1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly increased this week. On June 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton, and on Friday (June 7th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.88% from last week and 42.76% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions increased by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously)

3、 Future Market Forecast

Crude oil rebounded, and spot pure benzene fluctuated around 9280 yuan/ton in the night trading. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will consolidate at a high level in the morning.

4、 Data calendar

Crude oil: The European Central Bank has lowered interest rates for the first time in five years, and the pressure on high interest rates has eased. Coupled with the increased probability of the Federal Reserve cutting interest rates in September, international oil prices have risen. NYMEX crude oil futures contract 07 rose by $1.48/barrel or 2.00% to 75.55; ICE oil futures contract 08 rose $1.46 per barrel, or 1.86%, at 79.87. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2407, rose 4.0 to 574 yuan/barrel, and rose 10.9 to 584.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the atmosphere of pure benzene negotiations in East China was flat, with contract transactions being the main focus. Some refineries in Shandong have voluntarily lowered their shipments, while some refineries are sticking to bottom prices to sell their goods. Several factories auctioned off, and the transaction volume continued to shrink.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash increased in May. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2030 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the month was around 2170 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.9%, an increase of 2.36% compared to the same period last year. On May 30th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 110.77, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 41.42% from the highest point of 189.10 points (2021-11-07) in the cycle, and an increase of 75.41% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyishe, the overall price of soda ash has been relatively strong this month. The price of soda ash in the central China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2000-2200 yuan/ton for light soda ash. The price of soda ash in the eastern China region is strong, with a mainstream market price of around 2150-2300 yuan/ton for light soda ash. The data shows that the operating rate of soda ash during the week was around 82%. In terms of inventory, this week’s pure alkali inventory is about 810000 tons, and the production of pure alkali is about 680000 tons.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the spot price of glass has been rising this month. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 18.65 yuan/square meter, and at the end of the month, the average price was 19.86 yuan/square meter. The price increased within the month, with a magnitude of 6.49%. The spot prices in the glass market fluctuate. The main focus is on replenishing inventory in case of urgent needs, with a strong resistance to high prices.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 21st week of 2024 (5.20-5.24), there were a total of 3 products that rose, 1 product that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main rising commodities include: light soda ash (1.91%), PVC (1.28%), and caustic soda (0.25%); The main commodities falling are baking soda (-0.84%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.37%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that according to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of light soda ash has been relatively strong recently, and the production of soda ash enterprises has decreased. In terms of downstream demand, with the recent increase in prices, more purchases have been made on demand, with moderate replenishment of inventory. However, there has not been much pressure on enterprises to ship goods in the near future. Based on the comprehensive analysis of supply and demand, it is expected that soda ash will continue to operate steadily in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by Business Society, the carbon black market price continued to fluctuate and decline this month, with a price drop of 500-600 yuan/ton at the end of the month compared to the beginning of the month. As of May 31, the domestic N220 carbon black market price was at 9166 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw materials, the price trend of high-temperature coal tar market has declined this month. As of the 31st, the price of coal tar was 4425 yuan/ton. Recently, the profitability of coking enterprises has been decent, and their enthusiasm for starting production has significantly increased. This has greatly boosted the production momentum of coking enterprises, leading to a significant increase in the market supply of coal tar. The downstream main product coal tar market has a long-term oversupply, and the market situation is weak and difficult to improve, which brings a strong negative atmosphere to the high-temperature coal tar raw material market. This market atmosphere has formed a strong pressure on raw material prices, and it is expected that terminal demand will be weak and difficult to improve in the short term. The overall trend of coal tar prices is weak, and the support for carbon black cost is weak.

Production situation: The supply of carbon black in the market is relatively sufficient this month, and most carbon black enterprises have maintained stable production. Some shutdown and maintenance enterprises have gradually resumed production, and the operating rate has increased.

In terms of terminals, the downstream tire industry is currently in a seasonal off-season, with weak demand in both domestic and international tire replacement markets. The export volume of foreign trade is also showing a trend of reduction, leading to serious inventory accumulation in the market. The sales performance of the downstream rubber product industry is lackluster, with a significant decrease in demand for raw materials and procurement enthusiasm. Affected by this, the shipment volume of carbon black enterprises has become sluggish, and the momentum of price increase is clearly lacking in momentum.

In terms of import and export: According to customs data, China imported 31800 tons of carbon black in April 2024, an increase of 50.79% year-on-year and 11.9% month on month; From January to April 2024, China’s cumulative imports of carbon black reached 108600 tons, an increase of 36.72% compared to the same period last year, with imports increasing by approximately 29000 tons. In April 2024, China’s carbon black exports were approximately 57600 tons, an increase of 15.67% year-on-year and a decrease of 31.87% month on month. From January to April 2024, China’s cumulative exports of carbon black reached 312200 tons, an increase of 62.11% compared to the same period last year, and the export volume increased by approximately 120000 tons.

Future outlook: The market price of high-temperature coal tar is weak, and the support for the cost side of carbon black is relatively limited; At the same time, the downstream tire and rubber product industry’s shipment volume remains stable but growth is weak, leading to a weakened willingness to purchase high priced carbon black, and often holding a price pressure attitude when inquiring. At present, there is no clear positive signal on the demand side, and the carbon black market is expected to continue to maintain the current weak operating trend.

In May, the dichloromethane market first rose and then fell, with an overall upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 31, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2395 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.68% from 2310 yuan/ton in early May, and a decrease of 4.58% from the high point of 2510 yuan/ton in the cycle. In May, the production of domestic methane chloride plants slightly increased, and some enterprises had a slight increase in dichloromethane inventory at the end of the month; In May, the methanol market for dichloromethane raw materials fluctuated and rose, and the price range of liquid chlorine reorganized, continuing to support the cost of dichloromethane; The downstream refrigerant of dichloromethane started operating at a low level, and the dichloromethane terminal just needed support. At the end of May, the dichloromethane market slightly declined.

In May, the production of domestic methane chloride plants increased, and in the second half of the month, the pressure on the supply side of dichloromethane increased. The production of plants gradually increased from 7.1% in early May to around 7.9% by the end of the month.

In May, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and rose, while the price range of liquid chlorine stabilized. The cost of dichloromethane continued to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the spot price of methanol was 2761 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.15% from the beginning of the month’s 2651 yuan/ton, and a decrease of 8.55% from the high point of 3020 yuan/ton in the cycle; At the end of May, the price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 500 yuan/ton, a significant increase from 300 yuan/ton in the middle of the month, and remained unchanged from 500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Downstream R 32 production has remained stable, with terminals receiving goods on demand. At the beginning of the month, merchants actively stocked up, but later on, as dichloromethane rose to a high level and the supply side relaxed again, merchants were mainly wait-and-see in the later stage. Currently, downstream demand for dichloromethane is mainly supported, and the market atmosphere is flat.

Market forecast: Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that some companies still face pressure on inventory, and terminal inquiries are cautious; The prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to support the cost of dichloromethane, and overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate in the later period.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 31st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3983 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the average price of alumina in the market was 3500 yuan/ton, an increase of 13.81% compared to the beginning of the month.

Upstream aspect

Recently, northern mines have continued to suspend and reduce production, and there is no expectation of large-scale resumption of production, which has led to a tight supply of mines and affected the operating rate of alumina. As of the beginning of this month, the slow improvement of bauxite supply capacity and the impact of routine equipment maintenance have resulted in no further increase in alumina production capacity. At present, the insufficient supply capacity of bauxite and equipment maintenance are still the main factors restricting the increase in production of alumina enterprises in the southern region.

Affected by the news that Rio Tinto Group has announced that its Australian Yarwun smelters and Queensland Alumina Limited have experienced force majeure in their alumina shipments, with prices skyrocketing due to shortages in natural gas inventory/supply for power generation. Due to uncontrollable factors such as insufficient natural gas supply and overall shortage of overseas alumina spot, the execution of some contracts between the two alumina plants has been hindered in the short term. Domestic alumina prices are strong.

Downstream aspect

As of now, the entire domestic electrolytic aluminum industry has basically reached its peak operating level, and there is basically no growth space above. The long-term interference factors may be the phased reduction and shutdown of aluminum production capacity in Yunnan region due to the alternation of abundant and dry seasons.

The inventory of aluminum oxide in electrolytic aluminum enterprises continues to decline, especially for some individual electrolytic aluminum enterprises. Although spot orders and long orders have recovered, the inventory of aluminum oxide remains at the low level in previous years.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the supply of domestically produced ore in the upstream continues to be tight, and the force majeure factors of foreign alumina giants have affected the supply of imported alumina, all of which are the reasons for the increase in alumina prices this month. It is expected that the price of alumina will fluctuate at a high level.

Price trend

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, the BOPP market fell first and then rose this month. As of May 30th, the price of 18 μ BOPP film was around 9816.67 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.9% compared to the beginning of the month. The highest point of the price appeared at the end of this month, at 9816.67 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared at the beginning of the month, at a price of about 9633.33 yuan/ton.

quotations analysis

From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic producers and traders is around 7964.29 yuan/ton, which is about 1.55% higher than the price level at the beginning of the month (7842.86 yuan/ton). The highest point of the price appeared in the latter half of the year, at 7964.29 yuan/ton, and the lowest point appeared in the middle of the first half, at a price of about 7712.50 yuan/ton. The cost side fluctuates and rises, while crude oil prices fluctuate, providing strong support for BOPP prices.

In terms of supply: After the holiday, the maintenance equipment has been gradually restarted, and the supply is gradually increasing, with sufficient supply on the supply side.

In terms of demand: fluctuations in crude oil prices, downstream products stocking up ahead of price increases, increased willingness to purchase, improved trading atmosphere, and stronger support on the demand side.

Future Market Forecast

The cost side of BOPP fluctuates and rises, and the market trading atmosphere improves. Then, overall demand is weak, and it is expected that BOPP prices will rise slightly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6680 yuan/ton on May 1st. On May 29th, the reference average price of 85% hot process phosphoric acid in China was 6600 yuan/ton. This month, the domestic price of hot process phosphoric acid decreased by 1.20%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the reference average price of 85% wet process phosphoric acid in China was 6950 yuan/ton on May 1st, and 6816 yuan/ton on May 29th. This month, the domestic wet process phosphoric acid price has dropped by 1.92%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of phosphoric acid has dropped this month. In the first half of May, the price of phosphoric acid showed a weak decline. The price of raw material yellow phosphorus has been lowered, cost support has weakened, and the price of thermal phosphoric acid has followed the trend of raw materials downward. Downstream rigid procurement, with a resistance to high prices. The demand for wet process phosphoric acid in the market is stable, and the market is steadily consolidating. In the second half of May, the price of phosphoric acid slightly decreased after an increase. The high prices of raw materials have been consolidated, with support from the cost side. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, with limited new orders in the market. As of May 29th, the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Hubei region is around 6500-6800 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 85 thermal process phosphoric acid in Sichuan region is around 6400-6700 yuan/ton. The domestic market quotation for 85 wet process phosphoric acid is around 6300-7200 yuan/ton.

Market for raw material yellow phosphorus. In May, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fell, and the overall trading situation in the yellow phosphorus market was average. In the first half of the year, the domestic yellow phosphorus market was light, with a downward focus on the market. Downstream procurement was mainly driven by price pressures, and many manufacturers did not provide external quotations, with negotiations being the main focus. At present, the trading situation in the yellow phosphorus field is still good in the middle of the month. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, and the inventory is controllable. Yellow phosphorus enterprises mainly raise prices. In the latter half of the month, the price of yellow phosphorus in the market fluctuated. High end prices will be lowered, while low-end prices will be adjusted. The overall procurement is still relatively cautious, with a stalemate between upstream and downstream operations. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-22900 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

Market for raw material phosphate rock. The phosphate ore market slightly improved in May. The price increase within the month is 0.58%. At present, the trading atmosphere inside the phosphate ore field is mild, and the supply and demand sides provide stable market support. In the short term, the domestic phosphate ore market will mainly operate in a stable, medium, and strong manner. As of May 29th, the domestic market price for 30 grade phosphate ore is around 1030-1100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the phosphoric acid market has been steadily consolidating and operating recently. At present, the price of raw material yellow phosphorus is stagnant and consolidating, with average cost support. There is insufficient trading in the hot process phosphoric acid market, and there is still support for the demand side of wet process phosphoric acid. It is expected that the short-term phosphoric acid market will be weak and mainly operated through consolidation.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the market price of benzoic acid first rose and then fell in May. As of May 28th, the average market price of benzoic acid was 9316 yuan/ton, an increase from 9100 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with an overall increase of 2.38%.

In terms of cost

Mixed xylene: The price of mixed xylene in China has risen after a decline this month. On May 27th, the price of mixed xylene was 7660 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of mixed xylene was 7680 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.26% from the beginning of the month. The concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market in early May has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market. In the latter half of the year, international crude oil fluctuated upwards, mixed xylene port inventories decreased, supply decreased, and the market rose.

Acetic acid: The domestic price of acetic acid rose first and then fell this month. On May 28th, the price of acetic acid was 3150 yuan/ton, and on May 1st, the price of acetic acid was 3250 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.07% from the beginning of the month. In the first half of the month, the supply and demand of acetic acid were strong, inventory continued to decline, and prices remained strong, with a mid month increase of 4.49%. However, as downstream acetic acid companies resisted high prices, the market price of acetic acid gradually fell in the second half of the month.

In terms of demand

Downstream polyester shipments are slow, and inventory continues to operate at high levels to alleviate recent inventory pressure. Factories have concentrated production cuts, indicating a strong intention to support the market. Therefore, it is necessary to replenish raw materials appropriately and continue to stock up on demand. There is a possibility of a certain downward trend in the trading center on the market.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the cost support for isophthalic acid is limited, there is no significant fluctuation in the fundamentals, the purchasing enthusiasm is poor, and the overall market atmosphere is relatively light. It is expected that the market price of isophthalic acid will remain relatively stable.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the BOPP market prices rose last week. As of May 27th, the mainstream quoted price for 18 μ m BOPP film by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 9783.33 yuan/ton, an increase of about 1.56% from last week’s average price and about 1.56% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP increased first and then decreased this month. The mainstream quoted price of T30S (wire drawing) by domestic manufacturers and traders is around 7907.14 yuan/ton, which is 0.82% higher than the beginning of this month (7742.86 yuan/ton). The price of raw material PP first rises and then falls, providing some support for the cost side of BOPP prices.

In terms of supply: the operating load rate of membrane enterprises increased slightly, the supply side increased, and the inventory pressure of membrane enterprises increased.

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises mostly restock for urgent needs, with weak willingness to restock, cautious procurement, weak transaction volume, and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

The overall price of upstream raw materials has fluctuated upwards, and the cost side has increased support for the market. However, downstream demand enterprises are cautious in procurement, mainly restocking, and transactions are weak. It is expected that BOPP prices will experience narrow fluctuations and consolidation in the near future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 24th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6925.00 yuan/ton, which is basically unchanged compared to Monday’s price.

The acrylic acid market is mainly stable this week. Recently, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated narrowly, with limited cost support. The utilization rate of production capacity in the supply side industry has slightly improved, and downstream procurement is cautious. Just in need, the follow-up is average, and factories tend to maintain a stable trend, with some offering discounts and receiving orders. Dealer quotations are mainly negotiated with the company.

Cost side:

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the reference price for propylene on May 23 was 6726.60, a decrease of 1.09% compared to May 1 (6800.60). The recent fluctuations in raw material propylene prices have had little impact on the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

The acrylic acid analyst from Business Society believes that the current supply side inventory pressure is temporarily controllable, and downstream inquiries and purchases are mainly based on demand. The market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and the short-term cost impact may still be limited. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will stabilize and operate in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of May 23, the average market price of phenylenediamine was 38433 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.43% compared to last week.

In terms of cost

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has increased this week. On May 23rd, the price of pure benzene was 8833 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.04% from last week. The domestic supply of pure benzene has decreased, driven by the styrene market, downstream transactions have been more active, and port destocking has accelerated. Short term spot shortages are difficult to change.

Nitric acid: Domestic nitric acid prices have decreased this week. On May 23, the price of nitric acid was 1866 yuan/ton, and on May 16, it was 1913 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.45% from last week. At present, the supply side of the concentrated nitric acid market is sufficient, and the cost trend has slightly increased. The market mainly sells orders, and the market transaction situation is poor

Recently, the textile market has entered a traditional off-season, and foreign trade orders have also declined. The demand for dyes is not optimistic. The downstream epoxy resin market is in urgent need of follow-up, with limited trading volume. It is expected that the market for meta phenylenediamine will operate steadily with a weak trend.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic furfural (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market fluctuated and declined this week. On May 11th, the average quoted price of furfural was 9575.00 yuan/ton (including tax), and on May 17th, it was 9425.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.57%.

Cost side: Currently, the main production of furfural in China is corn cobs, and sulfuric acid is generally used as the catalyst. The domestic sulfuric acid market prices have fallen this week. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of sulfuric acid in China was 247 yuan/ton on May 13th, and 242 yuan/ton on May 17th, a decrease of 1.98%. The short-term sulfuric acid market is mainly sluggish, mainly due to insufficient demand and difficulty in digesting products. In the later stage, it depends on the production situation of terminal fertilizer enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic furfuryl alcohol (national standard, industrial grade, 250KG/barrel) market has declined this week. On May 11th, the average quoted price of furfuryl alcohol was 10175.00 yuan/ton (including tax), while on May 17th, it was 10150.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.25%.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Furfural Products, the upstream sulfuric acid market for furfural continues to decline, while the downstream furfural alcohol market fluctuates slightly. Furfural supply and demand are both weak, and it is expected that furfural may experience a weak decline in the near future.

This week (5.12-5.17), the price of monoethanolamine slightly decreased, with a range of 20 yuan/ton. According to statistics from Business Society, as of May 17th, the mainstream market price of monoethanolamine (with a domestic content of 99.9%) was between 10300-10600 yuan/ton, with an average price of 10480.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.19% from the previous week.

In terms of cost:

This week, the price of ethylene oxide has slightly decreased, at a rate of 100 yuan/ton. According to data from Business Society, as of May 17th, the average price of ethylene oxide in the domestic market was 6900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.43% from last week’s average price of 7000 yuan/ton; From a regional perspective, the epoxy ethane market in East China is priced at 6900 yuan/ton externally; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the South China market is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in North China is 6900 yuan/ton; The listed price of ethylene oxide in the central China market is 6900 yuan/ton.

From the industrial chain diagram, ethanolamine, as a downstream product of ethylene oxide, accounts for 11%. Recently, the production enterprises of ethanolamine have been stable, with moderate profit levels and no significant fluctuations. Due to its wide range of uses, monoethanolamine has been applied in various fields such as textiles, printing and dyeing, pharmaceuticals, cosmetics, etc. Therefore, its market demand is relatively stable and there has been no significant growth point.

On May 15th, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong region rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the daily increase in the main production area of Shandong was 2.06%. The main reason is that some equipment in the northern main production area has been repaired due to malfunctions, and the contraction of the supply surface has brought benefits. On Wednesday, major factories in Shandong and surrounding Hebei and Henan provinces generally raised prices by 50-100 yuan/ton. The market has a strong atmosphere of speculation, and dealer quotes have followed suit.

Overall

The market for monoethanolamine has remained stable with a slight decline, while the market price for raw material ethylene oxide has stabilized after a decline. Although the liquid ammonia market has seen a slight upward trend, its increase is not enough to support a significant rebound in monoethanolamine prices. The demand for monoethanolamine in the market varies, with downstream users mainly purchasing on demand, and some market prices have been lowered. Further observation of downstream demand for monoethanolamine is needed for subsequent price changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from May 13th to 17th, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11537 yuan/ton to 11262 yuan/ton, with a 2.38% decrease in price during the cycle, a 3.74% month on month decrease, and a 40.45% year-on-year increase. Some production enterprises in certain regions have increased their exports, while merchants have clear expectations for domestic production growth in the later period. The downward trend in the market has intensified the cautious attitude of downstream inquiries, resulting in a weak transaction atmosphere and further affecting the downward pressure on supplier prices.

Cost side: In terms of crude oil, international oil prices have overall declined, and Federal Reserve officials have hinted that interest rate cuts will not come soon. The market is concerned that high interest rates will continue to pressure the economy and demand, and the International Energy Agency has lowered its global demand growth forecast. As of May 16th, the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was reported at $83.27 per barrel.

In terms of naphtha, the market for naphtha continues to decline, and international oil prices are weak, exacerbating market bearish sentiment and weakening cost support. There has been no actual improvement in the demand for terminal ethylene cracking, and it is still in a stagnant state. As of May 17th, the benchmark price of Shangyishe Naphtha is 8054.00 yuan/ton. The cost side of butadiene is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Sinopec’s various sales companies have lowered the listed price of butadiene twice to 11400 yuan/ton. The maintenance device has been restarted, and there is a production plan for the new production capacity, resulting in an increase in output. The supply of butadiene is affected by negative factors..

On the demand side, although there are signs of a downward shift in industrial chain profits, downstream industries have not seen a significant improvement in production. Coupled with expectations for future supply growth, market fundamentals are mainly bearish, dragging the market down continuously. Negative factors affecting the demand for butadiene.

As of the closing price on May 16th, the external price of Asian butadiene remained stable: FOB South Korea reported 1375-1385 US dollars/ton; China CFR report 1385-1395 USD/ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe fell: FOB Rotterdam closed at $1155-1165 per ton; FD Northwest Europe closed at 1065-1075 euros/ton, down 10 euros/ton.

In the future market forecast, Zhejiang Petrochemical 2 # and Fujian United and other facilities have plans to restart in the next cycle. Domestic production is expected to increase, and although the profit of the industrial chain has shifted downwards, downstream industry construction has not improved significantly. Coupled with weak performance in the external market, there is little positive support in the market. Business Society Butadiene Analysts predict that the domestic butadiene market may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, as of May 16th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43500 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42166.67 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate is mainly weak, with upstream prices of iron phosphate remaining stable and limited growth in lithium carbonate. The cost support for lithium iron phosphate is average, and downstream demand is poor. Currently, the supply and demand balance in the lithium iron phosphate market is mainly dominant.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: After the May Day holiday, the upstream lithium carbonate price has remained stable with a strong trend, inventory has remained high, downstream procurement enthusiasm is insufficient, and the overall market transaction atmosphere is cold. It is expected that the short-term spot price of lithium carbonate will remain stable, and the upstream iron phosphate price will remain stable with a small range of price fluctuations. It is expected that the current price trend will remain the main trend in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In summary, the current market supply is sufficient, downstream demand is insufficient, upstream lithium carbonate and iron phosphate prices lack upward momentum, and lithium iron phosphate lacks upward momentum. It is expected that lithium iron phosphate will maintain its current trend in the short term, with the price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate remaining around 43500 yuan/ton and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate remaining around 42200 yuan/ton.

Recently (5.1-5.11), the trichloromethane market in Shandong Province has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 11th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2750 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.72% from 2770 yuan/ton on the 1st. The high prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine continue to support the cost of trichloromethane. Downstream production remains low, while terminal procurement performance is mediocre; The market for trichloromethane has slightly declined.

Recently (5.1-5.11), domestic methane chloride production has slightly increased.

Recently (5.1-5.11), the prices of raw materials methanol and liquid chlorine have been running at high levels, and the cost of trichloromethane continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of May 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2684 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.23% from 2651 yuan/ton on the first day. As of May 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region is around 500 yuan/ton, which is higher than the 400 yuan/ton at the end of April.

Recently (5.1-5.11), downstream refrigerant R22 has been operating at a low level, providing weak support for the demand for trichloromethane.

Business Society methane chloride data analyst believes that the cost of trichloromethane continues to support; The downstream refrigerant industry is operating at a low level, with limited support for demand for trichloromethane. As the downstream peak season gradually ends, it is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to be weak in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has been weak and declining recently (5.1-5.11). On May 11th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.08% from 7680 yuan/ton on the first day.

International crude oil weak volatility, mixed xylene cost support weakened

Recently (5.1-5.11), the concentrated release of bearish news in the international crude oil market has put pressure on the risk premium of crude oil, causing weak fluctuations in international crude oil prices and weakening support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of May 10th, WTI06 contract settlement is $79.26/barrel; Brent 07 contract settlement is $83.88 per barrel. The significant decline in Asian mixed xylene prices has had a bearish impact on the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $951 to $952 per ton as of May 10th.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has significantly decreased, and the pressure on port supply has slightly eased. It is understood that as of May 9th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 55000 tons, significantly lower than the end of April.

Starting production of xylene and increasing the required support for mixed xylene recovery

Part of the preliminary maintenance equipment has gradually restarted operation, and the domestic PX production has significantly rebounded. As of May 10th, PX production has increased to around 790%. However, in the later stage, domestic PX units such as Weilian Chemical and Ningbo Daxie are planned to be shut down for maintenance. In addition, the 400000 ton unit of SK Line 2 in South Korea is planned to be repaired for one and a half months, making it difficult to significantly improve PX production in the later stage, and the support for mixed xylene is limited. The price of PX in the Asian outer market has significantly decreased, which has a bearish impact on the domestic PX market. As of May 10th, the closing price in the Asian region is 987-989 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1012-1014 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The domestic phthalic anhydride plant is operating steadily, with normal shipments of ortho phthalic anhydride starting from Tongling, Anhui. The 100000 ton phthalic anhydride plant of Xinyang Group is operating steadily, while Shandong Hongxin phthalic anhydride is operating normally. Recently, the domestic phthalic anhydride operating rate is around 60%, and the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal. The production situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has slightly decreased, and the market of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has remained low. As a result, the price of ortho phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of May 10th, the operating rate of refineries nationwide has remained around 70%. There is some support for the improvement of mixed xylene, but the later improvement support is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that in the short term, international crude oil will experience weak consolidation, and the cost support for mixed xylene will weaken; The increase in downstream PX production has certain support for mixed xylene,But the support for later improvement is limited. The mixed blending and phthalic anhydride industries are operating at a low level, and the overall support for the demand for mixed xylene is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will first be suppressed and then increase in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of May 9th, the average market price of resorcinol was 44750 yuan/ton.

Pure benzene: The price of pure benzene in China has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of pure benzene was 8758 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.98% compared to last week. The transaction of pure benzene is still acceptable, and there is sufficient supply on the market.

Nitric acid: The domestic price of nitric acid has slightly increased this week. On May 9th, the price of nitric acid was 1876 yuan/ton, and on May 2nd, it was 1856 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.08% compared to last week. At present, the market atmosphere is active, and downstream demand continues to improve.

M-phenylenediamine: The price of m-phenylenediamine in China has increased this week. On May 9th, the price of phenylenediamine was 38600 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.73% compared to last week. The demand for dyes, pesticide intermediates, and other products in downstream markets has improved.

The trading volume of resorcinol in the market this week was very low. The cost support is strengthening, and the downstream resin tire industry lacks information guidance, leading to a recovery in the dye and pesticide intermediate markets. It is expected that the market situation for resorcinol will be relatively strong.

Recent trends in urea prices

This month, the domestic urea market has experienced ups and downs. At the beginning of the month, the urea market continued the inertia downward trend of the previous month. Subsequently, due to supply tightening and an increase in factory orders, urea prices continued to rise, and the upward trend continued until mid month. In the latter half of the month, the market fell in a bearish atmosphere of the Indian market. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong Province increased from 2415 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 2435 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a growth rate of 0.86%.

From the supply side, the average operating rate of urea enterprises this month is around 80%, and the daily production of urea in China is about 180000 tons, with supply slightly tightening compared to the previous month. Within the month, the factory prices of mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong rebounded after falling, and the overall change was not significant, with the fluctuation controlled within 100 yuan/ton.

From the upstream market perspective:

Liquefied natural gas: In April, the liquefied natural gas market showed a strong upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 28th, the average price of liquefied natural gas in China was 4114 yuan/ton, which is 3870 yuan/ton compared to the average price on April 1st. The increase in domestic liquefied natural gas prices this month was 6.30%. High natural gas prices provide support for downstream urea production.

Coal: Coal has been operating weakly this month. Taking thermal coal as an example, prices fell in April, with a decrease of 2.54%. Overall, normal production and sales are maintained, and the market is operating weakly. The implementation of long-term cooperative shipping is still the main focus, and the overall supply level of coal has slightly decreased. Traders tend to maintain a cautious wait-and-see attitude due to their average willingness to ship due to their uncertainty about the future market. The negative performance of upstream coal has alleviated certain cost pressures for downstream coal urea enterprises.

Liquid ammonia: In April, the domestic liquid ammonia market was mainly volatile and fell, emerging from a trend of first rising and then falling. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, liquid ammonia recorded a decline of 2.93% in April. At the end of the month, the mainstream quotation in Shandong region is between 2800-3000 yuan/ton. In the future, the tight supply pattern in the northern main production areas may continue for a period of time, and ammonia prices will be supported on the supply side. On the demand side, the replenishment in the early stage is gradually ending, agricultural demand is gradually falling, industrial demand remains in demand, and may form constraints on ammonia prices in the future. The supply-demand game will intensify in the future, with narrow price fluctuations, and the impact on urea prices will be relatively small in the future.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand has weakened, while industrial demand is average. Spring plowing is gradually coming to an end, with sporadic fertilization as the main focus. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises have started production at a low level, and the industry lacks confidence in trading and investment, with a focus on essential procurement. The market price of melamine fell in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 28th, the average price of melamine enterprises was 7025.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.44% compared to the price on April 1st.

Looking at the future: urea analysts from Business Society believe that in May, it is expected that the urea market in Shandong will maintain a narrow adjustment pattern. Although upstream raw material support for urea is strong, downstream agricultural demand may slow down due to seasonal weakening of procurement, with industrial demand being the main focus, especially exports being affected by insufficient Indian procurement, and prices may loosen.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market price of tetrahydrofuran in China slightly declined in April. At the end of the month, the price of tetrahydrofuran remained at 13333.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.23% from the initial price of 13500 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year increase of 3.13%.

Supply side: In April, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors slightly decreased, with average inventory levels and average on-site sales.

Cost side: The maleic anhydride factory mainly executes preliminary orders, and the overall market trading is average, with a slight increase in the market in April. Downstream digestion of early orders is the main focus, with a strong market wait-and-see sentiment. New orders are limited, and procurement increases at the end of the month, leading to an upward trend in the market. As of the end of the month, the ex factory price of solid anhydride in Shandong region is around 6900 yuan/ton, and the ex factory price of liquid anhydride is around 6500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of 1,4-butanediol has declined, with rigid demand contracts trading and light spot trading. The price of 1,4-butanediol has dropped from 9328.57 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9071.43 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 2.76%. The domestic BDO market is weak and downward, with light spot trading; The pressure on on-site inventory is still present and entering a new cycle, causing pressure on holding manufacturers to ship goods. Negotiations for discounts on actual orders have led to a weak market focus and a downward trend. The upstream raw material market prices have fallen, with insufficient cost support. Due to the impact of supply and demand, the price of tetrahydrofuran has been negatively affected, resulting in a slight decrease in tetrahydrofuran prices.

On the demand side: In April, the price trend of spandex in the market declined. At the end of the month, the price of spandex was 29875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the initial price of 30375 yuan/ton. In recent years, the concentration of the domestic spandex industry has been continuously increasing, and the industry’s leading effect is obvious. The expansion of production capacity has significantly overlapped with the average performance of downstream terminal textile demand in recent years. The downstream spandex market is weak and declining, and downstream customers are less actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran, resulting in a slight decline in the tetrahydrofuran market.

Looking at the future: In the short term, the BDO market is weak and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream spandex market has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened. Business Society’s tetrahydrofuran analyst believes that the short-term domestic tetrahydrofuran market is not supported by favorable conditions, and it is expected that there is still room for a downward trend in the future.

The market for butadiene rubber slightly declined in April. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 13260 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.57% from 13610 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

In April, the market price of butadiene remained high, while the cost center of butadiene rubber remained high; The overall load of butadiene rubber is not high, and the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber is not high; Downstream tire production has slightly declined from a high level, and demand has weakened in the face of rigid demand support for butadiene rubber. In addition, downstream resistance to high priced sources has led to a high level decline in butadiene rubber production. As of April 30th, the mainstream price of butadiene rubber market in East China is 13200-13400 yuan/ton.

In the first half of April, the domestic production of butadiene rubber slightly increased; In the second half of April, the domestic production of butadiene rubber slightly decreased, and as of the end of April, the production of butadiene rubber plants was around 55%.

In April, the price of butadiene remained high, and there is still strong support for the cost of butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of April 30th, the price of butadiene was 11712 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.63% from 11525 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Demand side: Downstream tire production has slightly weakened, weakening support for butadiene rubber. It is understood that as of the end of April, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 80%; The production of all steel tires by tire companies in Shandong region increased from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 7.1% in the middle of the month, and then continued to decline to 6.4% at the end of the month; Downstream customers tend to stock up on demand, resulting in lackluster market transactions.

Market forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of raw material butadiene is still at a high level, and the cost support for butadiene rubber is still strong; The overall production of butadiene rubber remains at a low level, and there are also plans for later maintenance and restart, resulting in variables in the supply of butadiene rubber; At present, downstream tire enterprises have experienced slight fluctuations in production, with the main support for the rigid demand of butadiene rubber. Overall, the butadiene rubber market may narrow down in the later stage under the support of cost and low production.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan region has remained stable recently (4.22-4.30). As of April 30th, the average market price in Henan region was 7550 yuan/ton, which is unchanged compared to the average price of 7550 yuan/ton on April 22nd. The price remains unchanged throughout the cycle.

Recently, the ice crystal market has been operating on a wait-and-see basis, and enterprise ice crystal quotations have remained stable. The overall resumption of work and production in the upstream fluorite market is progressing slowly, with strong consolidation of fluorite prices and tight supply of raw materials, resulting in strong pressure on the cost of cryolite. However, due to the obvious resistance of the downstream towards high priced cryolite and the limited trading atmosphere in the market, the downstream market is mostly bearish. Therefore, with strong raw material prices, most cryolite manufacturers still offer stable prices. As of April 30th, the ex factory quotation for cryolite in Shandong region is 7000-8500 yuan/ton; The factory quotation for cryolite in Henan region is between 7200-8000 yuan/ton.

The upstream fluorite market is relatively strong and rising, with an average market price of 3675.00 yuan/ton as of April 30, an increase of 1.03% compared to the price of 3637.50 yuan/ton on April 22. The game situation in the domestic fluorite industry still exists, with tension in upstream mining and the continuous elimination of outdated mines. In terms of new mines, the progress of resuming work and production in the fluorite market is slow. In addition, recent national departments have issued price inquiries to rectify fluorite mines, and some mines have undergone safety hazard inspections. The shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises, and the supply of goods on site is tight, resulting in a continuous increase in fluorite prices.

Market forecast: The upstream market of cryolite is relatively strong, with high cost pressure on cryolite and a positive impact on mentality. Downstream demand is average and there is resistance to cryolite prices. Actual market trading is limited, but facing the continuous rise in upstream prices, cryolite enterprises may face pressure to increase their prices,

Price trend

Recently, the domestic EVA market has continued to be weak, with month end spot prices hovering horizontally. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 29th, the benchmark price of EVA in China is 11333.33 yuan/ton.

Cause analysis

The weakness of the domestic EVA market continues, and on the supply side, the load on domestic EVA enterprises is around 70%. At the end of the month, there was still news of a reduction in negative prices for petrochemical plants, leading to a decline in market supply and a decrease in some auction sources. The pricing of manufacturers remains stable, and overall, the support from EVA suppliers for spot goods is average.

From the demand side perspective, recent EVA terminal enterprises have seen significant stability and small fluctuations in production, and their stocking situation remains unchanged in terms of purchasing and consumption logic. There was no significant increase in stocking before the holiday. Enterprises such as foam shoe materials and cables and wires have maintained weak sales, with few new orders added. At the end of the month, the number of operations for merchants to complete the task of selling orders has increased. Overall, the demand side has poor support for EVA.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, EVA prices have continued to be weak in recent days, and the buying and selling parties are in a wait-and-see atmosphere at the end of the month. The changes in the market for raw materials ethylene and vinyl acetate are limited, and the support for the EVA market is mediocre. The industry load continues to fall, and the overall demand side is not performing well. It is expected that EVA spot prices will remain stagnant during the May Day period.

The domestic dimethyl ether market stabilized first and then rose in April. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3600 yuan/ton on April 1st, and 3840 yuan/ton on April 28th. The monthly increase was 6.67%, a decrease of 6.11% compared to the same period last year.

As of April 28th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3900 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3800-3850 yuan/ton

In April, the dimethyl ether market in Henan region stabilized first and then rose. In early April, the price of dimethyl ether remained stable. The on-site supply remains stable, with downstream essential procurement as the main focus. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere, and on-site trading is light. Starting from late April, the price of dimethyl ether has been raised multiple times. The raw material methanol continues to rise, driven by high costs, and the mentality of the industry has slightly improved. Under cost pressure, dimethyl ether enterprises are pushing up prices, with a significant increase in Henan region. At the same time, downstream consumers have a clear resistance to high priced dimethyl ether, and demand remains weak.

The raw material methanol market fluctuated and fell. After reaching a low point on April 9th, it began to rise to the monthly high point on April 19th, and then began to fall, providing strong support for dimethyl ether.

Overall, the support of raw materials for dimethyl ether has weakened, and it is expected that there will be insufficient momentum for the continued rise of dimethyl ether in the future. On the contrary, under the constraint of demand, it is expected that the possibility of a slight decline in dimethyl ether prices will increase.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate in China was 2966 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 2910 yuan/ton on April 22nd. This week, the market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate fell by 1.91%.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of 64% diammonium phosphate in China was 3940 yuan/ton on April 15th, and 3930 yuan/ton on April 22nd. This week, the market price of diammonium phosphate decreased by 0.25%.

2、 Market analysis

This week, the ammonium phosphate market continued to operate weakly. The decrease in raw material prices has weakened cost support. Spring plowing has entered the final stage, with weak demand in the ammonium phosphate market and limited new transactions. The operating rate of enterprises has declined, and the market supply has decreased. As of April 22nd, the market price of 55% ammonium powder in Hubei region is around 2850-2950 yuan/ton, and the factory price of 55% ammonium powder in Henan region is around 2880-2950 yuan/ton, with actual negotiations being the main focus. The outbound price of 64% diammonium in Shandong region is around 3900-4070 yuan/ton, and the outbound price of 57% diammonium is around 3550-3600 yuan/ton. The actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of raw material phosphate ore. This week, the domestic phosphate ore market showed a slight decline. The overall trading atmosphere in the market is average, with limited trading of new orders on the exchange, and weak performance in the downstream market of phosphate ore. In some regions, the slightly tight supply of phosphate ore can still support mining companies in maintaining stable quotations, but in some areas, the overall pace of phosphate ore shipments is average due to the weak supply and demand. Therefore, some mining companies have lowered the prices of mid to high-end grade phosphate ore by about 20-30 yuan/ton.

The sulfur market for raw materials has seen a rise followed by a fall in sulfur prices in East China this week. The maintenance of refineries in Shandong region is concentrated, and the market supply of goods is still low. Enterprise inventory is relatively low, and most refineries have strong quotations. At the same time, downstream procurement is active, and market trading is good. Some enterprises have lowered their quotations due to high price increases in the early stage and downstream resistance. The overall sulfur market is still operating at a relatively high level.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the ammonium phosphate market has recently seen a downward trend. At present, downstream demand performance is poor, with weak costs and demand. It is expected that the short-term market price of ammonium phosphate will be weak, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

This week (4.15-19), the domestic polycrystalline silicon market showed weak performance, with prices continuing to decline. The transaction prices of major manufacturers were generally lowered by about 3000 yuan/ton this week, slightly slower than the previous week. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, polycrystalline silicon experienced a weekly decline of 2.44%. At present, the mainstream range of single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy has slipped to 42000 to 50000 yuan/ton.

On the supply side, large factories are currently operating with concentrated facilities, resulting in high supply pressure. On the one hand, mainstream large factories have stable output, new production capacity has been gradually released, and domestic supply has performed well. On the other hand, the high inventory of downstream silicon wafer manufacturers has led to a significant decrease in procurement efforts, which has also led to a gradual increase in silicon material inventory. Although large factories have generally raised prices before, they are currently under inventory pressure and have to lower prices in order to clear inventory. It is not ruled out that prices may continue to loosen in the future.

From the perspective of downstream silicon wafers, this week’s silicon wafer prices continued their previous decline, and since April, silicon wafer prices have continued to decline. The operating load of silicon wafer companies has decreased, and the current inventory pressure is relatively high. The main reason is the backlog of inventory from manufacturers in the early stage, coupled with insufficient production from downstream battery manufacturers, leading to an oversupply situation. Some second and third tier silicon wafer manufacturers continue to reduce operating rates to alleviate inventory pressure. However, the current effect is not significant, and the imbalance between supply and demand is difficult to solve in the short term. As of April 19th, the mainstream transaction price of M10 silicon wafers this week remained at last week’s level, about 1.65 yuan/piece; The mainstream transaction price of G12 continues to decline, with a decrease of 0.05 yuan, falling to 2.10 yuan/piece.

From the perspective of terminal demand, most battery cell quotations have stabilized, and prices have stopped the downward trend, but some models still have a slight decline. The main reason is the weakening of downstream demand, the significant price reduction of upstream silicon wafers, and the decrease in procurement efforts at the component end, which have double suppressed the overall environment of solar cells. This week, the components were affected by the sluggish terminal installation, resulting in a sluggish price trend and a pattern of oversupply in the photovoltaic industry chain.

Market forecast: Polycrystalline silicon analysts from Business Society believe that the upstream supply pressure of the photovoltaic industry chain is gradually increasing, and the contradiction of oversupply is prominent. However, the performance of installed capacity demand is moderate, and it is expected that the upstream and downstream of photovoltaics will continue to remain sluggish, and there may still be room for a decline in silicon material prices.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on April 19th was 5700 yuan/ton, which is stable compared to the average price of 5700 yuan/ton on April 15th.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin remained stable this week. This week, the price of raw material liquid wax has increased, while the price of raw material liquid chlorine has first increased and then decreased, and cost support is still acceptable. At present, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers are operating at low loads, and downstream procurement is in urgent need. Detailed discussions on actual orders are being conducted, and market transactions are limited. As of April 19th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the market price of 52 national standard chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is about 5600-5800 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax has continued to rise this week. The current market trend is improving, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine increased first and then decreased this week. Currently, downstream demand has weakened, and the sales situation is not good. Negotiations on actual orders are the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Shengyishe Chlorinated Paraffin, the recent decrease in raw material liquid chlorine prices has weakened cost support. The downstream demand for chlorinated paraffin is insufficient, and the market is mainly cautious. It is expected that the short-term market price of chlorinated paraffin will be adjusted and operated on a wait-and-see basis.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the sulfur price trend in East China continued to rise in April. On April 17th, the sulfur price was 1240.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 15.53% compared to the sulfur price of 1073.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

Since April, the sulfur market has continued to rise strongly. Before the Qingming Festival, downstream companies were actively stocking up before the festival, with active on-site trading, smooth enterprise shipments, and an upward trend in sulfur prices; After the holiday, refineries in Shandong have concentrated maintenance, reduced capacity utilization, low inventory levels, and tight market supply. Refinery prices have risen significantly, while downstream procurement is more active, making it difficult to find low prices on the market. In the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the focus of market transactions continues to shift upwards. As of the 17th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in refineries in Shandong Province was around 1180-1330 yuan/ton; The mainstream price of liquid sulfur is between 1180-1320 yuan/ton.

Downstream market trends in the industrial chain

The downstream sulfuric acid market fluctuated narrowly, with the average domestic sulfuric acid price on April 17th at 331.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.76% compared to the beginning of the month price of 328.75 yuan/ton. The domestic sulfuric acid market is mainly stable, with acid companies adopting a wait-and-see attitude and maintaining a delivery rhythm. Downstream demand and procurement enthusiasm are not high, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. Acid companies ship according to demand, and some adjust sulfuric acid prices slightly based on inventory conditions.

The downstream ammonium phosphate market is operating weakly, with an average market price of 55% powdered ammonium phosphate at 2966.67 yuan/ton on April 17th, a decrease of 4.20% compared to the beginning of the month price of 3096.67 yuan/ton. The trading volume in the ammonium phosphate market is sluggish, downstream purchases are light, demand support is insufficient, manufacturers have limited new orders, pending orders are reduced, enterprise sales are under pressure, market sentiment is pessimistic, and the price of ammonium phosphate continues to decline.

Technical analysis

Sulfur may continue to be strong and upward in the short term. Since January 28, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. On April 14, 2024, it was estimated that the probability of a change in operating trend (i.e. a 7-day moving average crossing the 30 day moving average) occurring within the next 7 days is 23.58%.

At present, sulfur is at a high level in one year, a low level in two years, and a low level in three years. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the average value of sulfur in the past year is 956.46 yuan/ton, the median value is 976.67 yuan/ton, the minimum value is 713.33 yuan/ton, and the maximum value is 1240.00 yuan/ton. The bottom price difference (compared to the lowest price difference in the past year) is 526.67 yuan/ton, and the top price difference (compared to the highest price difference in the past year) is 0.

Future Market Forecast

According to sulfur analysts from Business Society, the sulfur market currently has a lot of equipment maintenance, tight supply of goods, stable downstream demand, smooth enterprise shipments, and strong supplier benefits. It is expected that sulfur prices will continue to be strong in the short term, but in the long run, it will be difficult to find low prices downstream or there may be resistance to high priced sulfur. The sulfur market will remain stagnant and consolidated in the future, and specific attention will be paid to downstream follow-up.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has continued to rise in recent days (4.1-4.16). On April 16th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7930 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.62% from 7580 yuan/ton on the first day.

The high volatility of international crude oil prices provides some support for the cost of mixing xylene

Recently (4.1-4.16), under the resonance of multiple factors, the international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of April 16th, WTI05 contract settlement is $85.36 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $90.02 per barrel. The high volatility of Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $979 to $980 per ton as of April 16th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly decreases, supply pressure slightly alleviates

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure remains at a high level. It is understood that as of April 11th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 79000 tons, which continued to decline compared to the inventory at the end of March.

The production of xylene has slightly decreased, and the necessary support for mixed xylene still exists

The prices for parking and maintenance of some domestic devices have been adjusted to a high level, and as of April 15th, the PX production has slightly decreased to around 780%. The PX price in the Asian outer market continues to rise, providing some support for the domestic market. As of April 15th, the closing price in the Asian region was 1030 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1055 US dollars/ton CFR China.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. Recently, the price of industrial naphthalene has risen, and the market for naphthalene based phthalic anhydride has risen, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride.

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The domestic mixed blending market has recovered slowly, and the demand for toluene mixed blending has weakened. As of mid April, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.0.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Jiangsu Xinhai Petrochemical’s aromatics were shut down for maintenance on April 7th. There are still plans for equipment maintenance in May and June in the later stage, and overall, the expected decline in toluene supply is expected to provide some support for the mixed xylene market.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the mixed xylene index chart of Business Society shows that the 7-day moving average has been above the 30 day moving average since the beginning of the year and is showing an upward trend. During this period, the price of toluene gradually increased; At present, the 7-day moving average is still operating above the 30 day moving average, and it is expected that mixed xylene prices will still have strong support in the short term.

From a fundamental perspective, in the short term, the international crude oil market will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; Downstream PX production has slightly decreased, but overall there is still support, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and mixed blending industries is weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will mainly fluctuate in the later stage.

Last week (April 8-14, 2024), downstream weakness and lack of positive news support in the market led to a downward trend in the viscose short fiber market. A new round of prices was introduced by major manufacturers, and prices from different manufacturers were lowered to varying degrees, causing the price center of the viscose short fiber market to shift downwards. The market for raw material and main material dissolved pulp remains stable, while the auxiliary material liquid alkali market continues to be weak. The sulfuric acid market is partially pushed forward, and the cost support for the adhesive short fiber market is limited; Downstream yarn factories still mainly consume early inventory and replenish small quantities as needed. The demand side has shown weak performance, and downstream demand has not shown a significant improvement. Real transactions on the market are limited, and there is a lack of positive news support in the market.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of viscose short fibers declined last week (April 8-14, 2024). As of March 14th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fibers is 13320 yuan/ton, a decrease of 180 yuan/ton from last week’s price, with a weekly decrease of 1.33%.

In terms of cost, the market price of raw material dissolved pulp remains stable, with imported broadleaf dissolved pulp priced at around 880 US dollars per ton and needle leaf dissolved pulp priced at around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is priced at around 7600 yuan/ton. The price center of the auxiliary material liquid alkali market has shifted downwards, while the price of sulfuric acid market has slightly increased. The cost performance is average, and the average production cost of viscose short fibers has decreased.

In terms of supply: Last week (April 8-14, 2024), the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber industry remained around 79.21%, with a slight decrease in production compared to last week. During the week, adhesive short fiber manufacturers had to shut down their equipment for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in on-site supply. There is currently no inventory pressure on the site.

In terms of demand: downstream people mainly execute orders in the cotton yarn market, and the price trend is downward. Downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and multi-dimensional rigid demand procurement is maintained. The demand side has constraints on the raw material market from bottom to top.

Downstream cotton yarn market

Last week (April 8-14, 2024), downstream cotton yarn operated weakly and steadily, with the market mainly executing orders. The overall price slightly declined, and some yarn factories saw partial price declines in their quotations. Overall shipments were average, inventory was basically maintained, and demand side performance was weak. Downstream demand has not improved significantly, and actual transactions on the market are limited. As of April 14th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) was 17525 yuan/ton, a weekly decrease of 0.43%.

Future Market Forecast:

The trend of the upstream raw material market is not good, and the cost support is weakened. Although the inventory of manufacturers is not high, the demand side performance is weak, with primary demand for goods and average trading activity on the market. Business Society analysts predict that the market for viscose short fibers will remain stable in the short term, and prices may slightly increase. The market for artificial cotton yarn will continue to operate weakly and steadily.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the nitrile rubber market has slightly declined. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 15th, the price of nitrile rubber was 15275 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.13% from 15450 yuan/ton on the 1st. The prices of raw materials such as butadiene and acrylonitrile have risen, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support it; Downstream production has declined, resulting in weak demand for nitrile rubber. General inventory of nitrile rubber enterprises; The pressure on the supply side of nitrile rubber has been relieved. As of April 15th, the mainstream market price for Lanhua 3305 in East China is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Russian nitrile 3665 is around 14300-14400 yuan/ton; The mainstream market price for Nandi Nitrile 1052 is around 17000-17200 yuan/ton.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the prices of raw materials butadiene and acrylonitrile have increased, and the cost of nitrile rubber continues to support. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, as of April 15th, the price of butadiene was 11700 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.52% from 11525 yuan/ton on the 1st; As of April 15th, the price of acrylonitrile was 10362 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.02% compared to the price of 9962 yuan/ton on April 1st.

Recently (4.1-4.15), the production of nitrile rubber plants in China has declined. There are still plans to shut down devices from April to July in the later stage.

Recently, the production of downstream nitrile rubber hoses in China has remained around 5.5%, while the production of insulation foam has slightly decreased to around 5.5%. Downstream inquiries about nitrile rubber are small, and market transactions are light. The overall demand for nitrile rubber is weak.

Future Market Forecast:

From a technical perspective, the Business Society nitrile rubber index chart shows that from the beginning of the year to early April, the 7-day moving average of the nitrile rubber index continued to rise above the 30 day moving average, and at this time, the overall spot market prices showed an upward trend; Since mid April, the 7-day moving average has gradually fallen below the 30 day moving average, and the spot price of nitrile rubber has slightly decreased; From a technical perspective, nitrile rubber is currently breaking the 30 day support line, and there is a high probability of a downward trend in the later period.

From a fundamental perspective, Business Society nitrile analysts believe that currently, the high cost of butadiene and acrylonitrile raw materials for nitrile rubber is supported by high prices; Downstream production is declining, inquiries are cautious, and the impact on nitrile rubber is bearish; The downward pressure on the supply of nitrile rubber has eased, and it is expected that the nitrile rubber market will fluctuate and consolidate in the later period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8257 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 8292 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.43% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of LDPE (2426H) was 9287 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 9312 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.27% during the period.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic price of HDPE (5000S) was 8475 yuan/ton on April 7th, and the average price on April 12th was 8475 yuan/ton. During this period, the quotation remained stable.

The price of polyethylene has slightly increased this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the bullish rise in crude oil, the cost side supported a slight increase in polyethylene. On the supply side, there are many domestic polyethylene plant shutdowns for maintenance, resulting in reduced pressure on the supply side. Petrochemical companies have slightly increased their prices, while traders have followed suit with a slight increase. In terms of demand, the overall downstream demand is improving, and factories will replenish inventory in an appropriate amount after the holiday, while sales are still acceptable. But there is a certain resistance to the continuously rising high priced supply, and downstream factories have weakened their purchasing intentions.

On April 12th, the polyethylene l2409 contract on the Dalian Commodity Exchange was opened at 8400 yuan and closed at 8369 yuan, a decrease of 17 yuan. The highest price was 8408 yuan and the lowest was 8341 yuan, a decrease of 0.20%. This week, polyethylene futures showed a strong trend at the beginning of the week, which to some extent benefited the polyethylene spot market. Afterwards, the futures market weakened, weakening support for spot prices.

The maintenance of polyethylene equipment has increased, and the supply side is expected to decrease; The demand for plastic film began to weaken in late April, and the demand for greenhouse film is in the off-season; It is expected that polyethylene prices will mainly operate in a narrow range with limited upward space.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Business Society, as of April 11th, the price of high-quality power type lithium iron phosphate is 43620 yuan/ton, and the price of energy storage type lithium iron phosphate is 42316 yuan/ton. Since April, the lithium iron phosphate market has continued to recover, with upstream iron phosphate prices fluctuating mainly. This week, the price increased by 0.81%, with an increase of around 100 yuan/ton, providing strong support for lithium iron phosphate on the cost side.

2、 Market analysis

Recently, the price of lithium iron phosphate has been continuously rising. Since April, the market price of lithium iron phosphate has remained high and the trend has remained strong. The cost side price of lithium iron phosphate has strong support, and there is still support for lithium carbonate. As of April 11th, the price of lithium iron phosphate has continued to rise. Currently, the upstream dual raw material prices continue to rise, and the cost side support of lithium iron phosphate is strong. In addition, downstream demand continues to decrease. The purchasing atmosphere is good, and the negotiation focus remains high. There is no pressure on inventory. Currently, downstream enterprises mainly purchase in demand, and the factory operating rate is relatively high. Small and medium-sized enterprises mainly focus on production and sales. Today, the upstream price of lithium carbonate is mainly stable and strong, and lithium salt enterprises maintain a positive selling attitude. Due to recent market demand, Prices continue to rise, and companies have a clear willingness to hoard goods. Recently, the number of orders has significantly increased.

In terms of cost: March is the traditional spring plowing season, and due to the increase in demand for phosphate fertilizer, upstream phosphate prices have remained stable and strong. Phosphoric acid, as the main phosphorus element in iron phosphate and lithium iron phosphate, directly affects downstream prices at the cost end. The upstream iron ore prices have shown an upward trend, with an increase of up to 10% since early April. Under the continuous stimulation of cost pressure, the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate have passively risen. It is expected that strong support from the cost end will continue in the short term, driving up the prices of lithium iron phosphate and iron phosphate.

In terms of demand: Currently, the production and sales of energy storage cells have rebounded recently, and the pressure of high inventory levels has been significantly alleviated in March. Recently, the leading lithium battery company, CATL, announced at the energy storage new product launch event that the Tianheng standard 20 foot containerized energy storage system will no longer cause a drop in the lifespan of the product’s lithium battery, achieving 15000 laboratory cycles. The large capacity of energy storage cells has sparked a large-scale boom, which will drive the continuous upgrading of the lithium battery industry to cope with more challenges.

In terms of production: According to statistics, the production of lithium iron phosphate in March was 164000 tons, an increase of 40000 tons or 32.3% compared to February. The production of iron phosphate was 121100 tons, a significant increase of 103% compared to the previous month and a significant increase of 75% compared to the same period last year. After the Qingming Festival, orders for lithium iron phosphate have significantly recovered, leading enterprises have rebounded in prices and considerable profits. Enterprises have continuously increased their production to meet the demand for downstream power vehicles. The full month production capacity in March has approached the high level of the same period last year. Currently, downstream demand is not decreasing, and upstream cost support is favorable. It is expected that production capacity will continue to increase in April.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Market and technical prediction: In the short term, the market price of lithium iron phosphate is expected to continue to rise

In the future market of lithium iron phosphate, there is a high possibility of an upward trend. Currently, spot prices continue to rise, and with the dual assistance of cost and demand, the upward trend of lithium iron phosphate is full of momentum. The commodity analysis system prediction model of Shengyishe shows that since March 1, 2024, the 7-day moving average has crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. At that time, the price of lithium iron phosphate in Shengyishe was in a continuous upward trend, and the daily moving average on April 6, 2024 has once again crossed the 30 day moving average and started an upward trend. Currently, it can be seen that the two moving averages continue to rise in the same direction. According to calculations on April 11, 2024, the possibility of market changes in the next 7 days is not significant. Therefore, it is expected that the price of lithium iron phosphate will continue to rise in the short.

In summary, as of April, the peak season of production and sales continues, and battery cell companies are accelerating their delivery speed, increasing their orders. New energy vehicle models continue to be launched, and iron lithium companies have full confidence in the future market. The demand for the power market is quite obvious, and the spring market is also gradually recovering. It is expected that the demand for lithium iron phosphate market will further increase.

The domestic acrylic acid market has shown a continuous upward trend in the past half of the month. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of April 8th, the average quoted price of acrylic acid in East China was 6700.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 6.99% compared to March 24th (acrylic acid reference price of 6262.50).

Cause analysis:

Supply side:

East China region: Main factory equipment maintenance, overall market supply and demand pattern tightening, supporting prices to rise.

Shandong region: At the end of March, some facilities resumed operation, but enterprises mainly executed pre orders in the early stage, with tight spot prices and no pressure on the supply side to raise prices.

Overall, the price increase of acrylic acid in this stage is mainly supported by favorable factors such as supply side maintenance and tight spot prices.

On the demand side:

Recently, the downstream inquiry atmosphere has been active, but overall, it continues to be mainly based on demand procurement, with a high intention to replenish at low prices. Follow up on high priced raw materials is still cautious. Among them, the main downstream butyl acrylate reduces the load of the enterprise in a narrow range, and the terminal tape master roll and acrylic lotion factory just need to purchase. In general, the demand at this stage is generally supported by the acrylic market.

Cost side:

In March, the supply and demand game in the raw material propylene market resulted in a slight decrease in the price center. At the end of March, the price of propylene rebounded after falling to a low point, providing stronger support for the acrylic acid market. Since April, the price of raw material propylene has fluctuated weakly with a narrow range, and the profit level of the acrylic acid market has improved. Overall, the current cost is still supported by the acrylic acid market.

Future Market Forecast:

In the past half month, the acrylic acid market has shown a strong upward trend due to various factors such as reduced production and cost. In the later stage, there are expectations of individual devices restarting in the South China region, and the regional market supply may increase. However, the current supply side is operating without pressure, and the tight supply pattern on site is profound. Short term supply side support still exists. The utilization rate of downstream butyl acrylate production capacity may slightly increase, and terminal consumption is expected to support stable demand. In summary, it is expected that the acrylic acid market will remain strong in the short term, and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong has been fluctuating and consolidating recently. At the beginning of the week, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4762.50 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average production price of polyformaldehyde in Shandong was 4775.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.26% and a year-on-year decrease of 9.26%.

Upstream methanol situation: The domestic methanol market is mainly volatile. Downstream olefin factories have reduced their purchases of methanol from mainland China, and the purchasing sentiment in the mainland market is also average, with a focus on maintaining essential procurement. Coal prices currently have no support for the market, and both mainland and port sources are showing an increasing trend. However, traditional downstream and MTO consumption levels are expected to weaken, and the supply-demand gap in the industry is further expanding. It is expected that the domestic methanol market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

In recent times, the methanol market has been fluctuating, and cost support is still acceptable. Enterprises are producing normally, while downstream suppliers are maintaining essential procurement. Business Society’s polyformaldehyde analysts predict that prices may slightly increase as the main players.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the acrylonitrile market saw a slight increase in March. As of March 29th, the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in the market was 9937 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 4.47% from 9512 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, saw a slight decline in production, with weak support from demand for acrylonitrile; Acrylonitrile production has steadily increased slightly, with a slight increase in the supply of acrylonitrile; The acrylonitrile market has slightly increased, with the self pickup price of acrylonitrile in East China ranging from 9600 to 10000 yuan/ton as of the 29th.

In March, the load of the acrylonitrile unit slightly increased, with the start of operation increasing from 6.2% at the beginning of the month to around 6.5%. The 452000 ton/year acrylonitrile unit of Jilin Petrochemical was reduced to 70% load operation by the end of February; Tianchen Qixiang’s 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile plant will restart at the end of February; Starting from the 18th, the 130000 tons/year acrylonitrile produced by Jihua (Jieyang) will be shut down for maintenance.

In March, the price of raw material propylene slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continued to support. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of March 29th, the domestic propylene price was 6790 yuan/ton, a slight decrease of 1.17% from 6870 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; As of March 29th, the domestic liquid ammonia price was 3323 yuan/ton, an increase of 11.65% from 2976 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month

Downstream demand for acrylonitrile is weakly supported. In March, the equipment load in the ABS industry slightly decreased, with the start of production dropping from 6.8% at the beginning of the month to around 6.3% at the end of the month; The nitrile rubber plant started construction steadily in March, and there is a maintenance plan for the enterprise plant in the later stage. The overall demand for acrylonitrile in March is stable, and may slightly decrease in the later stage; The overall production of acrylamide in March remained at a low level of around 4.6%; Overall, downstream demand support for acrylonitrile has slightly weakened.

Market forecast: Acrylonitrile analysts from Business Society believe that there is still pressure on the supply side of acrylonitrile at present; The price of raw material propylene has slightly decreased, while the price of liquid ammonia has significantly increased, and the cost of acrylonitrile continues to support; In the face of weak demand support for acrylonitrile, it is expected that the acrylonitrile market will experience narrow fluctuations in April.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the mixed xylene market continued to rise slightly in March. On March 31st, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7570 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.35% from 7420 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month.

High international crude oil and foreign market prices provide support for mixed xylene production

In March, supply risks increased due to the geopolitical situation, and international crude oil prices rose, providing stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 28th, WTI05 contract settlement is $83.17 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $87.00 per barrel. The slight increase in the price of mixed xylene in Asia has supported the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $948 to $949 per ton as of March 29th.

Relative high level mixed xylene production requires support for xylene production

In March, international crude oil and PX prices remained high, providing support for the price of mixed xylene. As of March 29th, the closing prices in the Asian region were 1026-1028 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1051-1053 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have fluctuated narrowly.

The production of phthalic anhydride is basically stable, and the demand support for mixed xylene is weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is very abundant, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is poor. In addition, the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has slightly declined, which has affected the price of ortho phthalic anhydride slightly.

Slow recovery of domestic mixed production and weak support for mixed xylene demand

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of the end of March, the operating capacity of refineries nationwide has slightly decreased to around 7.2.

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has decreased, and the supply pressure has slightly eased

The continued increase in mixed xylene port inventory has put pressure on the supply side of mixed xylene. It is understood that as of March 28th, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China amounted to 88000 tons, a decrease of about 12000 tons from late February.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

The xylene units of Hubei Jin’ao and Jinke Refinery were shut down for maintenance in March; Jiangsu Xinhai, Zhenghe Petrochemical and other facilities plan to shut down for maintenance in April, and there are still plans for maintenance in May and June. Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mixed xylene market has slightly increased recently (3.18-3.27). On March 27th, the benchmark price of mixed xylene was 7520 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.21% from 7430 yuan/ton on March 18th.

The high volatility of international crude oil prices provides some support for the cost of mixing xylene

Recently (3.18-3.27), under the resonance of multiple factors, the international crude oil has fluctuated at a high level, which still provides some support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of March 26th, WTI05 contract settlement is $81.62 per barrel; Brent 06 contract settlement is $85.63 per barrel. The high volatility of Asian mixed xylene prices provides support for the domestic market, with prices of heterogeneous grade xylene in Asia ranging from $952 to $953 per ton as of March 26th.

Mixed xylene port inventory slightly decreases, supply pressure slightly alleviates

The inventory of mixed xylene at ports has slightly decreased, but the supply pressure remains at a high level. It is understood that as of March 22, the total inventory of xylene in East and South China was 96500 tons, which continued to decline slightly from 101000 tons on March 15.

High demand for xylene production supports mixed xylene production

There is sufficient domestic spot supply of xylene, and international crude oil prices rose and then fell within the week. PX external prices also rose and fell, with an overall downward trend. As of the 22nd, the closing prices in the Asian region were 998-1000 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 1023-1025 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high, with an overall operating rate of nearly 80% for xylene plants in the Asian region. The supply-demand contradiction of PX supply in the Asian region has become apparent, and the domestic xylene market prices have declined.

The production of phthalic anhydride continues around 60%, and the demand for mixed xylene is stable, moderate, and weak

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. However, the recent maintenance of naphthalene phthalic anhydride plants has not been as expected, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride is mainly stable. As a result, the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable

The domestic mixed blending market is recovering slowly, and the demand for mixed xylene continues to be weakly supported

The recovery of the domestic mixed blending market is slow, and the demand for mixed xylene is weak. As of mid March, the operating rate of refineries nationwide is around 7.3.

Expected decrease in supply of mixed xylene for planned maintenance of multiple devices

Overall, the expected decline in the supply of mixed xylene in the later period provides some support for the mixed xylene market.

Market forecast: In the short term, international crude oil will consolidate at a high level, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; The downstream polyester industry has strong support for the high starting point, but the support for the phthalic anhydride and blending industries is relatively weak; Multiple domestic devices are scheduled for maintenance in the later stage, and the supply of mixed xylene is expected to decline. Overall, it is expected that mixed xylene will continue to rise in the later stage.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the weak trend of polyaluminum chloride market this week is mainly consolidation. The solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride market in China was mainly reported at around 1815 yuan/ton on the 18th, and around 1806.25 yuan/ton on the 25th, with a price drop of 0.48%. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has basically returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid remains stable. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw Material Hydrochloric Acid: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price has remained stable this week, with manufacturers operating normally and limited inventory. The average market price is 92.5 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with upward expectations and good cost support. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market is consolidating at a high level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has fallen this week. This week, domestic temperatures have rebounded, the heating season is coming to an end, market demand is weakening, and bearish sentiment on the market has increased. At present, there is still support on the cost side, but due to the sustained weakness in terminal demand and high market supply, the situation of oversupply is difficult to improve in the short term. The liquid factory is under pressure to ship, resulting in a concentrated decrease in liquid prices.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will remain stable, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will decline, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will decline. On the supply side, China’s polyaluminum chloride manufacturers have basically resumed normal production; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the auction price of crude benzene increased during the period from March 15 to March 22, 2024, with a price increase of 7038.75 yuan/ton last week and 7258.75 yuan/ton this week, up 3.13%.

In terms of crude oil: International crude oil futures fell on March 21st. The settlement price of the main WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $81.07 per barrel, a decrease of $0.20 or 0.3%. The settlement price of the Brent crude oil futures main contract was $85.24 per barrel, a decrease of $0.14 or 0.2%.

On March 15, 2024, Sinopec’s listed price for pure benzene was increased by 150 yuan/ton, with a current implementation of 8700 yuan/ton.

Other companies: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 8153 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 8450 yuan/ton, and Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 8700 yuan/ton..

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene rose first and then fell this week. On March 18th, the price of pure benzene was 8508 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 22nd), the price of pure benzene was 8542 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.09% from last week and an increase of 18.22% from the same period last year.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the pure benzene market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

In terms of the industrial chain, downstream demand has performed well this week, and the expected improvement in demand for raw material pure benzene due to the restart of styrene plants has driven the pure benzene market in East China to heat up. However, in the middle of the week, the styrene market fell, dragging down the mentality of the industrial chain, and the pure benzene market followed a pullback. Over the weekend, there were reports of device maintenance in the downstream, which once again dragged down market sentiment. However, due to the tight supply of crude benzene, auction prices continued to rise this week. As a result, the ex factory prices in the main production areas of the hydrogenated benzene market only slightly decreased this week, with the current mainstream price ranging from 8300 to 8550 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, the sixth round of reduction in the coke market has quickly landed, with a cumulative decrease of 600-660 yuan/ton. At present, coke enterprises are generally losing money, and actively limiting production continues to increase. The operating rate has dropped to around 65%, and crude benzene production has significantly declined. The overall supply is tight, and affected by the weak trend of the coal coke steel industry chain, the operating rate of coke enterprises is likely to remain low in the near future, and the supply of crude benzene will still be tight in the future. In terms of demand, downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises have been operating at a relatively stable rate recently, maintaining on-demand replenishment of crude benzene. However, the pure benzene industry chain has been weak this week, dragging down market sentiment. The ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene enterprises has been lowered by 150 yuan/ton within the week, resulting in high raw material prices and weak downstream demand. The hydrogenated benzene industry has a strong mentality of price pressure. In the absence of a significant favorable environment for supply and demand in the future, it is expected that there will still be a slight decline in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11666 yuan/ton, and the price of activated carbon over the weekend was 11600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.57%.

Domestic activated carbon manufacturers have weak quotations, and market transactions are mainly based on orders. The ex factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is between 9500-12000 yuan/ton. Industry insiders hold a wait-and-see attitude and focus on post holiday market transactions.

Coconut shell charcoal has a certain amount of sales in areas such as gold extraction, water purification, and filter cartridges, especially gold charcoal, which receives more inquiries from the African market; The supply of fruit shell charcoal with medium to low indicators is smoother. There is a recent rebound in imported carbonized materials, and the industry can pay more attention to it.

Prediction: The quotes from activated carbon manufacturers are weak, and the market lacks positive support. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate within a narrow range in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the 1 # electrolytic manganese market was operating weakly this week (March 11th to March 18th), with prices in the East China region dropping by 1.08% to 13700 yuan/ton on March 18th.

In terms of manganese ore, the overall performance of manganese ore this week was weak, with prices showing a downward trend. Downstream purchasing willingness was average, but prices remained low, resulting in inconsistent performance at the port. This week, it was mainly affected by downstream production cuts, spot and market prices, with different types of ore experiencing a decline of 0.2-0.3 yuan/ton. Port profiteers still have a high willingness to ship. As of March 15th, Tianjin Port’s semi carbonated carbon is priced between 33.5-34 yuan/ton, Gabon’s is priced between 35-35.5 yuan/ton, and Australia’s block is priced below 36 yuan/ton. Although there is a strong willingness to ship, the overall transaction volume is relatively low. The mainstream price of southern manganese ore remains stable, and downstream purchases are mainly based on demand. Semi carbonated carbon is priced between 33.5-34 yuan/ton, Australia’s block is priced between 36-36.5 yuan/ton, and Gabon’s block is priced between 35-35.5 yuan/ton.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively weak.

This week, the electrolytic manganese market continued its previous trend and continued to operate weakly. The mainstream market prices this week were concentrated at 12100-12200 yuan/ton, a further decrease of 100 yuan/ton compared to last week. After the holiday, the demand for electrolytic manganese in the market has been weak, and the spot market has maintained a weak operating trend. After January, with the resumption of work by enterprises, the operating rate has basically returned to pre holiday levels, and market supply has recovered. In terms of demand, several rounds of auctions conducted within the month have shown overall weak performance, which has also dragged down the mentality of the spot market. The overall downward pressure on prices remains strong. Under the mentality of supply-demand competition, it is expected that the electrolytic manganese market will remain weak in the short term due to the lack of demand support, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel recruitment guidance.

Related data:

This week, the silicon manganese market has been operating weakly, and the sentiment of rising prices for manganese ore on the cost side has weakened. Recently, spot retail trading has been poor, and some manufacturers have successively delivered orders to steel mills. However, due to steel mills reducing production, spot demand is average, and most manufacturers have silicon manganese inventory. Some manufacturers in Inner Mongolia, the main production area, have relatively serious inventory accumulation compared to the previous period, resulting in a low price shipping sentiment. Some manufacturers in Ningxia continue to reduce and stop production, and the total production is relatively low. In the southern region, due to high costs, the expectation of manufacturers resuming production is poor. On the steel plant side, alloy procurement has been carried out one after another, and steel bidding prices have decreased month on month. Additionally, due to steel plant maintenance, silicon and manganese production has decreased month on month. On the futures side, the main manganese silicon contract this week was driven by black sentiment, and the price continued to decline. The market pattern remained unchanged, and the market broke new lows this week, reaching a low of 6116. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price for silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 5800-5950 yuan/ton on March 15th.

Steel recruitment situation:

Pohang, South Korea, is bidding for electrolytic manganese from March to April 2024. The quantity is currently unknown, and the deadline for quotation is March 12, 2024. The delivery date is March 31, 2024, and April 26, 2024.

The bidding price for metal manganese ingots at Panzhihua West Steel in March April 2024 is 12265 yuan/ton (excluding tax acceptance pricing), a decrease of 258 yuan/ton, with a quantity of 600 tons and a delivery date before April 30, 2024.

Industry data:

On March 17th, the base metal index was 1203 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 25.56% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 87.38% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On March 17th, the non-ferrous index was 1119 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.24% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 84.35% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 11th week of 2024 (3.11-3.15), there were a total of 9 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were copper (3.86%), nickel (2.47%), and cobalt (2.25%). There are a total of 11 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are metal praseodymium (-2.03%), neodymium oxide (-1.42%), and metal silicon (-1.41%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.2%.

Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the BOPP market price continued to slowly decline this week. As of March 18th, domestic producers and traders μ The mainstream quoted price of BOPP film for m is around 9566 yuan/ton, a decrease of about 0.3% from last week’s average price and about 0.6% from the beginning of the month’s average price.

quotations analysis

In terms of raw materials: From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of raw material PP has fluctuated and increased this month. The mainstream quoted price of domestic manufacturers and traders T30S (wire drawing) is around 7720 yuan/ton, an increase of about 0.1% compared to last week. The cost support of raw material PP for BOPP prices is slightly stronger, but there are more bearish factors.

On the supply side, there are still some undelivered orders, with abundant inventory, increased operating rates of film companies, and sufficient supply on the supply side

In terms of demand: Downstream enterprises have insufficient demand, resulting in reduced order volume and weak market demand for price support

Future Market Forecast

It is expected that BOPP prices will slowly decline.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 7587.5 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 7587.5 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, a year-on-year decrease of 12.91%.

Supply side: The device operates stably and the supply of goods is normal

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, with a recent operating rate of around 60%. The spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the sales situation of phthalic anhydride manufacturers is average. However, the recent increase in maintenance of naphthalene phthalic anhydride plants has led to an increase in the price trend of naphthalene phthalic anhydride, which has temporarily stabilized the price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride.

Cost side: Stable price of ortho benzene with acceptable cost support

Recently, the price trend of ortho benzene in China has remained stable. As of the weekend, the price of ortho benzene was 8100 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site facilities is stable. In the short term, the trend of crude oil prices has declined, and the price of mixed xylene has remained stable. The temporary stability of ortho benzene prices provides certain cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market is temporarily stable.

Demand side: DOP market’s on-demand procurement market is declining

The price trend of downstream DOP market has declined this week, with a price of 10910 yuan/ton as of the weekend, a decrease of 4.72% from the price of 11450 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises are generally operating, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises are still operating at a loss, and downstream demand is average. The mainstream price of DOP is 11600-11700 yuan/ton. The downstream DOP price trend has declined, and the purchase of phthalic anhydride is not good. The domestic market price of phthalic anhydride is strong.

Looking at the future market, the recent trend of crude oil prices has increased, while the price of ortho xylene has remained stable. The downstream DOP market has declined, but the supply of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has decreased recently, which has a certain supporting effect on ortho phthalic anhydride. It is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will mainly fluctuate in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the focus of the domestic yellow phosphorus market has shifted downward this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus last Thursday was 23793.33 yuan/ton, and this Thursday’s average price was 22760 yuan/ton, with a price reduction of 4.34%.

2、 Market analysis

The focus of the yellow phosphorus market continued to decline this week. The trading situation of yellow phosphorus on the market is average. The manufacturer mainly issues preliminary orders, but the transaction situation of new orders is average. Downstream procurement enthusiasm is poor, demand is average, and there are many cases of underpricing procurement. It is mainly wait-and-see, and the procurement is very cautious. Overall, the market situation for yellow phosphorus is relatively light. As of now, the market price for yellow phosphorus is around 22500-23300 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction is negotiable.

In terms of phosphate ore, according to data monitoring from Business Society, the phosphate ore market has temporarily stabilized and consolidated this week. As of March 14, 2023, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphate ore in China is around 1062 yuan/ton, which is the same as March 7. The phosphorus ore data analyst from Business Society believes that the overall domestic phosphorus ore market is stable and running smoothly, with a mild trading atmosphere in the phosphate ore field. Currently, the downstream market demand for phosphate ore is slowly recovering.

In terms of coke, according to the analysis of the commodity market by Business Society, as of now, the coke market in Shandong ports is operating weakly, with a quasi first level outbound price of around 2030-2080 yuan/ton and a first level outbound price of 2130-2180 yuan/ton. The spot market in ports is operating weakly, and the trading atmosphere is weak. The intention of traders to gather at the port is low, and the inventory of the two ports has slightly decreased. On March 14th, Xiaoyi arrived at Rizhao Port at 170 yuan/ton, while Jiexiu arrived at Rizhao Port at 165 yuan/ton.

In terms of phosphoric acid, according to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of phosphoric acid has declined. The average price of domestic hot process phosphoric acid market was 6650 yuan/ton last Thursday, and 6600 yuan/ton this Thursday, with a price drop of 0.75%. The phosphoric acid analyst from Business Society believes that the demand in the thermal phosphoric acid market is average this week, with poor raw material yellow phosphorus market and insufficient cost support. The industry is mainly cautious and wait-and-see.

3、 Future Market Forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst from the Chemical Branch of Business Society believes that the upstream phosphate ore market is currently stable and consolidating, and the coke market is operating weakly, with average cost support. The downstream phosphoric acid market prices have fallen. Overall, the trading volume in the yellow phosphorus market is relatively light, and downstream markets are mostly wait-and-see. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will experience weak consolidation and operation in the short term, and actual transactions will be discussed on a single basis.

Recently, the market for butyl acrylate has continued to show a slight downward trend. The demand growth was less than expected. Due to the continued downturn in the terminal real estate market, the downstream coating of butyl acrylate was weak, and the consumption of acrylic lotion could not be said to be considerable. As of March 11, the benchmark price of butyl acrylate in the business community was 9490.00 yuan/ton, down -0.42% compared with last Monday (9530.00 yuan/ton).

In terms of cost

In terms of propylene, there was a slight increase in the Shandong market, with mainstream transactions at 7054 yuan/ton as of March 11th. With the rise in propylene prices, downstream product profits are weak, and the market trading atmosphere is slightly flat. Low end offers and shipments are smooth.

In terms of n-butanol, there is a lack of strong positive expectations in the Shandong market, resulting in a inertia decline in market prices and a small supply gap that is not enough to create bullish expectations in the market; On the other hand, although butanol has good profits, downstream product profits are weak. As of March 10th, the mainstream market transaction was at 7933 yuan/ton.

The prices of raw materials fluctuate, and a comprehensive comparison of cost calculations shows that the production enterprises of butyl acrylate are under significant pressure in terms of cost.

In terms of supply and demand

The operating level of domestic butyl acrylate units remains at 60%, and the overall spot supply inventory of production enterprises is gradually increasing. Among them, the total production capacity of satellite chemical acrylic acid and butyl acrylate reaches 840000 tons/year and 780000 tons/year, respectively. The downstream adhesive and tape master roll industries of butyl acrylate are maintaining a strong demand for replenishment, and in the short term, the trend of raw material prices is mainly based on market trends. Most production enterprises of acrylic acid lotion have started construction as planned, and the construction on site is around 40%. The downstream enterprises are slow to resume construction, resulting in a general atmosphere on the site. Due to the lack of significant downstream demand for butyl acrylate, the demand side has a slow driving speed towards the consumption of butyl acrylate supply.

Overall

With the stabilization of raw material propylene prices and the rebound of n-butanol, the downward trend of butyl acrylate prices has slowed down under short-term support from the raw material side. The integration of the butyl acrylate industry has become the main development trend, and non integrated butyl acrylate production enterprises are under significant purchasing pressure in the short term. According to the data analyst from Business Society, the demand for downstream markets in the butyl acrylate market still needs to be monitored this week. However, the overall situation of strong supply and weak demand continues, and it is expected that the butyl acrylate market will continue to operate weakly in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic tetrachloroethylene market saw a strong rise this week (3.4-3.8). The average market price at the beginning of the week is 4800 yuan/ton, and the average weekend price is 5012 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 4.43%.

2、 Analysis and Review

On Thursday of this week, the market for vinyl chloride showed a significant increase, with tight supply. After the holiday, the shipment of refrigerants in the market rebounded significantly, and the price of refrigerant R125 increased. The market supply was tight, and there was strong support for demand in the face of tetrachloroethylene.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s tetrachloroethylene analyst believes that the demand for tetrachloroethylene will continue to support in the short term, and it is expected that the tetrachloroethylene market will continue to maintain a high and strong trend in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased this week. On March 4th, the price of pure benzene was 8275 yuan/ton, and on Friday (March 8th), the price of pure benzene was 8261 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.61% from last week and an increase of 13.67% from the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and Review

This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 8350 yuan/ton (prices in Shandong and Hebei regions have dropped by 200 yuan/ton simultaneously)

Downstream aspect

3、 Future Market Forecast

Overnight crude oil and styrene prices have risen, and sellers are optimistic about the future market. The willingness to ship has decreased, and it is expected that prices will fluctuate and rise today.

Crude oil: The market is weighing the impact of the Middle East situation and demand prospects, and the bearish game continues, with narrow fluctuations in international oil prices. NYMEX crude oil futures 04 contract 78.93 fell 0.20 US dollars per barrel, or 0.25%; The ICE oil futures 05 contract remained unchanged at $82.96 per barrel. The main contract of China INE crude oil futures, 2404, rose 5.4 to 614.4 yuan/barrel, and fell 0.5 to 613.9 yuan/barrel in overnight trading.

Core logic: Yesterday, the price of pure benzene in the East China market was discussed and the transaction was positive. However, the industry is concerned about the subsequent downstream maintenance situation, and the space for price increase is limited.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic price of butyl rubber 1751 was 17675 yuan/ton on February 28th. This month, the price curve of butyl rubber remained stable, with an increase of 100 yuan/ton from January, or 0.57%.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side: Due to the increase in domestic MTBE prices in February, but the lack of downstream procurement enthusiasm after the upward push, the market situation slightly rebounded, resulting in slight fluctuations in isobutene prices in February. The price of isobutene fell by 100 yuan/ton this month. In terms of equipment, the 45000 ton unit of Yanshan Petrochemical has been shut down, while other units are operating normally. Overall, the cost is relatively weak in terms of spot support.

Demand side: At the beginning of the Chinese New Year, the overseas tire market is gradually entering a good situation, with a continuous flow of overseas orders from steel tire enterprises. The industry prosperity is accelerating the resumption rate of the steel tire industry. As of today, the load rate of the entire steel tire industry has increased by about 2 layers, and the load rate of the semi steel industry has increased by about 1.4 layers.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to analysts from Business Society, the supply side of butyl rubber is expected to increase slightly in the later stage, with weak support from the cost side and expected support from the demand side. It is expected that the recent butyl rubber market will be strong and consolidation will be the main trend.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price trend of light rare earths in February declined. On February 28th, the rare earth index was 375 points, a decrease of 23 points from the beginning of the month, a decrease of 62.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1007 points (2022-02-24), and an increase of 38.38% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

The prices of domestic neodymium oxide, metallic neodymium, praseodymium oxide, metallic praseodymium, praseodymium neodymium alloy, and praseodymium neodymium oxide have all declined. As of the end of the month, the price of neodymium oxide was 362500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 10.49% in February; The price of neodymium metal was 475000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 8.21% in February; The price of praseodymium oxide was 375000 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 7.98% in February; The price of praseodymium metal was 510000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 7.27% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 452500 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 9.50% in February; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide is 365000 yuan/ton, with a price decline of 8.75%.

In February, the rare earth market prices fell, with limited transactions in the domestic rare earth market, very few new orders, low purchasing willingness of enterprises, and very few downstream inquiries. The rare earth raw material market continued to operate under pressure, with only a small number of price pressing inquiries. The supply-demand contradiction was sharp, and the overall market transactions were sluggish. There are many downstream holiday companies around the Spring Festival, and coupled with the holiday period for waste recycling, the overall market support is insufficient. The pessimistic sentiment has intensified, and the rare earth market trend continues to decline.

According to statistics, in January 2024, the production and sales of new energy vehicles completed 787000 and 729000 respectively, a decrease of 32.9% and 38.8% month on month, and an increase of 85.3% and 78.8% year-on-year. The year-on-year decline in production and sales of new energy vehicles in January has had a certain negative impact on the rare earth market, and the domestic rare earth market has slightly declined.

After years of governance, the domestic rare earth industry has gradually formed a supply pattern dominated by large groups and relatively concentrated raw materials. With the continuous development of the foreign rare earth industry, China’s share of rare earth production has declined from 90% to 70%. Recently, two domestic departments have released the first batch of rare earth mining indicators for 2024, and the growth rate of the indicators has slowed down, which has a certain positive support effect on the domestic market.

Market forecast: Recently, magnetic material companies have had poor purchasing and ordering sentiment, and some companies have not yet resumed work and production. The situation regarding new orders is unclear, and it is expected that the rare earth market prices will mainly decline in the short term. In the long run, the trend of long-term growth in demand for industrial robots, new energy vehicles, wind turbines and other terminals remains unchanged. High performance neodymium iron boron permanent magnets are expected to continue to increase in terminal penetration rate, which is conducive to the long-term stable development of the rare earth industry.