressure to ship, and ammonium sulfate is expected to decline slightly in the short term.