The domestic MIBK market is mainly down. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market reported 16400 yuan/ton on November 1st and 14933 yuan/ton on November 8th, a decrease of 8.94%

Recently, the MIBK market has been mainly declining, with low end prices in East China reaching 14600-14800 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking intentions are not high, and with the off-season approaching, traders have a more bearish mentality, making it difficult to stop the market decline.

The cost side is bearish, with crude oil falling more or less in November, dragging down the weak and downward trend of the downstream acetone market. There is sufficient import and domestic supply, and the market’s spot circulation has increased. In addition, at the beginning of the month, downstream large factories mainly consumed contract volume, and there was less restocking in the market. As of the 8th, the acetone market has fallen by 6.61%, with the East China region offering 6600 yuan/ton.

From a terminal perspective, the demand in other industries is mostly small orders, with the largest downstream antioxidant industry experiencing a decline in operating rates. Overall, there is less demand for raw materials, and the market is mainly bearish. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and operate under targeted contracts, resulting in a lack of positive support for the industrial chain.

Concerns about the demand outlook have intensified, with overnight crude oil continuing to decline broadly, and bearish factors in the industrial chain increasing. Moreover, domestic demand is difficult to be optimistic. After a continuous decline in the market, the business community expects that there is still a small downward space in the short-term MIBK market, but it will enter a weak adjustment state later. Focus on the support from the raw material end.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in November. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton. On November 8th, the average market price was around 2080 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.45%. On November 7th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 109.74, a decrease of 6.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 73.78% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of the market, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has declined this month. The mainstream price in the domestic market is around 1900-2400 yuan/ton, and the enterprise equipment is relatively stable with no significant fluctuations at the moment. Enterprise shipments are average and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation.

Domestic mainstream market quotation situation:

In terms of supply: The market trading atmosphere is average, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is currently around 87%. Data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is currently around 510000 tons, an increase of 13.07%. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, but the alkali plants are still in a state of accumulation. In addition, data shows that in October, with the completion of new production and centralized maintenance, the monthly production of soda ash exceeded 3 million tons, setting a new monthly high in recent years. This shows that the production of soda ash is still at a high level.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of glass is declining. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter. On November 8th, the average price was 22.68 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.78%. The performance of glass is average. Although the raw material inventory of downstream glass factories is not high, the market sentiment is relatively cautious due to the expectation of upstream inventory accumulation, and there has been no large-scale replenishment behavior. Instead, procurement is mainly based on demand.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash is weak and operating. Individual enterprises undergo maintenance, but the overall supply fluctuation is not significant. The overall trading atmosphere is average, and the downstream of soda ash is replenished according to demand. Market participants have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation of soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of November 3rd, the average price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 63600 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate showed a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.93% compared to the same period last week. In October, the overall trend of lithium iron phosphate was weak and decreased by 10.17%, with a price drop of 7200 yuan/ton. Since November, it has still maintained a weak trend.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. The price for the same period last week was 63600 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream price is around 63000 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and weak, with downstream restocking on demand and weak demand. Upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak, and the cost support for lithium iron phosphate is not strong. There is still overcapacity, and the overall market is operating under pressure.

In terms of supply and demand: It is predicted that there will be a surplus of global lithium iron phosphate production capacity in 2025, approximately exceeding 3 million per ton. However, the lithium battery industry is still hot, and there are still multiple enterprises building new production lines and production lines.

Cost side: Upstream lithium carbonate is weak and declining, with insufficient cost support for lithium iron phosphate. In October, the price of lithium carbonate continued to be low, but after the National Day holiday, the trend was flat and prices continued to decline. In November, lithium carbonate remained weak and moved forward under pressure, with lithium iron phosphate passively following the decline.

In the first half of 2023, the cumulative production of power batteries in China is about 194GWh, while the installed capacity is only 103.9GWh, which is relatively surplus. It is speculated that the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China will reach 5.75 million tons in 2025, with a demand of about 2.67 million tons and a production capacity of over 3 million tons. Based on the current situation, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is oversupplied, and the positive electrode market will maintain this surplus trend in the short term.

Analysts from Business Society’s Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that lithium iron phosphate will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Under the dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand support, lithium iron phosphate will move forward under pressure. The downturn in power batteries is obvious, and the recovery of industry demand is slow and less than expected. Upstream raw materials continue to decline, and there is a lack of support on the cost side. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among enterprises, and bearish sentiment still exists,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 3rd, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6895 yuan/ton to 6882 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 3.23%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. There is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises across regions. However, downstream procurement is mainly in demand, inventory accumulation is severe, and the ethanol market is weak and organized, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market.

In terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, the market volume of corn in production areas has gradually increased, and the domestic corn market has seamlessly connected new and old markets. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and manufacturers have gradually lowered the purchase price of corn after completing the acquisition task. The overall domestic corn market has entered a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the overall price of corn market has come under pressure and fully declined. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 33.51% operating in East China and 87.28% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 13.40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Shuntong Short Stop is about to resume. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in November. Other chemical products require procurement. The demand for Baijiu is average. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish and the supply and demand are weak. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fell in October. On the first day, the market reported around 13710 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, it reported around 13540 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.24%. This month, the market for raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has decreased. However, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market has ample spot supply. Downstream demand has not increased, and the current mainstream market for polyacrylamide is still weak and organized.

Raw material acrylonitrile: In October, the acrylonitrile market experienced a high level in the early stage and a slight decline in the later stage. As of October 30th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the 9825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls, while the cost support for acrylonitrile weakens; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, has experienced a significant decline in production, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In October, the start of acrylonitrile production slightly decreased. In the early stage of October, acrylonitrile prices were strong due to low inventory and cost support, but in the later stage, prices slightly decreased at the end of the month as demand weakened.

Raw material acrylic acid: The acrylic acid market steadily declined in October. After the Double Festival, the market price of raw material propylene has decreased, cost support has weakened, industry capacity utilization has increased, and supply of goods is sufficient. However, downstream demand is poor, and the inquiry and procurement atmosphere is not high. Holders are offering discounts to ship, and the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has weakened. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market has been boosted by news, resulting in increased cost pressure. The supply side’s operating load has decreased compared to the previous period, and the demand side support is weak. Holders’ shipments are under pressure, and the acrylic acid market has been sorted out through game theory. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene price has weakened, and cost support has once again shown weakness. Some units have shut down, but the demand side follow-up is still insufficient. Downstream procurement is mostly in demand, and acrylic acid prices have fallen.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the civilian liquefied gas market in Shandong experienced a surge in October. The price of raw gas has skyrocketed, supported by costs and the strong price of Shanghai gas. As the northern heating season approaches, there is strong bullish sentiment towards liquefied natural gas, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of liquefied natural gas will be higher than that of other countries.

Future forecast: In October, the overall focus of raw material cost prices will shift downwards, while the overall fuel market will rise. The cost of polyacrylamide will fluctuate. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The actual transaction changes have not yet been significantly followed up. It is expected to continue to focus on consolidation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in October 2023, the domestic lead ingot market was weak and volatile, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.91%.

On October 30th, the lead commodity index was 99.48, an increase of 0.22 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.30% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile, with a significant increase starting from July. Judging from the weekly trend, there are more losses and less gains.

In October 2023, the lead ingot market continued to decline in the first half of the month, while the trend in the second half was volatile. The futures market performed poorly after the holiday, with lead inventory rising to over 90000 tons, reaching a new high since June 2021. The spot market supply increased after the holiday, and the market mentality was weak. Under high inventory pressure, the lead ingot market was under pressure and downward trend. After entering the second half of the month, the market saw a slight rebound driven by the positive macro outlook, but was once again under pressure and downward.

From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in the main production areas have maintenance plans after the holiday, while most of the enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance have recently resumed normal production. The overall operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased compared to last month, and it is expected that the production will slightly increase within the month, indicating sufficient market supply. In terms of demand, as the weather turns colder, the traditional seasonal peak season in China has basically come to an end. However, this year’s overall peak season performance is average, and the overall performance is not strong during the peak season. Due to poor sales performance during the peak season, the inventory of battery companies in the factory is still high, and companies are mainly actively destocking. Overall, the lead ingot market is gradually entering the off-season, and there may be room for a downward trend in lead prices under high inventory pressure.

Related data:

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.85 million and 2.858 million units, respectively, with an average increase of 10.7% month on month and 6.6% and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively. Both production and sales reached historical highs during the same period. From January to September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached a total of 21.075 million and 21.069 million units, with year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in September 2023 reached 687000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to September 2023, China’s lead production reached 5.761 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in August 2023, global refined lead production was 1.1787 million tons, consumption was 1.1849 million tons, and supply shortage was 6100 tons. From January to August 2023, the global refined lead production was 9.7148 million tons, with a consumption of 9.7386 million tons and a supply shortage of 23800 tons. In August 2023, the global lead ore production was 354400 tons. From January to August 2023, the global lead ore production was 3.2548 million tons

In October, the dichloromethane market initially fluctuated and consolidated, followed by a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.79% from 2990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and it surged to 3030 yuan/ton within the month. In the early stage, stimulated by the parking and maintenance of a certain factory, prices significantly increased. In the later stage, on the one hand, the support for raw materials weakened, and on the other hand, the supply and demand pressure further increased, leading to a significant decline in the market for dichloromethane.

In October, the overall start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and as of late October, the start of methane chloride production in China was around 7.2%.

Weak cost support for dichloromethane in October

In October, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine slightly decreased, and the cost support for dichloromethane weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from 2478 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; At the end of October, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The cost support for dichloromethane was weak in the early stage.

Merchants have a low willingness to stock up and mostly purchase according to demand. Downstream terminals only require immediate support, and some methane chloride enterprises have slightly increased their inventory. The supply and demand side is relatively weak compared to the previous period.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business Society, the high price of dichloromethane raw materials has slightly declined, with weak cost support and a backlog of supply side enterprises that just need to support the demand side. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride in October declined. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8012.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.03% compared to the initial price of 8712.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.67%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. In October, downstream procurement was not active, and some phthalic anhydride factories continuously lowered their factory prices, causing a significant decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: Significant decline in ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

In October, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene continued to decline. As of the end of the month, the ortho benzene price was 8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.87% compared to the beginning of the month price of 8200 yuan/ton. The ortho benzene supply was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. In October, the crude oil price trend declined, and the mixed xylene price correspondingly decreased, resulting in a decrease in raw material prices. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price trend significantly declined, and the decline in ortho benzene market brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

In October, the downstream DOP market price slightly decreased, with a price of 11333.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 2.16% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP has dropped to 11200-11400 yuan/ton. The plasticizer market is not good, which is unfavorable for the phthalic anhydride market, The market price of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price range has fluctuated recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has declined. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 11800 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.13%.

The quotation of domestic activated carbon manufacturers has slightly increased, with the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Market transactions have rebounded, with orders being the main source of goods. There is an urgent need for positive news to boost the market, with a focus on downstream market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: There are insufficient positive factors for activated carbon and insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market trend of 1 # tin ingot in East China this week (10.13-10.20) was fluctuating. On October 13th, the average market price was 213810 yuan/ton, and on October 20th, the average market price was 217660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.8%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the tin ingot market has been narrow and volatile.

In terms of the futures market, the main trend in this cycle was the rise and then fall of Shanghai Tin, which was volatile. On Friday, the stock market had low sentiment and weak risk sentiment, with non-ferrous metals generally under pressure and declining, while Shanghai Tin followed suit. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is still a tight supply at the mining end, and the recent changes in smelter production have been limited, with little change in supply compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the downstream market concentrated on buying and restocking before the holiday in September. Recently, it is still digesting inventory, and the intention to restock is low. Recently, the spot market has slightly increased with the tin market, once again suppressing downstream purchasing intentions. However, from the perspective of downstream terminal consumption, there has not been a significant improvement, and market expectations for the future are weak. With the increase in domestic import sources, domestic tin ingot inventory continues to accumulate, which is negative for the market. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated and declined. In the future, it is expected that the tin market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

On October 22, the base metal index stood at 1194 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 85.98% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 42nd week of 2023 (10.16-10.20) commodity price rise and fall list, with cobalt (4.25%), gold (2.21%), and lead (1.11%) among the top 3 commodities that rose. There are a total of 11 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.80%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-1.53%), and zinc (-1.49%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.07%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on October 16th this week was 2200 yuan/ton, and on October 20th it was 2150 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.27%.

On October 16th, the center of gravity of concentrated nitric acid quotation continued to shift downwards, and the factory’s shipment pressure was obvious. The acid factory’s equipment was operating normally, and the market supply was stable. There was an urgent need to boost prices and demand was not good.

During the period of 10.16-10.20, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 6.54%, the downstream aniline price increased by 2.22%, the TDI price decreased by 0.53%, and the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.46%. At present, the main downstream aniline factories are experiencing weak acid recovery, and the demand for pesticides, pickling and other industries is not good. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may be mainly fluctuating and weak.

Price trend

In the first half of October, the domestic POM market fluctuated and fell, with many spot prices dropping. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 15th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong region has been organizing and operating recently. In the past two months, the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range after the holiday. The price of raw material methanol has shown a slight downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream procurement remains in demand, while the formaldehyde market has light trading volume, providing general support for POM.

On the supply side:

In the first half of October, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, and the overall operating rate increased. At the end of last month, the industry load was about 69%, and after half a month of climb, the overall operating rate is currently approaching 80% and entering a high level. In terms of source of goods, most enterprises’ warehouses undertake low levels in the early stage, and their inventory positions are still acceptable. However, due to the impact of early profit market competition, it has dragged down the profit space of merchants and aggregation factories. The supply side has loosened its support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In the early stage, the construction level of domestic POM downstream enterprises was not high, but there was still a shortage of goods to stimulate. But after the holiday, the company returned to work slowly and mainly digested the pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. In addition, many business owners have bearish sentiment, making follow-up operations more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of October, the POM market fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased, the supply of goods on site has increased, and suppliers have loosened their support for spot goods. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level and digest inventory. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, in the first half of October, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits, and in the short term, there are expectations of supply easing in the industry. Therefore, it is expected that the POM market may continue to experience a weak downward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.93%, and the weekend price increased by 43.09% year-on-year. On October 15th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.52, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 51.13% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7200.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7038.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.64% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, and the weekend price has increased by 2.97% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late October may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1130 yuan/ton on October 7th, and 1126 yuan/ton on October 13th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has slightly decreased this week. The international market has fallen, while the domestic urea price has fallen, which has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. Downstream and dealers are mainly wait-and-see, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods has weakened. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced operating rates and reduced demand for ammonium sulfate procurement. As of October 13th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1070 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1130-1170 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the recent slight adjustment in the price of ammonium sulfate has resulted in low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream and distributors. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell first and then rose in September. The price of isooctanol first decreased from 12960.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11640.00 yuan/ton on September 25th, a decrease of 10.19%. Later, it rose to 12020.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.26%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 35.56% year-on-year. Overall, octanol prices fluctuated and fell by 7.25% in September.

On September 27th, the isooctanol commodity index was 86.03, an increase of 0.44 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 37.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 144.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market prices of isooctanol in Shandong have significantly decreased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

In September, the factory price of propylene fluctuated and increased, rising from 7113.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7285.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 4.27% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with increased cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side: DOP market falls first and then rises

In September, the DOP market price first fell and then rose. The price of DOP first decreased from 12009.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11350.00 yuan/ton on September 20th, a decrease of 549%, and then rose to 11583.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.06%. The price at the end of the month increased by 16.07% year-on-year. Overall, the DOP market fell by 3.55% in September. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early October, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has an upward trend at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly increased in September. The average price of mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China increased from 12975.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13200.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.73%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 25.00% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in September, with the price rising from 7220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8579.80 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 18.83%. The price at the end of the month increased by 1.66% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the spandex market price slightly increased in September. The price of spandex increased from 34000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 34250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.74%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.14% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early October, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has been fluctuating. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8787.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from the beginning of the week’s price of 8775 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.68%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 22nd, the price of ortho benzene was 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the price trend of ortho benzene in China. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market price has slightly increased.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price trend has declined. As of the weekend, the price was 11459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared to the price of 11566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers have started operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP is between 11400 and 11500 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride is fluctuating.

In the future, the price trend of ortho xylene is expected to rise in the short term, while the downstream plasticizer market has not changed much. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the short term, supported by strong raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda continued to decline in the first half of 2023, and has rebounded since September 11th. On September 11th, the average market price in Shandong was 819 yuan/ton. On September 21st, the average market price in Shandong was 996 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 21.61% in 20 days.

On the supply side

From a supply perspective, from July to August, domestic caustic soda enterprises have a large number of equipment maintenance plans, and the supply is relatively insufficient, resulting in a shortage of spot goods. In addition, the operating rate has decreased, with data showing that the operating rate of caustic soda is around 83%. The inventory of liquid alkali production enterprises has been declining for 7 consecutive weeks, with the latest inventory of 271200 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons compared to the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.92%.

 
In terms of demand

From the perspective of downstream demand structure, China’s caustic soda consumption is mainly based on aluminum oxide, with the demand of the aluminum oxide industry accounting for about 31% of downstream consumption, followed by chemical industry, water treatment and medicine, papermaking, textile printing and dyeing, etc. In the first half of the year, the demand for alumina was average, but the demand for caustic soda was limited. Recently, downstream demand has increased, leading to an increase in demand for caustic soda. Recently, the spot price of alumina has increased, with an average gross profit of about 200 yuan/ton, which is the highest point in the past year. The largest downstream alumina production capacity of caustic soda is released, and the demand for chemical industry is relatively strong during the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” peak season, resulting in a significant increase in demand for caustic soda.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and may continue to rise in the short term. With the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” policy, there is still a demand for stocking downstream. In addition, it is expected that there will be an additional 300000 to 400000 tons of production capacity in 2023, with an annual increase of around 2 to 2.1 million tons (see figure above). It is expected that there is still room for the spot price of caustic soda to rise after October, but the upward space is limited. With the increase of new production capacity, there may be pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the spot price will be lowered to a certain extent from November to December, depending on downstream market demand.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 13050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.96%. The weekend price decreased by 17.91% year-on-year.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 11642.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11571.43 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.75% over the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has significantly increased this week, with the price rising from 7799.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8499.80 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 8.97%. The weekend price has decreased by 1.39% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market situation of tetrahydrofuran, the spandex market price has stabilized at a high level this week. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.24% over the weekend. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is good. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week’s lead market (9.11-9.18) showed a “V” shaped trend, rising first and then falling. The average price in the domestic market was 16620 yuan/ton over the weekend and 16770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.9%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks.

This week, the high volatility trend of Shanghai lead was the main trend, and macro data from the United States has performed well recently. The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has declined, which is good for the metal market. On the supply and demand side, the recent operation of refineries has been relatively stable, with little change in both primary and secondary lead. The overall operating rate has slightly increased. In terms of demand, the performance of downstream batteries remains sluggish during the peak season, and the overall improvement of the consumer end is limited, but there is still immediate demand. Overall, the current market sentiment is good and the futures market has performed positively, supporting the high consolidation trend of lead prices. It is expected that in the short term, the gold nine silver ten expectations will still exist, and the overall high consolidation trend of lead prices will be the main trend.

On September 17th, the base metal index stood at 1238 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 92.83% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 37th week of 2023 (September 11th to September 15th), with the top three commodities in terms of increase being metal silicon (3.89%), silver (2.72%), and zinc (2.39%). There are a total of four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.47%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.41%), and cobalt (-0.39%) being the top three products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.59%.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 15, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14760 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10 (organic silicon DMC reference 13340 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1420 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.64%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.10-9.15), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a broad upward trend. Entering September, organic silicon DMC has finally ushered in the “Golden Nine Effect”. Downstream demand is expected to rebound overall, and the market is generally positive. In addition, the high cost side market provides increased cost support for organic silicon DMC. This week, Shandong large factories actively raised the price of organic silicon DMC, with an adjustment of over 1000 yuan per ton. Other factories and suppliers are also actively increasing under the drive of large factories, with some factories mainly closing orders for early delivery, Part of the orders have been arranged until mid October, and the on-site spot supply is tight. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is good, and the confidence of operators has increased. As of September 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14700-15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild. After the market rapidly rises to high prices, some downstream companies are actively restocking for fear that the market will continue to chase high, while others are still worried and cautious in order replenishment. However, as the Double Festival approaches, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC will continue to stabilize and continue to recover. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market prices will be more likely to recover

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 244000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% compared to last Friday (September 8th) and a decrease of 49.34% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been operating weakly. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has fallen, and the lithium carbonate market is operating weakly, with poor cost support. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, and inquiry procurement continues to be in high demand. There is a strong cautious wait-and-see atmosphere, and enterprises still focus on long-term orders, with limited individual transactions. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the industrial grade lithium carbonate market has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on September 13th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 192600.00, a decrease of 8.29% compared to September 1st (210000.00), which lacks support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society, the current weak cost support combined with weak demand has led to insufficient market atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be in a weak state and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic phenol market has shown a broad upward trend, with tight supply, cost support, and high average prices. Factories are actively raising prices. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national market price was 9275 yuan/ton on September 11th, a daily increase of 11.32%

Average Price Trend of Phenol Market in Major Regions of China

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on September 11th is as follows:

Region/. Quotation./Day Up/Down

East China region/ 9250/250

Shandong region/ 9280./330

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 9250/330

South China region/ 9450./400

The factory has raised the listing price in a centralized manner. Among them, Sinopec’s East China phenol quotation has been increased by 400 yuan/ton, implementing a price of 9200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s North China phenol quotation has been increased by 400 yuan/ton, implementing a price of 9200 yuan/ton. After multiple increases in factory prices, there was little spot pressure on the market, and traders were reluctant to sell and offer higher prices.

The cost support is strong, and the raw material market is rising. Pure benzene is negotiated at 8500-8650 yuan/ton, and downstream styrene profits have been restored, leading to an increase in factory procurement in the market. With the rapid rise of pure benzene to a high level in recent times, cost support has increased, and factory cost has increased. Actively raising prices is in line with market prices. Be cautious in chasing up high prices at the terminal, prioritize hard demand, and have limited trading volume.

From the perspective of the business community, the raw materials sector remained strong in September. Although domestic units Wanhua Chemical and Changchun Chemical have maintenance plans, downstream configuration units are also undergoing maintenance, which has little impact on market supply. Downstream phenolic resin is expected to weaken during the high temperature off-season, and demand may improve. It is expected that the market will remain strong in September and operate at a high level in the short term, with discussions ranging from 9250 to 9350 yuan/ton.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the market for trichloromethane has significantly increased. According to data from Business Society, as of September 11th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2450 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.13% from 2245 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine drops slightly, and the cost support for trichloromethane weakens slightly; The overall inventory of chloroform enterprises is low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight, leading to a significant increase in factory prices; Downstream construction requires support at a low level.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the domestic methane chloride production has been basically normal, with an overall production rate of around 7.6%.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the high price of raw material methanol has stabilized, the price of liquid chlorine has decreased, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% from 2551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of September 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has decreased overall from 500 yuan/ton at the end of August, at 300 yuan/ton.

The overall operating low and stable price of refrigerant R22 has slightly increased, with the main demand for support for trichloromethane. However, in 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for trichloromethane demand will weaken in the medium to long term.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that supply and demand are still supported, and the cost side is still relatively high. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On September 7th, the rubber and plastic index reached 700 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 33.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 32.58% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96%. The price has decreased by 2.15% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene fell first and then rose in August. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly increasing since July, and the increase in August was greater than the decrease. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, and the decline in styrene market. The reason for the increase is the rise in international oil prices, good cost support, low styrene inventory, and a rising market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene increased in August. The price of pure benzene in East China has increased in negotiations, and the industry expects that there will still be a shortage of imported goods arriving on ships in September. In addition, there will be a demand for National Day restocking in the downstream by the end of September, which will drive up spot prices in the far month. East China traders took profits, increased market circulation, and buying retreated. Shandong Refinery’s inventory is low, and the offer continues to rise.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in August. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9166 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9466 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 3.27% and a decrease of 10.55% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, it is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may mainly experience a volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in August. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9700.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.52%. In August, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range upward trend.

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in August. In August, the upstream three materials of ABS were consolidated steadily with strong support for the cost side of ABS. The start of petrochemical plants saw a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and market inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a stalemate.

At present, the inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States has significantly decreased, international oil prices continue to rise, cost support is strong, and at the end of the month, the market is seeking bargains to replenish the increment. The mentality of styrene industry is good, and it is expected that the short-term volatility and rise of the styrene market will be the main trend.

On Thursday night trading, butadiene rubber 2401 opened at 12250 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in intraday trading. It closed at 13295 yuan/ton on the limit up board, with an increase of 9.47%. The closing price has increased by 23.67% compared to the opening price of 10750 yuan/ton on the first day of listing on July 28th.

Since the listing of butadiene rubber futures one month ago, the spot market of butadiene rubber has also shown a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.53% from 10830 yuan/ton on July 28. In August, the factory price of two barrels of oil butadiene rubber was gradually increased by 900 yuan/ton. As of August 31, the factory price of Daqing butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of domestic butadiene rubber was between 11700 and 12200 yuan/ton.

Industry Start Slightly Lowers Supply Side Pressure Relieves

Supply side: The overall construction of butadiene rubber in August slightly decreased.

Significant increase in raw material prices and cost support for the market of butadiene rubber

Since the end of July, the butadiene market has been rising, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 7626 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.90% from 7201 yuan/ton on July 28. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, bringing a certain boost to the cost side. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for the market demand side. Merchants’ expectations for demand were stronger, combined with the strong offer for distant cargo in the outer market, resulting in a high market atmosphere; At the end of the month, the prices of butadiene in various sales companies of Sinopec, the main production enterprise, were increased to 7600 yuan/ton. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.

The increasing speed of natural rubber destocking provides support for rubber prices

Since the end of July, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating, but the speed of inventory removal at the end of the month has accelerated, providing some support for natural rubber and butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the price was at 12090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 11960 yuan/ton on July 28th, and the low point during the cycle was at 11764 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the speed of natural rubber inventory destocking has increased rapidly. As of August 25, 2023, it is understood that the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 824400 tons, a decrease of 100000 tons from 926000 tons on July 23 and a decrease of 70000 tons from 895100 tons on August 20.

Tire production slightly increased compared to July, requiring support for rubber storage capacity

Demand side: The tire operating rate in August slightly increased compared to July, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Recently, rubber prices have continued to rise, especially with a significant increase in rubber prices on August 31st. This is mainly due to the support of industry chain fundamentals such as rapid inventory decline and high cost levels; On the other hand, it is stimulated by rumors of large capital hoarding and the continuous rise of Japanese glue. Driven by multiple factors, rubber prices have surged significantly.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of butadiene rubber raw materials is running high, and there is not much supply pressure. Coupled with the support of natural rubber destocking, it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will remain strong in the short term. If the market rubber inventory continues to rapidly decline, the spot price of butadiene rubber will continue to rise.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly increased in August. The average price of mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China increased from 12110.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.14%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 12.48% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of 1,4-butanediol slightly increased in August, with the market price rising from 11042.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11657.14 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.56%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 14.29% year-on-year. The market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in August, with the price rising from 6480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7220 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.42%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 6.96% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the market price of spandex slightly increased in August. The price of spandex has increased from 33500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 33625.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.37%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 2.83% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream market for maleic anhydride and 1,4-butanediol has significantly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

The domestic propane market saw a significant increase in August. According to data monitoring by Business Society, the average market price of propane in Shandong Province was 4718 yuan/ton on August 1st, and 5343 yuan/ton on August 30th. The monthly increase was 13.25%, a decrease of 10.2% compared to the same period last year.

As of August 30th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ August 30th

East China region/ 5400-5550 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5350-5500 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5300-5400 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5300-5400 yuan/ton

In the first half of August, the domestic propane market showed a significant increase, while in the second half, the increase was slightly reversed. At the beginning of the month, the CP price increase was introduced in August, boosting market confidence. In addition, with low inventory in the region, refineries actively pushed up prices, and prices continued to rise until mid month. As of August 15th, the average domestic propane price had risen to 5550 yuan/ton, an increase of 17.64% compared to the beginning of the month. Subsequently, the market entered a stage of correction and consolidation, and downstream consumers began to resist high priced sources of goods, especially the tightening of PD device profits, which affected the start of production. To stimulate sales, the focus of propane trading fluctuated and shifted downwards.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in August 2023, with propane at $470 per ton, an increase of $70 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $460 per ton, an increase of $85 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current propane market prices remain high, and downstream replenishment enthusiasm is not high, leading to an increase in inventory. It is expected that the propane market will continue to decline slightly in the short term.

Domestic price trend:

From the trend chart of p-xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of p-xylene increased in August. As of the end of the month, the domestic factory price of p-xylene was 9100 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.41% compared to the initial price of 8800 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 1.11%.

In August, the supply of paraxylene was relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 70%. However, during the maintenance of some paraxylene units, there was little change in spot supply. In August, the international crude oil price fluctuated at a high level, and PX external market prices remained at a high level. As of the 27th, the closing prices in Asia were 1042-1044 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1067-1069 dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has been mainly fluctuating. Overall, the operating rate of xylene devices in the Asian region is over 60%. The supply of PX goods in the Asian region has not changed much, and the domestic xylene market price trend has slightly increased.

The international crude oil prices in August were mainly volatile. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $80.10 per barrel, while the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $84.42 per barrel. The crude oil prices in August slightly decreased by 2.0%. On the one hand, concerns about the prospects for global economic growth have put pressure on crude oil. On the other hand, the weak economic data in China has dragged down the oil market, coupled with the instability of the European and American banking industry, a decrease in risk appetite, and pressure on the oil market. However, crude oil production has decreased, and Russian oil exports did not meet the quarterly plan in July, which was lower than expected at 370000 barrels per day. Saudi Arabia may postpone its voluntary reduction of 1 million barrels per day until September; In addition, supply disruptions in Kazakhstan and Nigeria support oil prices. The news is mixed, with crude oil prices mainly fluctuating, and the domestic xylene market is limited in terms of growth.

In August, the domestic PTA spot market trend slightly increased, with an average price of 6082 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the end of the month, an increase of 0.75% compared to the price of 6036 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. From the recent changes in PTA’s own equipment, restart and maintenance coexist, and the overall load has increased. Currently, the industry’s operating rate is around 80%, and Hengli Petrochemical’s Huizhou 2.5 million ton new project is gradually mass produced, with a boost in supply. The downstream terminal polyester maintains a high level of over 90% overall and starts construction. As raw materials rise, the cash flow pressure of polyester factories increases, and inventory pressure has increased, with short fiber inventory at a high level. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines at the terminal has slightly declined to below 63%, and the operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines has continued to decline. The pressure on polyester inventory and cash flow has increased, and the polyester load has decreased. Affected by the poor terminal market situation, the price increase in the domestic xylene market is limited.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that the current supply side and demand side of the crude oil market will continue to play against each other. The downstream PTA market has slightly increased, and there has been no significant improvement in demand in the textile industry. Market expectations for demand are not optimistic, and crude oil support is strong. Overall, it is expected that the price trend in the xylene market will remain stable in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market increased in August. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 3980 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.80% compared to the initial price of 3560 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 3.40%.

In August, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market increased significantly, and the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable. Recently, the supply of goods on site was normal. In Hebei, due to the reduction of rainy weather, the situation of on-site sales improved, and ammonium nitrate manufacturers increased their factory prices. Downstream demand was normal, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate increased. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has improved, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, while procurement in the domestic downstream civil explosive industry has been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have started operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has mainly increased. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are between 5000 to 5100 yuan/ton, Shandong region is between 3800 to 4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is between 3800 to 3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in August, with an average price of 2016.67 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 3.95% compared to the price of 1940 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2000 to 2100 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 1900 to 2000 yuan/ton. The market supply is normal, and recent sales have been good, while downstream demand has correspondingly increased. On the market transactions have improved, and the price of raw material nitric acid has increased, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of the ammonium nitrate market has increased.

In August, the domestic liquid ammonia market price slightly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 3600 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.89% compared to the initial price of 3533.33 yuan/ton. The increase in liquid ammonia is mainly due to the tight supply performance of the main production areas in the north, which has a positive support for the market. Some devices in the northern region are still undergoing maintenance, and sudden production restrictions in regions such as Shanxi have led to a short-term decline in enterprise operating rates and tight supply. Production enterprises generally experience vehicle queues and other goods, with favorable factors supporting the rise in liquid ammonia prices. The rise in upstream liquid ammonia prices has positive support for the ammonium nitrate market, and the price of ammonium nitrate is supported to rise.

Recently, downstream on-demand procurement has been the main focus, with little change in demand. However, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia has increased, and the price of nitric acid has mainly increased. The positive support is relatively strong. Ammonium nitrate analysts from Business Society believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may slightly increase in the future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On August 21, the price of pure benzene was 7855 yuan/ton, and on Friday (August 25), the price of pure benzene was 7850 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from last week and 2.61% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was at 7850 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 100 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Yesterday’s night trading negotiation was around 7920 yuan/ton, and it is expected that the high level of pure benzene in East China will fluctuate in the morning.

Some institutions believe that OPEC+may need to further reduce production, and there is still uncertainty about the outlook for local demand, leading to a slight increase in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 10 rose by $0.16 per barrel or 0.20% to $79.05 per barrel; ICE oil futures contract 10 rose by $0.15 per barrel, or 0.18%, at $83.36 per barrel. The main contract for China INE crude oil futures, 2310, fell 12.1 yuan to 625.1 yuan/barrel, and rose 1.6 yuan to 626.7 yuan/barrel in the evening trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the pure benzene market in East China experienced a volatile decline, with downstream customers seeking bargains to stock up, and spot resources trading was weak. Market participants were mainly on the sidelines. The quotation from Shandong Refinery continued to decline, and the daily transaction volume was slightly higher than the demand, with a decrease in transaction volume.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, the domestic carbon black market has remained stable and slightly declined during the cycle. On August 21, the domestic carbon black N220 quotation was 10166 yuan/ton, mainly due to the continued decline in raw material coal tar prices in some regions, which has provided cost support for carbon black enterprises.

Cost side: In terms of raw materials, as of August 21, the market price of coal tar was 4760 yuan/ton, and the price of coal tar has decreased during the cycle. Downstream products continue to decline, and downstream factories are facing increased losses. The overall buying atmosphere for raw coal tar downstream factories remains sluggish. Under the continuous fermentation of bearish factors, it is expected that the coal tar market price will continue to decline in the short term.

Supply and demand side: Most carbon black enterprises maintain normal operating levels, and the overall operation of the domestic carbon black market is stable, with sufficient supply in the carbon black market.

In terms of terminals, downstream enterprises have a decent level of operation, but they have a strong resistance to high priced carbon black sources, and their purchasing enthusiasm is average. They often maintain a low price state for inquiries, and there is currently no significant benefit on the demand side. Recently, the price policy has remained unchanged, and the activity of factory procurement has decreased compared to the previous period. Terminal demand is in a weak and difficult to improve stage.

Overall, under the strong bearish atmosphere in the market, incoming inquiries have maintained a suppressed attitude, and demand is sluggish and difficult to improve. The bearish news on the market is widespread, and it is expected that the short-term carbon black market will operate weakly.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has been fluctuating, with spot prices fluctuating. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of August 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.18% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of supply: The ABS industry has recently experienced a high load, with a total operating rate of over 93%, which has increased compared to the previous period. The on-site supply of goods is abundant. Inventory continues to rise, overall at over 170000 tons. Supply side support for spot market weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials has been average recently. The raw material acrylonitrile market continued to decline slightly. Although supported by higher upstream propylene and increased terminal operating rates, the efforts are limited. The increase in the operation of acrylonitrile units has significantly affected the compression of acrylonitrile, leading to a decrease in prices.

Last week, the price of butadiene remained stagnant. The high crude oil prices loosened during the week, weakening support for sellers’ mentality. In addition, due to the increase in spot prices in the early stage, the acceptance of high priced goods by terminals has decreased. In the second half of the week, trading has been cold, and the market is under pressure. The domestic butadiene market may enter a consolidation market.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the recent decline in styrene market prices has led to a pullback. Recently, downstream demand has continued to be weak in the early stage, and the cost of pure benzene remains strong. However, the loosening of crude oil prices weakens the confidence of operators, and it is expected that the short-term styrene spot market may weaken due to the long short tug of war.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have average enthusiasm for stocking. In addition, the downstream operating rate is still at a low level due to factors such as season and power restrictions. After the price increase of ABS, the acceptance level of manufacturers decreased, and the procurement operation was cautious, resulting in poor overall demand.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the upstream three materials of ABS have fluctuated, weakening support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory continues to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may continue to narrow range consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, from August 11 to August 18, 2023, the auction price of crude benzene fluctuated and decreased, with 7268.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week and 6968.75 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a weekly decrease of 4.13%.

In terms of crude oil: Since the beginning of this week, crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days, with a slight increase on Thursday. As of the 17th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was at $80.39 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was at $84.12 per barrel. Crude oil has been declining for three consecutive trading days. Recently, due to weak economic data in China, coupled with unstable banking in Europe and America, concerns about the global economic growth prospects have put pressure on crude oil, The crude oil price closed continuously lower. However, the decrease in crude oil supply from OPEC and Russia, as well as the improvement in energy demand, have played a supportive role in oil prices. In addition to the optimistic expectation of China’s oil demand growth, which continues to boost oil prices, during the summer demand peak season in the northern hemisphere, there are still positive factors for international oil prices. Thursday’s closing price rose, and overall, international oil prices are still at a high level.

The factory price of Sinopec pure benzene has increased by a total of 150 yuan/ton during this cycle, with a current implementation of 7750 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7833 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7750 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen a positive trend in recent times. After ten consecutive weeks of decline, it has risen for six consecutive weeks, and the price has slightly declined this week.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the overall performance of the pure benzene market this week was weak, and the macro market news at the beginning of the week was generally weak. The crude oil market fell for three consecutive days, and the external market of pure benzene fell, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market, with prices slightly declining. The overall performance of the downstream is also weak, with some styrene and other devices being shut down for maintenance. The market’s expectation of future demand is weak, dragging down the mentality of the pure benzene market. The overall weak trend of the industrial chain runs, and by Friday, with the strength of styrene, the pure benzene market has slightly rebounded, and market prices have slightly rebounded.

This week, the overall operation of the pure benzene industry chain was weak, and the hydrogenation benzene market followed the decline. Under the influence of upstream factors, the overall auction price of crude benzene this week decreased, with Shanxi region executing 6800-6900 yuan/ton and Shandong region executing 6950 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200-300 yuan/ton compared to last week. In terms of supply, coking enterprises have been boosted by the downward trend in raw material coking coal prices this week. Currently, the cost of entering the furnace has decreased, corporate profits have recovered, and the comprehensive operating rate has significantly increased. The supply of crude benzene during the week was relatively loose compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the start of construction has slightly declined this week, and the overall demand is still good. However, there is a strong mentality towards holding down the price of raw material crude benzene, and the enthusiasm to participate in the auction has significantly decreased this week. In the future market, the price of pure benzene is currently fluctuating at a high level, and the overall industry chain still has support. However, the downstream price pressure mentality is strong, and the enthusiasm for receiving goods is declining. Without demand support, it is expected that there may be some downward space in the crude benzene market next week.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of August 14th, the price of PET water bottles has been stable, with an average price of 7320.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.54% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On August 13th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 669 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 26.70% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a sulfuric acid price of 178.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 60.96% year-on-year.

The upstream market has significantly increased, while the downstream procurement enthusiasm is average

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market continues to rise, with sulfur prices rising from 933.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 973.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.29%. Over the weekend, prices fell by 13.86% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9483.33 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell by 7.16% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a high level, with a market price of 16000.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 11.44% year-on-year. The downstream market is average, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuations and gains in the future market

In mid to late August, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on August 7th, and the average price on August 11th was 8242 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.17%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9012 yuan/ton on August 7th, and 9000 yuan/ton on August 11th. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.14%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 9237 yuan/ton on August 7th, and the average price on August 11th was 9187 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation decreased by 0.54%.

This week’s polyethylene narrow adjustment. In terms of cost: This week, international crude oil showed an upward trend, which has a certain supporting effect on polyethylene prices. In terms of supply: The overall change in domestic polyethylene supply is not significant, and production is expected to increase next week. The demand for plastic film is in the off-season, and the follow-up of greenhouse film orders is slow. There is a good demand for packaging bags and wrapping films.

It is expected that polyethylene production will increase next week, and demand is expected to advance positively. It is expected that polyethylene will mainly fluctuate and adjust, with little change.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, this week (7.29-8.4), cost driving was dominant, and the overall price of raw silk increased. Some enterprises held prices and were not in a hurry to sell. In the face of rigid demand, the enthusiasm of weaving enterprises to purchase goods has increased recently, and the price of dried cocoons has also turned red. As of August 4th, the average price of raw silk in the domestic market was 475000 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.42% compared to last week and 9.26% year-on-year; The average market price of dried cocoons is 154000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.22% compared to last week and 8.45% year-on-year.

On the spot market, the trade circulation atmosphere is relatively warm, and the purchase and sales of cocoon silk continue to maintain a fierce atmosphere. Some silk reeling enterprises are accelerating their stocking speed, and weaving enterprises are also accelerating their stocking progress. The number of high-quality raw silk transactions continues to increase compared to last week. In the atmosphere of rising cocoon and silk prices, the cumulative increase in silk wool prices from June to July was basically around 10000 to 20000 yuan. However, it is worth noting that as the basic raw material for silk wool quilts, the price of tussah silk wool has not changed much in the past two months. The price of dried cocoons continues to rise, including regions such as Sichuan, Jiangsu, Guangxi, and Yunnan, where spot purchases are active.

On the summer cocoon market, the fresh cocoon market volume in major production areas such as Guangxi continues to decline, continuing the summer cocoon style. Summer cocoons in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shaanxi and other regions continue to be listed one after another, creating a strong atmosphere of panic buying. Mulberry orchards in more areas of the southern main production areas are entering a recuperation period, preparing for the autumn cocoon market in late August. With the continuous increase in silk prices, it is expected to push up the price of autumn cocoons for mass release in August.

Amidst the rapid price increase in the front-end, weaving companies have raised some product prices this week. Although the impact of the increase in raw silk raw materials is evident, some companies can only place orders at the original price, and the overall order situation is still not ideal. It is understood that there are also some companies that sell well in the wholesale process of silk wool products, such as real silk home textile companies, and real silk underwear companies, which have slightly adjusted the prices of their products. However, similar to the recent trend of some commodities, if the overall demand does not increase and profits are compressed, will the power of replenishing raw materials in the future decrease? It needs to be closely observed.

According to convention, the fabric clothing “Golden Nine Silver Ten” is expected to start around mid August, and the off-season in July is approaching its end. However, as August enters this week, in addition to the highlights of the situation, weaving enterprises still report that the order arrival situation is not satisfactory. In the commodity market, overall commodities rebounded in July, rising for two consecutive months, and most of them have corrected and consolidated today. The price increase during the traditional off-season still requires order fulfillment during the market transition from off-season to peak season from August to October.

Comparing the price data since the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, the price of raw silk has reached a new high since 2020. The continuous supply situation of cocoons since last year, combined with El Ni ñ o weather, has resulted in strong cost support for cocoon silk varieties. However, at present, the demand for terminal weaving is relatively weak, and the mismatch between supply and demand in the market is still accumulating. Analysts from Business Society believe that in the absence of obvious new news and the interweaving of long and short positions, raw silk prices may exhibit a narrow range of fluctuations in the short term.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has temporarily stabilized this week, with a sulfuric acid price of 160.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 71.22% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have temporarily stabilized this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 846.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 886.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 4.72%, and a year-on-year decrease of 18.40% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market slightly declined, with market prices dropping from 9566.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 9483.33 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.87%. Weekend prices fell by 7.16% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 16000.00 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 11.44% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly. Although the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, downstream customers have average enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid. However, the upstream sulfur market has continued to rise recently, with good cost support. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend is upward. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate slightly.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the monitoring of nickel prices by the Business Society, nickel prices fell first and then rose this week. As of August 4th, the spot nickel quotation was 174500 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.48% compared to the beginning of the week and a year-on-year decrease of 3.98%.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of Business Society, nickel prices have risen by 6 in the past 12 weeks, with a slight decline in recent times.

On a macro level, the US ISM manufacturing PMI recorded 46.4% in July, slightly lower than expected and shrinking for nine consecutive months; Manufacturing activity in the eurozone experienced its fastest contraction since May 2020 in July. The recent PMI data released in Asia shows that manufacturing activity in China, Japan, and South Korea remains weak, suppressing the outlook for metal demand. Recently, there have been frequent positive policies in China, but the bullish sentiment has basically materialized, making it difficult for market confidence to further rebound before more positive policies are announced.

In terms of supply: Russian nickel long-term cooperation orders flow in, and customs clearance conditions are not limited by whether imports are profitable, supplementing domestic supply. There is an oversupply of domestic resources, and various factories and warehouses have accumulated some. The nickel production in Jinchuan has decreased, and the Xinjiang smelter has resumed production; Small and medium-sized smelters such as Tianjin, Shandong, Jiangsu, and Zhejiang have all maintained stable production; The production of two large nickel enterprises in Zhejiang and Hubei continues to climb; The new production line in Guangxi last month continued to ramp up production this month. In August 2023, refining nickel enterprises in various regions will continue to increase production. After the resumption of production at Xinjiang nickel factories, it is expected to recover to over 1000 tons per month. It is expected that domestic refined nickel production will continue to increase by 5.93% to 22330 tons in August. In addition, the electric nickel project jointly constructed by Chinese enterprises in Indonesia is expected to be officially put into operation in August, with a full production capacity of up to 50000 tons per year.

Demand: downstream stainless steel. Last week, the total social inventory of stainless steel fell 2.3% on a weekly basis to 1.003 million tons, dominated by the digestion of 400 series resources. Downstream demand is still dominated by Major appliance, and according to Industry Online, air conditioning will still maintain a certain growth rate in September. New energy vehicles. According to the Passenger Transport Association, the retail volume of Alternative fuel vehicle in China’s market in July was 647000, up 33% year on year and down 3% month on month; The transaction of Nickel(II) sulfate in the market was weak, the price continued to fall, and the production of ternary precursors weakened month on month.

In summary, the domestic supply of pure nickel is relatively loose, and the supply of imported nickel is gradually increasing, limiting the shipment volume of traders. Demand differentiation, supported by low inventory, is expected to be dominated by short-term wide fluctuations in nickel.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China has slightly decreased this week. As of the 31st, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9566.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.20% compared to the 23rd price of 9585.71 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 10.59%.

Supply side: Recently, the price of hydrofluoric acid has slightly declined, with the mainstream price negotiated by various regions in China ranging from 9200 to 9600 yuan/ton. Poor demand has led to severe losses for hydrofluoric acid enterprises. Recently, some units have been shut down and waiting for market, resulting in a decrease in spot supply of hydrofluoric acid and a weak order situation for manufacturers. As a result, the hydrofluoric acid market remains sluggish, with raw material fluorite prices slightly declining and downstream refrigerant production declining, Less than 60% of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid has started construction, and some enterprises have accumulated inventory, which has affected the weak market situation of hydrofluoric acid.

Raw material side: Recently, the price trend of domestic fluorite has been temporarily stable, with an average price of 3056.25 yuan/ton as of the 31st. This week, the price trend has been temporarily stable, and the operating rate of fluorite enterprises has maintained. Upstream mining is still tight, and outdated mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental requirements, and fluorite mines are operating insufficient, which is environmentally friendly The requirements of emergency management departments and others are becoming stricter, and the difficulty of starting mining has increased. Due to the tight supply of raw materials, there is still support for the price of fluorite in the market. The price of raw fluorite has not changed much, and hydrofluoric acid companies are under heavy pressure.

On the demand side: The market for refrigerant products downstream of the terminal has slightly increased, and the operating rate of the refrigerant industry has slightly decreased. In addition, the refrigerant market has experienced a long-term downward trend, approaching quota issuance. The load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, and supply and cost factors are driving refrigerant enterprises to increase prices. The domestic R134a manufacturers are operating at low loads, and the price trend of R134a has increased. Some companies have a strong reluctance to sell, and there is currently no mentality to sell low-priced orders. Some businesses have raised factory prices, but the demand for consumer orders has not significantly improved. Currently, the market quotation for refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 24500 to 25500 yuan/ton, and the export is still relatively sluggish. The actual demand has not significantly increased, and the increase in refrigerant prices is limited. The upward trend of some refrigerants has had a certain positive impact on upstream raw materials, while the price of hydrofluoric acid has not changed much.

Future Market Forecast: The upstream raw material fluorite market remains stable, but fluorite companies have a strong intention to increase prices, and the downstream refrigerant industry has slightly declined in production. For hydrofluoric acid procurement, it is light, and hydrofluoric acid inventory is high. Chen Ling, a hydrofluoric acid analyst at Business Society, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market is unlikely to improve in the short term, with hydrofluoric acid prices mainly fluctuating at low levels.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China on July 24th was 2566 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2616 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of monoammonium phosphate increased by 1.95%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China on July 24th was 3687 yuan/ton. On July 28th, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3687 yuan/ton. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate remained stable.

2、 Market analysis

Ammonium prices rose this Monday, while ammonium prices remained stable. There is some support on the cost side, with an increase in downstream inquiries and a positive market atmosphere. The advance order for ammonium nitrate has reached late August, and some manufacturers have suspended or received a small amount of orders. Diammonium is currently in tight supply, with an increase in inquiries and a good performance in the export market.

As of July 28th, the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Hubei region is around 2650 yuan/ton, while the market price for 55 powdered ammonium in Shandong region is around 2700 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The quotation for 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3350-3650 yuan/ton, while the quotation for 57% diammonium in Shandong region is around 2700-2800 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiated.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s ammonium phosphate analysts believe that recent inquiries in the ammonium phosphate market have been good, with downstream compound fertilizer production rates increasing, demand following up, and market prices pushing upwards. With the support of pending orders, it is expected that the trend of ammonium phosphate market will be dominant in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic ethanol market fluctuated at a low level in July. From July 1st to 27th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers increased from 6550 yuan/ton to 6650 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.53% during the cycle and a year-on-year decrease of 6.60%.

At the beginning of the month, production enterprises stopped production for maintenance ahead of schedule due to losses, resulting in a decrease in supply and a shortage of goods in the market, leading to an upward trend in the domestic ethanol market. In mid month, downstream inventory is mainly consumed, and price fluctuations are limited. In the latter half of the month, after the price boost, high-end transactions were limited, and demand remained stable in the short term. Cost support was weak, and the ethanol market returned to calm after rising.

In terms of cost, as we enter July, supported by the decreasing supply of high-quality surplus grain in the domestic corn market, grain storage trade is reluctant to sell and prices are high. Ports and downstream deep processing enterprises are raising prices to replenish inventory, driving the domestic corn market prices to continue to be strong. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shangye Society, on July 27th, the benchmark price of Shangye Society corn was 2771.43 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.41% compared to the beginning of this month (2760.00 yuan/ton). The cost side of ethanol is a favorable factor.

On the supply side, in the early part of the month, domestic ethanol production enterprises gradually entered maintenance, supply decreased, and prices continued to rise. As of the end of July, there have been no significant fluctuations in the domestic ethanol supply side: Hongzhan Laha’s load has been boosted, Shenglong Parking, Jilin Fukang, and Tianyu have maintenance plans. The ethanol supply is mixed.

On the demand side, there will be a slight reduction in production in the chemical industry in the short term, but the demand loss is limited, and the short-term stable operation is the main demand. The demand for Baijiu is weak, and the short-term demand for ethanol is stable.

Future market forecast shows weakened cost and supply support, and stable demand operation. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation will be mainly on a wait-and-see basis.

Recent trends in sulfuric acid prices

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic sulfuric acid market price has slightly declined this week, with sulfuric acid prices dropping from 162.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 152.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 6.17%. Weekend prices fell 80.46% year-on-year.

Upstream market slightly rises, while downstream procurement enthusiasm weakens

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic sulfuric acid manufacturers have slightly decreased this week, with average inventory levels among manufacturers.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industry chains, the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, with sulfur prices rising from 830.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 876.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 5.62%, and a year-on-year decrease of 46.54% over the weekend. The upstream market has slightly increased, and cost support has increased. The downstream hydrofluoric acid market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 9585.71 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 10.41% year-on-year. The downstream titanium dioxide market has stabilized at a low level, with a market price of 15516.67 yuan/ton. Weekend prices fell 17.76% year-on-year. The downstream market has stabilized at a low level, and the enthusiasm for downstream procurement has weakened.

Small fluctuation and decline in the future market

In late July, the domestic sulfuric acid market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. Although the upstream sulfur market has slightly increased, cost support is good. However, the downstream titanium dioxide and hydrofluoric acid markets have stabilized at a low level, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing sulfuric acid has weakened. Under the contradiction between supply and demand, the product trend has declined. Business Society sulfuric acid analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly affected by various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, and the sulfuric acid market price may fluctuate and decline slightly.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price index of the domestic rare earth market has recently risen, while the domestic light rare earth market has risen. On July 23, the rare earth index was 452 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 55.11% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 66.79% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present)

The prices of neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium oxide, and praseodymium neodymium alloy in China have all increased. As of the 24th, the price of metallic praseodymium neodymium was 560000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.70% compared to the 15th; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 465000 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.91% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium oxide was 477500 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.37% compared to the 15th price; The price of neodymium metal was 585000 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of metal praseodymium was 622500 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% compared to the 15th price; The price of praseodymium oxide was 472500 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.28% compared to the price on the 15th.

The recent trend of the light rare earth market has been rising, and the prices of young rare earths in the first half have been declining for a long time. Affected by the increase in inquiries, the prices quoted by the holders are relatively firm, and the actual transaction prices have also increased. Recently, the prices of praseodymium neodymium rare earths have been raised in response to the increase in raw material prices. In mid to late July, some long-term orders were purchased, providing strong support for the light rare earth market, and the price trend of the light rare earth market increased. However, downstream magnetic material companies are very cautious in purchasing due to frequent price fluctuations of praseodymium and neodymium in recent times, and the transaction situation is still subject to certain restrictions. The overall price of rare earth products is mainly rising.

According to statistics, the production and sales of new energy vehicles in June completed 784000 and 806000 units respectively, with a month on month increase of 9.9% and 12.5%, and a year-on-year increase of 32.8% and 35.2%, respectively. From January to June, the production and sales of new energy vehicles reached 3.788 million and 3.747 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 42.4% and 44.1%, respectively. Recently, the country has accelerated the construction of charging infrastructure to better support the entry of new energy vehicles into rural areas, which is conducive to unleashing the consumption potential of rural areas, increasing the sales of new energy vehicles, and increasing the production and sales of new energy vehicles, which is beneficial for the domestic rare earth market prices.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern with large groups as the main body and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has decreased from 90% to 70%. According to statistics, China’s rare earth export data for June was 5008.9 tons, a year-on-year increase of 9.4%; From January to June 2023, a total of 26236.1 tons of rare earth commodities were exported, a year-on-year increase of 0.03%. The export volume of rare earth commodities in China increased, which to some extent supported the prices of the rare earth market.

Future Market Forecast: The supply of rare earth raw materials has been slightly tight in the near future, with orders and reserves of neodymium iron boron enterprises increasing slightly. It is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly rise slightly in the short term, and there will be a lack of primary and renewable supply sources in the medium to long term. Dysprosium and terbium oxides will also face shortages, driven by emerging and traditional demands such as energy-saving motors, industrial robots, wind power, variable frequency air conditioning, and consumer electronics, The global demand for rare earth permanent magnets is expected to continue to grow.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic ABS market has rebounded after rising, and spot prices have fluctuated in both directions. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of July 21, the average price of ABS sample products was 10675 yuan/ton, a+1.43% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

On the supply side, the load in the ABS industry has been increasing recently. In the early stage, there were more enterprise maintenance and independent load reduction. The current operating rate has rebounded to a high of 86%, and the on-site supply of goods has increased. The increase in inventory was significant, with an overall increase of 117000 tons. Recently, supply side support for spot prices has weakened.

In terms of raw materials, the overall performance of ABS upstream three materials this week was average. Among them, the market for raw material acrylonitrile has declined, while the price of cost end propylene has decreased. Due to independent load reduction and unplanned shutdowns in the early stage, acrylonitrile enterprises have some positive supply side effects, but demand is weak, and the wait-and-see sentiment among operators has intensified. The flow of goods on the market is not smooth, and prices have stagnated after falling.

This week, domestic butadiene prices were sideways. The strong prices of external and domestic production enterprises have boosted the mentality of merchants in offering, while the downstream construction and profit situation are still good, and there is some support for demand in the face of the market. With the arrival of imported cargo at the port, port inventory has increased, and some early maintenance equipment has restarted, leading to an increase in domestic production. Supply side expectations have led to cautious downstream inquiries, and the increase in butadiene market prices has weakened.

From the figure below, it can be seen that the market price of styrene has recently risen. In the early stage, international oil prices drove the pure benzene market, with strong cost support, and the styrene market followed suit. Recently, the styrene port went to the warehouse smoothly, and there was export news. It is expected that the short-term styrene Spot market will mainly rise.

In terms of demand: Currently, downstream factories, including the main terminal home appliance industry, have basically completed their stock preparation operations at the beginning of the month, and their enthusiasm has declined. Due to factors such as season and power restrictions, the operating rate is still at a low level. The manufacturer has a cautious mindset and the overall demand needs improvement.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the three upstream materials of ABS have seen mixed ups and downs, providing average support for the cost side of ABS. The construction of petrochemical plants has increased compared to the previous period, and market inventory has also increased simultaneously. The demand side support has fallen, and the overall weak and rigid demand pattern has been maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a consolidation market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the business community, as of July 14, the average price quoted by Epichlorohydrin enterprises was 7525.00 yuan/ton, which was the same as the price on Monday.

This week, the enterprise quotation in Epichlorohydrin market is mainly stable, and the market is very competitive. Recently, the price of raw propylene has fluctuated in a narrow range. The price of raw glycerin is mainly stable, and the impact on the cost side is limited. The capacity utilization rate of the supply side industry has declined compared with the previous period. The factory production and marketing are under no pressure, supporting the market’s rising mentality. The main downstream epoxy resin market is running strongly, and the purchase of raw materials needs to be followed up. The focus of Epichlorohydrin market negotiation is stable and rising.

Upstream propylene, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on July 13th, the reference price for propylene was 6370.75, a decrease of 2.26% compared to July 1st (6518.25).

Downstream epoxy resin, according to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the reference price for epoxy resin on July 13th was 12933.33, an increase of 3.19% compared to July 1st (12533.33).

Analysts of Epichlorohydrin from the Business Agency believe that the cost has little impact at present, and the supply and demand support still exists. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be in a stalemate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic aggregated MDI market continues to be weak. From July 10th to 14th, the domestic aggregated MDI market price dropped from 16280 yuan/ton to 16066 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 1.31%, a month on month decrease of 3.33%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.18%. The supply is relatively abundant, traders’ quotations are relatively lower, and the trading atmosphere has weakened.

The supply side and the market supply side are relatively abundant. Shanghai Lianheng 350000+240000 t/a mother liquor unit has been overhauled since June 11, which affects the rectification units of Huntsman Corporation and BASF. In addition to the supporting maintenance, Ningbo Phase I 400000 t/a unit has been shut down for maintenance, the other Phase II 800000 t/a unit has been operated at low load, and Yantai unit has been operated at reduced load, but Shanghai 600000 t/a unit has returned to normal operation.

On the cost side, the raw material pure benzene has seen a significant increase in the domestic market price of pure benzene. The international crude oil price continued to rise, and some downstream ethylbenzene and Caprolactam devices were restarted, increasing the demand for pure benzene. On July 13th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shangye Society was 6397.17 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.45% compared to the beginning of this month (6183.83 yuan/ton). Raw material aniline: Currently, there is abundant supply of aniline, with downstream off-season. Downstream factories are not operating high, and demand is weak. The raw material pure benzene has been listed for price increase, resulting in increased costs and a slight increase in domestic aniline prices. The cost side of aggregated MDI is influenced by favorable factors.

On the demand side, the buying momentum on the demand side is weak, and the demand for the cold industry is slightly shrinking. The peak season demand in the pipeline market has not yet started, and the market follow-up is relatively average, resulting in insufficient overall boosting power. The short-term aggregate MDI demand side is bearish.

In the future market forecast, the current transaction is weak, and analysts from Business Society’s aggregated MDI predict that the domestic aggregated MDI market will mainly be sorted out.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of July 12th, the price of PET water bottle level has been stable, with an average price of 7190.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.55% compared to the same period last week. The market supply and demand are balanced, and the mainstream price is currently around 7200 yuan/ton.

This week, the domestic PET price remained stable and weak, with a narrow range compared to the same period last week. Currently, the focus of negotiations is stable and the mainstream price is around 7200 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking is on demand, and the negotiation atmosphere is average. Manufacturers mainly offer discounts and take orders, while upstream cost support is average, and stable operation is the main trend.

Rubber and Plastic Commodity Index: On July 11th, the rubber and plastic index stood at 652 points, an increase of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.49% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 23.48% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from Business Society believe that the PET market is expected to operate in a narrow and weak range in the short term, with prices remaining around 7200 yuan/ton.