According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the toluene market rose in February. On February 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 6880 yuan/ton, and on February 29th, the benchmark price was 7210 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.80%. Affected by the fluctuation and rise in international crude oil prices, the cost of toluene continues to support; After the holiday, the profit margin for downstream disproportionation has increased, supporting the demand for toluene; However, the continued increase in port inventories has brought resistance to the upward trend of toluene.

The rise in international crude oil and external market prices provides support for toluene

Affected by the situation in the Middle East, international crude oil prices rose during and after the holiday in February, leading to stronger support for the cost of mixed xylene. As of February 28th, the settlement of WTI04 contract is 78.54 yuan/barrel; The settlement price of Brent 05 contract is $82.15 per barrel. Affected by the rebound in crude oil prices, the price of toluene in Asia gradually rose in February. As of February 28, March, the CFR China LC90 day toluene price was between 902-904 US dollars/ton.

Relative high-level toluene demand support for xylene production

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, and the domestic PX operating rate remains at 8.4%. The external price of PX has slightly increased, and as of the 28th, the closing price in the Asian region is 1013-1015 yuan/ton FOB Korea and 1038-1040 US dollars/ton CFR China.

Domestic mixed blending demand is weak in supporting toluene

During the off-season of the domestic mixed blending market before and after the Spring Festival, downstream inquiries were light, and the demand for mixed xylene mixed blending weakened. In the later stage, with the increase in local refining operations, the demand for oil blending in the market is expected to recover. As of February 22, the nationwide refinery operation fluctuated narrowly around 7.1 to 7.3.

After the holiday, TDI has basically increased its support for toluene demand

After the holiday, downstream factories have resumed work one after another, and the replenishment sentiment has increased. In addition, the TDI market has a low supply of goods, and suppliers have a clear intention to increase prices. Shanghai’s large factories have raised prices, and holders have raised their offers. However, downstream demand is limited, and TDI may not have enough support for stable operation in the later stage of the rise.

The increase in supply has suppressed the upward trend of Jia Ben

Domestic toluene production has slightly increased and port inventory pressure has increased. As of February 22, the domestic production of toluene has slightly increased to around 740%; As of February 23, the inventory of toluene in East China was 104000 tons, and the inventory of toluene in South China was 18000 tons, a significant increase from the end of January.

Market forecast: According to toluene analysts from Business Society, international crude oil prices will continue to fluctuate in the short term, and there is still support for the cost of toluene; Downstream industries such as PX and TDI have some support for toluene, but toluene inventories continued to increase in February, and supply pressure remains; In summary, it is expected that the toluene market will experience a volatile consolidation in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market for polyaluminum chloride remained stable this week. The main market price for solid (industrial grade, with a content of ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride in China was around 1808.75 yuan/ton on the 29th. The production of water treatment enterprises in China’s main production areas has gradually returned to normal, with sufficient market inventory. Downstream procurement is based on demand, and the price of raw material hydrochloric acid remains stable. The market for polyaluminum chloride has also stabilized.

Raw material hydrochloric acid: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, and as of February 29th, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price was 85 yuan/ton. The upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market has fluctuated and fallen, and downstream purchasing willingness has weakened.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic liquefied natural gas market has risen this week. As market demand gradually recovers at the end of the month, liquid prices have started to rise, and low prices have begun to rise. The bidding price for raw gas has increased, leading to increased cost support.

Market forecast: In the near future, raw material prices will remain stable, fuel liquefied natural gas prices will rise, and the cost of polyaluminum chloride will rise. On the supply side, production of polyaluminum chloride by Chinese manufacturers has gradually resumed normal operations; On the demand side, there has been no significant improvement in purchasing willingness, and stability is the main focus. Analysis suggests that the recent market for polyaluminum chloride may be dominated by consolidation.

February coincides with the Spring Festival, but the market for viscose short fibers is relatively warm, with prices rising. Before the year, manufacturers had no pressure on inventory, downstream demand was insufficient, and adhesive short fibers remained stable in operation. After the new year, the inventory of factories is not high, and the maintenance of equipment in factories in Shandong continues, resulting in a decrease in supply. The trend of raw materials is strong, and cost support is still acceptable. The opening of adhesive short fibers is good, and most adhesive short fiber factories have raised their prices to a certain extent. Moreover, the production of yarn and terminals has gradually increased, and there may be an increase in demand. However, the overall investment atmosphere has not significantly improved, and manufacturers mainly focus on executing orders. The overall stability of downstream human cotton yarn is relatively strong, with a slight increase in quotes from human cotton yarn factories and a slight reduction in discounts, while inventory is basically maintained.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in February 2024, the overall price of adhesive short fibers remained stable and increased. As of February 29th, the domestic factory quotation for 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13560 yuan/ton, an increase of 380 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly increase of 2.88%.

In terms of cost: In February, the trend of raw material dissolution slurry was relatively strong, and cost support remained strong. The price of imported broad-leaved dissolved pulp is around 880 US dollars per ton, and the price of coniferous dissolved pulp is around 910 US dollars per ton. At present, the production of dissolved slurry in Hunan and Shandong facilities in China is around 7600 yuan/ton, with a slight increase in price. Actual orders are negotiated.

Supply and demand: In February, the inventory of adhesive short fibers was limited. After the holiday, manufacturers continued to maintain their equipment, resulting in a decrease in supply and reluctance to sell. Downstream human cotton yarn factories have started construction one after another, replenishing goods as needed. Human cotton yarn is stable and relatively strong, and the market’s low-priced supply has slightly decreased.

In February, the overall market for human cotton yarn remained stable and slightly strong, with prices following the slight increase in raw material viscose short fibers. Some yarn factories slightly increased their quotations and reduced their discounts. Overall shipments were average, and inventory was basically maintained. As of February 29th, the average ex factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first grade) was 17550 yuan/ton, an increase of 225 yuan/ton or 1.30% compared to the beginning of February.

Future Market Forecast

Recently, the price center of raw material dissolution pulp has been strong, with strong cost support and tight inventory of adhesive short fibers. At the end of February, some adhesive short fiber equipment maintenance in Shandong region is approaching its end, and the supply of adhesive short fibers may increase, and the inventory situation may improve. The production of yarn and terminals is gradually increasing, and there may be an increase in demand. Business Society analysts predict that in the short term, the trend of adhesive short fibers may be mainly stable, medium to strong; The market situation of human cotton yarn will be mainly stabilized and operated steadily.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of February 28th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8150.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.31% compared to the price on February 1st.

The market situation of epichlorohydrin remained stable with minor fluctuations in February. The pre holiday cost support is average, the industry’s capacity utilization rate is low, and the supply side inventory operates without pressure. After the downstream stage replenishment, the enthusiasm for inquiry and procurement decreases. With the approaching holiday and the impact of logistics transportation, the market atmosphere is calm and wait-and-see, and the focus of negotiations on epichlorohydrin is mainly stable. After the holiday, the factory mainly delivers contracts and orders, and the inventory pressure accumulated during the holiday gradually eases. Some enterprises have export orders to support their price boosting mentality, but downstream demand recovery is slow. The attitude of inquiry and procurement is cautious, and small orders with low demand are mainly selected. New orders in the market are generally sold.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on February 27th was 6895.75, an increase of 0.77% compared to February 1st (6843.25), providing moderate support for the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for downstream epoxy resin on February 27th was 13333.33, an increase of 1.52% compared to February 1st (13133.33), which provides limited support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current market is dominated by poor demand, and shippers are under pressure to ship. It is expected that the market for epichlorohydrin may be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

Recent trends in urea prices

Agricultural demand is gradually starting, and urea prices in Shandong have slightly increased this week. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of urea in Shandong increased from 2506.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2525 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.73%, and the weekend price decreased by 9.79% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, some gas companies have resumed production and started operating higher. The data shows that the operating rate of domestic coal urea enterprises this week is about 86.1%, while that of gas urea enterprises is about 85.8%. The daily urea production in China is about 190000 tons. The mainstream urea manufacturers in Shandong saw a slight increase in factory prices during the week.

From the upstream market perspective, there were ups and downs in the urea upstream market this week: the price of liquefied natural gas plummeted by 7.02%, and the weekend price fell by 41.35% year-on-year. Affected by rainy and snowy weather in some regions of China, market circulation is restricted, terminal demand is released slowly, and the trading atmosphere is poor. The price of liquid ammonia increased by 4.68%, and the weekend price fell by 37.13% year-on-year. However, the prices of anthracite coal have remained low and have stabilized. Over the weekend, the price of Yangquan anthracite coal (washed lump) was 960 yuan/ton, indicating a continued weak trend in the coal market in the short term. Overall, upstream raw material prices fluctuate, providing moderate support for urea prices.

From the perspective of downstream demand: agricultural demand is gradually starting, and industrial demand is following the market. Composite fertilizer, board, and melamine enterprises are operating at a low level, with a focus on procurement for essential needs. This week, the downstream price of melamine in urea has stabilized at a high level, with a price of 7475 yuan/ton. From the perspective of exports: Although there are still bids overseas, the impact of urea export policies on the domestic market is not significant.

In the future, the urea market in Shandong may experience a slight fluctuation and increase in late February. Business Society urea analysts believe that the upstream market of urea has significantly declined, and the cost support for urea is insufficient. But downstream industries are mainly in demand, and agricultural demand is gradually starting. In the future, urea may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and mainly rise.

This week, the domestic titanium tetrachloride market was operating steadily, with an average price of 10950.00 yuan/ton as of February 2, unchanged from the same period last week.

The high market price of raw materials and high slag still operates at a high level, resulting in significant cost pressure for production enterprises. Downstream procurement sentiment is insufficient, with a focus on essential procurement. The titanium tetrachloride market remains strong.

Business Society’s titanium tetrachloride analyst believes that the titanium tetrachloride market may remain stable in the short term due to high cost support and limited downstream product demand.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of February 4, 2024, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference was 15000 yuan/ton. Compared with January 29 (organic silicon DMC reference was 15040 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 40 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.27%.

From the monitoring chart of Business Society data, it can be seen that this week (1.29-2.4), the overall domestic organic silicon DMC market showed a slight fluctuation and a downward trend. At the beginning of the week, Shandong large factories slightly lowered the shipment price of organic silicon DMC, by about 100 yuan/ton. The price adjustment by large factories broke the high stability and calm situation of the organic silicon DMC market, and the organic silicon DMC market experienced narrow fluctuations. Suppliers may follow the footsteps of large factories or adjust the shipment price of organic silicon DMC narrowly based on their own inventory factors, with an adjustment range of about 100 yuan/ton. As of February 4th, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC is based on around 14800-15600 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the future trend of organic silicon DMC market

As the Spring Festival approaches, logistics in some regions of China have also started to stop shipping and operation. The trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is gradually quiet, and downstream procurement and stocking have basically ended. The overall market atmosphere is gradually mild and calm. According to the organic silicon DMC data analyst from Shengyishe, in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market will mainly operate steadily, with limited fluctuations in the market. More attention should be paid to changes in supply and demand news.

According to data monitored by Business Society, as of January 31st, the average price of industrial grade premium cyclohexane in China was 7000 yuan/ton. In January, the cyclohexane market saw a narrow decline, with a decrease of 1.64%, around 100 yuan/ton. Currently, the overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the market negotiation atmosphere is average.

In January, the market price of cyclohexane slightly declined, with mainstream prices around 7000 yuan/ton. The overall price of cyclohexane in January fell by 1.64%, and mainstream manufacturers maintained a price range of around 7000 yuan/ton. The upstream cost side was not supported enough, and downstream demand was limited, with on-demand procurement being the main focus. The overall market transaction atmosphere was cold, with enterprise quotations of 7400 yuan/ton for Jiangsu Runfeng Synthetic Technology Co., Ltd., 6800 yuan/ton for Nantong Runfeng Petrochemical Co., Ltd., and 7500 yuan/ton for Liaocheng Yuanze Chemical Products Co., Ltd.

Chemical index: On February 1st, the chemical index was 866 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 38.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and an increase of 44.82% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

Business Society’s cyclohexane analyst believes that in the short term, the cyclohexane market is mainly strong, with price fluctuations around 7100-7300 yuan/ton.

Review of mixed xylene market in 2023

In 2023, the mixed xylene market fluctuated widely, with an overall slight increase. According to the bulk list data from Business Society, the benchmark price of mixed xylene in the market was 6970 yuan/ton on December 31, an increase of 3.87% from 6710 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. The highest point for the year appeared at 8720 yuan/ton on September 19.

The international crude oil range fluctuated from January to April, with some support for the cost of mixed xylene; In 2023, four new PX devices were put into operation in China, with a total production capacity of 7.7 million tons all put into operation in the first half of the year. Mixed xylene has shifted from export to domestic use. In addition, the demand for mixed xylene in North America has remained high, providing strong support for mixed xylene. In addition, arbitrage activities between Asia and the United States have led to an increase in external prices, which has also driven up the price of mixed xylene; Taking into account the above factors, the mixed xylene market saw a significant increase from January to April.

The continued interest rate hikes by the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank from April to June have had negative feedback on the economy, leading to a bleak outlook for global demand and an increased risk of economic recession. The price of crude oil has dropped significantly, while the cost of mixed xylene has declined.

Against the backdrop of OPEC+continuing to reduce production in July, coupled with the United States entering summer, the driving season is the peak season for refined oil consumption. With the support of tight supply and strong demand in the market, oil prices continue to rise, and the cost of mixed xylene in the market has significantly increased. In addition, the widening interest rate spread between Asia and the United States has led to active exports of mixed xylene, driving it to rise rapidly.

From August to September, with the high price of mixed xylene, downstream resistance increased, and the mixed xylene market stabilized at a high level. At the end of September, as crude oil prices further rose, mixed xylene prices ultimately surged to the highest point of the year.

In the fourth quarter, on the one hand, domestic gasoline consumption has entered the off-season, and the demand for blending has also decreased. The overall demand for blended xylene is weak. On the other hand, the high level of the international crude oil market has significantly declined, and the cost center of blended xylene has significantly shifted, resulting in a continuous decline in blended xylene prices.

Market Outlook for Mixed Xylene in 2024

Cost side: The international crude oil price center expects a slight increase in mixed xylene costs, with support from the cost side

The external environment in which crude oil operates in 2024 is still quite complex, with a complex geopolitical situation and constant conflicts. This will have an unpredictable direct impact on oil prices, resulting in even more drastic fluctuations. In the long run, the supply-demand game remains dominant, and on the supply side, OPEC’s production control will continue to play a role in managing oil price expectations. The demand side faces more uncertainty, and an economic slowdown is likely to create a constraint on oil prices. According to the EIA report in December, the EIA lowered its forecast for Brent crude oil prices in 2024 to $83 per barrel, a decrease of $10 per barrel compared to the November forecast. Overall, due to the large number of oil price variables in 2023, oil prices have been operating at low levels for a long time, and the base oil price is not high. It is expected that the average oil price in 2024 may still be slightly higher than in 2023, but due to demand constraints, oil prices will not increase significantly.

Supply side: It is expected that the supply side of mixed xylene will continue to increase in 2024

In 2023, there is still a significant demand gap in the domestic mixed xylene market, with both industry supply and demand maintaining a growth trend. However, the growth rate of product supply is slower than downstream, and the structural tension is supporting product prices. In 2023, China’s mixed xylene production capacity and output both maintained a growth trend, but the growth rate decreased compared to previous years. In 2024, there will still be new production capacity for mixed xylene in China, and the tight supply situation is expected to be alleviated to a certain extent. In addition, with more refineries separating mixed xylene in the third quarter of 2023, the production of mixed xylene will significantly increase in 2024.

Demand side: Slow growth rate of mixed xylene market demand in 2024

In recent years, downstream PX plants for mixed xylene have been concentrated and put into operation. The total PX production capacity in China for the whole year of 2023 was 43.485 million tons, with an additional domestic production capacity of about 6.2 million tons. The total production is expected to be around 32.1 million tons in 2023, and the external dependence has decreased to 22%. In the next three years, there will still be nearly 10 million tons of newly added production capacity in China, providing strong support for the demand for mixed xylene.

The downstream mixing market is the second largest consumer industry for mixed xylene. With the increase in domestic car ownership, the consumption of gasoline has also increased, which has driven an increase in demand for mixed xylene. However, due to the improvement of gasoline quality in China, the proportion of mixed xylene has decreased. In addition, with the continued increase in the proportion of new energy passenger vehicles, the demand for mixed xylene in gasoline mixtures has grown relatively slowly.

Market forecast: Business Society’s mixed xylene analyst believes that the international crude oil price is expected to fluctuate slightly higher in 2024, and the cost of mixed xylene still has support. The supply of mixed xylene is expected to increase, and downstream PX production capacity will continue to grow significantly in the future. However, the demand in the mixed blending field will slow down, and overall, downstream mixed xylene will continue to support. Overall, it is expected that the toluene market in 2024 will fluctuate and rise.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the TDI price in East China slightly increased in late January. On January 30th, the average market price in East China was 16900 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton compared to the price of 16800 yuan/ton on January 21st, an increase of 0.60%.

In late January, the domestic TDI market was consolidating and operating, with slight price fluctuations. The filling of spot goods in factories is slow, with suppliers mainly raising prices. The trading market follows the market and actively ships. Many sets of TDI devices in factories have lowered their negative prices, slightly boosting the market. Holders have slightly increased their offers, but downstream purchases are average, and the market trading atmosphere is weak. There have been rumors of a small number of low-priced transactions, and the overall market growth is weak.

The upstream toluene market is relatively strong and rising. On January 30th, the domestic average price of toluene was around 6940 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.06% compared to the price of 6800 yuan/ton on January 21st. The international crude oil prices have fluctuated and risen, with good support from the cost and external prices of toluene. The rebound of toluene prices in Asia has provided some support to the domestic market, while downstream demand has shown weak performance and limited support for toluene. Under the influence of costs, the toluene market has slightly risen.

In the future market analysis, TDI data analysts from Business Society believe that the domestic TDI spot filling is slow, factories are mainly supportive of the market, and the trade market mentality is stagnant. Holders are actively shipping, but downstream purchasing enthusiasm is not high, and the rise of suppliers is limited. On the market, there is a strong wait-and-see sentiment. Under the supply-demand game, it is expected that the TDI market will remain stagnant and consolidate in the future. Specific attention will be paid to downstream purchasing situation and the release of market news from suppliers.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of January 29th, the average price quoted by epoxy chloropropane enterprises was 8125.00 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price on January 1st.

The market for epichlorohydrin remained stable in January. In the first half of the month, raw material prices adjusted narrowly, with average cost support and low industry capacity utilization. Enterprises mainly delivered contracts and self use, with tight spot supply. Downstream demand followed up with small orders after phased replenishment, resulting in a stalemate in the market atmosphere and average transactions. Holders adjusted their prices flexibly based on their own situation, and the focus of negotiations in the epichlorohydrin market remained stable with little movement. In the second half of the month, cost support is limited, and spot supply is tight and continuing. However, there is a lack of strong support in the demand side. Downstream rigid demand will follow up with price adjustments, and market negotiations will focus on stability.

Upstream propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price of propylene on January 29th was 6955.75, an increase of 1.27% compared to January 1st (6868.25), and the cost is generally supported by the epichlorohydrin market.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the reference price for downstream epoxy resin on January 29th was 13133.33, a decrease of 0.76% compared to January 1st (13233.33), indicating insufficient support for the epoxy chloropropane market.

Analysts from Business Society believe that the current cost impact is limited, with tight supply side spot support. However, downstream pre holiday stocking is nearing completion, and the market trading atmosphere is average. It is expected that the short-term market for epichlorohydrin may remain stable, and more attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has recently risen. At the beginning of the week, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8690.00 yuan/ton, and over the weekend, the average price of styrene in Shandong was 8750.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.69%. The price has increased by 9.38% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

Recently, the market price of styrene has risen. From the above chart, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly fluctuating and consolidating in the past three months, with slight fluctuations in the market this week. The supply side is tightening, international oil prices are rising, and cost support is still acceptable. As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream demand is poor, and spot transactions in the styrene market are flat, with slight fluctuations in the market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene fluctuated this week, with Sinopec’s pure benzene price at 7950 yuan/ton. Affected by the weakening of the external market, the market is resistant to high prices, and the negotiation atmosphere has weakened, resulting in a decrease in trading volume in both East China and Shandong. It is expected that pure benzene in East China will be weak.

On the downstream side, the prices of styrene in the three major downstream markets have fluctuated. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average PS quotation at the beginning of this week was 9566 yuan/ton, and the average PS price over the weekend was 9633 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.7% and a decrease of 1.03% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) price in the short term will mainly fluctuate.

The EPS market remained stable this week, with an average price of 10137.50 yuan/ton for ordinary materials over the weekend. EPS is affected by the upstream pull up, and the market atmosphere has slightly improved. It is expected that the domestic EPS market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations.

Recently, the domestic ABS market has seen a slight increase. As of January 26th, the average price of ABS sample products was 10862.50 yuan/ton, a+1.88% increase or decrease from the average price level at the beginning of the month. The recent trend of ABS upstream three materials is still good, with the acrylic nitrile market mainly consolidating. The price of propylene, the raw material, continues to rise, providing sufficient support for the cost of acrylonitrile. In the early stage, the supply of acrylonitrile was relatively loose, and the current market is buying coldly. The pre holiday stocking volume is average, and the market is balanced between long and short positions, with prices mainly being sideways.

The recent market expectations are optimistic, with international oil prices rising. However, as the Spring Festival approaches, styrene inventories are rising, and spot transactions are slow. It is expected that the short-term styrene market will mainly fluctuate and decline.

The overall domestic dimethyl ether market in Henan declined in January. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market was 3775 yuan/ton on January 1st, and 3725 yuan/ton on January 26th. The monthly decline was 1.32%, a decrease of 19.45% compared to the same period last year.

As of January 26th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various domestic markets are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream quotation

Shandong region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3700 yuan/ton

In January, the price center of dimethyl ether in the Henan region continued to shift downwards. In early January, due to the decline in raw material methanol, the price of dimethyl ether was lowered. Affected by the sluggish demand trend, upstream parking reduction enterprises continue to increase, and supply continues to decrease. However, due to the continued weak demand side, the price of dimethyl ether further declined after a period of stalemate and consolidation. At the end of the month, the price of raw material methanol increased, and the cost pressure of dimethyl ether increased. Under the contradiction of supply and demand, dimethyl ether did not keep up with the increase.

The methanol market fluctuated and rose in January, with significant price increases at the end of the month. From January 1st to 26th (as of 3:00 pm), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic methanol market increased from 2450 yuan/ton to 2565 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 4.89% during the cycle. The cost has increased, but the stability of dimethyl ether has led to significant cost pressure on dimethyl ether.

Overall, as the Spring Festival approaches, there has been no significant improvement in the downstream of dimethyl ether. With cost support, it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain a weak and stable operation.

This week, the lead market (1.15-1.22) overall rose, with the average price in the domestic market at 16085 yuan/ton at the beginning of last week and 16370 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, up 1.77%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar indicates the magnitude of the rise and fall, and the overall market trend has been weak recently. The market has been declining for three consecutive months, and the lead ingot market has seen more ups and downs in recent times.

The social inventory of lead ingots has been continuously declining recently, dropping to a low level within three years, boosting the futures market. Recently, lead prices have been more affected by supply and demand. In terms of supply, the mining supply is still tight, and some primary lead enterprises have recently resumed production. Some enterprises plan to conduct a review after the year, and the overall operating rate has not changed much. Recycled lead enterprises have been affected by high prices of waste batteries and tight supply, resulting in overall low production in recent times. Overall, the supply of lead ingots in the market is slightly tight, and downstream storage enterprises still have some stocking demand. They actively enter the market for inquiries, and the market atmosphere is good. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises are gradually entering the holiday season, and the market is expected to start lower in the future. The demand for stocking is almost coming to an end, and demand support is expected to be weak in the future. Overall, although the lead ingot market still has positive support from the supply side, downstream purchasing intentions are slowly falling, and it is expected that there will be significant resistance to further upward movement in the short term. There may be room for a pullback in the market after stocking up, and the short-term trend will remain weak and volatile.

Related data:

On January 21, the base metal index was 1161 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.16% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 80.84% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 21, the non-ferrous index was at 1092 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.00% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 79.90% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the third week of 2024 (1.15-1.19), there were a total of 8 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were tin (2.17%), dysprosium oxide (2.08%), and antimony (2.01%). There are a total of 10 products with a month on month decline, and the top 3 products with the largest decline are zinc (-1.71%), aluminum (-1.00%), and silver (-0.77%). The average increase and decrease this week is 0.11%.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market on January 15th was 811 yuan/ton, and on January 19th, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 881 yuan/ton. This week, the price of domestic ammonium sulfate market increased by 8.62%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has risen this week. This week, there has been an increase in market inquiries, an improved trading atmosphere, and a continuous increase in the bidding price of ammonium sulfate. Recently, the international urea price has risen, which has indirectly benefited the ammonium sulfate market. As of January 19th, the mainstream market price for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 830 yuan/ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation for ammonium sulfate in Shandong region is around 900-960 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Analysts from Shengyishe Ammonium Sulfate believe that the price trend of ammonium sulfate has been improving recently. Particle manufacturers actively follow up, replenish downstream as needed, and remain cautious about high prices, with limited room for growth. It is expected that the domestic ammonium sulfate market will be relatively strong in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

Review of the market situation of butadiene rubber in 2023

In 2023, the market price of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the price of butadiene rubber at the beginning of 2023 was 10580 yuan/ton, and the price at the end of the year was 12430 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 17.49%; The low point of the year was 10330 yuan/ton, and the high point was 13380 yuan/ton, with an amplitude of 34.37%.

From January to February at the beginning of the year, on the one hand, the raw material butadiene significantly increased, and the cost of butadiene rubber increased. On the other hand, after the comprehensive opening up, downstream production gradually increased, and the price of butadiene rubber increased; From March to June, with a significant decline in the price of raw material butadiene and weak demand for loose supply of butadiene rubber, the price of butadiene rubber plummeted to the lowest point of the year; Supported by four factors from July to September, including an increase in tire production, a significant increase in raw material prices, rotating maintenance of butadiene rubber equipment, and a bullish sentiment towards the listing of butadiene rubber futures funds, the price of butadiene rubber began a second round of increase, reaching a peak of 13880 yuan/ton in September; Although the price of butadiene continued to rise slightly after the National Day holiday, the price of butadiene rubber gradually declined due to negative factors such as increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene and a gradual decline in downstream tire production in the off-season; At the end of the year, due to the impact of multiple equipment maintenance for butadiene rubber, the production of butadiene rubber decreased to a low level of 5.5%. In a tight supply situation, the price of butadiene rubber rebounded.

In summary, there are three main factors that will affect the trend of butadiene rubber in 2023: firstly, the tire production in 2023 has increased to a certain extent compared to 2022, supporting the overall upward trend of butadiene rubber market in 2023 from the demand side; 2、 The price of raw material butadiene fluctuated widely, and the cost side boosted the rise of butadiene rubber at the beginning of the year and in the third quarter; 3、 In 2023, only Zhejiang Petrochemical’s new production capacity of 100000 tons/year of butadiene rubber was put into operation, and there was not much increase in production capacity. However, the rotating maintenance of multiple units of butadiene rubber during the year caused a tight supply side, which helped push up the price of butadiene rubber in the third quarter and at the end of the year.

Market forecast for butadiene rubber in 2024

Cost side: More new production capacity for butadiene, expected decrease in cost of butadiene rubber

According to Business Society, there will be a significant increase in the production capacity of raw material butadiene in 2024. Although downstream production capacity of butadiene has also increased to some extent, the overall increase is not as fast as the expansion of butadiene, and there will be more production in the second half of the year. It is expected that the supply of butadiene will face significant pressure in 2024, especially in the second half of the year when the market will operate under pressure. As of the end of November 2023, the butadiene production capacity in 2023 was 6.416 million tons; In 2024, the new production capacity of butadiene will reach 1.07 million tons, and the butadiene production capacity will reach 7.486 million tons.

Supply side: The continued increase in production capacity of butadiene rubber is expected to bring certain pressure to the 2024 market

After the addition of 100000 tons of new annual production capacity of butadiene rubber in 2023 (already put into operation), the new annual production capacity of butadiene rubber in 2024 is 320000 tons, and nearly half of the new production capacity will be released by the end of 2024. This will gradually increase the pressure on the supply side of butadiene rubber in 2024, especially starting from the end of 2024, the pressure will reach a new high.

Demand side: Domestic tire production capacity continues to expand in 2024, and demand for butadiene rubber is expected to increase slightly

In 2024, domestic tire production capacity will continue to expand. It is reported that in 2024, the production capacity of semi steel tires and full steel tires will increase by 25 million and 5.5 million, respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and 2.5%. In addition, the expected increase in both internal and external demand for tires in 2024 will support the domestic tire industry to maintain a high operating rate, which in turn will support the market for butadiene rubber in 2024.

The driving force for tire demand in 2024 is divided into two paths: internal and external. On the one hand, the expected increase in domestic automobile production and sales provides support for tire demand. Affected by the expansion of domestic demand and industrial policy support, the demand for tires will continue to grow domestically. It is reported that at the 2024 China Automotive Market Development Forecast Summit held on December 11, 2023, the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM) predicted that the sales of automobiles and new energy vehicles in 2024 would be approximately 31 million and 11.5 million respectively, with a year-on-year increase of 3% and 20%. On the other hand, the improvement of domestic tire technology and low prices have continuously enhanced the competitiveness of Chinese tires in the international market. In addition, the development of emerging markets such as Mexico and Brazil has created opportunities for Chinese tire exports. It is expected that the domestic tire export volume will continue to increase compared to the same period in 2024.

Looking ahead to 2024, due to increased pressure on the supply side of butadiene, the overall price expectation is expected to decline, and the cost of butadiene rubber in 2024 will decrease to a certain extent compared to 2023. Therefore, it is expected that the profit of the butadiene rubber industry in 2024 will actually increase compared to 2023; The downstream demand for butadiene rubber is expected to continue to grow slightly, and driven by profits, it is expected that the production of butadiene rubber will remain relatively high in 2024.

Overall, in 2024, the price of butadiene rubber may show a trend of high in the front and low in the back. In the first half of the year, there is not much pressure on the new production capacity of raw material butadiene, and the cost and demand aspects of butadiene rubber support the high price operation; In the second half of the year, the concentrated release of new butadiene production capacity will weaken the cost support for butadiene, and driven by profits, the supply of butadiene rubber will increase, and the price of butadiene rubber will gradually decline. It is expected that the high point of the butadiene rubber market in 2024 will occur in the first half of the year, with an expected high point around 14500 yuan/ton; The low point of the 2024 market is expected to occur in the second half of the year, with the low point expected to be around 11000 yuan/ton.

From January 8th to January 15th, 2024, the antimony ingot market in East China slightly increased, with prices this week at 87250 yuan/ton, up 3.25%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has been continuously rising in recent times.

This week, the price of European strategic small metal antimony has declined, reaching $12150/ton as of January 15th, up $500/ton. Currently, supply is tight and the market atmosphere is strong.

The antimony ingot market has maintained a relatively stable operation since October and continued until mid December. Starting from mid December, the antimony ingot market has continuously increased, reaching 87250 yuan/ton this week. From the perspective of supply and demand, the supply side has been affected by the increasing difficulty of importing antimony ore from overseas. Recently, the situation of tight supply at the domestic mining end has been more obvious, and the reluctance of smelters to sell has further strengthened. Factory prices have been reported high, and the overall sentiment in the spot market is also strong. In terms of demand, with the digestion of inventory in the early stage and the reluctance of smelters to sell, the demand for replenishment in downstream industries such as antimony oxide has begun to increase. Inquiries about antimony ingots are active, and as the Spring Festival holiday approaches, downstream enterprises generally have stocking needs. Currently, they are actively purchasing, and market trading has significantly improved. Overall, the antimony ingot market has a tight supply and good demand. With the dual benefits of supply and demand, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will maintain a strong trend in the short term.

This week, the antimony oxide market followed the overall upward trend of antimony ingots, with an increase of about 2000 yuan/ton during the week. At present, the domestic spot market atmosphere is good, and overseas sales are showing positive performance. Antimony oxide enterprises have sufficient procurement plans in the near future and are actively inquiring about antimony ingots. The market supply is tight, and the market atmosphere is strong.

On January 14th, the antimony commodity index was 121.46, unchanged from yesterday and reaching a new historical high within the cycle, up 158.54% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

On January 14th, the base metal index was 1166 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 27.85% from the highest point in the cycle of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 81.62% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

On January 14th, the non-ferrous index was at 1096 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 28.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 80.56% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the second week of 2024 (1.8-1.12), there were a total of 5 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that showed a month on month increase in commodity prices. The top 3 commodities with the highest increase were nickel (3.90%), antimony (3.25%), and lead (2.16%). There are a total of 15 products with a month on month decline, and 4 products with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 16.7% of the monitored products in this sector; The top three products with a decline were dysprosium iron alloy (-14.09%), dysprosium oxide (-13.71%), and metallic dysprosium (-13.33%). The average increase and decrease this week is -2.45%.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of January 12th, the main report of the stearic acid market was around 8180 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20 yuan/ton compared to January 2nd. Starting from mid to late December, the stearic acid market has experienced a slight downward trend in a step-by-step manner. The market for raw material palm oil has rebounded, with prices continuously rising.

Raw palm oil: According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, on January 11th, the average market price of palm oil was 7266 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.64% compared to January 4th. The domestic palm oil market has returned to an upward trend. Due to the expected decrease in Malaysian palm oil inventory data, the external Malaysian palm oil futures market has risen for several days, boosting the domestic palm oil futures market. Spot prices have followed suit and fluctuated for nearly a week, with prices rising by over 4% compared to January 4th.

Market forecast: The palm oil market is recovering and prices are continuously rising. However, due to the drag of demand and the lack of strong support for the stearic acid market, there is sufficient supply of goods in the stearic acid market, and the factory operating rate is less than 50%. Downstream demand is weak. The confidence of business owners has weakened. It is expected that the domestic stearic acid oscillation consolidation will be the main trend in the near future.

In just the past year of 2023, global input inflation, escalating geopolitical conflicts, slowing growth in commodity demand, and increasing operational risks have caused the global economy to fluctuate. As a member of the end products of petrochemical and coal chemical industries, EVA plastic is also difficult to stand alone, and the overall market is deeply affected by the macro environment. On the other hand, the EVA industry has also gained opportunities for development in China in 2023. Can the heat of China’s EVA industry be ignited in 2024, and how will the market trend be? This forecast report will take you forward to the EVA market situation this year.

Consumer Review and Forecast

Firstly, let’s review the domestic EVA consumption situation from far to near. From the above figure, it can be seen that China has become a major consumer and importer of EVA. Although the proportion of import dependence on products is gradually decreasing, there is still a significant gap. The strong demand has driven the import of EVA to fluctuate and rise. Compared to the import volume, China’s EVA export volume is very small. It is expected that in 2024, the products of domestic local enterprises will still be mainly used to meet the domestic market demand, and the import and export pattern will remain unchanged.

At the same time, with the continuous advancement of infrastructure in various fields, EVA terminal products have achieved stable growth. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA will continue to increase in different sub sectors. According to relevant calculations, due to downstream demand, domestic EVA consumption will continue to grow at an annual rate of 8.4% in the next five years. It is expected that the domestic EVA consumption in 2024 will not be less than 3.4 million tons.

Prediction of Domestic EVA Consumption Structure

In the downstream consumer sector, traditional industries such as foam shoe materials and cables have seen slow growth in consumption in recent years, resulting in lower than expected overall demand and long-term pressure on the EVA market. In recent years, the photovoltaic power generation industry has developed rapidly. Last year, the domestic photovoltaic power generation grid connected installed capacity was about 170GW or more, which is about 95% higher than the total installed capacity of 87.41GW in 2022. The production of photovoltaic power generation modules has significantly exceeded expectations, driving a surge in demand for photovoltaic film. The consumption of EVA photovoltaic materials in 2023 exceeded the forecast at the beginning of last year, and the overall consumption accounted for more than half.

Summary of Recent Domestic Photovoltaic Policies

Due to the constraints of international climate agreements and other legal provisions that require countries to bear corresponding carbon reduction responsibilities, the research and application of new clean energy will be long-term, and the market space of related industries will continue to expand. On the other hand, controlling carbon emissions is an inevitable choice for China’s sustainable development, and energy substitution is an important path. As a relatively optimal solution, photovoltaic power generation schemes have received strong policy support in recent years. According to the prediction of the China Photovoltaic Industry Association, the installed capacity of photovoltaic power generation equipment will continue to grow this year, and the total demand for EVA will continue to rise due to the boost of photovoltaic film.

Supply and Capacity Planning

Domestic EVA production capacity forecast

At present, the demand for EVA in both domestic and foreign markets is vast, and it has become a business that domestic refining enterprises are eager to layout. According to the existing investment and construction plans with announced completion dates, China’s new EVA production capacity will be at least 900000 tons/year by 2024, and it is expected that the total domestic production capacity will reach over 3.35 million tons/year by the end of the year. If calculated based on the average domestic load of 85% last year, it is expected that the total production of local enterprises in China will reach over 2.84 million tons by 2024.

The domestic industry is rapidly expanding and competition is significantly strengthening. In addition, except for some coal chemical bases, EVA enterprises in China are mainly concentrated in coastal areas, with East China’s EVA production capacity accounting for up to 66%, and East and South China accounting for 90% of the total domestic consumption. The production and sales pattern is dual centralized. It is expected that the EVA industry will continue to compete for cost reduction and efficiency improvement this year, and further mature.

Market forecast

According to the monitoring of Business Society, the EVA market for the year 2023 began to rise at 13633.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year, but turned volatile and fell by the beginning of the second quarter. As of December 31, the EVA price was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 16.14% for the whole year, and the overall trend rose and fell.

In 2023, the EVA market prices are under pressure and will decline. In the first quarter, the installed capacity of photovoltaics significantly exceeded expectations, and the demand for stocking drove the market up. After the positive demand for photovoltaic materials is phased out, the demand for traditional industries is low and overall is lower than expected. In the third quarter, prices rebounded slightly, and the seller camp had a willingness to raise prices, but they all suffered successive defeats after rebounding. Subsequently, the weak decline continued until the end of the year, and prices have fallen to a three-year low.

Based on the previous analysis, there are three prominent points in the domestic EVA market pattern:

Firstly, there is a double increase in supply and demand. China’s EVA production capacity is rapidly expanding, and the downstream photovoltaic industry has huge demand potential. The supply and demand of the EVA market will inevitably increase in 2024.

Secondly, policy support. In recent years, whether it is the pressure of international carbon reduction or the frequent support policies for the domestic photovoltaic power generation industry, the research and production of EVA products will continue to be promoted.

Thirdly, competition intensifies. EVA production in China is concentrated in the southeast coast, while consumption is concentrated in East and South China. The explosive expansion of production capacity will inevitably intensify market competition.

Overall, with the comprehensive promotion of the domestic economy and infrastructure construction, the EVA industry chain and the field of residential life will also achieve stable development. Under the combined action of these factors, the demand for EVA in different sub sectors will steadily increase. Especially in the photovoltaic industry, it will continue to maintain a high-speed growth momentum.

But as more new players enter at lower levels, the popularity of EVA products will inevitably increase. The increasingly fierce competition in the EVA industry will give rise to higher end and cheaper products, and the industry will gradually mature while achieving significant development. Therefore, the focus of the EVA market in 2024 may continue to decline.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China on January 1st was 5433 yuan/ton. On January 7th, the average market price of chlorinated paraffin 52 in China was 5500 yuan/ton, and the price of chlorinated paraffin increased by 1.23% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of chlorinated paraffin has increased this week. This week, the prices of raw material liquid wax and liquid chlorine have increased, leading to increased cost support. Downstream on-demand procurement, chlorinated paraffin manufacturers maintain stable shipments, and some enterprises increase prices with raw materials. As of January 7th, the ex factory price of 52 environmentally friendly chlorinated paraffins in Anhui region is around 5600 yuan/ton, and the national standard market price of 52 chlorinated paraffins in Shandong region is around 5100-5500 yuan/ton.

In terms of raw material liquid wax, the price of liquid wax fluctuated and increased this week, with liquid wax fluctuating with the crude oil market. In terms of raw material liquid chlorine, the price of liquid chlorine has continued to rise this week. At present, the device is operating normally, and on-site trading is still acceptable, with transaction negotiations being the main focus.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society’s chlorinated paraffin analysts believe that the market for chlorinated paraffin raw materials has been stable and rising recently. Although there is support on the cost side, terminal demand is weak, and the market still maintains a cautious attitude. It is expected that the price of chlorinated paraffin will be adjusted and operated within a narrow range in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to changes in cost and demand.

According to price monitoring data from Business Society, as of January 5, 2024, the reference price for domestic n-propanol market was 7933 yuan/ton, which was basically the same as January 1, 2024. Compared with November 1, 2023 (reference price for n-propanol was 7766 yuan/ton), the price increased by 167 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36%.

From the data monitoring chart of Business Society, it can be seen that this week, the overall market situation of n-propanol in China remained stable and organized. As we enter the first week of 2024, the overall news of the domestic n-propanol market remains calm, with little change in on-site device operation. Downstream demand for n-propanol continues to be mainly for rigid procurement, with some small-scale stocking. The supply and demand transmission of n-propanol is stable, and the mentality of operators is good. The overall market volatility is relatively small. As of January 5th, the domestic market price of n-propanol in Shandong region is around 7300-7700 yuan/ton. The normal operation of the n-propanol plant in the Nanjing area, and the overall stable operation of the n-propanol market, with a reference price of around 8500-9000 yuan/ton for the n-propanol market. Dealers in different regions still have reservations about prices, and the difficulty in monitoring prices may lead to differences in specific negotiation situations. Each region also has differences, and actual negotiations are the main focus.

Prediction of future market trends of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere in the domestic n-propanol market is quiet and mild, with inquiries mostly for first-time orders. Business Society’s n-propanol data analyst believes that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will mainly adjust its range, and the specific trend still needs to pay more attention to changes in supply and demand news.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, in December 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market fluctuated upwards, with the average market price in East China reaching 80500 yuan/ton on the 1st and 81250 yuan/ton on the 28th, an increase of 0.93%.

On December 28th, the antimony commodity index was 113.11, an increase of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 6.87% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.46 points (2023-15), and an increase of 140.76% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market rose in December, with a quote of $11550/ton as of the 28th, an increase of $400/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market as a whole rose in December, with a slight recovery in overseas markets recently, which led to an improvement in the domestic market mentality and a slight increase in the spot market. At the end of the month, the downstream antimony oxide market slightly rebounded, and the export situation also improved compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. However, the downstream antimony oxide market still maintains on-demand procurement, providing strong support for the antimony ingot market.

In December, the antimony ingot market remained stable for the first half of the month and steadily increased in the second half, with an overall increase of 750 yuan/ton. The antimony ingot market has maintained a stable operation since October, with a strong supply-demand game mentality. It was not until the end of December, driven by downstream factors, that the stable trend of nearly two months was broken, and prices slightly increased. In terms of supply, recent changes have been limited, and mining supply remains tight. However, this news has been largely digested, and its impact on the market is limited. With the recent stabilization of the market, the mentality of smelters to be reluctant to sell and raise prices has begun to increase. However, the tight supply at the mining end has not been improved, and the overall supply of antimony ingots is tight. In terms of demand, the downstream antimony oxide market has recently slightly rebounded, and the export situation has also improved compared to the previous period, driving the overall recovery of the raw material market. Overall, at the end of the year, some companies had a demand for capital recovery and actively shipped goods, which led to an improvement in market trading sentiment. However, without clear guidance from the spot market, it is expected that the antimony ingot market will continue to operate temporarily and steadily in the near future. We will pay attention to changes in downstream demand and the performance of overseas markets in the future.

On December 28th, the non-ferrous index was 1111 points, an increase of 4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 27.76% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 83.03% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present).

Cobalt prices fluctuated and rose in December

According to the cobalt market analysis system of the Business Society, as of December 29th, the price of cobalt was 220900 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.87% compared to the cobalt price of 219000 yuan/ton on December 1st; The cobalt price has increased by 4.00% compared to December 7th at 212400 yuan/ton. In November, cobalt terminal consumption improved, but the production of ternary materials, ternary precursors, and cobalt sulfate still contracted. The industrial chain actively promoted the elimination of raw material inventory, and cobalt prices fell to the historical absolute bottom area. Supply decreased and demand increased, and cobalt prices rebounded and rose in December.

The demand for ternary battery terminals is recovering

According to data from the China Automotive Power Battery Industry Innovation Alliance, in terms of vehicle installation volume, in November, China’s power battery installation volume was 44.9GWh, a year-on-year increase of 31.0% and a month on month increase of 14.5%. The installed capacity of ternary batteries is 15.7 GWh, accounting for 35.0% of the total installed capacity; The installed capacity of lithium iron phosphate batteries is 29.1 GWh, accounting for 64.9% of the total installed capacity. In November, the installed capacity of ternary batteries increased significantly, the proportion of ternary batteries rebounded, the terminal demand for ternary batteries rebounded, and the demand in the cobalt market increased.

With the continuous decline in nickel and cobalt prices, the cost gap between ternary batteries and lithium iron phosphate batteries has further narrowed, highlighting the cost-effectiveness advantage of ternary batteries. It is expected that the sales of ternary batteries will increase in the future. Ternary batteries are favorable for cobalt market demand.

Mobile phone sales rebounded

According to data from the China Academy of Information and Communications Technology, in October 2023, the shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 29.162 million units, a year-on-year increase of 19.7%. From January to October 2023, the total shipment volume of mobile phones in the domestic market was 230 million units, a year-on-year increase of 4.2%. The year-on-year increase in mobile phone shipments has boosted the demand for cobalt in the mobile phone market.

The import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased

According to data released by the General Administration of Customs, the import volume of cobalt raw materials in November was 13600 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 88%; The cumulative import volume of cobalt raw materials from January to November was 103800 metal tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.3%. The import volume of cobalt raw materials has significantly increased, and the supply of cobalt in the market has increased.

Overview and Outlook

According to Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst at Business Society, the sales of ternary batteries have increased, mobile phone sales have rebounded, demand for cobalt in the market is expected to rise, and the import volume of cobalt raw materials has increased significantly. However, domestic production of ternary materials has contracted, the industrial chain has been destocked, and the supply of metallic cobalt is sufficient. Overall, cobalt prices have fallen to historic lows, bottoming out, and both supply and demand in the cobalt market have increased. It is expected that cobalt prices will fluctuate slightly in the future.

On December 1, 2023, the electrolytic manganese market first rose and then stabilized, showing an overall upward trend. The spot market price in East China was at 13750 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 13900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 1.09%.

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the weekly and monthly electrolytic manganese K-bar charts above, it can be seen that the recent trend of the electrolytic manganese market is relatively stable.

In terms of manganese ore: The manganese ore market was weak in December. Affected by weather factors, downstream manufacturers have increased their inquiries and stock up, resulting in a significant increase in market activity. The transaction prices at ports are inconsistent. Although there have been low-priced transactions, it appears that most miners have weakened their willingness to ship at low prices. With the gradual arrival of winter storage pace in the later stage, demand for manganese ore may gradually improve. As of December 28th, Tianjin Hong Kong Macao Block is priced at 36 yuan/ton (down 0.4 yuan/ton), Gabon is priced at 34.8 yuan/ton (unchanged), and South Africa’s semi carbonated carbon is priced at 30.5 yuan/ton (up 0.1 yuan/ton); Qinzhou Hong Kong Macao block is priced around 36.3 yuan/ton (down 0.7 yuan/ton), Gabon is priced around 35.3 yuan/ton (down 0.7 yuan/ton), and South African semi carbonates are priced around 31 yuan/ton (up 0.3 yuan/ton).

In December 2023, the electrolytic manganese market first rose and then stabilized. In the first half of the month, the electrolytic manganese market slightly rebounded, and the mainstream market price rose to 12300-12500 yuan/ton, with a cumulative increase of 200 yuan/ton. At the beginning of the month, some southern enterprises had production reduction plans. Under the influence of tight supply expectations, enterprises had a strong mentality of price support, and factory prices were raised one after another. It was difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and market expectations improved, driving up spot market prices. Due to the lack of significant increase in downstream demand in the mid to late period, the spot market without demand support has little room for further upward growth. Under the mentality of supply-demand game, the market maintained a temporary stable operation for about half a month. As of the end of the month, there has still been no significant change in supply and demand. Due to the long-term stable operation of the market, the overall trading volume in the spot market is slightly sluggish, and the mentality of smelters to raise prices is still strong. In terms of demand, downstream steel mills purchase on demand, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance. Overall, the market lacks clear guidance and sentiment is weak. It is expected that the spot market will operate weakly in the short term, and the market is waiting for a new round of steel bidding price guidance.

In December, shrouded in haze, the sluggish silicon and manganese market continued. In December, the bidding price for silicon and manganese fell, causing increased losses for manufacturers. Production enthusiasm was low, inventory still needed to be consumed, high prices were difficult to achieve, and market confidence was insufficient. According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the market price of silicon manganese in Ningxia region (specification FeMN68Si18) was around 6150-6250 yuan/ton on December 28th, with an average market price of 6215 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.10% compared to the beginning of the month.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 26th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in China was 133600.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.60% compared to December 1st.

The domestic lithium hydroxide market continued its downward trend in December. Within the month, the upstream lithium carbonate price weakened, the upstream spodumene concentrate market operated weakly, and the cost side continued to decline. The downstream demand for high nickel materials on the demand side was insufficient, and the market shipments were average. Merchants carefully followed up on low prices when picking up goods. The lithium hydroxide market transactions were mainly long-term contract orders, and the spot market atmosphere was light. Holders stimulated orders at low prices, and the focus of lithium hydroxide negotiations weakened.

Upstream lithium carbonate: According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, on December 26th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 95800.00, a decrease of 22.37% compared to December 1st (123400.00). The lithium carbonate market declined in December, weakening support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to analysts from Shengyishe Lithium Hydroxide, current cost support is weak, downstream procurement is slow to follow up, market trading enthusiasm is not high, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that the domestic lithium hydroxide market will continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, the domestic ethanol market was operating weakly in December. From December 1st to 26th, the average price of domestic ethanol producers first rose from 6787 yuan/ton and then fell to 6775 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.18% during the cycle, the maximum amplitude of 0.37%, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.52%.

At the beginning of the month, some regions experienced an increase in freight rates, which led to a slight increase in delivery prices. However, the factory’s shipment situation was weak, with actual orders mainly operating at the low-end. The domestic ethanol market is operating weakly. In the first half of the month, the weather conditions in some areas caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in enterprise orders and prices. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations. In mid month, snowfall affects delivery time, prices remain stable, orders are shipped, and transportation vehicles are difficult to find. The overall weakness of the domestic ethanol market is mainly due to consolidation. As the end of the month approaches, the domestic ethanol market is currently weak in supply and demand, with some regions experiencing a recovery in equipment and average demand.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. In mid December, the market volume of corn in the production area continued to increase. In addition, the new season corn was once again abundant, and the domestic corn market supply became more relaxed. Ports and deep processing corn inventories were relatively sufficient. Downstream trading entities had a strong wait-and-see attitude, and feed demand continued to be weak. Under the strong market supply and weak demand pressure, the domestic corn market prices continued to operate weakly.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 38.54% operating in East China and 91.04% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 19.65%; Short term domestic ethanol production and stable food supply in Northeast China. There is sufficient ethanol supply in the East China region. Coal based ethanol supply is stable. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in December. The ethyl acetate project in Anhui region is awaiting production. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish, and the transportation and delivery situation between regions in terms of supply and demand are greatly affected by weather factors. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the short-term domestic ethanol market situation may be dominated by weak consolidation.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price remained stable this week, with an average market price of 112.50 yuan/ton. The weekend price fell by 35.34% year-on-year. On December 24th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Weakened upstream support, average downstream demand

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have remained stable this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently experienced a slight decline, with weakened cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1772.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1778.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.35%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.27% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level. The market price is 702.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell 35.55% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and fall mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a low level, and downstream purchasing willingness is average. Analysts from Business Society believe that the hydrochloric acid market has been experiencing a slight fluctuation and decline in recent times.

Price trend

This week, the domestic EVA market has been consolidating and operating, with spot prices stabilizing slightly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 22, the benchmark price of EVA in China was 11433.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.54% from the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

The domestic EVA market is experiencing a price stalemate this week. On the supply side, the load level of domestic EVA enterprises continues to rise. The weekly industry operating rate is about 90%, and the weekly production has increased synchronously, while the market supply remains abundant. The maintenance plan for future equipment is insufficient, and the mentality of petrochemical plants is weak. The overall inventory position of EVA is on the rise, and merchants tend to offer at a discounted price. Recently, EVA suppliers have shown poor support for spot goods. Upstream ethylene levels out, while vinyl acetate tends to be stronger, providing decent cost support for EVA.

The weak performance on the demand side of EVA this week continues. The new quarter orders for foam shoe materials in the early stage have played a role in driving investment, and the purchasing level of photovoltaic enterprises is lower than expected. On exchange trading is concentrated on low-end offers, and the logic of buyers buying on dips remains unchanged. Lack of market buying sentiment and resistance to the return of high priced goods. The overall stocking operation on the market places orders as needed, and the acceptance of high priced goods by enterprises is average. Prices are deadlocked due to market pull from different directions.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the EVA price has remained stagnant this week. The raw material market provides moderate support for EVA spot prices. The industry load is high, and downstream demand is weak. Market confidence has weakened, and the profitability of enterprises has significantly declined. As the end of the year approaches, the expectation for increased consumption in the future is relatively low, and the market is unable to change the bearish guidance situation. It is expected that the EVA market will remain stagnant and consolidating in the short term.

The price of ortho xylene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.33% compared to the price of ortho xylene at 7500 yuan/ton on December 8th last weekend. The price of mixed xylene raw materials has increased, and the cost of ortho xylene has increased; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, while the market for plasticizers fluctuated and stabilized. Downstream demand rebounded, and the price of ortho xylene rose this week.

Raw material mixed xylene rebounds and rises

According to the analysis system of mixed xylene commodity market in Shengyishe, as of December 21, the price of mixed xylene was 6940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% compared to the price of mixed xylene on December 14, which was 6920 yuan/ton; Compared to the quoted price of 6900 yuan/ton on December 11th, it has increased by 0.58%. In December, the price of naphtha stopped falling and stabilized, while the price of mixed xylene increased. The cost of raw materials for ortho xylene increased, and the upward momentum of ortho xylene increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stops falling and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7475 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from the price of 7400 yuan/ton on December 14th. This week, the plasticizer market has stabilized strongly, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price of phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for demand for ortho benzene has increased.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and increased this week, leading to an increase in the cost of adjacent xylene; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises, the market for phthalic anhydride rebounds, and downstream demand for ortho benzene rebounds. In the future, the cost of ortho benzene has increased, demand growth has rebounded, and the ortho benzene industry chain market is favorable. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has been operating weakly. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20700 yuan/ton on December 18th, with a price increase or decrease of -2.97% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In mid December, the weakness of PA66 continued, and spot prices remained weak and consolidated. Overall, the recent market situation has seen a slight decrease in spot prices for various brands, a narrow decrease in production line operating rates, and an overall stable industry load of around 63%. The on-site supply of goods is moderate, the inventory position is average, the pricing operation of enterprises is cautious, and the support from suppliers is average. Terminal enterprises still rely on maintaining production as their main source of goods, with on-site stocking centered around essential needs, and weak support from the demand side for spot goods. On the upstream side, the tight supply of domestic hexamethylene diamine has eased, and there are still expectations of supply relaxation on the market, leading to a general stagflation adjustment in prices. Early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market, followed by consolidation after a price drop. At present, the market is mainly volatile, and the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is average. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

In mid December, the spot price of PA66 showed a weak consolidation. The fluctuation of raw material prices has provided moderate support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a stable and stable load, with average inventory positions. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from December 11th to 18th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9325 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year increase of 1.36%. The raw material pure benzene oscillates during operation, providing stable cost support. Downstream demand is average and often followed up on demand. Some companies are temporarily not shipping, coupled with good follow-up of chemical fiber orders last week, resulting in a decrease in factory low price quotations and a decrease in market low prices.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has seen a narrow rise, and crude oil futures have continued to rise in the early stage, providing some psychological support for on exchange transactions. Downstream customers are buying at low prices, and the pace of spot transactions is still acceptable. Negotiations are rising. As of December 18th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6845.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 62.86%, which is+0.92% higher than last week. The weekly production is 95300 tons, which is+01400 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market first fell and then rose, with upstream pure benzene prices rebounding. The cost side stopping the decline has supported downstream confidence. Although the supply of caprolactam has increased, the trading atmosphere in the caprolactam market has improved due to low inventory in the early stage and high inventory levels remaining low. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene market is expected to be strong and supported by consolidation, and downstream demand for cyclohexanone is expected to break through. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market may recover and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of nitric acid on December 11th this week was 2300 yuan/ton, and on December 8th it was 2250 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.17%.

On December 11th, the price of concentrated nitric acid was weak, with an increase in upstream supply and no significant increase in downstream demand. Transactions were mainly orders, with a focus on market transactions.

During the period of 12.11-12.15, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 0.42%, the downstream aniline price remained stable, the TDI price decreased by 0.6%, and the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.46%. At present, the supply of goods in the market has increased, and the demand in downstream industries is average. Acid prices continue to decline due to weak transactions. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may mainly fluctuate weakly.

At the beginning of the week, information about the delayed arrival of phenol at the port was released, causing traders to push up their offers. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market was quoted at 7765 yuan/ton on December 7th, and at 7867 yuan/ton on December 13th, an increase of 1.3%.

On the 11th, the inventory of phenol at Jiangyin Port was 13000 tons. The originally planned shipment to Hengyang in the middle of last week was delayed, and the goods were prioritized to be sent to Tianjin and other places. However, there was no replenishment of imported cargo. At that time, the East China market showed a tense situation, and trading quotes continued to rise. After rising for two consecutive days, the upward trend slightly eased on Wednesday.

The upward trend of raw materials has been supported, with pure benzene hitting the bottom and rebounding this week. The negotiated price has been pushed up to 6825 yuan/ton, and last week’s offer was at 6700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The upward trend of pure benzene is related to the strengthening of downstream styrene market, and the strong upward support of the market.

The downstream domestic bisphenol A market has been poorly negotiated, fluctuating downward, with a lack of favorable terminal conditions and sufficient spot supply. Traders have increased their willingness to ship according to market trends. The negotiated price in the East China region has reached 9850-9950 yuan/ton, while in other regions, there is a lack of market and actual order negotiations are sparse.

From the perspective of the business society, there is insufficient replenishment of phenol cargo in the short term, and the probability of domestic trade cargo arriving at port on weekends is high. In the near future, it is necessary to focus on the arrival time of imported cargo. The purchasing power on the demand side is average, and it is expected to maintain rigid demand as the main demand. If the imported goods successfully arrive in the market, there may be downward expectations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 4th to 11th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6787 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 0.37%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.18%. The weather conditions in some areas have caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in prices for enterprise orders. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 37.97% operating in East China and 95.13% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 18.65%; In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, there is a bearish cost situation and significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 95.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 112.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 18.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 35.34% over the weekend. On December 10th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1760.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1763.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.85% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a high level. The market price is 727.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 30.05% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have slightly increased, and downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and the same as the same period last year.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Recently, the international crude oil price trend has declined. As of the 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.34 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.05 per barrel. The main reason is that the market is increasingly concerned about future energy demand, and the news is bearish for the crude oil market, with oil prices falling for six consecutive trading days. On the other hand, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) regularly releases inventory data. Especially with the surge in gasoline inventories, this has exacerbated the bearish sentiment towards fuel demand in the market. The crude oil market has declined, and the domestic xylene market prices remain weak.

The domestic PTA spot market is mainly volatile, with an average price of 5694 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, an increase of 0.33% from the price of 5675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA equipment, it can be seen that the PTA equipment has been operating relatively steadily this week, with an industry operating rate of over 80%. The downstream polyester production load is above 87%, and cost support is weakening. The polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with the consumption of early raw material stocking as the main focus, resulting in a stalemate in transaction focus. The trading atmosphere in the short fiber market is light, with many traders offering discounts on prices, and customers from yarn factories have limited orders and low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has moderately decreased to around 75%, coupled with low profits from raw fabrics, it is expected that a small amount of raw materials will be purchased at a low price by the end of the month. The unfavorable downstream market is bearish for the xylene market, and the PX market trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the range. In the early stages of downstream PTA maintenance equipment, new equipment is being restarted and put into operation. With the decrease in downstream polyester production load, the PTA market is under pressure, and it is expected that the terminal’s sustained replenishment may be difficult to sustain. It is expected that the market price of xylene may slightly decline in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7926.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of this month at 7906.50 yuan/ton. The market for refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and rose before falling back.

As of November 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7856.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from 7819.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight run naphtha fluctuated and rose before falling back.

Product: In November, the price of ground refined naphtha first increased and then decreased. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7700-7900 yuan/ton. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, with terminal demand procurement being the main focus, and there is a lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries lowering prices for shipments.

Upstream: In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and limited support for the domestic naphtha market.

Downstream: The toluene market continued to decline in November, with toluene prices at 6900 yuan/ton on November 1st and 6680 yuan/ton on November 29th, a decrease of 3.19% compared to the beginning of the month. The mixed xylene market continued to decline in November. On November 29th, the price of mixed xylene was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.68% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price trend of para xylene in November declined, with the domestic ex factory price of para xylene at 8300 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton.

According to energy analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil price has rebounded, and local refined naphtha is actively pushing up. In addition, a small amount of demand from local refined reforming units is currently being released, and it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will experience a slight increase in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in November. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.88%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 17.11% year-on-year. On November 29th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 37.06, a decrease of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 23.04% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a significant drop in prices in November, and their inventory levels were average.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in November. The price of propylene first increased from 7050.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7370.75 yuan/ton on November 8th, an increase of 4.54%, and then dropped to 7105.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.60%. In November, the overall price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 0.78%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.12% at the end of the month. The average upstream cost support has a bearish impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the market situation for downstream neopentyl glycol slightly declined in November. The market price of neopentyl glycol has dropped from 10525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.60%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 8.64% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to early December, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The downstream market for new pentanediol has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market has risen first and then fallen, with average cost support. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

The domestic bisphenol A market first suppressed and then rose, mainly due to mid month equipment maintenance and unplanned parking, which tightened the supply of bisphenol A in the market and drove it up. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, on November 1st, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was quoted at 10062 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, it was quoted at 9450 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the market once again rose to 10137 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.28%.

Region/ Price on November 1st/ Price on November 15th/ November 30th

East China region/ 10100./9550./10150

Shandong region/ 9900./9400./10100

Entering November, the two major downstream epoxy resins and PC of bisphenol A have weakened due to fluctuations, and the high levels of phenol and acetone at the raw material end have rebounded. The market sentiment of bisphenol A has weakened, and some factories and intermediaries have increased their intention to reduce inventory. Low price quotations are frequent, and the bisphenol A market has fallen from 10062 at the beginning of the month to 9450 yuan/ton at the end of the 15th day.

In the second half of the month, accompanied by a decrease in market inventory, domestic equipment malfunctions and some equipment shutdowns for maintenance. Among them, Cangzhou Dahua experienced a malfunction shutdown on November 12, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phase I experienced a malfunction shutdown on November 17, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I equipment shutdown for maintenance on November 21, and Changchun Chemical’s 270000 tons/year equipment shutdown in the first half of the month. The supply side is expected to tighten significantly, and in the second half of the month, both raw materials will rise, supported by cost side support, The bisphenol A market in East China has expanded to 10100-10150 yuan/ton. Quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the shutdown and maintenance of bisphenol A in December will decrease, and the maintenance equipment in November will stabilize operation in December. Additionally, three new bisphenol A equipment sets are planned to be put into operation. Considering the supporting equipment, there will still be a significant increase in the supply chain in December. On the demand side, there is a lack of significant benefits for downstream epoxy resins and PC terminals. Despite the expectation of new equipment being put into operation, the growth rate of demand is far lower than the supply expectation. From a cost perspective, the short-term fluctuations in the operation of the dual raw materials phenol and acetone are the main factors. Considering the continuous loss of bisphenol A in the early stage, the impact of cost on bisphenol A may be relatively small. Business Society predicts that, considering the many variables in the production of new devices and the difficulty in achieving significant positive demand, the bisphenol A market in East China may show a trend of first rising and then falling.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline in November. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 123400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.49% compared to the average price of 159200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 134000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.08% compared to the average price of 169800 yuan/ton on November 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate market remained weak in early November, with prices showing a trend of continuous decline. In terms of supply, the production lines of some large factories have recovered from maintenance, with a significant increase in production scheduling and operating rates, and an increase in the supply of lithium carbonate in the market. Combined with the high prices of lithium carbonate in the early stage, many enterprises have accumulated a large amount of lithium carbonate inventory. In order to reduce costs and recover funds, enterprises gradually clear their inventory, leading to a continuous increase in supply. The spot market, on the other hand, is mainly dominated by long order buying and selling, while the volume of individual orders is relatively small, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.

In terms of demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream markets is still not high, mainly based on long-term contracts and customer supply guarantee, and the purchasing willingness for individual orders is relatively low. Although the electric vehicle market is still growing, the growth rate has slowed down, coupled with weak demand growth in the energy storage market, resulting in lower than expected demand for lithium carbonate, further lowering prices.

In late November, the decline in lithium carbonate prices widened. On the one hand, it was affected by the significant decline in futures prices, and on the other hand, the market supply and demand imbalance led to a downward trend in prices. The supply side saw a surge of 84.5% to 16791 tons of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in October, leading to a continuous increase in lithium carbonate supply. As the end of the month approaches, the supply side of the market is facing even more difficulties. It is understood that a large salt lake factory has announced a release of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate. The price will be settled based on the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate from November 28th to December 25th, and a certain discount will be given based on the purchase volume, which will continue to put pressure on the price of lithium carbonate.

In terms of demand, downstream energy storage demand remained weak in late November, while positive electrode material companies remained in a wait-and-see attitude. In the downward trend of prices, there is currently no willingness to buy individual orders, and market transactions continue to be lackluster. Although trading companies have significantly lowered the sales price of lithium carbonate, market feedback shows that transactions are still relatively small. In addition, the recent decline in the premium between lithium carbonate spot and 2401 contract futures has made it difficult for some lithium carbonate trading companies to significantly discount sales, and their trading volume is also difficult to improve.

The lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly, with upstream lithium carbonate prices continuing to decline in November and upstream spodumene concentrate prices operating weakly. Cost support for the lithium hydroxide market is weakened, coupled with poor performance on the demand side. Market transactions are mainly long-term contract orders, and the atmosphere for bulk cargo transactions is weak. Downstream demand for high nickel materials is weak, and the enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is not high. The cautious and urgent need to follow up is the main trend. The trading atmosphere in the lithium hydroxide market is flat, The market is sluggish.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate has mainly experienced a narrow decline. In November, the price of lithium iron phosphate fell by 15.34%, with a decrease of 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream restocking is on demand, with poor demand and average stocking willingness. Upstream lithium carbonate experienced a significant decline in November, with limited cost support, sufficient supply, and slow shipment, putting overall market pressure on operation.

In terms of futures, the basis of lithium carbonate spot futures has widened in mid November, and some traders have engaged in basis trading, reducing prices and selling spot inventory, which has to some extent triggered bearish sentiment. Subsequently, lithium carbonate futures prices plummeted multiple times, hitting the limit down twice and continuously breaking new historical lows. On November 30th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 110000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 111350 yuan/ton and a closing price of 106200 yuan/ton. The daily decline was 5.81%, with a trading volume of 579000 lots and a position of 145034 lots.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the overall inventory of the lithium carbonate industry is still high, and the market circulation is still much higher than the actual downstream demand. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is maintained, and some smelting enterprises find it difficult to ship, with prices continuously declining. In addition, some traders have engaged in low price selling behavior, which has amplified the bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to decline under pressure in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market stabilized first and then fell, with prices slightly declining. The average market price in East China was 82500 yuan/ton on the 1st and 80500 yuan/ton on the 28th, a decrease of 2.42%.

On November 28, the antimony commodity index was 112.06, a decrease of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 7.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.46 points (2023-15), and an increase of 138.53% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market declined in November, with a quote of $11150/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of $500/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market followed the overall downward trend of the antimony ingot market in November, and the overall performance of overseas markets was poor. The latest export data for November shows that in October 2023, China exported a total of 2733.9 tons of antimony oxide, a decrease of 33.31% compared to the previous month. This also reflects that the overseas antimony oxide market is in the off-season, and the overall market demand is weak. The European antimony ingot market has continued to decline during the month, which has a significant impact on market sentiment. The performance of the antimony oxide market in November was poor, and most domestic enterprises maintain a strong demand for antimony ingots to replenish inventory, In the light of weak market sentiment, it is expected that the antimony oxide market will continue to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operation in the short term.

In November, the antimony ingot market continued its decline at the end of October, with a decrease of about 2000 yuan/ton within the month. From the perspective of supply and demand, there was not much overall change during the month. The supply of antimony ore remained tight, and smelters still had a reluctance to sell. Currently, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China is still tight, and the inventory in factories is generally low. However, some enterprises may have a need to recover funds by the end of the year. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises maintain a normal replenishment demand for the antimony ingot market while maintaining a basic replenishment demand. Overall, there has been no significant market news in the antimony ingot market recently, and it has remained stable with a weak trend. The overall news is relatively stable, and the market performance is in the off-season. In the future, it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term, with a focus on the sales plan of year-end smelters in the future.

On November 28th, the non-ferrous index was at 1085 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.45% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 78.75% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend remained stable in November. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year price increase of 1.27%.

In November, the domestic ammonium nitrate market prices remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the sales situation is average. Downstream demand is normal, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, and domestic purchases in the downstream civil explosive industry have been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3800-3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in November, with an average price of 2133.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 2.40% from the initial price of 2083.33 yuan/ton. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2300 yuan/ton. The market supply is normal, and the recent sales have been good. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and on-site transactions are normal. The price of raw material nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of the ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable.

In November, the domestic liquid ammonia market price slightly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4023.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72% from the beginning of the month’s price of 3916.67 yuan/ton. In November, the price of liquid ammonia first increased and then decreased, and overall, the price slightly increased. In early November, due to supply shortages, the northern region was mainly affected by equipment maintenance by manufacturers, coupled with some devices operating at reduced loads. The supply volume was delayed and manufacturers and distributors reported an increase in prices. In the later stage, when the maintenance equipment was restarted, the amount of ammonia released increased, and the price trend of liquid ammonia in the market declined. Since November, the import supply has also increased, which has had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Prices of large factories in Shandong, Hebei and other places have all been lowered. From the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable, and the atmosphere of urea speculation is falling, which is bearish for the domestic liquid ammonia market. The trend of the liquid ammonia market is falling. Overall, the liquid ammonia market saw a slight increase in prices in November, but the fluctuation in ammonium nitrate prices was not significant due to this impact.

Recently, there has been an increase in downstream purchase orders, coupled with an increase in the market price of raw material nitric acid. However, the trend of liquid ammonia prices has declined, and the combined influence of bullish and bearish factors has led to a slight increase in the market price of ammonium nitrate in the future, according to analysts from Business Society.

This week, the price of 441 # metallic silicon continued to remain stable. As of November 27th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The price of 441 # metallic silicon has remained stable for half a month, and both supply and demand sides have shown caution in their operations. Southwest silicon factories are mainly pushing up prices, while Northwest is under pressure to ship, with short-term upstream and downstream games being the main focus. In terms of futures, the overall trend is rising first and then falling, with a slight decline throughout the week. SI2401 rose or fell 0.46% throughout the week, closing at 14200 yuan/ton.

On the 27th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 24th, the total social inventory was 372000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 35000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week; Kunming delivered 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming delivered 79000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port had 39000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Tianjin delivery warehouse had 34000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week; The delivery warehouse in Xinjiang is 0.3, with a decrease of 0.1 thousand tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream quotation for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is 68333.33 yuan/ton. In October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment fell, and it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will continue to remain weak in the short term.

The organic silicon DMC market is experiencing a weak decline, with a market price reference of 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, resulting in weak demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remains weak due to difficulties in purchasing scrap aluminum and production losses.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the willingness of Southwest Silicon Plant to shut down has increased, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, a small number of Northwest manufacturers have increased their opening of furnaces, coupled with the arrival of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, resulting in significant supply pressure. Downstream product prices on the demand side have weakened, and there is no expectation of improvement in demand. Metal silicon lacks short-term upward momentum. But with further increases in electricity prices during the dry season, cost support is gradually increasing, and the space for silicon prices to fall is also limited. It is expected that metal silicon will maintain a volatile operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been improving this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2187.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2212.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.64%. On November 23, the baking soda commodity index was 146.68, an increase of 0.66 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.81% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 66.17% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is strong and the downstream market is purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2000-2300 yuan/ton. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash in the upstream of baking soda remains strong. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2190 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.02% and a decrease of 12.88% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been strong in recent times, and the upstream raw material pure alkali has been strong in recent times. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda will mainly require on-demand procurement in the near future. It is expected that the price of baking soda will consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the domestic phenol market has shown a strong upward trend, with a weekly increase of 5.64%. According to the analysis system of the Business Society, the national market quotation on November 13th was at 7857 yuan/ton, and on November 20th the market rose to 8192.50 yuan/ton. In terms of domestic factories, on November 20th, several major factories in North and East China of Sinopec raised their listing prices to 8100 yuan/ton.

The market supply has decreased. On November 13th, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port decreased to 11000 tons, and there was no replenishment of imported goods during the week. The arrival of domestic trade ships at the port was delayed, resulting in a shortage of imported resources.

There is slight support on the cost side. In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia may further postpone additional production cuts until next year, and international oil prices will continue to rise. In the new week, the East China pure benzene market will open low and rise high, with spot negotiation prices ranging from 7800 to 7900 yuan/ton. However, due to the weak opening of downstream styrene, the market’s action on pure benzene is insufficient, and the market is mostly dominated by far month transactions.

The downstream bisphenol A market is fluctuating and rising. In the new week, the bidding price of a certain petrochemical company in East China is rising, with delivery prices for qualified and premium products of 9350 yuan/ton and 9500 yuan/ton. The negotiated price in the East China region has been pushed up to 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and the overall trading volume needs to be improved. We will continue to pay attention to changes in upstream raw materials.

Future forecast: The replenishment situation of phenol shipments. Recently, Changchun Chemical and Guangxi Huayi Phenol Ketone plants have restarted, and the supply pressure is still good. Traders are confident in the short term. However, in the face of high prices, downstream resistance is obvious, and the possibility of terminal factories continuing to chase up prices is unlikely, suppressing the upward space of the market. Business Society estimates that the negotiated price in the East China phenol market is between 8100-8200 yuan/ton

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon remained stable. As of November 20th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. Overall, there is a differentiation in supply between the north and south. In terms of futures, the overall trend was initially suppressed and then increased, with a slight increase throughout the week and a relatively stable performance. SI2401 rose or fell 1.24% throughout the week, closing at 14265 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 20th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of November 16th, there were 413 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 56.65%, a decrease of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. 78 furnaces were opened in Yunnan, 67 furnaces were opened in Sichuan, and 152 furnaces were opened in Xinjiang. Due to the arrival of the dry season in the southwest region, the cost of silicon factories has increased, and the number of furnace shutdowns has increased, resulting in relatively strong quotations from silicon factories; There are still small profits in the northwest region, with an increase in the number of furnaces and sufficient supply of warehouse receipts for shipment. However, downstream purchasing sentiment is not high and prices are weak.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 17th, the total social inventory was 368000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 32000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week; Kunming has 49000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming has 79000 tons, which remains unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port has 39000 tons, with an increase of 2000 tons compared to the surrounding area; Xinjiang delivery warehouse is 0.4, with a decrease of 10000 tons compared to the previous month.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade is currently maintained at 6.5-7.5 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon remains the main demand force for metallic silicon, with 99 silicon powder signing orders one after another, but there is a strong pressure on prices.

The organic silicon DMC market is operating steadily, with a market price reference of 14540 yuan/ton. The overall market is in a period of consolidation and recovery, and the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC remains average. The operating load of individual factories has decreased, and the demand for metallic silicon is also average.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The factory has just released orders, and industrial silicon procurement has been actively inquiring and placing orders recently.

Future Market Forecast

Fundamentally, the metal silicon market is still in a situation of oversupply, with production gradually decreasing in the south. However, the increase in production by manufacturers in the northwest has resulted in a lower than expected decrease in the supply of metal silicon. This week, social inventory has once again accumulated, putting pressure on the supply side of metal silicon. From a cost perspective, with the opening of power rationing in Southwest China, the profit from metal silicon production has decreased, and cost support has gradually strengthened. With the arrival of the dry season, metal silicon will gradually fluctuate and operate.

This week (11.3-11.117), the domestic dimethyl ether market maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market on November 13th was 3650 yuan/ton, and on November 17th it was 3650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, a decrease of 21% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 17th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

This week, the overall stability of the domestic dimethyl ether market was maintained, with mainstream prices in the Henan market around 3650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol was weak, and support for dimethyl ether was weak. The on-site supply has tightened, and some factories have reduced their load operations. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is not high, with a focus on just demand and a weak market mentality, resulting in weak production and sales.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated this week, rising from 2460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2480 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.82%. The cost support for dimethyl ether is weak.

Overall, there are no positive factors supporting the current dimethyl ether market. On the contrary, under the cover of negative factors, it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain a weak consolidation operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has recently rebounded and stopped falling. As of November 14th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7052.00 yuan/ton, an incre

The fluctuation of crude oil market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has sparked demand concerns and eased supply tension. There is still a risk of supply side tension, and OPEC+, an oil producing country, will hold a ministerial meeting on November 26th. The market generally believes that its production reduction policy will continue. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has weakened its impact on oil prices, coupled with poor demand prospects and weak momentum for a significant rebound in oil prices.

Hydrogenated benzene market is weak, and n-butane trend is overall rising

Upstream: Recently, the market for hydrogenated benzene has been weak, and hydrogenated benzene enterprises undergoing initial maintenance have started construction one after another. The overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has increased, and on-site supply is slightly loose. As of the 14th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in Shandong Province is between 7450 to 7500 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall trend of n-butane has been upward, with prices in Shandong ranging from 5300 to 5400 yuan/ton as of November 14th.

Unsaturated resin market remains stable, with high inventory levels

Downstream: Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market has remained stable, with high spot inventory of resin and limited downstream demand, resulting in overall poor trading performance.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the main maleic anhydride factories are currently mainly executing preliminary orders, with tight spot shipments from factories. Factory prices continue to rise, and distributors are following suit. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to rise in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2900.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 22.32% year-on-year. On November 12, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average. The price of calcium carbide in OVA Energy this weekend is 2900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide for Inner Mongolia Zhonglian this weekend is 2900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate is around 1230-1330 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5902.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5868.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 2.66% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late November, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in mid to late November, with consolidation being the main trend.

This week, domestic Shandong propane rose first and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on November 6th was 5648 yuan/ton, and on November 10th it was 5663 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.27%, a decrease of 1.16% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 10th

East China region/ 5350-5700 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5650-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5650 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5550-5700 yuan/ton

This week (11.6-11.10), the Shandong propane market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the inventory in the Shandong propane market was low and goods were moving smoothly. With a sudden drop in temperature, downstream markets actively entered the market, while upstream prices rose. In the second half of the week, the price of propane rose to a high level, and downstream resistance was evident. The increase was recouped, and the price dropped to the level at the beginning of the week.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in November 2023, with propane at $610 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $620 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current price of propane is returning to rationality, downstream demand is stable, and upstream inventory is controllable. It is expected that the price of propane will narrow in the short term.