According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has continued to rise in recent days (4.1-4.16). On April 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7930 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62% from 7580 yuan/ton on the first day.

The high volatility of international crude oil prices provides some support for the cost of mixing xylene

Recently (4.1-4.16), under the resonance of multiple factors, the international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of April 16th, WTI05 contract settlement is $85.36 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $90.02 per barrel. The high volatility of Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $979 to $980 per ton as of April 16th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly decreases, supply pressure slightly alleviates

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure remains at a high level. It is understood that as of April 11th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 79000 tons, which continued to decline compared to the inventory at the end of March.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the necessary support for mixed xylene still exists

The prices for parking and maintenance of some domestic devices have been adjusted to a high level, and as of April 15th, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 780%. The PX price in the Asian outer market continues to rise, providing some support for the domestic market. As of April 15th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1030 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1055 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still plans for equipment maintenance in May and June in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply is expected to provide some support for the mixed xylene market.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the mixed xylene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still operating above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that mixed xylene prices will still have strong support in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, in the short term, the international crude oil market will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; Downstream PX production has slightly decreased, but overall there is still support, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and mixed blending industries is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

Last week (April 8-14, 2024), downstream weakness and lack of positive news support in the market led to a downward trend in the viscose short fiber market. A new round of prices was introduced by major manufacturers, and prices from different manufacturers were lowered to varying degrees, causing the price center of the viscose short fiber market to shift downwards. The market for raw material and main material dissolved pulp remains stable, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market continues to be weak. The sulfuric acid market is partially pushed forward, and the cost support for the adhesive short fiber market is limited; Downstream yarn factories still mainly consume early inventory and replenish small quantities as needed. The demand side has shown weak performance, and downstream demand has not shown a significant improvement. Real transactions on the market are limited, and there is a lack of positive news support in the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of viscose short fibers declined last week (April 8-14, 2024). As of March 14th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fibers is 13320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week’s price, with a weekly decrease of 1.33%.

In terms of cost, the market price of raw material dissolved pulp remains stable, with imported broadleaf dissolved pulp priced at around 880 US dollars per ton and needle leaf dissolved pulp priced at around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7600 yuan/ton. The price center of the auxiliary material liquid alkali market has shifted downwards, while the price of sulfuric acid market has slightly increased. The cost performance is average, and the average production cost of viscose short fibers has decreased.

In terms of supply: Last week (April 8-14, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained around 79.21%, with a slight decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, adhesive short fiber manufacturers had to shut down their equipment for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply. There is currently no inventory pressure on the site.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, and the price trend is downward. Downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement is maintained. The demand side has constraints on the raw material market from bottom to top.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (April 8-14, 2024), downstream cotton yarn operated weakly and steadily, with the market mainly executing orders. The overall price slightly declined, and some yarn factories saw partial price declines in their quotations. Overall shipments were average, inventory was basically maintained, and demand side performance was weak. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and actual transactions on the market are limited. As of April 14th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17525 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.43%.

Future Market Forecast:

The trend of the upstream raw material market is not good, and the cost support is weakened. Although the inventory of manufacturers is not high, the demand side performance is weak, with primary demand for goods and average trading activity on the market. Business Society analysts predict that the market for viscose short fibers will remain stable in the short term, and prices may slightly increase. The market for artificial cotton yarn will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the nitrile rubber market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from 15450 yuan/ton on the 1st. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have risen, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support it; Downstream production has declined, resulting in weak demand for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; The pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber has been relieved. As of April 15th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17200 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of butadiene was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52% from 11525 yuan/ton on the 1st; As of April 15th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10362 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.02% compared to the price of 9962 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the production of nitrile rubber plants in China has declined. There are still plans to shut down devices from April to July in the later stage.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained around 5.5%, while the production of insulation foam has slightly decreased to around 5.5%. Downstream inquiries about nitrile rubber are small, and market transactions are light. The overall demand for nitrile rubber is weak.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the Business Society nitrile rubber index chart shows that from the beginning of the year to early April, the 7-day moving average of the nitrile rubber index continued to rise above the 30 day moving average, and at this time, the overall spot market prices showed an upward trend; Since mid April, the 7-day moving average has gradually fallen below the 30 day moving average, and the spot price of nitrile rubber has slightly decreased; From a technical perspective, nitrile rubber is currently breaking the 30 day support line, and there is a high probability of a downward trend in the later period.

From a fundamental perspective, Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the high cost of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber is supported by high prices; Downstream production is declining, inquiries are cautious, and the impact on nitrile rubber is bearish; The downward pressure on the supply of nitrile rubber has eased, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 8292 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.43% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9287 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 9312 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.27% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8475 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 8475 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

The price of polyethylene has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the bullish rise in crude oil, the cost side supported a slight increase in polyethylene. On the supply side, there are many domestic polyethylene plant shutdowns for maintenance, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. Petrochemical companies have slightly increased their prices, while traders have followed suit with a slight increase. In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand is improving, and factories will replenish inventory in an appropriate amount after the holiday, while sales are still acceptable. But there is a certain resistance to the continuously rising high priced supply, and downstream factories have weakened their purchasing intentions.

On April 12th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was opened at 8400 yuan and closed at 8369 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan. The highest price was 8408 yuan and the lowest was 8341 yuan, a decrease of 0.20%. This week, polyethylene futures showed a strong trend at the beginning of the week, which to some extent benefited the polyethylene spot market. Afterwards, the futures market weakened, weakening support for spot prices.

The maintenance of polyethylene equipment has increased, and the supply side is expected to decrease; The demand for plastic film began to weaken in late April, and the demand for greenhouse film is in the off-season; It is expected that polyethylene prices will mainly operate in a narrow range with limited upward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 11th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43620 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42316 yuan/ton. Since April, the lithium iron phosphate market has continued to recover, with upstream iron phosphate prices fluctuating mainly. This week, the price increased by 0.81%, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton, providing strong support for lithium iron phosphate on the cost side.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has been continuously rising. Since April, the market price of lithium iron phosphate has remained high and the trend has remained strong. The cost side price of lithium iron phosphate has strong support, and there is still support for lithium carbonate. As of April 11th, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to rise. Currently, the upstream dual raw material prices continue to rise, and the cost side support of lithium iron phosphate is strong. In addition, downstream demand continues to decrease. The purchasing atmosphere is good, and the negotiation focus remains high. There is no pressure on inventory. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly purchase in demand, and the factory operating rate is relatively high. Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly focus on production and sales. Today, the upstream price of lithium carbonate is mainly stable and strong, and lithium salt enterprises maintain a positive selling attitude. Due to recent market demand, Prices continue to rise, and companies have a clear willingness to hoard goods. Recently, the number of orders has significantly increased.

In terms of cost: March is the traditional spring plowing season, and due to the increase in demand for phosphate fertilizer, upstream phosphate prices have remained stable and strong. Phosphoric acid, as the main phosphorus element in iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, directly affects downstream prices at the cost end. The upstream iron ore prices have shown an upward trend, with an increase of up to 10% since early April. Under the continuous stimulation of cost pressure, the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate have passively risen. It is expected that strong support from the cost end will continue in the short term, driving up the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate.

In terms of demand: Currently, the production and sales of energy storage cells have rebounded recently, and the pressure of high inventory levels has been significantly alleviated in March. Recently, the leading lithium battery company, CATL, announced at the energy storage new product launch event that the Tianheng standard 20 foot containerized energy storage system will no longer cause a drop in the lifespan of the product’s lithium battery, achieving 15000 laboratory cycles. The large capacity of energy storage cells has sparked a large-scale boom, which will drive the continuous upgrading of the lithium battery industry to cope with more challenges.

In terms of production: According to statistics, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March was 164000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons or 32.3% compared to February. The production of iron phosphate was 121100 tons, a significant increase of 103% compared to the previous month and a significant increase of 75% compared to the same period last year. After the Qingming Festival, orders for lithium iron phosphate have significantly recovered, leading enterprises have rebounded in prices and considerable profits. Enterprises have continuously increased their production to meet the demand for downstream power vehicles. The full month production capacity in March has approached the high level of the same period last year. Currently, downstream demand is not decreasing, and upstream cost support is favorable. It is expected that production capacity will continue to increase in April.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Market and technical prediction: In the short term, the market price of lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue to rise

In the future market of lithium iron phosphate, there is a high possibility of an upward trend. Currently, spot prices continue to rise, and with the dual assistance of cost and demand, the upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is full of momentum. The commodity analysis system prediction model of Shengyishe shows that since March 1, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. At that time, the price of lithium iron phosphate in Shengyishe was in a continuous upward trend, and the daily moving average on April 6, 2024 has once again crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, it can be seen that the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. According to calculations on April 11, 2024, the possibility of market changes in the next 7 days is not significant. Therefore, it is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will continue to rise in the short.

In summary, as of April, the peak season of production and sales continues, and battery cell companies are accelerating their delivery speed, increasing their orders. New energy vehicle models continue to be launched, and iron lithium companies have full confidence in the future market. The demand for the power market is quite obvious, and the spring market is also gradually recovering. It is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate market will further increase.

The domestic acrylic acid market has shown a continuous upward trend in the past half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.99% compared to March 24th (acrylic acid reference price of 6262.50).

Cause analysis:

Supply side:

East China region: Main factory equipment maintenance, overall market supply and demand pattern tightening, supporting prices to rise.

Shandong region: At the end of March, some facilities resumed operation, but enterprises mainly executed pre orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and no pressure on the supply side to raise prices.

Overall, the price increase of acrylic acid in this stage is mainly supported by favorable factors such as supply side maintenance and tight spot prices.

On the demand side:

Recently, the downstream inquiry atmosphere has been active, but overall, it continues to be mainly based on demand procurement, with a high intention to replenish at low prices. Follow up on high priced raw materials is still cautious. Among them, the main downstream butyl acrylate reduces the load of the enterprise in a narrow range, and the terminal tape master roll and acrylic lotion factory just need to purchase. In general, the demand at this stage is generally supported by the acrylic market.

Cost side:

In March, the supply and demand game in the raw material propylene market resulted in a slight decrease in the price center. At the end of March, the price of propylene rebounded after falling to a low point, providing stronger support for the acrylic acid market. Since April, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated weakly with a narrow range, and the profit level of the acrylic acid market has improved. Overall, the current cost is still supported by the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

In the past half month, the acrylic acid market has shown a strong upward trend due to various factors such as reduced production and cost. In the later stage, there are expectations of individual devices restarting in the South China region, and the regional market supply may increase. However, the current supply side is operating without pressure, and the tight supply pattern on site is profound. Short term supply side support still exists. The utilization rate of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity may slightly increase, and terminal consumption is expected to support stable demand. In summary, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is mainly volatile. Downstream olefin factories have reduced their purchases of methanol from mainland China, and the purchasing sentiment in the mainland market is also average, with a focus on maintaining essential procurement. Coal prices currently have no support for the market, and both mainland and port sources are showing an increasing trend. However, traditional downstream and MTO consumption levels are expected to weaken, and the supply-demand gap in the industry is further expanding. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

In recent times, the methanol market has been fluctuating, and cost support is still acceptable. Enterprises are producing normally, while downstream suppliers are maintaining essential procurement. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly increase as the main players.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market saw a slight increase in March. As of March 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9937 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4.47% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, saw a slight decline in production, with weak support from demand for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production has steadily increased slightly, with a slight increase in the supply of acrylonitrile; The acrylonitrile market has slightly increased, with the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in East China ranging from 9600 to 10000 yuan/ton as of the 29th.

In March, the load of the acrylonitrile unit slightly increased, with the start of operation increasing from 6.2% at the beginning of the month to around 6.5%. The 452000 ton/year acrylonitrile unit of Jilin Petrochemical was reduced to 70% load operation by the end of February; Tianchen Qixiang’s 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant will restart at the end of February; Starting from the 18th, the 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile produced by Jihua (Jieyang) will be shut down for maintenance.

In March, the price of raw material propylene slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 29th, the domestic propylene price was 6790 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 1.17% from 6870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 29th, the domestic liquid ammonia price was 3323 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.65% from 2976 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month

Downstream demand for acrylonitrile is weakly supported. In March, the equipment load in the ABS industry slightly decreased, with the start of production dropping from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 6.3% at the end of the month; The nitrile rubber plant started construction steadily in March, and there is a maintenance plan for the enterprise plant in the later stage. The overall demand for acrylonitrile in March is stable, and may slightly decrease in the later stage; The overall production of acrylamide in March remained at a low level of around 4.6%; Overall, downstream demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that there is still pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile at present; The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support; In the face of weak demand support for acrylonitrile, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience narrow fluctuations in April.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. On March 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% from 7420 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

High international crude oil and foreign market prices provide support for mixed xylene production

In March, supply risks increased due to the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil prices rose, providing stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 28th, WTI05 contract settlement is $83.17 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.00 per barrel. The slight increase in the price of mixed xylene in Asia has supported the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $948 to $949 per ton as of March 29th.

Relative high level mixed xylene production requires support for xylene production

In March, international crude oil and PX prices remained high, providing support for the price of mixed xylene. As of March 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051-1053 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have fluctuated narrowly.

The production of phthalic anhydride is basically stable, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed production and weak support for mixed xylene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of the end of March, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.2.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased

The continued increase in mixed xylene port inventory has put pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of March 28th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 88000 tons, a decrease of about 12000 tons from late February.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

The xylene units of Hubei Jin’ao and Jinke Refinery were shut down for maintenance in March; Jiangsu Xinhai, Zhenghe Petrochemical and other facilities plan to shut down for maintenance in April, and there are still plans for maintenance in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased recently (3.18-3.27). On March 27th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from 7430 yuan/ton on March 18th.

The high volatility of international crude oil prices provides some support for the cost of mixing xylene

Recently (3.18-3.27), under the resonance of multiple factors, the international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 26th, WTI05 contract settlement is $81.62 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $85.63 per barrel. The high volatility of Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $952 to $953 per ton as of March 26th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly decreases, supply pressure slightly alleviates

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure remains at a high level. It is understood that as of March 22, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 96500 tons, which continued to decline slightly from 101000 tons on March 15.

High demand for xylene production supports mixed xylene production

There is sufficient domestic spot supply of xylene, and international crude oil prices rose and then fell within the week. PX external prices also rose and fell, with an overall downward trend. As of the 22nd, the closing prices in the Asian region were 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. However, the recent maintenance of naphthalene phthalic anhydride plants has not been as expected, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is mainly stable. As a result, the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of mid March, the operating rate of refineries nationwide is around 7.3.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the weak trend of polyaluminum chloride market this week is mainly consolidation. The solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China was mainly reported at around 1815 yuan/ton on the 18th, and around 1806.25 yuan/ton on the 25th, with a price drop of 0.48%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has basically returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid remains stable. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating normally and limited inventory. The average market price is 92.5 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has fallen this week. This week, domestic temperatures have rebounded, the heating season is coming to an end, market demand is weakening, and bearish sentiment on the market has increased. At present, there is still support on the cost side, but due to the sustained weakness in terminal demand and high market supply, the situation of oversupply is difficult to improve in the short term. The liquid factory is under pressure to ship, resulting in a concentrated decrease in liquid prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will remain stable, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will decline, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decline. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers have basically resumed normal production; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from March 15 to March 22, 2024, with a price increase of 7038.75 yuan/ton last week and 7258.75 yuan/ton this week, up 3.13%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures fell on March 21st. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.3%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.2%.

On March 15, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8700 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton..

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On March 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8508 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 8542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from last week and an increase of 18.22% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, downstream demand has performed well this week, and the expected improvement in demand for raw material pure benzene due to the restart of styrene plants has driven the pure benzene market in East China to heat up. However, in the middle of the week, the styrene market fell, dragging down the mentality of the industrial chain, and the pure benzene market followed a pullback. Over the weekend, there were reports of device maintenance in the downstream, which once again dragged down market sentiment. However, due to the tight supply of crude benzene, auction prices continued to rise this week. As a result, the ex factory prices in the main production areas of the hydrogenated benzene market only slightly decreased this week, with the current mainstream price ranging from 8300 to 8550 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the sixth round of reduction in the coke market has quickly landed, with a cumulative decrease of 600-660 yuan/ton. At present, coke enterprises are generally losing money, and actively limiting production continues to increase. The operating rate has dropped to around 65%, and crude benzene production has significantly declined. The overall supply is tight, and affected by the weak trend of the coal coke steel industry chain, the operating rate of coke enterprises is likely to remain low in the near future, and the supply of crude benzene will still be tight in the future. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been operating at a relatively stable rate recently, maintaining on-demand replenishment of crude benzene. However, the pure benzene industry chain has been weak this week, dragging down market sentiment. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been lowered by 150 yuan/ton within the week, resulting in high raw material prices and weak downstream demand. The hydrogenated benzene industry has a strong mentality of price pressure. In the absence of a significant favorable environment for supply and demand in the future, it is expected that there will still be a slight decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11666 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have weak quotations, and market transactions are mainly based on orders. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12000 yuan/ton. Industry insiders hold a wait-and-see attitude and focus on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The quotes from activated carbon manufacturers are weak, and the market lacks positive support. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market was operating weakly this week (March 11th to March 18th), with prices in the East China region dropping by 1.08% to 13700 yuan/ton on March 18th.

In terms of manganese ore, the overall performance of manganese ore this week was weak, with prices showing a downward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was average, but prices remained low, resulting in inconsistent performance at the port. This week, it was mainly affected by downstream production cuts, spot and market prices, with different types of ore experiencing a decline of 0.2-0.3 yuan/ton. Port profiteers still have a high willingness to ship. As of March 15th, Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated carbon is priced between 33.5-34 yuan/ton, Gabon’s is priced between 35-35.5 yuan/ton, and Australia’s block is priced below 36 yuan/ton. Although there is a strong willingness to ship, the overall transaction volume is relatively low. The mainstream price of southern manganese ore remains stable, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. Semi carbonated carbon is priced between 33.5-34 yuan/ton, Australia’s block is priced between 36-36.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon’s block is priced between 35-35.5 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively weak.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued its previous trend and continued to operate weakly. The mainstream market prices this week were concentrated at 12100-12200 yuan/ton, a further decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. After the holiday, the demand for electrolytic manganese in the market has been weak, and the spot market has maintained a weak operating trend. After January, with the resumption of work by enterprises, the operating rate has basically returned to pre holiday levels, and market supply has recovered. In terms of demand, several rounds of auctions conducted within the month have shown overall weak performance, which has also dragged down the mentality of the spot market. The overall downward pressure on prices remains strong. Under the mentality of supply-demand competition, it is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will remain weak in the short term due to the lack of demand support, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel recruitment guidance.

Related data:

This week, the silicon manganese market has been operating weakly, and the sentiment of rising prices for manganese ore on the cost side has weakened. Recently, spot retail trading has been poor, and some manufacturers have successively delivered orders to steel mills. However, due to steel mills reducing production, spot demand is average, and most manufacturers have silicon manganese inventory. Some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, the main production area, have relatively serious inventory accumulation compared to the previous period, resulting in a low price shipping sentiment. Some manufacturers in Ningxia continue to reduce and stop production, and the total production is relatively low. In the southern region, due to high costs, the expectation of manufacturers resuming production is poor. On the steel plant side, alloy procurement has been carried out one after another, and steel bidding prices have decreased month on month. Additionally, due to steel plant maintenance, silicon and manganese production has decreased month on month. On the futures side, the main manganese silicon contract this week was driven by black sentiment, and the price continued to decline. The market pattern remained unchanged, and the market broke new lows this week, reaching a low of 6116. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 5800-5950 yuan/ton on March 15th.

Steel recruitment situation:

Pohang, South Korea, is bidding for electrolytic manganese from March to April 2024. The quantity is currently unknown, and the deadline for quotation is March 12, 2024. The delivery date is March 31, 2024, and April 26, 2024.

The bidding price for metal manganese ingots at Panzhihua West Steel in March April 2024 is 12265 yuan/ton (excluding tax acceptance pricing), a decrease of 258 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 600 tons and a delivery date before April 30, 2024.

Industry data:

On March 17th, the base metal index was 1203 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.56% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1119 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 84.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.15), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were copper (3.86%), nickel (2.47%), and cobalt (2.25%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-2.03%), neodymium oxide (-1.42%), and metal silicon (-1.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.2%.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market price continued to slowly decline this week. As of March 18th, domestic producers and traders μ The mainstream quoted price of BOPP film for m is around 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.3% from last week’s average price and about 0.6% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) is around 7720 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.1% compared to last week. The cost support of raw material PP for BOPP prices is slightly stronger, but there are more bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are still some undelivered orders, with abundant inventory, increased operating rates of film companies, and sufficient supply on the supply side

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises have insufficient demand, resulting in reduced order volume and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that BOPP prices will slowly decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 7587.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 12.91%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. However, the recent increase in maintenance of naphthalene phthalic anhydride plants has led to an increase in the price trend of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has temporarily stabilized the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

Recently, the price trend of ortho benzene in China has remained stable. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site facilities is stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices has declined, and the price of mixed xylene has remained stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provides certain cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable.

Demand side: DOP market’s on-demand procurement market is declining

The price trend of downstream DOP market has declined this week, with a price of 10910 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.72% from the price of 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises are generally operating, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average. The mainstream price of DOP is 11600-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend has declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is not good. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride is strong.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has increased, while the price of ortho xylene has remained stable. The downstream DOP market has declined, but the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has decreased recently, which has a certain supporting effect on ortho phthalic anhydride. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has shifted downward this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 23793.33 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 22760 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 4.34%.

2、 Market analysis

The focus of the yellow phosphorus market continued to decline this week. The trading situation of yellow phosphorus on the market is average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but the transaction situation of new orders is average. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, demand is average, and there are many cases of underpricing procurement. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the procurement is very cautious. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is relatively light. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized and consolidated this week. As of March 14, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1062 yuan/ton, which is the same as March 7. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the overall domestic phosphorus ore market is stable and running smoothly, with a mild trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field. Currently, the downstream market demand for phosphate ore is slowly recovering.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis of the commodity market by Business Society, as of now, the coke market in Shandong ports is operating weakly, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 2030-2080 yuan/ton and a first level outbound price of 2130-2180 yuan/ton. The spot market in ports is operating weakly, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The intention of traders to gather at the port is low, and the inventory of the two ports has slightly decreased. On March 14th, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao Port at 170 yuan/ton, while Jiexiu arrived at Rizhao Port at 165 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has declined. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market was 6650 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 6600 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price drop of 0.75%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the demand in the thermal phosphoric acid market is average this week, with poor raw material yellow phosphorus market and insufficient cost support. The industry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore market is currently stable and consolidating, and the coke market is operating weakly, with average cost support. The downstream phosphoric acid market prices have fallen. Overall, the trading volume in the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and downstream markets are mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will experience weak consolidation and operation in the short term, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

Recently, the market for butyl acrylate has continued to show a slight downward trend. The demand growth was less than expected. Due to the continued downturn in the terminal real estate market, the downstream coating of butyl acrylate was weak, and the consumption of acrylic lotion could not be said to be considerable. As of March 11, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in the business community was 9490.00 yuan/ton, down -0.42% compared with last Monday (9530.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

In terms of propylene, there was a slight increase in the Shandong market, with mainstream transactions at 7054 yuan/ton as of March 11th. With the rise in propylene prices, downstream product profits are weak, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly flat. Low end offers and shipments are smooth.

In terms of n-butanol, there is a lack of strong positive expectations in the Shandong market, resulting in a inertia decline in market prices and a small supply gap that is not enough to create bullish expectations in the market; On the other hand, although butanol has good profits, downstream product profits are weak. As of March 10th, the mainstream market transaction was at 7933 yuan/ton.

The prices of raw materials fluctuate, and a comprehensive comparison of cost calculations shows that the production enterprises of butyl acrylate are under significant pressure in terms of cost.

In terms of supply and demand

The operating level of domestic butyl acrylate units remains at 60%, and the overall spot supply inventory of production enterprises is gradually increasing. Among them, the total production capacity of satellite chemical acrylic acid and butyl acrylate reaches 840000 tons/year and 780000 tons/year, respectively. The downstream adhesive and tape master roll industries of butyl acrylate are maintaining a strong demand for replenishment, and in the short term, the trend of raw material prices is mainly based on market trends. Most production enterprises of acrylic acid lotion have started construction as planned, and the construction on site is around 40%. The downstream enterprises are slow to resume construction, resulting in a general atmosphere on the site. Due to the lack of significant downstream demand for butyl acrylate, the demand side has a slow driving speed towards the consumption of butyl acrylate supply.

Overall

With the stabilization of raw material propylene prices and the rebound of n-butanol, the downward trend of butyl acrylate prices has slowed down under short-term support from the raw material side. The integration of the butyl acrylate industry has become the main development trend, and non integrated butyl acrylate production enterprises are under significant purchasing pressure in the short term. According to the data analyst from Business Society, the demand for downstream markets in the butyl acrylate market still needs to be monitored this week. However, the overall situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, and it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to operate weakly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic tetrachloroethylene market saw a strong rise this week (3.4-3.8). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 4800 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 5012 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.43%.

2、 Analysis and Review

On Thursday of this week, the market for vinyl chloride showed a significant increase, with tight supply. After the holiday, the shipment of refrigerants in the market rebounded significantly, and the price of refrigerant R125 increased. The market supply was tight, and there was strong support for demand in the face of tetrachloroethylene.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the demand for tetrachloroethylene will continue to support in the short term, and it is expected that the tetrachloroethylene market will continue to maintain a high and strong trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On March 4th, the price of pure benzene was 8275 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from last week and an increase of 13.67% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8350 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have dropped by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Overnight crude oil and styrene prices have risen, and sellers are optimistic about the future market. The willingness to ship has decreased, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate and rise today.

Crude oil: The market is weighing the impact of the Middle East situation and demand prospects, and the bearish game continues, with narrow fluctuations in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract 78.93 fell 0.20 US dollars per barrel, or 0.25%; The ICE oil futures 05 contract remained unchanged at $82.96 per barrel. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2404, rose 5.4 to 614.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 613.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in the East China market was discussed and the transaction was positive. However, the industry is concerned about the subsequent downstream maintenance situation, and the space for price increase is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of butyl rubber 1751 was 17675 yuan/ton on February 28th. This month, the price curve of butyl rubber remained stable, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton from January, or 0.57%.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Due to the increase in domestic MTBE prices in February, but the lack of downstream procurement enthusiasm after the upward push, the market situation slightly rebounded, resulting in slight fluctuations in isobutene prices in February. The price of isobutene fell by 100 yuan/ton this month. In terms of equipment, the 45000 ton unit of Yanshan Petrochemical has been shut down, while other units are operating normally. Overall, the cost is relatively weak in terms of spot support.

Demand side: At the beginning of the Chinese New Year, the overseas tire market is gradually entering a good situation, with a continuous flow of overseas orders from steel tire enterprises. The industry prosperity is accelerating the resumption rate of the steel tire industry. As of today, the load rate of the entire steel tire industry has increased by about 2 layers, and the load rate of the semi steel industry has increased by about 1.4 layers.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the supply side of butyl rubber is expected to increase slightly in the later stage, with weak support from the cost side and expected support from the demand side. It is expected that the recent butyl rubber market will be strong and consolidation will be the main trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of light rare earths in February declined. On February 28th, the rare earth index was 375 points, a decrease of 23 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 62.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 38.38% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 362500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 10.49% in February; The price of neodymium metal was 475000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8.21% in February; The price of praseodymium oxide was 375000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7.98% in February; The price of praseodymium metal was 510000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 7.27% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 452500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 9.50% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 365000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 8.75%.

In February, the rare earth market prices fell, with limited transactions in the domestic rare earth market, very few new orders, low purchasing willingness of enterprises, and very few downstream inquiries. The rare earth raw material market continued to operate under pressure, with only a small number of price pressing inquiries. The supply-demand contradiction was sharp, and the overall market transactions were sluggish. There are many downstream holiday companies around the Spring Festival, and coupled with the holiday period for waste recycling, the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the rare earth market trend continues to decline.

According to statistics, in January 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 787000 and 729000 respectively, a decrease of 32.9% and 38.8% month on month, and an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in production and sales of new energy vehicles in January has had a certain negative impact on the rare earth market, and the domestic rare earth market has slightly declined.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments have released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, and the growth rate of the indicators has slowed down, which has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and some companies have not yet resumed work and production. The situation regarding new orders is unclear, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.

According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in February. On February 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6880 yuan/ton, and on February 29th, the benchmark price was 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.80%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; However, the continued increase in port inventories has brought resistance to the upward trend of toluene.

The rise in international crude oil and external market prices provides support for toluene

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices rose during and after the holiday in February, leading to stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of February 28th, the settlement of WTI04 contract is 78.54 yuan/barrel; The settlement price of Brent 05 contract is $82.15 per barrel. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in February. As of February 28, March, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 902-904 US dollars/ton.

Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remains at 8.4%. The external price of PX has slightly increased, and as of the 28th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1013-1015 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1038-1040 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Domestic mixed blending demand is weak in supporting toluene

During the off-season of the domestic mixed blending market before and after the Spring Festival, downstream inquiries were light, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. In the later stage, with the increase in local refining operations, the demand for oil blending in the market is expected to recover. As of February 22, the nationwide refinery operation fluctuated narrowly around 7.1 to 7.3.

After the holiday, TDI has basically increased its support for toluene demand

After the holiday, downstream factories have resumed work one after another, and the replenishment sentiment has increased. In addition, the TDI market has a low supply of goods, and suppliers have a clear intention to increase prices. Shanghai’s large factories have raised prices, and holders have raised their offers. However, downstream demand is limited, and TDI may not have enough support for stable operation in the later stage of the rise.

The increase in supply has suppressed the upward trend of Jia Ben

Domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of February 22, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; As of February 23, the inventory of toluene in East China was 104000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 18000 tons, a significant increase from the end of January.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Downstream industries such as PX and TDI have some support for toluene, but toluene inventories continued to increase in February, and supply pressure remains; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a volatile consolidation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable this week. The main market price for solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China was around 1808.75 yuan/ton on the 29th. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has gradually returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid remains stable. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, and as of February 29th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was 85 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has fluctuated and fallen, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has risen this week. As market demand gradually recovers at the end of the month, liquid prices have started to rise, and low prices have begun to rise. The bidding price for raw gas has increased, leading to increased cost support.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will remain stable, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will rise, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will rise. On the supply side, production of polyaluminum chloride by Chinese manufacturers has gradually resumed normal operations; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

February coincides with the Spring Festival, but the market for viscose short fibers is relatively warm, with prices rising. Before the year, manufacturers had no pressure on inventory, downstream demand was insufficient, and adhesive short fibers remained stable in operation. After the new year, the inventory of factories is not high, and the maintenance of equipment in factories in Shandong continues, resulting in a decrease in supply. The trend of raw materials is strong, and cost support is still acceptable. The opening of adhesive short fibers is good, and most adhesive short fiber factories have raised their prices to a certain extent. Moreover, the production of yarn and terminals has gradually increased, and there may be an increase in demand. However, the overall investment atmosphere has not significantly improved, and manufacturers mainly focus on executing orders. The overall stability of downstream human cotton yarn is relatively strong, with a slight increase in quotes from human cotton yarn factories and a slight reduction in discounts, while inventory is basically maintained.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in February 2024, the overall price of adhesive short fibers remained stable and increased. As of February 29th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13560 yuan/ton, an increase of 380 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.88%.

In terms of cost: In February, the trend of raw material dissolution slurry was relatively strong, and cost support remained strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7600 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in price. Actual orders are negotiated.

Supply and demand: In February, the inventory of adhesive short fibers was limited. After the holiday, manufacturers continued to maintain their equipment, resulting in a decrease in supply and reluctance to sell. Downstream human cotton yarn factories have started construction one after another, replenishing goods as needed. Human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong, and the market’s low-priced supply has slightly decreased.

In February, the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and slightly strong, with prices following the slight increase in raw material viscose short fibers. Some yarn factories slightly increased their quotations and reduced their discounts. Overall shipments were average, and inventory was basically maintained. As of February 29th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first grade) was 17550 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton or 1.30% compared to the beginning of February.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the price center of raw material dissolution pulp has been strong, with strong cost support and tight inventory of adhesive short fibers. At the end of February, some adhesive short fiber equipment maintenance in Shandong region is approaching its end, and the supply of adhesive short fibers may increase, and the inventory situation may improve. The production of yarn and terminals is gradually increasing, and there may be an increase in demand. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the trend of adhesive short fibers may be mainly stable, medium to strong; The market situation of human cotton yarn will be mainly stabilized and operated steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 28th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% compared to the price on February 1st.

The market situation of epichlorohydrin remained stable with minor fluctuations in February. The pre holiday cost support is average, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, and the supply side inventory operates without pressure. After the downstream stage replenishment, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement decreases. With the approaching holiday and the impact of logistics transportation, the market atmosphere is calm and wait-and-see, and the focus of negotiations on epichlorohydrin is mainly stable. After the holiday, the factory mainly delivers contracts and orders, and the inventory pressure accumulated during the holiday gradually eases. Some enterprises have export orders to support their price boosting mentality, but downstream demand recovery is slow. The attitude of inquiry and procurement is cautious, and small orders with low demand are mainly selected. New orders in the market are generally sold.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on February 27th was 6895.75, an increase of 0.77% compared to February 1st (6843.25), providing moderate support for the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for downstream epoxy resin on February 27th was 13333.33, an increase of 1.52% compared to February 1st (13133.33), which provides limited support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current market is dominated by poor demand, and shippers are under pressure to ship. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Recent trends in urea prices

Agricultural demand is gradually starting, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2506.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2525 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.73%, and the weekend price decreased by 9.79% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, some gas companies have resumed production and started operating higher. The data shows that the operating rate of domestic coal urea enterprises this week is about 86.1%, while that of gas urea enterprises is about 85.8%. The daily urea production in China is about 190000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

From the upstream market perspective, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week: the price of liquefied natural gas plummeted by 7.02%, and the weekend price fell by 41.35% year-on-year. Affected by rainy and snowy weather in some regions of China, market circulation is restricted, terminal demand is released slowly, and the trading atmosphere is poor. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 4.68%, and the weekend price fell by 37.13% year-on-year. However, the prices of anthracite coal have remained low and have stabilized. Over the weekend, the price of Yangquan anthracite coal (washed lump) was 960 yuan/ton, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is gradually starting, and industrial demand is following the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on procurement for essential needs. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From the perspective of exports: Although there are still bids overseas, the impact of urea export policies on the domestic market is not significant.

In the future, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in late February. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. But downstream industries are mainly in demand, and agricultural demand is gradually starting. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.

This week, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market was operating steadily, with an average price of 10950.00 yuan/ton as of February 2, unchanged from the same period last week.

The high market price of raw materials and high slag still operates at a high level, resulting in significant cost pressure for production enterprises. Downstream procurement sentiment is insufficient, with a focus on essential procurement. The titanium tetrachloride market remains strong.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the titanium tetrachloride market may remain stable in the short term due to high cost support and limited downstream product demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 4, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 15000 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15040 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.29-2.4), the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a slight fluctuation and a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, Shandong large factories slightly lowered the shipment price of organic silicon DMC, by about 100 yuan/ton. The price adjustment by large factories broke the high stability and calm situation of the organic silicon DMC market, and the organic silicon DMC market experienced narrow fluctuations. Suppliers may follow the footsteps of large factories or adjust the shipment price of organic silicon DMC narrowly based on their own inventory factors, with an adjustment range of about 100 yuan/ton. As of February 4th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 14800-15600 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics in some regions of China have also started to stop shipping and operation. The trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is gradually quiet, and downstream procurement and stocking have basically ended. The overall market atmosphere is gradually mild and calm. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Shengyishe, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly operate steadily, with limited fluctuations in the market. More attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 31st, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7000 yuan/ton. In January, the cyclohexane market saw a narrow decline, with a decrease of 1.64%, around 100 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the market negotiation atmosphere is average.

In January, the market price of cyclohexane slightly declined, with mainstream prices around 7000 yuan/ton. The overall price of cyclohexane in January fell by 1.64%, and mainstream manufacturers maintained a price range of around 7000 yuan/ton. The upstream cost side was not supported enough, and downstream demand was limited, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The overall market transaction atmosphere was cold, with enterprise quotations of 7400 yuan/ton for Jiangsu Runfeng Synthetic Technology Co., Ltd., 6800 yuan/ton for Nantong Runfeng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and 7500 yuan/ton for Liaocheng Yuanze Chemical Products Co., Ltd.

Chemical index: On February 1st, the chemical index was 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly strong, with price fluctuations around 7100-7300 yuan/ton.

Review of mixed xylene market in 2023

In 2023, the mixed xylene market fluctuated widely, with an overall slight increase. According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the benchmark price of mixed xylene in the market was 6970 yuan/ton on December 31, an increase of 3.87% from 6710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest point for the year appeared at 8720 yuan/ton on September 19.

The international crude oil range fluctuated from January to April, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; In 2023, four new PX devices were put into operation in China, with a total production capacity of 7.7 million tons all put into operation in the first half of the year. Mixed xylene has shifted from export to domestic use. In addition, the demand for mixed xylene in North America has remained high, providing strong support for mixed xylene. In addition, arbitrage activities between Asia and the United States have led to an increase in external prices, which has also driven up the price of mixed xylene; Taking into account the above factors, the mixed xylene market saw a significant increase from January to April.

The continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank from April to June have had negative feedback on the economy, leading to a bleak outlook for global demand and an increased risk of economic recession. The price of crude oil has dropped significantly, while the cost of mixed xylene has declined.

Against the backdrop of OPEC+continuing to reduce production in July, coupled with the United States entering summer, the driving season is the peak season for refined oil consumption. With the support of tight supply and strong demand in the market, oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of mixed xylene in the market has significantly increased. In addition, the widening interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has led to active exports of mixed xylene, driving it to rise rapidly.

From August to September, with the high price of mixed xylene, downstream resistance increased, and the mixed xylene market stabilized at a high level. At the end of September, as crude oil prices further rose, mixed xylene prices ultimately surged to the highest point of the year.

In the fourth quarter, on the one hand, domestic gasoline consumption has entered the off-season, and the demand for blending has also decreased. The overall demand for blended xylene is weak. On the other hand, the high level of the international crude oil market has significantly declined, and the cost center of blended xylene has significantly shifted, resulting in a continuous decline in blended xylene prices.

Market Outlook for Mixed Xylene in 2024

Cost side: The international crude oil price center expects a slight increase in mixed xylene costs, with support from the cost side

The external environment in which crude oil operates in 2024 is still quite complex, with a complex geopolitical situation and constant conflicts. This will have an unpredictable direct impact on oil prices, resulting in even more drastic fluctuations. In the long run, the supply-demand game remains dominant, and on the supply side, OPEC’s production control will continue to play a role in managing oil price expectations. The demand side faces more uncertainty, and an economic slowdown is likely to create a constraint on oil prices. According to the EIA report in December, the EIA lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2024 to $83 per barrel, a decrease of $10 per barrel compared to the November forecast. Overall, due to the large number of oil price variables in 2023, oil prices have been operating at low levels for a long time, and the base oil price is not high. It is expected that the average oil price in 2024 may still be slightly higher than in 2023, but due to demand constraints, oil prices will not increase significantly.

Supply side: It is expected that the supply side of mixed xylene will continue to increase in 2024

In 2023, there is still a significant demand gap in the domestic mixed xylene market, with both industry supply and demand maintaining a growth trend. However, the growth rate of product supply is slower than downstream, and the structural tension is supporting product prices. In 2023, China’s mixed xylene production capacity and output both maintained a growth trend, but the growth rate decreased compared to previous years. In 2024, there will still be new production capacity for mixed xylene in China, and the tight supply situation is expected to be alleviated to a certain extent. In addition, with more refineries separating mixed xylene in the third quarter of 2023, the production of mixed xylene will significantly increase in 2024.

Demand side: Slow growth rate of mixed xylene market demand in 2024

In recent years, downstream PX plants for mixed xylene have been concentrated and put into operation. The total PX production capacity in China for the whole year of 2023 was 43.485 million tons, with an additional domestic production capacity of about 6.2 million tons. The total production is expected to be around 32.1 million tons in 2023, and the external dependence has decreased to 22%. In the next three years, there will still be nearly 10 million tons of newly added production capacity in China, providing strong support for the demand for mixed xylene.

The downstream mixing market is the second largest consumer industry for mixed xylene. With the increase in domestic car ownership, the consumption of gasoline has also increased, which has driven an increase in demand for mixed xylene. However, due to the improvement of gasoline quality in China, the proportion of mixed xylene has decreased. In addition, with the continued increase in the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, the demand for mixed xylene in gasoline mixtures has grown relatively slowly.

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that the international crude oil price is expected to fluctuate slightly higher in 2024, and the cost of mixed xylene still has support. The supply of mixed xylene is expected to increase, and downstream PX production capacity will continue to grow significantly in the future. However, the demand in the mixed blending field will slow down, and overall, downstream mixed xylene will continue to support. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market in 2024 will fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China slightly increased in late January. On January 30th, the average market price in East China was 16900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16800 yuan/ton on January 21st, an increase of 0.60%.

In late January, the domestic TDI market was consolidating and operating, with slight price fluctuations. The filling of spot goods in factories is slow, with suppliers mainly raising prices. The trading market follows the market and actively ships. Many sets of TDI devices in factories have lowered their negative prices, slightly boosting the market. Holders have slightly increased their offers, but downstream purchases are average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. There have been rumors of a small number of low-priced transactions, and the overall market growth is weak.

The upstream toluene market is relatively strong and rising. On January 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% compared to the price of 6800 yuan/ton on January 21st. The international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with good support from the cost and external prices of toluene. The rebound of toluene prices in Asia has provided some support to the domestic market, while downstream demand has shown weak performance and limited support for toluene. Under the influence of costs, the toluene market has slightly risen.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic TDI spot filling is slow, factories are mainly supportive of the market, and the trade market mentality is stagnant. Holders are actively shipping, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the rise of suppliers is limited. On the market, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the future. Specific attention will be paid to downstream purchasing situation and the release of market news from suppliers.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 29th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on January 1st.

The market for epichlorohydrin remained stable in January. In the first half of the month, raw material prices adjusted narrowly, with average cost support and low industry capacity utilization. Enterprises mainly delivered contracts and self use, with tight spot supply. Downstream demand followed up with small orders after phased replenishment, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere and average transactions. Holders adjusted their prices flexibly based on their own situation, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market remained stable with little movement. In the second half of the month, cost support is limited, and spot supply is tight and continuing. However, there is a lack of strong support in the demand side. Downstream rigid demand will follow up with price adjustments, and market negotiations will focus on stability.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on January 29th was 6955.75, an increase of 1.27% compared to January 1st (6868.25), and the cost is generally supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for downstream epoxy resin on January 29th was 13133.33, a decrease of 0.76% compared to January 1st (13233.33), indicating insufficient support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, with tight supply side spot support. However, downstream pre holiday stocking is nearing completion, and the market trading atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market for epichlorohydrin may remain stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8690.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%. The price has increased by 9.38% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, with slight fluctuations in the market this week. The supply side is tightening, international oil prices are rising, and cost support is still acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is poor, and spot transactions in the styrene market are flat, with slight fluctuations in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fluctuated this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 7950 yuan/ton. Affected by the weakening of the external market, the market is resistant to high prices, and the negotiation atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a decrease in trading volume in both East China and Shandong. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will be weak.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average PS quotation at the beginning of this week was 9566 yuan/ton, and the average PS price over the weekend was 9633 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.7% and a decrease of 1.03% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price in the short term will mainly fluctuate.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10137.50 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a slight increase. As of January 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10862.50 yuan/ton, a+1.88% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month. The recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylic nitrile market mainly consolidating. The price of propylene, the raw material, continues to rise, providing sufficient support for the cost of acrylonitrile. In the early stage, the supply of acrylonitrile was relatively loose, and the current market is buying coldly. The pre holiday stocking volume is average, and the market is balanced between long and short positions, with prices mainly being sideways.

The recent market expectations are optimistic, with international oil prices rising. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, styrene inventories are rising, and spot transactions are slow. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and decline.

The overall domestic dimethyl ether market in Henan declined in January. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3775 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 3725 yuan/ton on January 26th. The monthly decline was 1.32%, a decrease of 19.45% compared to the same period last year.

As of January 26th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3700 yuan/ton

In January, the price center of dimethyl ether in the Henan region continued to shift downwards. In early January, due to the decline in raw material methanol, the price of dimethyl ether was lowered. Affected by the sluggish demand trend, upstream parking reduction enterprises continue to increase, and supply continues to decrease. However, due to the continued weak demand side, the price of dimethyl ether further declined after a period of stalemate and consolidation. At the end of the month, the price of raw material methanol increased, and the cost pressure of dimethyl ether increased. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, dimethyl ether did not keep up with the increase.

The methanol market fluctuated and rose in January, with significant price increases at the end of the month. From January 1st to 26th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic methanol market increased from 2450 yuan/ton to 2565 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.89% during the cycle. The cost has increased, but the stability of dimethyl ether has led to significant cost pressure on dimethyl ether.

Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, there has been no significant improvement in the downstream of dimethyl ether. With cost support, it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain a weak and stable operation.

This week, the lead market (1.15-1.22) overall rose, with the average price in the domestic market at 16085 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16370 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 1.77%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

The social inventory of lead ingots has been continuously declining recently, dropping to a low level within three years, boosting the futures market. Recently, lead prices have been more affected by supply and demand. In terms of supply, the mining supply is still tight, and some primary lead enterprises have recently resumed production. Some enterprises plan to conduct a review after the year, and the overall operating rate has not changed much. Recycled lead enterprises have been affected by high prices of waste batteries and tight supply, resulting in overall low production in recent times. Overall, the supply of lead ingots in the market is slightly tight, and downstream storage enterprises still have some stocking demand. They actively enter the market for inquiries, and the market atmosphere is good. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday season, and the market is expected to start lower in the future. The demand for stocking is almost coming to an end, and demand support is expected to be weak in the future. Overall, although the lead ingot market still has positive support from the supply side, downstream purchasing intentions are slowly falling, and it is expected that there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the short term. There may be room for a pullback in the market after stocking up, and the short-term trend will remain weak and volatile.

Related data:

On January 21, the base metal index was 1161 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.84% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 21, the non-ferrous index was at 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the third week of 2024 (1.15-1.19), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (2.17%), dysprosium oxide (2.08%), and antimony (2.01%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-1.71%), aluminum (-1.00%), and silver (-0.77%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on January 15th was 811 yuan/ton, and on January 19th, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 881 yuan/ton. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market increased by 8.62%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. This week, there has been an increase in market inquiries, an improved trading atmosphere, and a continuous increase in the bidding price of ammonium sulfate. Recently, the international urea price has risen, which has indirectly benefited the ammonium sulfate market. As of January 19th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 830 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the price trend of ammonium sulfate has been improving recently. Particle manufacturers actively follow up, replenish downstream as needed, and remain cautious about high prices, with limited room for growth. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be relatively strong in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Review of the market situation of butadiene rubber in 2023

In 2023, the market price of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of butadiene rubber at the beginning of 2023 was 10580 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 12430 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 17.49%; The low point of the year was 10330 yuan/ton, and the high point was 13380 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 34.37%.

From January to February at the beginning of the year, on the one hand, the raw material butadiene significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber increased. On the other hand, after the comprehensive opening up, downstream production gradually increased, and the price of butadiene rubber increased; From March to June, with a significant decline in the price of raw material butadiene and weak demand for loose supply of butadiene rubber, the price of butadiene rubber plummeted to the lowest point of the year; Supported by four factors from July to September, including an increase in tire production, a significant increase in raw material prices, rotating maintenance of butadiene rubber equipment, and a bullish sentiment towards the listing of butadiene rubber futures funds, the price of butadiene rubber began a second round of increase, reaching a peak of 13880 yuan/ton in September; Although the price of butadiene continued to rise slightly after the National Day holiday, the price of butadiene rubber gradually declined due to negative factors such as increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene and a gradual decline in downstream tire production in the off-season; At the end of the year, due to the impact of multiple equipment maintenance for butadiene rubber, the production of butadiene rubber decreased to a low level of 5.5%. In a tight supply situation, the price of butadiene rubber rebounded.

In summary, there are three main factors that will affect the trend of butadiene rubber in 2023: firstly, the tire production in 2023 has increased to a certain extent compared to 2022, supporting the overall upward trend of butadiene rubber market in 2023 from the demand side; 2、 The price of raw material butadiene fluctuated widely, and the cost side boosted the rise of butadiene rubber at the beginning of the year and in the third quarter; 3、 In 2023, only Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new production capacity of 100000 tons/year of butadiene rubber was put into operation, and there was not much increase in production capacity. However, the rotating maintenance of multiple units of butadiene rubber during the year caused a tight supply side, which helped push up the price of butadiene rubber in the third quarter and at the end of the year.

Market forecast for butadiene rubber in 2024

Cost side: More new production capacity for butadiene, expected decrease in cost of butadiene rubber

According to Business Society, there will be a significant increase in the production capacity of raw material butadiene in 2024. Although downstream production capacity of butadiene has also increased to some extent, the overall increase is not as fast as the expansion of butadiene, and there will be more production in the second half of the year. It is expected that the supply of butadiene will face significant pressure in 2024, especially in the second half of the year when the market will operate under pressure. As of the end of November 2023, the butadiene production capacity in 2023 was 6.416 million tons; In 2024, the new production capacity of butadiene will reach 1.07 million tons, and the butadiene production capacity will reach 7.486 million tons.

Supply side: The continued increase in production capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to bring certain pressure to the 2024 market

After the addition of 100000 tons of new annual production capacity of butadiene rubber in 2023 (already put into operation), the new annual production capacity of butadiene rubber in 2024 is 320000 tons, and nearly half of the new production capacity will be released by the end of 2024. This will gradually increase the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber in 2024, especially starting from the end of 2024, the pressure will reach a new high.

Demand side: Domestic tire production capacity continues to expand in 2024, and demand for butadiene rubber is expected to increase slightly

In 2024, domestic tire production capacity will continue to expand. It is reported that in 2024, the production capacity of semi steel tires and full steel tires will increase by 25 million and 5.5 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and 2.5%. In addition, the expected increase in both internal and external demand for tires in 2024 will support the domestic tire industry to maintain a high operating rate, which in turn will support the market for butadiene rubber in 2024.

The driving force for tire demand in 2024 is divided into two paths: internal and external. On the one hand, the expected increase in domestic automobile production and sales provides support for tire demand. Affected by the expansion of domestic demand and industrial policy support, the demand for tires will continue to grow domestically. It is reported that at the 2024 China Automotive Market Development Forecast Summit held on December 11, 2023, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicted that the sales of automobiles and new energy vehicles in 2024 would be approximately 31 million and 11.5 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and 20%. On the other hand, the improvement of domestic tire technology and low prices have continuously enhanced the competitiveness of Chinese tires in the international market. In addition, the development of emerging markets such as Mexico and Brazil has created opportunities for Chinese tire exports. It is expected that the domestic tire export volume will continue to increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Looking ahead to 2024, due to increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene, the overall price expectation is expected to decline, and the cost of butadiene rubber in 2024 will decrease to a certain extent compared to 2023. Therefore, it is expected that the profit of the butadiene rubber industry in 2024 will actually increase compared to 2023; The downstream demand for butadiene rubber is expected to continue to grow slightly, and driven by profits, it is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will remain relatively high in 2024.

Overall, in 2024, the price of butadiene rubber may show a trend of high in the front and low in the back. In the first half of the year, there is not much pressure on the new production capacity of raw material butadiene, and the cost and demand aspects of butadiene rubber support the high price operation; In the second half of the year, the concentrated release of new butadiene production capacity will weaken the cost support for butadiene, and driven by profits, the supply of butadiene rubber will increase, and the price of butadiene rubber will gradually decline. It is expected that the high point of the butadiene rubber market in 2024 will occur in the first half of the year, with an expected high point around 14500 yuan/ton; The low point of the 2024 market is expected to occur in the second half of the year, with the low point expected to be around 11000 yuan/ton.

From January 8th to January 15th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 87250 yuan/ton, up 3.25%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has declined, reaching $12150/ton as of January 15th, up $500/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has maintained a relatively stable operation since October and continued until mid December. Starting from mid December, the antimony ingot market has continuously increased, reaching 87250 yuan/ton this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side has been affected by the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas. Recently, the situation of tight supply at the domestic mining end has been more obvious, and the reluctance of smelters to sell has further strengthened. Factory prices have been reported high, and the overall sentiment in the spot market is also strong. In terms of demand, with the digestion of inventory in the early stage and the reluctance of smelters to sell, the demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as antimony oxide has begun to increase. Inquiries about antimony ingots are active, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally have stocking needs. Currently, they are actively purchasing, and market trading has significantly improved. Overall, the antimony ingot market has a tight supply and good demand. With the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will maintain a strong trend in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market followed the overall upward trend of antimony ingots, with an increase of about 2000 yuan/ton during the week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have sufficient procurement plans in the near future and are actively inquiring about antimony ingots. The market supply is tight, and the market atmosphere is strong.

On January 14th, the antimony commodity index was 121.46, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a new historical high within the cycle, up 158.54% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the main report of the stearic acid market was around 8180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to January 2nd. Starting from mid to late December, the stearic acid market has experienced a slight downward trend in a step-by-step manner. The market for raw material palm oil has rebounded, with prices continuously rising.

Raw palm oil: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on January 11th, the average market price of palm oil was 7266 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64% compared to January 4th. The domestic palm oil market has returned to an upward trend. Due to the expected decrease in Malaysian palm oil inventory data, the external Malaysian palm oil futures market has risen for several days, boosting the domestic palm oil futures market. Spot prices have followed suit and fluctuated for nearly a week, with prices rising by over 4% compared to January 4th.

Market forecast: The palm oil market is recovering and prices are continuously rising. However, due to the drag of demand and the lack of strong support for the stearic acid market, there is sufficient supply of goods in the stearic acid market, and the factory operating rate is less than 50%. Downstream demand is weak. The confidence of business owners has weakened. It is expected that the domestic stearic acid oscillation consolidation will be the main trend in the near future.

In just the past year of 2023, global input inflation, escalating geopolitical conflicts, slowing growth in commodity demand, and increasing operational risks have caused the global economy to fluctuate. As a member of the end products of petrochemical and coal chemical industries, EVA plastic is also difficult to stand alone, and the overall market is deeply affected by the macro environment. On the other hand, the EVA industry has also gained opportunities for development in China in 2023. Can the heat of China’s EVA industry be ignited in 2024, and how will the market trend be? This forecast report will take you forward to the EVA market situation this year.

Consumer Review and Forecast

Firstly, let’s review the domestic EVA consumption situation from far to near. From the above figure, it can be seen that China has become a major consumer and importer of EVA. Although the proportion of import dependence on products is gradually decreasing, there is still a significant gap. The strong demand has driven the import of EVA to fluctuate and rise. Compared to the import volume, China’s EVA export volume is very small. It is expected that in 2024, the products of domestic local enterprises will still be mainly used to meet the domestic market demand, and the import and export pattern will remain unchanged.

At the same time, with the continuous advancement of infrastructure in various fields, EVA terminal products have achieved stable growth. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA will continue to increase in different sub sectors. According to relevant calculations, due to downstream demand, domestic EVA consumption will continue to grow at an annual rate of 8.4% in the next five years. It is expected that the domestic EVA consumption in 2024 will not be less than 3.4 million tons.

Prediction of Domestic EVA Consumption Structure

In the downstream consumer sector, traditional industries such as foam shoe materials and cables have seen slow growth in consumption in recent years, resulting in lower than expected overall demand and long-term pressure on the EVA market. In recent years, the photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly. Last year, the domestic photovoltaic power generation grid connected installed capacity was about 170GW or more, which is about 95% higher than the total installed capacity of 87.41GW in 2022. The production of photovoltaic power generation modules has significantly exceeded expectations, driving a surge in demand for photovoltaic film. The consumption of EVA photovoltaic materials in 2023 exceeded the forecast at the beginning of last year, and the overall consumption accounted for more than half.

Summary of Recent Domestic Photovoltaic Policies

Due to the constraints of international climate agreements and other legal provisions that require countries to bear corresponding carbon reduction responsibilities, the research and application of new clean energy will be long-term, and the market space of related industries will continue to expand. On the other hand, controlling carbon emissions is an inevitable choice for China’s sustainable development, and energy substitution is an important path. As a relatively optimal solution, photovoltaic power generation schemes have received strong policy support in recent years. According to the prediction of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation equipment will continue to grow this year, and the total demand for EVA will continue to rise due to the boost of photovoltaic film.

Supply and Capacity Planning

Domestic EVA production capacity forecast

At present, the demand for EVA in both domestic and foreign markets is vast, and it has become a business that domestic refining enterprises are eager to layout. According to the existing investment and construction plans with announced completion dates, China’s new EVA production capacity will be at least 900000 tons/year by 2024, and it is expected that the total domestic production capacity will reach over 3.35 million tons/year by the end of the year. If calculated based on the average domestic load of 85% last year, it is expected that the total production of local enterprises in China will reach over 2.84 million tons by 2024.

The domestic industry is rapidly expanding and competition is significantly strengthening. In addition, except for some coal chemical bases, EVA enterprises in China are mainly concentrated in coastal areas, with East China’s EVA production capacity accounting for up to 66%, and East and South China accounting for 90% of the total domestic consumption. The production and sales pattern is dual centralized. It is expected that the EVA industry will continue to compete for cost reduction and efficiency improvement this year, and further mature.

Market forecast

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the EVA market for the year 2023 began to rise at 13633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, but turned volatile and fell by the beginning of the second quarter. As of December 31, the EVA price was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.14% for the whole year, and the overall trend rose and fell.

In 2023, the EVA market prices are under pressure and will decline. In the first quarter, the installed capacity of photovoltaics significantly exceeded expectations, and the demand for stocking drove the market up. After the positive demand for photovoltaic materials is phased out, the demand for traditional industries is low and overall is lower than expected. In the third quarter, prices rebounded slightly, and the seller camp had a willingness to raise prices, but they all suffered successive defeats after rebounding. Subsequently, the weak decline continued until the end of the year, and prices have fallen to a three-year low.

Based on the previous analysis, there are three prominent points in the domestic EVA market pattern:

Firstly, there is a double increase in supply and demand. China’s EVA production capacity is rapidly expanding, and the downstream photovoltaic industry has huge demand potential. The supply and demand of the EVA market will inevitably increase in 2024.

Secondly, policy support. In recent years, whether it is the pressure of international carbon reduction or the frequent support policies for the domestic photovoltaic power generation industry, the research and production of EVA products will continue to be promoted.

Thirdly, competition intensifies. EVA production in China is concentrated in the southeast coast, while consumption is concentrated in East and South China. The explosive expansion of production capacity will inevitably intensify market competition.

Overall, with the comprehensive promotion of the domestic economy and infrastructure construction, the EVA industry chain and the field of residential life will also achieve stable development. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA in different sub sectors will steadily increase. Especially in the photovoltaic industry, it will continue to maintain a high-speed growth momentum.

But as more new players enter at lower levels, the popularity of EVA products will inevitably increase. The increasingly fierce competition in the EVA industry will give rise to higher end and cheaper products, and the industry will gradually mature while achieving significant development. Therefore, the focus of the EVA market in 2024 may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on January 1st was 5433 yuan/ton. On January 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.23% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers maintain stable shipments, and some enterprises increase prices with raw materials. As of January 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5100-5500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fluctuated and increased this week, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has continued to rise this week. At present, the device is operating normally, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with transaction negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has been stable and rising recently. Although there is support on the cost side, terminal demand is weak, and the market still maintains a cautious attitude. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be adjusted and operated within a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7933 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 1, 2024. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 167 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-propanol in China remained stable and organized. As we enter the first week of 2024, the overall news of the domestic n-propanol market remains calm, with little change in on-site device operation. Downstream demand for n-propanol continues to be mainly for rigid procurement, with some small-scale stocking. The supply and demand transmission of n-propanol is stable, and the mentality of operators is good. The overall market volatility is relatively small. As of January 5th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is quiet and mild, with inquiries mostly for first-time orders. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust its range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in December 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated upwards, with the average market price in East China reaching 80500 yuan/ton on the 1st and 81250 yuan/ton on the 28th, an increase of 0.93%.

On December 28th, the antimony commodity index was 113.11, an increase of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 6.87% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.46 points (2023-15), and an increase of 140.76% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market rose in December, with a quote of $11550/ton as of the 28th, an increase of $400/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market as a whole rose in December, with a slight recovery in overseas markets recently, which led to an improvement in the domestic market mentality and a slight increase in the spot market. At the end of the month, the downstream antimony oxide market slightly rebounded, and the export situation also improved compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. However, the downstream antimony oxide market still maintains on-demand procurement, providing strong support for the antimony ingot market.

In December, the antimony ingot market remained stable for the first half of the month and steadily increased in the second half, with an overall increase of 750 yuan/ton. The antimony ingot market has maintained a stable operation since October, with a strong supply-demand game mentality. It was not until the end of December, driven by downstream factors, that the stable trend of nearly two months was broken, and prices slightly increased. In terms of supply, recent changes have been limited, and mining supply remains tight. However, this news has been largely digested, and its impact on the market is limited. With the recent stabilization of the market, the mentality of smelters to be reluctant to sell and raise prices has begun to increase. However, the tight supply at the mining end has not been improved, and the overall supply of antimony ingots is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market has recently slightly rebounded, and the export situation has also improved compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. Overall, at the end of the year, some companies had a demand for capital recovery and actively shipped goods, which led to an improvement in market trading sentiment. However, without clear guidance from the spot market, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate temporarily and steadily in the near future. We will pay attention to changes in downstream demand and the performance of overseas markets in the future.

On December 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1111 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 83.03% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose in December

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of December 29th, the price of cobalt was 220900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the cobalt price of 219000 yuan/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price has increased by 4.00% compared to December 7th at 212400 yuan/ton. In November, cobalt terminal consumption improved, but the production of ternary materials, ternary precursors, and cobalt sulfate still contracted. The industrial chain actively promoted the elimination of raw material inventory, and cobalt prices fell to the historical absolute bottom area. Supply decreased and demand increased, and cobalt prices rebounded and rose in December.

The demand for ternary battery terminals is recovering

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China’s power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, the proportion of ternary batteries rebounded, the terminal demand for ternary batteries rebounded, and the demand in the cobalt market increased.

With the continuous decline in nickel and cobalt prices, the cost gap between ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has further narrowed, highlighting the cost-effectiveness advantage of ternary batteries. It is expected that the sales of ternary batteries will increase in the future. Ternary batteries are favorable for cobalt market demand.

Mobile phone sales rebounded

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The year-on-year increase in mobile phone shipments has boosted the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in November was 13600 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 88%; The cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to November was 103800 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, and the supply of cobalt in the market has increased.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of ternary batteries have increased, mobile phone sales have rebounded, demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rise, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly. However, domestic production of ternary materials has contracted, the industrial chain has been destocked, and the supply of metallic cobalt is sufficient. Overall, cobalt prices have fallen to historic lows, bottoming out, and both supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

On December 1, 2023, the electrolytic manganese market first rose and then stabilized, showing an overall upward trend. The spot market price in East China was at 13750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 13900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.09%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively stable.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market was weak in December. Affected by weather factors, downstream manufacturers have increased their inquiries and stock up, resulting in a significant increase in market activity. The transaction prices at ports are inconsistent. Although there have been low-priced transactions, it appears that most miners have weakened their willingness to ship at low prices. With the gradual arrival of winter storage pace in the later stage, demand for manganese ore may gradually improve. As of December 28th, Tianjin Hong Kong Macao Block is priced at 36 yuan/ton (down 0.4 yuan/ton), Gabon is priced at 34.8 yuan/ton (unchanged), and South Africa’s semi carbonated carbon is priced at 30.5 yuan/ton (up 0.1 yuan/ton); Qinzhou Hong Kong Macao block is priced around 36.3 yuan/ton (down 0.7 yuan/ton), Gabon is priced around 35.3 yuan/ton (down 0.7 yuan/ton), and South African semi carbonates are priced around 31 yuan/ton (up 0.3 yuan/ton).

In December 2023, the electrolytic manganese market first rose and then stabilized. In the first half of the month, the electrolytic manganese market slightly rebounded, and the mainstream market price rose to 12300-12500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, some southern enterprises had production reduction plans. Under the influence of tight supply expectations, enterprises had a strong mentality of price support, and factory prices were raised one after another. It was difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and market expectations improved, driving up spot market prices. Due to the lack of significant increase in downstream demand in the mid to late period, the spot market without demand support has little room for further upward growth. Under the mentality of supply-demand game, the market maintained a temporary stable operation for about half a month. As of the end of the month, there has still been no significant change in supply and demand. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, the overall trading volume in the spot market is slightly sluggish, and the mentality of smelters to raise prices is still strong. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills purchase on demand, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance. Overall, the market lacks clear guidance and sentiment is weak. It is expected that the spot market will operate weakly in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

In December, shrouded in haze, the sluggish silicon and manganese market continued. In December, the bidding price for silicon and manganese fell, causing increased losses for manufacturers. Production enthusiasm was low, inventory still needed to be consumed, high prices were difficult to achieve, and market confidence was insufficient. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6250 yuan/ton on December 28th, with an average market price of 6215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% compared to the beginning of the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 26th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 133600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.60% compared to December 1st.

The domestic lithium hydroxide market continued its downward trend in December. Within the month, the upstream lithium carbonate price weakened, the upstream spodumene concentrate market operated weakly, and the cost side continued to decline. The downstream demand for high nickel materials on the demand side was insufficient, and the market shipments were average. Merchants carefully followed up on low prices when picking up goods. The lithium hydroxide market transactions were mainly long-term contract orders, and the spot market atmosphere was light. Holders stimulated orders at low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on December 26th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 95800.00, a decrease of 22.37% compared to December 1st (123400.00). The lithium carbonate market declined in December, weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, current cost support is weak, downstream procurement is slow to follow up, market trading enthusiasm is not high, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market was operating weakly in December. From December 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first rose from 6787 yuan/ton and then fell to 6775 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 0.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.52%.

At the beginning of the month, some regions experienced an increase in freight rates, which led to a slight increase in delivery prices. However, the factory’s shipment situation was weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethanol market is operating weakly. In the first half of the month, the weather conditions in some areas caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in enterprise orders and prices. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations. In mid month, snowfall affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation. As the end of the month approaches, the domestic ethanol market is currently weak in supply and demand, with some regions experiencing a recovery in equipment and average demand.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. In mid December, the market volume of corn in the production area continued to increase. In addition, the new season corn was once again abundant, and the domestic corn market supply became more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories were relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continued to be weak. Under the strong market supply and weak demand pressure, the domestic corn market prices continued to operate weakly.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. There is sufficient ethanol supply in the East China region. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in December. The ethyl acetate project in Anhui region is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the transportation and delivery situation between regions in terms of supply and demand are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 112.50 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 35.34% year-on-year. On December 24th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a slight decline, with weakened cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1772.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1778.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.27% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level. The market price is 702.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell 35.55% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market has been consolidating and operating, with spot prices stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.54% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market is experiencing a price stalemate this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continues to rise. The weekly industry operating rate is about 90%, and the weekly production has increased synchronously, while the market supply remains abundant. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the mentality of petrochemical plants is weak. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Recently, EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods. Upstream ethylene levels out, while vinyl acetate tends to be stronger, providing decent cost support for EVA.

The weak performance on the demand side of EVA this week continues. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials in the early stage have played a role in driving investment, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods. The overall stocking operation on the market places orders as needed, and the acceptance of high priced goods by enterprises is average. Prices are deadlocked due to market pull from different directions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA price has remained stagnant this week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load is high, and downstream demand is weak. Market confidence has weakened, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. As the end of the year approaches, the expectation for increased consumption in the future is relatively low, and the market is unable to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain stagnant and consolidating in the short term.