1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week is 1500 yuan / ton, and the quotation is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

Anhui Jinhe quoted 1300-1350 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1750 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1300 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid, which was 30 yuan / ton lower than last week; Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1580 yuan / ton of concentrated nitric acid and 810 yuan / ton of dilute nitric acid Compared with last week, the supply pressure of nitric acid market was high, the market transaction was not good, and the quotation of some manufacturers declined.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic liquid ammonia market remained stable in most regions this week. Shandong and Hebei regions also ended the rebound and the price was mainly stabilized. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the increase of liquid ammonia was 0.32% in the week of the 24th, and the mainstream market quotation was 2850-3050 yuan / T; the downstream aniline was stable this week, with an average price of 4350 yuan / ton, and TDI’s quotation was stable this week, The average price is 14333 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid market transaction light, business agency nitric acid analysts predict that the price of nitric acid will fall.

Trade name: urea

Latest price (August 26): 1693.33 yuan / ton

On August 26, the factory price of urea in Shandong decreased, which was 26.67 yuan / ton or 1.55% lower than that on August 24. The upstream liquid ammonia has risen slightly in recent years, and the cost support is general. However, the demand for downstream agriculture is light, the starting load of compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is not high, the market trading atmosphere is weakened, and the middlemen are cautious in receiving goods.

It is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly in the future, and the average price quoted by manufacturers will be about 1680 yuan / ton.

Trade name: br 9000

Latest price (August 19): 8220 yuan / ton

Analysis points: the domestic market price of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber was 8220 yuan / ton, up 0.24% over the previous day. The rising price of raw material butadiene drives the downstream synthetic rubber to follow up. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the current butadiene price is around 5387 yuan / ton.

Aftermarket forecast: the price of raw material butadiene is high, and under the pressure of cost, it is expected that the market of cis-1,4-polybutadiene rubber will continue to rise in the future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the factory price of octanol in Shandong decreased slightly. This week, the average price of octanol mainstream factory quotation in Shandong decreased from 7050.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7000.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.71%, and a year-on-year decrease of 4.11%. Overall, octanol market fell slightly this week, with the octanol commodity index of 51.47 on August 21.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the main octanol manufacturer’s ex factory quotation in Shandong Province fell this week: Jianlan Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 7000 yuan / ton of octanol at the end of this week, 100 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; lihuayi’s offer of octanol was 6950 yuan / ton at the end of this week, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng’s offer of octanol was 7100 yuan / ton this weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream material market at the end of last year, the price of propylene increased by RMB 6955.0% to RMB 697.0%. Upstream raw material market prices rose, affected by the supply and demand side, had a positive impact on the price of octanol.

Octanol downstream market, DOP factory price rose slightly this week. DOP price rose from 6966.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 7000 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with an increase of 0.48% and a decrease of 3.23% compared with the same period last year. Although the downstream DOP price has slightly increased, the downstream customers are generally enthusiastic about octanol purchasing, and the demand for octanol is general. The low price consolidation of DOP has a negative impact on the market of octanol. After the market operators more watch the trend of DOP.

3、 Future forecast

In late August, the market trend of octanol in Shandong Province was mainly fluctuating. The upstream propylene price fell, the cost support was weak, the downstream DOP market was low consolidation, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was general. Octanol analysts believe that: in late August, under the influence of supply and demand, raw materials and other aspects, the octanol market in Shandong may fluctuate and fall slightly.

According to statistics, the trend of domestic p-xylene ex factory price was temporarily stable this week, with an average price of 4800 yuan / ton at the weekend, which was temporarily stable compared with the price of 4600 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year decrease of 34.29%.

The domestic PX operating rate is about 60%. The operation of Hongrun 600000 ton new unit is stable, Huizhou refining and chemical plant is stable, fuhaichuang plant is on the first line, Pengzhou petrochemical plant is running stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit is running normally, Jinling Petrochemical plant is running smoothly, Qingdao Lidong unit is operating at full load, Qilu Petrochemical plant is running stably The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and Hainan refining and Chemical Co., Ltd. has started a production line. Hengli petrochemical plant is in normal operation, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is about 70%, and the supply of PX goods is normal in Asia. This week, the price trend of PX external market is mainly volatile. As of the end of the week, the closing prices of PX market in Asia are 532-534 USD / T FOB Korea and 550-552 USD / T CFR China. This week, the external price of PX has not changed much. More than 40% of domestic products need to be imported, and the closing price of PX external market is shocked Swing to the domestic market to bring a certain support impact, domestic PX market price trend temporarily stable.

This week, the US WTI crude oil futures market price mainly fluctuated. As of the 20th, the settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was at US $42.82/barrel, while that of the Brent crude oil futures market was US $44.90/barrel. The main reason for this was that OPEC + oil producing countries needed to solve over 2 million barrels / day of excess supply, and the number of new US jobless claims increased unexpectedly, It shows that the process of economic recovery is slow, crude oil price trend is volatile, and domestic p-xylene market price trend is temporarily stable.

The price trend of downstream PTA market declined this week. As of the end of the week, the PTA Market in East China had been negotiated at 3500-3600 yuan. Recently, the starting load of PTA industry was 87%. During the week, PTA parking and maintenance devices entered the restart stage, and there was a small increase in the supply side. Although the terminal orders recovered, the market’s expectation for foreign trade weakened and the support from the demand side was insufficient. In addition, the market still has some concerns about crude oil demand, so it shows a weak downward trend. In addition, the inventory is still at a high level. As the current social inventory is still at nearly 4 million tons, and the continuous restart of the units leads to the limited storage duration, PTA social inventory pressure is still large, and the PX price trend is stable.

On the whole, the demand of textile industry has not improved significantly, the order performance is not stable, and the terminal demand is poor. For upstream Px, on-demand procurement is the main factor, and the price trend of PX market is stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business agency, thinks that the recent trend of crude oil price is volatile, but the operating rate of downstream textile enterprises is general, PTA market price is falling, and domestic PX market supply is normal. It is expected that PX market price will maintain about 4600 yuan / ton next week.

In the middle of August, propane continued to rise, and the range was narrower than that in the first ten days. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average price of propane market was 3435.00 yuan / ton on August 10, and 3480.00 yuan / ton on August 18, with an increase of 1.31% during the period. The overall price rose steadily, rising by 3.88% compared with August 1.

Regional standard enterprises rose and fell from August 10 to August 18

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 HSBC Petrochemical 3470 yuan / ton 3520 yuan / ton + 50

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Hualian Petrochemical 3370 yuan / T, 3450 yuan / T + 80

Shandong propane,% (V / V) no less than: 95 Hengyuan Petrochemical Co., Ltd/

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Haiyou petrochemical 3455 yuan / ton 3455 yuan / ton 0

Shandong propane,% (V / V) not less than: 95 Binzhou Dayou 3350 yuan / ton 3450 yuan / ton + 100 yuan

In the middle of August, the direction of propane price increase did not change, and continued to push up slightly. In the early stage, the international oil price rose slightly, and the US crude oil inventory decreased, which brought periodic support to the market. The strong price of LPG in civil market is also good for the market. Domestic propane production is still in a state of decline. Some refineries shut down for maintenance, market supply is reduced, and terminal demand is stable. Low supply is also one of the main reasons for propane upward. Downstream of the market bullish mentality is strong, one after another into the market replenishment, high enthusiasm. Upstream shipment is smooth, refinery inventory is mostly maintained at a low level, the mentality is relatively strong, and a small push up is given priority to. However, the current off-season factors still exist, and the terminal demand needs to be improved, which brings a certain constraint on the upward road of propane, and the market growth is limited.

At present, there are some differences among different regions of the domestic propane Market. Most of the northern market is strong and rising, while the southern market is more resistant to rising, with a downward trend and a relatively low price. As of August 18, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Regional specification August 18

Propane in East China,% (V / V) not less than: 953050-3350 yuan / ton

Propane in North China,% (V / V) not less than: 953400-3550 yuan / ton

Propane in Shandong area,% (V / V) not less than: 95 3350-3520 yuan / ton

Propane in South China,% (V / V) not less than: 953050-3100 yuan / ton

Propane in Central China,% (V / V) not less than: 953050-3460 yuan / ton

Propane in Northeast China,% (V / V) not less than: 953530-3800 yuan/

During the period of the downstream propylene market, it was stable and fell, which brought certain negative effects to the market. At present, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is small, the crude oil price is volatile, the downstream market is mostly negative or not affected, and the overall market procurement is mainly on demand. In the early stage, the propylene market price has broken through the upper limit of the range, and the downstream support is obviously insufficient, so it is expected that the propylene price will decline.

The current rise in international crude oil, the main players in the upstream LPG civil market, and the expected rise of CP in September have all brought support to the market. But at present, the enthusiasm of downstream enterprises to enter the market has been reduced, and the atmosphere for manufacturers to ship goods is general. And affected by seasonal factors, terminal demand still needs to be improved, negative factors still exist, it is expected that the price or high consolidation in the near future.

International crude oil prices continue to fluctuate at a high level. OPEC and IEA monthly reports have been released one after another. The data performance is average, and the improvement of international oil price is limited. Refined oil market prices fluctuated in a narrow range. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on August 14 was 5528 yuan / ton, up 0.24% from the beginning of the week; on August 14, the price of diesel oil was 4892 yuan / ton, up 0.15% from the beginning of the week.

OPEC countries Saudi Arabia and other oil producing countries have verbally promised to strictly implement production reduction; U.S. crude oil inventories continue to decline; however, OPEC and IEA monthly reports have been released this week, and the data performance is average. International oil prices soared and fell.

In terms of gasoline, the domestic rainy weather increased this week, and the demand for gasoline terminal remained rigid. In addition, the lack of action on international oil prices led to low market purchasing enthusiasm, and low-cost replenishment was the main trend in the downstream. In terms of diesel, the diesel terminal demand in some southern regions is recovering. In addition, the domestic hot weather is reduced, which is conducive to domestic mining and outdoor construction, and the diesel market has rigid demand support. However, on the whole, the international oil price is insufficient, the market demand is mainly based on rigid demand, the market lacks substantial positive stimulation, and the domestic oil product market price is stable.

In mid August, the start-up load of the refinery dropped slightly by 2%. At present, the average start-up load of atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is about 73%. The start-up of the unit is still at a relatively high level, and the impact of the refined oil supply side is not significant.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business club, believes that: the international crude oil prices continue to maintain a choppy upward trend; in addition to the arrival of the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season, the refined oil prices are expected to continue to rise.

Upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid prices went down, while aluminum fluoride prices remained stable. According to business agency data, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride on August 14 was 8833 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the beginning of the week.

The domestic fluorite market price has continued to fall. Recently, some manufacturers have reported that the sales situation is not good, the downstream demand has not improved, and the fluorite price has dropped slightly. Domestic fluorite manufacturers have been operating stably, the on-site mines and flotation devices have been operating normally, and the fluorite in the yard is not well stocked, and the market price of fluorite is slightly lower. In recent years, the downstream hydrofluoric acid market price has declined, and the terminal downstream on-demand procurement is dominated, and the purchasing sentiment is not strong. Impact on the downstream aluminum fluoride Market and weaken the cost support.

At present, most of the enterprises are facing losses. Some factories are operating at low load, and the quotation of the owner is firm. At present, the overall performance of the aluminum fluoride market is relatively stable, and the aluminum fluoride manufacturers have strong willingness to sell.

The aluminum fluoride industry analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that: the price of fluorite in the upstream is loose, but the aluminum fluoride manufacturers have the intention to maintain the price of aluminum fluoride, and it is expected that the price of aluminum fluoride will continue to maintain stable operation.

1、 Price trend

On August 14, the average ex factory price of oil to ethylene glycol in North China was 3700 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week, according to business agency data.

On August 13, the market price of ethylene glycol in East China was 3710 yuan / ton, down 15 yuan / ton or 0.40% compared with the same period last week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

As of August 13, the total ethylene glycol inventory in the main ports of East China was 1.473 million tons, an increase of 37300 tons or 2.72% compared with last Thursday, and a decrease of 7700 tons or 0.54% compared with Monday.

In terms of shipment, the average daily shipment volume of Zhangjiagang and Taicang increased significantly this week, with the average daily shipment volume of Zhangjiagang reaching 6400 tons and Taicang daily average shipping volume of 8200 tons.

At present, the operating rate of ethylene glycol is about 48%, and that of polyester is about 88%, which is the same as last week.

In terms of units, the ethylene glycol unit of Dushanzi Petrochemical Company is in shutdown, and the overhaul time is expected to be one month; the ethylene glycol unit of Tongliao Jinmei has been restarted recently; and the overhaul of ethylene glycol unit of Hengli Petrochemical Company is delayed.

3、 Analysis and prediction

Due to the arrival of ships delayed by the typhoon, inventories rose again at the beginning of this week, and the price of ethylene glycol fell for a time. However, with the rise of downstream loom operating rate, shipment gradually smooth, inventory appeared a small decline, the price also followed. Recently, the oil price has been relatively stable, and the cost side has been supported, which has greatly enhanced the market confidence. The global anti epidemic situation has improved, and the prospect of textile export is in sight. If there is no major change, the price of ethylene glycol is expected to fluctuate upward.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week is 1533 yuan / ton, and the quotation is stable temporarily.

2、 Market analysis

The price of concentrated nitric acid was stable. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 1400 yuan / ton, which was the same as last time; Anhui Jinhe offered 1400-1450 yuan / ton, which was the same as last week; Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. offered 1750 yuan / T, which was flat compared with the last time; Huainan Aodeli chemical products Sales Co., Ltd. quoted 1480 yuan / T of concentrated nitric acid, which was flat compared with the last time; Wenshui County synthesis Co., Ltd For Chemical Co., Ltd., the ex factory price of concentrated nitric acid is 1580 yuan / T, which is the same as last time; the market demand of nitric acid is stable, and the quotation of manufacturers is basically stable.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the upstream liquid ammonia was quoted at 3000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2983 yuan / ton at the weekend, down 0.56%, which depressed the price of nitric acid. The average price of aniline in the downstream this week was 4316 yuan / ton, which was stable.

3、 Future forecast

The upstream raw material liquid ammonia price is weak, and the nitric acid analysts of the business community predict that the price of nitric acid may decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average ex factory price of ammonium sulfate in China on August 3 was 563 yuan / ton, and that on August 7 was 576 yuan / ton. The price rose by 2.37% this week.

On August 7, the commodity index of ammonium sulfate was 48.26, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 54.59% from the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and increased by 31.68% from the lowest point of 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Tight supply, domestic ammonium sulfate prices rose this week. The main factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 550-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan is 530-580 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 470-600 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 500-600 yuan / ton, that in East China is 550-650 yuan / ton, that in North China is 500-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 500-650 yuan / ton The main ex factory quotation of ammonium sulfate is 520-630 yuan / T.

This week, the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises began to produce fertilizer in autumn, and the market was stable temporarily. The demand for ammonium sulfate in raw material procurement is less, mainly urea and ammonium chloride, and the market fluctuation is small.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency ammonium sulfate analysts believe that the current coking grade ammonium sulfate market demand is weak, tight supply. Ammonium sulphate is mainly exported and its price is firm. It is expected that ammonium sulfate will fluctuate slightly in the short term.

Trade name: calcium carbide

Latest price (August 5): 2630.00 yuan / ton

On August 5, the ex factory quotation of calcium carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable, which was the same as that on August 3. Low price, the impact of low price on the market. The downstream PVC prices have risen slightly recently, and the downstream customers have a strong demand for calcium carbide.

In the near future, the factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China will rise slightly: the manufacturer’s quotation is about 2650 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of domestic soda ash has increased this week. The average market price in East China at the beginning of the week was about 1266.67 yuan / ton, while that at the weekend was 1300 yuan / ton. The price increased by 2.63% and decreased by 21.69% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of light soda ash on July 30 was 66.67, up 1.71 points compared with yesterday, 43.43% lower than 117.86 points (2017-11-21), and 5.57% higher than the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18, 2015. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, at present, the soda ash market is actively moving goods this week, cleaning up inventory, and the price of soda ash has rebounded, but the overall market price is still relatively large, stable and small moving. In North China, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1250-1350 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda is 1350-1450 yuan / ton; the light and stable price of soda ash in East China is 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda is 1200-1350 yuan / ton; in Central China, the market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and that of heavy soda ash is 1200-1350 yuan / ton The current mainstream market price is about 1100-1200 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1200-1300 yuan / ton. According to the data survey, the overall operating rate of soda ash is about 78%, and the operating rate has little change.

Raw materials: the national crude salt market fluctuates in a narrow range, and the market transaction performance is stable. The main production areas of Haiyan kept sufficient supply, the purchasing atmosphere of the two alkali industries was general, the sales performance of salt enterprises was weak, the cost pressure supported, and the market kept a low volume. The supply and demand of the main production areas of well and mineral salt is weak and stable, the transaction continues to be flat, and the mineral salt supply performance is relatively large. In addition, the sea salt market continues to be low, and the downstream purchase transaction is not high as a whole.

Demand: float glass trading is good this week. The overall price in North China is rising, and the downstream receiving enthusiasm is good. Under the stimulation of price rise in Shahe market, traders take delivery actively; in Central China, the transaction is good, and affected by the water level of the Yangtze River, the amount of outward shipment is still not large; at present, the rainfall time in East China is over, the number of orders delivered by glass processing enterprises to the real estate industry has increased, and the speed of purchasing glass original sheet is not high Less. The production and sales rate of production enterprises has also increased to a certain extent recently, effectively reducing the inventory in the early stage; the demand of South China market is good, and the supply of some enterprises is slightly reduced due to hot repair, so the overall production and sales rate of production enterprises is higher, and the price is up.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 29th week (7.20-7.24) of 2020, there are 1 kind of commodity rising and 2 kinds of falling commodity in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry, and 2 kinds of commodity with rise and fall to 0. The main commodities that rose were calcium carbide (5.49%); the main commodities that fell were PVC (- 0.77%) and light soda ash (- 0.52%). This week, the average rise and fall was 0.84%.

3、 Future forecast

Business agency analysts believe that: at this stage, the domestic soda market downstream transaction is still weak, enterprises mainly discuss shipment. At present, soda ash inventory is still large, glass inventory is still at a high level, downstream procurement is mainly on-demand procurement, traders are more wait-and-see attitude, still hold a wait-and-see state for soda ash. It is predicted that the domestic soda ash market in the short-term will still be sorted out with small fluctuations.

1、 Price trend

In July 2020, the coke market continued to decline. The mainstream price of Shanxi market was 1813.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 1660 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly decrease of 8.46%.

On July 30, the coke commodity index was 87.14, flat with yesterday, 35.47% lower than 135.04 (September 13, 2018), and 151.49% higher than the lowest point of 34.65 on March 3, 2016. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Summary of domestic coke market price (unit: yuan / ton)

Prices of regional specifications on July 31 were up and down compared with the same period of last month

Secondary metallurgical coke 1880-130 in Shanghai

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1940-130

Grade II metallurgical coke 1850-130 in Xuzhou area

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1910-130

Grade II metallurgical coke 1790 – 150 in Weifang Area

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1850-150

Grade II metallurgical coke 1690-150 in Taiyuan Area

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1740-150

Secondary metallurgical coke 1650 – 150 in Jinzhong Area

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1710 – 150

Secondary metallurgical coke 1780-150 in Tangshan area

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1830-150

Grade II metallurgical coke 1710-150 in Shenyang area

Quasi first grade metallurgical coke 1770-150

This month, the coke market went up and down for three times on the 8th, 15th and 19th, with a cumulative reduction of 150 yuan / ton. The steel industry started to maintain a high level in this month, and the demand for coke was good. However, the coke inventory of the steel plant remained at the middle and high level, mainly purchasing on demand. In this month, the inventory of coking enterprises increased compared with that of last month, and the game sentiment of steel and coke enterprises was stronger near the end of the month With the intention of price increase, the market is stable temporarily. The ex factory price of metallurgical coke of coke production enterprises in Weifang, Binzhou, Dezhou, Jining, Zaozhuang, Heze, Rizhao and Tai’an in Shandong Province has increased by 50 yuan / ton since 0:00 on the basis of the original price. The downstream steel mills did not accept the following 30 days: the high sulfur coke (customized coke) was reduced by 20-50 yuan / ton, the high sulfur coke (s1.5) was reduced by 20 yuan / ton, and the high sulfur coke (s1.8) was reduced by 50 yuan / ton, which was implemented from 0:00 on July 31. Up to now, the price of coke in Shandong is 1800 yuan / ton, the price is stable temporarily. In terms of inventory, the coke inventory of Shandong’s leading steel mills is in a continuous rising state. In the same period of last month, the price of RMB 1 750 / ton in Shanxi was slightly lower than that in the same period of last month, with a slight increase of RMB 1.750/ton.

Summary of domestic port coke market price (unit: yuan / ton)

 
This week, the price of port remained stable. As of the end of the week, there was an increase in port concentration, limited trading volume and low port inventory. As of the end of the week, the trading volume of the port market was slightly poor, and the quotation was temporarily stable. As of the 31st, the current quotation of grade I metallurgical coke was 1850-1870 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 150 yuan / ton compared with the same period of last month. Inventory: Tianjin Port has 240000 tons of warehouse this week, about 10000 tons higher than last week. Rizhao Port has 945000 tons of inventory this week, up 45000 tons compared with last week.

In terms of aftermarket, the business agency believes that in the near future, coking enterprises are more active in shipping, the inventory of downstream steel mills is on the high side in the middle, and most steel mills mainly purchase on demand. At present, coke and steel enterprises are playing games, some manufacturers are mainly waiting and waiting, and the fourth round of price reduction has not been implemented. It is expected that the future market of coke market will be stable temporarily, and there is still possibility of further downward adjustment.

Coke related data in July 2020:

National Bureau of Statistics: in June 2020, China’s coke output was 40.17 million tons: according to the latest data released by the National Bureau of statistics on July 16, 2020, China’s coke production was 40.17 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 4.2%, and the decline rate was 1 percentage point larger than that of the previous month. From January to June in 2020, China’s coke output was 228.69 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 2.5%, and the decrease rate was 0.3 percentage points lower than that of January March.

In May 2020, the output of raw coal in Shanxi Province will decrease by 0.6% and Coke will increase by 6.2%

According to the Statistics Bureau of Shanxi Province, in May 2020, the output of raw coal above Designated Size in Shanxi Province was 85.334 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 0.6%; and a month on month decrease of 620000 tons, a decrease of 0.72%.

From January to may 2020, the cumulative output of raw coal above Designated Size in Shanxi Province is 394.788 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.6%, and the growth rate is 0.6% lower than that of the previous April.

In May, the added value of coal industry increased by 3.6% year-on-year, and that from January to April increased by 0.3%. In addition, in May 2020, the output of coke above Designated Size in Shanxi Province was 9.103 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 6.2%; and the month on month increase was 237000 tons, an increase of 2.67%.

From January to may 2020, the cumulative coke output above designated size is 40.989 million tons, with a year-on-year increase of 1.3%. The added value of coking industry increased by 6.4% in May and 1.7% in January may.

The time line of three times of raising and lowering in Shandong Province is as follows:

On July 7, the purchase price of coke in Laiwu branch of Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was reduced by 50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the situation was as follows: quasi first grade metallurgical coke: a12.5, s0.7, csr62, cri30, mt0, and acceptance tax of 2225 yuan / ton, which will be implemented from 0:00 on the 7th.

On the 14th, the purchase price of coke in Laiwu branch of Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was reduced by 50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the situation was as follows: quasi first grade metallurgical coke: a12.5, s0.7, csr62, cri30, mt0, and acceptance tax of 2175 yuan / ton, which was implemented from 0:00 on the 14th.

On the 21st, the purchase price of coke in Laiwu branch of Shandong Iron and Steel Co., Ltd. was reduced by 50 yuan / ton. After the adjustment, the situation was as follows: quasi first grade metallurgical coke: a12.5, s0.7, csr62, cri30, mt0, and acceptance tax of 2125 yuan / ton, which will be implemented from 0:00 on the 21st.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, on July 1, 2020, the reference price of 85% formic acid purified water was 1816.67 yuan / ton. As of July 31, the reference price was 1783.33 yuan / ton, which was 1.84% lower than the price at the beginning of the month. In July, the formic acid market showed a steady downward trend.

2、 Market analysis

In July, the domestic industrial grade formic acid market rose as a whole, and the market gradually improved. In the first ten days of July, due to the sufficient supply of goods in the market and the recession of foreign trade export, the inventory of manufacturers in formic acid market has been in a saturated state. The prices quoted by dealers and manufacturers continued to decline for four consecutive weeks. Most of the quotations at the end of the month began to stabilize. Both dealers and manufacturers slightly reduced their quoted prices, with an increase of 50-300 yuan / ton. The market price of formic acid was in a stable state. In late July, most of the enterprises’ prices rose or fell in different ranges, but most of them have risen to around 1800 yuan / ton, and the output of manufacturers is relatively saturated. Some dealers have not adjusted their prices in recent months due to the low competition pressure of market supply. At present, formic acid market has been rising steadily, some of which are still affected by foreign trade.

The domestic liquid ammonia Market of formic acid upstream products fluctuated in July, with the overall price rising and falling in the range of 50-100 yuan / ton; the domestic caustic soda market also showed a stable trend in July, and the downstream products were mainly purchased on demand. The upstream raw material support is good, and the downstream leather and pesticide industry demand is normal.

3、 Future forecast

According to formic acid analysts of the business agency, the domestic formic acid market is in a stable state, with raw materials supporting the formic acid market well, and the market supply is in a relatively saturated state. The market price of formic acid in August may maintain the current quotation if the supply side remains unchanged.

1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

Epichlorohydrin market is weak this week. As of July 24, the average quoted price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9666.67 yuan / ton, down 1.36% compared with the beginning of the week, and 7.64% lower than that of June 24, according to the data of the bulk list of business associations. At present, the shippers are actively shipping, and the downstream small orders just need to replenish. The market negotiation focus is weak. The downstream enterprises hold a cautious wait-and-see attitude, lack of buying gas, and the trading atmosphere is light.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises is summarized (for reference only, the spot price of merchants is subject to the market, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.)

Enterprise market price specification date

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. 9300 yuan / ton high quality products; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-24

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. 9300 yuan / T national standard 99.9 2020-07-24

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. $9300 / T premium product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-24

Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. 9100 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-24

Shandong tashuo Chemical Co., Ltd. 9700 yuan / ton national standard barrel, 240kg / barrel, 2020-07-23

Zibo tengshuo economic and Trade Co., Ltd. $9300 / T, excellent products; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-22

Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. 10000 yuan / T premium products; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-20

Shandong michuan Chemical Co., Ltd. $9100 / T, excellent product; 99.9% Min: 2020-07-20

For upstream propylene, according to the data from the bulk list of business associations, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable after going up this week (7.20 ~ 7.24), and fell slightly at the weekend, with the weekly low price of 6785 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and 6870 yuan / ton at the weekend, and 6876 yuan / ton on Wednesday and Thursday, with a weekly increase of 1.25% and a weekly amplitude of 1.34%. Generally speaking, the inventory pressure of propylene manufacturers is not big, but the shipment is general, the crude oil price is slightly increased, the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, PP market is relatively calm, and the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading is stable. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still in the upper limit of the oscillation range, so it is expected that propylene prices will generally decline in the near future.

Downstream epoxy resin, on July 24, the downstream epoxy resin was in weak finishing operation, the raw material trend was weak, the cost support was weakened, the new single transaction was sporadic, the demand was small, and the market atmosphere was light.

3、 Future forecast

Epichlorohydrin analysts of the business club believe that the price of propylene raw materials will decline at the weekend, the cost side support will be weakened, and the downstream just need small orders to purchase. The wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the shippers are under pressure. It is expected that in the short term, the market situation of epichlorohydrin will be mainly weak.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the market trend of domestic PP was weak in the fourth week of July, and the prices of various brands decreased slightly. As of July 24, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7800.00 yuan / ton, a decrease of 0.21% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of propylene upstream of polypropylene, according to the data of business agency, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price remained stable after rising in the fourth week of July. The weekend price was 6870 yuan / ton, with a weekly increase of 1.25%, which was 0.07% higher than the average price level at the beginning of the month. The recent price of propylene fluctuates periodically, and the price range is relatively stable. Since the beginning of July, the price has been continuously reduced by 200-250 yuan / ton. From June 6 to 9, the price dropped by about 250 yuan / ton. From the 12th to the 16th, the price dropped by 150-200 yuan / ton. Since the third round of rise on 18th, the price has risen about 150 yuan / ton. In recent days, most of the prices are stable. The market transaction is between 6800 yuan / ton and 7100 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 6800-6850 yuan / ton. Now propylene manufacturers shipping general, inventory pressure is not big. At present, the shipment situation is general, the crude oil price has slightly increased, and the overall downstream market operating rate is fair, but the purchasing enthusiasm is weak, and the market trading is temporarily stable. At present, most of the propylene market prices are still in the upper limit of the oscillation range, so it is expected that propylene prices will generally decline in the near future.

Upstream propylene shock adjustment in July, the PP cost side support is general. Recent PP (drawing) market performance is weak. According to the data monitored by the business agency, the spot price of PP (wire drawing) has been running smoothly in early July. Since the 6th, the price of various grades has been increased by about 250 yuan / ton. On the 12th, the average price of drawing material reached the recent high of 8066.67 yuan / ton, and then the spot price has gradually adjusted back to now. As of July 24, the main offer price of T30S (drawing) of domestic manufacturers and traders is about 7800.00 yuan / ton, with monthly vibration At present, it has reached 3.31%. On the supply side, the recent wire drawing production schedule is normal, and there are more new equipment put into production in the second half of the year. In the early ten days, there was a shock of imported materials arriving at the port, and the inventory increased to a certain extent. However, the improvement in demand is limited. At present, the downstream stock mood is not high, and the wait-and-see mood is heavy, and the actual trading atmosphere is relatively cold. In addition, lower futures, resulting in the market to fall mentality. However, near the end of the month, in order to complete the plan, the industry has more positive adjustments. PP market is expected to continue to adjust in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of July 24, the mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) of domestic manufacturers and traders was about 7783.33 yuan / ton, which was 0.85% lower than the average price at the beginning of the month. At present, the domestic spot price of PP (fiber) is relatively stable. Although the overall panel is aided by macro demand, the de stocking speed has slowed down in recent years, and the pressure on the supply side has increased. At the end of the month, there is a profit concession in the transaction, the downstream factories have a heavy wait-and-see atmosphere, the purchase follow-up is insufficient, and the on-site transaction is poor. Recently, the stability of PP (fiber) disk is weak, and the operation is rigid.

The market of PP melt blown materials continues to be weak. According to the prices of business agencies, the current domestic prices of PP (melt blown) materials continue to decline. As of July 24, the average quoted price of meltblown PP for melt index 1500 is about 17000 yuan / ton. Domestic public health events are generally stable, and the demand for epidemic prevention materials has entered a stable stage. And some epidemic prevention related products were oversupply, and most of the prices fell. The demand for melt blown fabric directly downstream also shrinks greatly, and the diversification of epidemic prevention materials also has a certain dispersion on the demand for masks. PP (melt blown) has fallen with the downstream, the business mentality is negative, and the phenomenon of leaving the field is still more. It is expected that melt blown fabric will still be difficult to improve in the near future.

Future forecast

PP business agency analysts believe: July fourth week domestic PP spot market trend weak. Upstream propylene market shock consolidation, the cost of PP support in general. PP (drawing) price fell, PP (fiber) big stable small move. PP (melt blown) demand weakened, prices continue to callback. At present, China is still in the peak season of maintenance, and the supply increment of granular material end is limited. However, the pressure of propylene production enterprises to ship goods is relatively large recently. In addition, it is reported that there are equipment put into operation in the second half of the year. Although there is a recovery of macro demand, the petrochemical plant’s stock reduction slows down, and the downstream factory’s stock preparation follow-up is poor, and the business mentality is loose, and the actual transaction is weak. PP market is expected to continue to be weak, it is recommended to pay attention to the further trend of supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business agency, the market of chloroform in Shandong was temporarily stable this week, and the average price of chloroform in Shandong remained at about 2000 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of the same period last month.

Production capacity and operation of the enterprise

Jinling, Shandong Province: 440000 tons / year: 60%

Dongying Jinmao 120000 tons / year parking

Luxi Chemical Industry: 400000 tons / year: 50%

Jiangsu Liwen 160000 tons / year normal

Jiangxi Liwen: 120000 tons / year: 50%

Affected by the negative production decline of some enterprises in Shandong Province, the spot supply of chloroform market has declined. In addition, the inventory pressure of enterprises is not obvious. The enterprises have a good attitude of price support, and the ex factory quotation is slightly increased. The downstream market is mainly in demand, and some traders replenish goods to support the firm operation of chloroform price. At present, the quotation in Shandong is about 1950-2000 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen is about 2300 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu is about 2650 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream market, the methanol market continued to weaken, and some maintenance units were restarted in the early stage, and the supply side was expected to increase in the near future; the inventory of some downstream enterprises was on the high side, and the downstream market was not able to catch up with the high price, and the overall transaction atmosphere turned weak, at present, the liquid chlorine market started to go down, and the increase in market supply led to obvious price reduction in the downstream market, with the current average price of 800-900 yuan/ About tons.

On the other hand, the after-sales market demand of R22 downstream of trichloromethane is weak, the manufacturers are under pressure to ship, and the start-up is not high. The R22 market remains stable within the week, and the merchants and sub packers are cautious to take the goods. It is expected that the trend of R22 refrigerant will be stable in the short term, at present, it is about 15000-17000 yuan / T; pharmaceutical and agricultural diluents and other industries mainly purchase rigid demand, and support the trichloromethane market is flat.

According to the methane chloride data of the business society, the supply of chloroform market is limited at present, and the demand for purchasing in the downstream market is just flat. The market is weak in both supply and demand. It is expected that the market will be straightened out in a short period of time.

The international crude oil price surged higher and fell back. The new round of domestic refined oil price adjustment has not reached the adjustment line of 50 yuan / ton. The domestic product oil market price lacks guidance, and the price of gasoline and diesel rises and falls in different ways. According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the gasoline price on July 17 was 5292 yuan / ton, up 1.25% compared with July 13; the gasoline price on July 17 was 4793 yuan / ton, down 1.02% from July 13.

In terms of international crude oil, U.S. crude oil demand improved and crude oil inventory decreased significantly. While the crude oil market released good news, OPEC + relaxed production reduction as scheduled, and the overseas epidemic continued to drag down the global economy and crude oil demand prospects. International oil prices rose first and then fell, while WTI crude oil prices fluctuated above $40 / barrel. High volatility of crude oil market lacks direction guidance for refined oil market.

In terms of gasoline, in the three week weather, more oil is used for automobile air conditioning, and the terminal demand is relatively good. Traders and terminal gas stations are more active in replenishment, and the market price is supported. In terms of diesel, the southern region has continuous rainfall and increasing flood, and the outdoor operations such as mining, logistics and infrastructure are limited. The demand for diesel oil is not good, and the market price lacks support. Overall, diesel market demand is not as good as gasoline market, gasoline prices rose while diesel ajig fell slightly.

Recently, some refinery units have entered the maintenance period, and the start-up load of the refinery has declined slightly. The supply of refined oil resources has been slightly reduced, and the pressure on domestic oil product shipment has eased.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst at the business agency, said: international oil prices will continue to consolidate around $40 / barrel, entering the peak gasoline demand season in three volt weather, while the impact of rainfall on the diesel market in the South will gradually weaken. It is expected that the price differentiation trend of gasoline and diesel will begin to shrink in late July.

The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong this week was 866.67 yuan / ton, up 0.78% month on month and 24.85% lower than last year.

Recently, the domestic market price of formaldehyde has remained stable. As of July 17, the mainstream factory quotation in Central China is about 910 yuan / ton, that of mainstream manufacturers in North China is 740 yuan / ton, and that in East China is 892 yuan / ton. Linyi Jinyuan Chemical has two formaldehyde production lines with an annual production capacity of 80000 tons, formaldehyde content of 37% and load of 50%. Recently, the market of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been stable, the start-up of formaldehyde enterprises is basically stable, the supply of goods in the market is acceptable, the atmosphere of trading in the market is flat and light, and the formaldehyde market is volatile and consolidation.

Upstream methanol situation: the performance of the mainland and port markets is different. Due to the strong performance of some equipment maintenance markets in Northwest China, the manufacturers’ inventory pressure is not great, and the futures price is higher, the enterprise offers actively follow up; on the port side, after the spot price adjustment, the downstream lacks the ability to receive high price goods, and the market is short of gas. At the same time, the high stock of port continues to suppress the methanol price; the demand side is affected by the rainy season Under the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the overall start-up of the traditional downstream was lower than expected. Although the profit of MTO was fair, the start-up was still at a low level compared with the same period last year. Some manufacturers still planned to repair in July.

The downstream wood board entered the traditional off-season, the terminal demand continued to be weak, just needed procurement was maintained, the market trading atmosphere was flat and light, formaldehyde enterprises shipped smoothly, the market changed little, and the shock consolidation.

In recent days, the upstream methanol continued to fluctuate in a narrow range, and the demand for terminal side was poor, and the basic demand was mainly rigid demand. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of the chemical branch of the business agency predict that the domestic formaldehyde price will be stable in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the business club’s big list data, the domestic caprolactam market price rose this week. The average ex factory price of caprolactam on July 6 was 10333 yuan / ton, while that on July 10 was 9933 yuan / ton, with a price drop of 3.87%.

2、 Market analysis

The actual production capacity of Shandong Hexi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 9300 tons, and the actual production capacity of Luxi Chemical was 9300 tons. Nanjing Dongfang caprolactam liquid price 10600 yuan / T, 400000 tons / year of the plant normal operation, caprolactam unit normal operation. Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid price 10400 yuan / T, 450000 tons / year, the plant was normally started, accepted and delivered. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical Company is 10400 yuan / T, and the 300000 tons / year unit is normally started and accepted.

The listing price of raw material pure benzene was 3050-3300 yuan / ton (the average price was 3150 yuan / ton), which was 10 yuan / ton higher than last week, or 0.32%. This week, Sinopec’s listed price of pure benzene remained stable, and the price of pure benzene in Shandong rebounded slightly. In the first half of the week, Shandong pure benzene experienced a wave of bottoming rebound. In the second half of the week, due to the continuous impact of higher inventory, the market mentality was slightly poor and the price was stable. Downstream PA6 slices fell this week, with cold trading.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts believe that the current raw material prices continue to fall, cost support is limited, the downward trend is still in. Now caprolactam supply is sufficient, downstream demand is poor, the overall market is weak. Caprolactam prices are expected to continue to fall in the future.

1、 Price trend

This week, the comprehensive price of hydrochloric acid in North China is temporarily stable, with an offer of 350.00 yuan / ton. Overall, the market of hydrochloric acid remained stable this week, with the commodity index of hydrochloric acid on July 10 at 92.11.

2、 Market analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, this week’s hydrochloric acid Market manufacturer’s quotation is stable temporarily, the overall market is general. The quotation of Taiyuan kunshengda hydrochloric acid is 480 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is 300 yuan / T, which is temporarily stable; Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is 260 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Jinan Yuanfei hydrochloric acid is quoted at 450 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Dezhou Meihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 210 yuan / T at weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is generally in general, which gives weak support to hydrochloric acid, while the low-level consolidation of the downstream silica market has a negative impact on hydrochloric acid, while the high-level consolidation of ammonium chloride Market in the downstream of hydrochloric acid has a certain support for the price of hydrochloric acid. This week, the overall hydrochloric acid market seems to have fallen slightly, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid delivery is still a major problem.

3、 Future forecast

The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine is general, while the downstream silica and ammonium chloride are mainly purchased on demand. Business agency analysts believe that hydrochloric acid recent low consolidation.

1、 Price trend:

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the price of caustic soda was mainly weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong market was about 515 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average price in Shandong market was 512.5 yuan / ton, with the price falling by 0.49% and 26.26% compared with the same period last year. The commodity index of caustic soda on July 9 was 73.74, which was the same as yesterday, decreased by 64.35% from the highest point 206.87 in the cycle (November 14, 2017), and increased by 9.03% from the lowest point of 67.63 on May 10, 2020. (Note: period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

The price of domestic liquid caustic soda is basically stable, the awareness of upstream price is strong, and the downstream demand is weak. It is expected that the price of caustic soda in Shandong will be stable in the later stage, and the price will be weak. At present, the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane caustic soda is 490-550 yuan / ton in Shandong market, 1400-1450 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, and 600-630 yuan / ton in Zhejiang market. There are not many flake caustic soda in stock, and it is said that northwest manufacturers have strong willingness to raise prices. At present, the market quotation of Northwest just needs to be stable. The price of flake caustic soda is 1750-1850 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia market, 2050-2100 yuan / ton in East China market, and 2200-2250 yuan / ton in Guangdong market. This week, the supply of caustic soda is limited, and the production reduction devices are mainly in Shandong Province, but the market supply is still sufficient.

This week, the domestic liquid chlorine market rose and fell, but the overall following behavior was dominant. At the beginning of the week, Shandong market was affected by the early high price, the market price decreased narrowly, the market trading atmosphere became weak, and the manufacturers’ inventory gradually increased. During the week, with the equipment load of Dongying manufacturers in the middle and East decreased, the overall supply of goods decreased, the regional inventory was digested, and the market turned to be stable. But at present, the market transaction situation is still not optimistic.

Demand: in recent years, the price of aluminum fluctuates more strongly, and the enthusiasm of electrolytic aluminum enterprises to increase and resume production is high. With the release of electrolytic aluminum production capacity, the demand for raw materials in the later stage shows an increasing trend. However, some alumina plants are still in the state of reduction and shutdown, and the enterprises have strong willingness to stand up for sale. In the low season of caustic soda demand and the expectation of future maintenance, the domestic caustic soda market is mainly in shock and deadlock.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, in the 26th week (6.29-7.3) of 2020, there are 0 kinds of commodities rising and 2 kinds of falling commodities in the price rising and falling list of chlor alkali industry, and there are 3 kinds of commodities that rise or fall to 0. The main commodities that fell were calcium carbide (- 4.26%) and PVC (- 0.48%). This week, the average rise and fall was – 0.95%.

Business agency analysts believe that: equipment maintenance of some chlor alkali enterprises supports the market, but the overall supply of goods in the market is still sufficient. In addition, the downstream is in the low-season of high-temperature demand, most of the caustic soda enterprises still have pressure to ship. It is expected that the market price of caustic soda will continue to be stable in the short term.

The commodity index of polyaluminum chloride on June 29 was 95.27, which was the same as yesterday, setting a new historical low in the cycle, down 12.60% from the peak of 109.01 on August 28, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

According to the data, the overall price of polyaluminum chloride in June 2020 was stable and slightly decreased. The domestic mainstream quotation changed little and the market was relatively light. For polyaluminum chloride with solid content ≥ 28%, the mainstream quotation was about 1775 yuan / ton on the 1st of this month, and 1762.5 yuan / ton on the 30th, with a slight drop of 0.7%. At present, the price range of polyaluminium chloride monitored by the trade organization is generally quoted: liquid: industrial grade, content 10%-12%) quoted price is 410 yuan / ton; solid: industrial grade, content 20-21% quoted price 850-860 yuan / ton, content 24% quoted price 1220 yuan / ton, content 28% price 1500-1550 yuan / ton, content is more than 30%, price 1550-1600 yuan / ton, plate and frame type: 28% yuan, price 1500-1550 yuan / ton; spray type: content is more than 30%. The quotation is 1800-1850 yuan / ton; drinking water level: 1700 yuan / ton if the content is more than or equal to 28%; food grade: about 2800 yuan / ton if the content is 30%. In June, the prices of various specifications of polyaluminum chloride did not change much, some manufacturers made minor adjustments, and the demand and transaction atmosphere were generally stable, weaker than last year.

The data shows that among the upstream products of polyaluminum chloride, the mainstream ex factory price of hydrochloric acid in North China fluctuated in June and rose slightly at the end of the month. On June 1, 333 yuan / ton was quoted, and on the 30th, 312 yuan / ton was quoted, with a reduction rate of 5.30%. The actual transaction price of manufacturers is subject to negotiation. From the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market is general, the downstream purchasing enthusiasm is normal, and the support for hydrochloric acid is weak. The price of the downstream silica market rose slightly at the end of the month, which had a positive impact on hydrochloric acid, while the market of ammonium chloride in the downstream of hydrochloric acid first fell and then rose, but the increase was limited, which brought some support to the price of hydrochloric acid. The overall market of hydrochloric acid in this month seems to rise first and then fall. The price rises slightly at the beginning of the month. The price drops slightly in the middle of the month, with a small increase at the end of the month. The overall decrease is about 20 yuan / ton. At present, it is still a big problem to ship hydrochloric acid. Downstream: according to the manufacturer, the market of polyaluminum chloride will not improve greatly in 2020. The current market is general, and the future market is expected to maintain the status quo. There is no luxury in the big market.

As far as the whole industry is concerned, from 2020 to now, during the Spring Festival holiday to February 20, relevant enterprises in the main production areas have stopped production and delayed to resume work; after February 20, manufacturers in main production areas have successively resumed their work and production; in March, logistics has gradually recovered, and transportation costs have returned to normal; in April, the overall production is normal, some enterprises still have high inventory due to difficulties in delivery, and the output is affected; in May, polyaluminum chloride (PACl) has entered The overall demand has not recovered, the market situation is poor, the shipment is general, and the transaction continues to be weak; in June, the raw materials changed little, and the natural gas used for drying rebounded by about 1% from the bottom this month, and then turned down, with a slight drop of about 0.25% this month, which has little impact on the market. The downstream demand of polyaluminum chloride is still weak, which is the current industrial environment of water treatment. The overall situation in the first half of the year has not changed much, and the overall environment is poor, so the market of polyaluminum chloride is inevitably weak.

With regard to the future market, the business agency analyzed that the overall light of the water treatment industry in June and the general industrial environment determined that the trend of individual commodities such as polyaluminum chloride would not improve much. This month, the price of raw materials in the upstream of polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly, and the downstream demand atmosphere did not change. The price changes of some manufacturers were only flexible adjustment in the factory, with a small range. The manufacturers said that the situation of difficult business this year will continue. For the future market, maintaining stability and occasionally fine-tuning will still be the main keynote.

The price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid rose in June. As of the end of the month, the market price of hydrofluoric acid was 8920 yuan / ton, which was 3.36% higher than that of 8630 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year decrease of 25.91%.

Recently, the domestic hydrofluoric acid price has risen slightly. Up to now, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China is 8500-9000 yuan / ton. The domestic demand for hydrofluoric acid has increased. The favorable factors for the high price of hydrofluoric acid include the following aspects:

First, the market price of hydrofluoric acid raw material fluorite rose. By the end of the month, the domestic price of fluorite was 2800 yuan / ton, up 5.22% in June. In June, the domestic spot supply of fluorite was normal, and some of the merchants with low prices could not come out. The market reflected that the spot supply of fluorite was slightly tight, and the price of fluorite increased slightly. By the end of the month, the mainstream of domestic fluorite negotiation was 2650-2850 yuan / ton. The rising price of fluorite in the market was a good support for hydrofluoric acid market, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price rose.

Second, the domestic market of refrigerants recovered in June. On the one hand, domestic demand improved. Although the start-up of the refrigerant industry did not increase significantly, the demand for hydrofluoric acid market increased, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price went up. On the other hand, the economy of Europe and the United States recovered, the export of refrigerants improved compared with the previous period, and some prices of domestic refrigerant industry rose. As of the end of the month, the domestic R22 product price was 16000 yuan / ton, with an increase of 7.87% in June. The rise of refrigerant price is another good thing for hydrofluoric acid market. In recent years, the sales situation of the automobile industry has improved, the market price of refrigerant downstream of the terminal has increased, the foreign economy has gradually recovered, and the export of refrigerant terminal has improved. In addition, the sales and after-sales maintenance of the domestic air-conditioning industry have increased compared with before, so the domestic and foreign demand has increased. The price of refrigerants went up, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid went up due to the support from the downstream.

Third, the domestic hydrofluoric acid spot supply is normal, the hydrofluoric acid plant is running stably, and the hydrofluoric acid market price has risen slightly. So far, the mainstream hydrofluoric acid negotiation in the southern region is 8500-9000 yuan / ton, and the hydrofluoric acid price in the northern market is 8000-9000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend has risen slightly, some manufacturers reflect that hydrofluoric acid exists in the cracks, and some manufacturers still have losses.

On the whole, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price has risen due to various favorable factors. However, recently, the fluorite traders have reported that there is still room for increase in the fluorite market price. In addition, the rising R22 price in the upstream raw material market will become a good support for the hydrofluoric acid market. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market price was stable this week, with the average domestic price of 3680 yuan / ton as of Friday, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of isomeric xylene is generally stable, compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly sluggish, and the transaction is not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the supply side and demand side formed expected pressure on oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival: shale oil production in the United States rose sharply; the second outbreak of the global epidemic was confirmed; and the trade friction between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. Affected by this, crude oil prices briefly broke through the previous high and then fell back, and the probability of oil price fluctuations in the future increased. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 4.51%, Brent futures was down 5.14%, WTI futures was down 2.96%, and Dubai futures was down 2.19%.

In terms of downstream, PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3670 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 444 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is stable at 4400 yuan / T, and the external price of o-benzene is about 515 US dollars / ton FOB Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA inventory situation in the supply cost side. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that xylene prices in the domestic market will adjust slightly next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity data monitoring, the domestic isopropanol price rose first and then fell in June, and it still rose in the whole month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of isopropanol in China was 11500 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average price was 11975 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

In June, domestic isopropanol prices rose first and then fell. In the first ten days of June, the price of isopropanol rose all the way due to the influence of acetone. On June 1, the average price was 11500 yuan / ton, and on June 10, the average price was 13933.33 yuan / ton, an overall increase of 21.16%. Then, with the decline of acetone, isopropanol also further followed the decline. As of June 28, the average price was 11975 yuan / ton, down 14.06% from June 10.

In terms of raw materials, the market price of acetone is closely related to the price of isopropanol. The market price of acetone has also changed from the rising trend at the beginning of the month to the stable transition in the middle of the month to the gradual reduction. As of the end of the month, the price of acetone has returned rationally. At present, the mainstream market has fallen below 10000 yuan. In the short term, the negotiation range in East China is 9600-9900 yuan / ton. The price of isopropanol by acetone method also follows its adjustment, the price rises first and then falls.

In terms of propylene, the market price of propylene in Shandong Province fluctuated frequently this month. Overall, in June, the propylene market price in Shandong went up. At the beginning of the month, the average domestic propylene price was 6642.73 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average propylene price was 6871.72 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price was increased by 2.09%. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. The profit of propylene isopropanol is still very considerable. Due to the decrease of foreign trade orders, there is still room for price reduction.

International markets, as of June 23, the U.S. isopropanol market continued to fall deeply, while the European isopropanol market closed down sharply. Overseas disinfectant market demand for isopropanol decreased, overseas orders decreased, isopropanol factory operating rate decreased, and the price decreased. In terms of domestic trade, there are many inquiries, mainly waiting and taking care of the goods. Up to now, the negotiation range of Shandong isopropanol is about 11500-11900 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu isopropanol is 11500-11800 yuan / ton. The negotiation range of isopropanol in South China is 12600-12700 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

According to isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of business society, the price of raw material acetone is rational, the profit of isopropanol produced by propylene method is considerable, and the cost support is limited. International market, isopropanol market continued to fall. In terms of demand, foreign trade benefits slowed down, and export orders decreased significantly. There are many domestic trade enquiries, mainly waiting and taking care of the goods. On the whole, in the short term, the price of isopropanol is likely to continue to decline, and follow-up attention will be paid to the change of news.

On June 23, the sulfur commodity index was 35.85, up 0.73 points from yesterday, down 65.48% from 103.84 (2011-11-02), the highest point in the cycle, and up 39.01% from 25.79, the lowest point on February 24, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of sulfur production in East China is 653.33 yuan / ton, up 2.08% per day. On Tuesday, refineries in various regions adjusted their quotations according to their own shipments. The overall price fluctuation in the domestic sulfur market was relatively small. Except for the increase in the price of sulfur fixation in East China, the price of solid liquid sulfur in North China and Shandong remained stable. On March 23, Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in East China was increased by 20-40 yuan / ton, with an offer of 630-700 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in North China was increased by 510-610 yuan / ton; Sinopec’s price of solid sulfur in Shandong was increased by 660-670 yuan / ton.

At present, the external market news of sulfur is relatively flat, the market is not good for pulling, and the market is stable, medium and weak. In the later stage, it is still necessary to observe the release of downstream demand and the price dynamics of the external market. In the downstream, the phosphate fertilizer enterprises are stuck in operation, the domestic market performance is flat, the overall inventory pressure of the enterprises is small, the demand for fertilizer in the later autumn is good, and the price may rise.

Future market forecast: at present, the market is lack of positive pull, and the market lacks guidance of substantive news in the short term. It is expected that the domestic sulfur market will operate stably as a whole.

The international oil price fell first and then rose, while the domestic gasoline price fell slightly. The MTBE market was short of positive results, and the overall price remained stable. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE on June 19 was 3900 yuan / ton, only 0.43% higher than that at the beginning of the week.

This week, the international crude oil price is in the rebound trend after the fall, but the recent international crude oil market is not good enough to follow up, and the international oil price cannot break the floor price of $40 / barrel of refined oil price adjustment. The consumption in the lower reaches of most regions in the North continues to be good, while the demand in some regions in the south is reduced due to rainfall, and the demand in the gasoline market is favorable and insufficient. The decline of gasoline price suppresses the market price of MTBE.

However, the apparent consumption of refined oil in April was 27.64 million tons, up 2.1% year on year, of which gasoline was up 4.53% year on year. In the first ten days of June, the ground refining operation rate in Shandong Province rose to a high level of about 76%, and the increase of gasoline production boosted the demand for intermediate materials.

MTBE product analyst of energy branch of business news agency thinks: domestic gasoline price is still possible to decline, but at present, refinery construction is relatively high, which supports the demand for MTBE and other intermediate materials. It is expected that MTBE market price may fall in the near future, but the decline is limited.

The seasonal off-season of asphalt itself overlaps the high domestic asphalt operating rate, and the domestic asphalt market price is under pressure. According to the price monitoring data of the business agency, on June 19, the asphalt price was reported as 2300 yuan / ton, down 1.08% compared with that at the beginning of the week.

The data shows that the operation rate of domestic asphalt plant has increased from 61% to 65% in recent years, and the asphalt supply in South China, East China, Shandong and northwest regions has increased. In May, the total output of domestic asphalt was close to 2.8 million tons; the monthly growth rate was more than 300000 tons, and the quantity of imported asphalt in May was about 440000 tons, which was basically the same on a month on month basis. In June, Sinopec and its refineries are expected to maintain a high level of construction, and the market supply pressure will not be reduced.

The high supply of asphalt market meets the low seasonal demand of asphalt. In the near future, the demand in Shandong and North China is stable, and the users in the middle and lower reaches purchase on demand; the rainy weather in East China limits the construction and terminal demand, and the shipment of refineries and traders slows down. The weather in Northeast and Northwest China is good, there are many terminal road construction projects, and asphalt needs to be supported.

This week, the international crude oil price is in the rebound trend after the fall, but the recent international crude oil market is not good enough to follow up, and the international oil price cannot exceed $40 / barrel. From the news point of view, the crude oil market does not have any effective direction guidance for the time being, and the market is worried about the second outbreak of the epidemic, so it is not optimistic about the crude oil market. The asphalt market will lose the support of cost and price.

Business analysts believe that the short-term international oil price is under great pressure at the $40 / barrel level, and the asphalt supply shows no signs of reducing, and it is expected that the domestic asphalt price will continue to bear downward pressure.

1、 Price data

As of June 19, the average ex factory price of domestic main refined and hydrogenated naphtha was 4500 yuan / ton, down 1.69% from 4580 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, and the actual transaction price of refined and hydrogenated naphtha was about 4400-4500 yuan / ton.

On June 18, the naphtha commodity index was 55.79, down 0.49 points from yesterday, 45.63% from 102.62 (2012-09-24), the highest point in the cycle, and 32.08% higher than 42.24, the lowest point on July 19, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Naphtha prices fell slightly this week, with ample inventories.

Upstream: according to the monitoring of the business news agency, WTI crude oil in the United States is 37.12 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 39.05 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of more than 5%; Brent crude oil is 39.72 USD / barrel at the beginning of the week, 41.51 USD / barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase or decrease of 4.80%. At the OPEC + ministerial meeting, the assessment of the record production reduction agreement released a signal of increased implementation rate of production reduction, offsetting some emotional disturbance of demand concerns caused by the epidemic. Crude oil prices continued to fluctuate at high levels, and the naphtha drop was mostly affected by the sharp drop in crude oil prices last week.

Downstream: according to the monitoring of the business agency, the domestic toluene market price fell this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3550 yuan / ton, down 2.47% on last week. The domestic xylene market price also declined this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3650 yuan / ton, down 2.39% on last week. The domestic inventory pressure is gradually prominent, and the risk of oversupply is once again hyped.

3、 Future forecast

According to energy analysts of business club, this week’s naphtha refining fell slightly, with sufficient inventory and general downstream purchasing sentiment. It is expected that the price of naphtha refining and hydrogenation will continue to decline in the near future, with the average price range of 4100-4400 yuan / ton.

1、 Price trend

This week, the ex factory price of carbide in Northwest China was temporarily stable. This week, the average ex factory price of main carbide manufacturers was 2690.00 yuan / ton, up 4.81% year on year. Overall, this week’s carbide market is temporarily stable, with the carbide commodity index at 70.48 on June 12.

2、 Trend analysis

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China this week is temporarily stable: the quotation of oveganeng calcium carbide this week is 2700 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Shaanxi coal industry calcium carbide this week is 2550 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Neimenggu Zhonglian calcium carbide this week is 2760 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the quotation of Ningxia Xingping calcium carbide this week is 2750 yuan / ton/ Tons, compared with the beginning of the week, the offer is temporarily stable.

On the whole, the actual transaction price of carbide in Northwest China is about 2500-2700 yuan / ton this weekend: the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Shaanxi is about 2500-2600 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Ningxia is about 2700 yuan / ton; the mainstream transaction price of carbide in Inner Mongolia is about 2700 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of calcium carbide, the price of raw materials in the upstream market is temporarily stable this week. At present, the quotation of small materials is 530 yuan / ton, that of medium materials is 550 yuan / ton, and that of large materials is about 660 yuan / ton. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low and consolidated, with general cost support, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Downstream market, PVC factory price this week temporarily stable. The price of PVC was 6337.50 yuan / ton, down 4.70% year on year. This week PVC price is temporarily stable, the market situation is general, and the enthusiasm of the downstream for calcium carbide procurement is also weakened. As a whole, PVC market this week has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

3、 Future forecast

In the middle of June, the market of calcium carbide fluctuated slightly. The price of raw materials in the upstream is low, which generally supports the price of calcium carbide, while the price of PVC in the downstream is high, with limited increase, and the purchase enthusiasm of downstream customers for calcium carbide is weakened. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may fall slightly in mid June.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic chlorinated paraffin 52 grade I products was 4833 yuan / ton on June 8 and 4833 yuan / ton on June 12, and the price remained stable this week.

The commodity index of chlorinated paraffin on June 12 was 71.96, which was the same as yesterday, 34.24% lower than the highest point of 109.43 (2013-12-03), and 12.70% higher than the lowest point of 63.85 on September 26, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-06-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the market price of chlorinated paraffin is stable. The ex factory price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Jiangsu Province is 4600-5200 yuan / ton, that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Hebei Province is 3900-4800 yuan / ton, and that of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Henan Province is 4000-5300 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northeast China is 4400-5200 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Shandong Province is about 4900 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in Northwest China is 4800-5400 yuan / ton. The ex factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in East China is 4500-5400 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in North China is 4000-5000 yuan / ton. The factory quotation of chlorinated paraffin 52 in South China is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

At present, the raw material market is dominated by high-level operation. The price of wax in the upstream feed liquid remained stable and the cost support was limited. The raw material liquid chlorine fluctuated steadily, and the price was blocked. The downstream demand is limited and the transaction situation is poor.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of chlorinated paraffin in business association believe that the chlorinated paraffin market is currently in a stalemate. The price of raw materials is mainly high and stable. Some enterprises adjust flexibly and need to take more goods. Due to the poor demand of terminal enterprises, it is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will run smoothly in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of June 5, the average ex factory price of domestic butanone market is around 6733 yuan / ton, which is 500 yuan / ton higher than that of this Monday, 8% higher in the week, and 933 yuan / ton higher than that of early May, 16% higher.

Brief review of butanone market in May

First, briefly review the market trend of butanone in May. After the labor day in May, the price of domestic butanone market rebounded rapidly on the 6th and 7th. At that time, the main advantages were driven by the sharp rise of acetone and the low level of factory inventory after replenishment of positions in the downstream before the festival. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of the 7th, the reference average price of domestic butanone factory was 6233 yuan / ton, 433 yuan / ton higher than that before the festival, and then the market maintained stable operation for a week, The main reason is that the release of downstream demand is still insufficient and the rise is weak. Until May 15, the factory had a strong desire to increase, and the price slightly increased by 100-200 yuan / ton. However, the real problems of the supply and demand side still exist, and the downstream conflicted with the high price mentality. On May 19, the market rebounded at a stage, the factory failed to meet the inventory pressure, and the quotation slightly decreased. In the following days, the market was mainly narrow. Until the 25th, affected by the sharp rise of acetone and crude oil market, the mentality of butanone market players improved, the contradiction between supply and demand eased, and the market quotation rebounded. As of May 31, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory reference price of butanone in China was 6233 yuan / ton, up 433 yuan / ton or 7.47% compared with that at the beginning of the month. The maximum amplitude is 7.47%.

Analysis and forecast of market situation in June

At the end of May, the steady rising momentum of the market supported the butanone market in June. Since the beginning of June, with the sharp rise of crude oil market and the sharp rise of acetone market, the butanone market has been strongly supported. The mentality of butanone market players is improving, and the downstream market is also replenishing, and the market price keeps rising with the increase of demand. Since the beginning of the month, the butanone market has been rising for 5 consecutive days. As of June 5, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory reference price of butanone in China has risen to 6733 yuan / ton. Compared with June 1, it has risen 500 yuan / ton in 5 days, an increase of 8%. Compared with the beginning of May, it has risen 933 yuan / ton, an increase of 16%. At present, the reference factory price of domestic butanone in East China market is around 6900 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 900 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the reference factory price of domestic butanone in North China market is around 6500 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 500 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May; the reference factory price of domestic butanone in South China market is around 7200 yuan / ton, which has rebounded about 1100 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of May.

In terms of supply and demand, in May, Fushun Petrochemical resumed the operation of 30000 T / a plant, with a small increase in supply. At present, butanone plant in June has been operating smoothly in the near future, and there is no maintenance plan. On the downstream side, the process of domestic resumption of production is good. For the next demand expectation in June, the commencement of downstream adhesives and slurry is expected to be further improved.

In terms of cost, with the sharp rise of butanone price in the first week of June, the industry profit should be increased compared with the previous period, and the profit will increase accordingly. At present, the production enthusiasm of butanone enterprises has been improved, and the downstream demand has been gradually opened. It is hoped that the butanone market will recover a good profit in the early stage as soon as possible.

On the whole, the market price of butanone showed signs of stopping falling and rising at the end of May. In June, the supply and demand of butanone market was more optimistic than that in the earlier stage, the confidence of the industry was improved, and the factory inventory was low. In the first week of June, the price of butanone rose for 5 consecutive days, and the market was affected by the rising of international crude oil 6, with a positive attitude. As a result, there is little room for the butanone industry’s production profit to continue to fall sharply.

The butanone analyst of the business agency boldly predicted that the inflection point of the butanone market might be this month. Of course, considering the market trend of the narrow volatility of the butanone market in May, and the market impact from the macro perspective, the following market may still have insufficient supply and demand benefits, as well as the great uncertainty of external factors such as foreign public health events and exports, the domestic butanone market will not be excluded There is still the possibility of another decline.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of June 5, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol including packaging in mainstream areas was around 11700 yuan / ton, up 533 yuan / ton or 4.78% compared with June 1, up 866 yuan / ton or 7.04% compared with the beginning of May, up 1633 yuan / ton or 16.04% compared with the beginning of April.

Since the second quarter of 2020, the domestic n-propanol market has risen all the way, with an increase of more than 16%

After the Spring Festival in 2020, affected by public health events, logistics and transportation, the domestic n-propanol market has been dominated by low-level operation from February to March, while the downstream is used and purchased, with general demand. The factory produces on demand and mainly supplies contract users. Due to the different development of chemical industry in different countries, the application of n-propanol is also quite different. In China, n-propanol is mainly used as raw materials for the production of n-Propyl Acetate, with market demand accounting for about 65% and direct use as solvent only accounting for about 8%.

In April, the sharp rise of isopropanol led to the flying of n-propanol and it

At the beginning of April, the domestic n-propanol market as a whole still maintained the weak low-level operation in the early stage. Until the middle of April, affected by the sharp rise of the market of isopropanol, the market price of isopropanol once broke through 13000 yuan / ton, and the inventory was low. Many downstream users began to replenish n-propanol instead of isopropanol as a solvent. Therefore, since the middle of April, the demand of domestic n-propanol market has increased significantly, The factory stock is tight, and the price is also rising. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on April 30, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol factory was 10933 yuan / ton, up 900 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, up more than 8%.

N-propanol continued to rise steadily in May

Since the beginning of May, although the price of isopropanol has fallen, the early rise is still the same, and the advantage as a solvent is still not significant, so this month’s n-propanol market is still stable and rising. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on May 31, the average ex factory reference price of n-propanol in China was 11166 yuan / ton, 230 yuan / ton higher than that in early May, an increase of more than 2.3%, 1100 yuan / ton higher than that in early April, an increase of nearly 11%.

In the early days of June, the isopropanol market rose again slightly, driving the market of n-propanol to keep up with the rising sentiment. As of June 5, Nanjing: the manufacturer Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., the production unit of n-propanol was operating normally, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol for external purified water was 10500 yuan / ton (ex warehouse price of cash purified water). Shandong Province: at present, the overall inventory of n-propanol market is low, the ex factory price of purified water and the self raised price of the port including packaging have been increased by 500-1000 yuan / ton.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of n-propanol of some enterprises in China on June 5, 2020 (for reference only)

Enterprise name price type price (yuan / ton including tax) specification remarks time

Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. ex factory price: 10500 yuan / ton; purified water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: excellent; June 5, 2020

Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11500 yuan / ton barrel content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

Ningbo Haorui Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11500 yuan / ton barrel content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

Jinan today he Chemical Co., Ltd. ex factory price 10600 yuan / ton purified water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. factory price: 10000 yuan / ton, purified water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: excellent; June 5, 2020

Jinan Pratt & Whitney Chemical Co., Ltd. factory price: 10500 yuan / ton net water content ≥%: 99.5; grade: superior; June 5, 2020

In the upstream, propylene oxide in the upstream of n-propanol was stable after the market fluctuation in May, and the overall increase was still obvious, with a monthly increase of 12.55% and a monthly amplitude of 26.61%. At the beginning of June, although the market fluctuated slightly, the overall trend in May and June still had a positive impact on the n-propanol market.

In the downstream, the market of n-Propyl Acetate downstream of n-propanol was relatively stable as a whole, and the manufacturer’s quotation was mainly stable. On the 3rd and 4th, some dealers made a small downward adjustment for the smooth delivery quotation, which had little impact on the overall market trend.

According to the prediction of the data division of the business association, at present, many favorable factors still exist in the n-propanol market. It is expected that in the first ten days of June, when the overall market is high and strong, and the inventory is low, the market will rise again.

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the domestic aggregate MDI market is mainly consolidated. At the beginning of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market is 12250 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price of the domestic aggregate MDI market is 12300 yuan / ton, up 0.41% in the week. The price is 7.19% higher than that of the same period last month and 7.34% lower than that of the same period last year.

This week, the MDI market quotation was firm and maintained, and the negotiation was slightly light. Kostrong’s guidance price is stable this week, and the task volume will not be assessed; the guidance price of Ryanair factory rises, with limited supply. After the resumption of production of a plant in Shanghai or the extension to the middle of June, the main factories in the North began to implement weekly settlement this week. The attitude of suppliers is the same, and the market continues to be strong. In the trade market, the agent’s quotation is firm and the delivery is cautious; the middleman’s profit margin can still hear the transaction price lower than the mainstream price. Recently, affected by the lower price of us gold market, the post market mentality is slightly different. Distribution downstream demand side inquiry buy light, just need small order mainly. However, the main downstream areas such as refrigerators, automobiles and plates are slowly improving, which will drive the distribution market in the later stage.

Raw materials, pure benzene: this week, the price of pure benzene fell in the north and rose in the south. As of Thursday, June 4, the main negotiation in East China was around 3550 yuan / ton, up 110 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday, and that in Shandong was around 3600 yuan / ton, down 50 yuan / ton compared with last Thursday.

Aniline: the aniline Market is stable in the week. From the perspective of raw materials, the price of Shandong hydrogenated benzene is higher driven by the rise of crude benzene. The average bidding price of pure benzene in Jinling week is 3530 yuan / ton, 150 yuan / ton higher than last week, and the cost support is stronger. Jinling and Huatai aniline plants in Shandong Province both reduced their load by half, with East China shipping as the main source. The sales volume is expected to decrease this month compared with last month. As a result, aniline market supply decreased. Downstream just need to take goods, aniline enterprises stable shipment, price stable operation.

Downstream, spandex, the current market trend of spandex is flat, the supply of manufacturers is stable, the industry starts 80% up, high-level operation. The cost side support performance is average, the downstream terminal market is not in high mood to receive orders, and the actual transaction volume is discussed in detail. In Jiangsu and Zhejiang area, the reference for 20d spandex mainstream negotiation is 36000-37000 yuan / ton; the reference for 30d spandex mainstream negotiation is 34000-35000 yuan / ton; the reference for 40d spandex mainstream negotiation is 28500-30000 yuan / ton, and the actual transaction details are discussed.

MDI analysts predict that the short-term domestic MDI market quotation will continue to be firm, waiting for the weekly manufacturer price guidance and the manufacturer’s supply.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of pure benzene on May 1 was 2750-3400 yuan / ton (average price 3020 yuan / ton), and on May 31, the price of pure benzene on May 31 was 3450-3850 yuan / ton (average price 3600 yuan / ton), up 580 yuan / ton from May 1, up 19.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 28 to 31, with a price of 3600 yuan / ton; the lowest price is from May 2 to 5, with a price difference of 640 yuan / ton, with a price of 2960 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

1. Crude oil: in May, international oil prices were generally good. Oil producing countries continued to push forward production reduction activities, and the demand for crude oil and refined oil rose to a certain extent. However, the market is still in a state of oscillation, and the uncertainty of trade relations affects the oil price. Compared with April 30, Brent oil price increased by 14.71 USD / barrel, or 74.78%; WTI oil price increased by 13.99 USD / barrel, or 64.03%. Compared with December 31, 2019, Brent oil price decreased by 32.385 USD / barrel, or 48.51%; WTI oil price decreased by 24.93 USD / barrel, or 41.02%.

2. Products: Sinopec raised the listing price of pure benzene five times this month, with a total increase of 700 yuan / ton to 3500 yuan / ton. This month, the pure benzene market was mainly driven by crude oil and positive external market. With the recovery of public health events, foreign blockade measures have been gradually relaxed, and crude oil chemicals market has picked up. But at present, the domestic price is higher than the import price, which restrains the sharp rise of domestic pure benzene price.

3. Outer disk: boosted by the favorable crude oil, the outer disk oscillated higher in May. In May, South Korea’s import of pure benzene rose by 74.33 USD / ton, or 22.96%; East China’s import of pure benzene rose by 66 USD / ton, or 19.35%.

4. Downstream: styrene: the price of styrene in Shandong was 5100 yuan / ton on May 1, 5416.67 yuan / ton on May 29, up 6.21% this month. The highest price of this month is from May 19 to 24, with a price of 5500 yuan / ton. At present, the rise of styrene is mainly affected by crude oil, and the actual spot shipments are relatively small.

Aniline: the price of aniline was 4800 yuan / ton on May 1, 4466.67 yuan / ton on May 29, down 6.94% this month. Aniline fell twice this month, while the rest remained stable. The MDI and auxiliary operating rate in the downstream of aniline are still low, and the demand for aniline is insufficient.

3、 Future forecast

1. Crude oil: Saudi Arabia and other OPEC producing countries are considering extending the cut to the end of 2020. OPEC will hold another meeting on June 10 to continue to pay attention to the production reduction meeting. And oil price is not only affected by supply and demand, but also by economic constraints. Uncertainty in trade relations could trigger oil price shocks.

2. Market: it is heard that the turnover of pure benzene is 3600 yuan / ton in May, 3680-3700 yuan / ton in June, 3760 yuan / ton in July and 3800 yuan / ton in August. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has increased, the pressure on supply and demand has increased, or the pure benzene market has been affected.

In the long run, the market price of pure benzene will continue to rise, but the short-term oscillation still exists.

The international crude oil is relatively high, the gasoline market demand is good, the market price is rising, and the domestic MTBE market follows the gasoline market up. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE this weekend was 3666 yuan / ton, 1.85% higher than that of last week.

With the further increase of temperature in summer, gasoline terminal consumption will still perform vigorously. Meanwhile, in June, there will be more orders for the main gasoline purchased from outside. The gasoline delivery of refineries will be smooth, the raw material procurement of middlemen will be more active, and the overall transaction atmosphere of MTBE market will perform well, which will push the manufacturers up actively. However, in the middle of the week, there was a part of low-priced trade source impact on the market, and then MTBE market price rebounded upward again.

Since next week, there will be cooling weather in the north and south, and gasoline demand will fall for a short time, which is expected to drive the MTBE market price down for a short time.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose slightly in May. By the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 2330 yuan / ton, 1.3% higher than 2300 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 18.47% year on year.

In May, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate market rose slightly, the operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ devices was stable, and the supply of goods on the site was normal in the near future. Some manufacturers reported that the inquiry increased, and the market price on the site rose slightly. In the near future, the market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers’ shipment is general, and the downstream is purchased on demand. In the near future, the trend of the downstream nitro compound fertilizer is stable. The domestic downstream civil explosive industry still stops production a lot, the domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers start work normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate rises slightly. Up to now, the mainstream of negotiation in Shaanxi is 2200-2400 yuan / ton, that in Shandong is 2000-2200 yuan / ton, and that in Hebei is 2400-2700 yuan / ton.

In May, the price of concentrated nitric acid in China was slightly lower, and the average price of nitric acid at the end of the month was 1433.33 yuan / ton, down 2.27%. Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 1400 yuan / ton; Anhui Jinhe offers 1350 yuan / ton; Shandong helitai offers 1700 yuan / ton. Anhui Aodeli offers 1400 yuan / ton; Wenshui County synthetic chemical offers 1580 yuan / ton. In the near future, the operation of domestic maintenance devices is stable, the market supply of concentrated nitric acid is sufficient, and the situation of goods in the field is general. In May, the price of nitric acid in the market fell slightly, and the price of raw material nitric acid fell, which is the negative impact of the market of ammonium nitrate, and the price increase of ammonium nitrate is limited.

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia Market in the upper reaches continued the market of last month and continued to fluctuate downward. According to the monitoring of the business association, since May, for example, in Shandong Province, the price of liquid ammonia has dropped by 5%. The continuous downward trend of the price of liquid ammonia is mainly due to the result of the game between high inventory and low demand. Under the pressure of the manufacturers, the factory price has been lowered repeatedly, and the market offers have been lower. The range is in the range of 200-400 yuan / ton. Near the end of the month, the market offer is in the range of 2500-2700 yuan / ton. Most of the liquid ammonia is purchased on demand. At present, the supply and demand of the market is in the balance stage, and the market price of liquid ammonia is low. Due to the fall of the upstream market price of liquid ammonia, the market price of ammonium nitrate is slightly higher.

In the near future, the demand of the downstream civil explosive industry is general, and the market demand for ammonium nitrate is normal. In addition, the market price of raw material liquid ammonia has fallen, and the market price of ammonium nitrate has lost certain cost support. Ammonium nitrate analysts of business association think that the market price of ammonium nitrate may be slightly lower in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline in Shandong fell this week, while the price in other regions remained stable. On May 22, the price of aniline in Shandong was 4400-4490 yuan / ton, while that in East China was 4600-4820 yuan / ton, down 3.6% from last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Raw materials: this week’s price of pure benzene continued to shock consolidation. In the week, Sinopec experienced two times of increase in the price of pure benzene, with a total increase of 250 yuan / ton to 3350 yuan / ton, reducing the price difference with the local refining. Sinopec’s increase in the price of pure benzene has played a positive role in supporting the domestic price of pure benzene. But this week’s pure benzene negotiation is weak, the spot price of pure benzene is lower, and the price in the far month is higher. This week, pure benzene port inventory went up, tank capacity was tight. On May 17, the listing price of pure benzene was 3100-3600 yuan / ton (average 3310 yuan / ton); on this Sunday (May 24), the listing price of pure benzene was 3300-3750 yuan / ton (average 3460 yuan / ton), up 4.53% from last week.

The price of nitric acid is stable this week, and the production price in East China is 1433.33 yuan / ton.

Product: the price of aniline Market was stable in the early stage of this week. On Thursday, the price of Jinling aniline was reduced by 200 yuan / ton, while that of Shandong aniline Market was down. The downstream demand is not high, and the enterprise’s shipment is deadlocked.

3、 Future expectation

Raw materials: the shift of crude oil center of gravity and the profit level of downstream products of pure benzene are acceptable, which are favorable for the existence of support; however, the high inventory of the port brings negative effects. It is expected that the pure benzene market will continue to fluctuate in the short term.

The downstream demand recovered slowly, and aniline is expected to maintain weak stability in the short term.

1、 Price trend chart of nitric acid Market

Nitric acid price curve

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the average price of nitric acid in East China this week was 1433 yuan / ton, with stable quotation.

2、 Market analysis

Products: the price of concentrated nitric acid is weak, the quotation of Jiangsu Hongze Yinzhu Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1250-1300 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the quotation of Wenshui Synthetic Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1580 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the quotation of Anhui Jinhe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1300-1350 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the quotation of Shandong helitai Chemical Co., Ltd. is 1700 yuan / ton, the same as last week; the demand of nitric acid market is light and stable.

Industry chain: upstream liquid ammonia, domestic liquid ammonia weak downward this week; downstream aniline, aniline price drop this week; TDI slightly lower this week.

3、 Future forecast

Nitric acid analysts predict that negative pressure, nitric acid price weak run.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 22, the average price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 4800.00 yuan / ton, and the recent domestic DMF operation was weak.

2、 Market analysis

Products: Recently, domestic DMF is in weak operation. Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. offers 4450 yuan / ton, Zhangqiu daily and monthly 4550 yuan / ton, Hualu Hengsheng 5400 yuan / ton. The shutdown of Jiangshan plant in Zhejiang Province has some favorable effects on the DMF market. The firm price intention of the factory is obvious, the downstream demand is general. There is a certain pressure on the high level of DMF inventory, and the factory actively delivers goods, but the transaction atmosphere is general.

Industry chain: the upstream methanol manufacturers’ quotation is stable based on the execution of contract orders, and the domestic methanol market is mainly fluctuating in a short period of time. At present, the mainstream quotation of methanol is 1630-1690 yuan / ton.

Industry: on May 21, the chemical industry index was 643, up 1 point from yesterday, down 36.71% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 7.53% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

3、 Future forecast

DMF analysts believe that the DMF market is expected to be weak in the short term. (the above prices are provided by major DMF manufacturers across the country and analyzed by business DMF analysts. For reference only, please contact the relevant manufacturers for more details.)

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of calcium carbide SG5), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 18 was 5830 yuan / ton, 0.82% higher than the previous day, and 17.3% lower than the same period last year. On May 18, the PVC commodity index was 73.88, up 0.61 points from yesterday, down 26.12% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 26.79% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Products: PVC futures rose on the 18th, driving the spot market to continue to soar, but the trend has slowed down compared with the previous gains. Late last week, PVC futures fell, some enterprises in the spot market cautiously recalled, in addition to the high price of PVC in the early stage, and limited terminal receiving capacity, so the momentum of PVC market continued to rise sharply was insufficient, and most enterprises kept a stable wait-and-see, digesting the early gains. At present, the domestic terminal demand recovers and the real estate industry ushers in the peak season. The operation rate of PVC pipe enterprises has been significantly improved and the demand has increased. Other downstream markets are still in the process of slowly improving, especially the export market is recovering slowly with few orders. As a whole, the demand side focuses on the domestic market. The domestic PVC inventory has decreased, the supply of goods in South China is tight, there is a phenomenon of looting, the inventory in other regions is still high, the terminal multi-dimensional system just needs, and the transaction atmosphere has improved. At present, it is still in the period of maintenance of production enterprises, and the sales pressure of manufacturers is not great. In addition, the recent increase of calcium carbide at the raw material end, PVC enterprises’ strong price sentiment is high, and the market is getting better. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 18, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5500-5950 yuan / ton.

Futures: on 18th, pvcv2009 contract concussed higher, closing at 5885 yuan / ton, which was + 100 yuan compared with the previous trading day; trading volume was 163501, – 18710; positions were 218482, + 3934, basis – 5 yuan, + 65 yuan; 9-1 price difference was 50 yuan, + 0 yuan.

Industry chain: European and American stock markets fell recently, and there are still many challenges in the oil market in the later period, and the support for ethylene is not clear, so the data analysts of the business agency expect that the ethylene price will keep a narrow range consolidation in the future. Last week, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in Northwest China rose slightly: oveganone’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2500 yuan / ton, 120 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; Shaanxi coal industry’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend was 2350 yuan / ton, 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; China United Inner Mongolia’s quotation for calcium carbide this week was 2330 yuan / ton, temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Xingping Ningxia’s quotation for calcium carbide this weekend It is 2450 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week. The future market forecasts that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest may rise slightly in late May.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 19th week of 2020 (5.11-5.15), there are 5 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity price in rubber and plastic plate, the top three commodities are PC (4.88%), PVC (1.36%) and PA6 (1.19%). There are 8 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were PP (fiber) (- 4.29%), PP (drawing) (- 3.67%) and HDPE (- 2.76%). This week’s average was – 0.45%.

3、 Future forecast

PVC analysts of the business club believe that: at present, the macro-economy has recovered, the terminal demand has gradually recovered, PVC futures trading is active, and many positive factors such as the increase of raw material end have boosted, and PVC market trend is expected to be strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong Province rose slightly this week, with the quotation rising 0.21% from 1620.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 1623.33 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 18.22% year on year. Overall, the urea market rose slightly this week, with the urea commodity index at 75.04 on May 15.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the main urea factory price in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation of Yangmei plain urea this week is 1630 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable; Shandong Ruixing urea this weekend is 1600 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; Mingshui chemical urea this weekend is 1640 yuan / ton, which is 10 yuan / ton higher than the beginning of the week.

Market demand: the agricultural demand is low, and the enthusiasm for goods preparation is weak; the industrial demand is general, and the procurement of downstream compound fertilizer and plate enterprises is cautious, and most of them are used as they are purchased. Supply side: at present, due to the small amount of goods delivered from other provinces in Shandong Province, the new orders of enterprises in Shandong Province have improved, and the willingness of enterprises to hold up prices has increased. The short-term urea market is expected to rise slightly.

International aspect: on May 8, Indian bidding results announced that 14 enterprises participated in the bidding, with a total bidding volume of 2.393 million tons, and the east coast price of 231.90 USD / ton CFR. The price converted to the port is about 1530 yuan / ton, so the possibility of domestic supply is low.

Industry chain: the upstream urea products in this week seem to have declined as a whole: the price of natural gas has declined, with the quotation dropping from 2863.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 2750.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 3.96%, down 22.39% compared with the same period of last year; the price of liquid ammonia in this week is temporarily stable, with the quotation of 3116.67 yuan / ton, down 9.75% compared with the same period of last year. In general, the urea cost support in this week is weak. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, with a price of 5066.67 yuan / ton. The downstream rubber plate factory had a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, which had a positive impact on the price of urea.

3、 Future forecast

In late May, the urea market in Shandong Province was mainly up slightly. Urea analysts of business association believe that at present, agricultural demand is weak, downstream industry has a good enthusiasm for urea procurement, and it is expected that the short-term urea market will fluctuate slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the weak and stable operation of domestic soda ash this week is mainly. The average domestic market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week in East China is about 1363.33 yuan / ton. On April 25, the light soda ash commodity index was 75.04, flat with yesterday, down 36.33% from 117.86 (2017-11-21), the highest point in the cycle, and up 18.83% from 63.15, the lowest point on November 18, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, domestic soda price is mainly weak and stable. In East China, the market of soda ash is stable, the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1200-1380 yuan / ton, the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1300-1400 yuan / ton, the market transaction is general, and it is expected that the price of soda ash will be weak in the short term. The consolidation market of soda ash in Central China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1150-1250 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1250-1350 yuan / ton. The downstream demand is poor. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The market price of soda ash consolidation in North China is running. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1300-1450 yuan / ton, and the mainstream market price of heavy soda ash is 1450-1600 yuan / ton. The market transaction is general. It is expected that the price of soda ash will be more consolidated in the short term. The average operating rate of domestic soda ash manufacturers is about 80%.

In terms of demand: the domestic soda ash market is in overall consolidation operation, and the phenomenon of supply exceeding demand continues. The total information of the industry is still more than 1.6 million. The overall market atmosphere of soda ash is not good, and the downstream market transaction follow-up is weak. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 18th week of 2020 (5.4-5.8), there are 3 kinds of commodities rising and falling in the price list of chlor alkali industry, 2 kinds of commodities falling and 0 kinds of commodities rising and falling. The main commodities rising were hydrochloric acid (5.08%), PVC (4.32%), calcium carbide (0.72%); the main commodities falling were light soda ash (- 4.66%), caustic soda (- 3.59%). This week’s average was 0.37%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the soda ash analyst of business association, the domestic soda ash market atmosphere is flat and the transaction is general, and the overall pressure on enterprise inventory is still large. Although some manufacturers plan to shut down for maintenance in May, due to the high inventory and consumption process of the industry as a whole, it is comprehensively expected that the consolidation and operation of soda ash will be dominated in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large list, the market price of propylene (Shandong) in China rose steadily in the first ten days of May, with the first ten days price of 5936 yuan / ton, and the last ten days price of 6264 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.51%.

2、 Analysis and comment

Product: last month, Shandong propylene price soared and plummeted, and then remained stable again, and the market was stable. During the May 1st period, the price of propylene slightly increased by about 50 yuan / ton. On the 6th, the price increased by 100 yuan / ton again. On the 7th, 8th and 9th, the price increased by 50 yuan / ton continuously every day. On the 10th, some enterprises continued to increase by 50 yuan / ton. Now, the market transaction is between 6200-6400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is between 6200-6250 yuan / ton. Now propylene inventory pressure is not big, but foreign propylene may increase.

Industry chain: affected by the international situation, the international crude oil price rose significantly at the end of last week. Now, the crude oil still rose, but the trend slowed down. Influenced by the international events on August 8, the crude oil rose significantly again, which has a certain positive impact on the future market of propylene.

Under the influence of public health events, the modified special material in PP was melt blown cloth material, and the price rose sharply in the early stage. At present, PP futures have returned to rationality. In the first ten days, PP spot has stepped up, with a 10 day increase of 3.30%, which has little impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, acrylic acid market declined, falling 5.53% in ten days, slightly negative impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, propylene oxide was up in shock, up 4.45% in ten days, which had a little positive impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, epichlorohydrin increased slightly after the decline, with a ten day drop of 0.66% and a ten day amplitude of 1.35%, which had little effect on propylene.

In the first ten days, the domestic price of n-butanol continued to rise, with an increase of 4.03% in ten days, which had a slight positive impact on propylene.

In the first ten days, octanol market also fluctuated upward, up 4.72% in ten days, which also had a small positive impact on propylene.

Affected by the epidemic situation, the isopropanol market, as one of the raw materials of foreign disinfectants, has finally stopped rising and falling since the end of last month. After falling in the first ten days of this month, the market has remained stable, falling by 7.86% in ten days and 8.93% in ten days, which may have a negative impact on propylene.

Phenol Market in Shandong Province rose sharply in the first ten days, up 11.45% in ten days, which had a significant positive impact on propylene.

The acetone market in Shandong also rose sharply in the first ten days, with an increase of 9.47%, which also had a significant positive impact on propylene.

3、 Future forecast

According to the propylene analyst of the chemical branch of business society, on the whole, the international crude oil market has a positive support, and the price has been rising for many times, which has a certain supporting effect on propylene. While the downstream market is mostly rational, but the operating rate slightly increased, isopropanol market continued to decline, phenol and acetone market rose significantly. The current inventory pressure is not big, but external propylene may increase, and it is expected that the price of propylene will increase slightly in recent days.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business association, as of May 9, the average price of domestic rubber grade and high-quality white carbon black is 4566.67 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of white carbon black is relatively stable, and the current mainstream quotation range is 4500-5000 yuan / ton.

market analysis

Products: domestic rubber grade superior white carbon black maintains stable operation, downstream just need to purchase, buy as needed, according to the actual order quantity, the merchants actively give orders and actively make profits, with the relief of public events, the shipment is smooth, the inventory is general, and the turnover is limited. At present, Shandong Lihua new materials Co., Ltd. offers 4200 / T rubber grade superior products, Shandong Shouguang Changtai micro nano factory rubber The price of rubber grade superior products is 5000 yuan / ton, and that of rubber grade superior products of Boai Xiangsheng silicon powder Co., Ltd. is 4500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: upstream hydrochloric acid, domestic mainstream hydrochloric acid factory price is temporarily stable, Dezhou Maihua quotation is 160 yuan / ton, Jinan Yuanfei quotation is 200 yuan / ton, Shanxi Wenshui quotation is 230 yuan / ton, Dezhou Shihua quotation is 250 yuan / ton, Taiyuan kunsheng quotation is 420 yuan / ton.

Industry: on May 8, the chemical industry index was 629, up 3 points from yesterday, down 38.09% from 1016 (2012-03-13), and up 5.18% from 598, the lowest point on April 8, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-12-01 to now)

Future forecast

According to the white carbon black analyst of business agency, the domestic rubber grade and superior white carbon black will maintain stable operation in the short term. (the above prices are provided by the major manufacturers of silica all over the country and analyzed by the business silica analysts for reference only. For more details, please contact the relevant manufacturers for consultation.)

According to statistics, the price of phthalic anhydride rebounded and rose in China. As of May 7, the price of phthalic anhydride from o-phthalic anhydride was 4750 yuan / ton. The price of phthalic anhydride in China rose slightly, the demand of plasticizer industry was normal, and the market of phthalic anhydride rebounded.

In recent years, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has increased slightly, the demand of phthalic anhydride market is normal, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is average. However, the rise of crude oil price has boosted domestic petrochemical products, and the price of phthalic anhydride market has rebounded. The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is normal, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the site is more than 60%, the spot supply of domestic phthalic anhydride is normal, the procurement of downstream plasticizer industry is general, the market price of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is general, and the market price of phthalic anhydride is high. As of July 7, the market price of phthalic anhydride in East China rose, but the high-end transactions in the market were blocked. The main flow of the negotiation of neighboring method sources in East China was 4800-5100 yuan / ton, and that of naphthalene method sources was 4400-4600 yuan / ton. The main flow of the quotation in the phthalic anhydride market in North China was 4700-5000 yuan / ton, and the wait-and-see mentality in the phthalic anhydride market was still there. The market price of phthalic anhydride was general, and the price of phthalic anhydride rose slightly.

In the near future, the execution price of domestic phthalic anhydride upstream product Sinopec is 4000 yuan / ton. The import phthalic acid Market in port area is stable and stable temporarily. In the near future, the port phthalic acid market is general and the external price of phthalic anhydride is stable temporarily. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation and detailed discussion. Affected by the fluctuation of upstream raw material phthalic acid price, the price increase of phthalic anhydride market is limited.

The downstream DOP market price is higher, the price of isooctanol is warmer and higher, the cost of DOP raw materials is higher, DOP enterprises operate at low load, and DOP manufacturers stock sales. The price of DOP increased, the equipment of PVC enterprises started to work normally, and the enthusiasm of customers for purchasing was temporarily stable. The price of plasticizer is rising. The market price of DOP is about 6500-6700 yuan / ton. The market price of plasticizer is generally active, high-speed charges are increased, and logistics and transportation costs are increased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will rise slightly in the later period, supported by favorable downstream prices.

Aluminum market trend in April

According to the data of business agency, as of April 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12813.33 yuan / ton, up 11.16% from 11526.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month (April 1).

The first quarter surplus hit a slump

According to the data of business agency, as of March 30, the average market price of domestic aluminum ingots was 12793.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 20.98% compared with 14553.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year (January 1), and 11230 yuan / ton compared with the average market price of the year (March 23), a decrease of 22.84%.

After the year, aluminum price plummeted, once falling below the industry average cost price. At present, the weighted cost of domestic electrolytic aluminum production is about 11800-12000 yuan / ton. (Rough weighted estimation, 1.93 tons of alumina, 0.48 tons of anode carbon block, 0.02 tons of aluminum fluoride, 0.01 tons of cryolite and 13500 degrees of power consumption per ton of aluminum)

Reasons for the collapse of Fundamentals:

1. Oversupply of global raw aluminum market from January to February

According to the monthly report data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on Wednesday (April 22), there is a supply surplus of 684000 tons in the global primary aluminum market from January to February 2020, and 492000 tons in 2019.

According to the data from January to February 2020, the global primary aluminum production increased by 8% over the same period of last year. Although the global demand for raw aluminum from January to February 2020 is 10.4 million tons, an increase of 411000 tons compared with the same period in 2019.

2. Imbalance of domestic electrolytic aluminum supply and demand in the first quarter

From January to March 2020, China’s total production of electrolytic aluminum is 8.976 million tons, an increase of 4% year on year; the consumption of domestic electrolytic aluminum in the same period is 7.55 million tons, a decrease of 9% year on year.

In March, the output of electrolytic aluminum in China was 3.036 million tons, an increase of 1.9% year on year; among them, the output of metallurgical grade alumina was 5.434 million tons, and the daily average output of metallurgical grade alumina was 175300 tons, a decrease of 1.75% year on year.

3. Export volume of electrolytic aluminum decreased sharply in the first quarter

From January to March 2020, the export of unwrought aluminum and aluminum products reached 1.187 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 17.5%. However, the export of raw alumina increased sharply. It is reported that the total export of alumina in the first quarter was 690000 tons, an increase of 433% year on year.

Production reduction, consumption rebound aluminum price out of the trough in April

In late March, the number of domestic centralized production reduction and maintenance enterprises began to increase, and some manufacturers avoided large losses through production reduction, shutdown and maintenance; in April, the price of electrolytic aluminum began to rebound, on the one hand, some new domestic production capacity was willing to reduce, and the time was slightly delayed; on the other hand, the impact of foreign epidemic was large, and some foreign aluminum enterprises were expected to strengthen production reduction.

The low price of aluminum ingots also ushered in a small peak of market consumption, and the inventory of aluminum ingots and rods fell. As of April 23, the social inventory of aluminum ingots decreased by 82000 tons to 1354000 tons compared with last Monday; the social inventory of 6063 aluminum ingots in Foshan, Wuxi, Nanchang, Changzhou and Huzhou decreased by 22500 tons compared with last week.

Future forecast

According to the historical price trend, the current price is not high. Although the price of raw materials in the industrial chain moves down synchronously, the cost support is still strong. In the second quarter, the domestic demand is expected to turn warm. In the later period, it is expected that the operation will be mainly stable and strong. It is expected that the operation will fluctuate in the range of 12500-13500 in May.

Recent influencing factors of aluminum price:

 
1. Policy information

Yunnan collection and storage expectation & real estate completion cycle and wire and cable industry are supported by policies.

2. Domestic downstream

Consumption of domestic automobile and home appliance industry.

3. Aluminum export

Wait and see the development of epidemic situation abroad.

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid continued to decline this week. As of the end of the week, the price was 10010 yuan / ton, down 5.48% from 10590 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 4.52% year on year.

Products: this week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid continued to decline. In the near future, the on-site manufacturers’ delivery situation was not good, the domestic manufacturers’ equipment operation was stable, the domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid was sufficient, the downstream demand was low, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline. In the near future, the price of raw material fluorite fell, the price of hydrofluoric acid market was affected to some extent, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in China fell. By the end of the week, the South China The mainstream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiation is 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. In recent years, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. In recent years, the demand of downstream refrigerant industry is poor. The downstream refrigerant industry has strong resistance to high price raw materials. In addition, the downstream demand falls, the price of hydrofluoric acid market decreases, and the price of hydrofluoric acid Market continues to decline.

Industry chain: the price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid fell this week. By the end of the week, the factory price of fluorite was 2777.78 yuan / ton. The supply of domestic fluorite was sufficient, and the price trend of fluorite fell by 3.47%. The fall in the upstream cost price had a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market, and the affected price of hydrofluoric acid market fell. In recent years, the sales of the automobile industry has been in a downturn, and the market trend of downstream refrigerants of the terminal is poor. The demand for refrigerants continues to decline. In addition, due to the impact of international health events, the export has been greatly reduced, the domestic R22 supply is sufficient, the market price trend of domestic R22 refrigerants has dropped, the starting load of the manufacturer’s production units is still not high, the market supply of goods is normal, and the downstream air-conditioning manufacturers There are a lot of parking, little change in demand, coupled with the impact of foreign public health events, the export is blocked, the transaction center moves down, and the market is weak. The price mainstream of domestic large enterprises is 15000-18000 yuan / ton. The price trend of R134a market in China is declining, and the unit operation rate of production enterprises remains low. At present, the downstream operation is not high, and the demand for R134a is cold. In the near future, the procurement of downstream industry is not active, and the price drops slightly. The downstream demand is poor, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is declining.

Industry: this week, the upstream raw material fluorite and hydrofluoric acid market has sufficient spot supply. In addition, the downstream refrigerant industry is not active in purchasing, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to fall.

In the near future, the operating rate of domestic refrigerant units is at a low level. For the demand of hydrofluoric acid market, the demand for hydrofluoric acid is purchased on demand. The spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient in the field. In addition, the market price of raw material fluorite falls in the near future. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid in the business agency, thinks that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may continue to fall next week.