The price of ortho xylene has increased this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the price of ortho xylene was 7600 yuan/ton, an increase of 100 yuan/ton or 1.33% compared to the price of ortho xylene at 7500 yuan/ton on December 8th last weekend. The price of mixed xylene raw materials has increased, and the cost of ortho xylene has increased; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose, while the market for plasticizers fluctuated and stabilized. Downstream demand rebounded, and the price of ortho xylene rose this week.

Raw material mixed xylene rebounds and rises

According to the analysis system of mixed xylene commodity market in Shengyishe, as of December 21, the price of mixed xylene was 6940 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.29% compared to the price of mixed xylene on December 14, which was 6920 yuan/ton; Compared to the quoted price of 6900 yuan/ton on December 11th, it has increased by 0.58%. In December, the price of naphtha stopped falling and stabilized, while the price of mixed xylene increased. The cost of raw materials for ortho xylene increased, and the upward momentum of ortho xylene increased.

Downstream phthalic anhydride market stops falling and rises

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, as of December 21st, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 7475 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.01% from the price of 7400 yuan/ton on December 14th. This week, the plasticizer market has stabilized strongly, and the demand for phthalic anhydride has rebounded. The price of phthalic anhydride has risen, and the support for demand for ortho benzene has increased.

Future prospects

According to analysts from Business Society, the price of mixed xylene rebounded and increased this week, leading to an increase in the cost of adjacent xylene; The price of phthalic anhydride fluctuates and rises, the market for phthalic anhydride rebounds, and downstream demand for ortho benzene rebounds. In the future, the cost of ortho benzene has increased, demand growth has rebounded, and the ortho benzene industry chain market is favorable. It is expected that the price of ortho benzene will fluctuate slightly in the future.

Price trend

Recently, the domestic PA66 market has been operating weakly. According to data monitoring from Business Society, the domestic benchmark price of PA66 mixture was 20700 yuan/ton on December 18th, with a price increase or decrease of -2.97% compared to the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In mid December, the weakness of PA66 continued, and spot prices remained weak and consolidated. Overall, the recent market situation has seen a slight decrease in spot prices for various brands, a narrow decrease in production line operating rates, and an overall stable industry load of around 63%. The on-site supply of goods is moderate, the inventory position is average, the pricing operation of enterprises is cautious, and the support from suppliers is average. Terminal enterprises still rely on maintaining production as their main source of goods, with on-site stocking centered around essential needs, and weak support from the demand side for spot goods. On the upstream side, the tight supply of domestic hexamethylene diamine has eased, and there are still expectations of supply relaxation on the market, leading to a general stagflation adjustment in prices. Early bearish guidance in the adipic acid market, followed by consolidation after a price drop. At present, the market is mainly volatile, and the support from the cost side for the PA66 market is average. At present, the market supply and demand are not strong, and the overall price of PA66 is weak and stable.

Future Market Forecast

In mid December, the spot price of PA66 showed a weak consolidation. The fluctuation of raw material prices has provided moderate support for the cost of PA66. PA66 enterprise has a stable and stable load, with average inventory positions. The demand side still relies mainly on maintaining production, and it is expected that PA66 may continue to operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyishe, from December 11th to 18th, the average price of cyclohexanone in the domestic market remained at 9325 yuan/ton, with a month on month decrease of 0.40% and a year-on-year increase of 1.36%. The raw material pure benzene oscillates during operation, providing stable cost support. Downstream demand is average and often followed up on demand. Some companies are temporarily not shipping, coupled with good follow-up of chemical fiber orders last week, resulting in a decrease in factory low price quotations and a decrease in market low prices.

On the cost side, raw material pure benzene: The pure benzene market has seen a narrow rise, and crude oil futures have continued to rise in the early stage, providing some psychological support for on exchange transactions. Downstream customers are buying at low prices, and the pace of spot transactions is still acceptable. Negotiations are rising. As of December 18th, the benchmark price of pure benzene for Shengyishe is 6845.50 yuan/ton. In the cost composition of the traditional cyclohexanone process route, pure benzene accounts for 53%. The market trend of pure benzene directly affects the price trend of cyclohexanone, and the short-term cost of cyclohexanone is influenced by positive factors.

On the supply side, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic production capacity of cyclohexanone is about 7.14 million tons, and the current operating load is about 60%, which is at a relatively low level. The main production enterprises have limited product supply due to equipment maintenance. The weekly average operating load of cyclohexanone is 62.86%, which is+0.92% higher than last week. The weekly production is 95300 tons, which is+01400 tons compared to last week.

On the demand side, cyclohexanone units are mainly equipped with downstream production of caprolactam, which is one of the main downstream sources of cyclohexanone. The caprolactam market first fell and then rose, with upstream pure benzene prices rebounding. The cost side stopping the decline has supported downstream confidence. Although the supply of caprolactam has increased, the trading atmosphere in the caprolactam market has improved due to low inventory in the early stage and high inventory levels remaining low. The demand for cyclohexanone is temporarily positive.

In the future market forecast, the raw material pure benzene market is expected to be strong and supported by consolidation, and downstream demand for cyclohexanone is expected to break through. Business Society cyclohexanone analysts predict that the domestic cyclohexanone market may recover and consolidate in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the average price of nitric acid on December 11th this week was 2300 yuan/ton, and on December 8th it was 2250 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.17%.

On December 11th, the price of concentrated nitric acid was weak, with an increase in upstream supply and no significant increase in downstream demand. Transactions were mainly orders, with a focus on market transactions.

During the period of 12.11-12.15, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 0.42%, the downstream aniline price remained stable, the TDI price decreased by 0.6%, and the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.46%. At present, the supply of goods in the market has increased, and the demand in downstream industries is average. Acid prices continue to decline due to weak transactions. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may mainly fluctuate weakly.

At the beginning of the week, information about the delayed arrival of phenol at the port was released, causing traders to push up their offers. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the domestic market was quoted at 7765 yuan/ton on December 7th, and at 7867 yuan/ton on December 13th, an increase of 1.3%.

On the 11th, the inventory of phenol at Jiangyin Port was 13000 tons. The originally planned shipment to Hengyang in the middle of last week was delayed, and the goods were prioritized to be sent to Tianjin and other places. However, there was no replenishment of imported cargo. At that time, the East China market showed a tense situation, and trading quotes continued to rise. After rising for two consecutive days, the upward trend slightly eased on Wednesday.

The upward trend of raw materials has been supported, with pure benzene hitting the bottom and rebounding this week. The negotiated price has been pushed up to 6825 yuan/ton, and last week’s offer was at 6700 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.87%. The upward trend of pure benzene is related to the strengthening of downstream styrene market, and the strong upward support of the market.

The downstream domestic bisphenol A market has been poorly negotiated, fluctuating downward, with a lack of favorable terminal conditions and sufficient spot supply. Traders have increased their willingness to ship according to market trends. The negotiated price in the East China region has reached 9850-9950 yuan/ton, while in other regions, there is a lack of market and actual order negotiations are sparse.

From the perspective of the business society, there is insufficient replenishment of phenol cargo in the short term, and the probability of domestic trade cargo arriving at port on weekends is high. In the near future, it is necessary to focus on the arrival time of imported cargo. The purchasing power on the demand side is average, and it is expected to maintain rigid demand as the main demand. If the imported goods successfully arrive in the market, there may be downward expectations.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from December 4th to 11th, the domestic ethanol price increased from 6787 yuan/ton to 6800 yuan/ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 0.37%, and a year-on-year increase of 0.18%. The weather conditions in some areas have caused transportation difficulties, resulting in an increase in freight costs and a significant increase in prices for enterprise orders. However, the actual shipment situation of the factory is relatively weak, with few new orders, and actual transactions are still mainly based on low-end operations.

In terms of cost, as we enter December, the corn market in the Northeast production area continues to increase. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and the arrival of corn from deep processing enterprises does not decrease. After the enterprise’s inventory is replenished, they continue to purchase at a lower price. The demand for the breeding industry is still sluggish, coupled with the continuous arrival of low-priced imported corn and its substitutes in the port. The stage of strong supply and weak demand pressure in the domestic corn market is highlighted, and corn prices continue to decline weakly under pressure. The cost side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 37.97% operating in East China and 95.13% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 18.65%; In the short term, domestic ethanol production in Northeast China is stable or slightly increasing, and small factories have plans to start production. The operating rate in East China fluctuates at a low level. The operating rate of coal to ethanol remains stable in the short term. The supply side of ethanol is affected by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintain normal production status. There is a possibility of restoring the ethyl acetate factory. Baijiu just needs to be purchased. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, there is a bearish cost situation and significant regional differences in supply and demand. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may experience weak consolidation in the short term.

Recent price trends of hydrochloric acid

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, with the average market price rising from 95.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 112.50 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 18.42%, and a year-on-year decrease of 35.34% over the weekend. On December 10th, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 29.61, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 78.53% from the highest point in the cycle of 137.89 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 64.68% from the lowest point of 17.98 points on September 5th, 2012. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the domestic hydrochloric acid market prices have significantly increased this week, and the inventory of manufacturers is average.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has recently stabilized at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream market price of polyaluminum chloride has slightly increased, with the market price rising from 1760.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 1763.75 yuan/ton over the weekend, an increase of 0.21%, and a year-on-year decrease of 12.85% over the weekend. The downstream ammonium chloride market is consolidating at a high level. The market price is 727.50 yuan/ton, and the weekend price decreased by 30.05% year-on-year.

Future Market Forecast

In mid to late December, the market price of hydrochloric acid may fluctuate and rise mainly. The upstream liquid chlorine market is consolidating at a high level, with good cost support. The downstream ammonium chloride and polyaluminum chloride markets have slightly increased, and downstream purchasing willingness has increased. Analysts from Business Society believe that the recent slight fluctuations and gains in the hydrochloric acid market are the main trend.

From the trend chart of para xylene, it can be seen that the price trend of para xylene has remained stable this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of para xylene was 8300 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 8300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and the same as the same period last year.

The domestic supply of xylene is relatively normal, with a domestic PX operating rate of over 80%. A 750000 ton unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical has restarted, but some units are still undergoing maintenance, and spot supply is normal. This week, the international crude oil price trend has declined, and PX external prices have fallen due to this impact. As of the 7th, the closing price in Asia is 935-937 yuan/ton FOB South Korea and 960-962 US dollars/ton CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX plants in Asia has remained high. Overall, the operating rate of xylene plants in the Asian region is nearly 80%. The PX supply in the Asian region is sufficient, and the domestic xylene market prices are temporarily stable due to the impact of lower crude oil prices.

Recently, the international crude oil price trend has declined. As of the 7th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $69.34 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $74.05 per barrel. The main reason is that the market is increasingly concerned about future energy demand, and the news is bearish for the crude oil market, with oil prices falling for six consecutive trading days. On the other hand, the US Energy Information Agency (EIA) regularly releases inventory data. Especially with the surge in gasoline inventories, this has exacerbated the bearish sentiment towards fuel demand in the market. The crude oil market has declined, and the domestic xylene market prices remain weak.

The domestic PTA spot market is mainly volatile, with an average price of 5694 yuan/ton in the East China market as of the weekend, an increase of 0.33% from the price of 5675 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. From the recent changes in PTA equipment, it can be seen that the PTA equipment has been operating relatively steadily this week, with an industry operating rate of over 80%. The downstream polyester production load is above 87%, and cost support is weakening. The polyester filament market is cautious and cautious, with the consumption of early raw material stocking as the main focus, resulting in a stalemate in transaction focus. The trading atmosphere in the short fiber market is light, with many traders offering discounts on prices, and customers from yarn factories have limited orders and low purchasing willingness. The operating rate of Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving has moderately decreased to around 75%, coupled with low profits from raw fabrics, it is expected that a small amount of raw materials will be purchased at a low price by the end of the month. The unfavorable downstream market is bearish for the xylene market, and the PX market trend is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at Business Society PX, believes that there is not much change in domestic PX supply. The upstream crude oil market is a long short game, and overall, crude oil prices are mainly fluctuating in the range. In the early stages of downstream PTA maintenance equipment, new equipment is being restarted and put into operation. With the decrease in downstream polyester production load, the PTA market is under pressure, and it is expected that the terminal’s sustained replenishment may be difficult to sustain. It is expected that the market price of xylene may slightly decline in the later stage.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, as of November 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic refined hydrogenated naphtha was 7926.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.25% from the beginning of this month at 7906.50 yuan/ton. The market for refined hydrogenated naphtha fluctuated and rose before falling back.

As of November 29th, the mainstream ex factory price of domestically refined straight run naphtha was 7856.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% from 7819.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of this month. The market for locally refined straight run naphtha fluctuated and rose before falling back.

Product: In November, the price of ground refined naphtha first increased and then decreased. Currently, the mainstream price of ground refined hydrogenated naphtha is around 7800-8000 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of straight run naphtha is around 7700-7900 yuan/ton. The gasoline and diesel market has entered the off-season, with terminal demand procurement being the main focus, and there is a lack of substantial improvement in fundamentals. The overall demand for naphtha terminals is weak, with sluggish trading and refineries lowering prices for shipments.

Upstream: In November, the international crude oil price trend declined. As of the end of the month, the settlement price of the US WTI crude oil futures main contract was $76.41 per barrel, and the settlement price of Brent crude oil futures main contract was $81.47 per barrel. The November crude oil price fell by 5.69%. Firstly, the economic data is poor, and the news is bearish for the oil price market. There are still concerns about inflation levels in the United States, and the Federal Reserve has indicated that interest rates may continue to rise in the future. The US dollar is rising, putting pressure on prices of commodities such as crude oil and gold priced in US dollars; The multiple economic data released by the United States have made the market bearish about the future demand outlook, leading to a decrease in crude oil prices. Secondly, the supply tension caused by the situation in the Middle East has been alleviated, as the seasonal decrease in internal demand in the region has led to an increase in its export share; The peak oil season in North America and Europe has ended, and demand has declined, suppressing the crude oil market. Thirdly, the increase in US crude oil inventories exceeded expectations, coupled with market concerns about demand in the Asian region and negative factors, resulting in a decline in crude oil prices and limited support for the domestic naphtha market.

Downstream: The toluene market continued to decline in November, with toluene prices at 6900 yuan/ton on November 1st and 6680 yuan/ton on November 29th, a decrease of 3.19% compared to the beginning of the month. The mixed xylene market continued to decline in November. On November 29th, the price of mixed xylene was 7060 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.68% from 7330 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price trend of para xylene in November declined, with the domestic ex factory price of para xylene at 8300 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 4.60% from the initial price of 8700 yuan/ton.

According to energy analysts from Business Society, the international crude oil price has rebounded, and local refined naphtha is actively pushing up. In addition, a small amount of demand from local refined reforming units is currently being released, and it is expected that the local refined naphtha market will experience a slight increase in the near future.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market price of isobutyraldehyde fluctuated and fell in November. The market price of isobutyraldehyde decreased from 8100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7300.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 9.88%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 17.11% year-on-year. On November 29th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 37.06, a decrease of 0.17 points from yesterday, a decrease of 64.90% from the highest point in the cycle of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 23.04% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2021 to present)

From the supply side perspective, mainstream domestic manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde saw a significant drop in prices in November, and their inventory levels were average.

Upstream support is average, downstream demand weakens

From a cost perspective, the upstream propylene market for isobutyraldehyde rose first and then fell in November. The price of propylene first increased from 7050.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7370.75 yuan/ton on November 8th, an increase of 4.54%, and then dropped to 7105.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 3.60%. In November, the overall price of isobutyraldehyde increased by 0.78%, with a year-on-year decrease of 7.12% at the end of the month. The average upstream cost support has a bearish impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the demand side, the market situation for downstream neopentyl glycol slightly declined in November. The market price of neopentyl glycol has dropped from 10525.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 9725.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decrease of 7.60%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 8.64% year-on-year. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their enthusiasm for purchasing isobutyraldehyde.

Slight fluctuation and decline in the future market

In mid to early December, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience a slight fluctuation and decline. The downstream market for new pentanediol has significantly declined, and downstream manufacturers have weakened their purchasing enthusiasm for isobutyraldehyde. The upstream propylene market has risen first and then fallen, with average cost support. The product trend is declining under the contradiction of supply and demand. Business Society’s isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

The domestic bisphenol A market first suppressed and then rose, mainly due to mid month equipment maintenance and unplanned parking, which tightened the supply of bisphenol A in the market and drove it up. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, on November 1st, the mainstream market price of bisphenol A was quoted at 10062 yuan/ton, and on November 15th, it was quoted at 9450 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the market once again rose to 10137 yuan/ton, with a monthly amplitude of 7.28%.

Region/ Price on November 1st/ Price on November 15th/ November 30th

East China region/ 10100./9550./10150

Shandong region/ 9900./9400./10100

Entering November, the two major downstream epoxy resins and PC of bisphenol A have weakened due to fluctuations, and the high levels of phenol and acetone at the raw material end have rebounded. The market sentiment of bisphenol A has weakened, and some factories and intermediaries have increased their intention to reduce inventory. Low price quotations are frequent, and the bisphenol A market has fallen from 10062 at the beginning of the month to 9450 yuan/ton at the end of the 15th day.

In the second half of the month, accompanied by a decrease in market inventory, domestic equipment malfunctions and some equipment shutdowns for maintenance. Among them, Cangzhou Dahua experienced a malfunction shutdown on November 12, Jiangsu Ruiheng Phase I experienced a malfunction shutdown on November 17, Zhejiang Petrochemical Phase I equipment shutdown for maintenance on November 21, and Changchun Chemical’s 270000 tons/year equipment shutdown in the first half of the month. The supply side is expected to tighten significantly, and in the second half of the month, both raw materials will rise, supported by cost side support, The bisphenol A market in East China has expanded to 10100-10150 yuan/ton. Quotation situation of bisphenol A in the mainstream domestic market:

Market forecast: In terms of supply, the shutdown and maintenance of bisphenol A in December will decrease, and the maintenance equipment in November will stabilize operation in December. Additionally, three new bisphenol A equipment sets are planned to be put into operation. Considering the supporting equipment, there will still be a significant increase in the supply chain in December. On the demand side, there is a lack of significant benefits for downstream epoxy resins and PC terminals. Despite the expectation of new equipment being put into operation, the growth rate of demand is far lower than the supply expectation. From a cost perspective, the short-term fluctuations in the operation of the dual raw materials phenol and acetone are the main factors. Considering the continuous loss of bisphenol A in the early stage, the impact of cost on bisphenol A may be relatively small. Business Society predicts that, considering the many variables in the production of new devices and the difficulty in achieving significant positive demand, the bisphenol A market in East China may show a trend of first rising and then falling.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the prices of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to decline in November. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of industrial grade lithium carbonate was 123400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 22.49% compared to the average price of 159200 yuan/ton on November 1st. On November 30th, the average domestic mixed price of battery grade lithium carbonate was 134000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 21.08% compared to the average price of 169800 yuan/ton on November 1st.

By observing market changes, it can be seen that the supply and demand pattern of lithium carbonate market remained weak in early November, with prices showing a trend of continuous decline. In terms of supply, the production lines of some large factories have recovered from maintenance, with a significant increase in production scheduling and operating rates, and an increase in the supply of lithium carbonate in the market. Combined with the high prices of lithium carbonate in the early stage, many enterprises have accumulated a large amount of lithium carbonate inventory. In order to reduce costs and recover funds, enterprises gradually clear their inventory, leading to a continuous increase in supply. The spot market, on the other hand, is mainly dominated by long order buying and selling, while the volume of individual orders is relatively small, resulting in a continuous decline in prices.

In terms of demand, the purchasing willingness of downstream markets is still not high, mainly based on long-term contracts and customer supply guarantee, and the purchasing willingness for individual orders is relatively low. Although the electric vehicle market is still growing, the growth rate has slowed down, coupled with weak demand growth in the energy storage market, resulting in lower than expected demand for lithium carbonate, further lowering prices.

In late November, the decline in lithium carbonate prices widened. On the one hand, it was affected by the significant decline in futures prices, and on the other hand, the market supply and demand imbalance led to a downward trend in prices. The supply side saw a surge of 84.5% to 16791 tons of lithium carbonate exported from Chile to China in October, leading to a continuous increase in lithium carbonate supply. As the end of the month approaches, the supply side of the market is facing even more difficulties. It is understood that a large salt lake factory has announced a release of 8000 tons of lithium carbonate. The price will be settled based on the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate from November 28th to December 25th, and a certain discount will be given based on the purchase volume, which will continue to put pressure on the price of lithium carbonate.

In terms of demand, downstream energy storage demand remained weak in late November, while positive electrode material companies remained in a wait-and-see attitude. In the downward trend of prices, there is currently no willingness to buy individual orders, and market transactions continue to be lackluster. Although trading companies have significantly lowered the sales price of lithium carbonate, market feedback shows that transactions are still relatively small. In addition, the recent decline in the premium between lithium carbonate spot and 2401 contract futures has made it difficult for some lithium carbonate trading companies to significantly discount sales, and their trading volume is also difficult to improve.

The lithium hydroxide market is operating weakly, with upstream lithium carbonate prices continuing to decline in November and upstream spodumene concentrate prices operating weakly. Cost support for the lithium hydroxide market is weakened, coupled with poor performance on the demand side. Market transactions are mainly long-term contract orders, and the atmosphere for bulk cargo transactions is weak. Downstream demand for high nickel materials is weak, and the enthusiasm for inquiry procurement is not high. The cautious and urgent need to follow up is the main trend. The trading atmosphere in the lithium hydroxide market is flat, The market is sluggish.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate has mainly experienced a narrow decline. In November, the price of lithium iron phosphate fell by 15.34%, with a decrease of 12000 yuan/ton. Currently, downstream restocking is on demand, with poor demand and average stocking willingness. Upstream lithium carbonate experienced a significant decline in November, with limited cost support, sufficient supply, and slow shipment, putting overall market pressure on operation.

In terms of futures, the basis of lithium carbonate spot futures has widened in mid November, and some traders have engaged in basis trading, reducing prices and selling spot inventory, which has to some extent triggered bearish sentiment. Subsequently, lithium carbonate futures prices plummeted multiple times, hitting the limit down twice and continuously breaking new historical lows. On November 30th, the opening price of the LC2401 contract for lithium carbonate futures on the Guangzhou Futures Exchange was 110000 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 111350 yuan/ton and a closing price of 106200 yuan/ton. The daily decline was 5.81%, with a trading volume of 579000 lots and a position of 145034 lots.

According to lithium carbonate analysts from Business Society, the overall inventory of the lithium carbonate industry is still high, and the market circulation is still much higher than the actual downstream demand. The pattern of strong supply and weak demand is maintained, and some smelting enterprises find it difficult to ship, with prices continuously declining. In addition, some traders have engaged in low price selling behavior, which has amplified the bearish sentiment in the market. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will continue to decline under pressure in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in November 2023, the domestic 1 # antimony ingot market stabilized first and then fell, with prices slightly declining. The average market price in East China was 82500 yuan/ton on the 1st and 80500 yuan/ton on the 28th, a decrease of 2.42%.

On November 28, the antimony commodity index was 112.06, a decrease of 0.35 points from yesterday, a decrease of 7.74% from the highest point in the cycle of 121.46 points (2023-15), and an increase of 138.53% from the lowest point of 46.98 points on December 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2012-09-08 present).

K-bar chart of commodity prices, using the concept of price trend K-line, reflects the weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the above chart, it can be seen that the antimony ingot market has recently seen an upward trend before and after the Spring Festival, with a wide decline in prices in March, a stable trend in April and May, a seven week continuous decline in prices after June, an eight week continuous increase at the end of July, and a narrow decline in October and November. The recent trend is relatively stable.

In terms of external trading, the European strategic small metal antimony market declined in November, with a quote of $11150/ton as of the 28th, a decrease of $500/ton compared to the same period last month.

In terms of the industrial chain, the antimony oxide market followed the overall downward trend of the antimony ingot market in November, and the overall performance of overseas markets was poor. The latest export data for November shows that in October 2023, China exported a total of 2733.9 tons of antimony oxide, a decrease of 33.31% compared to the previous month. This also reflects that the overseas antimony oxide market is in the off-season, and the overall market demand is weak. The European antimony ingot market has continued to decline during the month, which has a significant impact on market sentiment. The performance of the antimony oxide market in November was poor, and most domestic enterprises maintain a strong demand for antimony ingots to replenish inventory, In the light of weak market sentiment, it is expected that the antimony oxide market will continue to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak operation in the short term.

In November, the antimony ingot market continued its decline at the end of October, with a decrease of about 2000 yuan/ton within the month. From the perspective of supply and demand, there was not much overall change during the month. The supply of antimony ore remained tight, and smelters still had a reluctance to sell. Currently, the overall supply of antimony ingots in China is still tight, and the inventory in factories is generally low. However, some enterprises may have a need to recover funds by the end of the year. In terms of demand, downstream enterprises maintain a normal replenishment demand for the antimony ingot market while maintaining a basic replenishment demand. Overall, there has been no significant market news in the antimony ingot market recently, and it has remained stable with a weak trend. The overall news is relatively stable, and the market performance is in the off-season. In the future, it is expected to maintain a stable, moderate, and weak trend in the short term, with a focus on the sales plan of year-end smelters in the future.

On November 28th, the non-ferrous index was at 1085 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 29.45% from the highest point in the cycle of 1538 points (2021-10-18), and an increase of 78.75% from the lowest point of 607 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to 2011-12-01 present)

According to the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price trend remained stable in November. As of the end of the month, the market price of ammonium nitrate was 4000 yuan/ton, which is the same as the price of 4000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, with a year-on-year price increase of 1.27%.

In November, the domestic ammonium nitrate market prices remained stable, with stable operation of domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers. Recently, the supply of goods on site has been normal, and the sales situation is average. Downstream demand is normal, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate market is temporarily stable. Recently, the shipping market of ammonium nitrate manufacturers has been normal, and downstream purchases are on demand. Recently, downstream purchases of nitro compound fertilizers have been average, and domestic purchases in the downstream civil explosive industry have been normal. Domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers are operating normally, and the market price of ammonium nitrate is mainly stable. As of now, the mainstream negotiation prices in Shaanxi region are 5200-5300 yuan/ton, Shandong region is 3800-4000 yuan/ton, and Hebei region is 3800-3900 yuan/ton.

The price trend of concentrated nitric acid in China increased in November, with an average price of 2133.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, an increase of 2.40% from the initial price of 2083.33 yuan/ton. Mainstream enterprises in East China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2200 yuan/ton, while northern and central China offer prices ranging from 2100 to 2300 yuan/ton. The market supply is normal, and the recent sales have been good. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand, and on-site transactions are normal. The price of raw material nitric acid has risen, forming a certain positive support for the ammonium nitrate market. The price trend of the ammonium nitrate market is mainly stable.

In November, the domestic liquid ammonia market price slightly increased. As of the end of the month, the price of liquid ammonia was 4023.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.72% from the beginning of the month’s price of 3916.67 yuan/ton. In November, the price of liquid ammonia first increased and then decreased, and overall, the price slightly increased. In early November, due to supply shortages, the northern region was mainly affected by equipment maintenance by manufacturers, coupled with some devices operating at reduced loads. The supply volume was delayed and manufacturers and distributors reported an increase in prices. In the later stage, when the maintenance equipment was restarted, the amount of ammonia released increased, and the price trend of liquid ammonia in the market declined. Since November, the import supply has also increased, which has had an impact on the liquid ammonia market in the region. Prices of large factories in Shandong, Hebei and other places have all been lowered. From the demand side, downstream demand is relatively stable, and the atmosphere of urea speculation is falling, which is bearish for the domestic liquid ammonia market. The trend of the liquid ammonia market is falling. Overall, the liquid ammonia market saw a slight increase in prices in November, but the fluctuation in ammonium nitrate prices was not significant due to this impact.

Recently, there has been an increase in downstream purchase orders, coupled with an increase in the market price of raw material nitric acid. However, the trend of liquid ammonia prices has declined, and the combined influence of bullish and bearish factors has led to a slight increase in the market price of ammonium nitrate in the future, according to analysts from Business Society.

This week, the price of 441 # metallic silicon continued to remain stable. As of November 27th, the average price of metallic silicon in the domestic market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. The price of 441 # metallic silicon has remained stable for half a month, and both supply and demand sides have shown caution in their operations. Southwest silicon factories are mainly pushing up prices, while Northwest is under pressure to ship, with short-term upstream and downstream games being the main focus. In terms of futures, the overall trend is rising first and then falling, with a slight decline throughout the week. SI2401 rose or fell 0.46% throughout the week, closing at 14200 yuan/ton.

On the 27th, the price of 441 # silicon in various regions is as follows:

The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Kunming area is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metallic silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

The Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

In terms of supply:

As of November 23rd, the number of silicon metal furnaces in China has reached 407, with an overall start-up rate of 55.83%, a decrease of 6 furnaces compared to the previous month. The number of silicon metal furnaces continues to decrease, continuing to be less in the south and more in the north. The cost of electricity prices in the southwest has increased, and the profits of silicon plants have been compressed. It is expected that further production reduction will occur next week; A small increase in the opening of furnaces in the northwest partially compensates for the decrease in supply in the southwest, while the overall supply slightly decreases.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 24th, the total social inventory was 372000 tons, an increase of 4000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 35000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week; Kunming delivered 50000 tons, an increase of 10000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming delivered 79000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port had 39000 tons, which remained unchanged compared to the previous week. Tianjin delivery warehouse had 34000 tons, an increase of 5000 tons compared to the previous week; The delivery warehouse in Xinjiang is 0.3, with a decrease of 0.1 thousand tons compared to the previous week.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream quotation for single crystal dense materials with a model of first-class solar energy is 68333.33 yuan/ton. In October, the installed capacity of photovoltaic equipment fell, and it is expected that polycrystalline silicon will continue to remain weak in the short term.

The organic silicon DMC market is experiencing a weak decline, with a market price reference of 14500 yuan/ton. The downstream demand for organic silicon DMC is limited, and the factory’s order volume is average. There is a strong wait-and-see sentiment on site, and some downstream factories have started operating at a reduced rate, resulting in weak demand for metallic silicon.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The operating rate of recycled aluminum alloy remains weak due to difficulties in purchasing scrap aluminum and production losses.

Future Market Forecast

Overall, the willingness of Southwest Silicon Plant to shut down has increased, and the quotation is relatively firm. However, a small number of Northwest manufacturers have increased their opening of furnaces, coupled with the arrival of centralized cancellation of warehouse receipts, resulting in significant supply pressure. Downstream product prices on the demand side have weakened, and there is no expectation of improvement in demand. Metal silicon lacks short-term upward momentum. But with further increases in electricity prices during the dry season, cost support is gradually increasing, and the space for silicon prices to fall is also limited. It is expected that metal silicon will maintain a volatile operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda has been improving this week. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2187.5 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2212.5 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.14% and a year-on-year decrease of 12.64%. On November 23, the baking soda commodity index was 146.68, an increase of 0.66 points from yesterday, a decrease of 37.81% from the highest point in the cycle of 235.84 points (2021-11-10), and an increase of 66.17% from the lowest point of 88.27 points on December 22, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to present)

2、 Market analysis

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of baking soda is strong and the downstream market is purchasing on demand in the near future. Currently, the price of baking soda in China is strong, with a mainstream market quotation of around 2000-2300 yuan/ton. According to the product analysis system of Business Society, the price of soda ash in the upstream of baking soda remains strong. The average market price at the beginning of the week was 2190 yuan/ton, and the average market price over the weekend was 2300 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 5.02% and a decrease of 12.88% compared to the same period last year.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of baking soda has been strong in recent times, and the upstream raw material pure alkali has been strong in recent times. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, food and other aspects of baking soda will mainly require on-demand procurement in the near future. It is expected that the price of baking soda will consolidate and operate in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

Recently, the domestic phenol market has shown a strong upward trend, with a weekly increase of 5.64%. According to the analysis system of the Business Society, the national market quotation on November 13th was at 7857 yuan/ton, and on November 20th the market rose to 8192.50 yuan/ton. In terms of domestic factories, on November 20th, several major factories in North and East China of Sinopec raised their listing prices to 8100 yuan/ton.

The market supply has decreased. On November 13th, the inventory of Jiangyin phenol port decreased to 11000 tons, and there was no replenishment of imported goods during the week. The arrival of domestic trade ships at the port was delayed, resulting in a shortage of imported resources.

There is slight support on the cost side. In terms of crude oil, Saudi Arabia may further postpone additional production cuts until next year, and international oil prices will continue to rise. In the new week, the East China pure benzene market will open low and rise high, with spot negotiation prices ranging from 7800 to 7900 yuan/ton. However, due to the weak opening of downstream styrene, the market’s action on pure benzene is insufficient, and the market is mostly dominated by far month transactions.

The downstream bisphenol A market is fluctuating and rising. In the new week, the bidding price of a certain petrochemical company in East China is rising, with delivery prices for qualified and premium products of 9350 yuan/ton and 9500 yuan/ton. The negotiated price in the East China region has been pushed up to 9600-9700 yuan/ton, and the overall trading volume needs to be improved. We will continue to pay attention to changes in upstream raw materials.

Future forecast: The replenishment situation of phenol shipments. Recently, Changchun Chemical and Guangxi Huayi Phenol Ketone plants have restarted, and the supply pressure is still good. Traders are confident in the short term. However, in the face of high prices, downstream resistance is obvious, and the possibility of terminal factories continuing to chase up prices is unlikely, suppressing the upward space of the market. Business Society estimates that the negotiated price in the East China phenol market is between 8100-8200 yuan/ton

Overview of 441 # Silicon Price Trends

This week, the price of 441 # metal silicon remained stable. As of November 20th, the average price in the domestic metal silicon market was 15180 yuan/ton, which is the same as last week’s price. Overall, there is a differentiation in supply between the north and south. In terms of futures, the overall trend was initially suppressed and then increased, with a slight increase throughout the week and a relatively stable performance. SI2401 rose or fell 1.24% throughout the week, closing at 14265 yuan/ton.

The prices of 441 # silicon in various regions on the 20th are as follows:

The price range of # 441 metal silicon in the Huangpu Port area is 15000-15100 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15050 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Tianjin Port area is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metal silicon in Kunming region is 15200-15300 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15250 yuan/ton; The price range of # 441 metallic silicon in Sichuan region is 14900-15000 yuan/ton, with an average of 14950 yuan/ton; The price range of Shanghai # 441 metal silicon is 15600-15800 yuan/ton, with an average price of 15700 yuan/ton.

Factors Influencing the Price of Silicon Metal

On the supply side:

As of November 16th, there were 413 silicon metal furnaces operating in China, with an overall start-up rate of 56.65%, a decrease of 2 furnaces compared to the previous month. 78 furnaces were opened in Yunnan, 67 furnaces were opened in Sichuan, and 152 furnaces were opened in Xinjiang. Due to the arrival of the dry season in the southwest region, the cost of silicon factories has increased, and the number of furnace shutdowns has increased, resulting in relatively strong quotations from silicon factories; There are still small profits in the northwest region, with an increase in the number of furnaces and sufficient supply of warehouse receipts for shipment. However, downstream purchasing sentiment is not high and prices are weak.

In terms of inventory:

As of November 17th, the total social inventory was 368000 tons, an increase of 7000 tons compared to last week. Among them, Huangpu Port has 32000 tons, an increase of 2000 tons compared to last week; Kunming has 49000 tons, an increase of 3000 tons compared to last week, and the delivery warehouse in Kunming has 79000 tons, which remains unchanged compared to last week; Tianjin Port has 39000 tons, with an increase of 2000 tons compared to the surrounding area; Xinjiang delivery warehouse is 0.4, with a decrease of 10000 tons compared to the previous month.

In terms of demand:

This week, the domestic polycrystalline silicon market further declined, and the mainstream range for single crystal dense materials with a model of primary solar grade is currently maintained at 6.5-7.5 yuan/ton. Polycrystalline silicon remains the main demand force for metallic silicon, with 99 silicon powder signing orders one after another, but there is a strong pressure on prices.

The organic silicon DMC market is operating steadily, with a market price reference of 14540 yuan/ton. The overall market is in a period of consolidation and recovery, and the downstream demand for organic silicon DMC remains average. The operating load of individual factories has decreased, and the demand for metallic silicon is also average.

The price of aluminum alloy has fluctuated and adjusted, with a slight correction in the price of aluminum alloy ADC12. The current quotation is 19400 yuan/ton. The factory has just released orders, and industrial silicon procurement has been actively inquiring and placing orders recently.

Future Market Forecast

Fundamentally, the metal silicon market is still in a situation of oversupply, with production gradually decreasing in the south. However, the increase in production by manufacturers in the northwest has resulted in a lower than expected decrease in the supply of metal silicon. This week, social inventory has once again accumulated, putting pressure on the supply side of metal silicon. From a cost perspective, with the opening of power rationing in Southwest China, the profit from metal silicon production has decreased, and cost support has gradually strengthened. With the arrival of the dry season, metal silicon will gradually fluctuate and operate.

This week (11.3-11.117), the domestic dimethyl ether market maintained stable operation. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of dimethyl ether in the Henan market on November 13th was 3650 yuan/ton, and on November 17th it was 3650 yuan/ton. There was no increase or decrease during the cycle, a decrease of 21% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 17th, the mainstream prices of dimethyl ether in various regions of China are as follows:

Region/ Mainstream prices

Shandong region/ 3850 yuan/ton

Hebei region/ 3800 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 3650 yuan/ton

This week, the overall stability of the domestic dimethyl ether market was maintained, with mainstream prices in the Henan market around 3650 yuan/ton. This week, the price of raw material methanol was weak, and support for dimethyl ether was weak. The on-site supply has tightened, and some factories have reduced their load operations. However, the enthusiasm for downstream entry into the market is not high, with a focus on just demand and a weak market mentality, resulting in weak production and sales.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated this week, rising from 2460 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 2480 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.82%. The cost support for dimethyl ether is weak.

Overall, there are no positive factors supporting the current dimethyl ether market. On the contrary, under the cover of negative factors, it is expected that the dimethyl ether market will maintain a weak consolidation operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic maleic anhydride market has recently rebounded and stopped falling. As of November 14th, the average market price of n-butane oxidation maleic anhydride remained at 7052.00 yuan/ton, an incre

The fluctuation of crude oil market has limited support for the domestic maleic anhydride market

The international crude oil market has been fluctuating recently. The hawkish stance of the Federal Reserve has sparked demand concerns and eased supply tension. There is still a risk of supply side tension, and OPEC+, an oil producing country, will hold a ministerial meeting on November 26th. The market generally believes that its production reduction policy will continue. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East has weakened its impact on oil prices, coupled with poor demand prospects and weak momentum for a significant rebound in oil prices.

Hydrogenated benzene market is weak, and n-butane trend is overall rising

Upstream: Recently, the market for hydrogenated benzene has been weak, and hydrogenated benzene enterprises undergoing initial maintenance have started construction one after another. The overall operating rate of hydrogenated benzene has increased, and on-site supply is slightly loose. As of the 14th, the mainstream quotation range in the hydrogenation benzene market in Shandong Province is between 7450 to 7500 yuan/ton. Recently, the overall trend of n-butane has been upward, with prices in Shandong ranging from 5300 to 5400 yuan/ton as of November 14th.

Unsaturated resin market remains stable, with high inventory levels

Downstream: Recently, the downstream unsaturated resin market has remained stable, with high spot inventory of resin and limited downstream demand, resulting in overall poor trading performance.

Business Society’s maleic anhydride product analysts believe that the main maleic anhydride factories are currently mainly executing preliminary orders, with tight spot shipments from factories. Factory prices continue to rise, and distributors are following suit. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market will continue to rise in the short term.

Recent price trends of calcium carbide

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in northwest China was 2900.00 yuan/ton, and the weekend price fell by 22.32% year-on-year. On November 12, the calcium carbide commodity index was 75.98, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 64.20% from the cycle’s highest point of 212.23 points (2021-10-26), and an increase of 36.93% from the lowest point of 55.49 points on March 14, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

Upstream support is average, while downstream demand weakens

From the supply side perspective, the ex factory prices of calcium carbide in the northwest region have temporarily stabilized this week, and the manufacturer’s inventory is average. The price of calcium carbide in OVA Energy this weekend is 2900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week; The price of calcium carbide for Inner Mongolia Zhonglian this weekend is 2900 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared to the beginning of the week.

The upstream blue charcoal market has stabilized at a low level, while the downstream PVC market prices have slightly declined. This weekend, the price of Shenmulan charcoal intermediate is around 1230-1330 yuan/ton, with low price consolidation and average cost support. The PVC market price slightly decreased this week, dropping from 5902.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 5868.00 yuan/ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.58%. Weekend prices fell by 2.66% year-on-year. The PVC market price has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing calcium carbide has weakened. The downstream PVC market has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide.

Calcium carbide may fluctuate and decline in the aftermarket

In mid to late November, the calcium carbide market may experience a narrow range of fluctuations and declines. The downstream PVC market has slightly declined, downstream demand has weakened, and the price of raw material blue charcoal has stabilized at a low level, with average cost support. In the future, it is expected that the price of calcium carbide in the northwest region will fluctuate and fall in a narrow range in mid to late November, with consolidation being the main trend.

This week, domestic Shandong propane rose first and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of propane in Shandong on November 6th was 5648 yuan/ton, and on November 10th it was 5663 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.27%, a decrease of 1.16% compared to the same period last year.

As of November 10th, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region/ November 10th

East China region/ 5350-5700 yuan/ton

North China region/ 5650-5750 yuan/ton

Shandong region/ 5550-5650 yuan/ton

Northeast region/ 5550-5700 yuan/ton

This week (11.6-11.10), the Shandong propane market rose first and then fell. At the beginning of the week, the inventory in the Shandong propane market was low and goods were moving smoothly. With a sudden drop in temperature, downstream markets actively entered the market, while upstream prices rose. In the second half of the week, the price of propane rose to a high level, and downstream resistance was evident. The increase was recouped, and the price dropped to the level at the beginning of the week.

Saudi Aramco’s CP was introduced in November 2023, with propane at $610 per ton, an increase of $10 per ton compared to the previous month; Butane is $620 per ton, an increase of $5 per ton compared to the previous month.

Overall, the current price of propane is returning to rationality, downstream demand is stable, and upstream inventory is controllable. It is expected that the price of propane will narrow in the short term.

The domestic MIBK market is mainly down. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the market reported 16400 yuan/ton on November 1st and 14933 yuan/ton on November 8th, a decrease of 8.94%

Recently, the MIBK market has been mainly declining, with low end prices in East China reaching 14600-14800 yuan/ton. Downstream restocking intentions are not high, and with the off-season approaching, traders have a more bearish mentality, making it difficult to stop the market decline.

The cost side is bearish, with crude oil falling more or less in November, dragging down the weak and downward trend of the downstream acetone market. There is sufficient import and domestic supply, and the market’s spot circulation has increased. In addition, at the beginning of the month, downstream large factories mainly consumed contract volume, and there was less restocking in the market. As of the 8th, the acetone market has fallen by 6.61%, with the East China region offering 6600 yuan/ton.

From a terminal perspective, the demand in other industries is mostly small orders, with the largest downstream antioxidant industry experiencing a decline in operating rates. Overall, there is less demand for raw materials, and the market is mainly bearish. Large enterprises enter the market with caution and operate under targeted contracts, resulting in a lack of positive support for the industrial chain.

Concerns about the demand outlook have intensified, with overnight crude oil continuing to decline broadly, and bearish factors in the industrial chain increasing. Moreover, domestic demand is difficult to be optimistic. After a continuous decline in the market, the business community expects that there is still a small downward space in the short-term MIBK market, but it will enter a weak adjustment state later. Focus on the support from the raw material end.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Business Society, the price of soda ash continued to decline in November. The average market price of light soda ash at the beginning of the month was 2460 yuan/ton. On November 8th, the average market price was around 2080 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 15.45%. On November 7th, the commodity index of light soda ash was 109.74, a decrease of 6.67 points from yesterday, a decrease of 41.97% from the highest point in the cycle of 189.10 points (2021-11-07), and an increase of 73.78% from the lowest point of 63.15 points on November 18th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

2、 Market analysis

In terms of the market, according to monitoring data from Business Society, the overall price of soda ash has declined this month. The mainstream price in the domestic market is around 1900-2400 yuan/ton, and the enterprise equipment is relatively stable with no significant fluctuations at the moment. Enterprise shipments are average and there is an expectation of inventory accumulation.

Domestic mainstream market quotation situation:

In terms of supply: The market trading atmosphere is average, with data showing that the overall operating rate of soda ash is currently around 87%. Data shows that the inventory of soda ash manufacturers is currently around 510000 tons, an increase of 13.07%. The inventory of soda ash manufacturers has increased, but the alkali plants are still in a state of accumulation. In addition, data shows that in October, with the completion of new production and centralized maintenance, the monthly production of soda ash exceeded 3 million tons, setting a new monthly high in recent years. This shows that the production of soda ash is still at a high level.

In terms of demand: According to the commodity analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of glass is declining. At the beginning of the month, the average price of glass was 23.09 yuan/square meter. On November 8th, the average price was 22.68 yuan/square meter, a decrease of 1.78%. The performance of glass is average. Although the raw material inventory of downstream glass factories is not high, the market sentiment is relatively cautious due to the expectation of upstream inventory accumulation, and there has been no large-scale replenishment behavior. Instead, procurement is mainly based on demand.

Analysts from the Business Society believe that according to the Business Society’s product analysis system, the price of soda ash is weak and operating. Individual enterprises undergo maintenance, but the overall supply fluctuation is not significant. The overall trading atmosphere is average, and the downstream of soda ash is replenished according to demand. Market participants have a strong bearish attitude towards the future market, and the supply-demand game is expected to be dominated by weak consolidation of soda ash prices in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

According to data monitored by the Business Society, as of November 3rd, the average price of high-quality power grade lithium iron phosphate was 63600 yuan/ton. This week, the price of lithium iron phosphate showed a slight decline, with a decrease of 0.93% compared to the same period last week. In October, the overall trend of lithium iron phosphate was weak and decreased by 10.17%, with a price drop of 7200 yuan/ton. Since November, it has still maintained a weak trend.

This week, the stable operation of lithium iron phosphate is the main focus. The price for the same period last week was 63600 yuan/ton, and the current mainstream price is around 63000 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable and weak, with downstream restocking on demand and weak demand. Upstream lithium carbonate is stable and weak, and the cost support for lithium iron phosphate is not strong. There is still overcapacity, and the overall market is operating under pressure.

In terms of supply and demand: It is predicted that there will be a surplus of global lithium iron phosphate production capacity in 2025, approximately exceeding 3 million per ton. However, the lithium battery industry is still hot, and there are still multiple enterprises building new production lines and production lines.

Cost side: Upstream lithium carbonate is weak and declining, with insufficient cost support for lithium iron phosphate. In October, the price of lithium carbonate continued to be low, but after the National Day holiday, the trend was flat and prices continued to decline. In November, lithium carbonate remained weak and moved forward under pressure, with lithium iron phosphate passively following the decline.

In the first half of 2023, the cumulative production of power batteries in China is about 194GWh, while the installed capacity is only 103.9GWh, which is relatively surplus. It is speculated that the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate in China will reach 5.75 million tons in 2025, with a demand of about 2.67 million tons and a production capacity of over 3 million tons. Based on the current situation, the production capacity of lithium iron phosphate is oversupplied, and the positive electrode market will maintain this surplus trend in the short term.

Analysts from Business Society’s Lithium Iron Phosphate believe that lithium iron phosphate will maintain a weak operation in the short term. Under the dual pressure of oversupply and weak demand support, lithium iron phosphate will move forward under pressure. The downturn in power batteries is obvious, and the recovery of industry demand is slow and less than expected. Upstream raw materials continue to decline, and there is a lack of support on the cost side. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere among enterprises, and bearish sentiment still exists,

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, from October 30th to November 3rd, the domestic ethanol price dropped from 6895 yuan/ton to 6882 yuan/ton, with a weekly price drop of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 3.23%, and a year-on-year increase of 1.96%. There is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises across regions. However, downstream procurement is mainly in demand, inventory accumulation is severe, and the ethanol market is weak and organized, exacerbating the bearish sentiment in the market.

In terms of cost, after the National Day holiday, the market volume of corn in production areas has gradually increased, and the domestic corn market has seamlessly connected new and old markets. Downstream trading entities have a strong wait-and-see attitude, and manufacturers have gradually lowered the purchase price of corn after completing the acquisition task. The overall domestic corn market has entered a stage of strong supply and weak demand, and the overall price of corn market has come under pressure and fully declined. There are temporary bearish factors on the cost side of ethanol.

On the supply side, there is a significant difference in the operating rates of production enterprises in different regions, with 33.51% operating in East China and 87.28% operating in Northeast China; The operating rate in South China and Southwest China is 13.40%. A small number of enterprises have low inventory, while most enterprises have relatively high inventory. Shuntong Short Stop is about to resume. Hongzhan Huanan is recovering, and there is a possibility of Liaoyuan Jufeng starting up. The supply side of ethanol is influenced by bearish factors.

On the demand side, most ethyl acetate factories maintained normal production status in November. Other chemical products require procurement. The demand for Baijiu is average. The short-term demand for ethanol is mixed.

In the future market forecast, the cost is bearish and the supply and demand are weak. Ethanol analysts from Business Society predict that the domestic ethanol market may continue to be weak in the short term.

Commodity Market: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the mainstream market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China fell in October. On the first day, the market reported around 13710 yuan/ton, and on the 30th, it reported around 13540 yuan/ton, with a monthly decrease of 1.24%. This month, the market for raw materials acrylonitrile and acrylic acid has fallen, and the cost of polyacrylamide has decreased. However, enterprises in the main production areas are operating normally, and the market has ample spot supply. Downstream demand has not increased, and the current mainstream market for polyacrylamide is still weak and organized.

Raw material acrylonitrile: In October, the acrylonitrile market experienced a high level in the early stage and a slight decline in the later stage. As of October 30th, the bulk water price in the acrylonitrile market was 9625 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.04% from the 9825 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The price of raw material propylene fluctuates and falls, while the cost support for acrylonitrile weakens; One of the main downstream industries, ABS, has experienced a significant decline in production, and demand has weakened in the face of acrylonitrile support; In October, the start of acrylonitrile production slightly decreased. In the early stage of October, acrylonitrile prices were strong due to low inventory and cost support, but in the later stage, prices slightly decreased at the end of the month as demand weakened.

Raw material acrylic acid: The acrylic acid market steadily declined in October. After the Double Festival, the market price of raw material propylene has decreased, cost support has weakened, industry capacity utilization has increased, and supply of goods is sufficient. However, downstream demand is poor, and the inquiry and procurement atmosphere is not high. Holders are offering discounts to ship, and the focus of negotiations in the acrylic acid market has weakened. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene market has been boosted by news, resulting in increased cost pressure. The supply side’s operating load has decreased compared to the previous period, and the demand side support is weak. Holders’ shipments are under pressure, and the acrylic acid market has been sorted out through game theory. In the second half of the month, the raw material propylene price has weakened, and cost support has once again shown weakness. Some units have shut down, but the demand side follow-up is still insufficient. Downstream procurement is mostly in demand, and acrylic acid prices have fallen.

Liquefied natural gas for production. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the civilian liquefied gas market in Shandong experienced a surge in October. The price of raw gas has skyrocketed, supported by costs and the strong price of Shanghai gas. As the northern heating season approaches, there is strong bullish sentiment towards liquefied natural gas, and it is expected that in the short term, the price of liquefied natural gas will be higher than that of other countries.

Future forecast: In October, the overall focus of raw material cost prices will shift downwards, while the overall fuel market will rise. The cost of polyacrylamide will fluctuate. On the supply side, enterprises in the main production area have normal production and sufficient market supply; On the demand side, downstream procurement and supply remain flat, and market transactions are stable. The actual transaction changes have not yet been significantly followed up. It is expected to continue to focus on consolidation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, in October 2023, the domestic lead ingot market was weak and volatile, with an average price of 16500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 16350 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a monthly decrease of 0.91%.

On October 30th, the lead commodity index was 99.48, an increase of 0.22 points from yesterday, a decrease of 25.77% from the cycle’s highest point of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and an increase of 33.30% from the lowest point of 74.63 points on March 19th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present).

On October 30th, the base metal index was 1192 points, an increase of 12 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 26.24% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 85.67% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24th, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. After the decline in lead prices in January 2023, the trend in the first half of the year was somewhat volatile, with a significant increase starting from July. Judging from the weekly trend, there are more losses and less gains.

In October 2023, the lead ingot market continued to decline in the first half of the month, while the trend in the second half was volatile. The futures market performed poorly after the holiday, with lead inventory rising to over 90000 tons, reaching a new high since June 2021. The spot market supply increased after the holiday, and the market mentality was weak. Under high inventory pressure, the lead ingot market was under pressure and downward trend. After entering the second half of the month, the market saw a slight rebound driven by the positive macro outlook, but was once again under pressure and downward.

From the perspective of supply and demand, some enterprises in the main production areas have maintenance plans after the holiday, while most of the enterprises that underwent preliminary maintenance have recently resumed normal production. The overall operating rate of primary lead has slightly increased compared to last month, and it is expected that the production will slightly increase within the month, indicating sufficient market supply. In terms of demand, as the weather turns colder, the traditional seasonal peak season in China has basically come to an end. However, this year’s overall peak season performance is average, and the overall performance is not strong during the peak season. Due to poor sales performance during the peak season, the inventory of battery companies in the factory is still high, and companies are mainly actively destocking. Overall, the lead ingot market is gradually entering the off-season, and there may be room for a downward trend in lead prices under high inventory pressure.

Related data:

According to the statistics of the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers, in September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached 2.85 million and 2.858 million units, respectively, with an average increase of 10.7% month on month and 6.6% and 9.5% year-on-year, respectively. Both production and sales reached historical highs during the same period. From January to September 2023, China’s automobile production and sales reached a total of 21.075 million and 21.069 million units, with year-on-year growth of 7.3% and 8.2%, respectively.

According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, China’s lead production in September 2023 reached 687000 tons, a year-on-year increase of 13%. From January to September 2023, China’s lead production reached 5.761 million tons, a year-on-year increase of 13.5%.

The latest report released by the World Bureau of Metals Statistics (WBMS) shows that in August 2023, global refined lead production was 1.1787 million tons, consumption was 1.1849 million tons, and supply shortage was 6100 tons. From January to August 2023, the global refined lead production was 9.7148 million tons, with a consumption of 9.7386 million tons and a supply shortage of 23800 tons. In August 2023, the global lead ore production was 354400 tons. From January to August 2023, the global lead ore production was 3.2548 million tons

In October, the dichloromethane market initially fluctuated and consolidated, followed by a significant decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 30th, the price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2667 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.79% from 2990 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and it surged to 3030 yuan/ton within the month. In the early stage, stimulated by the parking and maintenance of a certain factory, prices significantly increased. In the later stage, on the one hand, the support for raw materials weakened, and on the other hand, the supply and demand pressure further increased, leading to a significant decline in the market for dichloromethane.

In October, the overall start of the methane chloride plant slightly decreased, and as of late October, the start of methane chloride production in China was around 7.2%.

Weak cost support for dichloromethane in October

In October, the price of raw material methanol fluctuated and decreased, while the price of liquid chlorine slightly decreased, and the cost support for dichloromethane weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of October 30th, the spot price of methanol was 2446 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.28% from 2478 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month; At the end of October, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region was 300 yuan/ton, which was lower than the price of 400 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The cost support for dichloromethane was weak in the early stage.

Merchants have a low willingness to stock up and mostly purchase according to demand. Downstream terminals only require immediate support, and some methane chloride enterprises have slightly increased their inventory. The supply and demand side is relatively weak compared to the previous period.

Future Market Forecast: According to the methane chloride data analyst from the Business Society, the high price of dichloromethane raw materials has slightly declined, with weak cost support and a backlog of supply side enterprises that just need to support the demand side. Overall, it is expected that the dichloromethane market will fluctuate and consolidate in the future.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride in October declined. As of the end of the month, the quoted price of ortho phthalic anhydride was 8012.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of 8.03% compared to the initial price of 8712.5 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 19.67%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and sufficient supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable. Currently, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China remains at over 60%, and the supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively sufficient. In addition, the production of naphthalene phthalic anhydride goods is normal, and the price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride has dropped, which has correspondingly impacted the neighboring phthalic anhydride market. In October, downstream procurement was not active, and some phthalic anhydride factories continuously lowered their factory prices, causing a significant decline in the phthalic anhydride market.

Cost side: Significant decline in ortho benzene, insufficient cost support

In October, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene continued to decline. As of the end of the month, the ortho benzene price was 8200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.87% compared to the beginning of the month price of 8200 yuan/ton. The ortho benzene supply was normal, and the operation of on-site devices was stable. In October, the crude oil price trend declined, and the mixed xylene price correspondingly decreased, resulting in a decrease in raw material prices. As a result, the domestic ortho benzene price trend significantly declined, and the decline in ortho benzene market brought a negative impact on the phthalic anhydride market, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

In October, the downstream DOP market price slightly decreased, with a price of 11333.33 yuan/ton as of the end of the month, a decrease of 2.16% compared to the price of 11583.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers are operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP has dropped to 11200-11400 yuan/ton. The plasticizer market is not good, which is unfavorable for the phthalic anhydride market, The market price of phthalic anhydride has declined.

Looking at the future market, it is expected that the crude oil price range has fluctuated recently, and the price trend of ortho xylene has declined. In addition, the downstream plasticizer market is not good, and the purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high. As a result, it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will decrease slightly.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this month was 11800 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the price of activated carbon was 11933 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.13%.

The quotation of domestic activated carbon manufacturers has slightly increased, with the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China ranging from 9500 to 12500 yuan/ton. Market transactions have rebounded, with orders being the main source of goods. There is an urgent need for positive news to boost the market, with a focus on downstream market transactions.

Activated carbon has a rich source of raw materials, including coal, sawdust, fruit shells, straw, etc. Through a series of processes, activated carbon suitable for water treatment is prepared. At the same time, activated carbon manufacturers are constantly improving the performance of activated carbon, increasing its working capacity, and effectively adsorbing and purifying wastewater.

Prediction: There are insufficient positive factors for activated carbon and insufficient driving force for price increase. It is expected that the price of activated carbon will mainly fluctuate in a narrow range in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the market trend of 1 # tin ingot in East China this week (10.13-10.20) was fluctuating. On October 13th, the average market price was 213810 yuan/ton, and on October 20th, the average market price was 217660 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 1.8%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-bar represents the range of fluctuations. From the monthly K-bar chart, it can be seen that after November 2022, tin prices have risen continuously for three months due to macroeconomic factors. Since February 2023, the price has dropped by 11.35% per month, and the trend of tin prices has fluctuated narrowly in the past three months. From the weekly K-bar chart, it can be seen that the recent trend of the tin ingot market has been narrow and volatile.

In terms of the futures market, the main trend in this cycle was the rise and then fall of Shanghai Tin, which was volatile. On Friday, the stock market had low sentiment and weak risk sentiment, with non-ferrous metals generally under pressure and declining, while Shanghai Tin followed suit. From the perspective of supply and demand, there is still a tight supply at the mining end, and the recent changes in smelter production have been limited, with little change in supply compared to the previous period. In terms of demand, the downstream market concentrated on buying and restocking before the holiday in September. Recently, it is still digesting inventory, and the intention to restock is low. Recently, the spot market has slightly increased with the tin market, once again suppressing downstream purchasing intentions. However, from the perspective of downstream terminal consumption, there has not been a significant improvement, and market expectations for the future are weak. With the increase in domestic import sources, domestic tin ingot inventory continues to accumulate, which is negative for the market. Recently, tin prices have fluctuated and declined. In the future, it is expected that the tin market will mainly operate weakly in the short term.

On October 22, the base metal index stood at 1194 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 26.11% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and up 85.98% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 6 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that rose month on month in the 42nd week of 2023 (10.16-10.20) commodity price rise and fall list, with cobalt (4.25%), gold (2.21%), and lead (1.11%) among the top 3 commodities that rose. There are a total of 11 products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.80%), praseodymium neodymium alloy (-1.53%), and zinc (-1.49%) ranking among the top three products. This week’s average increase or decrease was -0.07%.

According to the monitoring of the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the average price of nitric acid on October 16th this week was 2200 yuan/ton, and on October 20th it was 2150 yuan/ton, a price drop of 2.27%.

On October 16th, the center of gravity of concentrated nitric acid quotation continued to shift downwards, and the factory’s shipment pressure was obvious. The acid factory’s equipment was operating normally, and the market supply was stable. There was an urgent need to boost prices and demand was not good.

During the period of 10.16-10.20, the upstream liquid ammonia price increased by 6.54%, the downstream aniline price increased by 2.22%, the TDI price decreased by 0.53%, and the potassium nitrate price decreased by 0.46%. At present, the main downstream aniline factories are experiencing weak acid recovery, and the demand for pesticides, pickling and other industries is not good. Nitric acid analysts from Business Society predict that the price of nitric acid may be mainly fluctuating and weak.

Price trend

In the first half of October, the domestic POM market fluctuated and fell, with many spot prices dropping. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of October 15th, the mixed price of domestic POM was 14850 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.33% compared to the price level at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

In terms of raw materials:

According to the analysis system chart of the commodity market of the Business Society, the formaldehyde market in Shandong region has been organizing and operating recently. In the past two months, the formaldehyde market has mainly fluctuated slightly, and the market continues to fluctuate in a narrow range after the holiday. The price of raw material methanol has shown a slight downward trend, with poor cost support. Downstream procurement remains in demand, while the formaldehyde market has light trading volume, providing general support for POM.

On the supply side:

In the first half of October, multiple domestic POM enterprises resumed work or increased their load, and the overall operating rate increased. At the end of last month, the industry load was about 69%, and after half a month of climb, the overall operating rate is currently approaching 80% and entering a high level. In terms of source of goods, most enterprises’ warehouses undertake low levels in the early stage, and their inventory positions are still acceptable. However, due to the impact of early profit market competition, it has dragged down the profit space of merchants and aggregation factories. The supply side has loosened its support for POM spot goods.

In terms of demand:

In the early stage, the construction level of domestic POM downstream enterprises was not high, but there was still a shortage of goods to stimulate. But after the holiday, the company returned to work slowly and mainly digested the pre stocking inventory. On market trading is weak, making it difficult to release POM consumption. In addition, many business owners have bearish sentiment, making follow-up operations more cautious. Overall, the demand side has poor support for POM spot prices.

Future Market Forecast

In the first half of October, the POM market fluctuated and fell. The operating rate of domestic polymerization plants has increased, the supply of goods on site has increased, and suppliers have loosened their support for spot goods. On the demand side, terminal enterprises operate at a low level and digest inventory. Be cautious in purchasing operations and resist high priced sources. There is a lack of trading on the market, and competition among traders is intensifying. Overall, in the first half of October, it is difficult to find both supply and demand side benefits, and in the short term, there are expectations of supply easing in the industry. Therefore, it is expected that the POM market may continue to experience a weak downward trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic market price of isobutyraldehyde slightly decreased this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market dropped from 9333.33 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8966.67 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 3.93%, and the weekend price increased by 43.09% year-on-year. On October 15th, the isobutyraldehyde commodity index was 45.52, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 56.89% from the cycle’s highest point of 105.58 points (2021-09-16), and an increase of 51.13% from the lowest point of 30.12 points on October 7th, 2022. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2021 to present)

2、 Market analysis

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream manufacturers of isobutyraldehyde have slightly decreased this week, resulting in low inventory.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 7200.75 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 7038.25 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 2.26%, and a year-on-year decrease of 7.64% over the weekend. The upstream raw material market prices have slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a negative impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde.

From the perspective of the downstream industry chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, dropping from 10475.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 10400.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.72%, and the weekend price has increased by 2.97% year-on-year. The market situation of neopentyl glycol has slightly declined, and downstream demand has weakened, which has a negative impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future prospects

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in late October may be mainly fluctuating and declining. The upstream propylene market has slightly declined, with insufficient cost support. The downstream neopentyl glycol market has slightly declined, and downstream procurement enthusiasm has weakened. Business Society isobutyraldehyde analysts believe that in the short term, the isobutyraldehyde market may experience slight fluctuations and declines due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average price of domestic ammonium sulfate market was 1130 yuan/ton on October 7th, and 1126 yuan/ton on October 13th. This week, the domestic ammonium sulfate market price fell by 0.29%.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic ammonium sulfate market price has slightly decreased this week. The international market has fallen, while the domestic urea price has fallen, which has negatively impacted the ammonium sulfate market. Downstream and dealers are mainly wait-and-see, and their enthusiasm for purchasing goods has weakened. Downstream compound fertilizer enterprises have reduced operating rates and reduced demand for ammonium sulfate procurement. As of October 13th, the mainstream market quotation for coking grade ammonium sulfate in Hebei Province is around 1070 yuan/ton. The mainstream factory quotation for domestic ammonium sulfate in Shandong is around 1130-1170 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

According to ammonium sulfate analysts from Business Society, the recent slight adjustment in the price of ammonium sulfate has resulted in low purchasing enthusiasm from downstream and distributors. At present, there is no positive news in the market, and it is expected that the price of ammonium sulfate will be weak in the short term, with consolidation and operation being the main focus.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of the Business Society, the market price of isooctanol in Shandong fell first and then rose in September. The price of isooctanol first decreased from 12960.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11640.00 yuan/ton on September 25th, a decrease of 10.19%. Later, it rose to 12020.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 3.26%, and the price at the end of the month increased by 35.56% year-on-year. Overall, octanol prices fluctuated and fell by 7.25% in September.

On September 27th, the isooctanol commodity index was 86.03, an increase of 0.44 points compared to yesterday, a decrease of 37.43% from the cycle’s highest point of 137.50 points (2021-08-08), and an increase of 144.75% from the lowest point of 35.15 points on February 1st, 2016. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to the present)

From the supply side perspective, the mainstream market prices of isooctanol in Shandong have significantly decreased this month, with average inventory levels.

Cost side: Propylene market fluctuates and rises

In September, the factory price of propylene fluctuated and increased, rising from 7113.25 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7285.75 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.43%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 4.27% year-on-year. The upstream market has slightly increased, with increased cost support, which has a positive impact on the price of isooctanol.

On the demand side: DOP market falls first and then rises

In September, the DOP market price first fell and then rose. The price of DOP first decreased from 12009.17 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11350.00 yuan/ton on September 20th, a decrease of 549%, and then rose to 11583.33 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 2.06%. The price at the end of the month increased by 16.07% year-on-year. Overall, the DOP market fell by 3.55% in September. The downstream market has slightly declined, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol has weakened.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early October, the domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly and rise, with consolidation being the main trend. The upstream propylene price has slightly increased, with good cost support. The downstream DOP market has an upward trend at the end of the month, and downstream manufacturers have increased their enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol. Business Society Isooctanol analysts believe that in the short term, under the influence of various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials, the domestic isooctanol market may experience slight fluctuations and gains.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly increased in September. The average price of mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China increased from 12975.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 13200.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 1.73%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 25.00% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in September, with the price rising from 7220 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8579.80 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 18.83%. The price at the end of the month increased by 1.66% year-on-year. The upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the spandex market price slightly increased in September. The price of spandex increased from 34000.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 34250.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.74%, and the price at the end of the month decreased by 2.14% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early October, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the domestic market price trend of ortho phthalic anhydride has been fluctuating. As of the weekend, the quotation for ortho phthalic anhydride was 8787.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.14% from the beginning of the week’s price of 8775 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 14.68%.

Supply side: Stable operation of the device and normal supply of goods

The operation of domestic phthalic anhydride plants is stable, and the current operating rate of phthalic anhydride in China is over 60%. The supply of phthalic anhydride goods is relatively normal, and recent downstream procurement is still acceptable. The transaction situation of phthalic anhydride is normal, and the market situation of phthalic anhydride has slightly increased.

Cost side: There is still support for the rising costs in the ortho benzene market

This week, the domestic price trend of ortho benzene has increased. As of the 22nd, the price of ortho benzene was 9200 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.22% compared to the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The supply of ortho benzene is normal, and the operation of on-site devices is stable, but port inventory has slightly decreased. In addition, the external market price of ortho benzene has risen, which has affected the price trend of ortho benzene in China. The rising ortho benzene market has brought some cost support to the phthalic anhydride market, and the phthalic anhydride market price has slightly increased.

Demand side: DOP market mainly focuses on on-demand procurement

The downstream DOP market price trend has declined. As of the weekend, the price was 11459 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.93% compared to the price of 11566 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. Domestic DOP enterprises have maintained their operations, and domestic DOP supply is normal. However, plasticizer enterprises have lost profits, plasticizer manufacturers have started operating at low loads, and plasticizer supply is still tight. Downstream demand is weak, and the mainstream price of DOP is between 11400 and 11500 yuan/ton. The poor plasticizer market has suppressed the increase in phthalic anhydride, The market price trend of phthalic anhydride is fluctuating.

In the future, the price trend of ortho xylene is expected to rise in the short term, while the downstream plasticizer market has not changed much. The purchasing enthusiasm of the plasticizer industry is not high, and it is expected that the market price of ortho phthalic anhydride will remain stable in the short term, supported by strong raw materials.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of caustic soda continued to decline in the first half of 2023, and has rebounded since September 11th. On September 11th, the average market price in Shandong was 819 yuan/ton. On September 21st, the average market price in Shandong was 996 yuan/ton, and the price increased by 21.61% in 20 days.

On the supply side

From a supply perspective, from July to August, domestic caustic soda enterprises have a large number of equipment maintenance plans, and the supply is relatively insufficient, resulting in a shortage of spot goods. In addition, the operating rate has decreased, with data showing that the operating rate of caustic soda is around 83%. The inventory of liquid alkali production enterprises has been declining for 7 consecutive weeks, with the latest inventory of 271200 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons compared to the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 4.92%.

 
In terms of demand

From the perspective of downstream demand structure, China’s caustic soda consumption is mainly based on aluminum oxide, with the demand of the aluminum oxide industry accounting for about 31% of downstream consumption, followed by chemical industry, water treatment and medicine, papermaking, textile printing and dyeing, etc. In the first half of the year, the demand for alumina was average, but the demand for caustic soda was limited. Recently, downstream demand has increased, leading to an increase in demand for caustic soda. Recently, the spot price of alumina has increased, with an average gross profit of about 200 yuan/ton, which is the highest point in the past year. The largest downstream alumina production capacity of caustic soda is released, and the demand for chemical industry is relatively strong during the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” peak season, resulting in a significant increase in demand for caustic soda.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, from the perspective of supply and demand, the price of caustic soda has rebounded and may continue to rise in the short term. With the arrival of the “Golden Nine Silver Ten” policy, there is still a demand for stocking downstream. In addition, it is expected that there will be an additional 300000 to 400000 tons of production capacity in 2023, with an annual increase of around 2 to 2.1 million tons (see figure above). It is expected that there is still room for the spot price of caustic soda to rise after October, but the upward space is limited. With the increase of new production capacity, there may be pressure on the supply side. It is expected that the spot price will be lowered to a certain extent from November to December, depending on downstream market demand.

Recent price trends of tetrahydrofuran

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the price of tetrahydrofuran in the domestic market has slightly increased this week. This week, the average price of tetrahydrofuran in the mainstream domestic market increased from 13050.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 13175.00 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 0.96%. The weekend price decreased by 17.91% year-on-year.

Upstream support is good, while downstream demand increases

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have slightly increased this week, with average inventory levels.

From the upstream raw material market of tetrahydrofuran, the market for 1,4-butanediol has slightly declined this week, with prices dropping from 11642.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 11571.43 yuan/ton at the weekend, a decrease of 0.61%, and a year-on-year decrease of 16.75% over the weekend. The market situation of maleic anhydride has significantly increased this week, with the price rising from 7799.80 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 8499.80 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 8.97%. The weekend price has decreased by 1.39% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have slightly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the downstream market situation of tetrahydrofuran, the spandex market price has stabilized at a high level this week. The price of spandex is 34250.00 yuan/ton, with a year-on-year increase of 2.24% over the weekend. Downstream spandex market prices have stabilized at high levels, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Future prospects

In late September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream maleic anhydride market has seen a significant increase, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has stabilized at a high level, and downstream demand is good. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.

This week’s lead market (9.11-9.18) showed a “V” shaped trend, rising first and then falling. The average price in the domestic market was 16620 yuan/ton over the weekend and 16770 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, up 0.9%.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices uses the concept of a price trend K-line to reflect weekly or monthly price fluctuations in the form of a bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investments based on the changes in the K-bar chart. Red indicates an increase; Green indicates a decline; The height of the K-pillar indicates the range of rise and fall, and the recent market trend is relatively strong, with the lead ingot market rising for 10 consecutive weeks.

This week, the high volatility trend of Shanghai lead was the main trend, and macro data from the United States has performed well recently. The expectation of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates has declined, which is good for the metal market. On the supply and demand side, the recent operation of refineries has been relatively stable, with little change in both primary and secondary lead. The overall operating rate has slightly increased. In terms of demand, the performance of downstream batteries remains sluggish during the peak season, and the overall improvement of the consumer end is limited, but there is still immediate demand. Overall, the current market sentiment is good and the futures market has performed positively, supporting the high consolidation trend of lead prices. It is expected that in the short term, the gold nine silver ten expectations will still exist, and the overall high consolidation trend of lead prices will be the main trend.

On September 17th, the base metal index stood at 1238 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 23.39% from the cycle’s highest point of 1616 points (2022-03-09), and an increase of 92.83% from the lowest point of 642 points on November 24, 2015. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

According to the price monitoring of the Business Society, there were a total of 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector on the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 37th week of 2023 (September 11th to September 15th), with the top three commodities in terms of increase being metal silicon (3.89%), silver (2.72%), and zinc (2.39%). There are a total of four products that have decreased compared to the previous month, with nickel (-1.47%), praseodymium neodymium oxide (-1.41%), and cobalt (-0.39%) being the top three products in terms of decline. This week’s average increase or decrease was 0.59%.

According to monitoring data from Business Society, as of September 15, 2023, the domestic market price of organic silicon DMC was referenced at 14760 yuan/ton. Compared with September 10 (organic silicon DMC reference 13340 yuan/ton), the price increased by 1420 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.64%.

From the data monitoring chart of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (9.10-9.15), the domestic organic silicon DMC market as a whole showed a broad upward trend. Entering September, organic silicon DMC has finally ushered in the “Golden Nine Effect”. Downstream demand is expected to rebound overall, and the market is generally positive. In addition, the high cost side market provides increased cost support for organic silicon DMC. This week, Shandong large factories actively raised the price of organic silicon DMC, with an adjustment of over 1000 yuan per ton. Other factories and suppliers are also actively increasing under the drive of large factories, with some factories mainly closing orders for early delivery, Part of the orders have been arranged until mid October, and the on-site spot supply is tight. The overall atmosphere of the organic silicon DMC market is good, and the confidence of operators has increased. As of September 15th, the domestic organic silicon DMC market price reference is around 14700-15000 yuan/ton.

Prediction of the Future Trend of Organic Silicon DMC Market

At present, the trading atmosphere in the organic silicon DMC market is mild. After the market rapidly rises to high prices, some downstream companies are actively restocking for fear that the market will continue to chase high, while others are still worried and cautious in order replenishment. However, as the Double Festival approaches, downstream demand for organic silicon DMC will continue to stabilize and continue to recover. Therefore, the organic silicon DMC data analyst at the Business Society believes that in the short term, the domestic organic silicon DMC market prices will be more likely to recover

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, as of September 13th, the average price of industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises in China was 244000.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.01% compared to last Friday (September 8th) and a decrease of 49.34% compared to the same period last year.

Recently, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market has been operating weakly. Recently, the price of spodumene concentrate has fallen, and the lithium carbonate market is operating weakly, with poor cost support. Downstream demand is recovering slowly, and inquiry procurement continues to be in high demand. There is a strong cautious wait-and-see atmosphere, and enterprises still focus on long-term orders, with limited individual transactions. The focus of negotiations in the lithium hydroxide market is weak.

Upstream lithium carbonate: Recently, the industrial grade lithium carbonate market has continued to decline. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, on September 13th, the reference price for lithium carbonate industrial grade was 192600.00, a decrease of 8.29% compared to September 1st (210000.00), which lacks support for the lithium hydroxide market.

According to lithium hydroxide analysts from Business Society, the current weak cost support combined with weak demand has led to insufficient market atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic lithium hydroxide market may be in a weak state and more attention needs to be paid to market news guidance.

The domestic phenol market has shown a broad upward trend, with tight supply, cost support, and high average prices. Factories are actively raising prices. According to the analysis system of Business Society, the national market price was 9275 yuan/ton on September 11th, a daily increase of 11.32%

Average Price Trend of Phenol Market in Major Regions of China

The quotation of phenol in various markets across the country on September 11th is as follows:

Region/. Quotation./Day Up/Down

East China region/ 9250/250

Shandong region/ 9280./330

The surrounding area of Yanshan/ 9250/330

South China region/ 9450./400

The factory has raised the listing price in a centralized manner. Among them, Sinopec’s East China phenol quotation has been increased by 400 yuan/ton, implementing a price of 9200 yuan/ton, while Sinopec’s North China phenol quotation has been increased by 400 yuan/ton, implementing a price of 9200 yuan/ton. After multiple increases in factory prices, there was little spot pressure on the market, and traders were reluctant to sell and offer higher prices.

The cost support is strong, and the raw material market is rising. Pure benzene is negotiated at 8500-8650 yuan/ton, and downstream styrene profits have been restored, leading to an increase in factory procurement in the market. With the rapid rise of pure benzene to a high level in recent times, cost support has increased, and factory cost has increased. Actively raising prices is in line with market prices. Be cautious in chasing up high prices at the terminal, prioritize hard demand, and have limited trading volume.

From the perspective of the business community, the raw materials sector remained strong in September. Although domestic units Wanhua Chemical and Changchun Chemical have maintenance plans, downstream configuration units are also undergoing maintenance, which has little impact on market supply. Downstream phenolic resin is expected to weaken during the high temperature off-season, and demand may improve. It is expected that the market will remain strong in September and operate at a high level in the short term, with discussions ranging from 9250 to 9350 yuan/ton.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the market for trichloromethane has significantly increased. According to data from Business Society, as of September 11th, the price of trichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2450 yuan/ton, an increase of 9.13% from 2245 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. The raw material methanol fluctuates narrowly, the price of liquid chlorine drops slightly, and the cost support for trichloromethane weakens slightly; The overall inventory of chloroform enterprises is low, and the supply of goods in the region is tight, leading to a significant increase in factory prices; Downstream construction requires support at a low level.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the domestic methane chloride production has been basically normal, with an overall production rate of around 7.6%.

Recently (9.1-9.11), the high price of raw material methanol has stabilized, the price of liquid chlorine has decreased, and the cost support for trichloromethane has weakened. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of September 11th, the spot price of methanol was 2530 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% from 2551 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. As of September 11th, the acceptance price of liquid chlorine tank trucks in Shandong region has decreased overall from 500 yuan/ton at the end of August, at 300 yuan/ton.

The overall operating low and stable price of refrigerant R22 has slightly increased, with the main demand for support for trichloromethane. However, in 2023, the total production quota of R22 will be reduced by 19% to 181800 tons, and overall support for trichloromethane demand will weaken in the medium to long term.

Analysts from Business Society’s methane chloride data believe that supply and demand are still supported, and the cost side is still relatively high. It is expected that the trichloromethane market will continue to operate at a high level in the short term.

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of the Business Society, as of September 8th, the average price of PMMA, a general transparent and high-quality product in China, was 14625.00 yuan/ton. This week, PMMA prices remained stable and maintained the previous trend, with no significant price fluctuations. Downstream purchases were mainly for immediate needs.

This week, the domestic general transparent grade premium product PMMA has been operating smoothly, compared to the same period last week when prices remained stable. The purchasing atmosphere is cold, and downstream demand is average. Currently, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is still around 14600 yuan/ton. The operating rate is stable, and the overall market supply and demand is balanced. Factories are offering discounts and taking orders, and downstream purchases are just needed.

Rubber and Plastic Index: On September 7th, the rubber and plastic index reached 700 points, an increase of 1 point compared to yesterday, a decrease of 33.96% from the highest point in the cycle of 1060 points (2012-03-14), and an increase of 32.58% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1st, 2011 to the present).

PMMA analysts from Business Society believe that PMMA will mainly maintain stable operation in the short term.

According to the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, the spot price of styrene in Shandong fell first and then rose in August. At the beginning of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8650.00 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the spot price of styrene in Shandong was 8733.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.96%. The price has decreased by 2.15% compared to the same period last year.

styrene

The market price of styrene fell first and then rose in August. From the above figure, it can be seen that the price of styrene has been mainly increasing since July, and the increase in August was greater than the decrease. The main reason for the decline is the decline in international oil prices, poor cost support, and the decline in styrene market. The reason for the increase is the rise in international oil prices, good cost support, low styrene inventory, and a rising market.

In terms of raw materials, the price of pure benzene increased in August. The price of pure benzene in East China has increased in negotiations, and the industry expects that there will still be a shortage of imported goods arriving on ships in September. In addition, there will be a demand for National Day restocking in the downstream by the end of September, which will drive up spot prices in the far month. East China traders took profits, increased market circulation, and buying retreated. Shandong Refinery’s inventory is low, and the offer continues to rise.

On the downstream side, the three major downstream markets of styrene saw mixed fluctuations in August. At the beginning of this month, the average price of PS was 9166 yuan/ton, while at the end of the month, the average price of PS was 9466 yuan/ton, with a slight decrease of 3.27% and a decrease of 10.55% compared to the same period last year. PS cost support, it is expected that in the short term, domestic PS (polystyrene) may mainly experience a volatile trend.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of the Business Society, the price of EPS ordinary materials fluctuated and increased in August. At the beginning of the month, the average quotation of EPS ordinary materials was 9700.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 9850.00 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 1.52%. In August, domestic EPS prices were supported by costs, and it is expected that the domestic EPS market will mainly experience a narrow range upward trend.

The domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose in August. In August, the upstream three materials of ABS were consolidated steadily with strong support for the cost side of ABS. The start of petrochemical plants saw a narrow increase compared to the previous period, and market inventory continued to accumulate. On the demand side, support is weak, and the overall pattern of weak and rigid demand is maintained. It is expected that the ABS market may enter a stalemate.

At present, the inventory of commercial crude oil in the United States has significantly decreased, international oil prices continue to rise, cost support is strong, and at the end of the month, the market is seeking bargains to replenish the increment. The mentality of styrene industry is good, and it is expected that the short-term volatility and rise of the styrene market will be the main trend.

On Thursday night trading, butadiene rubber 2401 opened at 12250 yuan/ton, with a significant increase in intraday trading. It closed at 13295 yuan/ton on the limit up board, with an increase of 9.47%. The closing price has increased by 23.67% compared to the opening price of 10750 yuan/ton on the first day of listing on July 28th.

Since the listing of butadiene rubber futures one month ago, the spot market of butadiene rubber has also shown a significant upward trend. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the market price of butadiene rubber in East China was 11970 yuan/ton, an increase of 10.53% from 10830 yuan/ton on July 28. In August, the factory price of two barrels of oil butadiene rubber was gradually increased by 900 yuan/ton. As of August 31, the factory price of Daqing butadiene rubber of PetroChina Northeast Sales Company was 11800 yuan/ton, and the mainstream quotation range of domestic butadiene rubber was between 11700 and 12200 yuan/ton.

Industry Start Slightly Lowers Supply Side Pressure Relieves

Supply side: The overall construction of butadiene rubber in August slightly decreased.

Significant increase in raw material prices and cost support for the market of butadiene rubber

Since the end of July, the butadiene market has been rising, and the cost center of butadiene rubber has continued to rise. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31, the price of butadiene was 7626 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.90% from 7201 yuan/ton on July 28. At the beginning of the month, the prices of crude oil and naphtha rose, bringing a certain boost to the cost side. At the same time, some downstream product prices rose, and there was some support for the market demand side. Merchants’ expectations for demand were stronger, combined with the strong offer for distant cargo in the outer market, resulting in a high market atmosphere; At the end of the month, the prices of butadiene in various sales companies of Sinopec, the main production enterprise, were increased to 7600 yuan/ton. The short-term supply side of butadiene is affected by a bullish trend.

The increasing speed of natural rubber destocking provides support for rubber prices

Since the end of July, the natural rubber market has been fluctuating and consolidating, but the speed of inventory removal at the end of the month has accelerated, providing some support for natural rubber and butadiene rubber. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, as of August 31st, the price was at 12090 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.09% from 11960 yuan/ton on July 28th, and the low point during the cycle was at 11764 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the speed of natural rubber inventory destocking has increased rapidly. As of August 25, 2023, it is understood that the total inventory of bonded and general trade in Qingdao area is 824400 tons, a decrease of 100000 tons from 926000 tons on July 23 and a decrease of 70000 tons from 895100 tons on August 20.

Tire production slightly increased compared to July, requiring support for rubber storage capacity

Demand side: The tire operating rate in August slightly increased compared to July, with rubber as the main support. It is understood that as of late August 2023, the operating load of all steel tires for rubber tire enterprises in Shandong region is 6.4%; The operating load of semi steel tires for domestic rubber tire enterprises is 7.2%.

Recently, rubber prices have continued to rise, especially with a significant increase in rubber prices on August 31st. This is mainly due to the support of industry chain fundamentals such as rapid inventory decline and high cost levels; On the other hand, it is stimulated by rumors of large capital hoarding and the continuous rise of Japanese glue. Driven by multiple factors, rubber prices have surged significantly.

Future Forecast: Business Society analysts believe that the price of butadiene rubber raw materials is running high, and there is not much supply pressure. Coupled with the support of natural rubber destocking, it is expected that the spot market of butadiene rubber will remain strong in the short term. If the market rubber inventory continues to rapidly decline, the spot price of butadiene rubber will continue to rise.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market price slightly increased in August. The average price of mainstream tetrahydrofuran market in China increased from 12110.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 12975.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 7.14%. The price at the end of the month decreased by 12.48% year-on-year.

From the supply side perspective, the prices of mainstream domestic tetrahydrofuran distributors have increased this month, with average inventory levels.

From a cost perspective, the market price of 1,4-butanediol slightly increased in August, with the market price rising from 11042.86 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 11657.14 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 5.56%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 14.29% year-on-year. The market price of maleic anhydride increased significantly in August, with the price rising from 6480 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 7220 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 11.42%. At the end of the month, prices fell by 6.96% year-on-year. Overall, the upstream raw material market prices have significantly increased, with good cost support. Affected by the supply and demand side, it has a positive impact on the price of tetrahydrofuran.

From the demand side, the market price of spandex slightly increased in August. The price of spandex has increased from 33500.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 33625.00 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 0.37%. At the end of the month, prices increased by 2.83% year-on-year. Downstream spandex market prices have slightly increased, and downstream customers are actively purchasing tetrahydrofuran.

Looking at the future market: In mid to early September, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may experience slight fluctuations and gains. The upstream market for maleic anhydride and 1,4-butanediol has significantly increased, with good cost support. The downstream spandex market has slightly increased, and downstream demand has increased. Business Society tetrahydrofuran analysts believe that in the short term, the domestic tetrahydrofuran market may fluctuate slightly and rise mainly due to various factors such as supply and demand and raw materials.