This week, the market price fell and the overall atmosphere weakened. The procurement of chemical fiber downstream of cyclohexanone is slowing down, the confidence of solvent market is weakening, and the procurement atmosphere is also flat. It is expected that the market price of cyclohexanone will weaken in the future. According to the monitoring data of business news agency, as of March 16, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 100033 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 42.56% and a year-on-year increase of 41.31%.

Region, price

East China: 10200-10400 yuan / ton, cash delivery

South China: 10200-10400 yuan / ton, cash delivery

Shandong area: 10200-10300 yuan / ton, cash delivery

In terms of raw materials, the price of domestic pure benzene dropped and rose again after the recent rise. The price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was increased by 300 yuan / ton with the implementation of 6750 yuan / ton, which was implemented by all its refineries. The price is effective from February 26. Sinopec’s quotation for high-end caprolactam this week was lowered by 200 yuan to 14500 yuan / ton (liquid premium products will be accepted and picked up in June).

During the week, caprolactam factory’s new order purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and the price psychology was obvious, and the price of cyclohexanone was weakening. The trading atmosphere of solvent market continued to be weak. In addition, the crude oil, pure benzene and commodity markets had more callbacks this week. The market was pessimistic. The trading activity declined, and the prices of traders followed the decline. Business community cyclohexanone analysts expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be depressed in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (March 15): 4716.67 yuan / ton

On March 15, the factory offer of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose, up 383.34 yuan / ton, or 8.85% compared with that of March 12. The raw material, orchid carbon, is well supported by the high price consolidation of calcium carbide. Downstream PVC market recently slightly increased, year-on-year price is higher, downstream customers to calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is better, market supply is short of demand. The main reason for the increase of calcium carbide is the dual control and power limit furnace shutdown in Inner Mongolia.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the price quoted by the manufacturer is about 4900 yuan / ton.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable this week. By the end of the week, the domestic market price of ammonium nitrate was 2900 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 2900 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 21.85%. On March 12, the commodity index of ammonium nitrate was 152.63, which was the same as yesterday, reaching a record high in the cycle, up 97.27% from the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from February 1, 2013 to now).

This week, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market maintained a high level. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers started their plants normally, and the supply of ammonium nitrate in the yard was normal. Some manufacturers reported that the delivery situation was general, and the price trend of manufacturers maintained a high level. Recently, the supply of goods in the yard was tight, and the transportation was normal, so the market price of ammonium nitrate was temporarily stable. Recently, the shipment market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers is normal, and the downstream is purchased on demand. The domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the price trend of some manufacturers is temporarily stable. Up to now, the mainstream negotiation in Shaanxi is 2800-2900 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation in Shandong is 2200-2300 yuan / ton, and the price in Hebei is 3000-3300 yuan / ton.

This week, the domestic price of concentrated nitric acid was temporarily stable, with the weekend price of 1983.33 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 1983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu chemical quoted 2050 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe quoted 1900 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai quoted 2100 yuan / ton. The price of synthetic chemical industry in Wenshui County is 1950 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic overhaul units have been running normally, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is normal, the goods on site are in general, the price trend of nitric acid on site remains stable, and the market price trend of ammonium nitrate is temporarily stable.

The price trend of upstream liquid ammonia rose this week, with the weekend price of 3396.67 yuan / ton, 0.49% higher than the price of 3380 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The start-up of liquid ammonia plant in the yard is normal, the spot supply in the yard is normal, and the price trend of liquid ammonia market is temporarily stable. In terms of fundamentals, the price of liquid ammonia in Shandong generally remains high. Due to the low inventory pressure, the operating rate of manufacturers remains at a reasonable level, and there is a certain price difference with other regions in China, especially the northeast region, which also undertakes some external orders, the price remains high. The ammonia quantity in Shandong Province is basically in the balance of supply and demand, which still has some support for the price. From the perspective of the downstream, the demand for agricultural fertilizer is slightly insufficient in the off-season. The price of the upstream rose slightly this week, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate Market is temporarily stable.

In the near future, the demand of downstream civil explosive industry is normal, and the production and marketing of nitro compound fertilizer is normal, and the price trend of raw material market has dropped slightly. However, the spot supply of ammonium nitrate is general, which has a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate Market. The ammonium nitrate analysts of business community believe that the market price of ammonium nitrate may remain volatile in the later period.

According to the data monitoring of the business news agency, the trichloromethane market in Shandong has risen sharply since February. As of March 10, the average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was about 3646.67 yuan / ton, up 51.94% from 2400 yuan / ton in early February.

First of all, affected by the enterprise burden reduction and low inventory, the spot supply of chloroform in Shandong is tight. On the one hand, in February, some enterprises and other devices were overhauled, resulting in a decrease in the overall output of chloroform, smooth delivery and no inventory pressure; on the other hand, in the later period, some enterprises had maintenance plans in March. According to the business news agency, Jinling planned to stop for maintenance for about 20 days on March 12. It is expected that the supply will continue to be tight in the later period and the market will be bullish. After the Spring Festival, the ex factory price of chloroform increased frequently. On March 10, the ex factory price of chloroform increased by 200-300 yuan / ton within a day. The mainstream ex factory price of chloroform including tax was about 3730-3800 yuan / ton. The market offer has risen further, with individual traders offering about 4500 yuan / ton with package and tax.

Secondly, the price of raw materials is high and the cost is relatively strong. Since the end of February, the price of raw material liquid chlorine in Shandong has increased by more than 1000 yuan / ton, with strong cost support. According to the business community, as of March 8, the price of liquid chlorine in Shandong has reached 1800 yuan / ton; the price of raw material methanol is high and in the rising channel, and the price has continued to rise since February. According to the business community’s monitoring, as of March 10, the price of methanol was 2462 yuan / ton, compared with 2290 yuan / ton at the beginning of February Yuan / ton rose by 7.51%.

Finally, the peak season of downstream refrigerants is gradually coming, the orders of refrigerants are increasing, even some models are full, the operating rate is increasing, and the demand side support is strengthened, which promotes the price of chloroform to rise.

Business community methane chloride data analysts believe that the current trichloromethane production enterprises in Shandong Province have little inventory pressure, coupled with the soaring raw material prices, cost pull, demand side and downstream peak season, it is expected that the price of trichloromethane will still have upward space in the later period.

Recently, the price of international crude oil market and domestic oil products have been soaring, and the price center of domestic MTBE market has moved up. The price of MTBE was 5466 yuan / ton on March 8, up 4.39% on March 3, according to the business news agency.

The results of the OPEC + meeting finally came to fruition, and the organization agreed to extend the oil production reduction to April; oil and military facilities in Saudi Arabia were attacked. The international crude oil market was stimulated by double positive factors, and the international oil price soared. In the past three days, the price of WTI and Brent crude oil soared by more than 10%. In terms of gasoline demand, the market demand returned to the level before the festival, and the “eight consecutive rises” of refined oil price adjustment were implemented. The market was bullish, and the demand for terminal replenishment and hoarding increased.

As the international oil price rises, the purchasing enthusiasm of middlemen in MTBE market increases, and the domestic gasoline demand is relatively stable, the demand for MTBE and other intermediates is supported. It is also reported that there is still a maintenance plan for the MTBE plant, and the market supply tends to be tight. At present, the price of domestic MTBE market is mainly rising.

The MTBE product analyst of business society energy branch thinks: the possibility that the price of refined oil will follow the correction of crude oil price in the near future, the price of MTBE market will rise to a high level, and it is expected that there will be a correction in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business club’s block list, the price of pure benzene stopped rising and turned to falling this week. On February 28, the price of pure benzene was 6500-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6690 yuan / ton); on Sunday (March 7), the price of pure benzene was 6400-6850 yuan / ton (average price was 6670 yuan / ton), the average price was 20 yuan / ton lower than last week, a decrease of 0.3%; it was 29.51% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

In the early stage, the price of pure benzene rose rapidly due to the positive external news. However, the price of pure benzene rose too fast in the early stage, and the resistance of the downstream to high price pure benzene was strong. In the early stage of this week, crude oil fell, the external market softened sharply, the downstream styrene fell in shock, the good news was released, the market took profits, and the price fell. However, the willingness of the industry to lower out is low, and Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price of 6750 yuan / ton is stable, and the market decline is limited.

In terms of external market, the price of pure benzene fluctuated downward this week. With the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and the United States, the capital of styrene industry was withdrawn, and the external market of styrene declined, which led to the external market of pure benzene falling. On Friday (March 5), the reference price of pure benzene in South Korea market was 862.33 US dollars / ton, down 35.34 US dollars / ton, down 3.94% compared with February 26, and the reference price of import in East China was 887 US dollars / ton, down 28 US dollars / ton, down 3.06% compared with February 26.

In terms of crude oil, crude oil fell first and then rose this week. In the early stage, the market worried that the rapid rise of oil price would lead to the return of more production capacity, and OPEC + might increase production. However, at the OPEC + meeting on the 4th, it was decided to maintain the current scale of production reduction until the end of April, and Saudi Arabia will still reduce production by an additional 1 million barrels per day, boosting crude oil prices. On February 26, Brent rose $3.085/barrel, or 4.68%; WTI rose $4.69/barrel, or 7.66%.

Downstream: styrene: this week, styrene fluctuated and fell. On March 5, the price of sample enterprises was 9366.67 yuan / ton, down 316.66 yuan / ton or 3.27% from last week, and up 41.56% from the same period last year. The price of crude oil went up; the supply of ethylene weakened and the price rose; pure benzene was mainly weak and styrene cost side support was acceptable.

Aniline: the aniline plant of Jiangsu Fuqiang was overhauled within a week, and some units in Jinling were put into operation at reduced load. Aniline enterprise inventory low, price rise. The main aniline plants in Shandong are expected to be overhauled and the supply is expected to decrease; the demand for downstream polymerization MDI and rubber additives is strong, the price is high, the profit margin is good, and the demand for aniline is good. The market is bullish on the short-term aniline Market. On March 5, the price of aniline was 11200-11500 yuan / ton in Shandong and 11400-11500 yuan / ton in Nanjing, up 5.88% from last week and 68.47% from the same period last year.

3、 Future forecast

In terms of crude oil, OPEC + continues to extend the production reduction period, and the oil price is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

Downstream: the profit margin of downstream products is large, and most of the inventory is low, the spot buying is more active, and the demand for pure benzene is better supported. Styrene: the operating rate of downstream EPS is increased, and the demand for styrene is strong. In addition, I heard that the export volume of styrene is expected to reach 70000 tons in March. With the coming of “gold, silver and silver”, the speed of port delivery will be accelerated. In the case of low import volume, the port inventory is expected to drop to less than 100000 tons in the month. It is expected that styrene will fluctuate strongly in the short term.

Internationally, with the recovery of styrene plants in Europe and the United States, the shortage of styrene supply eased, and the price of pure benzene in Europe and the United States fell back. In China, the replenishment of pure benzene at the main port from March to April is limited, and the downstream profit level of pure benzene is high, and the demand for pure benzene is good. It is expected that the speed of going to the warehouse will be improved. At present, the pure benzene market is greatly affected by styrene and crude oil, and it is expected that it will still fluctuate in the short term. Continue to pay attention to the downstream market, domestic and foreign pure benzene plant trends, crude oil, the impact of external market trends on the price of pure benzene.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic fluorite rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the average price of domestic fluorite was 2766.67 yuan / ton, 0.20% higher than 2761.11 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 12.01% lower than the same period last year.

The price of fluorite rose slightly this week. Recently, the manufacturers reported that the orders of fluorite were general, the shipping situation of the merchants on the floor was normal, the supply of fluorite on the floor was slightly tight, and the price on the floor rose. The domestic fluorite manufacturers are running stably, the start-up of mines and flotation units in the fluorite yard remains at a low level, the delivery of fluorite in the fluorite yard is general, and the fluorite market price rises slightly. As of the weekend, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2700 yuan / ton, the mainstream negotiation of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2700-2900 yuan / ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-2900 yuan / ton. Recently, the domestic fluorite price rose slightly .

The price trend of fluorite downstream hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10611.11 yuan / ton. The price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is stable, which has a certain positive support for the upstream fluorite market. The price trend of fluorite rises slightly. The domestic refrigerant market is on the rise. Recently, the automobile industry’s sales market has improved, and the refrigerant market has improved. The demand is mainly based on demand. The refrigerant industry is on the rise, and the market of various types of refrigerants has increased slightly. However, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, the sales pressure is large, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is rising, which brings a certain cost support, and the export volume of refrigerants has little change The output of downstream air conditioning is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerant increases little. On the whole, the positive factors support the refrigerant market generally, and the price increase is limited. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price is slightly higher, but the downstream receiving capacity is limited, there is a lot of wait-and-see mood, the delivery of goods is not smooth, the actual transaction focus is slightly increased, some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion, and the mainstream of on-site negotiation is 14500-16500 yuan / ton. Low load operation of domestic R134a manufacturers, favorable support, R134a price trend temporarily stable. However, the current demand is not good, the downstream enterprises do not start high, and the traders have a strong wait-and-see mood. At present, the market quotation of refrigerant R134a is mostly in the range of 19000-22000 yuan / ton, and the price is high, but the transaction atmosphere is general. The downstream refrigerant market has improved, and the price trend of fluorite has risen slightly.

On the whole, the market of the downstream refrigerant industry has slightly improved. In addition, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has remained high recently, and the supply of fluorite in the market is slightly tight. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the market price of fluorite may rise slightly in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of Business News Agency: since February, the price of hydrogen peroxide has entered the downward channel, and the price has been falling continuously. After the Spring Festival, the market is still weak, mainly down. As of March 4, the average market price of hydrogen peroxide had dropped to 942 yuan / ton, 24.9% lower than that in early February.

According to the monthly rise and fall chart of hydrogen peroxide from January 2020 to February 2021, it can be seen that hydrogen peroxide did not perform well in the first quarter of 2020, and began to decline for four consecutive months in February, mainly due to the limitation of hydrogen peroxide export orders and the delay of terminal paper and printing manufacturers. In 2021, hydrogen peroxide has dropped for two consecutive months, and the decline is still more than 30%. In early March, hydrogen peroxide still showed no signs of improvement and continued to decline. As of March 4, the price of hydrogen peroxide was 24.9% lower than that in early February.

Terminal demand is poor, hydrogen peroxide drops to the bottom

Since February, the traditional off-season of hydrogen peroxide consumption has come. The terminal printing industry, paper industry, caprolactam and other manufacturers have stopped for maintenance. The enthusiasm for purchasing hydrogen peroxide has declined. Coupled with the increase of logistics costs and limited transportation, the hydrogen peroxide market has entered the downward channel. During the Spring Festival, some hydrogen peroxide manufacturers started up normally, supply increased and inventory rebounded. After the Spring Festival, the terminal papermaking and printing industries have not yet fully resumed operation, and the terminal demand is still poor. The hydrogen peroxide manufacturers continue to reduce the ex factory price, and the price continues to fall, with a drop of as much as 21%.

In the first week of March, the price of hydrogen peroxide continued the weak market in February, because the terminal paper and caprolactam market rose sharply, the decline of hydrogen peroxide slowed down and continued to stabilize. The quotation of mainstream areas is in the first line of 900 yuan / ton.

End caprolactam papermaking industry recovers, hydrogen peroxide rise in March is expected

After the Spring Festival, although the hydrogen peroxide market has continued to decline, but the terminal paper, caprolactam market rebound, hydrogen peroxide market decline slowed down.

Paper: because nine dragon many bases before the festival issued after the Spring Festival price rise notice, after the festival paper mills have followed the price rise. However, due to the impact of public health events, the northern region stopped production ahead of time before the festival. With the stability of the post Festival health events, the downstream paper mills started to work actively. Therefore, the demand for raw paper began to increase. With the rising prices of raw materials and strong demand, the price of corrugated paper increased significantly. As of March 4, the price of corrugated paper increased by more than 9% compared with the beginning of February.

Caprolactam: after the Spring Festival, the external market, the United States extremely cold weather, crude oil, chemical refineries shut down, resulting in a sharp rise in pure benzene. Caprolactam was supported by the sharp rise of raw material pure benzene, and its operating rate was general. The terminal PA6 chip manufacturers started one after another, the demand increased, the market ushered in a rising channel, and the price continued to rise. As of March 4, caprolactam prices were up 31% from the beginning of February.

Li Bing, hydrogen peroxide analyst of business news agency, said: since mid March, the hydrogen peroxide Market is expected to usher in an inflection point and stop rising due to the warming of paper industry, rising paper market and high caprolactam price.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of March 3, the average price of domestic power grade lithium iron phosphate was 43000.00 yuan / ton. 2021 is a year that lithium iron phosphate is expected to counter attack. Just entering January, the average market price of lithium iron phosphate was 37000 yuan / ton. In February, the average market price rose to 41000 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period in January, the price rose by 10.81%. Entering March, the price rise momentum is still not strong The price soared to 43000 yuan / ton, up 16.22% to 6000 yuan / ton compared with the same period in January. With its safety and low-cost characteristics, lithium iron phosphate is becoming more competitive in the market. Lithium iron phosphate battery will rise, and the industry pattern is changing.

LiFePO4 battery is on fire

With the continuous high heat of new energy vehicles, LiFePO4 battery has been popular from home to abroad and is favored by more and more automobile manufacturers. The cost of LiFePO4 is about 0.08 yuan / wh, which can save 0.15 yuan / wh compared with ternary cathode materials, According to statistics, the shipment volume of LiFePO4 cathode materials in China will be 124000 tons in 2020, with a year-on-year growth of 41%. The increase of energy storage market exceeds the expectation. After years of development, LiFePO4 has been lukewarm and the overall market capacity is oversupplied. Until 2020, the power battery ranking will change dramatically, and LiFePO4 will successfully counter attack Elon Musk said that out of concern about the long-term availability of nickel supply, the company will consider supporting lithium iron phosphate (LFP) batteries in more electric vehicles. Since the beginning of this year, nickel prices have shown an upward trend. At present, the demand for power vehicle batteries is increasing, which has a certain role in pushing up the nickel price. Tesla (Shanghai) factory standard model 3 has all been switched to lithium iron phosphate batteries. Musk’s statement this time will also make great significance for the promotion and application of lithium iron phosphate batteries in the global market. Industry insiders infer that lithium iron phosphate batteries may become the main substitute of nickel cadmium batteries in the next five years, and will become a strong competitor of lead-acid batteries in the next 10 years In the next 20 years, it may replace the lead-acid battery as the main starting power supply, UPS power supply and backup power supply, and become the leader of the secondary battery. The cost of LiFePO4 is relatively low. LiFePO4 can be made from waste acid, ferrous sulfate and titanium dioxide after further processing. It has stable structure, long cycle life of charge and discharge, prominent safety advantages and relative competitive advantages in terms of comprehensive indicators.

Product specifications and quotation (ten thousand yuan / ton) date

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ power ﹣ 4.3-4.6 ﹣ March 3

Lithium iron phosphate ﹣ energy storage ﹣ 3.8-4.1 ﹣ March 3

Lithium carbonate industrial grade 7.8-8.1 March 3

Lithium carbonate battery grade 8.1-8.4 March 3

LiMn2O4 ﹣ power ﹣ 3.85-4.1 ﹣ March 3

Lithium manganate ﹣ capacity type ﹣ 2.8-3.4 ﹣ March 3

Licoo3 ﹣ 33.3-35.6 ﹣ March 3

Titanium dioxide enterprises switch to new energy for a share

Lithium iron phosphate “fire”, and more titanium dioxide leading enterprises cross-border entry, construction of lithium iron phosphate production line, switch to new energy, want to share, lithium iron phosphate production technology threshold is not high, the most important thing is to control the cost, the production of lithium iron phosphate the biggest cost is lithium products, lithium products need to be purchased, the price is uncertain according to market changes, and iron phosphate production needs to be improved The required iron element can be directly obtained from ferrous sulfate produced from titanium dioxide, and it does not need to be purchased again, which saves part of the cost. CNNC titanium white said that lithium iron phosphate, as one of the cathode materials, has comparative advantages over ternary materials in terms of safety, cycle life, production cost and other comprehensive indicators. Since its commercialization, it has been applied to automobile, ship and energy storage industry It has become the most potential cathode material at present. The person in charge of anada said that although the production path is not exactly the same as that of CNNC titanium dioxide and other peer enterprises, the company also uses part of the waste in the manufacturing process of iron phosphate, which can realize “turning waste into treasure”, which is the main reason why titanium dioxide manufacturers concentrate on entering the lithium iron phosphate Market. At present, the market demand for lithium iron phosphate has increased significantly, and the lithium iron phosphate manufacturers also continue to add investment To expand production capacity, the market share of new energy industry is increasing, and the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is also increasing, which is expected to drive the development of China’s lithium iron phosphate Market to the global market. In the short term, the supply of lithium iron phosphate is still in short supply, orders are saturated, and the market is too hot. As a result, some lithium iron phosphate enterprises have to stop taking orders to alleviate the shortage of production capacity, 2021 According to the statistics, the output of LiFePO4 reached 20630 tons in January, compared with 4660 tons in the same period of last year, with a year-on-year growth of 342.7%. Compared with ternary battery, LiFePO4 has the advantages of higher security and lower cost. Enterprises have increased LiFePO4 and become the mainstream product in the new era. In March, the supply of LiFePO4 is in short supply, and the relationship between supply and demand is further tense.

Market share of LiFePO4 is expected to further increase

Compared with ternary battery, LiFePO4 battery has the advantages of higher safety and lower cost, which is favored by more automobile manufacturers. According to the data of China Automobile Association, the production and sales volume of new energy vehicles in January has been increasing continuously, ranking the first for seven consecutive months. The sales volume of pure electric vehicles is the fastest, with a year-on-year growth rate of 415.5% and 319.8%, reaching 158000 and 143000 respectively Tesla Model 3, BYD Han, and Wuling Hongguang Mini EV all use lithium iron phosphate batteries. In October 2020, Tesla will replace lithium iron phosphate batteries, reducing the starting price of model 3 standard life upgrade from 271000 yuan to 249000 yuan. According to the data of China Railway Passenger Association, in November 2020, Tesla Model 3 will be sold at a price of 1 In March, the sales volume reached 21600 vehicles, with a month on month increase of nearly 10000 vehicles. The overall sales volume increased significantly, and the production and sales continued to be vigorous. With the continuous maturity of R & D technology of power battery enterprises, the promotion and application of CTP technology of Ningde times and blade battery technology of BYD can reduce the cost and improve the energy density of battery system, so that lithium iron phosphate battery has both high safety and low cost The market competitiveness of the company has been enhanced. At the same time, the domestic new energy vehicle market competition is becoming increasingly fierce, LiFePO4 has a price advantage compared with ternary materials, prompting car manufacturers to use more LiFePO4 batteries to reduce production costs and seize market share. With the intensified competition in the industry and the accelerated expansion of leading enterprises, the market share of LiFePO4 battery is expected to increase again.

The output of LiFePO4 reached a new high and still could not meet the downstream demand

In February, the leading enterprises of lithium iron phosphate expanded their production on a large scale, and the demand for lithium iron phosphate increased greatly. The inventory was in a hurry, which could not be made up by inventory. More and more chemical enterprises entered the market of lithium iron phosphate, which proved the certainty of lithium iron phosphate (LFP) in the next few years. In recent months, the capacity of LFP has been low, the supply exceeds the demand, and the shipment volume is greater than the production Quantity, leading enterprises, berterry, German side and Wanrun all have the phenomenon of inventory reduction. The monthly demand of Ningde times and BYD exceeds 40000 tons, which directly affects the continuous shortage of lithium iron phosphate. From the aspect of plant expansion of lithium iron phosphate enterprises, the fastest time is to wait until the second quarter, and large-scale production may be in the end of the year or early next year, with no shortage in the short term The relative shortage of LiFePO4 can be alleviated by this method.

China’s lithium industry chain layout in Europe has become an inevitable trend. The demand for LiFePO4 batteries and upstream materials has increased. As the main raw material for LiFePO4 production, lithium carbonate has shown a broad rising trend in recent months, soaring all the way. At present, the price of industrial grade lithium carbonate is 78000-85000 yuan / ton, and the price of battery grade lithium carbonate is 85000-80000 yuan / ton. On March 2, the lithium carbonate commodity index was 205.35, up 7.64 points from yesterday, down 49.31% from 405.10 points (2018-01-07), the highest point in the cycle, and up 108.39% from 98.54 points, the lowest point on October 16, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

According to LiFePO4 analysts of business news agency, due to the tight supply and demand of LiFePO4 in February, strong downstream demand and urgent production capacity of manufacturers, some leading enterprises have stopped taking orders. It is expected that the overall trend of LiFePO4 will rise in March, and the supply of LiFePO4 will not meet the demand. The new production capacity of large-scale model may be put into operation until the end of this year or the beginning of next year, which will lead to the decline of LiFePO4 throughout the year In the field of energy storage batteries, the state is paying more and more attention to environmental protection, and the pressure of environmental protection is becoming increasingly severe. It is the general trend that relatively environmentally friendly lithium-ion batteries are widely used. 2021 will usher in a year when the demand for lithium iron phosphate rises sharply, which has broad market prospects. (to get more information about goods and to grasp the price of commodities, welcome to subscribe to the business community through the official account of the business community, the market is the opportunity).

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community’s block list, this week’s Bromine price was mainly consolidated at a high level. From the beginning of the week to the end of the week, the average price of bromine in Shandong was about 34277.78 yuan / ton, with a high price. On February 25, the bromine commodity index was 120.27, unchanged from yesterday, down 2.20% from 122.98 (February 18, 2019), the highest point in the cycle, and up 104.12% from 58.92, the lowest point on October 29, 2014. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the mainstream price of domestic bromine enterprises is about 34000-35000 yuan / ton. The domestic bromine market has been reorganized and operated in a general atmosphere of negotiation. The output of bromine enterprises is expected to gradually increase in the later stage, the supply will increase, and the demand of downstream market will become weak. There will be some resistance to the high price of bromine. It is expected that the bromine market will be consolidated and operated in a high level in a short time.

In terms of raw materials: the domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable, and the quotation of manufacturers is stable. At present, the refineries in various regions in China have low inventory, the on-site supply is tight, the sulfur price is firm, and the downstream phosphate fertilizer export market continues to improve. In addition, the domestic spring ploughing fertilizer is approaching, which is good for the sulfur market, and the sulfur market in the future will maintain a high level, so we should pay attention to the follow-up situation of the downstream. The overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, the cost side changes little, and the downstream purchase demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda.

Analysts from business news agency believe that the downstream flame retardant and intermediate industries of bromine are better than before the festival, but they are in conflict with the continuously high price of bromine. The enthusiasm of enterprises to receive goods is general, and the trading atmosphere is general. The supply and demand sides are playing games. It is expected that the price of bromine will be high in the short term.

International crude oil prices continue to hit new highs in the year. The cost side drives domestic asphalt prices up. Coupled with the decline of asphalt operation rate of domestic refineries, the supply of asphalt market is reduced, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation and hoarding in the terminal market is rising. After the Spring Festival, the domestic asphalt market prices go up all the way. According to the price monitoring data of the business community, the price of asphalt on February 25 was 3050 yuan / ton, up 17.16% compared with that before the Spring Festival.

After the Spring Festival, the domestic asphalt price entered a rising trend, and the asphalt price rose sharply for seven consecutive days.

Recently, the price of international crude oil market continued to hit a high point in the year. As of press release, WTI oil price was at 62.5 US dollars / barrel. According to the monitoring of the business community, the prices of WTI and Brent crude oil have increased by more than 16% since February. The good news of the international crude oil market is spreading continuously, and the inventories of the United States and China are declining. In addition, OPEC + is still strictly implementing the production reduction agreement, and the effect of national oil production control is ideal, so it is necessary to increase the supply and lower the crude oil market price. At the same time, the cold wave in the United States limited the supply of shale oil and gas fields in the United States, and the speed of resuming production was slow. Accidental factors helped to increase the price of crude oil.

In terms of asphalt supply, affected by low temperature, Spring Festival holidays and other factors, the terminal asphalt demand has entered the off-season, and the asphalt operation rate of domestic refineries will fall to a low level in phases. The data shows that the comprehensive asphalt operation rate of domestic refineries has decreased from about 57% in January to about 44% in late February, and the asphalt production has declined for three consecutive months. China’s asphalt production in January is 2.5598 million tons, which is expected to increase by 2 The monthly output of asphalt dropped to 2.1089 million tons. It is expected that the supply will decrease, and the enthusiasm of middlemen and end customers will increase, which will boost the domestic asphalt price.

In terms of asphalt demand, northeast, North China, East China and other regions are affected by low temperature weather, road construction projects are stagnant, and asphalt demand is general. In southwest, South China and other regions, the asphalt terminal market still needs support. On the whole, the domestic demand for asphalt for terminal road construction dropped to a low level, and the rising price of asphalt pushed up the demand for asphalt storage.

Analysts from business news agency believe that after the recent sharp rise in international crude oil prices, coupled with the expectations of Goldman Sachs, Bank of America and other institutions to increase crude oil prices, domestic asphalt prices are bullish. However, it is still the off-season demand for asphalt, and the actual demand for domestic asphalt terminal roads is at a low ebb. It is expected that domestic asphalt prices will continue to rise, but the increase may be convergent.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda is weak, and the average price of Shandong market is about 457.5 yuan / ton. On February 23, the commodity index of caustic soda was 65.83, unchanged from yesterday, down 68.18% from 206.87 (2017-11-14), the highest point in the cycle, and up 1.11% from 65.11, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Hebei Province is stable for the time being. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton. The downstream purchasing demand is general, and the market atmosphere is not good. After the Spring Festival, there are still few inquiries and the transaction is light. It is expected that caustic soda will be mainly operated in the follow-up or narrow range. The price of caustic soda in Shandong is weak. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 390-470 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase demand is general, and the market atmosphere is not good. After the Spring Festival, there are still few inquiries and transactions. It is expected that the subsequent or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The quotation of flake caustic soda: 2000-2100 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 1600-1650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market and 2100-2150 yuan / ton in Guangdong market.

Upstream: in recent days, the liquid chlorine Market in Shandong has been weak, and the high-end price of liquid chlorine has been slightly reduced. At present, the downstream enterprises mainly purchase from rigid demand, and the price increase of scattered caustic soda enterprises has little impact on the caustic soda market. It is reported that the mainstream manufacturer Shandong Jinling plans to stop for maintenance in March. The buyer and the seller have a strong wait-and-see mentality, and the two sides start a game.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. The overall turnover of caustic soda was relatively light. On the whole, it is expected that the operation of caustic soda will be dominated by narrow fluctuation, and the specific situation depends on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the business association, the price of steam coal continued to fall. On February 23, the average port price of steam coal was maintained at 608.75 yuan / ton, up 5.55% year on year. On February 22, the steam coal commodity index was 74.85, down 1.96 points from yesterday, down 40.12% from the cycle’s highest point of 125.00 points (2021-01-19), and up 67.45% from the lowest point of 44.70 points on January 20, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Origin: after the festival, the supply of coal mines basically recovered, and the supply side as a whole was significantly loose compared with previous years. In order to do a good job of epidemic prevention and control, during the holidays, large coal mines generally do not have holidays for normal production. At the same time, most of the mines have fewer days off, enterprises do not stop work, or some enterprises return to work early, some stocks are on the high side, enterprises do not ship well, and prices have declined. It is understood that the coal price in Inner Mongolia of Shaanxi Province has been reduced by about 10-60 yuan / ton, and the overall coal sales are poor. The quotation of steam coal continued to fall, the demand of downstream procurement was light, multi-dimensional held long-term cooperative transportation, a small number of inquiries, more price reduction and counter-offer, the market transaction was light, and the buyer and the seller had a wait-and-see attitude.

In terms of downstream power plants: due to the recent rise in temperature, the demand for civil coal has weakened, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants has decreased. Both sides are still in a strong wait-and-see mood, with obvious price reduction and low transaction activity. The demand is not good, and the inventory pressure of upstream and port is large. At present, the mainstream open position price of 5500 kcal coal is about 590-605 yuan / ton.

Macro: according to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics on February 19, the national coal prices rose and fell in early February. The specific price changes of all kinds of coal are as follows: anthracite (washing block, volatile matter ≤ 8%) price is 950 yuan / ton, 20 yuan / ton higher than the previous period, or 2.2%. The price of ordinary blended coal (Shanxi pulverized coal and lump coal blended coal, calorific value 4500 kcal) was 558.3 yuan / ton, down 143.5 yuan / ton or 20.4% compared with the previous period. The price of Shanxi Dabiao (better quality blended coal with calorific value of 5000 kcal) was 626.7 yuan / ton, down 157.7 yuan / ton or 20.1% over the previous period. The price of coking coal (main coking coal, sulfur content < 1%) was 1540.0 yuan / ton, up 34.3 yuan / ton or 2.3% over the previous period.

Analysts from business news agency believe that: from the end of November 2020 to the middle of January 2021, the price of thermal coal will rise, and the price of thermal coal will continue to fall after the festival, because the national temperature rises significantly, and the demand for civil heating power will weaken. The available days of coal storage increased. At this stage, the national temperature is in a sustained upward trend, and the support of civil power is not available. On the whole, the price of steam coal during the spring festival may remain weak, and the demand of downstream market will be taken into consideration.

1、 Price trend

The comprehensive price of potassium chloride was temporarily stable this week. The average price of potassium chloride mainstream comprehensive quotation this week is 2140.00 yuan / ton. Overall, this week’s potassium chloride market was temporarily stable, with the potassium chloride commodity index at 67.94 on February 19.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s quotation of potassium chloride mainstream manufacturers is temporarily stable: Qinghai Salt Lake potassium chloride weekend ex factory quotation is 2050 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable; Anhui Badou potassium chloride weekend distribution quotation is 2230 yuan / ton, compared with the beginning of the week, the quotation is temporarily stable. The actual turnover of potassium chloride market this week is not good. On the whole, the main contradiction of the market is that supply exceeds demand, the trading atmosphere is cold, downstream purchasing is just in demand, the overall inventory is low, the purchasing market momentum is low, and the domestic potassium chloride market is stable.

3、 Future forecast

In late February, the overall trend of potassium chloride market was mainly small fluctuation. The KCl market is facing the pressure of three big mountains, namely, Hong Kong’s large stock, weak demand and downward international prices. Therefore, the main contradiction in the current market is that supply exceeds demand. KCl analysts of business society believe that under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects of the short-term KCl market, the KCl market may be dominated by high consolidation.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the market of acetic anhydride rose after the festival, and the price of acetic anhydride rose again. As of February 20, the price of acetic anhydride was 8633.33 yuan / ton, up 2.78% from 8400.00 yuan / ton before the festival (February 10).

Acetic acid price trend

It can be seen from the price trend chart of acetic acid that Hualu Hengsheng’s acetic acid equipment was shut down for maintenance after the festival, and the supply of domestic acetic acid raw materials decreased; the acetic acid manufacturers in Celanese, Texas, USA were shut down due to the cold wave, and the external price of acetic acid rose sharply, which stimulated the rise of domestic acetic acid price. The supply of acetic acid as raw material of acetic anhydride decreased, and the external price rose sharply, which stimulated the domestic acetic acid price to rise sharply. The cost of acetic anhydride rose, and the power of acetic anhydride rising in the future increased.

Market summary and future forecast

Bai Jiaxin, acetic anhydride data analyst of business news agency, believes that before and after the Spring Festival, the starting of acetic acid enterprises was low, the parking and maintenance of acetic acid enterprises increased, the domestic supply of acetic acid was insufficient, and the driving force of acetic acid price rise increased; in the external market, the parking of acetic acid equipment in Celanese, Texas, United States, and the external price soared, stimulating the domestic acetic acid price rise. The price of acetic acid rises, the raw material cost of acetic anhydride rises, and the driving force of acetic anhydride rises. It is expected that the market of acetic anhydride will rise, and the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate in the future.

On February 19, the domestic polysilicon market was still at a high level. At present, it is mainly stable. After the festival, the price has not changed much compared with that before the festival. Polysilicon manufacturers signed orders one after another in February, and some large manufacturers signed new orders in March. The manufacturers are willing to support the price, and the factory price is rigid and stable, or rising. At present, the operating rate of domestic polysilicon manufacturers remains at a high level. Up to now, except for one of the 11 domestic polysilicon manufacturers, the rest of the plants are operating normally and the market supply is stable. The inventory pressure of enterprises was relieved, the signing of orders continued, the capacity of downstream silicon material manufacturers was released, the purchase volume remained unchanged, and the demand support was obvious. According to the monitoring of the business association, the current mainstream transaction price of polysilicon with the first-class solar material in China is 57000-61000 yuan / ton.

Note: the above price includes tax

This week, Panxi titanium concentrate prices rose slightly. As the Spring Festival holiday is approaching, the real single market is cold, and the market price is basically stable. Up to now, the price of 46,10 titanium ore from small and medium-sized manufacturers is 1950-1980 yuan / ton; the price of 47,20 titanium ore is about 2100 yuan / ton, and the price of 38,42 titanium ore without tax is 1330-1350 yuan / ton. Business Club titanium concentrate analysts believe that: downstream titanium dioxide trade orders better, prices rise. In the short term, the price of titanium concentrate will continue to run at a high level, which is a single discussion.

According to customs data, in December 2020, the import volume of China’s titanium ore was 300500 tons, with a month on month increase of 18.86% and a year-on-year increase of 1.27%. The top three import countries are Mozambique, Vietnam and Australia, accounting for 43%, 22% and 11% of the total import respectively. From January to December 2020, the total import volume is about 3.0142 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 15.29%.

In December 2020, China’s export of titanium ore was 3870 tons, with a year-on-year increase of 74.68% and a month on month increase of 32.19%. From January to December 2020, the total export is about 2.58 tons, up 7.21% year on year.

On February 8, 2021, in the price rise and fall list of fluorine chemical industry, there were 0 kinds of commodities that rose, 0 kinds of commodities that fell, and 7 kinds of commodities that rose or fell to 0. Stable products include fluorite, hydrofluoric acid, R22, R134a, aluminum fluoride, cryolite and chloroform.

On February 8, the price trend of fluorine chemical raw material market was temporarily stable, with the price of raw material fluorite at 2741.11 yuan / ton. Recently, some fluorite plants in China started to work normally, and some mines and flotation plants in the plant were shut down. The fluorite supply in the plant was tight, but the downstream market rose recently, and the fluorite price was affected and went up. As of August 8, the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2600-2800 yuan / ton, and the price of fluorite in Inner Mongolia was 2500-2600 yuan / ton. It is expected that the price of fluorite will remain high and volatile in the future.

In the near future, the market trend of the downstream refrigerant industry is general, the operating rate remains low, and the demand for hydrofluoric acid is general. However, due to the reduction of the supply in the market, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. As of August 8, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10577.78 yuan / ton. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid has gone up, and the operating rate of domestic hydrofluoric acid is less than 60%. The enterprises reflect that the hydrofluoric acid in the market is now available The market of hydrofluoric acid is still bullish. Chen Ling, an analyst of business community, believes that the market of hydrofluoric acid may be slightly higher.

The price trend of aluminum fluoride products is temporarily stable, the market supply is normal, and the trading market is general. The ex factory price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Tianrui Crystal Technology Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton, and the price of aluminum fluoride of Zhengzhou Zerun energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8700 yuan / ton. The overall market supply of aluminum fluoride is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable.

In recent years, the price trend of trichloromethane in Shandong is weak. The downstream market is in the off-season as a whole, and the demand for trichloromethane is poor. With the completion of goods preparation in the downstream market, the trichloromethane market continues to decline. At present, the starting of chloroform production enterprises in Shandong is high, the market spot supply is stable, and the shipment situation of enterprises is flat. Near the Spring Festival holiday, the logistics transportation is limited to a certain extent, and the enterprises bid for shipment in order to prevent excessive warehouse pressure in the future. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 2250-2350 yuan / ton.

In recent years, the price trend of domestic cryolite is temporarily stable, the operation of the plant is stable, and the supply is normal. The domestic negotiation price is about 6500-7000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiation. In general, the recent market of fluorine chemical industry is general, and it is expected that the trend of fluorine chemical industry will remain volatile in the later period.

In the near future, the price trend of downstream refrigerants R22 and R134a is temporarily stable, the raw material chloroform continues to be weak, the support of cost side is weakened, the downstream goods preparation is finished, the traders continue to withdraw from the market, the demand side continues to decline, and the market center moves down. Due to the higher price of hydrofluoric acid, the affected price of refrigerants rises slightly. Refrigerant R134a prices rose slightly, the market is strong operation. Near the end of the year, the downstream construction continued to decline, but the raw material support was strong, and the refrigerant market rose slightly.

According to statistics, the domestic p-xylene ex factory price rose slightly this week, with an average price of 5300 yuan / ton at the weekend, up 1.92% compared with 5200 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 15.87% year on year.

The price trend of domestic p-xylene market is rising, and the domestic PX operation rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 tons new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical unit is stable, Fuhai Chuang unit starts one line, Pengzhou petrochemical unit is stable, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is normal, Jinling Petrochemical unit is stable, Qingdao Lidong unit is full load, Qilu petrochemical unit is stable The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, Hengli petrochemical plant is running normally, the domestic supply of p-xylene is normal, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is rising. This week, the operating rate of p-xylene plant in Asia dropped to about 60%, the supply of PX in Asia decreased, and the PX external price rose this week. By the end of the week, the closing price of p-xylene market in Asia was 718-720 USD / T FOB Korea and 736-738 USD / T CFR China. The PX external price rose this week, and about 40% of domestic products needed to be imported, and PX external price closed The price shock brought some positive support to the domestic market, and the domestic PX market price went up.

The price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose this week. As of the 4th, the settlement price of the main contract in WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was at US $56.23/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in Brent crude oil futures market was at US $58.84/barrel. The price rise of crude oil futures this week was mainly affected by the strong economic data in the United States, the decline of crude oil inventory, OPEC + production reduction and other favorable factors, but the US dollar declined The strong restriction on the rise of oil price and the rising trend of international crude oil price are good support for domestic petrochemical products, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is higher.

This week, the price trend of PTA Market in the lower reaches rose, and the domestic PTA spot market maintained a rising trend. By the end of the week, the average spot price in the domestic market was 4100 yuan / ton. In terms of equipment, the PTA start-up remained above 87%. Although Ningbo Yisheng 2 million ton plant was overhauled as planned on January 24, fuhaichuang 4.5 million ton plant returned to normal operation and Fujian Baihong new plant was put into operation, PTA is still in the situation of oversupply, and the risk of accumulation is increasing. As the Spring Festival is approaching, the terminal textile factories are gradually taking a holiday to finish finishing, and the number of looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has dropped to about 40%. I heard that about 2 / 3 of the weaving enterprises in Xiaoshao area have stopped for a holiday recently, and the logistics and transportation in the later stage will also be limited. However, due to the rise of crude oil price, the price trend of PX in the upstream will rise slightly.

Overall, the textile industry gradually began to holiday, demand has declined, but the price trend of crude oil is mainly rising. For the upstream PX on-demand procurement, the price trend of PX market is temporarily stable.

Business community PX analyst Chen Ling believes that the recent trend of crude oil prices continued to rise, but the downstream textile industry trading market has declined, the domestic PX market supply is normal, and it is expected that the PX market price will be stable next week.

Equipment maintenance, transportation blocked, domestic BDO supply continued to be tight, the domestic BDO market rose again this month. According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 12800 yuan / ton on January 1, and 13600 yuan / ton on January 31, with a price increase of 6.25% and a year-on-year increase of 38.83%.

This month, the domestic BDO market was strong and upward. In some areas, the transportation is limited, the equipment is overhauled, the market supply is tight, the manufacturers are profit-making, they are reluctant to sell, the offer continues to rise; the downstream demand follow-up is acceptable, some of the middle and lower reaches are bullish, and the focus of discussion continues to rise.

In terms of units, Sichuan Tianhua and Chongqing Jianfeng have reduced the impact of limited gas to about 70%; Panjin Dalian has reduced the impact to about 60-70% due to the shortage of raw materials; the start-up of Yanchang oil is unstable within a month, and the load is maintained at about 30-40%; Dongyuan was shut down for maintenance from January 20 to January 30; Shannxi Shanhua’s 30000 ton plant was restarted but unstable, and the 100000 ton plant was put into maintenance plan at the end of the month; Kaixiang was shut down for maintenance from the end of December to January 7, and now it is stable; Shannxi black cat 12 At the end of the month, the company stopped to replace the catalyst and restarted in mid January, but the load was not high; Xinye in Xinjiang stopped to January 20 due to boiler maintenance at the beginning of January, and its operation is stable at present; Hemei stopped for a short time in late January, which has been restored; two sets of units in Tunhe changed the catalyst in mid and late January, which has been restarted at present.

Downstream, PTMEG started steadily; PBT: about 60% of Kanghui’s two lines started, and there is a plan to stop another line in the near future, and the specific details need to be followed up. Large Pu pulp and TPU factories follow up on demand; some small factories enter the holiday mode. On the whole, the demand side inventory is expected to decrease in the next month.

Next month, the trend of raw materials calcium carbide and methanol is weak and stable, and the support of cost side is general. The supply side is expected to increase, but it is still controllable. During the Spring Festival holiday, the downstream small factories leave the market, the demand decreases, and the on-site wait-and-see mood increases. In February, the Spring Festival holiday was saved, and the actual trading time was shortened. On the whole, the supply and demand side is still supported. BDO analysts of business club expect that the domestic BDO market will continue to rise in February.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of January 31, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 6866 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 25 (the reference price of butanone was 6666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 3.0%. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (the participating price was 7500 yuan / ton on January 1), the price decreased by 633 yuan / ton, or 8.44%.

At the end of January, the domestic butanone market experienced a slight upward trend after shock adjustment

January is really cold for the domestic butanone market, just like the weather in Northeast China. The butanone market began to fall all the way from the beginning of the month to the end of the month. Since the 24th and 25th, some domestic butanone factories and their holders’ quotations have been adjusted in a volatile way. The market has been fluctuating. The rise is mainly due to the smooth delivery of goods after the price reduction of Shandong large factories in the early stage On the 25th, the factory increased the ex factory quotation of butanone to 6700 yuan / ton by 300 yuan / ton. The decline was mainly due to the second-class cargo holders. The spot inventory was eager to ship, and they sold olive branches one after another, with a decrease of 200 yuan / ton. Then, the new orders in the market increased slightly, and most of the purchases were just needed before the festival. On the 27th and 28th, the domestic butanone market rose as a whole. After digesting the inventory in the early stage, the overall inventory pressure of domestic factories was not big, and the offer price of butanone factories increased, with an upward adjustment On January 31, the average factory price of domestic butanone market was 6766 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 25 (reference price of butanone was 6666 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 100 yuan / ton, or 1.50%. So far, the butanone market, which has been declining for nearly a month, finally ushered in a small rise in the end of January.

On the upstream side, in late January, the LPG civil market is on the way to decline. According to the data monitoring of business society, the average price of LPG civil market in Shandong was 4150 yuan / ton on January 15, and 3633.00 yuan / ton on January 29. From January 15 to 29, the average price of LPG civil market in Shandong has been reduced by nearly 600 yuan / ton, with a decline rate of 14%. The main reason for the decline is that the price of LPG civil market in Shandong has been reduced by 14% In terms of international crude oil, since January 15, the trend of international crude oil is not clear. During this period, it mainly fell in shock, which is difficult to support the LPG market. Secondly, in terms of demand, the northern market is affected by social and public health events, the demand has declined, and transportation in some areas is limited, which brings some resistance to the market. Under the mentality of buying up but not buying down in the downstream, the market entry is rare, the market transaction atmosphere is weak, the manufacturers’ shipment is blocked frequently, and the ex factory prices are falling one after another, which stimulates the downstream to purchase in the market. But the effect is not good, downstream market enthusiasm is limited, manufacturers in inventory pressure, forced to drop factory prices, market weakness.

Just need to replenish butanone market more stable finishing operation

At present, the butanone market is mainly in stable operation, transportation is gradually limited, and downstream replenishment is just needed. It is expected that the domestic butanone market will be mainly in stable operation in the early spring festival.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business community, the price of caustic soda was weak. The average price of Shandong market was 482.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 472.5 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a price drop of 2.07% and 18.53% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on January 28 was 67.99, down 1.43 points from yesterday, down 67.13% from 206.87 points (November 14, 2017), the highest point in the cycle, and up 4.42% from 65.11 points, the lowest point on October 9, 2020. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the market of caustic soda is weak as a whole, the atmosphere of conversation is weak, and the overall transaction is flexible. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The purchase price of Shandong’s main alumina decreased by 10-16 yuan / ton, and 32 yuan / ton to 390 yuan / ton. The price of caustic soda in Shandong Province has been reduced. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is 400-500 yuan / ton. The downstream purchase demand is general. There is a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range of caustic soda will be weak. The price of caustic soda in Hebei is stable for the time being. The mainstream ex factory price of 32% caustic soda is about 470-580 yuan / ton, and the downstream purchase demand is general. It is expected that the follow-up or narrow range finishing operation of caustic soda will be dominant.

Demand: on the downstream side, the downstream industry is in the off-season of production, and the demand side lacks support. At present, the average price of domestic alumina is basically maintained within 2300-2400 yuan, which is at a historical low. The production profit of enterprises is low, and the willingness to resume production is weak. In addition, the manufacturers mainly purchase caustic soda on demand near the Spring Festival holiday. The good news is scarce, and the support for caustic soda market is still poor. It is expected that caustic soda will still maintain low-level operation in the short term. The purchasing of downstream enterprises is general, and the market price has little power to rise.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the 03 th week (1.18-1.22) of 2021, there were 2 kinds of commodities rising, 1 kind of commodity falling and 2 kinds of commodities falling to 0. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (2.74%) and PVC (1.97%); the main commodities falling were calcium carbide (- 3.05%). This week, the average rise or fall was 0.33%.

Analysts from the business society believe that in the near future, the overall supply of caustic soda is sufficient, the overall ex factory price of caustic soda is stable and small, and the downstream purchasing demand is general, which has a certain conflict with the current price of caustic soda. As a national wind vane, the price reduction in Shandong will drive the national trend downward. It is expected that caustic soda will be sorted out later or in a narrow range, depending on the downstream market demand.

On January 27, the crude benzene commodity index was 47.01, which was the same as yesterday. Compared with the highest point 131.84 (2013-01-28) in the cycle, the crude benzene commodity index decreased by 64.34%, and increased by 53.93% compared with the lowest point 30.54 on April 8, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

In January 2021, the crude benzene market fluctuated. The domestic ex factory price of crude benzene was 2951.25 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3001.67 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly rise of 1.71%.

In January 2021, the price of pure benzene of Sinopec was increased twice, with a total increase of 250 yuan / ton. As of January 28, Sinopec’s refineries uniformly implemented 4650 yuan / ton.

Since August last year, coke prices have been rising all the way, coking enterprises have higher profits, positive start-up and good sales. Crude benzene supply has been relatively stable, so far coke has increased 15 rounds, a total of 1000 yuan / ton, coking enterprise profit is considerable. In the first half of the month, the price of pure benzene in East China continued to rise, while the market of hydrogenated benzene was mainly rising. The demand for crude benzene was good, and the price of crude benzene rose. In the second half of the month, with limited transportation in some areas, high freight prices and less impact from transport vehicles, crude benzene prices recovered after the shock, and the trend of downstream related products pure benzene was mainly volatile. The pressure in East China and North China was more obvious. Downstream hydrogenated benzene manufacturers reduced their prices one after another, and the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene declined, which forced the crude benzene bidding price down. The overall crude benzene market fluctuated in the second half of the month The actor. As of the end of this month, the inventory of pure benzene is still high. Although the external price of crude oil and pure benzene is strong, the demand support is limited. The start-up of styrene and other units downstream of hydrogenated benzene has declined this month, and the maintenance of units is more, so the demand support is weak.

The overall operation rate of hydrobenzene enterprises is stable at about 65% in the near future, with little change this month. The production of hydrobenzene units is relatively stable near the Spring Festival, and some enterprises shut down in the early stage start operation one after another this month, with stable demand for crude benzene.

In the future, the business community believes that at present, the pure benzene external market and crude oil market perform well, which has a certain support for the market. However, the price of pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene remains volatile this week, and the fall of styrene price has a great impact on the overall industrial chain. The crude benzene bidding price remains stable at the end of the month, and the market activity is reduced near the Spring Festival. It is expected that the market will be stabilized before the festival.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (January 27): 11360.00 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: according to the monitoring of business news agency, the domestic price of cis-1,3-polybutadiene rubber was 11360.00 yuan / ton on the 27th, down 0.53% compared with the previous day. On the one hand, the price of butadiene continues to weaken, and the cost of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber is a drag. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of January 27, the butadiene price was 6057 yuan / ton; on the other hand, the rubber plant of Yangzi Petrochemical Company stopped unexpectedly for some reason in the early stage, the market speculation price rose too fast, and there was a callback demand in the market; finally, near the Spring Festival, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not high, and some businesses sold goods at low prices. According to the business news agency, at present, the quotation of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber market is slightly lower than that in the earlier stage, with the mainstream newspaper of Daqing at 11100-11200 yuan / ton, Qilu at 11200-11400 yuan / ton, Qixiang, Jinzhou and Sichuan at 10700-10900 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: low price of raw materials, soft demand. It is expected that the price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will narrow down in the future.

As of December 22, the average 180CST price of domestic fuel oil was 4007.50 yuan / ton (including tax), down 0.93% from the beginning of the week, according to the data of business news agency.

On January 22, the fuel oil commodity index was 81.16, unchanged from yesterday, down 29.98% from 115.91 (October 17, 2018), the highest point in the cycle, and up 76.13% from 46.08, the lowest point on August 15, 2016. (Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Domestic marine oil raw materials support the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of January 22, the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Zhoushan area was 4000 yuan / T; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4100 yuan / T; the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 180CST in Shanghai area was 3950 yuan / T; and the self provided low sulfur quotation of fuel oil 120cst was 4050 yuan / T.

This week, the international crude oil price fluctuated downward, and the support for fuel oil price was limited. WTI crude oil prices rose 1.35% this week, while Brent crude oil prices rose 1.81% this week.

Singapore’s fuel oil inventory has decreased and its support for fuel oil has increased. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development board (ESG): in the week ending January 20, Singapore’s light distillate inventory decreased by 126000 barrels to a two-week low of 15.488 million barrels; Singapore’s medium distillate inventory increased by 604000 barrels to a three week high of 15.158 million barrels; Singapore’s fuel oil inventory decreased by 305000 barrels to a three week low of 21.999 million barrels. On January 19, Fukuang shale oil tender launched a total of 7000 tons of shale oil with a trading volume of 7000 tons. The weighted average price was 2658 yuan / ton, up 202 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business community energy analysts believe that the fuel oil 180CST market is in a strong wait-and-see mood in the near future, the downstream demand is light, and the terminal purchase is mainly on demand. On the whole, it is expected that the fuel oil 180CST market will be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China rose slightly this week. By the end of the week, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 5625 yuan / ton, up 0.22% from 5612.5 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and down 8.91% year on year. The price trend of phthalic anhydride in China was mainly volatile.

This week, the price trend of domestic phthalic anhydride market rose slightly. The market situation of phthalic anhydride was general. The recent downstream demand had little change. The price trend of o-benzene was temporarily stable. The plasticizer market was mainly volatile. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market rose slightly. The domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers have little change in operation. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride on the floor is about 60%. The domestic phthalic anhydride spot supply is sufficient. The downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand. The goods on the floor are general, and the trading market on the floor has little change. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market in East China is temporarily stable, with limited high-end transactions on the market. The mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in East China is 5600-5800 yuan / ton in the negotiation of neighboring France, 5400-5500 yuan / ton in the negotiation of naphthalene method; the mainstream price of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 5600-5700 yuan / ton, the market outlook of phthalic anhydride is still in place, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride market rises slightly.

This week, the domestic price of o-benzene was temporarily stable, and the market price was maintained at the level of 4700 yuan / ton. This week’s trend was stable. The low domestic price of o-benzene was due to the bad influence of phthalic anhydride market. In addition, the import price of o-benzene in the port area declined, and the external quotation of o-benzene remained volatile. The actual transaction price was subject to negotiation, and the actual transaction price was discussed in detail The price trend is temporarily stable, the raw material o-benzene price is low, which is bad for the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride, but the downstream plasticizer market has improved, and the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride rises slightly.

This week, the market price of phthalic anhydride downstream DOP fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 9425 yuan / ton as of the 22nd, 0.53% lower than the price of 9475 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The DOP raw material cost, ISO octanol price, DOP raw material cost, DOP enterprise equipment start-up, PVC price, and downstream customer demand were low. Plasticizer market rising power weakened, downward pressure still exists, transaction price is subject to real-time price, the overall DOP price is about 9200-9500 yuan / ton, DOP market rising power weakened, downward pressure still exists, phthalic anhydride price rise is limited.

In general, the recent crude oil price trend remains high, the domestic o-benzene price trend remains stable, but the plasticizer Market slightly falls, and the phthalic anhydride market price mainly fluctuates.

In the future, the price trend of domestic o-benzene is mainly stable, but the transaction market of plasticizer has a downward trend. The price trend of DOP in the future is slightly lower, and it is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will remain volatile next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of bulk commodities, the domestic price of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin was stable this week. This week, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products is 5100 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of chlorinated paraffin 52 was stable. The overall trend of paraffin wax market is weak and stable. Traders are cautious in taking goods, with obvious wait-and-see mood, and mainly purchase on demand in the downstream. At present, the ex factory price of grade 52 chlorinated paraffin in East China is about 4800-4900 yuan / ton, that in Northeast China is about 5200 yuan / ton, that in Northwest China is about 5200 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is 4500-4600 yuan / ton.

In terms of international crude oil, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States fell on January 21, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $53.13/barrel, down US $0.18. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 56.10 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.02 U.S. dollars. Crude oil WTI fell slightly on Thursday after data showed an unexpected increase in U.S. crude oil inventories last week, which made the market worried about slowing fuel demand and expected to rekindle. Meanwhile, U.S. stimulus measures were expected to limit price decline.

Liquid wax, liquid wax prices more stable this week, the overall trading atmosphere is light and stable. In terms of liquid chlorine, the market prices of liquid chlorine in North China and East China rose, while the prices in other regions were relatively strong, and the liquid chlorine market was mainly strong in the short term. In terms of demand, near the Spring Festival holiday, downstream enterprises mainly need orders, replenish goods appropriately, and have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, while the overall trading atmosphere is general.

3、 Future forecast

Business community chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that this week chlorinated paraffin overall market trading atmosphere is general, wait-and-see atmosphere is relatively strong. The output of chlorinated paraffin kept low and the inventory kept low. With the strong support of raw materials, the price of chlorinated paraffin is expected to be strong in the short term, and the possibility of a slight increase is not ruled out.

1、 Price trend

The factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week. This week, the average ex factory quotation price of the mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped from 3333.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 3300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 33.33 yuan / ton, or 1.00%, up 17.58% over the same period last year. Overall, the market of calcium carbide fell this week, with the commodity index of 86.46 on January 15.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China fell this week: oviganone’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3300 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Inner Mongolia Zoomlion’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3400 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Ningxia Xingping’s quotation of calcium carbide this weekend is 3200 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton lower than the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market was high this week. The quotation of small material is 1150 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of medium material is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; that of large material is 1200 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week. The price of raw materials in the upstream was high and the cost support was good, which had a positive impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory prices fell this week. The price of PVC decreased from 7050.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6962.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 1.24%. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 2.01%. This week, PVC prices fell slightly, the market is general, the downstream of calcium carbide procurement enthusiasm is general, overall, this week’s PVC market has a negative impact on calcium carbide prices.

3、 Future forecast

In late January, the calcium carbide market fluctuated slightly and fell mainly. The price of raw material blue carbon was high and the cost of calcium carbide was well supported. The downstream PVC market has fallen sharply recently, downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about purchasing calcium carbide, the output of calcium carbide has risen, and the market supply exceeds demand. It is predicted that the price of calcium carbide in Northwest China may drop slightly in late January.

After new year’s day, the East China liquid epoxy resin continued to negotiate in 20100-21500 yuan / ton barrels. Today’s market as a whole rose by about 1000 yuan / ton. The market offer was 21500-23000 yuan / ton. The factory offer was mostly 23000-24000 yuan / ton with limited supply. The delivery needs to line up. Among them, the mainstream negotiation of solid resin is about 17200 yuan / ton, and the orders of the current factory are increased compared with the previous period. In addition, the upstream raw materials also show signs of warming up, and the epoxy resin is on the rise obviously.

The shortage of supply is the main reason for the upsurge of liquid epoxy resin market. After a wave of decline, under the influence of the mentality of buying up but not buying down, the inventory of downstream factories has been basically exhausted, and the epoxy resin market has fallen to the break even point. Some factories have a single proposal to reduce the operating rate. After a short period of price balance, the terminal procurement has gradually recovered, but a few factories have been affected by extremely cold weather Gas affected the equipment failure. The epidemic was caused by the decrease of the factory operation rate. As the holiday approached, the logistics was tight and the inventory demand increased. However, the epoxy resin inventory was not large. With the arrival of a wave of demand, the factory had to queue up to pick up the goods. Under the tight supply, the factory’s offer was raised to 23000-24000 yuan / ton one after another.

In terms of plant, Nantong Xingchen 160000 tons liquid epoxy resin plant was restarted, and Huangshan Jinfeng 15000 tons solid epoxy resin plant was shut down for technical transformation. Guodu chemical’s epoxy resin plant is in the state of shutdown, mainly out of stock.

BPA rose again after a weak correction, with little increase. However, due to the increase of confidence of downstream shippers, shippers’ offer tentatively pushed up. The current mainstream offer is 13000 yuan / ton, and factories mainly stop offering, among which Changchun chemical offer is 12800 yuan / ton, Lihua yiweiyuan offer is 13500 yuan / ton. In terms of market, East China and North China offer is maintained at 12800-13000 yuan / ton. The market of epichlorohydrin, another important raw material, maintained a stable trend, with little change after the festival. At present, epichlorohydrin closed at 12200-12500 yuan / ton.

At present, the price of raw material bisphenol A in downstream resin plants is about 14000-16000 yuan / ton, while the price of epichlorohydrin is 11500-12200 yuan / ton. From this point of view, the current profit value of liquid resin is relatively low. After bottoming, it is reasonable that with the increase of terminal demand price, the business community expects that the short-term liquid epoxy resin will maintain 21500-23500 yuan / ton

Upstream fluorite prices remained stable, while hydrofluoric acid prices rose slightly. Overall, the ex factory prices of aluminum fluoride enterprises remained stable. According to the data of business news agency, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 9166 yuan / ton on January 8, which was the same as that at the beginning of the week.

The price trend of fluorite in domestic market is stable for the time being. In the near future, some plants in the yard have been parked. The spot supply in the yard is tight, and the price of fluorite in the yard remains high. The operation of fluorite manufacturers in southern China is stable, the operation of mines and flotation units in the field is normal, the delivery of fluorite in the field is improved, and the price trend of fluorite market is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid in the downstream has risen slightly, and the terminal downstream is mainly purchased on demand, and the purchasing sentiment has risen compared with before.

At present, the overall operating rate of aluminum fluoride remains high, the market supply is sufficient, and the overall price of aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable. In addition, the price of upstream fluorite hydrofluoric acid remained stable, which failed to effectively boost the aluminum fluoride Market. The market price of aluminum fluoride was stable as a whole.

The aluminum fluoride industry analyst of business society chemical branch thinks: the price of upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid rises steadily, which has a limited role in boosting the aluminum fluoride Market. It is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will keep stable in the short term.

This week, the domestic methanol market was mainly weak. According to the monitoring data of the business community, the average price of methanol producers in Shandong was 2282 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 2270 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The price fell by 0.55% in the week, increased by 7.58% month on month, and increased by 3.42% year on year.

As of 1.8, methanol market price summary by Region:

Region, price

Qinghai Area/

Shanxi Province 2100-2130 yuan / ton cash out

Liaoning area: RMB 2220 / T

Fujian area: 2600-2650 yuan / ton

RMB 2450 / T in the two lakes area

Anhui: 2340-2380 yuan / ton

Henan Province: 2230-2250 yuan / ton

This week, the domestic methanol market showed a general performance, and the prices of the mainland and ports all declined. The overall situation of the mainland has declined due to the shrinking olefin procurement in Northwest China and the weak demand in Hebei and Shandong. The blockade of some road sections has affected the flow of goods in some areas of Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi and Shanxi, but the degree of impact is uncertain at present.

In terms of external market, as of January 7, the closing price of methanol in CFR China was US $304.50-305.50/t, and that in CFR Southeast Asia was US $369.50-370.50/t. US Gulf methanol closed at 113.75-114.25 cents per gallon, while FOB Rotterdam methanol closed at 343.50-344.50 euros per ton, down 3 euros per ton.

In the future, new units such as Yanchang Zhongmei Yulin and Shenhua Yulin are put into operation, the supply side is expected to increase, the downstream inventory is on the high side, and the overall demand is relatively limited. Business community methanol analysts expect that the domestic methanol market will be weak in the short term, mainly downward.

Maximum amplitude 34.29%

In 2020, the domestic ethanol market is mainly on the rise. According to the monitoring data of the business community (with 95% purity ethanol as the reference), the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the year is 5520 yuan / ton, and at the end of the year, the domestic ethanol market price is 7000 yuan / ton, with an annual price increase of 26.81%. The lowest annual price is 5212 yuan / ton on April 3, and the highest annual price is 7000 yuan / ton on December 31 The maximum amplitude is 34.29%. Under the influence of rising raw materials, increasing demand and low inventory, ethanol production in different regions rose in turn.

9 months up

The domestic ethanol market has been stable for a long time. In 2020, the price of ethanol will rise in nine months, with a maximum increase of 9.15%. During the Spring Festival in 2020, some production enterprises received production tasks and worked overtime to produce 75% medical alcohol, but most of them were mainly used in the surrounding areas of the province. During the Spring Festival, there was no inter provincial transportation, and 95% of the prices were monitored by the mainstream business community and collected passively. With the gradual control of the domestic epidemic, foreign demand rose sharply, domestic ethanol production enterprises accumulated abundant inventory, and the price fell slightly. However, most of the overseas export orders are produced according to the demand, and the prices are mainly discussed in detail, which is good for the domestic ethanol market. In the fourth quarter, the price of corn, the raw material for production, rose, once again driving the ethanol market up sharply.

The price breaks through eight year high

According to the annual comparison chart of ethanol prices of business associations, the highest price of domestic ethanol market will reach a new high in nearly eight years in 2020. The last time the price reached close to 7000 yuan / ton was back to the beginning of 2011.

2 billion gal

In late March, the Renewable Fuels Association of the United States said that US ethanol producers may reduce their annual production by 2 billion gallons as the new crown outbreak continues.

254200 tons

The demand for disinfection was boosted. From January to September 2020, China’s exports of unmodified ethanol totaled 254200 tons, the highest in at least a decade.

45%

From March 2, 2020, China will no longer impose the anti-dumping tariff of 301 measures against the United States on the imported goods that the relevant enterprises meet the conditions and purchase from the United States according to the principles of marketization and commercialization. The modified ethanol (tariff No.: 22072000) imported from the United States will be levied at 45% tariff. Judging from the situation from January to September in 2020, there is no direct import of ethanol from the United States for the time being, and it is rumored that it will arrive as soon as mid December.

Magnesium market trend in 2020

The price of pickling ingot is mainly in the range of 16000-15600 tons in December 2020, and the overall price of pickling ingot is not stable.

The specific price range of each region is as follows:

In fugu area, the ex factory spot exchange including tax is 15600-15900 yuan / ton; in Taiyuan area, it is 15800-16000 yuan / ton; in Wenxi area, it is 15900-16000 yuan / ton; in Ningxia area, it is 15700-15800 yuan / ton.

Magnesium ingot is original magnesium ingot according to national standard (GB / t3499-2011); non pickling, no wooden pallet and non payment acceptance price, mainly based on single negotiation.

This round of rising market is based on two logical lines.

In the early stage of the rebound, the external single centralized mining, the increase of inquiry volume, combined with the price differentiation of magnesium and aluminum, the market bottomed out and the rebound expectation was strengthened; in addition, the raw material price rose, and the cost side bonus, the industry saved itself, and the willingness of mainstream manufacturers to raise prices increased significantly.

At present, due to weather factors, the transportation sector is affected, the market trading volume is average, some traders close down in advance, and the price is mainly weak and stable.

Future forecast

Near the end of the month, some magnesium ingot manufacturers’ demand for return funds is on the rise. In addition, the early hoarders have higher willingness to ship at the current price, and the long short game is intensified. It is expected that the probability of stable operation will increase in the near future, and the oscillation range is 15500-15800 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the PC market as a whole will continue to rise in 2020. In the first half of 2020, as raw materials for helmets and masks, the price of PC has gone up by leaps and bounds. In June, the one-day increase exceeded 500 yuan, and the focus of negotiation has been rising. PC enterprises have ushered in a small peak, In the second half of 2020, the PC market has been steadily rising, with big stability and small movement. The demand is purchased on demand, and the focus of negotiation is stable. In December, the PC market is weak and the price has declined. However, due to the excessive increase in the early stage, the price increase from February 2020 to December 2020 is still as high as 43.36%, and from the beginning of the year to the end of the year, the price increase is nearly 6000 yuan / ton.

Helmets become a new favorite in the first half of 2020

In the first half of 2020, according to the Ministry of public security, the “one helmet one belt” security guard operation will be carried out nationwide from June 1, 2020. The traffic control department of public security will strengthen the law enforcement and management, and check and correct the behaviors of motorcycle and electric bicycle riders not wearing safety helmets and car drivers not using safety belts according to law, The market of riding safety helmets will usher in growth. As the raw material for the production of helmet front baffle, the price of PC will rise by 200-600 yuan / ton. Some traders are reluctant to sell. The PC market will undoubtedly usher in a small peak of development. In a 500g helmet, the consumption of PC is between 100-150g. According to the demand of 100 million helmets, the total consumption of PC will reach 15000 In 2020, the domestic PC production is expected to exceed 1.5 million tons, far exceeding the PC demand driven by helmet baffle.

From January to April in 2020, the domestic PC market is mainly stable, with little price change, normal shipment of manufacturers, normal operation of devices, stable negotiation atmosphere, just need to purchase and contract customers.

In May and June of 2020, the PC market has a strong rising trend, with high price, low price and limited trading volume. At present, the PC market has a smooth delivery without obvious pressure, and the supply side is sufficient. Recently, the products of the industrial chain are showing an upward trend. Driven by the cost side, the PC market price will further rise, showing an upward trend as a whole.

The PC market will rise steadily in the second half of 2020

In July 2020, the domestic PC market is weak and stable, with limited negotiation space and insufficient follow-up of downstream demand. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for businesses. The market is stable, with BPA as raw material rebounding sharply. The cost side may form a certain support for the PC market, the focus of transaction will rise, the demand for raw materials will increase, and traders will be reluctant to sell. The situation will be weak and stable in July.

In August 2020, the domestic PC market is stable, with cautious trading, on-demand procurement, high operation of upstream raw materials, certain cost support, general transaction atmosphere and stable overall market.

In September 2020, the domestic PC market is running at a high level, and the market is bullish. The business quotation is firm, and the price rises sharply. Compared with the same period of last month, the price rises by 6.92%, showing a broad upward trend. The major enterprises are bullish and reluctant to sell.

In October 2020, the domestic PC market will operate stably, with normal manufacturers’ shipment and normal device operation, stable negotiation atmosphere, active merchants’ shipment, smooth logistics and no pressure on inventory. Most of them are small orders and just need to purchase. The overall PC atmosphere is good, which will remain stable in the short term and digest the previous increase.

In November, the domestic PC market price continued to rise, the goods tight state was obvious, the transaction atmosphere was cautious, the price continued to rise, the PC raw material price went up, the cost support was strong, the traders had a good mentality, the shipment was smooth, the PC Inventory was low, and the price was likely to continue to rise

In December, the domestic PC operating rate has declined, and the equipment maintenance of some enterprises has shown a weak downward trend in December. Due to the excessive increase in the early stage and the suppression of downstream procurement demand, the current trading atmosphere is still flat, and the willingness to prepare goods near the Spring Festival is not obvious, and the trading atmosphere is in a downturn.

PC analysts of business news agency believe that: near the 2021 Spring Festival, PC traders are not willing to prepare goods, and the current market situation is weak and the atmosphere is confused.

1、 Price trend

At the beginning of 2020, the price of steam coal maintained stable operation, and then the price was in a weak downward state from the beginning of February to the end of April. From the middle of May, the price began to rebound to the first ten days of July, and the price fluctuated. From the middle of July to the end of August, the price fell again, and from the beginning of September, the price of steam coal began to soar. According to the data of business news agency, the average market price of steam coal in early 2020 was 560.25 yuan / ton, and as of December 28, the average market price of steam coal was about 783.75 yuan / ton, with an overall price increase of 39.89%. Careful observation is not difficult to find that the overall trend presents a slightly oblique “W” trend.

According to another monitoring data of the business community, as of November 2020, the price is in an upward trend in seven months and a downward trend in four months, with more room for rise than for fall.

2、 Factor analysis

First quarter: in January, the price of steam coal was around 562 yuan / ton, and the price was mainly stable. Due to the small number of coal pallets and the Spring Festival effect, the market negotiation atmosphere is flat and the market continues to be weak. Due to the Spring Festival, the downstream demand is mainly to digest inventory. According to the business news agency, as of January 19, 2020, the six major coastal power plants have an inventory of 14.8965 million tons, a daily consumption of 62.65 million tons, and 23.78 days of usable days. It is more difficult for coal mine workers to return to work in February than before. The shortage of coal supply in producing areas led to a small rise in the price of steam coal. In March, with the resumption of coal enterprises and the gradual lifting of road transport restrictions, the overall supply tension has been significantly eased. As of March 4, Shanxi coal province announced that 569 coal mines will resume production, with a production capacity of 927 million tons per year, with a recovery rate of 92.97%. There are more than 60 coal mines in Yulin area of Shaanxi Province. There are 166 coal mines in Ordos area, with a total capacity of 558 million tons. After one month’s resumption of production, the shortage of coal supply has been significantly alleviated. The resumption of production and supply of coal mines in Shaanxi and Inner Mongolia continue to improve, but the downstream terminal coal consumption is mainly rigid demand, and the resumption of work of downstream enterprises is slower than the release of upstream production capacity. At present, most of the coal mines are generally sold, and the price of coal from the origin is falling.

In the second quarter, in early April, according to the monitoring of the business community, the price of steam coal was around 487.25 yuan / ton, and the price of steam coal continued to decline recently. In terms of origin, the demand is general. In order to prevent the overstock of coal mine inventory, some coal mines set production by sales. The output decreased slightly, and the coal price decreased by 10-20 yuan. There are few coal pallets, so the atmosphere of market negotiation is flat, and the market continues to be weak. Steam coal prices were strong in mid and early May. Overall, under the background of production reduction in the production area, overhaul of Daqin line, sharp decline in port inventory, and increasingly stringent import restrictions, daily coal consumption of coastal power plants soared. As of May 22, Qinhuangdao Port inventory was 3.89 million tons, down 475000 tons on a week-on-week basis; as of May 22, in addition, import restrictions became more stringent. From January to April, the coal import volume is close to 130 million tons. If calculated according to the rumored import quota of 250 million tons in the market at the beginning of the year, the remaining import quota is less than 50%, the import quota of some ports has been exhausted, and the import restrictions are becoming stricter. The price of steam coal ushered in a turning point since June 9. On June 17, the average port price of steam coal remained at 570 yuan / ton, up 2.75% from 554.75 yuan / ton on June 1. After a round of decline in March and April due to the “public health incident”, the price of steam coal rose in May. After May Day, the highway charges were resumed, the downstream users of coal purchased more on demand, and the delivery in the pit market was poor, so the price was under pressure. The market demand of downstream power plants rebounded slightly, driving the price of steam coal up slightly.

In the third quarter, the price of steam coal fell in July, the precipitation in southern China increased sharply, and the hydropower generation was seriously affected. The purchase of coal from downstream power plants fell slightly, and the demand dropped slightly. At the same time, under rainy weather, the temperature was low, the residents’ demand for electricity could not be fully released, and the daily consumption increased in general. In August, the price of steam coal was temporarily stable. Now, the supply of production area is relatively tight, and the daily consumption of downstream power plants is increasing due to weather. However, the demand of power plants for steam coal is mainly based on the demand of Changxie coal price inventory. Datong Qinhuangdao line resumed traffic, the shipment volume decreased compared with the previous tourism, the inventory of Beigang remained at medium high level, the seller’s willingness to support the price remained, the terminal demand was general, and the transaction situation was general. Most coal mining and chemical industry in Shaanxi had a slight rise in price, while the price of coal mining and chemical industry was stable in September. Compared with Shaanxi, the number of coal price adjustment is relatively small. The price of a small number of coal mines has increased by about 5-10 yuan, while the price of other coal mines is temporarily stable. With the approaching of the holiday, the inspection of the main coal producing areas has been upgraded, coupled with the restriction of coal management ticket, the coal supply tends to be tight.

In the fourth quarter, the overall price of steam coal went up. The supply and demand of the main producing areas are still tight, and the coal pit operation rate has reached a relatively high point under the support of supply policy. Affected by recent safety accidents, environmental protection and other multiple factors, the safety production signal was enhanced at the end of the year, and the amount of coal mining was affected to a certain extent. Shandong, Shanxi, Hebei, Henan and other places have issued environmental protection production limit notices, resulting in a sharp drop in supply. At present, the mainstream open storage price of 5500 kcal steam coal in the port is about 690-710 yuan / ton. The temperature in coastal areas dropped, and the demand for heating for civilian use rose seasonally. With the decrease of temperature and the rise of daily consumption, the demand of downstream terminal transportation is also strong. The coastal power plant purchase terminal demand has been released. The inventory of Beigang is low and the shortage of goods still exists. In view of the soaring spot price and the enhancement of macro-control expectation, the coastal power plants are mainly on the lookout, and the procurement is relatively rational. In addition, the rapid economic recovery has increased the coal demand of coal consuming enterprises. In the past two months, the purchasing of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving the demand for coal to increase greatly.

In addition, from the comparison above, it can be seen that the price of steam coal has risen to the highest level in three years from 2018 to 2020.

Business analysts believe that: at this stage, the main coal producing areas are still relatively tight. Towards the end of the year, the environmental protection policy is more stringent. Some coal dealers reflect that there will still be the phenomenon of cars and other coal. Second, in terms of downstream power plants, this winter, affected by the extremely cold weather of “La Nina”, the temperature in North and Northeast China dropped rapidly, driving the increase of coal demand. Moreover, the inflow and outflow of the Three Gorges Reservoir remain at a low level, the hydropower output weakens, and the thermal power generation continues to rise. Third, the amount of imported coal decreased. In November this year, China imported 11.671 million tons of coal, a decrease of 9.11 million tons or 43.84% compared with 20.781 million tons in the same period last year. Due to the stop of loading and unloading of Australian coal, the quota of imported coal for some users is close to zero, and due to “public incidents”, the management of ports has been strengthened. 4. Affected by the domestic economic recovery, the purchasing of building materials, chemical industry, cement and other industries has continued, driving the demand for coal to increase greatly. Fifth, under the influence of domestic policies, in order to support the domestic economy, the state has been more strict in the control of imported coal. On the whole, the price of steam coal still has a strong upward momentum in the short term. Specifically, the demand of downstream market.

According to the monitoring data of the business news agency, the external price of ethylene has risen recently. On December 21, the price was US $999.50/ton, and on December 25, the average price of ethylene was US $1020.50/ton, up 2.10%. The current price has risen 20.95% month on month, and the current price has risen 33.44% year on year.

In the near future, the overall external ethylene market is on the rise. Asian ethylene market prices rose slightly. As of the 24th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $990-1000 / ton, CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $925-935 / ton. The price of ethylene market in Europe increased greatly. As of the 24th, FD in northwest Europe closed at US $1058-1073 / T, CIF in northwest Europe closed at US $1076-1088 / T. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to $721-733 per ton as of the 24th. Recently, the market of ethylene in Europe, America and Asia has shown a rising trend. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene market is good, the market trading atmosphere is positive, and the market has been rising all the way.

International: on December 24, the price of WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose slightly, with the settlement price of the main contract at US $48.23/barrel, up US $0.11. Brent crude oil futures market prices rose, the settlement price of the main contract at 51.34 U.S. dollars / barrel, or 0.10 U.S. dollars. Oil prices rose slightly on Thursday, mainly due to the news that the UK and the EU have signed a post brexit trade agreement.

Recently, the market price of styrene has been falling continuously. Pure benzene prices fell, styrene cost support weak. Downstream production and sales decline, demand weakens, styrene spot shipment is difficult, and the downstream ABS price falls sharply. At present, the positive support of styrene is insufficient, and the night price of styrene futures also continues to decline. Recently, the spot price of styrene in East China is around 6600-6750 yuan / ton.

Next, the price of crude oil will rise with the support of OPEC international news agency’s data, so it is expected that the price of crude oil will rebound with the support of OPEC international news agency’s data.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, the o-benzene quotation of Sinopec dropped by 500 yuan / ton, and the domestic o-benzene market fell. As of December 22, Sinopec offered 5000.00 yuan / ton of o-xylene, down 9.09% from 5500 yuan / T at the end of last week (December 20).

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart that the mixed xylene price is stable this week, the cost of o-benzene is stable, the price of mixed xylene is stable, and the upward momentum of o-benzene is weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that the price of phthalic anhydride fell sharply in December. This week, the price of phthalic anhydride continued its downward trend in December. In December, phthalic anhydride dropped by 19%, and the market of phthalic anhydride fell sharply. The demand for phthalic anhydride was weak, and the market for o-benzene was weakened, and the negative effect was increased.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst at the business club, this week, the price of mixed xylene of o-benzene raw materials tends to be stable, the cost of o-benzene is stable, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient; in December, the price of phthalic anhydride plummeted, which is negative for the market of o-benzene, and the demand for o-benzene drops sharply. In the future, the mixed xylene market tends to be stable, and the driving force for the rise of o-benzene is insufficient. The sharp drop of phthalic anhydride market drag down the price of o-benzene. However, with the stabilization of phthalic anhydride market, the demand of o-benzene is stabilized, and the pressure of o-benzene decline is weakened. It is expected that the future market of o-benzene will be weak and stable.

Price trend

According to the business agency data monitoring, plasticizer DOP prices rose sharply this week. As of December 21, the average price of DOP was 10533.33 yuan / ton, which was significantly higher than that at the beginning of the week, with an increase of 8.97%.

Upstream market of industrial chain

As can be seen from the octanol price trend chart, octanol prices rose sharply this week, up 16.10%. Affected by the shutdown of n-butanol unit emergency maintenance, the price of n-butanol rose sharply, which led to the sharp rise of octanol price, the rise of DOP cost and the increase of DOP motivation.

Downstream market of industrial chain

From the PVC price trend chart can be seen, PVC prices this week a small shock drop. PVC market shock down, DOP demand fell, DOP support weakened, plasticizer DOP market negative.

Market review and future expectation

Business agency DOP data analyst Bai Jiaxin believes that octanol prices soared this week, driving DOP prices up. Supported by DOTP consumption, octyl alcohol is in short supply in the near future. The rising price of octanol in the future market is well supported, and the cost of DOP raw materials is rising. However, in terms of demand, DOP price is high, and downstream customers are more resistant, and PVC market is weak, and DOP demand is insufficient. In the future, the expected increase of octanol price supports DOP’s rise, but the insufficient demand leads to the lack of motivation for DOP’s rise, which is not enough to support the continuous rise of DOP. It is expected that DOP market will maintain strong stability after rising.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price trend of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose sharply this week. As of the end of the week, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 9190 yuan / ton, 5.03% higher than that at the beginning of the week, and 10.25% lower than that at the beginning of the week.

In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend has continued to rise. Up to now, the mainstream price of domestic hydrofluoric acid in various regions is 9000-9500 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid trading market is mainly higher. Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is slightly tight, and the floor price continues to rise.

First of all, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose. As of the end of the week, the domestic fluorite price was 2702.22 yuan / ton, up 1.67% this week. Recently, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was tight. As the temperature dropped, some manufacturers in the North stopped their equipment, and the on-site supply decreased, and the domestic fluorite price rose. As of the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiations was 2600-2800 yuan / ton. The rising price of fluorite was the cost support of hydrofluoric acid market, and the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market rose under the influence of favorable support.

The market of domestic refrigerants rose slightly this week. In recent years, the sales market of the automobile industry was general, and the market of refrigerants was improved. The trend of the refrigerant industry was rising, and the market of various types of refrigerants rose slightly. However, the manufacturers were under pressure to ship, and the sales pressure was large. The growth of raw material hydrofluoric acid was limited, and the support force was general. The export volume of refrigerants changed little The output of air conditioner is low, the demand is scarce, the off-season effect of after-sales market continues, and the price of refrigerants increases little. On the whole, the refrigerant market is generally supported by favorable factors, the price continues to be low or will become normal, and the transaction center of gravity remains low. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price remains at a low level. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual delivery of goods is not smooth. The actual transaction center of gravity is slightly increased, and some businesses still have the phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 13500-15500 yuan / ton. The domestic R134a market trend rose slightly, but the auto market industry continued to be depressed and the transaction atmosphere was light. There is sufficient supply of goods in the market, and there are new production capacity entering the market in the future market. The competition is fierce, and the supply side gradually forms a negative effect, and the price rises slightly. However, the downstream demand does not significantly improve, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market rises.

Third, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is slightly tight, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has risen slightly due to the partial maintenance of hydrofluoric acid devices in the field. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8800-9300 yuan / ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9000-9500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is mainly rising, manufacturers reflect that the recent bullish sentiment is strong, and the later hydrofluoric acid market price has a greater driving force.

On the whole, due to the rising price of raw material fluorite, the prices of downstream refrigerants have risen slightly. In addition, due to the recent overhaul of some domestic hydrofluoric acid units, the spot supply on the spot is slightly tight. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to rise.

Recently, the domestic cyclohexanone market is mainly waiting and finishing. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of December 15, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market was 6783 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 8.97% and a year-on-year decrease of 6.65%.

The raw material of pure benzene is weak, the cost support is general, and the offer of cyclohexanone is stable, but the market shipment is blocked, and the transaction atmosphere is general. The East China market offers 7450-7550 yuan / T in cash, and the specific actual order is discussed. In terms of downstream demand, caprolactam spot supply is tight, and it is purchased on demand.

Price summary of cyclohexanone by Region:

Region, price

7400-7500 yuan / ton in East China

In South China, 7450-7550 yuan / ton is delivered in cash

7200-7300 yuan / ton in Shandong, cash delivery

The cost side support is weak, and the cyclohexanone factory shipment is hindered. However, the spot supply of caprolactam is tight, or there is some support for cyclohexanone. The cyclohexanone analysts of the business community expect that the market of cyclohexanone will be stabilized in the short term.

Price trend

According to the data from the orthobenzene society, the price of benzene did not rise rapidly in early December. As of December 14, the contract price of o-xylene executed by Sinopec in East China was 5500.00 yuan / ton, while that of Sinopec in North China was 5650 yuan / ton. The average price of o-xylene was 5560 yuan / ton, up 1.09% compared with 5500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (December 1); the price of o-xylene decreased by 1.07% compared with the highest point (December 2) of 5620.00 yuan / ton.

Upstream market of o-benzene

It can be seen from the price trend chart of mixed xylene that the price of mixed xylene rose sharply in December and then stabilized, with an overall increase of 9.15% in December, and the cost of o-benzene rose. However, with the price of mixed xylene stabilizing, the driving force of o-xylene’s rise was weakened.

Trend of downstream products

It can be seen from the phthalic anhydride price trend chart that phthalic anhydride failed to continue the upward trend in November in December, and the price of phthalic anhydride fell in December with a drop of 11.54%. In general, the passion of phthalic anhydride market in December was no longer enthusiastic, the downstream demand of o-benzene weakened, the market of o-benzene weakened, and the negative effects increased.

Future forecast

According to Bai Jiaxin, an o-xylene data analyst from business agency, in December, the mixed xylene price of o-benzene raw material became stable, and the cost of o-benzene in the future market became stable, and the driving force of o-benzene’s rise weakened; in December, the price of phthalic anhydride fell, the passion of o-benzene Market ceased, the demand for o-benzene decreased, the good and bad of o-benzene weakened. Generally speaking, in December, the passion of o-benzene industrial chain was no longer enthusiastic, mixed xylene prices tended to stabilize, phthalic anhydride prices fell, o-benzene rising momentum weakened, downward pressure increased, it is expected that the future market of o-benzene prices will stabilize and the downward pressure will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the mainstream price of styrene in China fell sharply this week. On Monday (December 7), the price of sample enterprises of business agency was 8066.67 yuan / ton, while on Friday (December 11), the price of sample enterprises was 7550.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 6.40%. The price was 0.44% higher than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of styrene continued to fall this week. East China styrene closed at 7900-8100 yuan / ton on December 07, and 7550 yuan / ton on December 11, down 400 yuan / ton. The above is Zhangjiagang’s export price. South China styrene closed at 8400-8500 yuan / ton on December 07, and 8100 yuan / ton on December 11, down 300 yuan / ton, which was the delivery price of the above factories.

In terms of raw materials, the international oil price shows a dynamic trend of narrow wave recently. Pure benzene rose and then fell back, ethylene slowly fell and then rebounded. In general, the price of ethylene and pure benzene is weak, and the cost support of styrene is insufficient. As of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ethylene price was 954.25 yuan / ton, up 11.75 yuan / ton or 1.25% from 942.50 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). Ethylene downstream styrene, ethylene oxide, ethylene glycol, etc. due to cost and shipping pressure, the operating rate decreased, and the demand for raw materials procurement decreased. At the same time, the recent import of ethylene ships to the port, the supply increased significantly. The supply and demand side lacks the support of favorable factors, and the market quotation falls.

As for pure benzene, the mainstream quotation as of Friday (December 11) was 4556.00 yuan / ton, up 20 yuan / ton or 0.44% from 4536.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene in East China was driven up by the continuous rise of styrene in the external market. At the end of the week, with the weakening of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene continued to fall. Some low-cost goods sources in the early stage began to profit taking, and the market selling increased, resulting in lower prices.

In terms of inventory, total inventory in East China this week was 69600 tons, down 2.66% from 71500 tons last week. There is less styrene in Hong Kong this week, and the rate of wharf going to storage has been greatly reduced. Arrival less than delivery, overall, port inventory decline. In terms of domestic styrene, the domestic styrene operating rate decreased slightly this week, with the average operating rate of 80.98% last week and 78.2% of this week, with a decrease of 2.78%. Under the pressure of cost and shipment, the total operating rate of domestic styrene production enterprises decreased. On the whole, enterprise inventory and social inventory are still in the middle and low level, and continue to be less in a short time.

On the downstream side, the overall downstream price of styrene fell this week. Although the production and sales remained profitable, some downstream profits shrank, and the traditional off-season terminal demand shrank, and some downstream accumulated stocks. In the PS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory price of PS in East China was 10133.33 yuan / ton, down 400 yuan / ton or 3.80% from 10533.33 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). The average operating rate of domestic PS this week was 65.85%, slightly lower than that of 67.15% last week. Affected by the continuous weakening of styrene price, the bearish mentality of PS market appears, the atmosphere of market price reduction and shipment is strong, and the actual transaction is weak.

In the EPS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory price of EPS in East China was 9700.00 yuan / ton, down 300 yuan / ton or 3.00% compared with 10000.00 yuan on Monday (December 07). The continuous fall of styrene price led to the downward trend of EPS market price, and the overall trading performance of the market was poor.

In the ABS market, as of Friday (December 11), the mainstream ex factory quotation of ABS in Zhejiang was 16900.00 yuan / ton, down 1450 yuan / ton or 7.90% from 18350.00 yuan / ton on Monday (December 07). This week, the price of ABS fell sharply due to the fall of styrene price and the decrease of terminal demand. ABS supply is good this week, no maintenance manufacturers, basically maintain full load operation, operating rate is the same as last week.

3、 Future prospects

The crude oil fluctuates in a narrow range, the prices of ethylene and pure benzene at the raw material end are weak, and the cost support of styrene is insufficient. The situation of styrene supply side is generally acceptable, but the downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream downstream is mainly supported by rigid demand, with insufficient gas purchase. It is expected that styrene will be dominated by weak finishing next week, with the price range of 7400-7800 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China at the beginning of this week was 1800 yuan / ton, while that at the end of this week was 1900 yuan / ton, up 5.56%.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 2100-2200 yuan / T, which was flat compared with last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 2200 yuan / T, 300 yuan / T higher than last week; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 2180 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1950 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid and 810 yuan / T of dilute nitric acid, The price of concentrated nitric acid was the same as last week. The delivery of nitric acid Market slowed down compared with the previous period, and most manufacturers’ quotations remained stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable this week for the upstream liquid ammonia; 1.52% for aniline in the downstream; and 1.77% for the downstream TDI.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid Market Trading slows down, nitric acid analysts in the business community predict that the price of nitric acid will be mainly stable.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate was quoted at 4125.00 yuan / ton this week and 4150.00 yuan / ton this week, up 0.61%. The current price is up 1.22% month on month, and the current price is down 4.60% year on year.

This week, the domestic market of potassium nitrate is rising, the supply is tight, and the quantity of goods delivered from different regions is not large. The operating rate of downstream compound fertilizer plants is relatively high, but the willingness to purchase is not big, and the price of potassium nitrate is slightly higher. According to the statistics of the business agency, this week’s domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 3900-4400 yuan / ton (the quotation is for reference only), and the quotations are different according to different purchasing conditions.

On December 4, the potassium chloride equipment of Qinghai Salt Lake Potash Fertilizer Co., Ltd. operated normally. The ex factory quotation is 2020 yuan / ton, and the quotation is up by 70 yuan / ton. The actual transaction price is mainly negotiated. Anhui Badou Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 2300 yuan / T potassium chloride, which was stable temporarily. The actual transaction price was mainly negotiated. Potassium chloride market continued to rise, can give potassium nitrate a certain cost support.

In the near future, the domestic price of potassium chloride is on the upward trend, which supports the cost of potassium nitrate. It is expected that the market of potassium nitrate will rise slightly in the short term, but the long-term market still needs to wait and see. (the above prices are provided by major potassium nitrate manufacturers all over the country and analyzed by potassium carbonate analysts of business club for reference only. Please contact relevant manufacturers for more price details.).

According to the data from the large list of business associations, in November, the domestic adipic acid market continued its upward trend in October. According to the data monitored by the business agency, adipic acid in East China increased by 18% in the whole month, mainly due to the driving of upstream costs, the new record of pure benzene price, and the recovery of downstream PA66 market. According to the monitoring of business agency, the current market quotation range of adipic acid is 8000-8500 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of market supply, the operating rate of adipic acid manufacturers remained stable in November, about 80% or more. The market supply of adipic acid was relatively sufficient, and the manufacturers’ inventory pressure was large. Dealers usually take the goods normally, the manufacturer’s inventory pressure is not big, and the inventory is gradually transferred to the distribution link. Therefore, the dealers are forced by the inventory pressure in the late November, and the quotation is slightly loose.

Market trend of pure benzene

In terms of cost, the upstream crude oil price maintained an upward pattern. The WTI price rose to around us $45, which supported the downstream petrochemical industry’s price to stabilize and rise. In particular, pure benzene continued to rise sharply in November. According to the business agency’s monitoring, the price of pure benzene rose by 16% in November (as shown in the figure above). The pressure of cost forced the price of adipic acid to rise. The price of pure benzene was adjusted back at the end of the month or the later price of adipic acid There will also be callback pressure.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, the terminal performance is rigid and stable. In the late stage of the epidemic, although the chemical industry rebounded steadily, the operating rate of downstream factories increased slightly. In addition, the rigid consumption of downstream polyurethane was stable, and the market of PA66 also rose sharply. Up to now, the price of PA66 has increased by 31% in November, as shown in the figure above. However, the price rise of PA66 slows down at the end of the month, and it is expected that the upward space will be limited in the later period.

In the later stage, it seems that adipic acid has been soaring for two consecutive months, mainly driven by the upstream and downstream. The market is mainly stabilized at the end of the month, mainly because the market mainly returns to the fundamentals. However, as winter approaches, the downstream operating rate may decline, and the cost of pure benzene also shows signs of decline. The downstream gradually enters the off-season, and it is expected that adipic acid will stabilize in the near future Exclude the possibility of falling back.

Trade name: fuel oil 180CST

The latest price is RMB 3711-30-2020

Analysis points: on November 30, the price of fuel oil was 3737.50 yuan / ton, and the market was stable. According to the recent crude oil price, oil cost is supported by $53.45/barrel. On the other hand, in the short term, the terminal demand is still low, and the supply ship market has great resistance. It is understood that as of November 25, Singapore’s residual fuel oil inventory, including fuel oil and low sulfur waxy residual oil, increased by 2036000 barrels to 24.038 million barrels, light distillate stocks including naphtha, gasoline and reformate oil increased by 112000 barrels to 12.546 million barrels, and medium distillate stocks decreased by 703000 barrels to 15.39 million barrels.

Aftermarket forecast: the fuel market is expected to remain stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid dropped slightly in November. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8360 yuan / ton, down 0.48% compared with 8400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, and 13.81% lower than that at the beginning of the month.

In August, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price trend continued to decline slightly. Up to now, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 7600-8400 yuan / ton. The domestic hydrofluoric acid demand is general, and the hydrofluoric acid market price is mainly stable. The domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid on-site device operates stably, the manufacturers report that the recent delivery situation is not good, and the price in the field is slightly lower. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 7600-8200 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 7600-8500 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend is mainly volatile, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, and some manufacturers report that the recent domestic hydrofluoric acid transaction situation is poor, and the hydrofluoric acid trading market is weak.

The market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite decreased slightly in November. As of the end of the month, the domestic fluorite price was 2616.67 yuan / ton, and the price dropped slightly by 0.21% in November. The domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, the downstream market was not improved, and the trend of fluorite price declined slightly. As of the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2400-2600 yuan / ton. The fluctuation of fluorite price was a negative factor in hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price decreased slightly.

In November, the market trend of domestic refrigerants dropped slightly, the demand of domestic refrigerant industry did not significantly improve, the start-up of refrigerant industry remained low, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid decreased slightly. The foreign economic development is general, but the refrigerant terminal export has not changed much. However, the domestic air conditioning industry starts at a low level, and the after-sales demand for maintenance is weak. On the whole, the foreign demand has not improved significantly. At present, the load of refrigerant R22 manufacturers is not high, the inventory is in a reasonable range, and the market price drops slightly. However, the downstream receiving capacity is limited, and there is a lot of wait-and-see mood. The actual transaction center of gravity is shifted downward. Some traders are looking for positive shipment, and the quotation is slightly lower than the manufacturer’s ex factory price. There is a phenomenon of cost inversion. The mainstream of on-site negotiation is 12500-14500 yuan / ton. The trend of domestic R134a market has fallen down, but the automobile market industry has been in a downturn, the demand is weak, the market trading center is low, and the transaction atmosphere is light. With sufficient supply of goods in the market and the impact of new production capacity entering the market, the competition is fierce, the supply side gradually forms a negative situation, the price fluctuates at a low level, the downstream demand is not improved, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid falls slightly.

On the whole, hydrofluoric acid market is mainly volatile, but the upstream raw material fluorite market has not changed much, and the demand of downstream refrigerant industry has not improved significantly. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid from business club, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may remain low.

In November, the international oil price continued to push up, and it has been rising for four consecutive weeks. According to the monitoring of the business agency, as of November 24, the growth rate of American oil was 24.16%, and that of Brent crude oil was 24.88%. At present, the oil price has reached the highest point in recent eight months.

On the one hand, the good news of the new crown vaccine has boosted the demand expectation; on the other hand, according to the news released from the market, OPEC + is expected to further maintain the current super scale production reduction, which is good for the supply expectation.

On November 24, the U.S. WTI crude oil futures market prices rose sharply, with the settlement price of main contracts at $44.91/barrel, up $1.85 or 4.29%. Crude oil futures prices, or Brent, rose sharply at US $72.1/barrel. WTI rose by more than 4%, reaching the highest level since March, mainly boosted by the good news of vaccines and the impact of the beginning of power transfer by US President Biden.

Under the background that the epidemic situation has not been controlled, especially in Europe and the United States, the number of new cases remains high. The market is particularly looking forward to the success of the vaccine, and vaccine breakthrough has stimulated the nerve of market demand. Judging from the recent positive news of vaccines: on November 9, Pfizer announced that the effectiveness of the research and development vaccine was more than 90%; on the 18th, the company said that its effectiveness was more than 95%. The novel coronavirus pneumonia vaccine released by Moderna, a US biotechnology company, reported that its effective rate reached 94.5%. On the 16 day, third vaccines appeared on the 24 day. British Pharmaceutical Company AstraZeneca said Monday that its new crown vaccine was effective in the key tests, and it was expected to rise to 90%. This is the third new weapon for the world to fight against the new coronavirus.

OPEC + has also been releasing positive signals on production reduction recently. On November 16, OPEC + held a meeting of the Joint Technical Committee and the Joint Ministerial Supervision Committee. After discussing whether to postpone the production increase plan in January, the OPEC + ministerial joint monitoring committee said to the outside world that it should be vigilant and respond to the demand of the oil market. Although the current scale of production reduction has not been clearly maintained, the market generally has expectations. However, the implementation rate of production reduction in October dropped from 101% in September to 96%. The market will wait for the outcome of the OPEC + ministerial meeting on November 30.

Novel coronavirus pneumonia is still a factor that puzzles the oil market. Worldometer website real-time statistics show that around November 25th, around 6:30 Beijing time, 60043895 cases of new crown pneumonia were diagnosed globally, 1413229 cases were cumulative deaths, and 117 cases were confirmed by more than 10000 cases. In Europe, France will lift the nationwide “city closure” implemented at the end of last month in three stages, and may be affected by restrictive measures in the short term. Various signs show that the current fuel demand is still not optimistic. Standard Chartered Bank expects that the global oil demand in 2020 will decline by 9.68 million barrels / day compared with that in 2019. Demand in Asia is stable, especially in China, where refining capacity has recovered to pre epidemic levels.

In addition, crude oil inventory data showed a negative performance. On November 24, the US Petroleum Institute (API) released a report on Tuesday showing that US crude oil and gasoline inventories increased in the latest week, while distillate oil inventories fell. U.S. crude oil inventories rose 3.8 million barrels in the week ended November 20, with analysts expecting an increase of 127000 tons, according to the report. U.S. gasoline inventories rose by 1.3 million barrels, after analysts had expected an increase of 614000 barrels. Both crude oil and gasoline inventories have increased more than expected, indicating that refinery operating rates are declining and US crude oil demand is still weak.

According to the business agency, with the release of good news on vaccines and the transfer of power by the president of the United States, more oil prices may return to the supply and demand side. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the results of the OPEC + 30 meeting. On the other hand, Libya’s increase in production has also brought variables to the supply, and the superimposed epidemic situation has not improved. Therefore, it can be said that there are many obstacles to the upward oil price. The market is still volatile in the near future, which may be stimulated by more news and increase the amplitude.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market continued to rise this week, with the average price of 3630 yuan / ton as of Friday, up 2.48% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

Boosted by the rise of international crude oil prices, xylene prices continued to rise this week. The listed price of xylene in Sinopec’s enterprises generally rose by 50-150 yuan / ton this week. Port inventory is high. At present, the port inventory in East China is about 131000 tons, down 4000 tons compared with last week, and the pressure to go to the warehouse is not reduced. Market oversupply, downstream Px, gasoline blending demand is general. At present, the price is about 3630 yuan / ton in East China. The future market will focus on the outcome of the US election, the progress of the US economic stimulus plan, the fluctuation of the US dollar index and the stock market, the geographical situation in the Middle East and the impact of OPEC + on crude oil supply, the impact of the continuous deterioration of overseas epidemic situation on the demand for crude oil, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, the global economic recovery, and the European and American economic recovery relief plan Progress.

Upstream, crude oil, supported by good vaccine news and OPEC’s hope of delaying production increase, this week’s international crude oil prices rose. However, due to the failure of US fiscal stimulus negotiations, the global epidemic is still serious, and oil prices are still facing downward risks. As of Friday, spot Brent rose $1.65/barrel to close at $43.435/barrel, up 3.95% from last week. At present, the main uncertain factors in the market come from the new crown epidemic in Europe and the United States and the uncertainty of the US presidential election. The final direction of crude oil will not take further action until the demand side is better and the US election is clear. In the medium term, oil prices mainly depend on the recovery of demand side and the direction of macro market.

The price of Sinopec / CFR is about US $4300 / FOB in the domestic and foreign markets. PX market is expected to stabilize in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the market price continued to rebound this week. The domestic PTA spot market price was about 3300 yuan / ton, and the external price was about 435 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec quoted 4400 yuan / ton of o-benzene, and the external price of o-benzene was about 580 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 620 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society think: first look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling and EIA, API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the worsening global epidemic situation on crude oil demand, the progress of industrial chain recovery, the economic and trade situation of Europe and the United States and the progress of economic recovery and rescue plan. Third, look at the linkage between the US dollar index and the stock market, the progress in the research and development of the new crown vaccine, and the geopolitical situation in the Middle East and China and the United States. Next week, we will focus on the US general election, the progress of a new round of US stimulus measures, and the impact of dollar index and stock market volatility on the trend of crude oil. Overall, xylene in the domestic market is expected to fluctuate slightly next week.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, affected by the tight spot supply of acetic acid, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise. As of November 20, the average price of acetic acid in East China was about 3166 yuan / ton, up 19.8% compared with the beginning of the month and 21.95% higher than the same period of last month. At present, there are 3050-3200 yuan / ton in Shandong, 3250-3340 yuan / ton in Jiangsu, 3300-3400 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, 3000-3100 yuan / ton in Henan, 3050 yuan / ton in Hebei, 2600 yuan / ton in Northwest China and 3250-3350 yuan / ton in South China.

Unit capacity (10000 t / a) unit output (T / D)

Yankuang Guotai 110.3000

Hualu Hengsheng 50.1500

Yangtze BP 50 1300

Jiangsu Sopu 120.3000

Celanese 1200 2500

Jiantao, Hebei, 50.1400

Tianjin Bohua 35 parking

Henan Shunda 40.1400

Henan Longyu 50.1500

Henan Yima 25 parking

Shaanxi Yanchang parking 1300

Shanghai Huayi 70.1800

Anhui Huayi 50.1300

Dalian Hengli 35.1300

Affected by the double advantages of domestic demand and export, the domestic acetic acid market continued to rise this week. During the week, there were many enterprises in the northern region for parking and maintenance, including Tianjin Bohua 350000 T / a unit for 11.18 shutdown and maintenance for about 1 week, Shaanxi extended 450000 T / a device for 11.19 shutdown and maintenance for about 2 days. The shortage of spot supply in the market intensified, and the inventory in the industry was generally low The cumulative increase of the district is about 150-200 yuan / ton, and some enterprises have closed the offer.

The methanol market is strong and upward. Affected by the weather, some parts of the plant are shut down for maintenance, and the inventory of production enterprises is not high, and the attitude of the industry is mostly optimistic. At present, the profits of traders are fair, and the methanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic methanol market will fluctuate in the short term. Downstream, affected by the upward support of raw materials, the acetate market continued to rise in the week. Due to the overall trend of oversupply in the industry, some enterprises reduced the negative operation, which eased the situation to a certain extent.

Recently, the supply of international acetic acid market is tight, and the price of acetic acid in various regions has been running steadily. At present, the acetic acid Market in Asia is about 420-450 US dollars / ton; the European market is about 560 euro / ton; the North American market is about 490 US dollars / ton.

The acetic acid analysts of the business club believe that the current domestic and foreign demand is good, the acetic acid price support is good, enterprises order more goods, less spot, downstream and traders buy up enthusiasm, it is expected that the acetic acid market will run stably in a short time.