In December, both raw materials were in a bad state, and the epoxy resin market fell significantly. According to the monitoring data of business society, on December 1, the offer of liquid resin Market in East China was 27500-28000 yuan / ton, the offer of Huangshan solid epoxy resin market was 22000-22500 yuan / ton, and the offer of liquid resin Market in East China fell 2000 yuan and 25500-26000 yuan / ton on December 9, The market offer of Huangshan solid epoxy resin is 21000 yuan / ton, and at present, the decline is difficult to stop, and it is difficult to have favorable support upstream and downstream of the industrial chain. The epoxy resin market continued to decline. On the one hand, the double raw materials were bad, on the other hand, the downstream demand was poor.

In December, the domestic bisphenol a market continued to decline until the market stopped falling and rebounded on the 8th. The main reason is that the market spot resources are limited and the offer of cargo holders pushed up, but the actual purchase volume on the floor is very limited and the market transaction is flat. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic bisphenol a market offer was 16875 yuan / ton on December 1, 15575 yuan / ton on December 7 and 15900 yuan / ton on December 9, with a cumulative decrease of 5.78% and an amplitude of 7.7%. The fluctuation of bisphenol a market is mainly affected by the start-up of domestic factories and the production of new units, bidding and changes in downstream demand. Short term BPA interval adjustment operation.

Epichlorohydrin market fell. At present, the price of raw propylene is rising slightly, the raw glycerol market is weak, the cost support is relatively general, the demand side support is weak, the downstream consumption inventory or long-term contract is mainly, the inquiry purchase intention is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market transaction is weak, and the price of epichlorohydrin is lower. On December 8, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 15566.67 yuan / ton, down 3.51% compared with the price on December 1, 20.85% compared with the price on November 8, and 1.27% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, with limited cost support and weak demand, the market atmosphere is light. It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may focus on weak consolidation, and more attention should be paid to the guidance of market news.

Device: the overall operating rate of liquid resin is about 60%; The operating rate of solid resin is 4-5%.

From the perspective of the chemical industry, it is still in the downward channel, but from the perspective of the energy end, the decline slows down. From the perspective of the epoxy resin market, the decline of dual raw materials slows down and has a slight correction, but there is a lack of positive support for the continuous upward trend. The new capacity of raw material bisphenol A and the situation of domestic factories still need to be paid special attention. The new capacity of epoxy resin market has been announced continuously, and the proportion of price in the market has increased. Business analysts believe that in the later stage, they pay more attention to the impact of industrial policies. According to the current situation, the epoxy resin market may continue to bottom in the short term in December.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price was 3550 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3500 yuan / ton at the weekend, with the price down 1.41%. The price of baking soda maintained the consolidation trend this week. On December 2, the commodity index of baking soda was 232.30, the same as yesterday, down 1.50% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 163.17% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the demand in the downstream market is generally in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 3200-3500 yuan / ton. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 3400-3500 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is general. It is expected that the price will be adjusted in the later stage.

Raw materials: soda ash prices are weak this week. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the week was 3387.5 yuan / ton, and the average market price on Friday was about 3200 yuan / ton, down 5.54% and up 110.25% over the same period last year. The mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 3200-3400 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 3300-3500 yuan / ton. On the whole, the short-term soda ash price is weak, mainly running. The manufacturer actively shipped, and the actual transaction was average. Data show that the overall operating rate of soda ash during the week was 81.91%, up 6.82% month on month. During the week, the output of soda ash was 582900 tons, an increase of 48500 tons. The unit was started and resumed within the week, and the output increased.

Demand: in the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is general in the near future, and the actual shipment is general. As for raw materials, according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is weak, the operation market is in general, the market atmosphere is general, and the inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased. Downstream glass is mainly purchased on demand, with strong wait-and-see mood. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda in medicine, textile and food is generally in the near future. Generally speaking, the price of baking soda will continue to adjust the operation market in the short term, depending on the demand of the downstream market.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China fell from 5266.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 5200.00 yuan / ton on December 3, down 66.67 yuan / ton, down 1.27%, up 40.54% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell slightly this week, and there is still a downward trend at the weekend. On December 5, the calcium carbide commodity index was 136.24, the same as yesterday, down 35.81% from the highest point of 212.23 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 145.52% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The upstream cost support has been strengthened, and the downstream demand has declined

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone quoted 5200 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zhonglian calcium carbide quoted 5100 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quotation this weekend was 5300 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan rose slightly this week. The quotation of Shenmu small materials this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which is 30 yuan / ton higher than that last weekend; The quotation of CMCC this weekend is 1700 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; The quotation of bulk materials this weekend is 1730 yuan / ton, which has increased by 30 yuan / ton compared with last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials rose slightly and the cost support was strengthened, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell slightly this week. This week, the price of PVC fell from 9340.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 8980.00 yuan / ton on December 3, a decrease of 3.58%, an increase of 8.36% over the same period last year. PVC prices fell slightly this week, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market has insufficient power to rise, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the future

In the first ten days of December, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon rose slightly and the cost support of calcium carbide strengthened, but the downstream PVC market began to decline slightly and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in early December.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fell continuously this week. On November 26, the price of mixed xylene was 6050 yuan / ton; On Friday (December 3), the price was 5740 yuan / ton, down 5.12% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 54.3%.

2、 Analysis and review

This week, the international oil price fluctuated and fell, the mixed xylene in Asia fell broadly, the external news was bad, and the mixed xylene price followed the decline. Weak downstream demand and light market negotiation atmosphere; And by the impact of low-cost supply, the shipment pressure increases.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market rebounded slightly after a wide decline this week. On Friday (December 3), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was US $692.5/t, down US $70 / T, or 9.18%, compared with November 26; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $717 / T, down US $72 / T or 9.13% month on month on November 26.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. Last week, a new variant of COVID-19, which was discovered in South Africa and other countries, triggered a sell-off of financial assets, exacerbating concerns about oil demand and oil prices. The OPEC + meeting within the week decided to maintain the original production increase plan and boost oil prices. Brent fell $2.84 / barrel, or 3.91% this week; WTI fell $1.89/barrel, or 2.77%.

Downstream, in the PX market, the domestic PX price fell this week. On Friday (December 3), the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 6700 yuan / ton, down 8.22% from the beginning of the week and up 55.81% year-on-year. As of December 3, the closing prices in Asia were USD 795-797 / T FOB Korea and USD 813-815 / T CFR China.

In the ox market, the price of ox in East China fell this week. On Friday (December 3), the price of ox in East China was 6600 yuan / ton, down 4.35% from last week and up 17.44% from the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline in Shandong fell this week. The price was 8066 yuan / ton on November 26 and 7886.8 yuan / ton on December 3, down 2.22% from last week and up 47.11% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, the market continues to pay attention to the impact of the mutant strain Omicron on crude oil and economy. OPEC + maintains the original planned increase in production or continues to boost oil prices. It is expected that the oil price will fluctuate in the short term and there is room for rebound. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

In the short term, crude oil maintained a weak trend and lacked support for mixed xylene market. Mixed xylene port inventory continued to rise, the downstream demand side was insufficient, and the negotiation was light. Overall, the trend of mixed xylene will continue to decline weakly next week. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, domestic vitamin C fell slightly this week. The average price of food grade vitamin C was 48 yuan / kg at the beginning of the week and 47.67 yuan / kg at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.69%.

According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic vitamin C market is running smoothly. At present, the mainstream price of food grade is 46-48 yuan / kg, and that of feed grade is 42-44 yuan / kg. Most production enterprises stop reporting, the market supply is sufficient and the demand is general.

Upstream: the price of corn fluctuates slightly. It is expected that the overall price of corn will continue to be weak and downward during the first ten days of December, but it does not rule out the interval rebound in some markets due to the impact of weather on transportation.

The price of vitamin A remained stable this week, and the weekly average price of feed grade vitamin A remained stable at 295 yuan / kg. The mainstream price of vitamin A is 280-295 yuan / kg. It is said that Zhejiang medicine raised the price to 360 yuan / kg on November 5. Under the guidance of price adjustment by large manufacturers, the market performance was strong, manufacturers stopped reporting, and traders supported the price.

The vitamin E market is running smoothly this week. The average price of feed grade vitamin E is stable at 90 yuan / kg, and the mainstream market quotation is around 90-95 yuan / kg. On October 18, XinHeCheng raised the price to 98 yuan / kg, and on November 5, Zhejiang Pharmaceutical raised the price to 108 yuan / kg. The price increased, the middlemen supported the price, and the downstream demand follow-up was OK.

Future forecast

Vitamin analysts of the chemical branch of business society believe that: Overall, the overall market of vitamins tends to be stable. In the future, pay close attention to the opening and parking status and delivery of enterprises.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price of acetic acid first rose and then fell in November. The quotation of acetic acid at the beginning of the month was 6730 yuan / ton, and the price of acetic acid at the end of the month was 6680 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.74%. The price increased by 96.47% year-on-year, and the highest price in the month was 7230 yuan / ton, an increase of 7.43% compared with the beginning of the month.

As of November 30, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

region November 1st November 17th November 30th

South China 7000-7100 yuan / ton 7150-7250 yuan / ton 6600-6700 yuan / ton

North China 6700-6900 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton 6500-6600 yuan / ton

Shandong region 6650-6750 yuan / ton 7000-7150 yuan / ton 6400-6550 yuan / ton

Jiangsu region 6700-6900 yuan / ton 7000-7200 yuan / ton 6500-6600 yuan / ton

Zhejiang region 6800-7000 yuan / ton 7200-7300 yuan / ton 6600-6700 yuan / ton

In November, the acetic acid market rose first and then fell. In the first ten days of market consolidation, the inventory of acetic acid enterprises in the field was digested smoothly, the intention to support the price was strong, the quotation rose continuously, the active purchase in the downstream increased, and the acetic acid manufacturers actively shipped to promote the upward movement of the market price. The domestic acetic acid plant operated normally in the last ten days. Although there were enterprise plant maintenance, there were many goods prepared in the early stage to maintain the sufficient supply of goods in the acetic acid market. The downstream demand entered the off-season, and the market purchase was just needed. The acetic acid manufacturers negotiated shipment, the transaction focus shifted downward, and the market price continued to decline.

The downstream ethyl acetate market fluctuated downward in November. As of November 30, the quotation was 9550 yuan / ton, a decrease of 1.04% over the price of 9650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the demand for ethyl acetate fluctuated little, the market remained rigid and stable, and the price rise and fall were mostly affected by the cost and supply side. During the month, the main manufacturers of ethyl acetate gradually increased from early maintenance to commencement. The enterprises adjusted the quotation according to their own shipment, and the ethyl acetate market gradually decreased.

The market outlook of acetic acid is expected. The acetic acid analysts of business society believe that the downstream demand continues to be weak, the domestic acetic acid market is in sufficient supply, and the situation of oversupply will remain in operation for a short time. It is expected that the market outlook of acetic acid will be weak, and the specific attention will be paid to the downstream transaction.

DOTP prices fell in November

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the DOTP price fluctuated and fell in November, and the DOTP market fell. As of November 30, the price of DOTP was 11600 yuan / ton, down 11.95% from 13175 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (November 1); In November, the DOTP price fluctuated and fell, and the DOTP market fell.

The price of isooctanol fell in November

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of isooctanol fell in November, and the activity of the isooctanol market was general. In the middle of the year, the downstream procurement was bargain hunting and replenishment, and the price of isooctanol recovered briefly. The overall price of isooctanol fluctuated and fell, the decline of isooctanol narrowed and slowed down, the cost of plasticizer DOTP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOTP increased.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell in November

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the decline of international crude oil price weakens the cost support of PTA, the performance of terminal demand orders is poor, PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle, the demand follow-up is insufficient, and PTA price shocks are weak. The raw material market weakened and the cost of DOTP decreased, which was bad for the DOTP market.

PVC market stopped falling and wanted to rise in November

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC market hit the bottom and rebounded in November. In November, the PVC market first fell broadly, and then maintained a volatile trend. The price rebounded in late October, but it was difficult to recover the early decline. The overall trend in the month showed a downward trend and the focus shifted downward. In the short term, when there is no obvious change in PVC fundamentals, the price continues to maintain a volatile trend. The PVC market fluctuated and stabilized, which was limited to the DOTP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOTP data analyst at business agency, believes that affected by the weakening of crude oil and poor demand, PTA prices fluctuated and fell, isooctanol prices fell sharply, DOTP costs fell, and DOTP downward pressure increased; On the demand side, the PVC price fluctuated and stabilized, the PVC market was weak and temporarily stable, the demand for plasticizers was general, the upward momentum of DOTP weakened, and the downward pressure increased. Overall, the cost of plasticizer DOTP has decreased, the demand is general, the future rising power of plasticizer DOTP has weakened, the downward pressure has increased, and the price of DOTP is expected to be adjusted by weak shocks.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of domestic vitamin C decreased slightly in November. The average price of vitamin C at the beginning of the month was 48.67 yuan / kg, and the average price at the end of the month was 48 yuan / kg, a monthly decrease of 1.38%.

According to the price monitoring of business club, the vitamin C market operated smoothly as a whole in November, mainly through negotiation of market transaction price. The downstream demand is general, and the maintenance enterprises resume production one after another. Affected by the double limit, the production and sales of vitamin C market are weak, and the price is weak and downward. In November, the market demand was still insufficient. Meanwhile, in October 2021, China’s export of vitamin C was 15700 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 5.13% and a month on month increase of 33.8%. The average unit price was US $4.43/kg, with a year-on-year increase of 18.1%. The export data continued to decrease, further bearish the vitamin C market.

In November, the price of vitamin A fell slightly, with an average price of 280 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 295 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 1.12%. In November, the vitamin a market was strong, some high prices were corrected, the overall market was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase, and the demand was stable. According to the vitamin A export data in October, China’s vitamin A export volume in October 2021 was 504.84 tons, an increase of 106.3% year-on-year and 22.8% month on month. Export data rose sharply, boosting the market.

In November, the price of vitamin E was stable and small, with an average price of 90.33 yuan / kg at the beginning of the month and 90 yuan / kg at the end of the month, a decrease of 0.37%. At present, the ve market price is 90-95 yuan / kg, and the European market price has risen to 11-11.5 euros / kg. The market maintained a stable trend. In October 2021, China’s export volume of vitamin E was 7368.3 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 62% and a month on month increase of 16.3%. With the support of domestic and foreign demand, the price of vitamin E was strong, and the news of maintenance and price increase constantly came out, which benefited the vitamin E market.

Future forecast

The vitamin analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that: on the whole, the vitamin market is currently in a stable state. In the future, if there is no sudden event, the price will run smoothly, and pay close attention to the manufacturer’s opening and parking and market news.

1、 Price data

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7838.25 yuan / ton, down 0.16% from 7850.75 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan / ton.

As of November 28, the mainstream ex factory average price of domestic ground refined straight run naphtha was 7322.50 yuan / ton, down 4.09% from 7635.00 yuan / ton on November 22. The actual transaction price of ground refined straight run naphtha was about 7200-7400 yuan / ton.

On November 28, the naphtha commodity index was 96.74, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.39% from the highest point of 103.34 in the cycle (2021-10-25), and up 129.02% from the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of hydrotreated naphtha in the local refinery increased first and then decreased. The price of straight run naphtha fell sharply. The refinery will reduce the price and ship the goods. The demand for olefins and aromatics in the terminal is weak, and the transaction is general.

Upstream: international crude oil prices rose first and then declined this week. U.S. President Biden sought ways to reduce gasoline prices for U.S. consumers, repeatedly mentioned the idea of releasing U.S. strategic oil reserves, and called on China, Japan and South Korea to release crude oil reserves. As soon as the news came out, crude oil prices fell sharply. On the other hand, at present, the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) production increase policy is still relatively conservative, and they still do not show the willingness to expand the scale of production increase under the pressure from the United States. In particular, the market is worried that if the US government continues to suppress oil prices and make oil prices fall sharply, OPEC + may even consider stopping production increase to offset the adverse impact of the decline in oil prices on the recovery of global oil capital expenditure.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of toluene rose this week. The price was 6370.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6210.20 yuan / ton on November 22, up 2.57%. Mixed xylene rose this week. The price of mixed xylene was 6100.00 yuan / ton on November 28 and 6020.00 yuan / ton on November 22, up 1.33%. In the PX market, the market price trend of p-xylene was temporarily stable this week. As of the 28th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 47th week of 2021 (11.22-11.26), there are 8 commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 1 commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.25%), WTI crude oil (3.23%) and asphalt (2.77%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 3 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were coking coal (- 10.84%), coke (- 7.05%) and petroleum coke (- 7.01%). The average rise and fall this week was – 0.56%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the energy analysts of business society, the refinery has cut prices and shipped goods recently, the demand for olefins and aromatics at the terminal is weak, the transaction is general, the downstream procurement is cautious, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the refining of naphtha in the near future may focus on the weak.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell in November, and the spot prices of various brands decreased. As of November 26, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of China viscosity by the sample enterprises was about 15966.67 yuan / ton, up or down by – 8.94% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream caprolactam, the price fell this month. During the month, some enterprises restarted caprolactam units, increased supply and increased inventories of enterprises and society. The price of raw material pure benzene is weak and the cost support is insufficient. Downstream enterprises just need to purchase. Near the end of the month, the spot price of caprolactam has fallen near the cost line, the price stabilization attitude of enterprises is obvious, and the decline began to tighten.

The price of upstream caprolactam fell recently, and the cost support of PA6 collapsed. The overall operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plants is more than 60%, and the current profitability of polymerization plants is general. In terms of demand, double limit and other environmental protection policies affect the load of end enterprises. In addition, the current inventory position of PA6 of downstream users is acceptable, the purchase intention is not high, and there is a lot of wait-and-see atmosphere in the venue.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that caprolactam continued to decline in November, weakening the cost of PA6, and the spot price of PA6 continued to fall. The terminal demand is weak, the on-site transaction is poor, the buyer’s wait-and-see mood is increased, and the bearish mood in the future is increased. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may still fall slightly in the short term.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2844.44 yuan / ton, up 1.99% from 2788.89 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8.70% year-on-year.

The price of fluorite rose this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the order situation of fluorite was ok, the installation operation of merchants in the venue declined, the supply of fluorite in the venue was slightly tight, and the price in the venue rose. With the decrease of temperature, some fluorite manufacturers installed parking devices, and the operation of mines and flotation in the yard declined. The delivery of goods in the fluorite yard was ok, and the price trend of fluorite market rose. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market price remained high this week, and the downstream terminal mainly purchased on demand. As of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiation in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2750-2900 yuan / ton, Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has risen.

The market price trend of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream of fluorite remained at a high level. As of the weekend, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid was 14010 yuan / ton. The high market price of hydrofluoric acid had a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite increased. The price trend of domestic downstream refrigerant products has dropped, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field is still not high. Recently, the sales of the automobile industry are normal, and the refrigerant market has dropped at a high level, but the decline is not large. In terms of demand, the refrigerant industry mainly purchases on demand, and the trend has declined. The overall trend of the refrigerant market has dropped, and the price of chloroform has fallen, which has reduced the cost of the refrigerant industry. At present, the price trend of refrigerant R22 is declining. The start-up of major mainstream refrigerant manufacturers is still not high, and the market supply is normal, but the demand is not improved. The demand in R22 market application field is reduced, and enterprises reduce prices for sales. The price of mainstream manufacturers has a downward trend. Up to now, the market price of R22 is in the range of 25000-26000 yuan / ton. The domestic price of R134a fell slightly, the price of trichloroethylene remained, the cost was under pressure, the phenomenon of closing and stopping the report of R134a increased, the market price was slightly corrected, and the trading focus changed little. At present, the market quotation of R134a is in the range of 48000-53000 yuan / ton, the high price transaction is weak, the market sentiment is poor, the enterprise’s eagerness to ship is obvious, the actual transaction is mostly profitable, the downstream refrigerant market has a downward trend, and the fluorite price rises due to tight supply.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has a downward trend. Recently, the supply of hydrofluoric acid market is still tight, but the price of hydrofluoric acid remains high, and the supply of fluorite in the field has declined. Chen Ling, an analyst of business society, believes that the market price of fluorite is still supported by positive support in the short term, and the market price trend is dominated by a slight increase.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price trend of p-xylene this week was temporarily stable. As of the 19th, the ex factory price of domestic p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 69.77%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend remains stable. The closing price of international crude oil fell, and the external price of PX fell. As of the 18th, the closing prices were US $884-886 / T FOB Korea and US $902-904 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia was relatively stable. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia was more than 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia was normal, and the external closing price of PX fell slightly, The domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The crude oil price trend fell this week. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.41/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $81.24/barrel. Macroscopically, under the background of the continuous strengthening of the US dollar, it dragged down the reconstruction of oil price valuation. More importantly, some changes have been expected in the fundamentals of supply and demand. Therefore, the previous strong energy demand and tight supply have gradually changed into the improvement of supply and demand caused by the repeated epidemic in Europe and the expectation of the global release of oil reserves, and the oil price has continued to fall. As the Russian pipeline Beixi No. 2 has changed again, the delay and the decline in transmission volume are expected to lead to another surge in European natural gas prices. Crude oil supply is expected to remain tight. In the later stage, it still depends on whether the release of global oil reserves can make up for the gap, and the supply side variables are still changing. In addition, there will be a long short game in demand. In the process of global economic recovery, energy demand is still strong. However, repeated outbreaks and rising inflation in the United States will also suppress demand. The decline of oil price has a certain negative impact on the domestic petrochemical market, and the price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

The downstream PTA market price trend fell this week. As of the 19th, the average PTA market price was 4700-4800 yuan / ton, and the PTA price fell by 3.8% this week. The PTA Market of raw materials declined. The 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical failed to restart last weekend. It is planned to restart around November 19. At present, the operating rate of the industry is maintained at about 79%. The inventory of production enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. At present, PTA inventory continues to increase, and the social inventory is about 3.7245 million tons. At present, the power rationing restrictions in many places in China have been cancelled. Although some conditions have improved, the operating rate of polyester plants has not rebounded rapidly as expected, and remained at about 83% as of November 18. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the main textile bases. The comprehensive start-up rate of looms is around 66%. The start-up of polyester and weaving is still at a low level compared with the first half of the year. The procurement enthusiasm is not high. The market situation of the textile industry is poor, and the market price trend of p-xylene is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current crude oil price is slightly lower, but the cost side support begins to weaken, the downstream PTA and textile market is poor, PTA stocks are accumulated, and the terminal demand is weak. It is expected that there is room for the market price of p-xylene to fall in the later stage.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 2620.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2562.50 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 2.19%, an increase of 41.31% over the same period last year. On the whole, the urea market has twists and turns this week, with an overall downward trend.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is general, and the urea supply is insufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea fell this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 2750 yuan / ton this weekend, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, down 100 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2500 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea fell slightly this week as a whole: the price of LNG fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 7403.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7333.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.95%, a year-on-year increase of 114.63% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1086.25 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 76.41% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell sharply. The quotation fell from 4896.67 yuan / ton last weekend to 4380.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 10.55%, a year-on-year increase of 43.61% over the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea fell slightly this week, and the quotation fell from 18400.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 17533.33 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 4.71%. On the whole, the upstream and downstream industrial chain of urea is down as a whole, which has a negative impact on the price of urea.

From the perspective of demand: the demand is general, and the agricultural demand ends; The industry is just in need, the recommendation of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the downstream compound fertilizer plant has not started to purchase urea on a large scale, the inventory of melamine enterprises is under pressure, and the focus of market negotiation is weakened. In terms of supply, urea enters the centralized maintenance period, the supply decreases, and the daily output of urea is less than 130000 tons. On the whole, the urea cost support is insufficient, the downstream demand is general, the market trading atmosphere is general, and the urea supply is reduced.

The future price of urea is bearish

In late November, the domestic urea market may fluctuate and fall slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that at present, urea has entered the centralized maintenance period and the supply is tight, but the promotion of winter storage of chemical fertilizer is slow, the prices of upstream natural gas and coal have decreased slightly, the cost support is insufficient, and the future urea market price may fluctuate and fall slightly.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price fell sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market fell from 12333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11100.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 10.81%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market fell sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers fell sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 11100 yuan / ton, which decreased by 2000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 11000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1000 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde fell slightly this week. The quotation fell from 7897.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7600.83 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.75%, up 9.36% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, which had a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde due to the impact of supply and demand. From the downstream industrial chain, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua neopentyl glycol this weekend is 18000 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week. The neopentyl glycol market fell slightly and the spot market was tight, which had a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The overall trend of isobutyraldehyde market in late November may decline slightly. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market fell slightly, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm weakened. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may decline slightly in the short term under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic glycine market price remained stable this week, and the average price of industrial grade glycine remained stable at 29666 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the monitoring of the business community, the glycine market continues to stop reporting. The quotation of industrial glycine in Hebei is 35000 yuan / ton, mainly based on detailed discussion of actual orders. Shandong Hongtai resumes driving, can receive new orders, and will not make an offer for the time being. The market turnover is acceptable, the downstream is affected by double limit, the commencement is reduced, but the glycine procurement is relatively stable.

Downstream products: this week, the price of glyphosate technical drug exceeded 80000 yuan / ton, and the maximum price rose to 85000 yuan / ton. Affected by the double limit, glyphosate enterprises did not start enough, and the overall production capacity decreased. Although the prices of raw materials such as yellow phosphorus, acetic acid and have been corrected to a certain extent, the tight demand for glyphosate is difficult to change. Enterprise orders are scheduled to the end of the year, and the price is expected to continue to rise.

3、 Future forecast

Glycine analysts of business society believe that the current demand for glycine is supported, the price remains high, and the short-term market is mainly stable.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market showed a downward trend today (November 18). The average price in the spot market was 4789 yuan / ton, down 2.98% from the previous day and up 47.07% year-on-year. PTA futures 2201 closed at 4834, down 144, or 2.89%.

In terms of units, the 1.5 million ton unit of Honggang Petrochemical failed to restart last weekend. It is planned to restart around November 19. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains around 79%. The inventory of production enterprises has increased significantly, and the inventory accumulation trend is expected to continue. At present, PTA inventory continues to increase, and the social inventory is about 3.7245 million tons.

Crude oil prices plummeted to a six week low after the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) and the International Energy Agency (IEA) warned against oversupply, compounded by the resurgence of the European epidemic, the surge of new cases exacerbated the expectation of lower market demand and put pressure on oil prices. On November 17, the international oil price fell sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $78.36/barrel and that of Brent crude oil futures was US $80.28/barrel.

At present, the power rationing restrictions in many places in China have been cancelled. Although some conditions have improved, the operating rate of polyester plants has not rebounded rapidly as expected, and remained at about 83% as of November 17. Jiangsu and Zhejiang are the main textile bases, the comprehensive starting rate of looms is around 66%, and the start-up of polyester and weaving is still at a low level compared with the first half of the year. The price remained stable today. Polyester POY (150D / 48F), a mainstream factory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, quoted 7450-7900 yuan / ton, and the market was in a strong wait-and-see mood.

Business analysts believe that the short-term crude oil market is anxious, the supply-demand game is dominant, and the cost support has weakened. In addition, the performance of terminal demand orders is poor, and PTA continues to gradually enter the inventory accumulation cycle. However, under the background of low processing cost, the factory has a maintenance plan. One PTA production line of Hengli Petrochemical plans to shut down for maintenance in the near future, involving a production capacity of 2.5 million tons. Therefore, on the whole, PTA prices will remain narrow downward.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of mixed xylene fluctuated and fell this week. On November 5, the price of mixed xylene was 6340 yuan / ton; On Friday (November 12), the price was 6220 yuan / ton, down 1.89% from last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 79.77%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fluctuated on the cost side, the guidance was not strong, the market focus turned to the demand side, the downstream demand was weak, coupled with the increase of cargo supply, mixed xylene continued to decline during the week. In the middle of the week, affected by the weather, the logistics in Shandong was blocked and the price rose slightly.

In the external market, the mixed xylene in the external market rose slightly this week and fell broadly. On Friday (November 12), the price of mixed xylene imported from South Korea was 790.5 US dollars / ton, down 22 US dollars / ton or 2.71% month on week compared with November 5; The reference price of domestic imported mixed xylene was US $817 / T, down US $20 / T or 2.39% month on month on November 5.

Crude oil fell sharply this week. U.S. crude oil inventories continued to increase, the U.S. dollar jumped, and OPEC + lowered its oil demand forecast for the fourth quarter, suppressing oil prices. However, the end of international travel restrictions in the United States and the adoption of the trillion dollar infrastructure bill gave a positive boost to the market. The demand for crude oil may grow, and the market is worried about supply or shortage. On November 5, Brent fell 0.57 USD / barrel, or 0.69%; WTI fell US $0.48/barrel, or 0.59%.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price continued to stabilize this week, with the price at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 69.77% over the same period last year. As of November 12, the closing prices in Asia were US $905-907 / T FOB Korea and US $923-925 / T CFR China.

In the ox market, the ox price in East China stabilized this week. On Friday (November 12), the ox price in East China was 7200 yuan / ton, an increase of 63.64% over the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, gasoline prices in Shandong fell this week. On November 12, the price was 7810.8 yuan / ton, down 0.96% from last week and up 48.81% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, tight crude oil supply still exists, short-term long short game, and the trend of crude oil fluctuates. Continue to pay attention to the impact of the global epidemic, OPEC + decisions on crude oil production, the inventory dynamics of crude oil and refined oil in the United States, and the global economic situation on crude oil prices.

The trend of crude oil fluctuated, the upward momentum weakened, and the support for mixed xylene weakened. Downstream PX device maintenance, demand softened again. On the whole, the stalemate of mixed xylene negotiation is still, and it is possible to continue to decline. Pay attention to mixed xylene port and plant dynamics, downstream market and plant dynamics, as well as the impact of crude oil, external market and other trends on mixed xylene prices.

The lead market (11.5-11.12) surged this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15475 yuan / ton last weekend and 15500 yuan / ton this weekend, up 0.16% this week.

The commodity price K-bar chart uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The lead price shown in the figure above has maintained a volatile trend for four consecutive weeks.

The trend of Lun lead market fluctuated this week. The mainstream range was between 2310-2385 US dollars / ton. At the beginning of the week, the US dollar fell, and the metal market was boosted and rose slightly. Later, as the US dollar market stopped falling and rebounded, the base metals began to operate under pressure, and Lun lead began to fall. In terms of inventory, LME inventory fell by about 600 tons during the week, which partially boosted the market. During the week, the trend of Shanghai lead fluctuated. It rose at the beginning of the week and fluctuated in the middle of the week. At the weekend, it was boosted by low inventory and other positive factors, and rose again.

The spot market mainly follows the trend of Shanghai lead and is dominated by shocks. At present, the overall inventory of lead is still high, and the impact of power restriction policy on the overall market is gradually weak. The demand brought by storage enterprises’ sprint for annual tasks basically offsets the output growth brought by re production manufacturers. Although supported by downstream demand, it is still dominated by consumption of current inventory.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 45th week of 2021 (11.8-11.12), there are 16 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the non-ferrous sector, including 1 kind of commodity rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.5% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were silver (5.31%), aluminum (3.02%) and nickel (2.76%). There are 3 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 9.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were silicon (- 10.61%), antimony (- 5.13%) and praseodymium (- 0.92%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.57%, and most of the nonferrous metals markets rose.

The impact of power rationing policy has been ignored. The recovery of primary lead enterprises is good, the overall supply side is good, the recent demand recovery of downstream storage enterprises is good, and the supply and demand is good, but the high overall inventory is still the main factor restricting the rise of lead price. In the past month, under the restriction of demand recovery but high inventory, the lead price has continued to fluctuate. Lead prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of November 15, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 25666.67 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan / ton lower than the average price of 26333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (8th), a decrease of 2.53% during the cycle and an increase of 81.18% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, as of November 15, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 50000 yuan / ton, which was 666 yuan lower than the average price of 50666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of last week (8th), a decrease of 1.32% in the cycle and 229.67% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of refrigerant R22 fell slightly and the market weakened. Last week, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid rose steadily and slightly, but the chloroform market fell sharply, the cost support weakened, coupled with the continued sluggish demand and the poor shipment of cargo holders, so they began to reduce the price. The ex factory prices of mainstream enterprises such as Juhua and Dongyue have not been greatly adjusted yet, and still hold the previous quotation, but the market focus began to decline. Up to now, the market quotation of R22 is still in the range of 23500-28000 yuan / ton, about 24500-27000 yuan / ton in Shandong, about 23500-25000 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 24500-25000 yuan / ton in Hunan and about 24000-25000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu. The prices in various places are stable.

Recently, the price of refrigerant R134a fell slightly and the market weakened. Last week, the price of hydrofluoric acid, the raw material, rose steadily and slightly, with acceptable support, but there was no obvious cash withdrawal in the auto market. There was insufficient gas purchase in the downstream, the demand side continued to be weak, and there were few high price transactions. The ex factory price of mainstream enterprises remained high. Some dealers reduced their quotation significantly, with the price as low as 45000 yuan / ton. They reduced the price sharply to seek good sales, and the focus shifted downward. Up to now, the market price of R134a is in the range of 45000-55000 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 45000-51000 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 45000-46000 yuan / ton, and the price in Jiangsu is about 45000-51000 yuan / ton. The prices in various places are gradually reduced.

In terms of raw materials, on November 15, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was tight, the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid was higher, the recent price trend of fluorite was stable, which had a certain supporting impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, but the overall trend was stable, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, and the actual demand changed little, Recently, the refrigerant market has a downward trend, and it is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may be stable.

Methane chloride, according to the data monitoring of business society, the trichloromethane market fell sharply this week (11.8-11.12), and the price was 5175 yuan / ton as of November 12. Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that the commencement of methane chloride unit is higher than that in the early stage, and the cost is low. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

Business community refrigerant analysts believe that the current demand is poor, the shipment of goods holders is not smooth, the market trading is negative, the price reduction sales profit shipment, and the market focus moves downward. It is expected that R22 and R134a may have further downward expectations in the short term.

The price of plasticizer DOP stabilized after a slight drop this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the DOP price fluctuated slightly this week and stabilized after falling, and the overall DOP market fell weakly this week. As of November 12, the DOP price was 12025 yuan / ton, down 200 yuan / ton or 1.64% from 12225 yuan / ton on November 5 last weekend; The DOP market was weak and fell.

Isooctanol prices fell this week

According to the price monitoring of business society, the price of isooctanol fell slightly this week. Under the national macro-control, coal related products are easy to fall but difficult to rise. This week, affected by the decline in the price of raw material coal to syngas, the cost of isooctanol decreased, the price of isooctanol decreased, the cost of plasticizer DOP decreased, and the downward pressure of DOP increased.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the phthalic anhydride market changed strongly this week, and the phthalic anhydride price fell sharply. The market of phthalic anhydride is general, the manufacturer’s operation is low, the delivery situation is general, the support for the rise of phthalic anhydride is insufficient, the cost of DOP decreases, and the downward pressure of DOP increases.

PVC prices stopped falling and rebounded this week

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PVC market stopped falling and rebounded this week, and the bank’s desire rose. The PVC disk was strong, the futures PVC price fluctuated and rose, which boosted the rising atmosphere of the spot market, the enterprise quotation was tentatively increased, the market trading atmosphere gradually improved, and the focus began to move upward. PVC market rose, which was good for DOP market.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business society, believes that the support of DOP raw materials is not available this week. The prices of isooctanol and phthalic anhydride have fallen, the cost of DOP has fallen, the downward pressure of DOP has increased, the price of PVC has stopped falling and rebounded, the demand for DOP has improved, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream customers has warmed up, and the upward momentum of DOP has increased. Generally speaking, DOP costs have decreased and demand has warmed up. It is expected that DOP prices will stabilize in the future.

Recent price trend of calcium carbide

As can be seen from the above figure, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell sharply this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China decreased from 7433.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 5600.00 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1833.33 yuan / ton, down 24.66%, up 93.33% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Overall, the calcium carbide market fell sharply this week.

Upstream cost support weakened and downstream demand fell sharply

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganon quoted 5300 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, which fell 2200 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion quoted 5500 yuan / ton of calcium carbide this weekend, down 1700 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide quoted 6000 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1600 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream raw material market, the ex factory quotation of Lantan fell sharply this week. The quotation of Shenmu small material this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of Sinoma this weekend is 1800 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend; The quotation of big materials this weekend is 1900 yuan / ton, which is 1200 yuan / ton lower than that last weekend. The price of upstream raw materials fell sharply and the cost support weakened, which had a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

From the downstream market, the ex factory price of PVC fell sharply this week. The PVC quotation this week decreased from 10300.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 9340.00 yuan / ton this weekend, a decrease of 9.32%, a year-on-year increase of 27.29%. PVC prices fell sharply this week, the market fell, and the enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened. On the whole, PVC prices this week had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

The downstream market went down, and calcium carbide fell slightly in the future

In the middle and early days of November, the calcium carbide market may fluctuate slightly and fall mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon fell sharply, and the cost support of calcium carbide weakened. The downstream PVC market also began to fall sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may fluctuate slightly in the middle and early days of November.

Recently, the trading atmosphere of viscose staple fiber continues to be weak, and the downward pressure on the price is great. The quotation of mainstream manufacturers has not changed yet. Some manufacturers are bearish on the future market and reduce prices to promote sales. According to the price monitoring of business society, as of November 10, 2021, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2D * 38mm viscose staple fiber was 14320 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week.

Upstream staple fiber and pulp Market: the load of viscose staple fiber industry continues to operate at a low level, superimposing factors such as pulp capacity expansion, and some dissolved pulp is in a wait-and-see state. There are few enquiries for domestic dissolved pulp, the trading volume is under pressure, and the price is loose again with the imported pulp. As of November 9, 2021, the market price of coniferous wood pulp is 5100 yuan / ton and that of broad-leaved wood pulp is 4510 yuan / ton.

The trading atmosphere of cotton yarn in the downstream turned weak, the demand in the downstream terminal was weak, and the operating rate of the industry increased rapidly, resulting in a negative decline in prices. As of November 10, 2021, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) is 19166 yuan / ton, which is about 100 yuan / ton lower than that of last week.

Recently, the operating rate of viscose staple fiber has increased, the supply expectation has increased, the downstream demand is sluggish, the trading atmosphere has weakened, the viscose staple fiber inventory of downstream yarn mills is OK, and the purchase demand for viscose staple fiber is not urgent. Business analysts expect that the downward pressure on the short-term viscose staple fiber market is large, and the price may continue to loosen and decline.

In November, the overall dimethyl ether Market in Henan Province mainly fell, but the rising market was ushered in on the 1st and 8th respectively. At present, although the fluctuation range is small, the market transaction atmosphere is better than that in the early stage. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4595.00 yuan / ton on November 1 and 4442.50 yuan / ton on November 8, with a decline of 3.32% and 6.33% compared with October 1.

As of November 8, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Specifications date offer

Shandong region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% November 8th 4790 yuan / ton

Hebei region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% November 8th 4740 yuan / ton

Henan region Mass fraction of dimethyl ether: ≥ 99.0% November 8th 4450-4470 yuan / ton

At the beginning of November, the dimethyl ether Market as a whole showed an up-down-up trend, but the overall fluctuation range of the market was limited and the price change was not obvious. Recently, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market has improved compared with the previous period, and the price has returned to the upward trend. Henan’s main production areas began to raise the factory quotation slightly at the weekend, and continued the small rise route on Monday. Some manufacturers in the main production areas of Henan stopped for maintenance, and the reduced supply has brought some support to the market. In terms of demand, the temperature continues to decline, and the demand is expected to be better. In addition, with the sharp reduction of dimethyl ether price, the downstream mentality is improved, and more restocking is given priority to. The overall transaction atmosphere in the market is mild, and the manufacturers slightly increase the ex factory price.

Recently, the methanol market continues to decline, mainly due to the low price of raw coal affected by policies. Although the coal price has stopped falling, the policy pricing is still, and the coal price is low. The news that some MTO devices are planned to restart this week has not been fulfilled, the positive expectations have been dashed, and the mentality of some operators is lack of support, while the traditional downstream demand enterprises are just focusing on demand, and there is no obvious large-scale situation. Methanol market fell significantly. The falling cost has brought some bad news to the dimethyl ether Market.

At present, the raw material methanol market continues to weaken and the cost support is insufficient. However, driven by the rise of international crude oil, the civil liquefied gas market stops falling and goes up, which brings a certain boost to the dimethyl ether Market. Some manufacturers in Henan market stop for maintenance and reduce the market supply. The downstream mentality has improved, mainly replenishment into the market. The manufacturer’s mentality is strong, and the ex factory quotation has been slightly increased. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may fluctuate upward in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on November 5:

Qingdao refinery offers 5900 yuan / ton, and Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 6400 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 6400 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 6250 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 6500 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 6450 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 6500 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 6251 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 6250 yuan / ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical offers 6200 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + has no plan to increase production. Saudi Arabia raised the official price of crude oil, and the international oil price rebounded significantly on Friday. Data released by Baker Hughes on the 5th showed that the number of active oil rigs in the United States increased by 6 month on month and 224 year-on-year this week. The increase of US crude oil production and the late resumption of Iran nuclear negotiations may be bad for oil prices.

Today, Jingbo Petrochemical xylene increased by 55 yuan / ton.

Crude oil prices rebounded last Friday, boosting related bulk commodities. Coupled with the rebound in gasoline prices, mixed xylene is operating at a high price today, and the operators are cautious.

DBP prices fluctuated and fell this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, DBP prices rose first and then fell this week, and the overall DBP market was weak and fell. As of November 4, the price of DBP was 11766.67 yuan / ton, down 1.12% from 11900 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29); Overall, the price of DBP fluctuated and fell this week, and the DBP market fell.

Butanol fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. As of November 4, the average ex factory price of n-butanol was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 1.94% from 10333.33 yuan / ton last weekend (October 29). The market price of n-butanol has dropped to a low level. Downstream users mainly replenish small and medium-sized orders, the market demand is still weak, and the price of n-butanol fluctuated slightly. N-butanol market weak adjustment.

The price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of phthalic anhydride fell this week. Affected by the rise of the price of phthalic anhydride, the cost of phthalic anhydride rose, the cost support of phthalic anhydride still existed, the start-up of plasticizer manufacturers rebounded slightly, the demand for phthalic anhydride increased, the strong support of phthalic anhydride market remained, the price of plasticizer fell, and the downward pressure of phthalic anhydride increased.

PVC fell sharply this week

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the PVC price fell sharply this week. As of November 4, the average price of PVC was 9470 yuan / ton, down 8.06% from 10300 yuan / ton last weekend; PVC prices fell sharply this week, plasticizer demand remained weak, downstream customers of plasticizer had poor purchasing enthusiasm, and DBP prices fell under great pressure.

Future expectations

Bai Jiaxin, a DBP data analyst at business agency, believes that DBP prices fell slightly this week, and DBP prices fell. In terms of raw materials, the prices of n-butanol and phthalic anhydride fell slightly, the cost of DBP decreased, and the downward pressure on DBP increased; In terms of demand, PVC is still weak, and the demand for plasticizer is declining. Generally speaking, DBP cost support is absent and demand is declining. It is expected that DBP price will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Trade name: sulfuric acid

Latest price (November 3): 838.33 yuan / ton

On November 3, the market price of domestic sulfuric acid decreased slightly, which was 5 yuan / ton lower than the quotation on November 1, a decrease of 0.59%, and a year-on-year increase of 110.90%. From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market has increased slightly recently, and the cost support is good. The market of bromine and formic acid in the downstream has been consolidated at a high level, the downstream demand is general, and the rising power of sulfuric acid is insufficient.

Recently, the market price of sulfuric acid in China may fluctuate slightly, and the average quotation price is about 820 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market situation of ammonium chloride rose in October. The price at the beginning of the month was around 1135 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was around 1205 yuan / ton, up 6.17%.

In October, the prices of urea and raw liquid ammonia continued to rise, giving strong support to ammonium chloride. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of October 31, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 5183 yuan / ton, an increase of 6.87% over the price of 4850 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and the highest increase in the month was 9.28%; As of October 31, the domestic urea price was 3080 yuan / ton, an increase of 9.35% over the price of 2816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with the highest increase of 10.35% in the month.

In October, the downstream demand for ammonium chloride was still weak, the construction of compound fertilizer industry was still around 30%, the winter storage market in Northeast China started slowly, and the overall purchasing atmosphere of the market was weak. However, the start-up of the joint alkali enterprise is around 60%, the enterprise inventory is low, and the supply is supported by ammonium chloride.

Future forecast: ammonium chloride analysts of business society believe that at present, the price of ammonium chloride is high supported by supply and cost. In the medium and long term, if the operation of Lianhe alkali is increased or the price of raw materials falls, the price of ammonium chloride will fall. The price of ammonium chloride rose tentatively.

Recent price trend of potassium chloride

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of domestic potassium chloride decreased this month, and the quotation decreased from 3270 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 11.62%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 48.21%. On October 31, the commodity index of potassium chloride was 91.75, the same as yesterday, down 11.62% from the highest point of 103.81 in the cycle (2021-10-12), and up 57.51% from the lowest point of 58.25 on August 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from March 1, 2012 to now).

In terms of domestic potassium: the largest producer of potassium chloride and leading enterprise of potassium fertilizer in China, Salt Lake Co., Ltd. is fully open, and the price of potassium chloride has decreased from 3270 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to 2890 yuan / ton at the end of the month. After the competent authorities interviewed the chemical fertilizer enterprises, the price of domestic potassium chloride gradually fell due to the influence of the policy of ensuring the supply and price of chemical fertilizer. The price of Zangger holdings is relatively consistent with that of salt lake group. Market news says that the new price may also maintain stability next month; The factory quotation of 57% powder of Qinghai small factory is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the supply of goods is tight.

Port potassium: at the end of the month, the price of port potassium gradually increased. The high-end price of 62% white potassium at the port has been about 4000 yuan / ton. Although the market transaction is limited, it is related to the lack of supply itself, which is about 200 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the month.

In terms of border trade potassium: at the end of the month, the price of 62% white potassium has mostly reached 3600-3650 yuan / ton, an increase of about 200 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the month.

Guarantee supply and stable price of domestic potash fertilizer, mainly temporarily stable in the future

The salt lake and zangge are under normal operation and the unit is in good operation, but the downstream demand is good and the supply of goods is relatively tight. From the perspective of agricultural demand, the autumn fertilizer market is ending with slight procurement, while the winter storage market has not been started yet, and traders are not active in taking goods. From the perspective of industrial demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream market of potassium chloride is not high, and it is mainly just needed to purchase. While the international potash fertilizer has risen sharply, the domestic potash fertilizer may still rise. Potassium chloride analysts of business society believe that the domestic potassium chloride price may fluctuate slightly in the short term, focusing on the news related to large contracts.

According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the average price of acetic acid was 6760 yuan / ton on October 29. Compared with the price of 7240 yuan / ton on October 23, it was reduced by 480 yuan / ton during the week, a decrease of 6.63% and 24.30% month on month. As of October 29, the market price of acetic acid in various regions in China rose and fell as follows:

region October 22nd October 29th Price rise and fall

South China 7300-7400 yuan / ton 7000-7100 yuan / ton – 300/-300

North China 7100-7350 yuan / ton 6700-6900 yuan / ton – 400/-450

Shandong region 7100-7300 yuan / ton 6650-6750 yuan / ton – 450/-550

Jiangsu region 7000-7100 yuan / ton 6700-6900 yuan / ton – 300/-200

Zhejiang region 7100-7200 yuan / ton 6800-7000 yuan / ton – 300/-200

The domestic acetic acid market is weak and downward, the on-site acetic acid enterprises have many devices, stable operation and increased inventory, while the downstream is affected by limited power production, the downstream start-up is low, there is no significant increase in market demand, the market purchase is still rational, and the on-site trading is light, resulting in the continuous increase of acetic acid inventory, coupled with the slow consumption of market supply, the domestic acetic acid enterprises in order to maintain shipment, The quotation keeps falling.

In the downstream, the market of ethyl acetate continued to decline this week. As of October 29, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was 9675.00 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 3.85% during the week. Most of the manufacturers’ devices operated normally, the enterprise inventory increased, and the market supply was sufficient. However, the downstream industry was affected by power restriction, the demand was general, the transaction volume was insufficient, and the delivery speed of ethyl acetate manufacturers decreased, The market is weak and down.

According to the acetic acid analysts of business society, in terms of supply in the domestic market, many manufacturers’ devices operate stably, the supply of goods in the acetic acid market is sufficient, the purchase in the downstream is still rational, and the contradiction between supply and demand will not be significantly improved in a short time. It is expected that the future market will be stable for the time being, and pay attention to the market transaction.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the current price of PTA continued to fall today (October 28). The average price in the domestic market was 5150 yuan / ton, down 3.01% from the previous day, up 52.52% year-on-year. The main futures 2201 closed at 5204, down 168, down 3.13%.

In terms of supply, the PTA plant with an annual output of 1 million tons of chuanneng chemical stopped in the evening of October 26, the restart time is to be determined, and the industrial start-up load is reduced to near 82%. However, the sufficient market supply has tired the warehouse. The delivery of polyester plants in the downstream is mostly hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light.

The high crude oil price fell back, which lacked support for PTA market. As of October 27, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $82.66/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $83.87/barrel. A report released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that US crude oil inventories increased more than expected last week. In addition, there are rumors that Iran’s nuclear negotiations may be restarted, which is bad for the oil market.

In terms of downstream demand, the impact of power rationing still exists in the near future, and the polyester operation has not been significantly improved and maintained below 80%. The start-up of terminal textile enterprises remained low, the raw material inventory was sufficient, the consumption was relatively slow, the mood for raw material procurement was poor, the overall mentality was cautious, and the prices of mainstream polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang fell steadily.

Business analysts believe that the current downstream demand is still weak, and the PTA market is weakening due to the pressure of accumulation pattern. At the same time, the adjustment of high crude oil shock has limited support for the PTA market cost, and the market sentiment is pessimistic. It is expected that the PTA price will operate in a narrow range and weak in a short time. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of international oil prices, maintenance of our own devices and improvement of demand.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 7975.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, the average ex factory tax price of Shanxi light potassium carbonate was 7975.00 yuan / ton at the end of the month, and the lowest price in the month was 7925.00 yuan / ton. The current price was flat month on month, and the current price increased by 29.67% year-on-year.

Potassium carbonate

In October, the market of potassium carbonate fell first and then rose. As can be seen from the above figure, after the potassium carbonate market fell and rose in October, it returned to the original point, and the price was the same as that at the beginning of the month. The market of potassium carbonate is mainly affected by the relationship between supply and demand. Compared with the former, the supply of goods is relatively sufficient, and the market falls. In the later stage, the supply of goods in the market is tight, and traders cherish after-sales, so the market rises. According to the statistics of business agency, the mainstream ex factory quotation range of Shanxi industrial potassium carbonate in October was about 7700-8400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only). The quotation is different according to different procurement conditions.

Recently, the quotation of mainstream potassium chloride manufacturers has been temporarily stable: there is a tight supply of domestic potash fertilizer. Although the production enterprises are fully engaged in production, the operating rate is slightly low, the self-sufficiency rate is insufficient, and the international demand for potash fertilizer is strong, but there is a tight supply of domestic potash fertilizer. Under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term potassium chloride market, the potassium chloride market is dominated by high-level consolidation

In the near future, the supply of potash fertilizer market is relatively short, and the procurement of downstream factories maintains rigid demand. It is expected that the price of potassium carbonate will mainly rise in the short term, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and sorted and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business society. They are for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details).

Spot aluminum prices continued to fall on the 26th

According to the data of business agency, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots in East China on October 26 was 20866.67 yuan / ton, down 3.69% from the average market price of 21666.67 yuan / ton on October 25.

At present, the aluminum price has fallen below the high and volatile operation range in the early stage. Taking the average market price of aluminum ingots at the beginning of the year (January 1, 2021) of 15726.67 yuan / ton as the benchmark price, it has increased by 32.68%.

Social inventories have risen

As of October 21, the total domestic social inventory was 954400 tons, an increase of 70400 tons on a weekly basis. Among them, the social inventory of aluminum ingots in Guangdong was 277400 tons, an increase of 12400 tons on a weekly basis; The social inventory of aluminum ingots in East China was 505000 tons, with a weekly increase of 46000 tons (including 96000 tons in Shanghai, 319300 tons in Wuxi, 4700 tons in Changzhou and 85000 tons in Hangzhou); Gongyi’s inventory was 84000 tons, an increase of 12000 tons on a weekly basis; Tianjin’s inventory was 70000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis; Chongqing’s inventory was 3000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis; Linyi’s inventory was 15000 tons, unchanged on a weekly basis.

High energy power consumption and aluminum production still need to be paid attention to

According to the data of China Southern Power Grid, the economy of the five southern provinces (Guangdong, Guangxi, Yunnan, Guizhou and Hainan) continued to recover from January to September. Superimposed on the low base effect and the impact of high temperature weather in the same period last year, the power consumption of the whole society in the five southern provinces reached 1100.4 billion kwh, a year-on-year increase of 14.9% and an average increase of 9.2% in two years.

In the third quarter, the power consumption of high energy consumption capacity was continuously reduced. Although the coal was regulated by the policy, the current coal supply situation was still severe. In addition, the upcoming dry season also increased uncertainty for the later hydropower guarantee. In addition to Guizhou, the power supply of aluminum producing provinces Yunnan and Guangxi still needs to be paid special attention

Future forecast

The recent sharp decline in coal prices has brought a strong impact on the metal aluminum market in the power major industry. The speculative positions in the futures market have been settled, driving the linkage of spot prices. On the whole, the spot fundamentals have not changed much, but the aluminum price is indeed high, the downstream undertaking is weak, the fear of heights is strong, and the aluminum price has a certain downward momentum. The price of raw alumina is high, the cost of electricity is pushed up, the cost side is rising, and the expectation of capacity ceiling and production and power restriction is still in progress. It is expected that the space for reduction will narrow in the near future.

This week (October 18-22), the domestic liquid ammonia Market stagnated, and the price fell slightly near the weekend. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline in Shandong was 0.47%, and the price fell below 5000 yuan / ton. At present, the price of liquid ammonia is still at a relatively high level in history. The main reason is that the upstream coal is suppressed by regulation, the price is down, and the cost advantage is weakened. With the increase of shipments of ammonia enterprises, the supply surge led to the rise of inventory, the inventory of ammonia enterprises was discharged, and the price began to loosen.

In terms of cost, at the beginning of the week, there was bad news in the market, the state issued policies to intervene in the coal market, and the futures of power coal and coking coal fell by the limit for several days. Although the spot market is strong, the price is also loose. The policy requires the release of some coal production capacity, and the supply pressure is expected to be relieved. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of thermal coal was 0.42%.

On the supply side, this week, the market supply gradually increased and the enterprise shipment increased. Taking a large factory in Shandong as an example, the daily shipment was only 600 tons last week and gradually rose to 900 tons this week. At present, there are few maintenance enterprises, among which the operating rate of devices in Shandong, Hebei, Lianghu and other regions is high. Previously, many devices were facing resumption of work and production. The increase of market supply is the fundamental reason for the decline of prices.

On the demand side, by late October, the downstream demand increment gradually slowed down. Previously, the downstream enterprises had strong stock preparation strength and sustained high support prices. At present, the downstream procurement slowed down and the price of liquid ammonia also loosened. In terms of urea, the price is still very strong, and it is still rising this week, with an increase of 1.30%. However, it is also obvious that the rise is very weak, and it is less likely that the future market will continue to rise.

Future forecast: in the short term, the upstream coal price will still be suppressed, and the cost of liquid ammonia will still face bad. In addition, the pressure on the supply side is difficult to ease in the short term. It is expected that there is still room for correction in the liquid ammonia Market in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of aniline stabilized after a wide rise this week. On October 15, the price of aniline in Shandong was 13200-13560 yuan / ton and that in Nanjing was 13500-13600 yuan / ton; On October 22, the price in Shandong was 14000-14260 yuan / ton; The price of aniline in Nanjing is 14000-14500 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.74% over last week, 77.22% over the beginning of the year and 108.96% over the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

In terms of cost, the rise of crude oil slowed down, the atmosphere of bulk commodity market weakened during the week, and the price of styrene fell, and the negotiation of pure benzene Market weakened. Demand in Shandong weakened and prices fluctuated narrowly after falling during the week. The impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, and the mentality of pure benzene market is empty.

The price of nitric acid rebounded this week. On Friday (October 22), the production price of nitric acid in East China was 3430 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.18% over last week and 116.63% over the same period last year.

Due to an accident, Jiangsu Fuqiang delayed the restart of aniline plant, the overall operating rate of aniline in the field was low, the spot supply was tight, the market hyped that the supply was reduced, and the price continued to rise. During the week, the price of pure benzene fell, but it was still high, the price of nitric acid rebounded, and the raw material side supported aniline well. The downstream demand is good, and the follow-up of p-aniline is stable. Aniline stabilized after rising during the week.

3、 Future expectations

In terms of cost, crude oil will still maintain a strong trend in the short term, with good cost support. However, the downstream operating rate decreased and the demand for pure benzene was limited; Coupled with the impact of low price of hydrogenated benzene in the north, it is expected that pure benzene will hardly recover in the short term. Overall, it is expected that pure benzene will fluctuate weakly next week.

It is reported that Huatai and Jinmao have maintenance plans, and the supply of aniline may continue to decrease in the future. The tight supply pattern is difficult to change in the short term, and aniline is expected to maintain a strong trend next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw material, downstream demand and the dynamics of aniline plant.

In mid October, the domestic liquefied gas market continued to rise, and the price rose, repeatedly hitting the highest point in the year. At present, the ex factory quotation of civil gas in Shandong mostly rose to 6500 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 6026.67 yuan / ton on October 17 and 6416.67 yuan / ton on October 20, with an increase of 6.47% during the week, an increase of 21.68% compared with October 1.

As of October 20, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Specifications type of shipping region Mainstream quotation

Civil gas Automobile transportation North China 5950-6700 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation East China 6150-6400 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation South China 6260-6350 yuan / ton

Civil gas Automobile transportation Shandong region 6300-6500 yuan / ton

In the middle of October, the price of domestic liquefied gas continued to rise. Shandong’s civil gas market price is strong, and the rise rate has increased this week. At present, there are many favorable factors in the market, supporting the continuous increase of liquefied gas price. The strong international crude oil price and high import price have brought some positive support to the market. In terms of supply, the supply in Shandong market has not changed much recently. In terms of demand, the weather temperature has been declining, especially in the northern market, the cooling is obvious, and the terminal demand has increased. The downstream buyer’s mentality is relatively positive, the manufacturer’s shipment is smooth, there is no obvious pressure on the inventory, the mentality is relatively strong, and the price is reported high one after another. At present, the price of liquefied gas has risen to a high level in recent seven years.

Recently, the LPG futures market fluctuated downward, bringing Limited benefits to the spot market. On October 20, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2112 was 6462, the highest price was 6508, the lowest price was 5974, the closing price was 6215, the former settlement price was 6486, the settlement price was 6244, down 271, down 4.18%, the trading volume was 257255, the position was 71224, and the daily position was increased by – 4811. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

At present, the overall transaction atmosphere in the domestic liquefied gas market is mild, and the South and North markets are mainly adjusted upward. At present, the manufacturers in Shandong market have smooth shipments, most of their inventories are at a controllable level, and their mentality is relatively strong. In the later stage, with the weather continuing to cool down, the terminal demand still increases. In addition, the high international crude oil price also brings obvious benefits to the market, It is expected that the LPG market will continue to rise in the later stage.

Trade name: epichlorohydrin

Latest price (October 20): 20666.67 yuan / ton

On October 20, the market price of epichlorohydrin was temporarily stable, flat compared with the previous trading day, increased by 1.64% compared with the price on September 20, and increased by 34.20% year-on-year in a three-month cycle. At present, the price of raw materials is running at a high level, the cost support is strong, and the supply is expected to reduce the impact of the news. There is a strong atmosphere of pushing up on the floor. The downstream just needs to follow up, and the market transaction atmosphere is OK.

It is expected that in the short term, the epichlorohydrin market may be dominated by strong operation.

Zinc price fell on October 19

According to the data monitoring of business society, the zinc commodity index was 158.78 on October 18, up 12.08 points from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 119.67% from the lowest point of 72.28 on November 22, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). On the 18th, the zinc price hit a record high in the cycle. On the 19th, the zinc price fell. The zinc futures market fell after the zinc price limit rose for three consecutive trading days, and the zinc market fell. As of October 19, the price of zinc was 27216.00 yuan / ton, down 2.09% from 27796 yuan / ton on October 18 of the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 23835.00 yuan / ton on October 13 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 14.19%. Zinc prices finally fell after continuous trading.

Glencore European zinc plant joined the ranks of production reduction

On October 16, Glencore announced that it would reduce the output of its three zinc smelters in Europe, mainly including staggered peak production of zinc smelters in Germany, Spain and Italy, and said that this was mainly affected by the soaring energy costs. Glencore is one of the world’s mining giants. Last year, the company produced 1170400 tons of zinc, accounting for about 9.67% of the world. After Trafigura group reduced its production by 50%, Glencore joined the ranks of production reduction, the supply of zinc market decreased, and the rising power of zinc market was full.

Zinc prices fell after rising continuously in the current table

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the futures zinc market hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days after October 13. On October 18, the closing price of zinc ingot in London market was USD 3686 / T, with the price falling by USD 134 / T, or 3.51%. On October 18, the closing price of zinc ingot at night in Shanghai futures market was 26935 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 620 yuan / ton, or 2.25%. On October 18, the night zinc price in the futures market fell, and the spot zinc price fell on October 19. Zinc prices fell slightly after setting a historical record, and the momentum for the future rise of zinc market still exists.

Market Overview

Analysts of the business community believe that with the European Glencore zinc smelter joining the ranks of production reduction, the supply of zinc market is expected to fall again, and the zinc market is full of upward momentum. The futures zinc price has hit the daily limit for three consecutive trading days, and the spot zinc price has reached a record high. After reaching a record high, the upward momentum of zinc market has slowed down, the night price of zinc market has fallen, and the spot zinc price has followed suit. In the future, The demand of zinc market has not changed significantly, the supply expectation of zinc market has fallen sharply, the overall zinc market has full upward momentum, and the zinc price is expected to rise in the future.

From October 8 to October 15, 2021, the bidding price of crude benzene was the main player, which was 6236 yuan / ton last weekend and 6551 yuan / ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 5.05%.

On October 11, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec pure benzene was increased by 400 yuan / ton, 8400 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical implemented 8350 yuan / ton.

This week, pure benzene fell after a broad rise, crude oil rose broadly, the bulk commodity market rose generally, the pure benzene market rose positively, and the price rose broadly. As styrene stopped rising and turned down, and bulk commodities generally fell, the pure benzene market took profits and the price followed the downward trend. The downstream support is strong. The bidding price of crude benzene was raised this week, and 6550 yuan / ton was implemented in Shandong. In terms of supply, affected by the action plan of Shandong Province to deeply fight the blue sky Defense War (2021-2025), Shandong has accelerated the elimination of backward production capacity. The overall operating rate in Shandong is 30-40%, the output is low, the overall inventory in the plant has decreased, there is no goods in some areas, and the sales are good. The heating season is coming. According to the usual practice in previous years, the production restriction orders of coking enterprises in northern areas (especially Hebei, Shanxi, Shandong and other areas) will tend to be strict in the heating season, and the output of both coke and by-products will be reduced to a certain extent. The future supply of crude benzene is expected to be tight.

In the future, the fundamentals are good, pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are stronger, the supply of crude benzene is tight, and the downstream demand is improved. It is expected that the price of crude benzene will be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite continued to rise this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3466.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3700.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 6.73% during the week.

Affected by the rising price of upstream soda ash and supported by the rising cost, some manufacturers raised the ex factory price of sodium pyrosulfite again this week. The market price range of domestic industrial sodium pyrosulfite is 3700-4100 yuan / ton, and most prices are concentrated near 3800 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise continues to be low, the overall supply of sodium pyrosulfite market continues to be tight, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are not within their scope temporarily. The prices are for reference only and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact each manufacturer for details).

From the beginning of October to the 15th, the domestic soda ash price continued to rise at a high level by 12.9%, the sulfur price increased by 3.38%, and the upstream raw material cost continued to rise, which will continue to boost the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the price of upstream raw materials continues to rise. Under the support of cost, the domestic market price of sodium pyrosulfite will continue to be strong in the short term.

Zinc prices soared on October 14

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc price soared on October 14. On October 14, the zinc price was 25086.00 yuan / ton, up 5.25% from 23835 yuan / ton on the previous trading day; Compared with the zinc price of 22686 yuan / ton on October 1 at the beginning of the month, an increase of 10.58%. Zinc prices soared to the highest price in 17 years.

Reduction of zinc production by 50% in three European smelters

According to foreign news on October 13, nyrstar said that with the significant increase in power costs and carbon emission related costs, it is no longer economically feasible to operate the plant at full capacity. It will cut zinc production at its three European smelters by 50% from Wednesday to cope with soaring electricity costs. Nyrstar belongs to Trafigura group and is one of the largest zinc metal producers in the world. It is understood that the total output of its three smelters is 700000 tons, accounting for more than 5% of the world. A 50% reduction in production is equivalent to affecting the global zinc production by 2.5%. The news of sharply reducing the output of zinc smelters was too stimulating, and the supply expectation of zinc market fell sharply, stimulating the sharp rise of zinc price.

Market Overview

Business analysts believe that under the background of intensified power rationing and upgrading, the output of zinc smelters is limited and the supply of zinc market is tight. This time, the output of European smelters is reduced by 50%, which has exacerbated the supply shortage of zinc market and stimulated the sharp rise of zinc price. In the future, it is difficult to reduce the power cost in the short term, the commencement of zinc smelters is not optimistic, the supply of zinc is expected to be in short supply, and the zinc market is expected to rise in the long term.

Domestic price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price of p-xylene rose in the first half of October. As of the 13th, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over the price of 7100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and a year-on-year increase of 64.04%.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, About 50% of Urumqi petrochemical units have been started, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas units are still under maintenance. Due to the general downstream demand, the domestic p-xylene price trend rises. The closing price of international crude oil remained high, and the PX external price rose sharply. As of the 12th, the closing prices were US $923-925 / T FOB Korea and US $941-943 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has not changed much. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is more than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the PX external closing price has risen sharply, The price trend of domestic p-xylene market rose.

In the first half of October, the trend of crude oil price rose sharply. WTI crude oil futures in the United States rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was reported as US $80.64/barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures was reported as US $83.42/barrel. After the oil price rose, it stabilized, and the market fell into differences temporarily. Affected by the global economic recovery and supply shortage, the oil price is still easy to rise but difficult to fall. Since October, the rise of crude oil price is good for the price of domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene is rising.

Since October, the price trend of downstream PTA market has risen. As of October 13, the average price of PTA market was 5400-5500 yuan / ton. The rise in international crude oil prices has strengthened the support for PTA costs. Recently, some PTA units were overhauled, of which the 1.5 million ton unit of Jiaxing Petrochemical stopped on October 9; Yisheng Dalian 6 million ton plant was shut down for 4-5 days on October 8; Hengli Dalian 2.5 million ton unit was overhauled for two weeks on October 8, the industrial commencement dropped to near 60%, and there was output compression at the supply end. Next, restart and overhaul coexisted, and the discharge of 650000 ton PTA unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was restarted on October 11; Two sets of yishanhua with a total of 6 million tons are planned to restart on October 12; Chuanneng chemical is expected to produce 1 million tons of high-quality products on October 13. As of October 12, the operating rate of domestic PTA industry is around 63%, which is expected to decline in the later stage. Therefore, the cumulative inventory rate of PTA is suspended. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption in Jiangsu and Zhejiang, the operating load of polyester weaving in the downstream further fell to less than 80%, the supply of goods was tight, mainly consumption inventory, and the prices of staple fiber, filament and other products rose sharply. However, under the condition of increasing supply and decreasing demand, the driving force of PTA continued to rise was insufficient, and the price trend of p-xylene market rose.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current short-term crude oil price trend is OK, but the downstream PTA and textile market continue to rise, and the polyester market remains high. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may stabilize temporarily in the later stage.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid continued to rise in early October. As of December 12, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 11860 yuan / ton, up 6.18% from 11170 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 41.02% year-on-year.

The price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid rose in the first ten days. Up to now, the mainstream price negotiated by various regions of domestic hydrofluoric acid has risen to 11200-11700 yuan / ton. The quotation of some manufacturers is higher than the market price, and the actual transaction price on the floor has increased. The price of domestic hydrofluoric acid is still rising. Recently, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the price trend on the floor has risen.

The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, some hydrofluoric acid units in the site operate stably, and the price trend of upstream raw materials of hydrofluoric acid is rising. So far, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the south is 11000-11500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11200-11700 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has continued to rise. The manufacturer reported that the delivery situation has improved recently, and the hydrofluoric acid market has risen.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose. As of December 12, the price of domestic fluorite was 2700 yuan / ton, with a rise of 1.25% in the first ten days. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite is normal, and the operation of domestic fluorite units is relatively normal. However, recently, the environmental protection supervision is strict, and the installation and parking in some areas are affected. Generally speaking, there is little change in the supply in the yard, Domestic fluorite prices rose slightly this week. Up to now, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation is 2600-2700 yuan / ton. The high price of fluorite in the venue is the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is affected.

The price trend of downstream refrigerant products has maintained rising, the operating rate of the refrigerant industry in the field has maintained, the recent sales of the automobile industry is OK, the refrigerant market trend has increased, and the demand is mainly based on demand procurement. The rise of the refrigerant market has brought certain benefits to the upstream raw materials. On the whole, the refrigerant market is dominated by positive factors, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid and chloroform is rising, which increases the cost of the refrigerant industry. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, coupled with quota factors, the production cost pressure of refrigerant enterprises increases, enterprises sell in limited quantities, the shortage of goods in the field continues, boosting R22 prices, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 26000-27000 yuan / ton. The price of R134a in China has risen sharply. Meanwhile, mainstream enterprises such as Jiangsu Meilan and Shandong Dongyue have installed parking lots. The supply of goods in the yard continues to be tight, the enterprise inventory is not under pressure, the price support mood is strong, and the market continues to rise. At present, the average market price exceeds 40000 yuan / ton. Although the vehicle demand is still in the off-season, the cost support is getting stronger, the market is running stronger, and the market trend of downstream refrigerant has risen sharply, Hydrofluoric acid market price trend rose.

From the industrial chain chart, the price trend of fluorine chemical industry is rising, the price of raw material fluorite is rising, the price of sulfuric acid raw material is at a high level, and the price trend of downstream refrigerant products is rising sharply. In addition, the recent stable operation of domestic hydrofluoric acid units and normal spot supply on the site. Chen Ling, hydrofluoric acid analyst of Shengyi society, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

Trade name: titanium concentrate

Latest price October 11: 2410 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis on October 11, the market price of domestic titanium concentrate was relatively stable, the operating rate of downstream titanium dioxide plant decreased, the overall demand for titanium concentrate contracted slightly, and the demand for titanium ore market weakened. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, traders are cautious in taking goods, and the wait-and-see mood is obvious. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand.

Forecast: the price of titanium concentrate will remain stable in the short term.

In October, the propane market rose unabated and welcomed the good start. After returning from the 11th small holiday, Shandong propane market continued its rise in September, continued to be the main player, with a particularly prominent increase, broke through the high level of 6000 yuan / ton, and quickly rose to the highest level in the year. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4983.25 yuan / ton on September 30 and 6125.75 yuan / ton on October 8. The increase rate in early October was 6.24%, an increase of 22.93% compared with September 1.

As of October 8, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications October 8th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 5900-6100 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6030-6180 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6043-6230 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 6100-6150 yuan / ton

Since the beginning of October, the domestic propane Market as a whole has been the main player. Both the north and South markets have actively increased, and the increase in Shandong market is prominent. The factory quotation has been continuously increased during the National Day holiday, and on the first day after the festival. The price of propane in Shandong has risen above 6000 yuan / ton. At present, the average market price of propane in Shandong has reached the highest point of 6125.75 yuan / ton in the year.

The main factors supporting the continuous increase of propane price include the following points. First, the increase of import cost. At the end of September, Saudi Aramco introduced CP price in October, and propylene butane soared, which brought obvious benefits to the domestic market. Secondly, international crude oil pushed up, and the news was good for the market mentality. In addition, the off-season has passed, the weather has turned cool, and the terminal demand has increased compared with the previous period. In addition, with the arrival of the 11th small holiday, there is a demand for replenishment in the downstream before and after the festival, so there is a good enthusiasm to enter the market. At present, the inventory of Shandong manufacturers is mostly at a controllable level, with smooth shipment and strong mentality. Prices are still rising on the first day after the festival.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2021 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 800 USD / T, an increase of 135 USD / T compared with the previous month; Butane is 795 USD / T, an increase of 130 USD / T compared with the previous month.

The peak season of propane market has come, and there is an expectation of improvement in terminal demand. In addition, the sharp rise in import costs and the high level of international crude oil have brought obvious benefits to the domestic market. At present, the overall transaction atmosphere of the market is mild, there is still replenishment demand in the downstream after the festival, and the manufacturer’s inventory is mostly at the low level, and the overall shipment is smooth. It is expected that the price of propane market will continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

In September, the futures price of domestic polyester staple fiber rebounded. According to the price test of business agency, on September 30, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market was 7343 yuan / ton, up 3.52% from the price of 7093 at the beginning of the month and 34.74% year-on-year. In the futures market, the main short fiber Futures (2201) closed at 7452 on September 30, up 7.53% from the beginning of the month.

The main reasons for the rise in the price of domestic polyester staple fiber in September are as follows: first, the cost picked up. This month, the international crude oil price fluctuated higher, and the price of PTA ethylene glycol, the upstream raw material of staple fiber, rebounded; Second, the supply is greatly reduced. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the main producing provinces have limited power and production, the production and shutdown of polyester staple fiber devices have been reduced, the maintenance has been increased, and the supply has been greatly reduced. However, the inventory of downstream yarn weaving Market and traders is low, so there is a demand for replenishment.

2、 Factors affecting price

In September, the domestic PTA spot market bottomed out and rebounded. As of September 30, the average price in the domestic market was 5069 yuan / ton, up 3.22% from the beginning of the month and 52.94% year-on-year. The futures market also strengthened. On September 30, the settlement price of 2201, the main force of PTA futures, was 5088 yuan / ton, up 3.20% month on month. International crude oil prices continued to rise due to lower inventories and supply concerns caused by hurricanes in the United States, and PTA cost side price support strengthened. The traditional demand for polyester and terminal weaving in the downstream is not prosperous in the peak season, and there is no change in September. In the first ten days of September, the PTA maintenance device was restarted, and the operating rate of the industry increased to more than 80%. Affected by the weak downstream demand, the supply of PTA plants was sufficient, and the inventory rebounded significantly. In particular, the upgrading of the “dual control” policy of energy in Jiangsu and Zhejiang increased the impact on the weaving industry, and the shutdown and production reduction increased significantly. Since the end of the month, PTA maintenance has been strengthened, and the industrial operating load has dropped to near 72%.

The ethylene glycol market strengthened significantly in September. On September 30, the average price of P value of oil based ethylene glycol was 5970 yuan / ton, an increase of 310 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle. Under the influence of “double control”, coal to ethylene glycol bears the brunt, and the operating rates of ethylene glycol and downstream polyester end have declined. In September, due to the closure of the port, the slow pilotage and unloading of special flights and other factors, the port inventory was at a low level, and the arrival expectation was also declining. Under the influence of favorable supply factors, the spot price rose steadily. Another important reason for the sharp rise in ethylene glycol prices is the upstream raw materials. Under the influence of factors such as the short-term hurricane in the United States, the decline of crude oil inventory and the expected increase in oil demand, the crude oil price fluctuated upward this month, once reaching a high in recent three years. Therefore, although the downstream polyester production and sales performance is still depressed, ethylene glycol is still strongly pushed up.

In September, the price of domestic pure polyester yarn fluctuated and remained stable. As of September 30, the average price of pure polyester yarn in Shandong was 14375 yuan / ton. The market turnover continued to be light, the overall market was dominated by caution, and manufacturers mainly shipped. Affected by the double reduction policy, the polyester yarn startup rate fell, the raw material inventory increased slightly, most of the early orders were delivered, the domestic and foreign trade inquiry atmosphere was ok, and the inventory pressure of polyester yarn finished products was relieved. Driven by the rapid rise in costs, the price of pure polyester yarn has been increased, and the transaction has been followed up gradually. However, the lower high price is generally accepted, and most of the early low positions are filled.

3、 Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the polyester staple fiber maintenance device may be restarted in October. The new production capacity of xinfengming polyester staple fiber may reach the production capacity, and the supply pressure may increase. However, in October, the downstream yarn weaving market was affected or reduced by “double control”, and the production capacity of power and production reduction and shutdown in the early stage may be gradually restored. In addition, with the advent of the traditional Christmas stock season in the textile and garment industry, the demand side may be improved. In addition to the strong support of crude oil price, it is expected that polyester staple fiber will still rise in October. Pay attention to the change of crude oil PTA price and the change of “double control” and “double limit” policies.

In September, the market situation of nitrile rubber continued to rise. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of nitrile rubber was 23233 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 24200 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the end of the month, it increased by 4.16% compared with the beginning of the month.

The supply side of domestic nitrile rubber is basically stable, the enterprise inventory is small, the ex factory price of nitrile increases, and the demand side just needs support. It is understood that the ex factory price of domestic Lanhua nitrile increased by 200 ~ 400 yuan / ton in September. As of September 30, Lanzhou Petrochemical n41e reported 21200 yuan / ton, 3305e reported 22100 yuan / ton and 3308e reported 23200 yuan / ton. Traders’ offers rose slightly during the month.

In September, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated narrowly, and the cost side was empty. According to the monitoring of business society, as of September 30, the price of butadiene was 6975 yuan / ton, down 33.63% from 10510 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The acrylonitrile price of East China port in September was around 14800 ~ 15200 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business society believe that although the cost is low, the inventory pressure of NBR enterprises is small, and the downstream just needs support. It is expected that the price of NBR will remain high in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

In September, the price of styrene fell slowly after rising sharply under the cost support and demand suppression, and rose as a whole. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of styrene was 8787.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and rose all the way to 9657.50 yuan / ton on September 16, up 9.90%. By September 30, the price of styrene was 9170.00 yuan / ton, down 5.05% from the middle of the month and up 4.35% from the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

This month, the price of styrene fell slowly after rising sharply under the cost support and demand suppression, and rose as a whole. At the beginning of June, affected by the sharp rise in the price of pure benzene, the price of styrene rose sharply. The arrival of pure benzene at East China port was affected by the health incident, some of which were delayed and the port inventory was tight. East China pure benzene rose slightly in the shock due to low inventory and external support. In addition, the maintenance news of downstream styrene Zhejiang Petrochemical in October triggered a sharp rise in styrene futures and spot. Pure benzene was driven by linkage trading, with active buying, rapid price rise, and cost support gave rise to styrene. By the middle of the month, the rise of pure benzene was weak and the price continued to fall. Yangzi BASF and CNOOC Taizhou reduced their load and shut down, resulting in some losses on the supply side. However, the external market prices in the United States and Europe fell sharply due to insufficient demand, resulting in the lack of other options for South Korea’s pure benzene export. Therefore, after the import volume reached 320000 tons in August, the import volume was also high in September. After the worries on the floor, the supply and demand fundamentals of pure benzene turned to sufficient supply, and the negative sentiment increased, causing the rapid decline of prices. With the exchange and rescue of some domestic pure benzene, pure benzene became weaker, driving the correction of styrene price. Near the end of the month, the price of styrene fluctuated and stabilized, the purchasing market before and after the Mid Autumn Festival, and the spot buying sentiment appeared one after another, but the recovery was weak. In addition, under the “energy-saving policy” in Jiangsu, the supply and demand decreased, while styrene plants were restarted in other regions, and the domestic supply increased instead of decreasing. In addition, the port arrival was concentrated and the inventory rose slightly. The fundamentals of styrene itself were still weak, Led to a rebound without support, showing an consolidation situation.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the correction of pure benzene is temporarily stable, the cost support of styrene still exists, and the falling price space is limited. The styrene maintenance unit is gradually restored, the domestic supply will increase, and the fundamentals of styrene itself still show signs of weakening. Styrene is expected to remain volatile in the short term.

Price trend in September

According to the bulk list data of business society, the market price trend of cryolite continued to rise in September. The average market price at the end of the month was 6575 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.54% over the price of 6475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 16.03% year-on-year.

Analysis of industrial chain in the month

In September, the cryolite market in Henan was sorted upward, the upstream raw materials were tight, and the enterprise inventory was tight. During the month, the enterprise adjusted the price according to its own shipment, and the cryolite price increased continuously. In terms of devices, the devices of domestic cryolite enterprises operated normally and started smoothly this month. The manufacturers in Henan had low production capacity, tight inventory, high cryolite quotation and acceptable downstream demand. The enterprises sold according to the order, and the actual transaction price was flexible. As of the 30th, the ex factory price of cryolite in Henan was 6500-6800 yuan / ton, up 200 yuan / ton month on month; The ex factory price in Shandong will be increased by 200 yuan / ton at the same time, and the quotation is about 6700 yuan / ton, mainly through negotiation.

Upstream, the domestic fluorite market remained stable. On September 30, the average price of fluorite was 2666.67 yuan / ton, a slight increase of 0.42% in the month. Affected by environmental protection, the mine is underoperated, and the price trend of fluorite rises slightly due to the rising price of refrigerant. At present, the market demand is weak, the trading of fluorite is general, and there is no good news in the market. It is expected that the market will wait and see in the later stage.

The downstream aluminum industry operated at a high level in September. Affected by the dual control of energy consumption, the production capacity was reduced, the supply was tight, the domestic demand came out of the off-season, the demand for photovoltaic, automobile and other industrial materials maintained growth, which continued to be good for the aluminum price. Under the market game, the future market continued to fluctuate at a high level.

Future forecast

At present, the supply of cryolite market is tight, the downstream demand is OK, the high quotation of enterprises is strong, the on-site mentality is mainly wait-and-see, the raw materials are tight, and there is no possibility of short-term price reduction. It is expected that the cryolite market will be stable and wait-and-see in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash is strong this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was about 2312.5 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 3025 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 30.81%, an increase of 66.51% over the same period last year. On September 28, the commodity index of light soda ash was 152.56, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, an increase of 141.58% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of soda ash is strong this month. At present, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2800-3000 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is relatively strong, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2850-3200 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term soda ash price is mainly high. Affected by the dual control policy, there are many manufacturers’ parking, the overall supply of soda ash is reduced, and the delivery of early orders is mainly. Soda ash inventory is small, and some enterprises do not pick up goods smoothly.

Demand: the price of glass spot market is weak. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 38.75 yuan / m3, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 37.31 yuan / m3, down 3.72%. The production and sales of Shahe in North China are weak, manufacturers mainly ship at stable prices, and traders ship flexibly. The trend in East China was weak, the wait-and-see mood in the downstream was obvious, and the spot price of glass fell. Glass shipments in Central China are generally, some enterprises implement preferential policies, and the price is reduced slightly. The glass shipment in South China is acceptable, the manufacturers deliver at stable prices, and the downstream just needs to purchase. Forecast: in the short term, the glass spot market will wait and see, and the price will continue to be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 38th week of 2021 (9.20-9.24), there were 4 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodities falling and 0 kind of commodities falling. The main commodities rising were: light soda ash (19.47%), calcium carbide (10.94%), caustic soda (7.82%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (- 4.35%). The average rise and fall this week was 7.82%.

Business analysts believe that the domestic soda ash price is strong, the market is running, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. However, the downstream glass price is still in conflict with the high price soda ash, the glass price is weak, and the soda ash is mostly purchased on demand. There is still demand in the market as a whole, but the supply is small and the supply is difficult to find. In addition, considering the impact of policies, soda ash is still strong in the short term, mainly market operation, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of September 28, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10333 yuan / ton. Compared with September 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 15466 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 5133 yuan / ton, a decrease of 33.19%.

In the first week of September, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong Province showed a slight upward trend. On the 5th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 15666 yuan / ton. Compared with the 1st, the average price rose by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.29%. Since the 6th, due to the weak demand, the quotation of n-butanol factory has continued to decline. On the 12th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to 14800 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.52% compared with the beginning of the month.

In mid September, the policies of limiting production and electricity in all provinces were implemented, and the demand for n-butanol decreased significantly, and the market price fell sharply

As a major n-butanol supply and marketing Province, Shandong’s n-butanol unit basically operated normally in September and the supply in the site was normal, except for some planned shutdown and maintenance devices. However, since late September, due to power and production restrictions and other influencing factors, the demand for n-butanol in the downstream market has declined to a large extent. The operating rate of main products in the downstream of n-butanol is less than 40%, and even the operating rate of individual downstream products is less than 20%. Under the obvious reduction of demand, the market price of n-butanol began to decline sharply. As of the 25th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong has dropped to 12400 yuan / ton, Compared with the beginning of the month, the decline has reached 20%.

On the 26th, just four days before the national day, the downstream pre festival goods preparation was still average, and the sales pressure of n-butanol market was prominent. The n-butanol factory again significantly reduced the ex factory price of n-butanol by 1000-2000 yuan / ton. On the 26th, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10333 yuan / ton, a single day decrease of 16.67% compared with the previous working day, Subsequently, the overall market was weak. As of September 28, compared with the beginning of the month, the decline of n-butanol in September had exceeded 33%.

In terms of index, on September 28, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) was 84.24, the same as yesterday, down 36.08% from the highest point of 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 181.83% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, at the end of September, the domestic propylene oxide Market in Shandong was highly stable. As of September 28, the average production price of propylene oxide in Shandong was 17333.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.11% compared with September 1 (16033.33 yuan / ton). At present, the raw material propylene has decreased steadily, the cost support is general, the production restriction policy affects propylene oxide and downstream operation load, the market is relatively stable, the overall trading atmosphere is general, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is increasing.

Future analysis of n-butanol

In September, after the price of n-butanol fell sharply, the downstream profit margin was better improved, which will also give some support to the start-up of downstream units after the National Day holiday. With the increase of downstream start-up, the demand enthusiasm will also increase. Therefore, analysts of business society believe that after the National Day holiday, the overall market demand for n-butanol in Shandong will be better in October than in mid and late September, Therefore, the market price of n-butanol is expected to pick up steadily after the festival.