In December 2022, the domestic 1 # tin ingot market rose in shock. The average price of the domestic market was 186910 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 205410 yuan/ton at the end of the month, up 9.9% month on month.

On December 28, the nonferrous index stood at 1219 points, up 10 points from yesterday, down 20.74% from 1538 points (2021-10-18), the highest point in the cycle, and up 100.82% from 607 points, the lowest point on November 24, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly K-bar chart that the tin price has mainly declined in the past six months, with a large decline of -18.54% in May and -22.32% in June. From the weekly K-bar chart, we can see that the lead price has fallen more or less recently, and the overall decline.

In terms of the spot market, the overall volatility rose this month. At the end of the year, the manufacturer’s quotation is more cautious, and some enterprises have a strong price mentality. Affected by higher prices, the overall market trading is average. In terms of fundamentals, the domestic market as a whole has not changed much, which still shows loose supply and weak demand. Recently, the output of the refinery has increased slightly, and the market supply is loose. At present, the downstream procurement intention is still on demand, and the actual market demand has little change. Although the holiday is approaching, the goods preparation before the holiday is average. The business agency expects that the tin price in the future will be mainly weak in the long run, but will still be affected by the macro in the short run, maintaining a wide range of shocks.

In 2022, the domestic sulphuric acid market will rise first and then fall. At the beginning of the year, the average price of the domestic mainstream sulphuric acid market was 645 yuan/ton, and at the end of the year, the average price of the mainstream sulphuric acid market was 291.67 yuan/ton, a decline of 54.78%. The lowest price of the whole year was in the middle of September, with a price of 228.00 yuan/ton. The highest price of the whole year was in the middle of April, with a price of 1205.00 yuan/ton. The maximum amplitude of the year was 81.08%.

From the K column chart of sulfuric acid month, the sulfuric acid market will rise first and then fall in 2022. The highest increase was 42.86% in March and the highest decrease was 53.92% in August. On December 25, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 46.17, unchanged from yesterday, down 75.45% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 46.48% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Review of sulphuric acid market in 2022

The first stage: from the beginning of January to the middle of April, the sulfuric acid market rose sharply. After the Spring Festival, upstream and downstream sulphuric acid enterprises began to work one after another. The upstream sulfur price rose sharply, with strong cost support. The price rose from 2026.67 yuan/ton in early January to 3543.33 yuan/ton in mid April, an increase of 74.84%. The downstream titanium dioxide market was consolidated at a high level, and the downstream demand was good. The price of titanium dioxide fluctuates narrowly at about 21000 yuan/ton. The downstream formic acid market rose sharply, with the price rising from 4300.00 yuan/ton in early January to 9633.33 yuan/ton in mid April, up 124.03%. The upstream and downstream make joint efforts, and the price of sulfuric acid rises sharply. The price rose from 645.00 yuan/ton in early January to 1208.33 yuan/ton in mid April, an increase of 87.34%.

The second stage: from mid April to mid September, the sulphuric acid market fell sharply. Downstream market fell rapidly and demand was seriously insufficient. The price of downstream hydrofluoric acid fell from 11550.00 yuan/ton in mid April to 10000.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 13.42%. The price of titanium dioxide in the downstream fell from 21,100.00 yuan/ton in mid April to 16,350.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 22.51%. The upstream support dropped sharply. The upstream sulfur price fell from 3543.33 yuan/ton in mid April to 1143.33 yuan/ton in mid September, a decline of 67.73%. Multiple negative, the price of sulfuric acid fell sharply. The price dropped from 1208.33 yuan/ton in mid April to 228.00 yuan/ton in mid September, a drop of 81.13%.

The third stage: from mid September to mid October, the sulfuric acid market rose sharply. The upstream sulfur market stopped falling and rebounded. The price rose from 1143.33 yuan/ton in mid September to 1560.00 yuan/ton in mid October, up 36.44%. The upstream market rose sharply, with good cost support. The price of sulfuric acid rose from 228.00 yuan/ton in mid September to 406.00 yuan/ton in mid October, an increase of 78.07%.

The fourth stage: from the middle of October to the end of December, the sulfuric acid market declined slightly. The downstream titanium dioxide shall be leveled at low position. The price of titanium dioxide fluctuated at a low level around 16000.00 yuan/ton. The downstream phosphoric acid market fell sharply. The price of phosphoric acid dropped from 10530.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 9300.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decline of 11.68%. The upstream sulfur market fell in a narrow range. The price of sulfur fell from 1560.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 1370.00 yuan/ton at the end of December, a decline of 12.18%. The upstream support is insufficient, and the downstream demand is weakened. The price of sulfuric acid fell slightly. The price dropped from 426.00 yuan/ton in mid October to 291.67 yuan/ton at the end of December, a drop of 31.53%.

Future outlook: In the first ten days of January, the sulfuric acid market may fall mainly due to slight shocks. The upstream sulfur market fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. The titanium dioxide market in the lower reaches was consolidated at a low level, while the phosphate fertilizer market was general, and the demand in the lower reaches was weakened. On the whole, the sulfuric acid market has no positive support, and the price of sulfuric acid may fall slightly.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 16, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 9212.50 yuan/ton, 0.55% higher than the price on Tuesday (December 13), and 0.82% higher than the price on December 1.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. The market price of raw propylene rose slightly this week, and the cost support was strengthened. On Tuesday, the factory shipped better, the inventory pressure eased, and the downstream kept following up moderately. The market operated at a constant price without pressure. On the 16th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 8900-9000 yuan/ton.

For upstream propylene, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market rose this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of propylene on December 15 was 7634.60, up 1.44% compared with December 13 (7524.60).

The propylene oxide analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is still there, the supply side is not under pressure, supporting the market price mentality, and the demand side is mainly wait-and-see. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market will be stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Last week (December 12-18, 2022), the upstream and downstream market of nylon filament was weak, the market continued to be weak, and the price continued to fall slightly. The supply of nylon filament remained sufficient and stable, the raw material caprolactam fell to the horizontal, the spot supply was sufficient, the weakness of nylon chips followed up, and the negative impact on the cost side of nylon filament, so the manufacturer’s offer fell again. The wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream enterprises has increased, the terminal textile and clothing consumption is still insufficient, the enthusiasm for fabric procurement is not high, and the market transaction atmosphere continues to be weak.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, last week (December 12-18, 2022), the price of nylon filament became weaker and lower. As of December 18, 2022, the price of nylon filament DTY (Premium; 70D/24F) in Jiangsu Province was 16,980 yuan/ton, down 140 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.82%; Nylon POY (Premium; 86D/24F) quoted 14725 yuan/ton, 175 yuan/ton lower than the previous week’s price, with a weekly drop of 1.17%; Nylon FDY (Premium: 40D/12F) price was 17750 yuan/ton, down 100 yuan/ton from the previous week, with a weekly drop of 0.56%.

Upstream raw material market

Price rise and fall chart of nylon filament industry chain

Raw material caprolactam: Last week (December 12-18, 2022), the domestic caprolactam fell to a horizontal position. In the early stage, the raw material pure benzene market weakened due to the impact of crude oil price fluctuations, and the cost side was not supported enough. Domestic caprolactam stock is abundant, and the demand side lags behind. The price stabilized after falling, and caprolactam price trend is expected to continue the weak finishing market in the short term.

Raw material PA6: The weakness of domestic PA6 market continued in the middle of December, and the spot price fell by a narrow margin. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA6 was 13433.33 yuan/ton on December 18, up or down by – 3.59% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Supply and demand

At present, the commencement of nylon filament shows a downward trend, with overcapacity overflow, high inventory consolidation, and the market is dominated by the digestion of inventory. On the whole, the downstream demand shows that the textile market is hard to hide the weak trend. Weaving manufacturers’ enthusiasm for stocking raw materials has declined. The market atmosphere is cold and the terminal demand is weak. The weaving machine rate has also weakened again. Bad news has flowed out from many places. Most weaving factories maintain the minimum load production.

Future market forecast

In the later stage, the upstream raw materials were weak and low. The nylon filament market was not sufficiently supported at the cost end. The supply of goods in the market was sufficient, and the downstream demand was weak. The downstream construction would decline, and the overall demand for textile terminals would decrease. Analysts from the business community expect that the nylon filament market will continue its weak finishing operation in the later period.

Domestic price trend of paraxylene:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price trend is temporarily stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 7450 yuan/ton, which was unchanged from the price of 7450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 11.19% year on year.

The domestic supply of paraxylene is normal, and the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%. The external dependence of PX products is about 40%. Recently, the price of PX’s external market has risen. As of the 15th, the closing price of the Asian paraxylene market was 914-916 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 932-934 dollars/ton CFR China. The rise in external price is good for the domestic market. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has risen slightly. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is supported, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is stable.

This week, the crude oil price trend rose. As of the 15th, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 76.11 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 81.21 dollars/barrel. The US dollar continued to fall, benefiting risky assets. The US dollar index fell sharply on Tuesday, after data showed that the growth of US core consumer prices in November was lower than expected, which further strengthened the expectation that the Federal Reserve would slow down the pace of interest rate increase. It gives the capital market a chance to take a breather. The weakening of the US dollar makes the valuation of crude oil denominated in US dollars higher in a disguised way, and the oil price has the power to rise. The Keystone oil pipeline of the United States and Canada leaked, causing about 14000 barrels of crude oil to spill in the United States, becoming one of the largest oil spills in the United States in the past decade. With the gradual liberalization of China’s epidemic prevention measures, fuel demand is expected to rebound. On the whole, the price of crude oil rose, which affected the domestic market price of paraxylene to maintain stability.

The price trend of the downstream PTA market rose this week. As of the 16th, the average price of the PTA market was 5300-5400 yuan/ton. In terms of PTA supply, PTA started this week more stably. At present, the industry started at around 66%. Driven by the rise in crude oil prices, PTA market prices rose slightly. However, under the pressure of high inventory and cash flow recovery in the downstream polyester industry, the negative pressure has increased. In the textile terminal market, demand remained weak in the off-season, and new orders at the terminal continued to decline. Since the beginning of November, with the terminal texturing in Jiangsu and Zhejiang and the weaving manufacturers’ holidays, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped below 50%. On the whole, the downstream market is weak, which affects the domestic market price of paraxylene to remain stable.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst of the business community, believes that the current crude oil market is in a long short game. The expectation of the global economic recession remains unchanged. The oil market will still face fundamental pressure in the future. There is still a risk of decline in the short term. The terminal downstream operating rate is lower, and the downstream demand is expected to decline. The contradiction between PTA supply and demand is prominent, and the price is not motivated enough. It is expected that the price of paraxylene market will remain stable in the later period.

From December 2, 2022 to December 9, the bidding price of crude benzol will rise, at 5556 yuan/ton last weekend and 5607 yuan/ton this weekend, with a weekly increase of 0.92%.

Crude oil: Some economic data in the United States outperformed expectations, and the possibility of the Federal Reserve’s radical interest rate hike still exists, which suppressed the benefits of OPEC+production reduction and Western sanctions against Russia. The unexpected growth of the US ISM non manufacturing index in November, released on Monday, reflects that the domestic economy is still resilient. The continued economic boom has triggered market concerns about the Federal Reserve’s transition from “dove” to “eagle”, which may disappoint the Federal Reserve’s previous desire to slow down interest rate hikes. The market provided the basis for the Federal Reserve to curb inflation and maintain the monetary tightening path, which affected the crude oil market to decline significantly. The overall global economy is weak, the prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and the economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply. International crude oil futures closed lower on December 8. The settlement price of the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures was 71.46 US dollars/barrel, down 0.55 US dollars or 0.76%. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 76.15 dollars/barrel, down 1.02 dollars or 1.32%. The market was shrouded in a negative atmosphere, and the oil market was dragged down by the fear of economic recession. The expectation of the Federal Reserve to raise interest rates next week will put pressure on oil prices and weaken energy demand.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date./Adjusted Price./Adjusted Amount

November 2./7200./- 250/

November 4./7000./- 200

November 22./6800./- 200

November 29./6500./- 300

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 300 yuan/ton on November 29, 2022, and the current price is 6500 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Chambroad Petrochemical quoted 6550 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6453 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6500 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, slightly recovered in late August and early September, and fell continuously in October and November.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the trend of crude oil in the first half of this week was volatile, and the downstream styrene was stronger. With the continuous decline of pure benzene, the downstream purchasing sentiment was boosted. Under the triple influence, the price of pure benzene rose slightly by about 50 yuan/ton. In the second half of the week, as the crude oil weakened again and the downstream styrene market was weak, the overall market sentiment declined, and the price of pure benzene weakened again slightly, down about 50-75 yuan/ton. The downstream gas buying also declined. Overall, the crude oil price fell nearly 10% this week, which had a great impact on the market. However, the recent supply of pure benzene was relatively sufficient, and the downstream wait-and-see sentiment was strong. The price of pure benzene continued to weaken slightly, and the price of hydrogenated benzene basically fluctuated with that of pure benzene, Downward trend is dominant this week.

Crude benzol market rose by a narrow margin this week. The bidding price of domestic mainstream production areas remained within the range of 30-50 yuan/ton as a whole. The price of Shandong, the main production area, was 5580 yuan/ton this week, up 30 yuan/ton from last week. In terms of supply, coke enterprises maintained the original production limit this week, with limited changes in the operating rate, and the overall supply was slightly strained. In the future, it is expected that the changes of the positive and negative factors in the crude benzol market in the near future are limited. It is expected that the price in the future will remain mainly in consolidation operation, with a limited range of fluctuations. In the future, we will focus on the trend of crude oil and styrene and the commencement of the hydrogenation benzene unit.

Acetic anhydride prices fell in shock this week

According to the data monitored by the business association, the price of acetic anhydride fell in a volatile manner this week. As of December 9, the price of acetic anhydride was 5566.67 yuan/ton, down 2.34% from 5700 yuan/ton on December 4. The decline of acetic anhydride remained this week, the cost of acetic anhydride fell and the demand was weak, and the price of acetic anhydride fell slightly.

The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid in the business community that as of December 9, the price of acetic acid was 3200 yuan/ton, down 3.98% from 3332.50 yuan/ton on December 4. The price of acetic acid fell sharply this week, the cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices fluctuated and stabilized this week

It can be seen from the trend chart of methanol price of the business community that as of December 9, the price of methanol was 2673.33 yuan/ton, up 0.12% from 2670 yuan/ton on December 4. As a whole, the methanol price was volatile and stable this week, and the market operators entered the market cautiously. The methanol market was weak and stable, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride was weakened.

Future outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analysts of the business community, the acetic acid enterprises resumed shipment, the supply of acetic acid increased, the price of acetic acid fell weakly, and the cost of acetic anhydride fell; Downstream demand was weak, and acetic anhydride prices fell in shock. In the future, the cost of acetic anhydride is weak and tends to stabilize. The demand is weak, and the price of acetic anhydride is weak and falls.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business agencies, aniline was stable after rising this week. On December 2, the price was 10438 yuan/ton, and on December 9, the price was 10800 yuan/ton, up 3.47% from last week and 20% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

On the cost side, pure benzene: the fundamentals of pure benzene continue to be weak, and the downstream are more wait-and-see, with average purchase intention; During the week, the crude oil fell continuously, and the cost faced a negative impact on the pure benzene market; Downstream styrene grew slightly, boosting the pure benzene market. At the beginning of the week, the stocks of pure benzene at ports in East China decreased slightly, and the supply pressure eased. On Friday (December 9), the price of pure benzene was 6514 yuan/ton, 0.31% lower than that of last week and 1.46% higher than that of the same period last year.

Nitric acid: The domestic nitric acid price is stable this week. The price was 2433 yuan/ton on December 2, and 2433 yuan/ton on December 9. The price was flat last week, up 2.82% from the same period last year.

Due to the tightening of spot supply of aniline in northern regions, the market is bullish, and the price has risen continuously in the first half of the week. However, the downstream of the terminal is in the traditional off-season, so it is difficult to greatly increase the demand for aniline. As the good supply turns weak, aniline becomes stable and increases on the sidelines.

3、 Future market expectation

At present, the supply and demand of aniline market is temporarily stable, and there is no more good news in the market. It is expected that aniline will stabilize in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the trend of raw materials, the dynamics of aniline device and the downstream picking mood.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash this week was largely stable and slightly dynamic. The average market price of light soda ash was 2638 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 2640 yuan/ton at the weekend. The price rose by 0.08%, down 12.73% compared with the same period last year. On December 11, the commodity index of light soda ash was 135.38, unchanged from yesterday, down 28.41% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 114.38% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash this week is mainly stable, and the price is large, stable and small. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2550-2750 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2650-2750 yuan/ton. At present, soda ash enterprises maintain low inventory.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of glass fell this week. On Monday, the average market price was 18.33 yuan/square meter, and on the weekend, the average market price was 18.08 yuan/ton. The price fell 1.36%, down 30.94% year on year. The spot glass market continued to decline slightly this week. As the demand for expediting at the end of the year is fair in the south, the market demand for entering winter in the north is light, and the winter storage plan is less than expected. The spot delivery of glass is flexible.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 2 kinds of rising commodities, 3 kinds of falling commodities, and 0 kind of zero rising or falling commodities in the list of prices of chlor alkali industry in the 49th week of 2022 (12.5-12.9). The main commodities that rose were caustic soda (0.36%) and light soda ash (0.08%); The main commodities falling were hydrochloric acid (-2.25%), calcium carbide (-0.44%) and PVC (-0.14%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.48%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the price of domestic soda ash is generally stable and slightly dynamic. Recently, soda ash enterprises mainly maintain low inventory, and the overall trading and investment atmosphere is ordinary. The downstream of soda ash is still mostly purchased on demand. The game between upstream and downstream supply and demand is expected to be dominated by the consolidation of soda ash prices in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of December 9, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 15500.00 yuan/ton, which fell by 0.8% compared with the same period last week. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16000 yuan/ton, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable.

This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent superior products was 15,500.00 yuan/ton, the overall market was stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16,000 yuan/ton, the price of PMMA was stable, the downstream just needed to purchase was mainly, the manufacturers gave up profits and took orders. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. was 15,500 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On December 8, the rubber and plastic index was 666 points, unchanged from yesterday, 37.17% lower than the highest point 1060 points (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and 26.14% higher than the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

PMMA analysts from the business community believe that in the short term, PMMA is mainly stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic NMP market fell in a ladder manner in November, and the prices in some regions had fallen to near the cost line by the end of the month. The average price of electronic NMP at the beginning of the month was 28000 yuan/ton, and the average price at the end of the month was 22333 yuan/ton, with a decline of 20.24%.

2、 Analysis and review

As of November 25, the mainstream prices of NMP apron in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/October 27

East China./20000-21000 yuan/ton

Central China/19500-20000 yuan/ton

Southwest China/19000-20000 yuan/ton

In November, the domestic NMP market turned sharply downward, and its performance fell continuously throughout the month, mainly due to the impact of cost and demand. On the cost side: In November, the BDO market fell sharply unilaterally, by 31.27%. The contradiction between supply and demand is growing. Most manufacturers do not publish bidding prices. The market guidance price is reduced by about 500 yuan/ton every week, and the price is continuously lowered. The external guidance price of individual enterprises has dropped to 9500 yuan/ton, maintaining a small number of contract users. At present, the BDO price has fallen below the cost line. It is expected that the BDO industry will actively limit and reduce production in the future.

Demand side: Affected by the cost of raw materials, there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the NMP market, and the willingness to purchase downstream is not strong. At the same time, domestic public health and security incidents have escalated, and transportation in some regions is not smooth. The raw materials of some main materials of superimposed lithium batteries have risen sharply, while the production and sales of some lithium battery manufacturers have declined. According to statistics, since 2021, the sales of new energy vehicles have risen sharply, resulting in the demand for lithium salt exceeding expectations, and the price of lithium carbonate, the main raw material of lithium ion batteries, has risen sharply. According to the data released on November 23 by the business community, the average spot price of battery grade lithium carbonate was close to 590000 yuan/ton. At the beginning of January last year, the price of the raw material was about 50000 yuan/ton, up nearly 12 times. Under the pressure of cost, lithium battery enterprises are not willing to purchase, and the demand for NMP is further suppressed.

3、 Future market forecast

NMP analysts of the business agency believe that the downstream wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the purchase intention is not strong. At the same time, the price of raw material BDO is likely to continue to fall back. It is expected that the NMP market will continue to decline to the bottom in the near future, and the NMP market will decline to the near cost line for consolidation.

Domestic price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of paraxylene that the price of paraxylene declined in November. As of the end of the month, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 8300 yuan/ton, down 3.49% from 8600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, up 13.70% year on year.

In November, the supply of paraxylene was normal, the domestic PX operating rate was more than 60%, the 600,000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical was operating stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical was operating normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong was operating at full load, the unit of Qilu Petrochemical was operating stably, the unit of Urumqi Petrochemical was operating at about 50%, and the domestic paraxylene supply was normal, The commencement of overseas units was normal, and the domestic price of paraxylene declined. In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, and the PX external market price fell. As of the 29th, the closing price was 909-911 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 927-929 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia has maintained. On the whole, the operating rate of paraxylene units in Asia is about 60%. The supply of PX goods in Asia is sufficient, and the domestic market for paraxylene has declined.

In November, the international crude oil price fell sharply, by 9.63%. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $78.20 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was $84.25 per barrel. The Federal Reserve hinted that the interest rate increase is far from over and is not close to the end of monetary tightening. At present, the interest rate increase of the Federal Reserve has limited impact on inflation, which is not enough to reduce inflation. The Federal Reserve may need to take more tightening measures to curb inflation in the future, which will affect the decline of crude oil prices. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC+) once again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022. With the risk of global economic recession intensifying, the future slowdown of demand growth is a certainty, and fuel demand will also face pressure. The most important thing is that the overall economy is weak. The severe epidemic situation in Asia continues to drag down demand expectations. The prospect of energy demand is still not optimistic, and economic weakness depresses oil prices. On the whole, the price of crude oil fell sharply, and the price of paraxylene fell due to the cost.

In November, the domestic PTA spot market declined. As of the end of the month, the average price in the East China market was 5511 yuan/ton, down 3.09% from the beginning of the month. With the improvement of processing costs, the production intention of PTA plants has risen, and most domestic devices have completed annual maintenance. At present, the operating rate of the industry remains above 74%. In addition, PTA’s new capacity is about to be tested, and the accumulated warehouse is expected to rise. The order of textile terminal enterprises is sluggish, and the drag on the demand side may be more obvious. After the end of the traditional peak season of “Jin Jiu Yin Shi”, the downstream polyester plants are more willing to ease the inventory pressure through the way of profit giving promotion and price for volume. However, because the terminal textile enterprises are not willing to take the goods and mainly purchase for rigid demand, the effect of inventory reduction is not good, the polyester plants are forced to choose to reduce the load, the downstream demand is not good, and the price trend of the domestic paraxylene market is declining.

Chen Ling, a PX analyst at the business agency, believes that the current supply side of the crude oil market will continue to play a game against the demand side. Downstream demand is poor, the improvement of terminal orders is limited, polyester inventory pressure rises, profits are compressed again, and PTA prices remain low. In general, it is expected that the market price of paraxylene will decline slightly in the later period.

Recent price trend of sulfuric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic sulfuric acid market price is temporarily stable this week, with the price of sulfuric acid being 321.67 yuan/ton. A year-on-year decrease of 48.81%. On December 4, the sulphuric acid commodity index was 50.07, unchanged from yesterday, down 73.38% from the cycle’s highest point of 188.07 (2022-04-13), and up 58.85% from the lowest point of 31.52 on June 6, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream market fluctuated and rose, while the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was average

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers was temporarily stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream sulfur market rose in a narrow range, with the sulfur price rising from about 1420 yuan/ton at the weekend to 1450.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 2.11%. Compared with the same period last year, it fell by 27.50% year on year. The upstream market rose in shock and cost support increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, with the market price rising from 12071.43 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 12742.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, up 5.56%. A year-on-year decrease of 0.68%. The market price of titanium dioxide in the downstream market was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 15933.33 yuan/ton. A year-on-year drop of 23.34%. Downstream market fluctuates with each other, and downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average.

The market rose slightly after shocks

In the first ten days of December, the domestic sulfuric acid market rose mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream sulfur market has been surging recently, and the cost support has increased. Downstream hydrofluoric acid market rose slightly, while titanium dioxide and ammonium sulfate market declined slightly. Downstream customers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing sulfuric acid, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. The sulfuric acid analysts of the business community believe that the short-term domestic sulfuric acid market price will rise mainly due to the impact of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

In November, the domestic polyester staple fiber price continued to be weak and fluctuated downward. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the average price of domestic polyester staple fiber spot market on November 30 was 7372 yuan/ton, 4.90% lower than the price of 7752 at the beginning of the month, and 2.72% higher than the same period last year. In the futures market, the staple fiber contract at the end of the month closed at 6592 (settlement price 6586), down 2.17% from the beginning of the month.

Industrial chain: 1. The Federal Reserve suggested that the interest rate increase was far from over. OPEC+again lowered the growth expectation of global crude oil demand in 2022, and crude oil prices fell in November. At the end of the month, the main contract of US WTI crude oil futures closed at 80.55 dollars/barrel, down about 6.9% for the whole month. 2. In the first ten days of this month, PTA became stronger due to the positive impact of crude oil and its own supply. However, since the middle of the year, the new device is about to be launched, the cost is weakening, and the demand is not good. Under the superposition of many bad news, the PTA spot price is down, and the futures trend is stronger than the spot full month futures. 3. The fall in crude oil price has weakened the support for ethylene glycol cost, and the downstream demand has remained sluggish. However, due to the impact of poor efficiency, the unplanned maintenance of ethylene glycol has increased recently, and the operating rate remains low. In the case of a large decline in the previous period, the price of ethylene glycol was also at a relatively low level. Ethylene glycol futures prices rebounded slightly throughout the month. 4. The market situation of pure polyester yarn and polyester cotton yarn continued to be weak this month, with a small decline in prices and flat trading. As a whole, it was slow to go to the warehouse, mainly through negotiation.

On the supply and demand side: the stocks of staple fiber manufacturers continued to increase this month, and some large factories reduced production. The domestic sales of terminal textiles are weak, while the export sales are poor. Weaving enterprises have further reduced their burden. The demand for raw materials continues to be weak, mainly for the purchase of rigid demand. The production and sales of staple fibers continue to be sluggish, and the price continues to fall.

Analysts from the business community believe that the market is still evaluating the impact of future crude oil demand prospects and tight supply and other factors on oil prices. It is expected that the crude oil market will remain volatile, and the cost side of polyester staple fiber may remain volatile. The characteristics of the downstream off-season are obvious, and the terminal demand continues to be weak. It is expected that after December, the phenomenon of textile enterprises giving annual leave in advance will further increase, and the stock of staple fibers may continue to accumulate. The staple fiber market may still be weak in December. Pay attention to changes in raw material prices, dynamic changes in units and fluctuations in downstream orders.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the overall trend of mixed xylene fell this month, the price rebounded slightly in the middle of the month, and the decline widened in the last ten days. The price of mixed xylene was 8180 yuan/ton on November 1 and 7540 yuan/ton on November 28, down 7.82% from the beginning of the month and up 24.63% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the tight supply of mixed xylene in the early stage, the price is relatively high compared with toluene. However, under the background of poor overall downstream demand and weak market negotiation, crude oil fell broadly in the month and the cost lost its support, leading to a short mentality of the industry. The price of mixed xylene fell and the decline widened at the end of the month.

In terms of crude oil, although the news of Saudi Arabia’s production reduction in the month brought good news, the economic data of many countries was weak, and the Federal Reserve still had the possibility of significantly increasing interest rates. In addition, some parts of Asia were affected by the epidemic, which dragged down demand. Market participants weighed the prospects of energy supply and demand, and crude oil fell sharply this month. As of November 28, Brent fell by 11.64 dollars/barrel, or 12.27%; WTI fell by 9.29 dollars/barrel, or 10.74%.

In terms of external market, Asian mixed xylene in external market fell by more than 10% this month. On November 28, the price of mixed xylene imported by South Korea was 837 dollars/ton, down 148 dollars/ton month on month, or 15.02%.

In terms of PX market, the domestic PX price stabilized this month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 8600 yuan/ton, which was the same as that at the beginning of the month and increased by 17.81% compared with the same period last year.

In terms of OX market, the price of OX in East China fell broadly this month, at 9300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 8500 yuan/ton at the end of the month, 8.6% lower than the beginning of the month and 23.19% higher than the same period last year.

In terms of gasoline, the overall gasoline price in Shandong Province fluctuated positively in the first half of this month, and began to fall next month. The price at the beginning of the month was 8159 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the month was 7919 yuan/ton, down 2.94% from the beginning of the month and 1.82% from the same period last year.

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the price ceiling of Western crude oil exports to Russia has not yet been finalized. In addition, the epidemic prevention and control in some parts of Asia have affected demand. The Federal Reserve still expects to raise interest rates, and the future trend of oil prices is under pressure. However, OPEC’s adherence to the policy of reducing production may boost oil prices to some extent. It is expected that international oil prices will continue to play a long short game. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

The fundamentals of the mixed xylene market are not good, the short-term trend of crude oil is weak, and the demand is weak. Under the pressure of a negative atmosphere, it is expected that there is still a possibility of decline. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil market, external market trend, mixed xylene unit dynamics, port inventory and downstream demand on mixed xylene prices.

In November, the mainstream factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell first and then rose. The price of calcium carbide fell from 3883.33 yuan/ton on November 1 to 3750.00 yuan/ton on November 29, a decrease of 3.43%. The price at the end of the month fell by 28.34% year-on-year.

On November 28, the carbide commodity index was 98.25, up 1.31 points from yesterday, down 53.71% from the peak of 212.23 points (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 77.06% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

From the supply side, the factory prices of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China fell slightly this month.

From the weekly K column chart of calcium carbide, the price of calcium carbide fell slightly in November, with a maximum drop of 2.61% in a single week.

Cost end: the price of coke fell slightly

The overall price of carbon dioxide in the upstream of carbide fell slightly this month. In November, the average market price of domestic semi coke feedstock fell from 1751.67 yuan/ton on November 1 to 1715 yuan/ton on November 28, a decrease of 2.09%. The upstream carbon price fell slightly, and the carbide cost support weakened.

Demand side: PVC market price drops

The PVC market price in the downstream of calcium carbide fell sharply this month. The PVC market price in this month fell from 6021.43 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6002.86 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 0.31%, and the price at the end of the month fell 34.96% year-on-year. The ex factory price of 1,4 butanediol fell sharply this month, from 14550.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9716.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 33.22%. On the whole, the downstream market of calcium carbide fell sharply this month, and the downstream demand was insufficient.

In the future: in the first ten days of December, the carbide market may fall slightly, mainly finishing. The price of upstream raw material blue charcoal has fallen slightly recently, and the cost of calcium carbide is insufficient. However, the market of 1,4 butanediol and PVC in the downstream fell sharply, and the downstream demand weakened. In the future, it is predicted that carbide prices in northwest China will fall slightly in mid to early December, mainly due to consolidation.

The market of ammonium chloride rose slightly in November. At the beginning of the month, the market demand for ammonium chloride was sluggish, and the price fell slightly; Weak and stable due to cost support in the month; Winter storage was started at the end of this month. In the atmosphere of rising prices of compound fertilizer, urea and other fertilizers, the factory prices of some ammonium chloride enterprises were raised, and the market quotation was rising. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the price of ammonium chloride was 995 yuan/ton, up 3.38% from 962 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and the monthly low was 957 yuan/ton.

Supply and demand: in the middle and late November, the price of compound fertilizer rose, the commencement of construction increased (2.4% at the beginning of the month, 3% to 4% at the end of the month), and the purchase of raw materials increased; In addition, the demand for agricultural fertilizer in Northeast China started, and the orders of compound fertilizer/mixed fertilizer enterprises increased significantly, driving the prices of all kinds of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium fertilizers up; The good demand side pushed the price of ammonium chloride up. Although the demand has increased, domestic soda production has continued 80% of the load, and the supply of ammonium chloride continues to be loose, suppressing the upward range of ammonium chloride.

In November, the price of raw material liquid ammonia rose significantly, and the cost support was stronger. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 28, the price of domestic liquid ammonia was 4590 yuan/ton, up 12.04% from 4096 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. In November, the supply of liquid ammonia was tightened, and in the middle of the month, there was too much temporary overhaul and maintenance of the unit, which led to the supply decline of different degrees in major production areas across the country.

Future forecast: Ammonium chloride analysts from the business community believe that the cost side has risen significantly, the demand side has increased slightly, and although the supply side is still loose, it is expected that the ammonium chloride market will continue to rise tentatively in the later period.

Price trend

In late November, the domestic POM market finished sideways, and the overall price performance was very high. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic POM at the beginning of the month was 13800 yuan/ton, and on November 25, the average price was 13866.67 yuan/ton, up and down by+0.48%.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials, the domestic methanol market has been reorganized in a volatile manner recently, with a small fluctuation range and abundant on-site supply. However, the existing demand has not been significantly boosted, and the domestic methanol market is mainly weak in the short term.

In terms of supply: Recently, the operating rate of domestic POM enterprises has remained at a high level, and the current industry load has decreased compared with that before, more than 80%. The processing profit of the enterprise fluctuates in a narrow range, with a gross profit level of about 2300 yuan per ton, which is acceptable.

Demand: Although the load of POM industry decreased this week, the market supply turned to be abundant. The mentality of producers and traders has been supported by the rise in ex factory prices, but the demand has weakened recently, and there is much room for profit in the on-site shipment negotiations. The enthusiasm of terminal enterprises to prepare goods is average, and the demand follow-up is slightly lagging behind.

Future market forecast

The POM market was weak in late November. The load of domestic polymerization plants decreased by a narrow margin, and some spot logistics were not smooth due to the impact of public health events. On the whole, the supply was abundant. The demand side is relatively weak. Downstream enterprises mainly digest inventory, and pick up goods mostly in small pieces. It is estimated that the POM market may enter the weak consolidation market in the short term.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the figure above, copper prices fell slightly this week. By the end of this week, spot copper had offered 66345 yuan/ton, down 1.97% from 67680 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, down 5.79% year on year.

Copper weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past three months, the price has risen by 6 or fallen by 5, even by 1. Recently, the copper price has recovered slightly after the early rise.

Macro aspect: the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council: resolutely oppose the two tendencies, and continue to rectify “layer by layer”; The “big hawk” of the Federal Reserve: further interest rate hikes are required to reach the “restrictive level”, at least 5% – 5.25%. So far, the impact of interest rate hikes on inflation is limited. Recently, the officials of the Federal Reserve made another hawkish statement that the Federal Reserve will further increase interest rates. The 50BP interest rate increase is also a significant increase in interest rates. Therefore, the decline of the dollar has slowed down, and copper prices are also under pressure.

Supply side: LME does not restrict the delivery of Russian metal, which also reduces the risk of market position squeeze. However, domestic and foreign inventories are still at a low level, and the inventory has increased slightly this week. At present, the overhaul of copper smelting enterprises in Fujian market in South China has been completed, and the output has gradually rebounded. However, although the epidemic interference in Henan, Xinjiang, Liaoning, Inner Mongolia and other places continued, it did not affect production, and the impact was more on the speed of transportation and delivery. Therefore, the short-term electrolytic copper output will continue to increase slightly.

Demand side: The copper price rises too fast in the short term, which also hurts downstream consumption, and it is difficult to support the copper price to continue to rise significantly.

Inventory: On November 17, copper in the previous period rose 9592 tons to 59025 tons from the beginning of the week. LME copper inventory rose 3125 tons to 80025 tons, up 3.6% from the beginning of the week.

To sum up, the current macro environment is neutral. After the overhaul, the domestic copper output has rebounded. Although the inventory has increased, it is still at a low level, supporting the copper price. The downstream demand is general, and the short-term copper price is expected to fall into a pattern of shock and weakness.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of November 18, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 8886.67 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday and 7.11% lower than the price at the beginning of the month.

The epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable this week. From the supply and demand side, the supply side devices have not changed much. The downstream staged replenishment has improved the market transaction atmosphere, eased the inventory pressure, and the enterprise quotation has tentatively increased. However, with the downstream replenishment, the market atmosphere has weakened, and small orders are just needed. This week, the epoxy chloropropane market has been deadlocked.

In terms of upstream and downstream, the raw propylene has been operating weakly in the near future, and the raw glycerin has been stable in a large scale, with limited cost support for epichlorohydrin. The reference price of the downstream epoxy resin was 16833.33 on November 17, a decrease of 8.68% compared with November 1 (18433.33), which generally supported the epichlorohydrin market.

The epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is still there, the actual support for supply and demand is average, and the market game is dominated by wait-and-see. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will still be in a stalemate in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the monitoring of the business community, as of the 18th, the average price in the domestic market was 24000 yuan/ton, down 1.64% on a weekly basis. The price of magnesium ingots fell weakly this week, with a cumulative decline of 300-500 yuan/ton. The psychology of buying up rather than buying down was obvious, and the demand remained low.

Raw materials

The average market price of ferrosilicon in Ningxia is 8142.86 yuan/ton. On Friday, futures prices rose significantly and spot prices eased. The price of coke has also retreated. There is a market rumor that the capacity replacement in Inner Mongolia will maintain a natural transition state, which is not mandatory. Most coke enterprises are mainly wait-and-see.

Downstream

The price of magnesium powder and magnesium alloy in the downstream follows the weak and steady progress of magnesium ingot, and the overall demand is average, only supported by rigid demand. Under the influence of the energy crisis and exchange rate, the actual performance of foreign orders was flat.

Future market forecast

Affected by the poor demand, the market has depressed the factory quotation, and most of the industry people are cautious, but they are not optimistic about the future market. However, considering the high price of ferrosilicon and raw coal, the price of magnesium ingot is basically near the cost line at present, and the decline of magnesium ingot is limited. It is expected to operate weakly and stably in the short term.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 179.33 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 163.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 8.92%. A year-on-year decrease of 45.19%. On November 20, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.98, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.83% from the peak of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 139.04% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream procurement is generally

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market declined slightly, and the cost support weakened. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market rose slightly, from 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 2021.25 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.19%. A year-on-year drop of 18.72%; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the market price was 957.50 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is weakened and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average.

Future market forecast

In late November, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has declined slightly in the near future, and the cost support has weakened. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride markets have consolidated at a low level, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

This week (11.11-11.18), the acrylonitrile market rose and fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11340 yuan/ton, down 0.44% from 11390 yuan/ton last Friday; 2.16% lower than the weekly high of 11590 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, the manufacturer’s listing price was raised, and the merchant’s offer rose. In the middle of the month, some manufacturers’ listing prices were lowered, and the market’s offer fell slightly. At present, the self lifting price of acrylonitrile is 10900~11600 yuan/ton.

This week (11.11-11.18), the pressure on the domestic acrylonitrile supply side was still high. Although the 260000 t/a Kolur equipment will be stopped for maintenance since the 10th of this month; However, the 450000 t/a unit of Jilin Petrochemical was upgraded to 70% load operation; The load of 780000 t/a acrylonitrile unit in Sierbang was increased to more than 80%; In addition, recent production of acrylonitrile devices such as Tianchen Qixiang and Liaoning Jinfa has increased the overall supply of acrylonitrile industry.

This week (11.11-11.18), the raw propylene market declined slightly, and the cost of acrylonitrile declined. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the domestic propylene price was 7230 yuan/ton, down 1.36% from 7330 yuan/ton last Friday. Due to the large increase last week, the downstream appeared to wait and see, and the demand was restrained. In order to stabilize the flow of goods, the refinery lowered the price and gave back the increase. The overall supply and demand of propylene market is stable, with downstream demand as the main demand. However, this year, there are many new capacity, relatively loose supply, and great resistance to price rise. Affected by the sharp drop of crude oil on Friday, the market mentality was depressed, and the downstream receiving was slightly cautious.

Recently, the inventory of ABS petrochemical manufacturers downstream of acrylonitrile has accumulated slightly, the high level of industry commencement has declined slightly, and the support for acrylonitrile has weakened slightly; The inventory of the textile industry has accumulated, the demand for acrylic fiber has weakened, some manufacturers’ acrylic fiber devices have been running at a lower load, and their support for acrylonitrile has weakened.

Future forecast: acrylonitrile analysts from the business community believe that the cost of acrylonitrile has dropped slightly at present, the commencement of downstream ABS and acrylic fiber industries has declined slightly, and the supply side pressure has rebounded. It is expected that the acrylonitrile market will continue to fall slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring sample data of the business community, the average price of melamine enterprises as of November 11 was 8300.00 yuan/ton, up 0.40% compared with the price on Monday and 0.81% compared with the price on October 11.

This week, the quotation of enterprises in the melamine market was mainly stable, and the price of some enterprises was adjusted. From the perspective of cost, the price of raw material urea has risen recently, and the cost has risen against the support of melamine. From the perspective of supply and demand, the overall operating rate of the melamine market is relatively high. Domestic downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, local transportation is limited, and the market trading atmosphere is general.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of upstream urea was 2584.00 on November 10, an increase of 3.11% compared with November 1 (2506.00).

Melamine analysts from the business community believe that the current cost support is strong, the supply side operation rate is high, the demand side performance is average, and the market transaction is just in demand. It is expected that in the short term, the melamine market will operate with a subjective expectation of stability, and more attention should be paid to the changes in raw material prices.

After the accelerated decline at the beginning of the month, the butadiene rubber market rose slightly this week (11.4-11.11). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 11400 yuan/ton, up 0.62% from 11330 yuan/ton last Friday. The ex factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber for two barrels of oil was temporarily stable this week. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the ex factory price of cis polybutadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11200 yuan/ton. Although the downstream commencement continued to decline, with the price of Shunding reaching a new low, the downstream inquiries increased, and the business offer was slightly adjusted. As of November 11, the market offer of Shunding Rubber was 11200~11750 yuan/ton, while the private Shunding mainstream offer was 10700~11300 yuan/ton.

In the near future, Haopu 60000 t/a and Lande 30000 t/a cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber plants will be shut down for maintenance. However, in the later stage, the production pressure of new units such as Zhejiang Petrochemical is still large, and the supply of cis polybutadiene rubber will continue to be loose.

This week (11.4-11.11), the raw butadiene market fell sharply, dragging down the butadiene rubber market. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of butadiene was 6603 yuan/ton, down 7.60% from 7145 yuan/ton last Friday.

The natural rubber market rose slightly this week (11.4-11.11), which has weak support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of November 11, the price of natural rubber was 11800 yuan/ton, up 1.64% from 11610 yuan/ton last Friday.

The demand side is still weak. The commencement of downstream tire enterprises in November continued to decline, and the demand side is not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. According to the business agency, the construction of semi steel tires in Shandong is less than 60%, and that of full steel tires is around 50%.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business association, the supply pressure of cis polybutadiene rubber is still present, the cost is down, and the demand is light. It is expected that cis polybutadiene rubber will fall again in the later period.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, since November, the domestic PTA spot market has experienced strong fluctuations. As of November 14, the average price in the East China market was 5809 yuan/ton, up 2.15% from the beginning of the month and 16.71% year on year. It is mainly driven by the contraction of the supply side and the upward shift of the cost side. Specifically:

In terms of PTA supply, recently, with the reduction of 80% to 90% in some plants in South China and the maintenance of 350000 tons of small chemical fiber lines in Yizheng, the operating rate of PTA devices has continued to shrink, and the current operating rate of the industry has fallen back to around 75%. The overall market supply shows a tightening trend, with less cash in circulation and less readily available cash sold by traders.

The crude oil price showed high volatility. In November, OPEC+started to reduce production, and the crude oil supply is expected to decrease by 1 million barrels per day. In addition, the demand for refined oil is still good, and the short-term demand for crude oil is strong in the fourth quarter when refinery operation remains high. As of November 11, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 88.96 dollars/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 95.99 dollars/barrel.

However, the demand side is still the key factor restricting the PTA price. Downstream polyester enterprises have accelerated production reduction. At the same time, Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms and texturing have rapidly shrunk. At present, the comprehensive operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang looms has dropped to below 60%. Some factories have holidays in advance. Downstream costs are weak to keep up. Terminal orders are scarce, and the market is generally pessimistic.

Analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand structure of crude oil is still biased, the oil price oscillation is strong, the supply of PX is still tight, and the cost support function appears. However, PTA unit maintenance will restart and new production capacity is expected to be put into production, so supply may increase. At the same time, I heard that some end weaving enterprises have prepared to start their annual leave in advance. The terminal demand is weak, and the weak supply and demand of PTA is a drag on their prices. Therefore, PTA will focus on weak shock adjustment in the short term. In the future, we still need to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and the production progress of new units.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the polyacrylamide commodity index on November 14 was 94.53, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.23% from the highest point of the cycle, 111.51 (2021-11-03), and up 14.04% from the lowest point, 82.89, on August 2, 2020. (Note: Period refers to April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: According to the data monitoring of the business community, the mainstream market of China’s polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in the first half of November was mainly stable, with the main report of 15428.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, 15471.43 yuan/ton on the 14th of the month, and a slight increase of 0.28% in the half month. Last month, following the policy of stopping production and resuming production, the manufacturer started work normally with sufficient inventory; Earlier this month, water treatment manufacturers in Gongyi, Henan, said that the impact of public health events continued, with limited transportation, slow delivery of goods and reduced orders; Although the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to rise, the acrylic acid is stable and weak, the downstream demand is general, and the polyacrylamide market is stable and fluctuates slightly.

Raw material acrylonitrile: according to the data of the business community, the acrylonitrile market in the first half of November continued to rise continuously since the beginning of September, and the high level was firm. On November 14, the price of bulk water in the acrylonitrile market was 11370 yuan/ton, 3.65% higher than the price of 10970 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. On the one hand, the commencement of acrylonitrile unit is lower, on the other hand, the raw propylene market is significantly higher and the cost is rising, and the downstream commencement continues to maintain a high level, forming a rigid demand support; Acrylonitrile market is expected to remain high in the short term.

Raw acrylic acid: according to the data of the business community, the acrylic acid market in the first half of November was stable and fell, and the transaction atmosphere in the downstream procurement market was light and stable. On November 14, the average price of acrylic acid in East China was 8033.33 yuan/ton, 2.03% lower than the price of 8200 yuan/ton on November 1, 0.82% lower than the same period last year, and 54.27% lower than the same period last year. According to the analysis, at present, the pressure on the cost side is increasing, and the downstream is mainly following up on demand, with little change in the supply and demand side. It is expected that the acrylic market will be mainly reorganized and operated in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the upstream and downstream news guidance.

LNG for production. According to the data of business cooperatives, the price of domestic LNG fell by about 13.54% in the first half of this month: the market price of LNG was about 4712 yuan/ton on November 14, and the average market price was 5450 yuan/ton on the first day. Recently, due to the downturn in terminal demand, the market for liquefied natural gas continued to run weak due to the oversupply in the market. The industry held a wait-and-see attitude, with gains and losses in various regions of China. Although the cost has some support, the demand side has not improved, and the LNG market is expected to consolidate in the short term.

Future forecast: The economic downturn, the multiple impacts of public health events, and the continued weak demand will lead to a weaker market this year than the same period in previous years. With few orders and sufficient inventory, the surge of raw material acrylonitrile did not drive the rise of polyacrylamide. Judging from the current situation, the heating season is coming, and the future market will remain stable and weak.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3883.33 yuan/ton at the weekend to 3733.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a drop of 3.86%. A year-on-year drop of 17.04%. On November 10, the carbide commodity index was 97.82, unchanged from yesterday, 53.91% lower than the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and 76.28% higher than the minimum of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost is generally supported, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market was adjusted at a low level, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1720-1810 yuan/ton this weekend, and the price is temporarily stable. The PVC market price this week rose from 5992.86 yuan/ton at the weekend to 6057.14 yuan/ton at the weekend, up 1.07%. A year-on-year decrease of 45.45%. The PVC market price rose slightly, downstream customers became more active in calcium carbide procurement, and the downstream PVC market had a positive impact on calcium carbide prices.

Calcium carbide may rise in the market after shocks

In the middle and late November, calcium carbide market rose mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue charcoal was consolidated at a low level. The cost of calcium carbide was generally supported. The downstream PVC market rose in a narrow range, and the downstream demand increased. In the middle and late November, calcium carbide prices in northwest China may rise in a narrow range.

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole experienced a narrow range of shocks, while the Henan market was strong and pushed up slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4580 yuan/ton on October 31 and 4590 yuan/ton on November 4, with a weekly increase of 0.22%, 4.02% higher than the same period last year.

As of November 4, the market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, mainstream quotation

Jiangxi, 4570 yuan/ton

Hebei, 4560 yuan/ton

Henan Province, 4250-4620 yuan/ton

This week, the domestic dimethyl ether market as a whole was mainly weak, with Henan market rising slightly and Hebei and Jiangxi markets temporarily stable. The price of raw material methanol remains weak, and the cost support is average. There is no obvious improvement in downstream demand, transportation in some areas is not smooth, shipment is blocked, and the factory gives way to profits. The supply in Henan is relatively low, and the factory is willing to support the price. The price has increased by 20 yuan/ton this week.

In general, the support of methanol for dimethyl ether is limited. The downstream just needs to supplement the reservoir mainly on the low side. With the cold weather in the future, the demand may gradually increase. It is expected that dimethyl ether will continue to operate in a narrow range in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP wire drawing material was 7925 yuan/ton on October 30 and 7975 yuan/ton on November 7, with a weekly increase or decrease of+0.63%, which was -2.25% higher than the price on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP fiber material was 8033.33 yuan/ton on October 30, and the average price was 8100 yuan/ton on November 7. The weekly increase or decrease was+0.83%, which was -1.22% higher than the price on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of PP melt blown material was 9016.67 yuan/ton on October 30, and the average price was 9050 yuan/ton on November 7. The weekly increase and decrease range was+0.37%, which was -0.55% higher than the price on October 1.

Cause analysis

Last week, the news of the Federal Reserve’s interest rate increase was solid, and the negative mentality brought by the global high inflation macroeconomic continued to affect the market. In addition, domestic health events rebounded in the week, and the risk area increased to about 4700, which affected the shipping and receiving of some enterprises. At the same time, the typhoon weather in South China at the weekend affected the port suitcase business, and multiple pressures led to greater resistance to the rise of the PP spot market.

In terms of raw materials: after the fall of crude oil in early November, there was a lot of news about the expected tightening of supply. The price rebounded in the second half of the week, and the cost side of oil to polypropylene supported the recovery. Propane was boosted by the higher external market price, while methanol price was firm, and the support for PDH and FMTP was strong and even. In general, the support of polypropylene raw material end is acceptable.

In terms of supply: Last week, the total domestic PP output declined steadily, with a total of about 600000 tons of PP produced in the week. Compared with last week, the capacity loss increased by more than 3000 tons. Due to the pressure of on-site shipment, the enterprise load is cautious and stable, and some enterprises reduce the load or conduct maintenance. The supply of goods decreased during the week, and the pressure on spot prices from suppliers decreased by a narrow margin.

Demand: last week, PP operated in a narrow range of shocks, falling first and then rising in the week. The spot shipment is affected by typhoon weather, health events and other aspects. The market delivery is smooth, and the terminal factory needs to follow up on the whole, which is slightly lagging behind. The main force of wire drawing materials downstream plastic knitting and BOPP order preparation enthusiasm is not high, and the inventory level runs horizontally.

The price of non-woven fabrics downstream of fiber material and melt blown PP is flat, the digestion speed of terminal products is stable, the profit of the enterprise is average, and the price is bottomed by cost and demand. At present, the situation of international health events in various countries is still not optimistic, and the epidemic situation in China and neighboring countries has rebounded recently. However, it has limited pulling effect on medical melt blown cloth materials. The domestic and foreign demand has not significantly helped, and the support for spot prices is poor. There is abundant supply of melt blown materials in the market, and the saturation of domestic melt blown materials and cloth enterprises is high. The market competition is strong.

Future market forecast

Last week, with some funds leaving the market, the short-term profit margin of PP market was exhausted, and the market returned to the fundamental market of supply and demand game. The industry load decreased by a narrow margin, and the inventory decreased. The terminal just needs goods, but the follow-up order is slightly insufficient. Although petrochemical plants are willing to raise prices, the confidence of manufacturers and traders is not strong, and the market is generally empty due to macroeconomic impact. At present, the core guidance is still the far upstream international oil price. It is expected that the PP price will fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term, focusing on consolidation and operation.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream carbide manufacturers in northwest China dropped from 3950 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 3883.33 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 1.69%, 33.43% YoY. On November 6, the carbide commodity index was 101.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 52.06% from the peak of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 83.37% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost is generally supported, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fell slightly, while that of the downstream PVC market fell slightly. The price of Shenmulan charcoal is about 1720-1810 yuan/ton this weekend, with a slight decline. The PVC market price this week dropped from 6021.43 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 5992.86 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a drop of 0.47%, 36.72% YoY. PVC market prices fell slightly, downstream customers’ enthusiasm for calcium carbide procurement weakened, and the downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

Downstream market fell in shock, while carbide market fell in shock

In the middle and late November, the market of calcium carbide fell mainly due to narrow shocks. The price of raw material blue charcoal fell slightly, the cost support of calcium carbide weakened, and the PVC market in the downstream fell in a narrow range, with general downstream demand. The price of calcium carbide in northwest China may fall in a narrow range in mid to late November.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price rose slightly this week. As of November 4, spot nickel was quoted at 195500 yuan/ton, up 4.99% from the beginning of the week and 35.47% year on year.

Nickel weekly fluctuation chart

According to the weekly ups and downs chart of the business community, in the past 12 weeks, the nickel price rose by 4, fell by 7 and leveled by 1. Recently, the nickel price is still in a wide range of shocks.

Nickel industry chain

LME Nickel Inventory

As of November 3, LME nickel inventory was 51432 tons, 156 tons less than the previous day. In the last month, LME nickel inventory decreased by 360 tons, a decrease of 0.7%.

On the macro level, the Federal Reserve raised the interest rate by 75bp as scheduled. Powell suggested that the pace of interest rate increase might slow down, but the high point of interest rate would be higher, and the interest rate would stay at the high level for a longer time, which was slightly hawkish and weakened risk appetite. The Bank of England raised interest rates by 75 basis points as scheduled, the largest rate in 33 years, emphasizing that the peak interest rate will be lower than the market expectation; In October, the ISM non manufacturing industry in the United States hit a new low since May 2020, which coincided with the downturn of the manufacturing industry.

In terms of supply, the rainy season has arrived in the Philippines, and the supply of nickel ore at the mine end has entered a tightening stage, with firm prices. With the support of the ore end cost, the price of the ferronickel plant is firm, and the price center continues to move upward in the near future. The Indonesian government plans to release the nickel export tax policy in the third quarter of this year, but it has not yet implemented it. However, the news surfaced again last week. It is understood that the collection of NPI and ferronickel tax is a matter of time. If the export tax is implemented, Chinese stainless steel plants will have to spend more money on raw materials. If a 10% export tax is levied on the current NPI price, the cost of 304 stainless steel made in China will increase by 152 dollars per ton.

In terms of demand, the downstream acceptance of pure nickel is limited under the continuous high nickel price. Traders continue to reduce the spot premium, but the deal is average. The output of stainless steel in the downstream is increasing, and the demand for new energy is still strong, and the supply and demand in nickel market is relatively strong.

To sum up, the nickel industry chain is running strongly on the whole, the stainless steel industry’s output has increased demand for nickel, and the raw material supply side has disturbed the cost support. However, the domestic manufacturing industry’s PMI data is weak, the pace of repair has been disturbed by the epidemic, and the stainless steel import data has weakened. The nickel price is expected to maintain a wide range of shocks in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, after the festival, pure benzene rose and fell continuously. On October 1, the price was 7850-8200 yuan/ton (the average price was 7926 yuan/ton); On October 28, the price was 7450-7530 yuan/ton (average price was 7472 yuan/ton), down 5.72% this month and 2.07% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and review

Due to the wide rise of crude oil during the festival, the price of pure benzene in Asia has risen, which is good for boosting the domestic pure benzene market. The price of pure benzene has risen. However, with the increase of downstream maintenance, the overall demand side has weakened. In addition, the market of styrene, the main product, has dropped continuously, and the focus of market negotiation has weakened. The downward channel has been opened in the middle of the month. The pure benzene inventory of East China ports rose again in the late ten days, and a large number of ships are expected to arrive at the port in the later period. The industry is bearish on the future market, and the decline at the end of the month expanded.

In this month, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was raised twice and lowered four times, down 400 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton (down 450 yuan/ton to 7450 yuan/ton in Hebei and Shandong).

In terms of crude oil, due to the OPEC+meeting’s decision to significantly reduce production from November, crude oil rose broadly during the National Day holiday. However, in the context of multi country interest rate hikes, economic data is weak, and oil prices continue to play a game around demand concerns and supply shortages. As of October 28, Brent rose by 7.81 dollars/barrel, or 8.88%; WTI rose by 8.41 dollars/barrel, or 10.58%.

On the foreign side, the overall trend of pure benzene in Asia in the external market this month was first up and then down, which was boosted by the rise of crude oil in the early stage. On October 28, the reference price of pure benzene in the Korean market was US $843/ton, a month on month drop of US $29/ton, or 3.33%; East China imported pure benzene at 870 dollars/ton, down 40 dollars/ton month on month, or 4.4%.

Downstream

3、 Future market forecast

On the cost side (crude oil), the market is worried about the economic and demand prospects under the background of multi country interest rate increases; However, OPEC+plans to reduce production, and the geopolitical situation still worries about the tension of energy supply. It is expected that the international oil price will continue to play a long short game with a volatile trend. In the future, we will continue to pay attention to the geopolitical situation, the latest production capacity policy of OPEC+, the stock dynamics of U.S. crude oil and refined oil, and the impact of global economic conditions on crude oil prices.

As China is at the high price of pure benzene, the import volume of pure benzene will remain high in the future. Domestically, there are many downstream overhaul devices for pure benzene at present, and the demand remains just in demand. It is estimated that the demand may improve in November. In the later period, it is expected that the second phase of Weilian Chemical and the Zhongwei Guangdong Petrochemical Plant will be put into production, and the supply of pure benzene will increase. On the whole, the short-term market demand is insufficient, and the trend of pure benzene continues to be weak. Continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil, external market trend, pure benzene and downstream unit dynamics, demand side changes, etc. on the price of pure benzene.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PA66 market price rose in October, and the spot price of each brand may be stable or rising. As of October 31, the ex factory price offered by the glue injection molding sample enterprises in the business agency PA66 was about 25250 yuan/ton on average, up and down by+2.02% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid market in the first half of this month continued to benefit the supply side, and prices rose rapidly. In the second half of the month, the decline of pure benzene brought negative cost and weak demand, which reversed the correction. The supply of hexamethylene diamine is still tight, and merchants are reluctant to sell. The market is firm, and the mentality of enterprises and merchants is stable.

The upstream raw material market is generally strong, and the cost side of PA66 is strongly supported. In terms of industry operating rate, recently, PA66 enterprises have been affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry load has been limited, and the market spot supply is tight, but the inventory has increased in the second half of the month. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises prefer to maintain production just because they need to follow up with goods. The traditional peak season “Silver Ten” volume is less than expected. Downstream people are resistant to high price goods, and the factory demand release is less than that of previous years. The shipping speed of merchants slowed down, the transactions on the floor were average, and the market was in a stalemate.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot price of PA66 in October has risen steadily. The raw material side market remained strong, and the cost side support of PA66 was fair. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the pressure on the supply side is still small, and the demand side is slow to get goods. It is expected that PA66 will weaken in the short term due to the lagging consumption follow-up.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of soda ash in this month is temporarily stable. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was about 2670 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 2660 yuan/ton, down 0.37%, 25.59% compared with the same period last year. On October 27, the commodity index of light soda ash was 136.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.86% from the highest point of 189.10 (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and up 116.01% from the lowest point of 63.15 on November 18, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the overall price of soda ash in this month has been consolidated. The current mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2600-2850 yuan/ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2600-2700 yuan/ton. Some data show that the inventory of soda ash this week is about 310000 tons, and the overall operating rate of the industry is about 89%.

Demand: According to the monitoring of the business community, the overall price of glass in this month was consolidated. The average price of glass at the beginning of the month was 19.72 yuan/square meter, and the average price at the end of the month was 19.73 yuan/square meter, with a slight increase of 0.05%. On the whole, the spot price of glass market in October rose in the first ten days of October, and fell in the second ten days of October. The market trading and investment situation in North China Shahe region is general, the market price is relatively flexible, and the enthusiasm of traders and downstream customers to replenish goods is general. Later, they will wait and see more, and the overall manufacturer’s inventory has decreased. In East China, the market trading situation is general, the market price is more flexible, and the inventory is reduced slightly. The overall production and sales in central China are not good. The prices of manufacturers have been reduced sporadically. Downstream and traders have replenished goods as needed, and the inventory has increased. The spot delivery of glass in South China is general, and downstream enterprises replenish as needed, with production and sales basically balanced. The production and marketing in the southwest are basically balanced, and the downstream is more wait-and-see. The glass market in northwest China is average, and the inventory has increased. The market trend in Northeast China is general, and the procurement is mainly on demand.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 42nd week of 2022 (10.17-10.21), there were 1 rising commodity, 2 falling commodity, and 2 zero rising and falling commodities in the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities that rose were hydrochloric acid (1.88%); The main commodities falling were caustic soda (-2.37%) and PVC (-0.69%). The average rise and fall this week was -0.23%.

Analysts from the business society believe that: according to the survey data of the business society, the domestic soda ash price is generally stable and slightly dynamic, but the overall trading atmosphere is relatively general. The downstream of soda ash is still mainly purchased on demand. Near the end of the month, the market will mainly operate stably, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be consolidated in the later period, depending on the downstream market demand.

Recent domestic isobutyraldehyde price trend

As can be seen from the figure above, the market price of isobutyraldehyde rose sharply in October, from 5933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 6600.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.24%.

On October 30, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 35.36, unchanged from yesterday, down 66.51% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 (2021-09-16), and up 17.40% from the lowest point of 30.12 on October 7, 2022. (Note: the cycle refers to 2021-09-01 to now). From the weekly histogram of isobutyraldehyde, the overall isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in October, with a maximum weekly increase of 10.11%.

Domestic isobutyraldehyde market in October

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of domestic mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose slightly in October, and the manufacturer’s inventory was average.

The upstream support is weakened, and the downstream demand is general

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of isobutyraldehyde, the upstream propylene market of isobutyraldehyde declined slightly in October. The price of propylene fell from 7620.60 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7136.60 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 6.35%. A year-on-year decrease of 10.24%. The weakening of upstream cost support has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde price.

Downstream neopentyl glycol market fluctuated in a narrow range in October. The price of neopentyl glycol fluctuated around 10066.67 yuan/ton. The downstream market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the downstream manufacturers were generally enthusiastic about purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the first half of November, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may slightly fluctuate and decline. Upstream propylene prices fell slightly, and cost support weakened. However, there is a downward trend in the market of neopentyl glycol in the downstream. Downstream factories are less active in purchasing isobutyraldehyde, and the product trend is downward under the contradiction between supply and demand. The isobutyraldehyde analysts from the business community believe that the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may suffer a slight shock and decline in the short term under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly this month. The price of hydrochloric acid rose from 166.67 yuan/ton on October 1 to 186.67 yuan/ton on October 28, an increase of 12.00%. The price at the end of the month fell 58.88% year-on-year.

On October 27, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 47.37, unchanged from yesterday, down 65.65% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 163.46% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Upstream support improved and downstream procurement weakened

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market rose slightly this month, and the downstream demand was average.

From the perspective of upstream and downstream industrial chains, the upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, giving hydrochloric acid some support. The downstream ammonium chloride market declined slightly. The market price of ammonium chloride fell from 1012.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 980.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 3.21% and a year-on-year decline of 15.15%. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market declined slightly. The market price fell from 2043.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2011.25 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a drop of 1.59%, and a year-on-year drop of 23.30% compared with the same period last year. Downstream market declined slightly, and downstream manufacturers’ purchasing enthusiasm for hydrochloric acid weakened.

The market fell slightly after shocks

In the middle and first ten days of November, the market of hydrochloric acid fell mainly due to slight fluctuations. The upstream liquid chlorine market is average, and the cost support is average. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride market prices fell slightly, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak. The analysts of the business association believe that the recent market of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate slightly.

In October, the domestic propane market trend was relatively strong, and Shandong propane market rose first and then declined, with an overall increase. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5578.25 yuan/ton on October 1 and 5645.75 yuan/ton on October 26, with a monthly increase of 1.21% and a year-on-year decrease of 15.24%.

As of October 26, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region., October 26

In South China, 5450-5550 yuan/ton

North China, 5750-5800 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5650-5730 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5700-5850 yuan/ton

In October, the trend of domestic propane market was relatively firm, and the ex factory price of Shandong propane market rose first and then fell. After the National Day holiday, the domestic propane market was driven by the rise of international crude oil during the holiday, ushering in a wave of growth. In addition, there was a certain demand for replenishment in the downstream after the holiday. The enthusiasm for entering the market was good, the manufacturers had a firm attitude, and the price increased widely. Subsequently, with the decline of international crude oil, the market mentality was affected. The downstream was cautious, and the delisting consumed inventory. The market trading atmosphere was weaker than in the early stage, and the propane market price fell back. However, in October as a whole, Shandong’s propane market rose more than its decline.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 590 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars/ton from last month; Butane was 560 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars/ton from last month.

On the 27th, near the end of the month, supported by the cost side, the international crude oil rose by 3% on a single day, bringing obvious benefits to the market, and the Shandong propane market stopped falling and rising. In addition, November is coming. With the cooling weather and the arrival of the fuel market peak season, the terminal demand is expected to continue to grow. It is expected that the propane market price will be firm in November, or shake the host.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in October 2022, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to show an upward trend, and the prices continued to rise. On October 26, the average domestic mixed price of industrial lithium carbonate was 551000 yuan/ton, which was 9.94% higher than that at the beginning of the month (the average domestic mixed price of industrial carbon on October 1 was 501200 yuan/ton). On October 26, the domestic mixed average price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 573000 yuan/ton, which was 10.7% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (October 1: the domestic mixed average price of carbon was 517600 yuan/ton).

Market supply

By observing market changes, lithium carbonate prices continued to rise after the National Day holiday. During the holiday, the factory production was normal, and the lithium carbonate shipment was relatively stable. However, the lithium carbonate output of large factories was dominated by long delivery orders, and there were relatively few lithium carbonate orders in the market. In late October, lithium carbonate enterprises were basically in a normal state of operation, but the tight market supply situation has not been eased. However, due to the impact of epidemic control in some regions, logistics and transportation problems have greatly affected the shipment of lithium carbonate, leading to the rising price of lithium carbonate.

The most striking thing about upstream raw materials is that the auction price is known as the “lithium price vane” “Pilbara spodumene concentrate was auctioned. On October 24, Pilbara Minerals conducted a new round of lithium concentrate auction, and the bidding price was about 7255 US dollars/ton, up by 155 US dollars/ton, or 2.2%, compared with the transaction price of Pilbara on October 18, 2022. The amount of ore in this auction was 5000 tons, and the concentrate grade was 5.5%. The cost price of 1 ton of LCE was about 550000 yuan/ton. It is expected that this batch of ore will be delivered in the middle of November. Considering the logistics cycle It will enter the market in January to February.

Demand side

With the end of the holiday, the downstream inventory consumption and normal purchase demand remained unchanged, while the operating rate of the terminal market increased and the market purchase demand continued to increase. With the continuation of the “golden nine and silver ten”, new energy vehicles entered the traditional sales peak season, and the production of energy vehicles continued to increase, so the demand for battery raw materials rose, and the price rose again and again. In September 2022, the production and sales of new energy vehicles will continue to maintain a rapid growth, reaching 755000 vehicles and 708000 vehicles respectively, with a month on month growth of 9.3% and 6.2%.

Later this year, the new energy subsidy will completely decline, and some car enterprises will enter the demand for stock in advance, and the demand for energy batteries will increase, so the lithium battery manufacturers’ demand for raw materials will also increase significantly. Downstream production increase has driven the price increase in sentiment. The purchasing sentiment has not decreased, and the transaction price continues to rise.

The price of lithium hydroxide in the downstream market rose. Due to the high price of spodumene in the upstream, the cost support is still strong. The lithium hydroxide market is strongly supported by the high price of lithium carbonate. However, domestic orders for lithium hydroxide exports remain hot, domestic market spot resources are limited, downstream high nickel ternary demand is steadily rising, procurement enthusiasm is high, and enterprise quotations in the lithium hydroxide market continue to rise.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate rose first and then stabilized. The rise in the price of phosphorus and iron sources before the holiday supported the price of iron phosphate. The price of lithium salt continued to rise due to the tight supply of downstream goods. The raw materials drove the manufacturing cost of lithium iron phosphate to rise, driving the price up. Subsequently, the price of lithium iron phosphate was temporarily stable, and the tight balance was maintained under the continuous increase of lithium iron phosphate.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of the business community, the spot price quotation of the lithium carbonate market is still showing an upward trend. With the arrival of winter in the fourth quarter, Qinghai and other regions will be affected by low temperature, and the output may decline slightly. However, the downstream year-end stock mentality continues, and the market demand will remain high. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will remain high and volatile in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk commodity data, this week the Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the quotation was basically stable. The average price of yellow phosphorus is 37250 yuan/ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, Yunnan Guizhou yellow phosphorus market was mainly wait-and-see, and the actual market transaction price declined. At present, the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and the enthusiasm of the downstream to get goods is not high. In addition, transportation in some regions is limited. Most yellow phosphorus enterprises offer firm prices, and now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, but only discuss them. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of Yunnan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Sichuan yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton; The mainstream quotation of Guizhou yellow phosphorus is about 37000 yuan/ton. The manufacturer’s quotation is basically unchanged.

In terms of phosphate rock, the overall phosphate rock market was stable and consolidated this week. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 20, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as that on October 15. During the special period, the logistics was limited, some mining enterprises stopped production, and the information on the site was relatively quiet. Although the downstream phosphate fertilizer market continues to be weak and the demand side is generally supported, the overall offer of phosphate rock mining enterprises is mainly stable due to the tight supply.

In terms of coke, the market price of coke will be temporarily stable from October 14 to 21, 2022, and the price of quasi primary metallurgical coke in Shanxi will be 2600 yuan/ton as of October 21, 2022, unchanged. In the future market, the business community thinks that the environmental protection and production restriction are relatively strong in the near future, the coke enterprises have limited production, and the coke supply is generally tight. However, the overall profit of the downstream has declined in the near future, the steel price has declined, and the profits of the steel plant have been damaged. Therefore, the game mentality of coke and steel is strong in the near future, and the coke price is mainly stable in the short term.

For phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid decreased this week. On October 14, the average price of phosphoric acid was 10530 yuan/ton, and on October 21, the average price was 10390 yuan/ton. The price decreased by 1.33% within the week. The phosphoric acid market is average in various regions. The price of phosphoric acid is loose, and the downstream is worried that the price will continue to decline in the future. Therefore, the market is more wait-and-see, mainly just in need. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future market forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the Chemical Branch of the Business Cooperative believes that the current yellow phosphorus market is weak, and the actual transaction price of the market has declined. On the whole, the upstream phosphate rock price is temporarily stabilized, and the downstream phosphate market price is lowered. The yellow phosphorus market is not good, and the enthusiasm for taking goods is not high. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will be weak in the short term.

The market of polybutadiene rubber continued to fall this week (10.17-10.24). According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber in China was 12240 yuan/ton, down 4.38% from 12800 yuan/ton last Monday. On October 19, the factory price of two barrels of oil of butadiene rubber was lowered by 300 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the factory price of butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was reported at 12000 yuan/ton. As of the 24th day, the price of cis-12400 yuan/ton in the cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market and 11500-11900 yuan/ton in the mainstream of private cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market were offered by businesses with weak cost demand and preferential shipping.

The pressure on the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber has eased slightly since October. In late October, the supply side of cis polybutadiene rubber was relatively tight, supporting cis polybutadiene rubber.

This week (10.17-10.24), the raw butadiene market declined slightly, and the support for the cost of cis polybutadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of butadiene was 7608 yuan/ton, down 1.95% from 7775 yuan/ton last Monday.

This week (10.17-10.24), the natural rubber market declined slightly, and the support for cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was weak. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 24, the price of natural rubber was 11720 yuan/ton, down 3.38% from 12130 yuan/ton last Monday.

The demand side is weak. The downstream tire enterprises started to decline in October, and the demand side is not supported by cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber. In order to reduce risks, merchants often follow the sales and purchase.

Future market forecast: according to the analysts of the business community, the supply pressure of the butadiene rubber production chain has eased slightly at present, but the cost has declined, and the demand is light. It is expected that the butadiene rubber market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, as of October 21, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10500.00 yuan/ton, 3.08% lower than the price on Monday, 6.80% lower than the price on September 21, and 13.46% lower than the price on a three-month cycle.

Epichlorohydrin market fell this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, some devices in Hebei, Shandong and Zhejiang at the supply end are in shutdown state, but the demand side performance is poor. The downstream procurement intention is not high, and more wait-and-see. Only small orders just need replenishment. The delivery of the goods is not smooth, and the market supply is sufficient.

In terms of upstream and downstream: raw propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market continued to decline in a narrow range this week. The average price of the Shandong market at the beginning of the week was 7436 yuan/ton, and the average price at the weekend was 7426 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 0.13%, up 0.05% from 30 days ago. The cost support of the propylene method was insufficient. The raw material glycerin is weak, but the cost pressure still exists. The reference price of downstream epoxy resin was 19100.00 on October 20, a decrease of 6.98% compared with October 1 (20533.33).

According to the epichlorohydrin analysts of the business community, the current cost support is insufficient, the downstream buying is cautious, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the shipment of the cargo holders is under pressure. It is estimated that the epichlorohydrin market may be weak in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the bulk list of business cooperatives, the price of petroleum coke of local refiners fell this week. On October 16, the average price of Shandong market was 4039.00 yuan/ton, 1.52% lower than the price of 4101.50 yuan/ton on October 10.

On October 16, the petroleum coke commodity index was 314.15, unchanged from yesterday, 23.13% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 408.70 (2022-05-11), and 369.65% higher than the lowest point of 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the refinery’s petroleum coke shipments were average, the downstream demand was limited, and the price of petroleum coke fell.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: the price of calcined coke rose slightly this week; The price of metal silicon market rose; The price of downstream electrolytic aluminum fluctuated. As of October 16, the price was 18726.67 yuan/ton; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking.

The oil coke analyst of the business agency believes that: this week, the international crude oil shocks and declines, and the cost support of oil coke is limited; Downstream carbon enterprises have a large number of goods in stock before the festival, which is still dominated by de stocking. The refinery shipments are under pressure. Downstream procurement is mainly on demand, and the downstream has a strong wait-and-see mood. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke will continue to decline in the near future.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

As can be seen from the figure above, the domestic hydrochloric acid price fell slightly this week, and the average market price fell from 166.67 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 160.00 yuan/ton at the end of this week, a 4.00% drop. A year-on-year drop of 50.31%. On October 16, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.11, unchanged from yesterday, down 69.46% from the highest point of 137.89 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 134.20% from the lowest point of 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weakened downstream procurement

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price fell slightly this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market was consolidated at a low level, and the cost support was insufficient. The price of the downstream polyaluminum chloride market fell slightly, from 2027.50 yuan/ton at the end of last year to 2017.50 yuan/ton at the end of this week, down 0.49%, 5.92% YoY compared with the same period last year; The market price of ammonium chloride was adjusted at a low level, and the price was 990.00 yuan/ton. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient and the downstream procurement enthusiasm is weakened.

Future market forecast

In the middle and late October, the market price of hydrochloric acid fell mainly in a narrow range. The recent low level of upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated, and the cost support is insufficient. The low level of downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the downstream purchase intention is general. The analysts of the business association believe that hydrochloric acid has declined slightly in recent shocks.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the sulfur price in East China rose first and then fell this week. On October 14, the average sulfur price was 1560.00 yuan/ton, up 0.65% compared with 1550.00 yuan/ton on October 8, and up 36.44% month on month.

This week, the sulfur market was put into operation. After the festival, the port arrival volume of sulfur was low, the supply of goods was tight, and the cargo holders were reluctant to sell. The market had a strong interest in price fixing. The domestic refineries had a good demand, and the enterprise shipments were smooth. The sulfur market continued to go up, and the price rose. Later, the enthusiasm of downstream market entry was weakened, and the enterprise shipments were not good. Some refineries lowered their prices slightly according to their own shipments. As of the 14th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong was about 1500-1700 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 1400-1650 yuan/ton.

Downstream market of industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market continued to rise, and the price continued to rise this week. As of October 14, the average domestic sulfuric acid price was 406 yuan/ton, up 17.34% compared with 346 yuan/ton on October 8. In some regions of China, the pressure on the supply of goods has weakened due to the maintenance of plant equipment, and the market has increased. In addition, the price of raw materials has risen, which has provided good cost support, and the price of sulfuric acid has risen along the trend.

The market of monoammonium phosphate was weak and declined sharply. On October 14, the average price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in Sichuan was 2900 yuan/ton. On October 8, the average price of 55% of powdered monoammonium phosphate in Sichuan was 3150 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate fell 7.94%. The downstream autumn fertilizer consumption is nearing the end, the demand is weak, the market support is weak, and the enterprise’s quotation is lowered according to its own shipment situation.

Future market forecast

The sulfur analysts of the business community believe that the domestic sulfur market is mainly reorganized. Although the port market is strong and the attitude of supporting the market is obvious, with the increase of port arrivals, the positive support is limited. The domestic sulfur market is wait-and-see, and the enterprise’s quotation is adjusted according to the status of the shipment clearance. It is expected that the short-term sulfur market will continue to wait and see, with specific attention to the downstream follow-up.

One week after the festival (10.10-14), the domestic polysilicon market was stable, and the price continued to the level before the festival, with a weekly increase of only 0.11%. As of October 14, the domestic supply price was stable, and the import supply increased slightly, with a range of 1000-2000 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring of the business community, at the weekend, the single-crystal compact mainstream range with the model of primary solar energy reached RMB 298-30900/ton. The supply and demand of the market are flourishing, and the supply and demand are basically balanced.

From the perspective of silicon material commencement, the operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers has significantly increased this month, and most domestic manufacturers have started work normally. Two units in the maintenance period have been recovered successively in September before, but under the influence of Xinjiang and Inner Mongolia epidemics, although the production of units has not been affected, due to the impact of transportation, delivery may be delayed, and the supply has little impact. On the whole, the post holiday supply has significantly increased compared with the previous month, and the increase in silicon material supply is the main reason for the stabilization of silicon material price.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, silicon wafers continued to be stable this month. On September 27, Dachang Longji Co., Ltd. released the executive price of silicon wafers. The price was still the same as that in August, rising or falling to zero. In October, the price of large silicon chip manufacturers was not adjusted, the silicon chip commencement was generally stable, and the demand continued to advance.

In terms of terminals, the price of battery chips rose slightly after the festival. The mainstream transaction price of single-crystal M6 battery chips was stable, about 1.29 yuan/W, but the mainstream transaction price of M10 battery chips rose slightly, about 1.33 yuan/W, and the mainstream transaction price of G12 battery chips rose to about 1.31 yuan/W. The pressure on enterprises has eased slightly. The operating rate has significantly increased. Although the market has stock before the festival, the market trading is still strong after the festival. The steady shipment of terminal components, the gradual start of domestic large-scale ground power station projects, and the overseas demand for new energy layout boosted the delivery of components.

Future market forecast: polycrystalline silicon analysts from the business community believe that the supply and demand of silicon materials are basically balanced at present, and the market has stabilized due to the increase in supply. Later, with the steady growth of newly put into production capacity, and the recent absence of maintenance plans by manufacturers, prices will still be somewhat suppressed. However, the increasing downstream demand will also support the high price of silicon materials, and the market is expected to remain dominated by narrow shocks.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 13, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate rock in mainstream areas in China was around 1054 yuan/ton. Compared with October 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1064 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 10 yuan/ton, a drop of 0.91%, and compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 46 yuan/ton, a drop of 4.16%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that the domestic phosphorus ore market is generally weak after returning from the National Day holiday. The demand of the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is generally supported. The overall cold operation of the phosphate fertilizer market has relatively affected the mentality of the phosphate rock industry. However, supported by tight supply, most mining enterprises in the field still maintain a high offer. Among them, the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore in Guizhou was stable after the festival, and some mining enterprises in Yunnan and Sichuan reduced the market price of medium and high-end grade phosphorus ore by 10-20 yuan/ton. As of October 13, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1080 yuan/ton. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is around 980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is around 1160-1260 yuan/ton. There is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors, and the details need to be negotiated.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, after the National Day holiday, the domestic yellow phosphorus market rose as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of yellow phosphorus was 37500 yuan/ton on October 12, up 3.09% compared with October 1 (36375 yuan/ton).

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

At present, the downstream phosphate fertilizer market is relatively light as a whole, giving ordinary support to the phosphate ore market. The support to maintain the stability of the phosphate ore market is mainly from the continuous tension on the supply side. The phosphate ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market is mainly weak and consolidation operation, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the information changes on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the data of the large list of business cooperatives, the bromine price fell in September as a whole and rebounded at the end of the month. The average market price at the beginning of the month was 45200 yuan/ton, while the average market price at the end of the month was 42600 yuan/ton, down 5.75% and 11.71% year on year. On September 29, the bromine commodity index was 149.47, unchanged from yesterday, down 39.04% from the highest point 245.18 (2021-10-27) in the cycle, and up 153.68% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of bromine fell in the first ten days of this month, the overall procurement of downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries was average recently, the market transaction was still light, and the production of bromine enterprises was relatively stable. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, the downstream did not rush to purchase, and the price was intentionally lowered. Bromine prices rose in late September, mainly because bromine prices stopped falling and rebounded this week. Recently, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries have been stocking up before the National Day, and the market turnover is slightly better than in the early days. The bromine enterprises intend to increase due to the supply and demand game. However, bromine enterprises were reluctant to sell.

In terms of raw materials, the price of sulfur rose overall in September. The average market price at the beginning of the month was about 1163.33 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was 1453.33 yuan/ton. The price rose by 24.93%, 26.23% lower than the same period last year. The downstream sulfuric acid market rose, the ammonium phosphate market rose steadily, the overall transaction atmosphere improved, the National Day holiday was approaching, the downstream demand increased, the active stock up, and the support for the sulfur market was strengthened. The sulfur refinery in Shandong Province shipped smoothly, the quotation was raised, and the port continued to operate on a strong basis. The cargo holders were very optimistic about the market, and the operators were optimistic about it, which gave a positive role to the sulfur market, and the short-term sulfur market was relatively strong.

According to the analysts of the business community, the bromine price has been consolidated in the near future, and bromine enterprises intend to increase it. Near the National Day holiday, the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine have been actively stocking up recently. However, the supply and demand of both sides are playing a game, and bromine enterprises are reluctant to sell. It is comprehensively expected that the short-term bromine price will be consolidated and operated, depending on the downstream market demand.

The market price of 1 # electrolytic manganese rose this week (September 23 to September 30). The spot market price in East China was 16600 yuan/ton last weekend, and 16700 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.6%.

Manganese ore: The overall performance of the manganese ore market is relatively cold this week. There are few deals in the market near the holiday, and the price changes are small in the days before the holiday. However, some goods will arrive in Hong Kong during the holiday. It is expected that the market price will have a slight correction after the holiday when the supply is sufficient. As of September 30, Tianjin Port (600717) had an Australian block of 45 yuan/ton, South Africa’s semi carbonic acid of 35 yuan/ton and Gabon’s 41.5 yuan/ton; Qinzhou Hong Kong Macao block is 46.5 yuan/ton, Gabon is 42.0 yuan/ton, and South Africa semi carbonate is 36.0 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the weekly and monthly K column chart of electrolytic manganese above that since March 2022, the price of electrolytic manganese has continued to decline. At the end of August, the price continued to stabilize after a slight rise, and at the end of September, the price recovered slightly.

The price of electrolytic manganese market started to rise slightly this week, and the enterprises had a strong attitude of price support, so the market was somewhat boosted. There is a certain demand for goods in the market near the holidays, which drives the market price to rise slightly at the end of the month. In terms of downstream demand, the market situation has been volatile recently, and procurement on demand has been maintained, and long-term cooperation has been mainly implemented, with less bulk cargo. Recently, the steel bidding situation was introduced, and the price was in a reasonable range. Most steel mills gradually resumed purchasing electrolytic manganese, which boosted the market mentality to a certain extent. However, due to the downstream demand, the market continues to be weak. It is expected that the future price will remain stable and weak, with a strong supply and demand game mentality.

Manganese and silicon: In September, the domestic silicon and manganese showed a trend of low repair and upswing. The futures market also showed a trend of bottoming out and recovery. The market activity increased, the merchants’ quotation increased, and the raw material manganese ore stopped falling and rose. In addition, some production areas were affected by public health events, and the transportation was obviously impeded, the freight also increased, and the silicon and manganese market was in a strong price fixing mood. According to the price monitoring of the business community, Ningxia (FeMN68Si18) offered 7100-7200 yuan/ton on September 29, up 2.86% from the beginning of the month.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business cooperatives, the domestic PA66 market price rose in September, and the spot price of each brand rose. As of September 30, the ex factory price of the glue injection molding sample enterprises in the business agency PA66 was about 24750 yuan/ton on average, up or down by+11.24% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid trend stopped rising in September, and the continuous rise in the price of pure benzene provided impetus for adipic acid. The low starting point in the short term also supported the price. Qixiang Tengda’s accident in the first ten days did not cause serious consequences to the adiponitrile production line. In the month, the supply of hexamethylene diamine continued to be tight, and merchants were reluctant to sell. The market is improving, and enterprises and merchants have raised their offers.

The upstream raw material market is generally stronger, and the cost end support of PA66 is concentrated on the hexamethylene diamine product. In terms of the industry’s operating rate, since the previous negative market of PA66 enterprises was undertaken this month, the domestic PA66 industry’s load was not high at the beginning of the month. In addition, due to the shortage of raw materials, the market’s operating rate will not rise quickly in the future. The market’s spot supply is shrinking, and the spot market is supported by the supply side. In terms of the port, the inventory position is acceptable, and the arrival of overseas goods is average. In terms of demand, the current terminal enterprises tend to maintain production just because they need to follow up on the delivery of goods, and their acceptance of high priced goods is general. This month is in the traditional peak demand season. Although the demand release of downstream factories is not as good as that of previous years, the merchants have a stable mentality, and the shipments continue to increase. The deals on the market are average, and the supply of low-cost goods decreases.

Future market forecast

Analysts from the business community believe that the spot price of PA66 rose in September. The raw material side market rose mainly, and the cost side support of PA66 was mainly focused on hexamethylene diamine. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the supply side is fair, and the demand side is mainly just in need of goods. It is estimated that PA66 will continue to be boosted by the cost side in the short term.